Ocean Engineering 88 (2014) 499–507

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Ocean Engineering
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/oceaneng

Predictive reliability assessment of suction caissons for moored

floating systems
Claudia Rendón-Conde, Ernesto Heredia-Zavoni n
Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo, Eje Central Lázaro Cárdenas 152, México D.F. 07730, Mexico

art ic l e i nf o a b s t r a c t

Article history: A procedure for assessing the predictive reliability of suction caissons under inclined loads from mooring
Received 27 February 2013 lines of floating systems is developed. It considers the randomness of the maximum dynamic tension in
Accepted 22 June 2014 the mooring lines during extreme sea states. Parameters of the probability distribution of the maximum
Available online 31 July 2014
dynamic line tension are expressed as function of the uncertain extreme sea-state variables employing
Keywords: response surfaces. Line tensions from catenary and taut-leg mooring models are considered for the
Predictive reliability response surfaces. Reliability analyses are performed at the mudline, so that loading and caisson capacity
Parameter uncertainty can be considered statistically independent. Load capacity is modeled using the plastic limit method
Nested reliability considering suction caissons in normally consolidated clays and response surfaces for capacity are
Response surfaces
generated in terms of geotechnical variables. A nested reliability formulation is presented employing an
Suction caissons
auxiliary limit state function which is solved numerically applying FORM. The influence of geotechnical
Mooring systems
variables on the predictive failure probability is studied. Also, the effect of accounting for parameter
uncertainty in the loading on the reliability assessment of suction caissons is evaluated.
& 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Suction caissons are widely used as anchors for floating
systems in the offshore oil and gas industry, from shallow to deep
waters. Their main function is to anchor the mooring lines of a
floating system to the seabed under severe and normal environ-
mental conditions. Some of the advantages that favor the use of
suction caissons are their short installation times and better
control on their positioning. Suction caissons are a critical compo-
nent of moored floating systems and appropriate formulations are
needed to assess their reliability; particularly in deep waters
where taut-leg moorings have become a preferred solution due
to their greater stiffness and significantly smaller footprint. In
taut-leg moorings, the vertical capacity of the soil-caisson system
may determine the failure mechanism and hence its overall
capacity, whereas for catenary systems this is predominantly given
by the horizontal capacity. Improved approaches are needed for
estimating the reliability of such critical components of moored
floating systems, as well as for calibration of partial safety factors
and development of design criteria.
Few studies are available on the reliability assessment of suction
caissons employed for floating systems in oil production facilities. In a
n
Correspondence to: Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo, Eje Central Lázaro
Cárdenas Norte 152, México D.F., C.P. 07730, Mexico. Fax: þ52 55 9175 8258.
E-mail address: eheredia@imp.mx (E. Heredia-Zavoni).
pioneering study, Clukey et al. (2000) used a simple linear limit
state equation in terms of a single load and caisson capacity. The
load was expressed in terms of significant wave height using an
empirical function calibrated to response data from a Spar plat-
form. To simplify the reliability analyses, a linear empirical func-
tion was used to model the horizontal capacity of suction caissons
as a function of the soil's undrained shear strength; for the vertical
capacity, simple analytical formulations were employed. Later on,
under the assumption that both caisson capacity and loading are
lognormal random variables, Choi et al. (2006) developed an
analytical formulation that expresses the failure probability as a
function of a median design safety factor and the bias and
coefficients of variation of load and capacity. A relevant contribu-
tion of Choi's work is that he formulates the limit state equation
at the mudline rather than at the caisson's padeye; in this way
chain-interaction effects are accounted for in the assessment of
the soil–caisson capacity, which can then be considered statisti-
cally independent of the mooring line loads. The formulation was
applied using biases and coefficients of variation of mooring-line
tensions estimated from response analysis of a Spar platform at
different water depths; biases and coefficients variation of caisson
capacity were characterized based on experimental data and use
of the plastic limit method (Aubeny et al., 2003a, 2003b, 2003c).
Following the design formulation in DNV-RP-E303 (2005),
Valle-Molina et al. (2008) explicitly considered the mean and the
dynamic components of the mooring line tensions in the limit
state equation. These tension components were expressed in

