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Economic history of

Pakistan
Since the country's independence in 1947, the
economy of Pakistan has emerged as a semi-
industrialised one, based heavily on textiles,
agriculture and food production, though
recent years have seen a surge towards
technological diversification. As of 2014,
agriculture accounts for more than one-fifth of
output and two-fifths of employment. Textiles
account for most of Pakistan's export earnings,
and inflation has increased rapidly, climbing
from 7.7% in 2007 to almost 12% for 2011,
before declining to 10% in 2012 and to 2.11
percent in April 2015. Inflation Rate in
Pakistan averaged 7.99 percent from 1957
until 2015, reaching an all-time high of 37.81
percent in December 1973 and a record low of
-10.32 percent in February 1959. Pakistan
suffered its only economic decline in GDP
between 1951 and 1952.[1]

The land forming modern-day Pakistan was


home to the ancient Indus Valley Civilisation
from 2800 BC to 1800 BC; historical evidence
suggests that the civilisation relied on and
carried trade through the Indus River, and its
inhabitants were some of the most
resourceful traders. Since independence the
economic growth has meant an increase in
average income of about 150 percent over
1950– 96. But Pakistan, like many other
developing countries, has not been able to
narrow the gap between itself and rich
industrial nations which have grown faster on
a per head basis. Per capita GNP growth rate
during 1985–95 was only 1.2 percent per
annum, substantially lower than India (3.2),
Bangladesh (2.1), and Sri Lanka (2.6).[2] Growth
was slow during the 1950s averaging 3.1
percent per annum but accelerated to 6.7
percent during the sixties and remained
generally close to 6 percent per annum till the
early 1990s.

Ancient History
Indus Valley civilisation, the first known
permanent and predominantly urban
settlement that flourished between 3500 BC
to 1800 BC boasted of an advanced and
thriving economic system. Its citizens practised
agriculture, domesticated animals, made
sharp tools and weapons from copper, bronze
and tin and traded with other cities.[3]
Evidence of well laid streets, layouts, drainage
system and water supply in the valley's major
cities, Harappa, Lothal, Mohenjo-daro and
Rakhigarhi reveals their knowledge of urban
planning.

Though ancient India had a significant urban


population, much of India's population resided
in villages, whose economy was largely
isolated and selfsustaining. Agriculture was
the predominant occupation of the populace
and satisfied a village's food requirements
besides providing raw materials for hand
based industries like textile, food processing
and crafts. Besides farmers, other classes of
people were barbers, carpenters, doctors
(Ayurvedic practitioners), goldsmiths, weavers
etc.[4]
In the joint family system, members of a family
pooled their resources to maintain the family
and invest in business ventures. The system
ensured younger members were trained and
employed in the family business and the older
and disabled persons would be supported by
the family. The system, by preventing the
agricultural land from being split ensured
higher yield because of the benefits of scale.
Such sanctions curbed the spirit of rivality in
junior members and made a peculiar sense of
obedience.[5]

During the Maurya Empire (c. 321–185 BC),


there were a number of important changes
and developments to the Indian economy. It
was the first time most of India was unified
under one ruler. With an empire in place, the
trade routes throughout India became more
secure thereby reducing the risk associated
with the transportation of goods. The empire
spent considerable resources building roads
and maintaining them throughout India. The
improved infrastructure combined with
increased security, greater uniformity in
measurements, and increasing usage of coins
as currency enhanced trade.[6]
Under the Mughal Empire

A silver coin made during the reign of the Mughal Emperor


Alamgir II.

During the Mughal period (1526–1858) in the


16th century, the gross domestic product of
India was estimated at about
25.1% of the world economy.
An estimate of India's pre-colonial economy
puts the annual revenue of Emperor Akbar's
treasury in 1600 at £17.5 million (in contrast
to the entire treasury of
Great Britain two hundred years later in 1800,
which totaled £16 million). The gross
domestic product of Mughal India in 1600 was
estimated at about 24.3% the world economy,
the second largest in the world.[7]

By the late 17th century, the Mughal Empire


was as its peak and had expanded to include
almost 90 per cent of South Asia, and
enforced a uniform customs and tax-
administration system. In 1700 the exchequer
of the Emperor Aurangzeb reported an annual
revenue of more than £100 million. In the
18th century, Mughals were replaced by the
Marathas as the dominant power in much of
Indian, while the other small regional
kingdoms who were mostly late Mughal
tributaries such as the Nawabs in the north
and the Nizams in the south, declared an
autonomy. However, the efficient Mughal tax
administration system was left largely intact.

