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Abstract
Cocoa occupies 6 million hectares in humid coastal West Africa where 70% of the world supply is grown, 90%
of which is produced on 2 million family farms of 2 hectares or less. Here, at least 16 million people depend on
cocoa but earn only $100/person/year from the crop. There is need to optimize the farming system, minimize the
environmental impact of technologies, and improve socio-economic dynamics. This study identifies areas with
potential for intensified cocoa farming and where maximum impact to household income could be achieved
without deforestation. The selection involves defining suitability criteria, preparing an inventory of available
data, determining suitability based on identified criteria, and combining suitability into hierarchical prefer-
ences based on weights proposed by local experts. GIS and Multi-Criteria land Evaluation technique using
biophysical, socioeconomic, and demographic variables were employed in selection. Nineteen administrative
units were selected in Nigeria where the intervention project could be implemented.
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International Journal of Applied Geospatial Research, 3(1), 72-86, January-March 2012 73
The average cocoa farming family in viable and sustainable cocoa production system
West Africa earns US$100 per person per year in West Africa.
from cocoa (IITA, 2002; ICCO, 2007). The It is therefore important to carefully target
long-term social and economic well-being of the program’s intervention in the cocoa sector
these families and their communities depends of the West and Central African countries to en-
upon the viability and sustainability of the West sure maximum program impact and conformity
African cocoa sector. The sector is also vital with national agricultural sector priorities. This
to national economies with cocoa among the will include the identification and selection of
top three agricultural export products in each communities through systematic spatial target-
target country (Bastide & Perret, 2007). To ing that meets multiple criteria. World Cocoa
ensure this, cocoa farming needs to become a Foundation (WCF) has asked IITA Sustainable
profitable, income-generating profession that Tree Crop Program (STCP) to lead the process
allows farmers, both women and men, to provide of site selection, building on its recent experi-
adequately for their families. ence in conducting a similar multi-criteria and
West African cocoa farmers face numerous multi-stage systematic selection of target dis-
challenges such as production and marketing tricts/communities for a multi-sectoral project
inefficiencies as well as stagnant technologi- in Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana in collaboration
cal development. For instance, the majority of with local expertise.
farmers sell their cocoa individually, a few bags In view of the complexity involved in the
at a time, to itinerant buyers without access to process of decision making, the method of
market information and this reduces their earn- multi-criteria land evaluation (MCE) is adopted
ings relative to the market price. in this study (Khoi & Murayama, 2010). MCE
In Nigeria, like the rest of West Africa, is the process of determining the fitness of a
cocoa cultivation has witnessed significant given parcel of land for a defined use (Stainer,
changes in the last few decades due to factors 1991). An MCE involves the selection of the
such as variations in international demand, biophysical or socio-economic factors, or both,
prices, and policy measures implemented by of an area; the combination of the selected
both the Federal and State governments (Cocoa factors with the decision-makers preferences
Research Institute of Nigeria [CRIN], 2008). allows one to create a composite suitability
Cocoa was the most important agricultural ex- index (Sui, 1993). The MCE is an effective
port crop during the 1960-1970 period, earning tool for multiple criteria decision-making issues
a significant percentage of the foreign exchange (Malcewski, 2006). The purpose of the MCE is
income (Mustapha, 1999). The production in- to investigate a number of choice possibilities
creased gradually to a maximum of 308,000 t in in the light of multiple criteria and multiple ob-
1970-1971 but dropped drastically to 110,000 t jectives (Cover, 1991). Integration of the MCE
in 1990-1991. This was because of the diversion and GIS (GIS-MCE) can help land-use planners
of government policy during the First, Second and managers to improve decision-making
and Third Development plan periods (1970- processes (Malcewski, 1999). GIS allows the
1985) into petroleum and food production, and computation of assessment factors and MCE
the poor price policy of the Marketing Board aggregates them into a land suitability index.