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2014.06.026
0029-8018/& 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
500 C. Rendón-Conde, E. Heredia-Zavoni / Ocean Engineering 88 (2014) 499–507
terms of uncertain metocean variables using response surfaces
developed for the catenary mooring of an FPSO model. Weibull
distributions were fitted for the mean and the maximum dynamic
line tensions using the response surfaces and simulated values of
the metocean variables. The caisson capacity at the padeye was
simulated using the plastic limit method considering an uncertain
gradient for the linear variation of the undrained shear strength
with depth. Reliability estimates were obtained from Monte Carlo
simulation neglecting the soil-chain interaction effect. More
recently, Silva-González et al. (2012) also used response surfaces
and modeled the mean tension and the expected maximum
dynamic tension for catenary and taut-leg mooring lines. They
formulated the limit state equation at the mudline. First, the
caisson capacity at the padeye was simulated applying the plastic
limit method and simulations of a number of uncertain variables
such as the undrained shear strength gradient, the line tension
angle at the padeye, and some geotechnical parameters employed
in the plastic limit method. Capacity values at the mudline were
then computed accounting for the soil-chain interaction effect and
lognormal distributions were fitted. Reliability was assessed using
FORM and sets of partial safety factors were calibrated for catenary
and taut-leg moorings.
As noticed, the reliability assessment of suction caissons
involves dealing with the probabilistic modeling of tension load
components in the mooring lines, which depend on the metocean
variables, the probabilistic modeling of geotechnical variables and
assessment of caisson capacity, and the modeling of chain-
interaction effects, which modify line tensions from the dip-
down point at mudline to the caisson's padeye. Furthermore, since
the failure mechanism and capacity of the caisson–soil system
depends on the loading angle, the reliability assessments ought to
consider the type of mooring system. Also, the relative influence of
the mean and dynamic components of line tension, which varies
depending on the type of mooring system, should be accounted
for. Current practice standards such as DNV-RP-E303 (2005),
where partial safety factors have been calibrated to target reli-
abilities, do not distinguish between the types of mooring system.
In DNV-RP-E303 (2005), safety factors for caisson capacity are to
be applied for line tensions using the same safety factors used in
mooring design (DNV, 2001).
The approaches used in previous studies have introduced
different simplifying assumptions to deal with the probabilistic
modeling of capacity and loading. In this study, we use random
vibration theory to model the probability distribution of the
maximum dynamic line tension during extreme sea states of given
duration. This probability distribution depends on three para-
meters: the standard deviation and mean number of cycles of
the dynamic tension in the mooring lines, and the shape para-
meter of the dynamic tension power spectrum. We employ
response surfaces to model the dependency of these distribution
parameters on uncertain metocean variables such as the signifi-
cant wave height, wave peak period and wind velocity, which
define the extreme sea-states. Consequently, the maximum
Floating
system
Mooring
lines
Mudline
Suction
caisson Soil
Fig. 1. (a) The Mooring system and (b) the soil–caisson system subjected to inclined loading at padeye.
dynamic tension is a random variable with uncertain distribution
parameters. The reliability analysis of the suction caisson thus
involves parameter uncertainties which can be taken into account
using a nested reliability formulation. The predictive probability of
failure, which is a measure of reliability that takes into considera-
tion parameter uncertainties, and the corresponding predictive
reliability index, are therefore computed. Capacity is modeled
employing the plastic limit method and considering the following
uncertain variables: the shear strength gradient, the line tension
angle at the padeye, the side shear factor and the reverse-end
bearing factor. Chain-interaction effects are taken into account to
assess the caisson capacity at the mudline. The mean component
of mooring tension is given in terms of significant wave height,
spectral peak period and wind velocity by means of response
surfaces. Models of mean and maximum dynamic line tensions for
both catenary and taut-leg mooring systems are considered. The
effect of main geotechnical variables on the caisson reliability is
studied. Also, results of the predictive failure probability are
compared to estimates of failure probabilities obtained using
simplified models of the limit state function.
2. Limit state function
Consider a suction caisson in normally consolidated clay sub-
jected to inclined loads from mooring lines due to extreme sea
states, as shown schematically in Fig. 1. Loads are applied at the
padeye of the caisson, typically located at 2/3 of its length in order
to maximize its capacity and also to prevent a rotational failure
mode. Modeling the loads and the capacity at the padeye requires
accounting for the so called soil–chain interaction effect between
the dip-down point at the mudline and the caisson's padeye.
As discussed in Choi et al. (2006), although design procedures
consider assessing both the pile capacity and the applied loads at
the padeye, it is rather advantageous to formulate the limit state
function at the mudline. On one hand, the probabilistic character-
ization of the tension loads in a mooring line is given at the
dip-down point at mudline. On the other hand, the soil–chain
interaction effect can be considered in the assessment of the
suction capacity at the mudline. In this way it is more reasonable
to assume that the mooring line tensions and the caisson capacity
at mudline are statistically independent variables. Assuming
statistical independence at the padeye seems less reasonable,
and taking it into account would increase the complexity of the
reliability analysis (Choi, 2007).
Let Θ denote the vector of uncertain metocean variables
describing the environmental conditions in extreme sea states
(e.g. significant wave height, spectral peak period, wind speed, etc.)
and Γ the vector of uncertain geotechnical variables associated with
the caisson capacity (e.g. undrained shear strength gradient of soil,
side shear factor, etc). For Θ ¼ θ; Γ ¼ γ, the ultimate limit state
