1 METODE KONSTAN METODE LINEAR

t dt dt' e e^2 t dt t.dt

1 5 5.6 -0.6 0.36 1 5 5
2 3 5.6 -2.6 6.76 2 3 6
3 6 5.6 0.4 0.16 3 6 18
4 7 5.6 1.4 1.96 4 7 28
5 4 5.6 -1.6 2.56 5 4 20
6 5 5.6 -0.6 0.36 6 5 30
7 7 5.6 1.4 1.96 7 7 49
8 8 5.6 2.4 5.76 8 8 64
9 6 5.6 0.4 0.16 9 6 54
10 5 5.6 -0.6 0.36 10 5 50
20.4
METODE LINEAR
t^2 dt' e e^2 METODE KUADRATIS
1 32 -27 729 t dt t.dt t^2 t^2.dt
4 33 -30 900 -5 5 -25 25 125
9 34 -28 784 -4 3 -12 16 48
16 35 -28 784 -3 6 -18 9 54
25 36 -32 1024 -2 7 -14 4 28
36 37 -32 1024 -1 4 -4 1 4
49 38 -31 961 1 5 5 1 5
64 39 -31 961 2 7 14 4 28
81 40 -34 1156 3 8 24 9 72
100 41 -36 1296 4 6 24 16 96
9619 5 5 25 25 125
total 56 19 110 585
TODE KUADRATIS
t^4 dt' e e^2
625 5.31 -0.31 0.0961
256 5.12 -2.12 4.4944
81 5.01 0.99 0.9801
16 4.98 2.02 4.0804
1 5.03 -1.03 1.0609
1 5.37 -0.37 0.1369
16 5.66 1.34 1.7956
81 6.03 1.97 3.8809
256 6.48 -0.48 0.2304
625 7.01 -2.01 4.0401
1958 56 0 20.7958
No. 5 DATA
t 1000 750 2500 a. Moving 3 average
1 154 176 65 1.3 132.66666667
2 126 179 80 2.4 125
3 118 189 73 3.5 136.33333333
4 131 177 86 4.6 150
5 160 192 78 5.7 163
6 159 187 94 6.8 163.66666667
7 170 194 93 7.9 171.66666667
8 162 186 86 8.10 172.66666667
9 183 207 99 9.11 181
10 173 197 92 10.12
11 187 200 94
12 187 208 107 b. Simple exponentioal s
MSE
154
126
118
131
160
total
159
170
162
183
173
187
187

MSE
176
179
189
177
192
750ml
187
194
186
207
197
200
208

MSE
65
80
73
86
78
750ml
94
93
750ml

86
99
92
94
107

c. Square m
750 m
1 65
2 80
3 73
4 86
5 78
6 94
7 93
8 86
9 99
10 92
11 94
12 107
13 91.34
 a. Moving 3 average DT DT' 3DT 3DT'
181.33333333 72.66666667 448500 520541.6667 457437.5 520791.6667
181.66666667 79.66666667 460250 520541.6667 470062.5 520791.6667
186 79 442250 520541.6667 488562.5 520791.6667
185.33333333 86 478750 520541.6667 515000 520791.6667
191 88.33333333 499000 520541.6667 524437.5 520791.6667
189 91 534250 520541.6667 546125 520791.6667
195.66666667 92.66666667 548000 520541.6667 550250 520791.6667
196.66666667 92.33333333 516500 520541.6667 556250 520791.6667
201.33333333 95 585750 520541.6667 579750 520791.6667
201.66666667 97.66666667 550750 520541.6667 506500 520791.6667
572000 520541.6667 511937.5 520791.6667
b. Simple exponentioal smoothing 610500 520541.6667 543187.5 520791.6667
MSE Error Error^2

154 -28 784

ERROR 0.0221878192
148.4 -30.4 924.16
142.32 -11.32 128.1424
140.056 19.944 397.7631
144.0448 14.9552 223.658
147.03584 22.96416 527.3526
151.628672 10.371328 107.5644
153.7029376 29.2970624 858.3179
159.56235008 13.43764992 180.5704
162.24988006 24.75011994 612.5684
167.19990405 19.80009595 392.0438
5136.141
MSE Error Error^2