which resulted in the abandonment of cocoa This paper aims to identify potential land
farms (Mustapha, 1999). suitability for cocoa, based not only on biophysi-
In view of the undulating nature of the cal but also socioeconomic and infrastructural
cocoa sector as a result of factors such as socio- variables in accordance with the framework for
economics, government policies, management land evaluation developed by the Food Agricul-
practices, and declining natural resources (Bas- ture Organization of the United Nations (FAO,
tide & Perret, 2007), it is necessary to seek a 1976) using GIS, a decision support system
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74 International Journal of Applied Geospatial Research, 3(1), 72-86, January-March 2012
involving the integration of spatially refer- Input Data and Data Sources
enced data in a problem solving environment
(Cowen,1988), and to simultaneously examine The input data used for this study were based
major socio-economic factors influencing co- on the selected evaluation factors discussed in
coa farming with respect to enabling optimum the next part. They include a gridded rainfall,
cropping for maximizing productivity while temperature, relative humidity map, vector soil
reducing environmental impacts. map, road network map, and cocoa production
and other relevant socioeconomic data (Table
1). The climate grid surface data were obtained
Methodology from Worldclim - Global climate data, database
documented in Hijmans, Cameron, Parra, Jones,
The Study Area and Jarvis (2005) at resolution of 30 arc seconds
The study area comprises the cocoa growing (approximately 1 km) (http://www.worldclim.
region of Nigeria, consisting of the South West, org/). Relative Humidity data were obtained
South East, and South-South geopolitical zones. from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of the
Specifically it consists of the 14 cocoa growing University of East Anglia, UK as described
States (Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Cross by New, Lister, Hulme, and Makin (2000).
River, Delta, Edo, Ekiti, Osun, Ondo, Oyo, Protected area data and digital elevation model
Ogun, Kwara, Kogi, and Taraba). (DEM) were extracted for the study area from
The cocoa growing area in Nigeria lies global databases (SRTM, 2000). Soil depth, soil
mainly below latitude 8 °N within the lowland organic matter, and soil pH factor maps were
rain forest and forest transition ecological zones extracted from the digital soil map of the world
(Figure 1). Total annual rainfall of the cocoa (FAO, 1974). Road density, an indication of
growing areas of Nigeria ranges from 1200 mm the infrastructural development of the region,
to 3000 mm. The mean minimum temperature is was extracted from the road network data by
between 20 °C and 22 °C; the mean maximum computing the total length of road (km) divided
during the dry season varies from 31 °C to 32 by area (km²) in each local government area
°C and in the wet season from 27 °C to 29 °C (LGA). The resolution of all raster factor maps
(Wood & Lass, 1987). was set at 1 km × 1 km. These data were used
The elevation of the study area ranges from for delineating areas suitable for sustainable
50 to 2000 m above sea level. More than 50% cocoa production.
of the area falls within elevation range between
Cocoa Multi-Criteria Land
200 and 400 m while about 10% of the areas
Evaluation
have high elevation of above 800 m. The regions
of high elevation occur at the extreme eastern The GIS Multi-criteria procedure for the cocoa
part of the study area at the border between cultivation suitability assessment in the cocoa
Cameroon and Nigeria. growing region included several stages that
Most of the study area has a high population are framed in Figure 2. The determination of
density generally above 200 persons/km². Mean the relevant factors was the starting step in the
population density of 185 person/km² in the assessment and was followed by standardizing
study area is greater than the national average the factors, weighting the factors, combining the
of about 153 persons/km². About 46 million of factors with their weights, and finally reclas-
the national population of 140 million reside sifying the suitability into three levels of low,
within the 14 cocoa growing States (National medium, and high. The procedures and algo-
Population Commission [NPC], 2007) rithms available in ArcGIS 9.3 (Environmental
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International Journal of Applied Geospatial Research, 3(1), 72-86, January-March 2012 75
Figure 1. The study area showing ecological zones and protected area of the Cocoa Growing
Region of Nigeria
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76 International Journal of Applied Geospatial Research, 3(1), 72-86, January-March 2012
on the number of FFS for the cocoa growing (1995) was used for rating the biophysical land
region of Nigeria were obtained from IITA, suitability classes which implies that all rating
2008 and a simple attribute query operation was below a given threshold was considered limiting
performed in GIS to select States that had at the overall suitability of such area.