function at the dip-down point where the mooring line penetrates
Chain Line
tension at
Suction mudline
caisson
Soil Padeye
Applied
load
 C. Rendón-Conde, E. Heredia-Zavoni / Ocean Engineering 88 (2014) 499–507
the soil is
gðγ; θÞ ¼ rðγÞ  t m ðθÞ  T d ðθÞ
where rðγÞ is the caisson capacity, t m ðθÞ is the mean line tension,
and T d ðθÞ is the maximum dynamic line tension during an extreme
sea-state of duration s, which is induced by low-frequency and
wave-frequency motions. The caisson capacity RðΓÞ and the mean
line tension T m ðΘÞ are uncertain variables with known probability
distributions provided the distributions of Γ and Θ are known.
Following random vibration theory, the probability distribution of
the maximum dynamic tension, T d ðθÞ, in a random sea-state of
duration s defined by environmental variables Θ, is (Vanmarcke,
1975)
" !# " pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi 1:2
x2 1 exp ð π =2qΘ ðx=σ Θ ÞÞ
F T d ðxjΘÞ ¼ 1  exp  2 exp  νΘ Δt
2σ Θ exp ðx2 =2σ 2Θ Þ 1
where the standard deviation and the mean crossing rate of the
dynamic tension, σ Θ ¼ σ ðΘÞ, νΘ ¼ νðΘÞ, as well as the shape para-
meter of the dynamic tension power spectrum, qΘ ¼ qðΘÞ, are all
functions of the uncertain metocean variables Θ. The shape parameter
qΘ is defined in terms of the first three moments of the dynamic
tension power spectrum, λi i¼ 1,2,3, which also depend on Θ,
sffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
λ21
qΘ ¼ 1
λ0 λ2
Underlying Eq. (2) is the assumption that the dynamic tension
in a mooring line is a Gaussian random process, which has been
used in reliability analyses of mooring lines based on statistics of
time-domain response analysis of mooring systems (Choi et al.,
2006) and on the basis that generally sea waves are considered to
be Gaussian processes and that the dynamic tension in mooring
lines is primarily governed by the first-order response (Sakar and
Eatock Taylor, 2000).
3. Nested reliability formulation
From the limit state function in Eq. (1), the conditional prob-
ability of suction caisson failure “F” given Γ ¼ γ and Θ ¼ θ is
PrðFjθ; γÞ ¼ 1  Pr½T d ðθÞ o rðγÞ  t m ðθÞ
hence,
PrðFjθ; γÞ ¼ 1  F T d f½rðγÞ  t m ðθÞjθg
~ can then be expressed as
The probability of caisson failure, p,
Z Z
p~ ¼ PrðFjθ; γÞf Θ ðθÞf Γ ðγÞdθ dγ ð6Þ
γ θ
where f Γ ðγÞ and f Θ ðθÞ are the joint probability densities of Γ and
Θ, respectively. p~ in Eq. (6) is the so-called predictive failure
probability which is defined as the expectation of the conditional
probability of failure (Der Kiureghian, 2008). The predictive failure
probability can be computed using an auxiliary limit-state func-
tion (Wen and Chen, 1987).
~ θ; uÞ ¼ u þ βðθ; γÞ
gð
where u is a realization of an independent standard normal
variable U and βðθ; γÞ is the conditional reliability index of the
original problem,
βðθ; γÞ ¼ Φ  1 ½1  PrðFjΘ ¼ θ; Γ ¼ γÞ
From Eqs. (7) and (8), the auxiliary limit state function for
suction caisson reliability analysis is then
~ θ; γ; uÞ ¼ u þ Φ  1 ½F T d ððrðγÞ t m ðθÞÞjΘ ¼ θÞ
gð
501
One can first determine the conditional reliability in Eq. (8) and
then solve the reliability problem in Eq. (7), giving rise to a nested
ð1Þ
reliability analysis. This approach is particularly appealing if the
conditional problem in Eq. (8) has a closed-form solution. The
reliability problem using the auxiliary limit state function in
Eq. (9) can be solved applying established reliability methods such
as FORM.
4. Probabilistic modeling of suction caisson capacity
# Suction pile models for this study were selected from those
designed in Silva-González et al. (2012) for loads from a catenary
; x40
mooring system following DNV-RP-E303 (2005) guidelines for
ð2Þ consequence class 2 representing unacceptable failure conse-
quences. In that work the pile models have the padeye located
at 2/3 the pile length and were designed considering a character-
istic linear profile of undrained shear strength gradient
Su1 ¼1.60 kPa/m, and the characteristic line tensions at mudline
from a catenary mooring systems of an FPSO model developed a
site in the Bay of Campeche, Gulf of Mexico, at 630 m water depth.
Table 1 lists design loading parameters of the catenary mooring
such as the characteristic values of mean tension, Tm-C, and mean
ð3Þ maximum dynamic tension, μTd-C, for 100 year return period sea
states, the design line tensions, TC, and the corresponding line
angles at mudline, θo. For this study we have selected two suction
pile models: (1) L/D ¼4 and diameter 4 m; and (2) L/D ¼6 and
diameter 3 m.
Response surfaces were fitted for pile capacity at mudline as a
function of four variables to be considered uncertain in the
reliability analysis: the undrained shear strength gradient (Su1),
the side shear factor (α), the reverse-end bearing factor (Nab), and
the line tension angle at the mudline (θa). Capacity was evaluated
first at the padeye using a plastic limit model. The plastic limit
analytical model is an upper bound plasticity solution according to
plasticity theory (Chen and Liu, 1990). It was originally developed
for pure lateral loading of caissons (Murff and Hamilton, 1993) and
was extended for the case of inclined loading of suction caissons
by Aubeny et al. (2003a, 2003b, 2003c). The method applies for the
ð4Þ conditions of normally consolidated clay deposits with undrained
shear strength (Su) varying linearly with depth. A summary of the
method and the fundamental equations are given in Appendix A.
ð5Þ After the capacity was evaluated at the padeye, the formulation
developed by Neubecker and Randolph (1995a, 1995b) was then
used to assess the soil–chain interaction effect and compute the
corresponding capacity at mudline; Table 2 shows the parameters
involved in the assessment of soil–chain interaction. Response
surfaces were developed for the two suction caisson models.
Capacity values were computed for combinations of the following
values: (1) undrained shear strength gradient (Su1) from 1.0 to
2.0 kPa/m varying in increments of 0.2 kPa/m; (2) side shear factor
(α) from 0.6 to 1.0 varying in increments of 0.05; (3) reverse-end
bearing factor (Nab) from 8 to 20 varying in increments of 1; and
(4) line tension angle at the padeye (θa) from 0 to 901 varying in
ð7Þ increments of 101. Thus a total of 7020 values of capacity resulting
from these combinations were used for fitting the caisson capacity
response surfaces.
Table 1
ð8Þ Mooring system characteristic and design tensions.
Mooring systems Tm-C (kN) μTd-C (kN) TC (kN) θ0 (deg)
Catenary 2871 2277 8801 1
ð9Þ Taut-leg 6200 2129 13152 36
502 C. Rendón-Conde, E. Heredia-Zavoni / Ocean Engineering 88 (2014) 499–507

