99th Climate Outlook Forum,

Amihan Conference Room, PAGASA, Quezon City

21 February 2018

CLIMATE OUTLOOK
(MARCH – AUGUST 2018)

Prepared by:
PAGASA-DOST
CLIMATOLOGY & AGROMETEOROLOGY DIVISION (CAD)
Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)

Updated: 21 February 2018

C
• ENSO Updates and Outlook
O
• Climate Outlook (MARCH – AUGUST 2018)
N • Rainfall
T • Temperature
E • Dry day forecast
N • Tropical Cyclone Frequency
• Temperature Extremes
T
• Summary
S

2
ENSO UPDATES: RECENT CONDITIONS
 GLOBAL ENSO ADVISORIES
INTERNATIONAL PREDICTION CENTERS
CPC/ International Research
Institute (IRI), USA
As of : 08 February 2018
Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)-
Australia
As of : 13 February 2018
Tokyo Climate Center/JMA -Japan
As of: 09 February 2018
APEC Climate Center,
Busan, S. Korea
As of : 25 January 2018
World Meteorological
Organization (WMO)
As of: 14 December 2017 (updated
quarterly)
PAGASA: La Niña still persists in the tropical Pacific, with likely transition to ENSO-neutral during March-
April-May 2018 season
SUMMARY
• A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is most likely during the
Northern Hemisphere spring (~55% chance of ENSO-neutral during
the March-May season).
• ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
• La Niña decline may be hastened by recent shift in trade winds;
• SSTs indicate a weak La Niña pattern, with the coolest waters
concentrated in the eastern Pacific Ocean
• ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
• It is considered that La Niña conditions continue in the equatorial
Pacific.
• It is likely that La Niña conditions will end in boreal spring (MAM)
(70%).
(based from SSTA averaged over NINO.3 (5°N-5°S, 150°W-90°W)
• Latest model forecasts indicate a below normal temperature anomaly
across the eastern equatorial Pacific with a weak negative El Niño-
Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase.
• La Niña conditions are 70-80% likely to continue into the first quarter
of 2018.
• La Niña is likely to be weak (0.5 to 1.0 degrees Celsius below average),
with a slight chance for moderate strength (1.0 to 1.5 degrees Celsius
below average).
Atmospheric Indicator
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
As of: 13 February 2018
 The 30-day (SOI) to 11
February is 2.5 (90-day value
+2.4), within the neutral range
and has maintained steady
decline during the past 2
La Niña weeks.

 Sustained positive values of the

Neutral SOI above +7 typically indicate
La Niña while sustained
negative values below −7
typically indicate El Niño.
Values between about +7 and
El Niño −7 generally indicate neutral
conditions.

Source: BOM, Australia

Daily or weekly values of the SOI do not convey much in the way of useful information
about the current state of the climate. Daily values in particular can fluctuate markedly
2018/2/21 because of daily weather patterns, and should not be used for climate purposes.
CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook
Updated: 19 February 2018

La Niña is likely through Feb-Mar-April season, with a transition to ENSO-neutral

expected during the spring (MAM).

Based from model output + expert judgment Based from model output only
 SST Outlook

Issued: 19 February 2018

The majority of models

predict La Niña to persist
into early spring (FMA)
2018, with a return to
ENSO-neutral thereafter.

FORECAST SST ANOMALY FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA

Average Dynamical Models -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3
Average Statistical models -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1
2018/2/21 All models -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2
CPC/NOAA NMME Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Model Outlook
and other comprehensive dynamical models
As of 19 February 2018

NMME SSTA predictions suggest

that the SST has the greatest
chance for staying in the weak La
Niña range for Feb-Apr 2018, with
a lower but non-negligible
probability for ENSO-neutral
during that period.

These are the participating models being used in

PAGASA’s Consensus Forecast. 11
 PAGASA ENSO Alert System Status
is

LA NIÑA
ADVISORY
#3  WEAK LA NIÑA PERSISTS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC

13
 WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT MAY AFFECT THE
COUNTRY DURING THE PERIOD
(MARCH-AUGUST 2018)

(FEBRUARY - MARCH) (APRIL – JULY)

Northeast (NE) Monsoon Transition: NE to Southwest (SW) Monsoon
Tail-end of Cold Front Easterlies
Easterlies Local Thunderstorms
Thunderstorms
Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)
Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)
Low Pressure Areas (LPAs)
Low Pressure Areas (LPAs)
Ridge of High Pressure Area
Ridge of High Pressure Area
Tropical Cyclones
Tropical Cyclones