By this time, India had fallen from the top rank


to become the second-largest economy in the
world.[7] A devastating famine broke out in the
eastern coast in early 1770s killing 5 per cent
of the national population.[8] Economic
historians in the 21st century have found that
in the
18th century real wages were falling in India,
and were "far below European
levels."[9]
British India

The railway network in 1909 in British India.

After gaining the right to collect revenue in


Bengal in 1765, the East India Company largely
ceased importing gold and silver, which it had
hitherto used to pay for goods shipped back to
Britain.[10] In addition, as under Mughal rule,
land revenue collected in the Bengal
Presidency helped finance the Company's
wars in other part of India.[10] Consequently, in
the period
1760–1800, Bengal's money supply was
greatly diminished; furthermore, the closing of
some local mints and close supervision of the
rest, the fixing of exchange rates, and the
standardization of coinage, paradoxically,
added to the economic downturn.[10] During
the period, 1780–1860, India changed from
being an exporter of processed goods for
which it received payment in bullion, to being
an exporter of raw materials and a buyer of
manufactured goods.[10] More specifically, in
the 1750s, mostly fine cotton and silk was
exported from India to markets in Europe,
Asia, and Africa; by the second quarter of the
19th century, raw materials, which chiefly
consisted of raw cotton, opium, and indigo,
accounted for most of India's exports.[11] Also,
from the late 18th century British cotton mill
industry began to lobby the government to
both tax Indian imports and allow them access
to markets in India.[11] Starting in the 1830s,
British textiles began to appear in—and soon
to inundate—the Indian markets, with the
value of the textile imports growing from
£5.2 million 1850 to £18.4 million in
1896.[12]

The British colonial rule created an


institutional environment that stabilized law
and order to a large extent. The British foreign
policies however stifled the trade with rest of
the world. They created a welldeveloped
system of railways, telegraphs and a modern
legal system. The infrastructure the British
created was mainly geared towards the
exploitation of resources in the world and
totally stagnant, with industrial development
stalled, agriculture unable to feed a rapidly
accelerating population. They were subject to
frequent famines, had one of the world's
lowest life expectancies, suffered from
pervasive malnutrition and were largely
illiterate.
Independent Pakistan
Pakistan’s population has grown rapidly from
around 30 million in 1947 to over 130 million
in 1996. The rate of annual growth has
averaged 3 percent since 1960.

Pakistan's average economic growth rate since


independence has been higher than the
average growth rate of the world economy
during the same period. Average annual real
GDP growth rates[13] were 6.8% in the 1960s,
4.8% in the 1970s, and 6.5% in the 1980s.
Average annual growth fell to 4.6% in the
1990s with significantly lower growth in the
second half of that decade. See also[14]
During the 1960s, Pakistan was seen as a
model of economic development around the
world, and there was much praise for its
economic progression. The capital Karachi was
seen as an economic role model around the
world, and there was much praise for the way
its economy was progressing. Many countries
sought to emulate Pakistan's economic
planning strategy and one of them, South
Korea, copied the city's second "Five-Year
Plan"; the World Financial Centre in Seoul is
modeled after Karachi.
1950s and 1960s: Initial Decades

Between 27 October 1958 and 25 March 1969


under Ayub Khan Pakistan economic growth
averaged 5.82% growth during his eleven
years in office. Manufacturing growth in
Pakistan during this time was 8.51%, far
outpacing any other time in Pakistani history.
It was the time when Pakistan first got an
automobile industry, a cement industry and
few other heavy manufacturing industries.
However tax collection was low averaging less
than
10% of GDP.[15] The Export Bonus Vouchers
Scheme (1959) and tax incentives stimulated
new industrial entrepreneurs and exporters.
Bonus vouchers facilitated access to foreign
exchange for imports of industrial machinery
and raw materials.