Second order polynomial expansions including crossed-terms be obtained by regression analysis (Raiffa and Schlaifer, 1961)
were used for the response surfaces,
α ¼ m  1 ΦT y^ ð11Þ
rðγÞ ¼ c þ a γ þ γ bγ
T T
ð10Þ
where m ¼ Φ Φ.
T

where c, a (r  1), b (r  r) are the unknown coefficients to be
determined. Let y^ denote the vector of capacity values evaluated
for n combinations of values of the basic variables Su1, α, Nab, θa,
and Φ a matrix containing all linear, quadratic and crossed-term
combinations of the values considered for the basic variables.
Vector α of estimates of the polynomial coefficients in Eq. (10) can
Table 2
Parameters for soil–chain interaction formulation.
Bar diameter, db: mm
Effective width of bar diameter, b
Friction coefficient, μ
Bearing capacity of chain, Nc
Maximum value of undrained bearing capacity factor, Nc max
A lognormal distribution, which is defined for variables that
take positive values only, was assumed for the undrained shear
strength gradient Su1, with varying mean values and a coefficient
of variation δSu1 ¼ 0.20 is taken based on possible values indicated
by Clukey et al. (2000) depending on methods and sampling
techniques used; this random variable is to account for uncertainty
due to systematic test variations as well as spatial variability in the
soil properties. Nab and α are modeled using a bivariate lognormal
distribution, with varying mean values and the following para-
meters: coefficients of variation δα ¼0.2, δNab ¼ 0.25, and correla-
tion coefficient ρ ¼  0.8; this joint distribution accounts for
133.35 uncertainty in the actual capacity compared to the design capacity,
2.5 db and is based on comparisons of measured and predicted capacities
0.4
(Luke et al., 2003; El-Sherbiny, 2005; Najjar, 2005). The values for
5.1
9.0
α and Nab are negatively correlated considering that capacity
increases with any of them. The load angle at the padeye was