2018/2/21
2018/2/21
about of our
Rainfall
PERCENTAGE (%) RAINFALL CONDITION
Maps..
Less than or = 40 way below normal
41 – 80 below normal
81 – 120 near normal
Greater than 120 above normal
 MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Normal (mm) March 2018
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces
likely to
experience: 1 18 46 14
 MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Normal (mm) April 2018
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces
likely to
experience: 1 23 55 0
 MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Normal (mm) May 2018
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces
likely to
experience: 0 0 60 19
 MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Normal (mm) June 2018
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces
likely to
experience: 0 0 60 19
 MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Normal (mm) July 2018
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces
likely to
experience: 0 19 59 1
 MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Normal (mm) August 2018
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces
likely to
experience: 0 1 77 1
 FORECAST RAINFALL in Percent of Normal FORECAST RAINFALL in Percent of Normal
(MARCH - AUGUST 2018) as of Feb 19, 2018 (MARCH - AUGUST 2018) as of Feb 19, 2018
PROVINCE MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG PROVINCE MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR) REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)
ABRA 41.6 60.0 106.9 93.8 92.9 80.2 AKLAN 98.4 80.7 131.4 119.3 110.4 102.7
BENGUET 100.1 79.4 113.1 95.4 59.3 82.8 ANTIQUE 90.4 88.6 136.5 124.9 101.4 97.3
IFUGAO 95.7 70.8 113.8 99.6 70.0 83.3 CAPIZ 102.0 78.1 136.3 118.8 114.5 102.1
KALINGA 73.8 64.6 107.6 97.6 99.1 80.4 GUIMARAS 92.5 81.2 144.2 121.2 93.3 91.2
APAYAO 54.4 56.1 100.9 85.5 86.9 82.4 ILOILO 99.1 85.6 140.9 121.5 104.0 96.5
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 82.3 66.8 111.3 99.2 80.7 80.3 NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 75.9 86.4 134.3 111.9 99.1 97.4
REGION I REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)
ILOCOS NORTE 31.7 32.9 98.7 86.9 75.7 86.9 NEGROS ORIENTAL 81.8 101.1 129.3 108.9 102.9 100.1
ILOCOS SUR 49.5 59.9 110.1 97.0 81.5 78.5 BOHOL 97.2 115.4 130.3 129.1 83.6 102.9
LA UNION 91.0 78.6 111.1 97.3 70.1 81.3 CEBU 89.5 98.2 134.4 113.9 97.1 101.5
PANGASINAN 79.2 82.3 110.0 99.5 90.7 86.6 SIQUIJOR 94.9 119.7 122.2 113.6 89.5 98.9
REGION II REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)
BILIRAN 112.3 93.3 118.0 116.2 97.1 93.3
BATANES 105.4 94.0 83.0 86.5 76.5 99.4
EASTERN SAMAR 92.4 78.4 118.1 110.1 74.5 136.1
CAGAYAN 74.6 60.4 101.4 89.8 97.6 82.0
LEYTE 102.0 100.9 122.9 117.5 99.0 103.7
ISABELA 103.2 72.5 111.1 108.8 85.2 89.9
NORTHERN SAMAR 98.9 101.3 110.7 120.3 77.7 110.5
NUEVA VIZCAYA 84.3 69.5 115.6 100.0 71.4 92.8
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 106.5 92.6 114.9 113.1 81.3 114.8
QUIRINO 99.9 81.5 114.4 109.4 84.2 102.0
SOUTHERN LEYTE 93.6 93.6 118.8 132.4 91.0 100.8
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON)
REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
BATAAN 61.8 60.4 117.0 111.1 76.6 85.1
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 106.7 108.9 110.2 104.6 78.8 98.1
BULACAN 74.9 60.0 114.3 119.2 82.0 91.3
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 114.0 109.0 109.8 102.7 76.5 99.0
NUEVA ECIJA 64.1 57.0 113.3 107.2 84.8 93.7
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 116.9 104.0 112.5 103.8 82.4 99.3
PAMPANGA 73.5 67.9 112.9 111.5 75.2 86.6
REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
TARLAC 79.3 87.6 110.3 103.2 81.3 86.6
BUKIDNON 127.2 100.4 109.7 97.2 94.2 108.0
ZAMBALES 78.8 93.1 110.8 104.1 81.3 87.0 CAMIGUIN 102.6 105.8 116.2 121.8 105.4 105.1
AURORA 91.1 81.9 111.2 116.4 91.1 109.3 LANAO DEL NORTE 113.2 104.1 105.7 97.8 76.9 104.6
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 99.1 110.1 103.2 100.9 71.8 99.9
METRO MANILA 75.0 79.3 117.7 120.4 88.1 88.8 MISAMIS ORIENTAL 110.0 100.7 111.9 105.8 112.3 111.7
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON) REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
BATANGAS 79.0 49.0 124.4 112.0 96.8 89.9 COMPOSTELA VALLEY 111.4 102.4 109.0 101.9 83.4 107.7
CAVITE 53.8 80.4 122.7 114.8 82.7 86.0 DAVAO 141.5 98.6 108.6 98.9 85.1 107.8
LAGUNA 102.6 95.8 120.4 120.6 104.9 91.5 DAVAO DEL SUR 200.2 99.9 104.5 94.0 82.4 105.2
RIZAL 86.9 83.6 116.3 123.5 91.7 93.9 DAVAO ORIENTAL 125.9 104.5 107.5 103.3 83.4 106.4
QUEZON 101.3 75.2 111.3 128.4 100.7 97.2 REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA) SOUTH COTABATO 146.1 113.0 105.5 91.9 79.4 102.4
MARINDUQUE 108.1 78.7 113.6 120.3 119.4 94.2 COTABATO 176.3 102.1 104.7 94.9 74.3 102.6
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 73.5 81.8 127.3 113.1 97.5 93.8 SARANGANI 140.3 112.8 105.6 91.9 82.5 102.7
ORIENTAL MINDORO 89.9 88.1 125.0 111.4 106.3 92.9 SULTAN KUDARAT 146.0 108.1 106.0 95.5 74.7 101.3
ROMBLON 112.7 76.0 114.7 118.7 92.5 101.2 REGION XIII- CARAGA
PALAWAN 67.5 93.6 128.6 112.8 94.0 106.4 AGUSAN DEL NORTE 97.5 117.0 111.3 116.9 133.2 101.9
REGION V (BICOL) AGUSAN DEL SUR 103.7 110.7 110.2 105.7 107.1 106.6
ALBAY 126.6 86.4 103.1 126.5 116.6 104.9 SURIGAO DEL NORTE 98.0 93.6 106.3 128.3 112.8 82.0
CAMARINES NORTE 116.3 97.6 101.1 140.3 84.2 98.4 SURIGAO DEL SUR 100.6 110.3 108.6 112.8 107.0 99.9
CAMARINES SUR 122.8 88.6 101.7 134.0 98.3 102.5 ARMM
CATANDUANES 120.1 76.0 104.6 125.4 84.7 98.7 BASILAN 134.4 111.2 123.3 107.4 89.3 100.8
MASBATE 104.6 83.5 117.1 124.6 100.1 98.9 MAGUINDANAO 136.7 98.2 105.1 96.3 68.3 100.2
SORSOGON 116.0 87.3 107.1 124.7 108.3 104.0 LANAO DEL SUR 122.9 104.0 106.0 96.1 76.3 104.2
SULU 115.3 104.4 120.6 104.5 88.2 102.4
NUMBER OF PROVINCES THAT WILL LIKELY TO RECEIVE…

Way below Below

MONTH Near normal Above normal
normal Normal

MARCH 1 18 46 14

APRIL 1 23 55 0

MAY 0 0 60 19

JUNE 0 0 60 19

JULY 0 19 59 1

AUGUST 0 1 77 1

2018/2/21
PROBABILISTIC FORECAST

How certain or
uncertain are
we?

Forecasting rainfall in
probabilistic terms is
a way of expressing
uncertainty in the
future
weather/climate.
 FORECAST RAINFALL (millimeter) MARCH – AUGUST 2018
PROVINCE MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR) MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN
ABRA 2.5 23.4 11.6 10.2 58.8 40.8 182.4 239.5 208.2 208.3 326.6 268.0 300.9 538.7 432.3 375.1 603.5 502.5
BENGUET 33.1 54.3 44.1 68.9 89.2 81.2 260.3 319.4 290.5 319.5 386.7 353.5 391.0 506.3 447.9 629.6 831.9 728.1
IFUGAO 28.6 43.3 35.0 55.3 77.7 64.7 203.2 277.3 240.5 182.9 332.1 254.0 285.1 458.0 374.1 286.2 650.8 456.5
KALINGA 15.2 28.3 21.6 32.9 61.0 52.3 164.8 225.0 193.2 164.5 280.9 207.8 237.9 451.3 325.8 238.8 526.2 362.0
APAYAO 9.8 23.8 17.6 22.6 55.6 42.0 148.7 186.5 170.2 156.7 223.5 188.7 167.7 323.7 230.5 222.1 435.4 333.2
L MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 21.7 35.7 27.9 49.8 71.8 60.8 192.0 262.8 226.1 177.6 337.0 255.1 277.2 486.8 394.5 282.3 642.3 467.4
REGION I
ILOCOS NORTE 0.9 23.0 8.4 3.8 39.9 18.2 176.0 210.4 191.1 209.0 287.8 241.8 220.3 479.5 312.3 392.0 549.5 485.0

U ILOCOS SUR
LA UNION
0.2
30.0
43.1
46.1
20.1
38.4
7.5
56.9
79.3
86.4
41.2
72.8
203.5
265.4
290.4
302.1
242.1
284.9
275.1
368.0
378.6
398.7
334.4
385.9
432.9
439.9
553.5
532.5
517.3
492.4
534.6
693.8
753.6
796.6
623.9
748.4
PANGASINAN 11.5 36.6 20.9 22.7 73.2 51.7 233.0 286.0 253.2 282.3 436.0 373.5 329.2 590.7 469.7 494.4 752.1 654.9
REGION II