Tax concessions were offered for investment in


less-developed areas. These measures had
important consequences in bringing industry
to Punjab and gave rise to a new class of small
industrialists.[16] Land reform, consolidation of
holdings, and stern measures against hoarding
were combined with rural credit programs and
work programs, higher procurement prices,
augmented allocations for agriculture, and,
especially, improved seeds were introduced as
part of the green revolution. However,
academics have argued that while the HYV
technology enabled a sharp acceleration in
agricultural growth, it was accompanied by
social polarization and increased inter
personal and inter regional inequality.[17]
Mahbub ul Haq blamed the concentration of
economic power to 22 families which were
dominating the financial and economic life of
the country controlling 66% of the industrial
assets and 87% of the banking.[18] During the
same period there were construction of
several infrastructure projects (notably
Tarbela Dam and Mangla Dam), including
canals, dams and power stations, began
Pakistan's space programme.
In 1959 the country began the construction of
its new capital city.[19] A Greek firm of
architects, Konstantinos
Apostolos Doxiadis, designed the master plan
of the city based on a grid plan which was
triangular in shape with its apex towards the
Margalla Hills.[20] The capital was not moved
directly from Karachi to Islamabad; it was first
shifted temporarily to Rawalpindi in the early
sixties and then to Islamabad when the
essential development work was completed in
1966.[21]

Economy of East Bengal in


Pakistan
Play media
1971 documentary film about East Pakistan

The partition of British India and the


emergence of India and Pakistan in 1947
severely disrupted the economic system. The
united government of Pakistan expanded the
cultivated area and some irrigation facilities,
but the rural population generally became
poorer between 1947 and 1971 because
improvements did not keep pace with rural
population increase.[22] Pakistan's five-year
plans opted for a development strategy based
on industrialization, but the major share of
the development budget went to West
Pakistan, that is, contemporary
Pakistan.[22] The lack of natural resources
meant that East Pakistan was heavily
dependent on imports, creating a balance of
payments problem.[22] Without a substantial
industrialization program or adequate
agrarian expansion, the economy of East
Pakistan steadily declined.[22] Blame was
placed by various observers, but especially
those in East Pakistan, on the West Pakistani
leaders who not only dominated the
government but also most of the fledgling
industries in
East Pakistan.[22]
1970s: Nationalization and Command
Economy
Tarbela
Dam is
the
largest
earth
filled
dam in the
world,
was
construct
ed in 1968.
Prime
Minister
Secretari at
in the
new
capital
city

Spread
over
1700
acres
Quaid-i-
Azam
Universit y
was
construct
ed in
1967

Pakistan
Steel Mills
was
construct
ed in
1973,
making it
the
largest
industrial
mega-
corporati
on having
a
productio
n capacity
of 5.0
million
tonnes of
steel

Economic mismanagement in general, and


fiscally imprudent economic policies in
particular, caused a large increase in the
country's public debt and led to slower growth
in the 1990s. Two wars with India the Second
Kashmir War in 1965 and the Bangladesh
Liberation War in 1971 - and the resultant
separation of Bangladesh from Pakistan also
adversely affected economic growth.[23] In
particular, the latter war brought the economy
close to recession, although economic output
rebounded sharply until the nationalisations
of the mid-1970s. The economy recovered
during the 1980s via a policy of deregulation,
as well as an increased inflow of foreign aid
and remittances from expatriate workers.

According to Muhammad Abrar Zahoor,


nationalization of industries was concerned, it
can be divided into two phases. The first
phase started soon after the PPP came into
power and the motivation behind it was
distributional concerns — to bring under state
control the financial and physical capital
controlled by a tiny corporate elite.
However, in 1974, influence and authority of
the left wing within the party significantly
decreased: they had either been marginalized
or purged.5 The second phase began in 1974
and the motives and effects of the secondary
phase of nationalizations differed from the
initial phase. While the first phase was the
result of a well thought out strategy motivated
by ideological forces, the subsequent phase
was the outcome of ad hoc responses to
various situations.6 During 1974-76, the style
of economic management Bhutto adopted
reduced the role of Planning Commission as
well as its capacity to offer advice to the
political decisionmakers. Corruption grew
exponentially and access to state corridors
became a primary avenue of accumulating a
private fortune. In the way, groups and
individuals in command of state institutions
used public intervention in the "economy as a
means for extending their wealth and
power."[24]