6550
3100 6500
t m (θ) [kN]

6450
3050
6400
t m (θ) [kN]

3000 6350
2950 6300
6250
2900
6200
2850 13 14
14 14 13
13 15
14 13 Tp [s 16 12
15 11 ]
16 12 ]
17
Hs [m
Tp [s] 11 ]
17 Hs [m

1800 1400
σΘ = σ(Θ) [kN]

σΘ = σ(Θ) [kN]

1600
1200
1400
1200 1000
1000
800
800
600 600
13 14 13 14
14 13 14 13
15 12 15
Tp [s 16 Tp [s 16 12
] ] 11 ]
] 11
17 Hs [m 17 Hs [m

130 120

120
110
N = ν(Θ)s
N = ν(Θ)s

110
100
100
90
90

80 80
13 14 13 14
14 13 14 13
15 15
16 12 ] Tp [s 16 12
Tp [s] Hs [m ]
11
17
] 11
17
Hs [m

Fig. 2. Response surfaces for t m ðθÞ, σ Θ ¼ σ ðΘÞ, and N ¼ νðΘÞs: (a) the Catenary mooring system and (b) the Taut-Leg mooring system.
 C. Rendón-Conde, E. Heredia-Zavoni / Ocean Engineering 88 (2014) 499–507 503

modeled as θa ¼ μθa þ Δθa , where Δθa is a zero-mean normal
random variable with standard deviation equal to 21, and the
mean value μθa was estimated based on the design loads.
5. Probabilistic modeling of environmental loading
In addition to the loading from the catenary mooring of the
FPSO model at 630 m, we have considered for the reliability
assessment the loading from a taut-leg mooring system developed
for the environmental conditions of a second site at 1565 m water
depth in the Bay of Campeche, Gulf of Mexico. Characteristic and
mean values of the taut-leg mooring loading and line angle at
mudline are listed in Table 1. We use the response surfaces
developed by Flores (2012) to express t m ðθÞ, σ Θ ¼ σ ðΘÞ, and
νΘ ¼ νðΘÞ in terms of significant wave height (Hs), spectral peak
period (Tp), and wind velocity (U10) using second order poly-
nomial expansions as in Eq. (10). These response surfaces were
computed using response analysis data of the catenary and taut-
leg mooring systems of the FPSO model developed for the two
sites at 630 m and 1565 m water depth in the Bay of Campeche
(Silva-González et al., 2012). Each mooring system consists of four
clusters of three lines each, symmetrically distributed around the
hull turret. Response data for the most loaded line section at
mudline was used for estimation of the response surfaces. Fig. 2
shows the response surfaces of t m ðθÞ, σ Θ ¼ σ ðΘÞ, and N ¼ νðΘÞs in

βannual
βannual

Fig. 3. Predictive failure probability; the caisson model L/D ¼ 4 and the catenary Fig. 4. Predictive reliability index; the caisson model L/D ¼4 and the catenary
mooring system. (a) μNab ¼ 8 and (b) μNab ¼ 15. mooring system. (a) μNab ¼ 8 and (b) μNab ¼15.

Table 3
Parameters of the joint distribution of environmental variables.

Variables Probability distribution Distribution parameters Site 1 (630 m) Site 2 (1565 m)