Z BATANES
CAGAYAN
63.4
18.1
70.5
63.9
66.7
32.1
39.6
20.1
62.9
61.4
50.4
39.1
182.8
139.8
189.3
188.5
185.8
157.6
203.7
148.0
219.7
230.5
211.5
164.8
184.0
163.1
198.7
276.3
189.1
200.3
340.7
167.5
378.8
401.5
358.8
239.5
ISABELA 25.5 159.4 69.1 31.8 135.5 67.6 162.6 248.6 206.4 161.9 238.6 192.3 191.1 342.8 236.4 212.6 386.2 251.0
NUEVA VIZCAYA 28.6 120.9 54.3 36.7 149.2 66.5 238.3 287.8 262.6 229.6 331.6 271.8 300.9 426.1 348.9 253.1 686.7 459.8
O QUIRINO
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON)
46.4 161.8 105.7 61.7 162.7 109.7 236.5 273.5 255.4 212.9 254.3 236.7 204.9 336.6 290.1 212.1 373.3 273.3

BATAAN 6.8 15.2 10.0 25.1 48.7 40.1 187.4 214.2 202.4 340.7 414.1 382.5 359.0 535.8 465.8 490.8 679.7 599.9
BULACAN 5.7 63.0 20.8 13.9 63.0 28.2 202.6 230.8 218.5 293.3 367.6 327.0 290.8 464.4 375.6 320.2 568.6 438.3
N NUEVA ECIJA 3.4 87.1 25.9 7.4 98.3 33.9 211.7 264.4 229.5 253.1 332.1 277.9 273.6 409.8 320.3 245.1 574.9 393.8
PAMPANGA 6.1 13.9 8.4 21.5 60.7 44.1 204.9 228.8 217.2 313.3 413.0 364.7 367.1 555.6 468.6 436.1 706.9 579.0
TARLAC 7.7 15.6 10.6 44.9 63.8 57.1 218.3 244.8 231.8 295.4 431.5 358.2 354.6 613.3 478.8 474.5 812.0 635.7
ZAMBALES 9.1 23.5 15.5 37.4 51.2 43.1 211.7 252.3 235.9 399.0 459.5 430.3 522.0 650.2 593.7 652.8 899.4 765.4
AURORA 62.2 220.2 145.2 42.7 204.1 145.6 230.2 290.2 257.6 224.4 314.4 260.1 191.9 308.8 260.9 175.4 322.8 228.6
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
METRO MANILA 8.6 29.2 17.7 0.0 43.2 24.3 175.8 212.6 195.8 304.6 339.2 323.4 347.9 422.3 393.1 377.0 552.6 480.9
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)
BATANGAS 12.7 84.3 40.3 17.9 117.4 76.0 159.4 204.2 179.5 255.1 317.4 273.1 203.9 332.0 262.0 179.2 434.5 272.4
CAVITE 4.3 21.7 11.7 0.0 38.5 8.5 165.6 182.4 174.5 283.4 322.4 303.1 249.5 384.9 310.2 315.5 442.2 382.0
LAGUNA 13.6 107.3 60.3 0.0 126.8 65.4 166.5 202.0 181.6 263.1 318.8 290.9 292.1 381.4 337.7 199.4 444.2 275.1
RIZAL 20.9 96.0 53.3 33.6 122.7 70.8 179.0 221.9 203.8 293.4 330.1 321.9 319.6 391.1 358.2 268.3 501.4 388.6
QUEZON 53.3 170.5 123.8 37.7 151.0 97.4 152.5 237.3 189.7 250.1 328.6 276.2 105.6 350.4 268.3 117.6 356.1 186.7
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)
MARINDUQUE 87.8 122.2 100.7 73.3 87.3 79.0 177.9 190.6 184.8 257.0 280.8 265.1 292.8 350.9 319.5 154.3 206.6 174.0
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 5.9 58.7 35.1 16.3 100.6 51.2 189.6 224.4 216.3 295.2 435.3 362.1 229.3 432.0 345.9 263.1 559.7 396.7
ORIENTAL MINDORO 19.5 79.7 54.3 24.6 117.4 68.8 202.9 223.3 214.7 274.8 405.7 331.1 230.9 404.5 334.6 198.2 497.7 321.0
ROMBLON 51.5 91.2 72.4 48.1 75.5 59.5 161.9 196.9 174.6 258.4 334.6 292.7 222.2 320.6 250.6 166.7 295.7 230.5
PALAWAN 3.4 47.3 31.0 30.3 62.5 54.4 160.8 254.4 188.3 198.6 478.7 286.7 141.3 437.4 261.1 180.1 538.0 281.1
REGION V (BICOL)
ALBAY 177.1 255.0 218.2 106.8 148.6 134.3 162.1 171.7 166.5 259.6 285.5 272.4 227.7 316.4 303.7 178.8 243.4 227.6
CAMARINES NORTE 143.4 181.9 168.3 95.2 143.6 125.0 144.8 183.2 156.7 253.2 274.9 266.0 164.0 232.4 195.3 119.1 192.8 153.1
CAMARINES SUR 158.2 216.9 186.8 100.8 134.7 111.7 150.1 164.7 158.0 261.0 286.6 280.3 201.7 305.5 251.4 158.9 225.7 197.0
CATANDUANES 173.5 192.0 178.7 103.3 111.8 106.9 160.8 165.2 163.0 271.3 281.2 276.5 189.7 236.9 204.9 149.5 171.4 156.4
MASBATE 82.5 158.2 110.8 44.2 96.7 67.7 154.8 174.0 161.5 217.9 268.7 228.2 204.8 294.2 232.4 149.6 227.5 178.3
SORSOGON 162.6 233.0 199.4 85.5 143.8 118.4 159.3 169.3 163.9 229.0 265.3 248.7 203.9 311.8 258.0 174.9 236.5 203.7
 FORECAST RAINFALL (millimeter) MARCH – AUGUST 2018
PROVINCE MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST
V
REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS) MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN
I AKLAN 46.1 64.2 55.5 52.7 63.0 58.4 191.8 201.5 196.0 308.2 351.3 327.7 297.2 333.5 314.4 186.5 308.6 237.5
ANTIQUE 25.1 54.9 43.1 37.8 61.4 56.5 195.2 214.3 201.0 324.5 397.2 366.6 304.9 390.8 340.3 239.5 462.3 325.5
S CAPIZ 46.4 75.5 61.2 48.9 65.5 54.8 185.2 200.2 194.5 282.3 361.1 327.0 292.7 338.6 319.0 159.6 302.9 231.2
GUIMARAS 43.7 47.9 45.3 59.2 65.3 61.2 197.9 209.3 202.5 373.7 388.2 384.4 302.0 324.3 315.6 381.5 402.1 395.3
A ILOILO 37.7 86.0 53.4 53.9 84.0 59.6 176.9 201.8 196.4 252.3 390.9 360.0 256.2 340.5 325.5 172.2 402.4 316.6
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 46.2 75.1 53.9 61.2 81.1 70.7 163.1 226.9 194.2 240.5 375.1 315.2 205.5 309.7 254.8 203.3 385.9 296.1
Y REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)
NEGROS ORIENTAL 42.4 56.0 51.6 64.5 83.2 72.6 126.7 210.5 160.7 180.0 333.4 233.9 125.0 258.2 180.1 103.6 329.9 195.1
A BOHOL 67.2 107.8 83.2 54.6 99.2 84.5 121.8 137.4 127.1 164.9 191.3 175.2 106.3 158.9 131.4 99.0 140.9 118.7
CEBU 47.9 131.7 70.1 43.7 98.8 71.0 131.6 178.2 157.4 178.8 271.3 223.9 120.9 246.1 184.6 113.7 210.8 166.4
S SIQUIJOR 53.2 65.2 60.1 72.5 88.6 81.5 125.7 127.1 126.4 168.3 178.9 173.6 107.4 116.1 112.0 101.8 111.0 106.0
REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)
BILIRAN 157.4 178.3 167.5 98.2 110.1 102.8 169.1 175.0 172.3 223.3 230.8 227.5 225.4 236.6 232.1 159.1 168.2 164.1
EASTERN SAMAR 205.2 251.9 214.8 107.5 132.0 120.2 158.7 228.9 198.4 207.9 248.2 232.9 152.8 209.8 180.1 127.4 242.9 202.1
LEYTE 100.3 197.9 158.9 58.2 125.1 104.3 125.4 186.9 162.1 180.6 226.9 203.0 150.1 236.3 182.5 139.5 170.4 148.4
NORTHERN SAMAR 149.0 215.0 203.8 84.6 159.2 135.0 158.8 189.1 170.2 222.2 249.0 243.3 157.3 203.8 177.6 156.5 199.5 170.4
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 152.0 212.2 205.1 94.9 143.2 121.2 161.6 213.3 185.1 208.5 248.0 236.8 156.8 233.0 204.3 154.9 225.6 187.5
SOUTHERN LEYTE 98.3 242.0 162.7 57.6 153.3 85.5 121.7 150.0 134.7 180.4 194.4 187.3 150.9 172.9 157.0 113.3 152.4 139.6
REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 62.9 82.7 75.7 77.0 129.0 99.0 131.3 160.0 148.0 184.0 267.9 241.5 142.2 206.3 174.2 120.5 215.3 182.0
M ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 75.9 99.2 84.2 81.8 110.3 95.4 131.1 177.2 155.6 178.6 269.3 239.1 137.5 179.9 164.8 99.7 204.1 169.7
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 77.8 89.7 82.4 88.0 99.5 92.2 145.6 161.7 154.5 203.7 259.4 235.1 154.9 186.5 171.0 150.9 199.2 177.4
I
REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
BUKIDNON 70.8 163.5 122.5 47.5 137.5 113.4 162.8 224.4 208.7 217.5 293.2 265.2 236.4 311.6 284.5 184.4 303.0 260.2
N
CAMIGUIN 109.2 120.0 114.8 118.7 126.2 123.4 133.8 140.8 137.1 174.3 179.0 177.2 154.8 173.3 164.0 120.3 132.2 124.8
LANAO DEL NORTE 68.8 107.5 88.2 59.0 127.1 98.7 164.7 195.1 177.2 236.4 273.7 257.3 179.2 270.0 204.7 180.2 242.4 196.4
D
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 67.9 85.7 76.6 97.4 121.2 106.6 136.3 167.4 152.9 222.2 267.0 247.6 147.3 181.3 167.0 151.3 193.9 175.6