Bhutto introduced socialist economics policies


while working to prevent any further division
of the country. Major heavy mechanical,
chemical, and electrical engineering industries
were immediately nationalised by Bhutto, and
all of the industries came under direct control
of government. Industries, such as KESC were
under complete government control with no
private influence in KESC decision. Bhutto
abandoned Ayub Khan's state capitalism
policies, and introduced socialist policies in a
move to reduce the rich get richer and poor
get poorer ratio. Bhutto also established the
Port Qasim,
Pakistan Steel Mills, the Heavy Mechanical
Complex (HMC) and several cement
factories.However, the growth rate of
economy relative to that of the 1960s when
East Pakistan was still part of Pakistan and
large generous aid from the
United Statee declined, after the global oil
crises in 1973, which also had a negative
impact on the economy.[25]

Economic growth slowed in the wake of


nationalisation. This is corroborated by the
fact that whereas during 1960s, Pakistan's
economy grew on average at 6.8 per cent per
annum, during 1970s, growth rate fell to 4.8
per cent per annum on average. It is also true
that most of the nationalised units went into
loss, because decisions were not market-
based. However, rapid economic growth is not
the only macroeconomic objective of a
government. The government has also
distributional objectives so as to reduce
economic disparities. During 1960s rapid
economic growth was accompanied by
concentration of resources in a few hands.[26]

1980s-1999: Era of Privatization and


Stagnation
Pakistan
develope
d first
motorwa
y in
South
Asia in
1997,
today it
has
expanded
to 1,502
km long
network
Soviet–
Afghan
War,
Significa
ntly
effected
the
economy
of Pakistan
with
approxim
ately 1.7
million
Afghan
refugees
moving
to Pakistan

Benazir
Bhutto
twice led
the
country
during this
period and
promoted
socialcapit
alist
policies
Jinnah
Internatio
nal Airport
was
greatly
expanded
in 1994
making it a
regional
aviation
hub
GDP Growth Rate↓ Inflation Rate↑ (according
Periods
(according to Sartaj Aziz) to Sartaj Aziz)

1988-89 4.88%[27] 10.39%[27]

1989-90 4.67%[27] 6.04%[27]

1990-91 5.48%[27] 12.66%[27]

1991-92 7.68%[27] 9.62%[27]


1992-93 3.03%[27] 11.66%[27]

1993-94 4.0%[27] 11.80%[27]

1994-95 4.5%[27] 14.5%[27]

1995-96 1.70% 10.79%[28]

According to Sushil Khanna , professor at the


Indian Institute of Mass
Communication, the Pakistani economy under
Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq benefited from a
number of special factors, both domestic and
external. The completion of the long gestation
period Tarbela Dam helped unleash an
unprecedented agricultural growth, while
fertilizer and cement investments undertaken
under Bhutto contributed to the industrial
growth. Tremendous boost to economic
activity was provided by rising worker
remittances, which rose to a peak of US $3
billion in 1982-83. In 1982-83, these
remittances were equivalent to 10% of the
gross national product of Pakistan. Zia also
successfully negotiated with USA for larger
external assistance, unprecedented in the
history of Pakistan. In addition to direct
assistance to Pakistan, the United States and
allies funneled about US $5–7 billion to the
Afghan Mujahedins through Pakistan,
providing further boost to the local economy.
Similarly, the narcotic trade which gathered
momentum in the 1980s strongly supported
the service sector of the economy. Under Zia,
the economic policies became market
oriented. Buoyant remittances and aid eased
the foreign exchange constraints on the
economy.[29]