Hs 3-parameter Weibull Scale 2.4587 2.0806

Shape 1.4696 1.2052
Location 4 4

Tp Lognormal μln Tp 2.4337 2.4090

σln Tp 0.1189 0.1178

U10 Lognormal μln U10 2.8028 2.7860

σln U10 0.1629 0.1597
2 3 2 3
Correlation matrix ΘT ¼{Hs,Tp,U10} 1:00 sym 1:00 sym
6 7 6 7
C ΘΘ ¼ 4 0:6714 1:00 5 C ΘΘ ¼ 4 0:7485 1:00 5
0:7732 0:1446 1:00 0:7910 0:3990 1:00
504 C. Rendón-Conde, E. Heredia-Zavoni / Ocean Engineering 88 (2014) 499–507
terms of significant wave height and peak spectral period. Mar-
ginal and joint probability distributions of the environmental
variables, estimated from hurricane and winter storm hindcast
data for the two sites in the Bay of Campeche, were used (Montes-
Iturrizaga et al., 2012). Table 3 lists the parameters of the prob-
ability distribution models.
6. Reliability analysis
The predictive failure probability p~ was computed using the
auxiliary limit state function in Eq. (9) and FORM. Annual failure
probabilities p~ a were calculated assuming a Poisson model for the
occurrence of extreme storm events,
p~ a ¼ 1 exp ð  λpÞ
~ ð12Þ
where λ is the mean annual rate of extreme sea states. Maximum
likelihood estimates of the mean annual rate λ are 54/41 ¼1.32 per
year for the Bay of Campeche site at 630 m, and 58/41 ¼1.41 per
year for the site at 1565 m.
Figs. 3 and 4 show the variation of failure probability p~ and
reliability index β~ ¼  Φ ðpÞ
1
~ versus the mean shear strength
gradient, μSu1 , as function of the mean side factor μα , for the caisson
model L/D¼4 and the catenary mooring system. It is seen that the
mean shear strength gradient has a significant effect on p. ~ Failure
probability for μSu1 ¼ 2 kPa=m is 15–20% that when μSu1 ¼ 1:6
kPa=m. The failure probability is less sensitive to the mean side
factor: for given μSu1 , p~ decreases about 55% if μα varies from 0.6 to
1.0. The mean reverse-end bearing factor μNab is not a dominant
p annual
p annual
Fig. 5. Predictive failure probability; the caisson model L/D ¼ 6 and the catenary
mooring system. (a) μNab ¼ 8 and (b) μNab ¼15.
parameter: in the most severe case increasing significantly μNab
from 8 to 15 decreases the failure probability by at most 15%.
Figs. 5 and 6 show results for caisson model L/D ¼6 and catenary
mooring system. The relative effect of μSu1 , μα , and μNab on the
failure probability is similar to that for caisson model L/D ¼4. It is
seen that p~ for model L/D ¼4, D ¼4 m is about 75% that for model
L/D ¼6, D¼ 3 m. Figs. 4 and 6 show that, under catenary mooring
loading, the reliability index β~ varies from 3.1 to 3.9 for mean
values of shear strength gradient varying between 1.6 and 2 kPa/
m, side factor varying between 0.6 and 1.0, and reverse-end factor
varying between 8 and 15.
The variation of p~ and β~ versus μSu1 as function of μα are shown
in Figs. 7 and 8 for suction caisson L/D¼4 and the taut-leg mooring
system. It can be seen that failure probabilities may be very high –
in the order of 10  1 and 10  2 – and consequently reliability
indexes are significantly low. The case of caisson model L/D¼ 6 is
even more critical and also very high failure probabilities were
obtained under taut-leg mooring loading. On one hand this is due
to greater overall tension loads in the mooring lines for the taut-
leg system. On the other hand these results show the influence of
the inclination angle of mooring loads. Under the greater inclina-
tion angles of the taut-leg system, the caisson failure mechanism is
determined by the vertical component of capacity, thus reducing
the ultimate capacity of the suction caisson in comparison to case
of mainly horizontal loading in catenary moorings. In order to
achieve failure probabilities in the order of 10  5–10  4 for the
taut-leg mooring system, greater caisson dimensions are required.
Notice that regarding the influence of end bearing capacity other
possible anchoring solutions may be used to take primarily vertical
βannual
βannual
Fig. 6. Predictive reliability index; caisson model L/D ¼ 6 and the catenary mooring
system. (a) μNab ¼ 8 and (b) μNab ¼15.
 C. Rendón-Conde, E. Heredia-Zavoni / Ocean Engineering 88 (2014) 499–507 505

loading; such one example option is the use of suction installed

plate anchors (Cassidy et al., 2012; Yang et al., 2012).
Since the axial capacity of suction caisson is more relevant for
the taut leg system, the results in Figs. 7 and 8 show that the mean
reverse-end bearing factor μNab has now a greater effect on the
failure probability as compared to the case of catenary mooring.
For instance, an increase in μNab from 8 to 15 reduces the failure

βannual
probability by about 80% for all considered values of μSu1 and
μα ¼ 0:8. The mean side factor is also more relevant in this case
and a greater decrease in failure probability is obtained with
increasing values of μα . The failure probability decreases by about
70% when μα increases from 0.6 to 1.0, and by about 85% when the
mean shear strength gradient μSu1 increases from 1.6 to 2.0 kPa/m.
The results from the nested reliability analyses in Eq. (9) were
compared to probabilities of failure obtained using a simplified
formulation of the limit state function, as follows:

g 1 ðr; θÞ ¼ r  t m ðθÞ  μT d ðθÞ ð13Þ

where the caisson capacity r is not expressed as a function of the

geotechnical variables, and the maximum dynamic tension T d ðθÞ
has been substituted by its mean value μT d ðθÞ. Solving the
reliability problem using the limit state function in (13) is an
easier task than that in Eq. (1) since it does not involve a nested
reliability analysis and can be carried out straightforwardly using
standard reliability methods. Although simpler to solve, the limit