A MISAMIS ORIENTAL 61.4 144.0 101.1 47.2 134.4 94.6 144.6 180.4 160.4 183.0 245.6 211.4 185.9 262.4 228.1 116.1 213.1 168.4
REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
N COMPOSTELA VALLEY 119.4 287.8 190.4 112.8 214.6 133.2 196.0 219.3 207.5 199.2 258.0 225.1 123.3 241.7 161.6 137.1 215.7 162.6
DAVAO 120.1 216.0 156.1 113.7 143.7 128.0 202.7 223.6 215.4 200.1 275.1 246.2 116.1 283.3 197.3 163.9 265.4 212.1
A DAVAO DEL SUR 87.0 148.6 113.4 85.9 152.4 129.0 130.9 229.0 186.0 131.6 277.2 197.7 92.3 243.5 131.9 93.9 268.7 180.0
DAVAO ORIENTAL 129.2 311.7 186.3 120.5 237.7 140.5 166.2 220.0 196.6 180.7 245.4 205.0 118.9 180.9 139.9 134.6 166.9 143.9
O REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
SOUTH COTABATO 68.9 114.3 95.1 68.5 127.0 103.5 116.4 189.3 153.1 128.1 216.1 163.2 90.3 155.6 114.0 74.7 173.8 119.7
COTABATO 110.8 136.3 123.4 126.2 149.8 135.4 191.3 232.7 219.2 213.8 293.8 271.0 131.4 264.9 203.8 185.4 277.5 248.7
SARANGANI 73.6 109.0 92.4 69.6 126.1 97.7 120.8 164.8 136.0 126.3 180.1 139.5 90.2 141.2 102.2 79.7 130.4 97.4
SULTAN KUDARAT 100.5 138.3 114.7 111.9 134.5 125.8 162.7 238.7 186.7 174.8 281.4 213.7 106.5 211.9 154.6 126.9 239.5 165.5
REGION XIII- CARAGA
AGUSAN DEL NORTE 134.1 250.0 174.8 131.3 159.7 140.0 141.6 180.3 158.0 179.7 221.7 198.2 180.8 249.1 201.8 88.3 171.4 113.6
AGUSAN DEL SUR 142.4 394.1 228.9 126.1 360.5 173.0 159.5 229.9 202.9 196.1 268.4 241.9 171.7 302.6 227.2 97.7 268.2 178.7
SURIGAO DEL NORTE 228.5 314.1 269.7 134.1 182.8 158.4 135.7 167.0 149.6 181.6 212.9 194.4 179.0 194.6 186.0 90.5 120.8 99.5
SURIGAO DEL SUR 216.4 434.4 295.6 135.4 375.0 209.6 155.3 234.8 194.6 191.3 254.0 228.1 168.7 199.2 182.7 93.1 168.5 135.6
ARMM
BASILAN 75.4 85.3 81.9 83.4 97.7 88.3 136.1 147.8 141.0 178.3 200.4 183.5 139.0 170.7 145.2 112.5 154.6 126.2
MAGUINDANAO 106.9 138.9 125.5 121.9 133.0 126.9 184.1 239.2 216.2 205.0 291.2 262.5 131.8 244.7 194.3 169.8 255.1 214.9
LANAO DEL SUR 77.7 123.1 104.8 84.0 134.3 122.2 173.4 221.2 200.5 245.7 293.3 275.7 195.4 276.9 238.2 194.9 277.9 232.1
SULU 63.4 86.4 71.7 79.5 99.4 88.7 147.6 163.8 157.3 193.5 247.4 223.5 159.1 212.9 196.8 150.1 216.3 192.2
 FORECAST RAINFALL per Region in (mm) and (%N)
MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST
REGION MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL
ARMM 49.9 138.9 104.8 127.6 68.8 134.3 114.8 102.4 136.1 239.2 194.3 109.9 178.3 297.3 253.4 98.9 132.3 276.1 203.5 76.3 112.5 277.5 208.2 101.8
CAR 2.4 54.3 24.4 70.4 10.4 89.2 54.3 65.0 148.7 319.4 215.6 108.1 156.7 385.6 249.1 94.3 167.4 537.1 359.8 83.2 222.1 831.9 462.8 81.5
NCR 9.1 29.4 17.7 74.7 0.0 43.2 23.7 79.9 175.8 211.6 195.0 117.7 304.7 338.3 322.9 120.3 347.9 421.2 392.3 88.2 378.8 552.6 479.1 88.7
Region 1 0.2 46.4 19.4 61.7 3.8 86.7 42.8 63.9 176.0 303.6 237.8 107.1 208.9 435.4 331.3 95.3 220.2 589.3 439.1 82.4 392.0 799.2 613.4 84.4
Region 2 18.1 165.9 58.5 90.3 20.1 163.4 62.4 69.1 139.8 287.1 204.1 108.7 148.0 329.4 200.5 101.0 163.1 425.0 247.3 87.0 167.5 681.1 283.1 89.1
Region 3 3.4 220.2 35.7 74.8 7.4 204.1 55.3 72.7 187.4 290.2 230.6 112.5 227.7 459.5 333.9 109.7 191.6 650.2 411.0 82.8 175.4 899.4 503.9 92.3
Region 4-A 4.3 192.7 84.5 92.8 0.0 151.0 79.9 74.6 143.9 237.3 186.1 116.5 194.2 330.1 283.1 122.6 105.7 392.6 288.0 98.8 117.6 508.2 245.7 93.8
Region 4-B 3.4 122.2 40.1 76.1 16.3 110.9 57.1 88.7 160.8 254.4 198.1 126.6 198.6 478.7 310.5 113.2 141.3 437.4 293.8 97.6 154.5 559.7 307.5 100.7
Region 5 80.9 255.0 171.6 117.1 44.2 148.6 107.4 87.4 144.8 183.2 160.9 106.2 217.9 286.6 261.0 130.0 164.0 316.4 242.0 99.0 119.1 243.4 187.0 101.2
Region 6 25.1 86.0 53.2 89.0 38.2 84.0 62.8 84.8 163.1 226.9 196.0 136.4 240.5 397.2 336.9 117.7 205.1 390.8 297.8 103.4 159.7 461.9 294.0 98.1
Region 7 42.4 131.7 66.9 89.1 43.7 99.2 75.6 104.6 121.7 211.3 149.3 131.1 164.9 333.7 212.6 116.3 106.3 258.1 166.4 95.2 99.0 331.7 161.6 101.3
Region 8 98.3 251.9 190.2 100.3 57.6 159.2 115.4 93.4 121.7 228.9 175.0 117.4 180.4 249.0 223.9 116.4 150.1 236.6 186.1 85.2 113.3 243.2 173.0 113.9
Region 9 62.9 99.2 80.0 111.1 77.0 129.0 96.5 108.1 131.1 177.2 151.9 110.5 178.6 269.3 239.4 103.8 137.5 206.5 170.2 78.6 99.7 215.3 176.7 98.6
Region 10 61.4 162.8 107.1 119.1 47.2 138.0 106.7 102.1 133.9 224.4 187.8 108.7 174.3 293.3 251.6 99.5 147.3 311.6 245.9 91.7 115.5 303.0 222.4 107.1
Region 11 88.1 310.9 158.1 150.2 87.9 237.7 133.0 101.3 131.3 229.0 199.6 107.1 132.4 278.9 215.4 99.2 92.6 283.1 153.1 83.3 93.8 271.4 173.3 106.6
Region 12 68.9 135.3 108.9 155.5 68.5 150.6 118.8 108.1 116.4 233.1 180.8 105.3 126.3 293.8 208.1 93.8 90.2 265.2 151.9 77.0 74.7 277.2 170.6 102.2
CARAGA 132.3 435.1 241.7 101.3 125.2 375.1 174.2 109.1 135.6 235.0 185.8 109.5 179.7 269.8 224.9 112.6 163.9 294.4 206.4 111.3 88.3 259.4 147.2 100.6

MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST

REGION MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL
Luzon 0.2 255.0 60.2 83.5 0.0 204.1 64.9 75.2 139.8 319.4 204.2 113.0 148.0 478.7 277.5 109.4 105.6 650.2 318.2 90.3 117.6 899.4 360.1 92.3
Visayas 36.4 251.9 108.7 93.3 43.7 159.2 86.1 93.2 121.7 228.9 176.0 127.9 164.9 390.9 262.1 116.9 106.3 353.2 221.6 94.4 99 402.4 213.9 104.9
Mindanao 49.9 434.4 138.0 128.3 47.2 375.0 126.0 105.3 116.4 239.2 184.0 108.3 126.3 297.3 230.1 101.3 90.2 311.6 187.5 87.3 74.7 303 181.2 103.1
 FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL for selected
Dams and Lakes in (mm) and (%N)
FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL (MARCH - AUGUST 2018 )
NAME Angat Watershed Lake Buhi Lake Lanao Magat Watershed Malinao Watershed Pantabangan Watershed San Roque Cascade WS

MIN 15.9 170.7 61.4 29.1 81.2 5.2 32.0

MAX 66.4 241.9 116.5 65.5 92.6 75.8 53.7
MARCH
MEAN 38.6 197.6 93.6 42.2 86.8 36.8 45.2
%NORMAL 78.4 124.6 121.8 92.2 96.6 46.3 101.9
MIN 18.1 104.8 47.3 40.1 78.4 10.0 66.3
MAX 64.6 147.2 132.9 77.6 94.9 86.7 89.2
APRIL
MEAN 33.1 118.6 101.0 63.8 87.9 36.5 81.0
%NORMAL 61.2 87.7 99.6 71.3 110.0 50.7 80.8
MIN 218.5 153.6 156.8 221.7 125.1 226.8 274.4
MAX 231.1 170.0 215.0 283.6 127.4 261.3 316.6
MAY
MEAN 225.1 161.4 190.5 257.0 126.2 245.8 291.9
%NORMAL 113.9 102.3 107.4 114.9 128.9 116.9 113.8
MIN 309.0 267.6 223.9 213.2 169.1 251.2 320.2
MAX 329.1 284.9 289.9 331.7 177.9 278.1 367.1
JUNE
way below normal MEAN 322.7 278.5 262.8 274.7 172.9 261.4 341.0
below normal %NORMAL 122.4 131.2 96.4 98.2 131.4 103.0 95.0
MIN 288.8 231.1 205.0 318.6 123.9 294.8 389.3
near normal
MAX 361.5 316.3 300.3 444.8 139.4 343.6 453.9
above normal JULY
MEAN 330.8 283.6 250.0 376.4 131.4 314.4 423.1
%NORMAL 83.1 108.7 84.2 64.6 82.4 87.7 57.6
MIN 316.6 185.1 178.6 335.1 109.9 296.3 635.8
MAX 414.8 240.3 274.0 649.3 127.2 506.2 823.5
AUGUST
MEAN 373.3 215.1 227.2 500.1 118.1 399.1 712.3
%NORMAL 95.3 103.9 107.7 86.8 104.1 96.0 84.4
 FORECAST RAINFALL OF RAIN STATIONS OVER
SELECTED DAM AREAS
in (mm) and (%N) FOR MAR- AUG 2018
MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST
SITES MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL
AMBUKLAODAM 48.4 106.0 86.1 82.0 299.1 113.9 346.1 94.4 430.3 55.5 741.8 83.9
ANGATDAM 14.6 78.2 29.9 66.3 223.7 115.6 327.0 122.1 364.2 84.2 418.4 92.5
APUNAN 44.8 99.4 81.6 79.1 285.0 114.0 337.5 95.3 433.8 53.0 684.9 83.3
BADAYAN 39.1 91.1 75.6 71.3 270.9 113.1 336.5 95.6 454.1 56.1 653.4 81.1
BINGADAM 48.3 107.0 85.0 82.4 301.0 113.7 346.5 94.5 424.4 57.6 749.6 84.4
BOBOK 46.5 101.5 81.9 80.5 291.1 114.3 333.4 94.5 416.9 54.8 696.2 84.9
BUNGA 30.2 60.4 29.9 57.6 254.0 116.7 272.0 98.8 332.3 77.0 481.7 92.0
way below
BUYOC 38.4 97.3 65.4 70.6 248.4 114.7 259.6 98.8 377.8 64.8 464.5 84.8
normal DANTOR 31.1 92.1 61.9 68.7 232.7 113.1 245.5 100.1 377.5 73.5 446.0 82.0
below normal DUMAYUP 48.3 99.4 62.9 73.1 252.2 115.9 251.9 100.2 355.9 66.4 424.5 89.3
near normal HALONG 34.2 89.8 67.5 68.5 249.3 113.3 281.7 97.3 414.4 64.6 527.1 81.6
above normal IPODAM 11.6 75.9 27.1 66.1 216.5 115.9 326.9 120.8 393.1 84.3 457.7 90.7
MAGATDAM 34.5 107.5 59.5 76.8 226.7 115.6 210.5 104.1 316.0 76.6 330.5 85.8
MAPUTI 46.3 77.9 30.5 57.0 227.1 113.2 319.0 122.0 315.9 82.9 353.0 96.4
MARIKIT 62.2 48.0 69.5 52.0 247.9 115.2 259.0 107.8 304.5 99.0 316.2 101.8
MATULID 39.6 79.6 42.1 66.3 223.6 114.4 327.1 123.5 337.6 83.8 381.3 95.3
NORZAGARAY 11.1 75.5 24.2 63.8 217.4 115.5 325.3 120.4 390.9 83.5 447.0 90.6
PADALIS 40.2 42.7 36.7 48.0 245.5 117.1 252.6 103.8 307.4 89.5 374.3 97.1
PANTABANGAN DAM 3.4 18.1 12.7 43.8 226.1 118.9 257.5 104.0 311.5 90.8 403.4 93.0
SANROQUEDAM 32.0 89.8 66.8 82.5 275.0 113.1 334.8 95.8 394.1 68.9 661.6 86.6