As an aftermath of the 1990 general elections,


the right-wing conservatives under the
leadership of Nawaz Sharif came to the power
for the first time in the history of Pakistan.
Nawaz Sharif strike the stagflation with full
force after forcefully implementing the
Privatization and economic liberalization
programmes.[30] The stagflation was
temporarily ended in the country. However,
Sharif's programmes were widely criticized by
Pakistan Peoples Party in state media and the
growth did not contain the sustainability.[30]
The privatization programme under the
economic liberalisation programme came with
largely surrounded controversies and reckless
by Nawaz Sharif to implement his
programme.According to the Pakistan Peoples
Party, Nawaz Sharif's government arbitrarily
fixing the reference prices of the (privatized)
state units and ignoring those suggested by
the evaluations; though, Sartaj Aziz strongly
dismissed the claims.[31]
After returning to power with heavy margins,
Nawaz Sharif made several attempts to end
the stagflation in the country. Overall, the
conditions had been worsened and a year
after being elected, Sharif ordered the nuclear
tests in a response to India's nuclear
aggression. Despite the Asian financial crises
in 1997 and Russian financial crises in 1998,
and amid economic sanctions in the wake of
nuclear tests, the foreign exchange increased
to $1.5 billion, the stock market improved and
inflation was contained at 3.5% as opposed to
7% in 1993-96. Sharif's second government
restored the GDP growth to 3.49% in 1997,
tough inflation remains high at 11.80%. Little
progress was made by Sharif in 1998, and his
reforms only leveled up the GDP growth to
4.19%, while retaining the inflation and
unemployment at 7.8%.[32]
2000s: Economic Liberalization, Growth
and Restagnation
JF-
17
Thunder
became

the first
indigeno
us combat
aircraft
produced
by the
country.
The
poverty
expendit
ure rate
statistica
lly

dropped
to 34.5%
—17.2%
in 2008 as
part of the
privatizati
on
program
me. PTCL
was
privatized
in 2005,
which
boosted
revenue
of over $1
billion
Statue of
a bull
outside
Islamaba
d Stock
Exchange
emphasis
on
countries
economi c
record

Under Shaukat Aziz's government, the


country's national economic growth improved
at the rate range by 6.4% to 9.0% a year.[33] All
revenue collection targets
were met on time for the first time in the
history of Pakistan, and allocation for
development was increased by about 40%.[34]
However, this economical success is attributed
largely to debt reduction and securing of the
billion dollars worth US aid to Pakistan in
return for the support in the US-led war on
terror.[33] Moreover, despite a series of
internal and external distresses, economic
situation of Pakistan improved significantly
and reserves increased to
US$10.7bn on 30 June 2004 as compared to
US$1.2bn October 1999. Exchange Rate
became stable and predictable; the inflation
rate dropped to 3.5% last 3 years as against
11–12% in 1990.
The administration of Yousaf Raza Gillani
oversaw the dramatic high rise in suicide,
corruption, national security, high
unemployment, and without the sustainable
economic policies along with compilation of
other factors, the country's economy re-
entered in the "era of stagflation" (a virtual
period that country had seen in 1990s earlier).
[35][36][37]
The
Pakistan economy slowed down dramatically
to ~4.09% as compared to 8.96%—9.0%
presided under his predecessor, Shaukat Aziz
in 2004–08; while the yearly growth rate has
come down from a long-term average of 5.0%
to
~2.0%, though it did not reached to negative
level.[36] Calculation performed by the Pakistan
Institute of Development Economics, it
pointed out that the "nation's currency in
circulation as a percentage of total deposits is
31%, which is very high as compared to India",
where 40.0% of the population fell under the
line of poverty, with 16.0% rise in the inflation
during his four years of presiding over the
country.[38] The new strict and tight monetary
policy could not tame the soaring inflation, it
did stagnate the economic growth.[37] One
economist maintained that stagflation took
place when the tight monetary policy did not
encourage the strong private sector to play a
key part in growth.
Analyzing the stagflation problem, the PIDE
observed that a major cause of continuous era
of stagflation in Pakistan was lack of
coordination between fiscal and monetary
authorities.[37][38]

Since 2013: Privatization and


Liberalization
3000 km
long
China–
Pakistan
Economi c
Corridor
construct
ion begin
in 2015

Pakistan
rolled out
4G in
2014,
aiming to
capitalize
on over
140
million
mobile
phones in
the
country

Several
mass
transit
system's
have been
develope
d
througho
ut
Pakistan.
Fiscal Year GDP growth Inflation
rate
2013–14[39] 4.14%[40]
8.5%|[41]

2014–15 4.24% 4.8%[42]

2015–16 4.5% 5.1%[42]


Projected[43]