βannual
state function in Eq. (13) only considers the expected maximum
dynamic tension and cannot account for its dispersion or uncer-
tainty. Following the approach in Silva-González et al. (2012),
samples of suction caisson capacity were generated employing the

Fig. 8. Predictive reliability index; the caisson model L/D ¼4 and the taut-leg
mooring system. (a) μNab ¼ 8 and (b) μNab ¼15.
p annual

plastic limit method with simulations of the undrained shear

strength gradient (Su1), the side shear factor (α), the reverse-end
bearing factor (Nab), and the line tension angle at the padeye (θa).
The probability distributions described before for these random
variables were used for the simulations. Using maximum like-
lihood estimators, lognormal distributions were fitted to simulated
samples of caisson capacity at mudline for various values of mean
undrained shear strength, mean side factor and mean reverse-end
bearing factor. For each case, it was noted that 5000 simulations
were enough to characterize reasonably well the probability
distribution of capacity. For the mean maximum dynamic tension
we used response surfaces developed for the two types of mooring
systems of the FPSO model (Flores, 2012; Montes-Iturrizaga et al.,
2012). Failure probabilities P f were then obtained using FORM.
Figs. 9 and 10 show a comparison of the failure probability P f
and the predictive failure probability p~ as function of μα , for
p annual

μSu1 ¼ 1:7 kPa=m and catenary and taut-leg moorings, respectively.

Fig. 7. Predictive failure probability; the caisson model L/D ¼4 and the taut-leg
mooring system. (a) μNab ¼ 8 and (b) μNab ¼ 15.
The results show that for typical values of μNab ¼ 9 and μα varying
from 0.6 to 1.0, there can be significant differences between P f and
~ for instance, for the catenary mooring case, p~ of both suction
p;
caisson models is about 6 times as large as P f . For model L/D ¼4
and taut-leg mooring system, the predictive failure probability p~
can be one order of magnitude greater than failure probability P f .
These results show the influence of accounting for parameter
uncertainties in the probability distribution of the maximum
dynamic tension when computing p~ using the nested reliability
formulation showed here; such influence can be assessed as a
506 C. Rendón-Conde, E. Heredia-Zavoni / Ocean Engineering 88 (2014) 499–507

1E-01 1E+01

1E-02 1E+00

1E-01
1E-03
Pfannual

Pfannual
1E-02
1E-04
1E-03
1E-05
1E-04

1E-06
0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1E-05
0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1

1E-01
1E+02

1E-02
1E+01

1E-03
Pfannual

1E+00

Pfannual
1E-04
1E-01

1E-05
1E-02

1E-06
0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1E-03
0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1

Fig. 9. Comparison of failure probabilities using alternative limit state equation;

the catenary mooring system. (a) L/D ¼ 4 and (b) L/D¼ 6 Fig. 10. Comparison of failure probabilities using alternative limit state equation;
Taut-leg mooring system. (a) L/D ¼ 4 and (b) L/D ¼6.