176 3 9
176.6 12.4 153.76
179.08 -2.08 4.3264
178.664 13.336 177.8489
181.3312 5.6688 32.13529
182.46496 11.53504 133.0571
184.771968 1.228032 1.508063
185.0175744 21.9824256 483.227
189.41405952 7.58594048 57.54649
190.93124762 9.068752384 82.24227
192.74499809 15.25500191 232.7151
1367.367
MSE Error Error^2

65 15 225
68 5 25
69 17 289
72.4 5.6 31.36
73.52 20.48 419.4304
77.616 15.384 236.6675
 80.6928 5.3072 28.16637
81.75424 17.24576 297.4162
85.203392 6.796608 46.19388
86.5627136 7.4372864 55.31323
88.05017088 18.94982912 359.096
2012.644

c. Square methode
750 ml
65 1 2 60.32
160 4 3 63.14
219 9 4 65.96
344 16 5 68.78
390 25 6 71.6
564 36 7 74.42
651 49 8 77.24
688 64 9 80.06
891 81 10 82.88
920 100 11 85.7
1034 121 12 88.52
1284 144 13 91.34
7210 650 14 94.16
 E E''
8937.5 79878906
9812.5 96285156
46312.5 2.14E+09
36250 1.31E+09
25437.5 6.47E+08
11875 1.41E+08
2250 5062500
39750 1.58E+09
-6000 36000000
-44250 1.96E+09
-60062.5 3.61E+09
-67312.5 4.53E+09
1.61E+10 11,550

`
No.6 DATA
t 1lt 750ml 250ml a. Moving 4 average
1 154 176 65 1.4 132.25 180.25 76
2 126 179 80 2.5 133.75 184.25 79.25
3 118 189 73 3.6 142 186.25 82.75
4 131 177 86 4.7 155 187.5 87.75
5 160 192 78 5.8 162.75 189.75 87.75
6 159 187 94 6.9 168.5 193.5 93
7 170 194 93 7.10 172 196 92.5
8 162 186 86 8.11 176.25 197.5 92.75
9 183 207 99 9.12 182.5 203 98
10 173 197 92
11 187 200 94
12 187 208 107 b. Simple exponentioal smoothing
MSE Error
154
126 154 -28
118 145.6 -27.6
131 137.32 -6.32
160 135.424 24.576
1lt
159 142.7968 16.2032
170 147.6578 22.34224
162 154.3604 7.639568
183 156.6523 26.3477
173 164.5566 8.443388
187 167.0896 19.91037
187 173.0627 13.93726

MSE Error
176
179 176 3
189 176.9 12.1
177 180.53 -3.53
192 179.471 12.529
750ml
187 183.2297 3.7703
194 184.3608 9.63921
186 187.2526 -1.25255
207 186.8768 20.12321
197 192.9138 4.086249
200 194.1396 5.860374
208 195.8977 12.10226

MSE Error
65
80 65 15
73 69.5 3.5
86 70.55 15.45
250ml
 78 75.185 2.815
250ml
94 76.0295 17.9705
93 81.42065 11.57935
86 84.89446 1.105545
99 85.22612 13.77388
92 89.35828 2.641717
94 90.1508 3.849202
107 91.30556 15.69444
al smoothing
Error^2

784
761.76
39.9424
603.9798
262.5437
499.1757
58.363
694.2012
71.29081
396.4229
194.2472
4365.927
Error^2

9
146.41
12.4609
156.9758
14.21516
92.91437
1.568889
404.9437
16.69743
34.34399
146.4647
1035.995
Error^2

225
12.25
238.7025
7.924225
322.9389
134.0813
1.22223
189.7198
6.978669
14.81636
246.3155
1399.949
 No.10
27 107
28 121 11. 4 week moving MSE
29 181 136 107
30 135 146 121
31 147 157 181
32 165 135
33 2016 147
34 2232 165
35 189 ?
36 222
37 232
38 720
39 255
40 243
41 45
42 219
43 220
44 6468
45 6501
46 612
47 189
48 189
49 171
50 171
 e e^2

107 14 196
108.4 72.6 5270.76
115.66 19.34 374.0356
117.594 29.406 864.7128
120.5346 44.4654 1977.172
124.9811 8682.68