STODOMINGO 48.7 91.8 63.6 74.4 265.4 115.7 277.9 97.6 365.2 61.0 505.2 89.6
TALAGUIO 27.3 77.0 20.0 57.7 224.1 114.1 320.1 120.8 338.7 81.3 386.8 93.6
 FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS
in millimeter and percent of normal (%N)
MARCH - MAY 2018
CATCHMENT MARCH 2018 APRIL 2018 MAY 2018
MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal
LUZON
Abra RB 1.3 40.7 15.3 47.9 8.2 78.9 45.4 61.3 184.0 277.3 218.1 108.0
Abulug RB 10.5 26.9 18.1 53.9 22.6 54.3 39.3 54.5 145.8 185.2 167.2 100.4
Agno RB 8.3 54.3 22.3 83.8 20.4 89.2 59.5 84.7 226.0 319.4 253.6 111.4
Bicol RB 168.3 240.6 192.9 123.7 104.9 146.8 120.0 90.1 149.0 169.8 159.5 101.9
Bued RB 17.4 54.2 30.5 91.5 51.2 87.6 66.6 85.1 247.3 318.0 273.5 111.2
Cagayan RB 14.3 185.3 51.2 90.1 20.1 164.7 63.8 69.8 139.8 283.6 212.4 110.5
Laoag RB 0.9 13.6 6.4 32.8 3.8 42.4 21.9 38.5 176.5 203.3 191.0 100.3
Pampanga RB 3.4 108.9 22.0 69.1 7.4 134.1 38.1 61.4 204.1 264.7 225.2 113.2
Pasig-Laguna RB 5.7 99.9 40.8 90.1 0.0 125.9 50.7 88.4 165.9 220.4 190.4 119.0
Sinocalan RB 14.4 23.3 17.4 79.4 48.1 59.0 54.5 86.5 242.4 261.3 248.4 109.7
MINDANAO
Agus RB 61.4 101.1 75.6 119.1 47.3 116.2 74.3 94.8 149.9 200.3 169.0 108.7
Agusan RB 129.2 358.9 212.3 104.4 116.6 327.0 159.6 110.4 150.8 224.6 199.9 110.4
way below normal Buayan-Malungon 68.9 104.0 90.9 167.3 68.5 125.1 95.4 112.0 116.4 172.6 147.1 104.1
below normal
Cagayan de Oro 66.3 116.2 92.7 122.8 47.2 118.8 82.6 95.0 158.8 215.8 191.6 109.2
near normal
Cotabato RB 86.9 166.9 121.6 150.9 88.0 148.9 127.4 103.9 138.7 239.2 208.0 106.2
above normal
Davao RB 122.2 160.2 135.3 188.7 131.7 146.4 136.8 96.2 219.0 224.6 223.0 106.6
Tagoloan River 86.9 140.6 112.8 112.9 59.5 121.4 94.1 96.4 162.7 218.1 193.2 111.6
Tagum-Libuganon 123.7 246.5 176.4 121.2 115.4 167.0 129.4 102.2 206.3 221.4 215.0 109.3
 FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS
in millimeter and percent of normal (%N)
JUNE - AUGUST 2018
CATCHMENT JUNE 2018 JULY 2018 AUGUST 2018
MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal
LUZON
Abra RB 211.9 356.7 282.4 94.5 304.3 536.2 446.6 88.0 382.4 689.6 530.9 79.8
Abulug RB 154.5 219.9 185.3 84.1 164.5 315.7 218.4 84.9 198.5 424.9 323.3 82.3
Agno RB 279.9 424.0 353.5 99.2 326.6 601.3 455.0 77.7 491.9 830.0 656.8 86.3
Bicol RB 264.3 284.8 277.3 132.9 197.3 316.1 269.8 104.3 156.9 239.7 207.3 103.1
Bued RB 329.9 382.6 359.2 96.5 391.0 473.1 431.4 76.1 622.7 829.8 688.4 85.1
Cagayan RB 148.3 331.7 211.1 101.7 163.1 467.7 283.2 86.9 167.5 653.4 317.6 87.6
Laoag RB 205.2 271.8 238.9 87.3 243.2 435.8 325.2 80.8 393.1 547.3 477.0 85.7
Pampanga RB 251.2 417.5 310.1 110.3 272.6 557.8 369.8 81.8 229.9 710.6 450.3 91.6
Pasig-Laguna RB 266.3 357.2 308.1 120.4 277.2 453.1 359.9 96.1 202.0 552.6 363.4 90.7
Sinocalan RB 325.7 390.5 358.5 98.3 385.0 491.7 440.6 86.7 598.0 651.3 627.8 86.1
MINDANAO
Agus RB 210.6 274.7 238.8 98.6 194.5 269.2 230.5 90.2 161.5 246.7 196.3 111.1
Agusan RB 190.3 269.8 236.6 105.5 128.9 294.5 218.6 105.9 95.9 260.8 173.7 106.9
way below normal
Buayan-Malungon 132.4 175.0 151.9 90.9 90.2 103.1 94.5 82.1 74.7 151.1 115.6 104.1
below normal
Cagayan de Oro 222.6 280.2 258.0 96.3 241.7 305.2 278.2 92.0 181.4 284.2 239.9 110.6
near normal
Cotabato RB 142.7 293.8 253.2 95.1 100.1 311.6 209.8 77.9 99.0 303.0 227.7 102.9
above normal
Davao RB 219.1 278.8 260.9 96.6 130.2 271.9 208.5 83.0 216.5 271.7 252.5 106.4
Tagoloan River 219.9 270.2 242.2 99.4 247.2 308.6 288.4 106.9 185.4 286.8 238.5 111.7
Tagum-Libuganon 226.6 268.8 247.0 99.9 148.8 276.2 202.2 84.9 167.0 251.1 203.5 107.3
 MONTHLY MEAN
TEMPERATURE
FORECAST (MARCH -
AUGUST 2018)
 FORECAST RANGES OF TEMPERATURE (EXTREME)
Updated : 19 February 2018

Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18

TMAX Summary
Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range
Northern Luzon 28.2 38.0 30.3 39.3 31.2 39.6 31.2 38.0 31.6 38.3 31.0 36.7
Lowlands Luzon 31.1 37.0 32.0 38.1 32.5 38.0 32.3 37.0 31.6 36.6 31.6 36.9
Mountainous Luzon 26.0 28.4 26.8 28.5 26.2 28.0 25.3 27.1 25.3 27.4 24.7 26.6
Metro Manila 33.7 36.4 34.9 37.8 34.6 37.4 33.0 35.8 32.0 35.2 31.3 34.0
Lowlands Visayas 30.6 35.9 31.6 37.5 32.5 37.4 32.0 36.1 32.0 36.4 31.8 36.9
Lowlands Mindanao 32.0 37.5 32.7 38.1 32.9 37.2 32.4 36.5 32.5 36.2 32.3 36.0
Mountainous Mindanao 32.0 34.0 32.8 35.0 32.5 34.0 31.3 33.0 30.5 32.8 31.1 32.6

Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18

TMIN Summary
Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range
Northern Luzon 14.4 22.7 17.0 23.8 18.6 23.7 19.5 24.0 19.2 24.4 20.0 24.4
Lowlands Luzon 18.0 25.4 19.8 26.0 20.0 25.0 21.0 25.7 20.6 25.3 20.0 25.0
Mountainous Luzon 10.2 13.4 12.7 14.8 14.6 15.6 14.6 16.0 15.0 15.8 14.9 15.6
Metro Manila 19.2 24.5 20.8 25.8 22.3 25.2 22.5 25.0 22.4 24.8 22.5 24.6
Lowlands Visayas 20.0 24.4 21.0 25.0 21.6 25.1 21.9 24.9 21.5 25.2 21.8 25.1
Lowlands Mindanao 19.0 23.4 20.0 23.5 21.0 24.5 20.5 23.7 20.8 23.8 20.7 24.0
Mountainous Mindanao 14.0 16.7 15.0 16.6 16.6 18.0 16.9 18.1 16.3 18.0 16.0 18.0
 EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY (Experimental temperature forecast extremes)

Tuguegarao Tuguegarao Tuguegarao

Science Garden
Science Garden Science Garden

MARCH_PROBA FREQUENCY APRIL_PROBA FREQUENCY MAY_PROBA FREQUENCY

SG= (> 35.9 oC) 2 SG= (> 37.1 oC) 2 SG= (> 37.2 oC) 2
TUG= (> 36.8 oC) 4 TUG= (> 38.2 oC) 4 TUG= (> 38.9 oC) 4
Dry Day Forecast for March to May 2018

Dry day is defined as a day with ≤ 1 mm. of rain.

Dry Day Forecast for June to August 2018

Dry day is defined as a day with ≤ 1 mm. of rain.

 DRY DAY (MARCH TO AUGUST 2018) as of February 19, 2018 DRY DAY (MARCH TO AUGUST 2018) as of February 19, 2018