result of having modeled the maximum dynamic line tension in
the limit state equation.
7. Conclusions
The predictive failure probability and predictive reliability
index, as measures of reliability that take into consideration
parameter uncertainties, have been computed for suction caissons
in moored floating systems. The maximum dynamic tension in the
mooring lines has been modeled using random vibration theory.
Its probability distribution parameters have been expressed as
functions of the uncertain metocean variables describing extreme
sea states employing response surfaces. A nested reliability for-
mulation was used to deal with the uncertain parameters of the
probability distribution of maximum dynamic tension in the limit
state equation and assessed the predictive failure probability.
Reliability analyses were performed considering both mooring
line tensions and capacity of the caisson at the mudline, where
they are considered statistically independent. Samples of caisson
capacity were generated at mudline using the plastic limit method
and second order polynomial expansions were fitted to develop
response surfaces of caisson capacity at mudline as a function of
the following uncertain variables: the shear strength gradient, the
line tension angle at the padeye, the side shear factor and the
reverse-end bearing factor.
Reliability analyses were conducted using response surfaces
derived for catenary and taut-leg mooring loading parameters of
an FPSO model designed for two deep water sites in the southern
Gulf of Mexico, and probability distributions of significant wave
height, spectral peak period, and wind velocity fitted to hurricane
and winter storm hindcast data for those sites. The effect of
geotechnical variables on the predictive failure probability was
studied. The mean undrained shear strength gradient was found
to be the dominant variable in the predictive reliability of the
suction caissons analyzed. The predictive reliability of the caisson
is more sensitive to the mean side shear factor for a catenary
mooring system and to the mean end-bearing factor for taut leg
systems. Considerably higher predictive failure probabilities were
obtained for the caissons under taut-leg mooring loading, as
compared to the case of catenary moorings. This is due to the
greater overall tension loads in the mooring lines for the taut-leg
system, and to the loading angle and the lower overall loading
resistance of the caisson associated with the vertical component
of capacity. Bear in mind however that from the point of view of
system reliability in an accidental limit state, a taut-leg system
may have larger system redundancy. Choi (2007) has shown that
under hurricane environmental conditions, the conditional fail-
ure probability of a second line given failure of a first line, is
significantly smaller in taut-leg systems compared to semi-taut
systems. This is due to a greater effect of pretension loads and
less variance of the dynamic loading in the case of taut-leg
systems. Failure of station keeping due to successive mooring line
failures following failure of the most heavily loaded mooring line
were observed in MODUs (Mobile Offshore Drilling Units) in the
Gulf of Mexico after the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons; no
suction caisson failures were however reported (Sharples, 2004;
Choi, 2007).
 C. Rendón-Conde, E. Heredia-Zavoni / Ocean Engineering 88 (2014) 499–507
The reliability formulation used in this work takes into account
the randomness of the maximum dynamic tension in the mooring
lines during extreme sea states. However, other such issues as the
likelihood of a caisson failure mechanism developing under the
relatively short duration of the maximum dynamic load are not
accounted for; dynamic time domain analysis could be performed
to take such effects into account, but they are rarely or ever
performed in design procedures.
Significant differences were found between values of the pre-
dictive failure probability and failure probabilities assessed without
due consideration of uncertain parameters in the probabilistic
modeling of the dynamic loading. Other parameter uncertainties
such as those related to the modeling of caisson capacity may be
relevant as well. The assessment of reliability uncertainty due to
parameter uncertainties is beyond the scope of this work. Use of a
first order formulation for the mean and variance of the uncertain
reliability index could be explored. It could be based on the mean
values and covariance matrix of the uncertain parameters and the
sensitivity vector of the reliability index to the uncertain para-
meters. Under certain assumptions such first order formulation
could be used to assess the predictive reliability index as suggested
by Der Kiureghian (2008). The assessment of reliability uncertainty
due to parameter uncertainties should be the subject of future
studies.
Appendix A. Plastic limit model
The plastic limit analytical model was originally developed for
pure lateral loading of caissonss (Murff and Hamilton, 1993) and
extended for the case of inclined loading of suction caissons by
Aubeny et al. (2003a, 2003b, 2003c). The model is valid for the
conditions of normally consolidated clay deposits with undrained
shear strength (Su) varying linearly with depth. Let Lf denote the
caisson total length, Li the depth to padeye measured from mud-
line, θa the loading angle at the padeye with respect to the
horizontal plane, W the caisson net weight, and z denote depth.
The caisson rotates with angular velocity β around a rotation
center located at length L0; V0 is the lateral velocity at the mudline,
V0 ¼ βLo, and the axial velocity Va is a fraction of V0, i.e. Va ¼ ξV0.
The analytical expressions obtained by Aubeny et al. (2003a,
2003b, 2003c) are given as follows: for estimating the horizontal
(H) and vertical (V) components of the caisson capacity,
R Lf
ðF ls j1  ðz=L0 Þj þF as ξÞdz þ ðM b =L0 Þ þ V b ξ  ðM 0 =L0 Þ þ W ξ
H¼ 0
ξ tan θa þ j1  Li =L0 j
ðA:1Þ
V ¼ H tan θa ðA:2Þ
The numerator in the right hand side of Eq. (A.1) represents the
sum of the components of internal energy dissipation, while the
denominator is the external work done by the load at the padeye.
Fls is the axial resistance and Fas ¼ αNasSuD is the lateral resistance
of the caisson associated to the shaft energy dissipation, Nas being
the axial resistance bearing factors. The energy dissipation at the
tip of the caisson includes the terms Vb, which is the vertical
capacity in extension, Mb which is the rotational capacity at the
tip, and Mo which is an external moment applied at the caisson
head. The vertical capacity in extension Vb and the rotational
capacity at the tip Mb depend on the maximum vertical resistance
at the bottom of the suction caisson for purely vertical loading, Vbo,
where Vbo ¼ πR2SuavgNab; Suavg is the average shear strength along
the caisson length and Nab is the reverse-end bearing factor at the
507
caisson tip. For a given load inclination, failure occurs when the
ratio of internal energy dissipation to external work is a minimum.
The lateral component of capacity is obtained by minimizing
Eq. (A.1) with respect to parameters ξ and L0. The vertical
component of capacity is then computed from Eq. (A.2)
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