Sharif inherited an economy crippled with


many challenges including energy shortages,
hyperinflation, mild economic growth, high
debt and large budget deficit. Shortly after
taking power in 2013, Sharif won a $6.6 billion
loan from the International Monetary Fund to
avoid a balance-of-payments crisis. Lower oil
prices, higher remittances and increased
consumer spending are pushing growth
toward a seven-year high of 4.3 percent in the
fiscal year of FY2014-15.[44] Pakistan's GDP
growth rate for FY 2012-2013 was down to
3.59% with estimates suggesting that it will
only reach 3.65% by the end of 2013 however
the government expects to increase it to 5.8%
for FY 2014-2015. Business confidence in
Pakistan is at a three-year high in May 2014
largely backed by increasing foreign reserves
to $10b while it is expected that they will
cross $15 billion by mid-2014. Along with that,
in May 2014 IMF[45] claimed that Inflation has
dropped to 13 per cent compared to 25%
in 2008, foreign reserves are in a better
position and the current account deficit has
come down to 3 per cent of GDP for 2014.
Standard & Poor's and Moody's Corporation
changed Pakistan's ranking to stable outlook
on the long-term
rating.[46][47][48]

On 5 May 2015, Standard & Poor's revised


projections for Pakistan's average real Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) growth for 2015 to
2017 to 4.6 per cent from 3.8 per cent and
also upped its outlook on Pakistan's long-term
'B-' credit rating to ‘positive’ from ‘stable’. S&P
attributes the largely positive projections to
diversification in income generation, the
government's efforts towards fiscal
consolidation, improvement in external
financing conditions and performance, and
stronger capital inflows and remittances.[49]
Forbes on 4 March 2016, termed Pakistan's
economy is on track to become an emerging
market in Asia. Claiming that Pakistan’s
growing middle class, which will expand from
an estimated 40 million people in 2016 to 100
million people by 2050 is ket to countries
economic prospects.[50] On Jun 19, 2016,
Reuters claimed that Pakistani stocks are
soaring, improved security is fuelling
economic growth and the South Asian nation
will be upgraded to "emerging market" status
by index provider MSCI.[51]

Pakistan's GDP is projected by the World


Bank to grow by 4.5%. In its South Asian
Growth report, the World Bank said, "In
Pakistan, gradual recovery to around 4.5 per
cent growth by 2016 is aided by low inflation
and fiscal consolidation. Increases in
remittances and stable agricultural
performance contribute to this outcome. But
further acceleration requires tackling
pervasive power cuts, a cumbersome business
environment, and low access to finance. "[52]
In FY2016, the current account deficit has
widen marginally due to increase in trade
deficit.[53] Nevertheless, exports are expected
to increase only slightly after 2 years of
stagnation,[54] as manufacturing continues to
suffer under energy shortages and low cotton
prices saw only a modest increase.[55] In his
2016 book, The Rise and Fall of Nations,
Ruchir
Sharma termed Pakistan’s economy as on a
'take-off' stage and the future outlook till 2020
has been termed ‘Very Good’.
Sharma termed it possible to transform
Pakistan from a "low-income to a
middleincome country during the next five
years."[56]
On Oct 31, 2016, Standard & Poor's, by citing
improved policymaking resulting in improved
macroeconomic stability, raised Pakistan's
rating to B from B-. It also revised upward its
forecast of average annual GDP growth to five
per cent over 2016-2019 from its earlier
estimate of 4.7 per cent.[57] In response to
S&P's upgrade, PSX's benchmark-100 index
posted its largest gain in history, increasing
1,406.03 points (or 3.52%) over a single day.[58]
On November 1, 2016, hundreds of Chinese
trucks loaded with goods rolled into the Sost
dry port in Gilgit-Baltistan as the first shipment
of China–Pakistan Economic Corridor.[59] On 3
November 2016, the Sharif government
announced that Renault is expected to start
assembling cars in Pakistan by 2018, a source
earlier in May 6, 2016 had told Reuters that
Pakistan was under consideration for new
production investment.[60][61] On November 7,
2016, Bloomberg News claimed that the
economy is expected to grow around five
percent annually for the next three years and
claimed that "Pakistan is on the verge of an
investment-led growth cycle."[62] On January
10th, 2017, The Economist forecasted
Pakistan's GDP to grow at 5.3% in 2017,
making it the fifth fastest growing economy in
the world and the fastest growing in the
Muslim world.[63][64]
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ISBN 9788120611795.
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