No. of Dry Days No. of Dry Days

PROVINCE MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG PROVINCE MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR) CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR)
ABRA 27 - 28 28 - 30 25 - 29 16 - 21 15 - 20 13 - 18 ABRA 27 - 28 28 - 30 25 - 29 16 - 21 15 - 20 13 - 18
BENGUET 27 - 28 26 - 28 20 - 22 11 - 15 13 - 15 10 - 12 BENGUET 27 - 28 26 - 28 20 - 22 11 - 15 13 - 15 10 - 12
IFUGAO 24 - 27 26 - 27 21 - 26 13 - 19 14 - 20 12 - 18 IFUGAO 24 - 27 26 - 27 21 - 26 13 - 19 14 - 20 12 - 18
KALINGA 26 - 28 27 - 28 25 - 27 17 - 20 17 - 22 15 - 20 KALINGA 26 - 28 27 - 28 25 - 27 17 - 20 17 - 22 15 - 20
APAYAO 25 - 27 26 - 29 26 - 29 20 - 23 20 - 24 18 - 22 APAYAO 25 - 27 26 - 29 26 - 29 20 - 23 20 - 24 18 - 22
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 25 - 28 27 - 28 22 - 26 14 - 19 14 - 21 12 - 19 MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 25 - 28 27 - 28 22 - 26 14 - 19 14 - 21 12 - 19
REGION I REGION I
ILOCOS NORTE 26 - 28 29 - 31 28 - 30 21 - 23 17 - 24 15 - 20 ILOCOS NORTE 26 - 28 29 - 31 28 - 30 21 - 23 17 - 24 15 - 20
ILOCOS SUR 28 - 28 27 - 31 21 - 29 12 - 22 13 - 18 10 - 15 ILOCOS SUR 28 - 28 27 - 31 21 - 29 12 - 22 13 - 18 10 - 15
LA UNION 28 - 28 27 - 29 21 - 23 12 - 17 13 - 15 10 - 12 LA UNION 28 - 28 27 - 29 21 - 23 12 - 17 13 - 15 10 - 12
PANGASINAN 27 - 29 27 - 30 22 - 27 15 - 21 15 - 19 11 - 14 PANGASINAN 27 - 29 27 - 30 22 - 27 15 - 21 15 - 19 11 - 14
REGION II REGION II
BATANES 17 - 18 22 - 23 24 - 25 21 - 21 19 - 21 15 - 17 BATANES 17 - 18 22 - 23 24 - 25 21 - 21 19 - 21 15 - 17
CAGAYAN 19 - 27 22 - 29 24 - 29 20 - 23 21 - 24 20 - 23 CAGAYAN 19 - 27 22 - 29 24 - 29 20 - 23 21 - 24 20 - 23
ISABELA 16 - 26 21 - 27 21 - 26 17 - 20 18 - 23 16 - 20 ISABELA 16 - 26 21 - 27 21 - 26 17 - 20 18 - 23 16 - 20
NUEVA VIZCAYA 18 - 28 21 - 27 19 - 24 13 - 17 14 - 18 11 - 16 NUEVA VIZCAYA 18 - 28 21 - 27 19 - 24 13 - 17 14 - 18 11 - 16
QUIRINO 17 - 23 20 - 25 19 - 25 16 - 18 16 - 20 15 - 17 QUIRINO 17 - 23 20 - 25 19 - 25 16 - 18 16 - 20 15 - 17
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON) REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON)
BATAAN 29 - 29 31 - 31 29 - 30 21 - 22 19 - 21 14 - 16 BATAAN 29 - 29 31 - 31 29 - 30 21 - 22 19 - 21 14 - 16
BULACAN 21 - 29 21 - 31 21 - 29 15 - 21 15 - 19 11 - 14 BULACAN 21 - 29 21 - 31 21 - 29 15 - 21 15 - 19 11 - 14
NUEVA ECIJA 19 - 29 21 - 30 20 - 28 15 - 20 16 - 19 13 - 15 NUEVA ECIJA 19 - 29 21 - 30 20 - 28 15 - 20 16 - 19 13 - 15
PAMPANGA 27 - 29 28 - 31 26 - 29 18 - 21 18 - 20 12 - 14 PAMPANGA 27 - 29 28 - 31 26 - 29 18 - 21 18 - 20 12 - 14
TARLAC 28 - 29 30 - 31 27 - 29 19 - 21 17 - 19 12 - 14 TARLAC 28 - 29 30 - 31 27 - 29 19 - 21 17 - 19 12 - 14
ZAMBALES 28 - 29 30 - 31 26 - 29 18 - 21 15 - 19 11 - 14 ZAMBALES 28 - 29 30 - 31 26 - 29 18 - 21 15 - 19 11 - 14
AURORA 14 - 21 17 - 22 16 - 22 15 - 18 15 - 20 13 - 16 AURORA 14 - 21 17 - 22 16 - 22 15 - 18 15 - 20 13 - 16
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
METRO MANILA 26 - 28 26 - 29 24 - 27 16 - 20 15 - 18 11 - 14 METRO MANILA 26 - 28 26 - 29 24 - 27 16 - 20 15 - 18 11 - 14
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON) - - - - - - REGION IV-A (CALABARZON) - - - - - -
BATANGAS 19 - 29 21 - 31 20 - 29 18 - 21 16 - 21 14 - 17 BATANGAS 19 - 29 21 - 31 20 - 29 18 - 21 16 - 21 14 - 17
CAVITE 28 - 29 28 - 31 27 - 29 18 - 22 17 - 21 14 - 16 CAVITE 28 - 29 28 - 31 27 - 29 18 - 22 17 - 21 14 - 16
LAGUNA 18 - 28 19 - 29 21 - 27 17 - 20 14 - 18 12 - 16 LAGUNA 18 - 28 19 - 29 21 - 27 17 - 20 14 - 18 12 - 16
RIZAL 20 - 27 20 - 27 21 - 25 15 - 19 14 - 15 11 - 14 RIZAL 20 - 27 20 - 27 21 - 25 15 - 19 14 - 15 11 - 14
QUEZON 11 - 24 14 - 24 16 - 24 15 - 21 14 - 19 13 - 19 QUEZON 11 - 24 14 - 24 16 - 24 15 - 21 14 - 19 13 - 19
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA) REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)
MARINDUQUE 17 - 18 19 - 19 20 - 22 20 - 21 17 - 19 18 - 18 MARINDUQUE 17 - 18 19 - 19 20 - 22 20 - 21 17 - 19 18 - 18
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 19 - 29 22 - 31 19 - 28 18 - 20 14 - 19 13 - 17 OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 19 - 29 22 - 31 19 - 28 18 - 20 14 - 19 13 - 17
ORIENTAL MINDORO 18 - 23 20 - 25 18 - 22 18 - 20 14 - 18 15 - 17 ORIENTAL MINDORO 18 - 23 20 - 25 18 - 22 18 - 20 14 - 18 15 - 17
ROMBLON 19 - 23 20 - 23 19 - 24 20 - 21 14 - 17 16 - 17 ROMBLON 19 - 23 20 - 23 19 - 24 20 - 21 14 - 17 16 - 17
PALAWAN 26 - 30 26 - 30 24 - 28 16 - 22 13 - 19 10 - 23 PALAWAN 26 - 30 26 - 30 24 - 28 16 - 22 13 - 19 10 - 23
REGION V (BICOL) REGION V (BICOL)
ALBAY 13 - 20 13 - 17 17 - 21 17 - 19 16 - 17 16 - 18 ALBAY 13 - 20 13 - 17 17 - 21 17 - 19 16 - 17 16 - 18
CAMARINES NORTE 12 - 15 15 - 18 20 - 23 17 - 20 18 - 19 18 - 19 CAMARINES NORTE 12 - 15 15 - 18 20 - 23 17 - 20 18 - 19 18 - 19
CAMARINES SUR 14 - 25 15 - 20 17 - 23 18 - 19 16 - 19 16 - 19 CAMARINES SUR 14 - 25 15 - 20 17 - 23 18 - 19 16 - 19 16 - 19
CATANDUANES 4 - 26 8 - 20 13 - 17 14 - 20 12 - 17 17 - 18 CATANDUANES 4 - 26 8 - 20 13 - 17 14 - 20 12 - 17 17 - 18
MASBATE 10 - 19 16 - 22 22 - 26 20 - 23 17 - 20 16 - 24 MASBATE 10 - 19 16 - 22 22 - 26 20 - 23 17 - 20 16 - 24
SORSOGON 7 - 15 13 - 15 17 - 21 18 - 20 16 - 18 16 - 24 SORSOGON 7 - 15 13 - 15 17 - 21 18 - 20 16 - 18 16 - 24
 Tropical Cyclone
Forecast
MONTH NUMBER OF TC
MARCH 2018 0 OR 1
APRIL 2018 0 OR 1
MAY 2018 1 OR 2
JUNE 2018 1 OR 2
JULY 2018 2 TO 4
AUGUST 2018 2 OR 3
6 – 9 TCs from
March – August 2018

2018/2/21
 Monthly Rainfall
Forecast

Rainfall Condition (based

on recent conditions):
March – August 2018
SUMMARY
La Niña still persists in the tropical Pacific, with likely transition to
ENSO-neutral during March-April-May 2018 season;

• ENSO Alert System Status – LA NINA ADVISORY

• Rainfall Forecast for March – August 2018:

• March – generally below normal rainfall condition in Luzon while near to
above normal over the Visayas and Mindanao;
• April - generally below normal over Luzon while near normal in the Visayas
and Mindanao;
• May to June – generally near normal with patches of above normal rainfall
in the Visayas area;
• July - below to near normal rainfall over the whole country
• August – generally near normal for the whole country with above normal
rainfall is forecasted in eastern Visayas
SUMMARY
• Generally, near average to slightly warmer than average
surface temperature is expected over the coming
months over most parts of the country;

• 6 to 9 tropical cyclones may develop or enter the

Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) from March to
August 2018.
 https://www1.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/

PAGASA will continue to closely monitor

the situation and updates/advisories
shall be issued as appropriate.
Weekly ENSO monitoring is available at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/index.php/climate/climate-prediction/el-nino-
southern-oscillation-enso-status

Next National Climate Outlook Forum (100th) scheduled on

March 22, 2018
45
 The Weather and Climate Authority

MARAMING
SALAMAT!
DESCRIPTION: Warm (red) and cold (blue)
periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5oC for the
Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) [3 month running mean
of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region
(5oN-5oS, 120o-170oW)], based oncentered 30-
year base periods updated every 5 years.

For historical purposes, periods of below and

above normal SSTs are colored in blue and red
when the threshold is met for a minimum of 5
consecutive overlapping seasons. The ONI is one
measure of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and
other indices can confirm whether features
consistent with a coupled ocean-atmosphere
phenomenon accompanied these periods.