least ten FFS. According to the weight assigned Binary reclassification method was applied
to this factor, all States that met this condition to each climatic layer. All pixels that met the
were included and those that failed to meet this suitable range of rainfall (1500-3000) mm,
were excluded from further analysis (Nath et minimum temperature (18-21°C), maximum
al., 2000; Son & Shrestha, 2008). temperature (29-32°C), and relative humid-
ity (70-100%) were given codes of 1 and
Cocoa Suitability Assessment those outside those ranges were coded 0. The
Based on Biophysical Factors resulting intermediate layers were combined
in a weighted algebraic operation with higher
Climate plays a fundamental role generally weights of 55% given to rainfall and the other
in agriculture and in cocoa production. The climatic factors had weights of 15% assigned
quantity and quality of yields can be affected by to them (Zuidema et al., 2005). This resulted in
water stress and heat stress (Kassam, Velthuizen a climatic suitability map (Figure 2). A similar
Van, Fischer, & Shah, 1991). The limitation procedure was applied to soil conditions as
condition method of land evaluation described specified in Table 1 and the map of soil suitabil-
by Sys, Ranst, and Debaveye (1991a, 1991b) as ity was obtained. The combination of climatic
described by various researchers, such as Maes, and soil suitability resulted in biophysical land
Vereecken, and Darius (1987) and Rodriguez suitability (Figure 2).
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International Journal of Applied Geospatial Research, 3(1), 72-86, January-March 2012 77
Bowen and Hollinger (2004) reported that Cocoa Suitability Assessment Based
precipitation and temperature follow the “law on Socio-Economic Environment
of the minimum”. This means if a variable is
limiting, the species cannot be grown, even if The third set objective is to identify an area
all the other variables are not limiting (Holz- that has the potential for impact on cocoa
kämper, Calancaa, & Fuhrer, 2010). Hence all household income. To evaluate land based on
areas that did not fall within the suitable zones this, we needed the following socioeconomic
of biophysical factors were excluded from the parameters; cocoa production, cocoa farm gate
next step of evaluation. price, and food crop farm size. Cocoa production
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78 International Journal of Applied Geospatial Research, 3(1), 72-86, January-March 2012
data in cocoa growing LGAs is the quantity (t) implied a sparse population of farmers limit-
of cocoa purchased in the main cocoa season ing the number of farmers that can be reached
of the year 2005. This was chosen to reflect the through the project. An area with a very high
current status of cocoa production and also to population density, on the other hand, becomes
give an indication of the gap between the current a constraint on land availability for cocoa farm
and potential production levels. The production land expansion. Hence only cocoa farming areas
data were obtained from CRIN (2008). Higher where population densities are between 50 and
production areas are of high priority in the selec- 500 persons/km² fall within suitable ranges in
tion process, hence suitable LGAs must have the selection process.
an annual production of at least 500 t (Table 1). Road development and access to infra-
Average food crop farm size is another structure was another factor considered in the
item of socio-economic data employed in the selection process. Road density in each LGA
decision- making process. It is an indication of was used as a proxy for access to infrastruc-
high potential for household food security in the ture and this was derived from both paved and
cash crop economy and a measure of sustainable unpaved roads. Road density is defined as the
development in cocoa growing areas. LGAs total length of road network per unit area (km/
with high food crop farm size are considered km2). Digitized road data were obtained from
suitable in the selection process and so a cutoff the GIS database of the Geospatial Laboratory,
point of at least 5 ha was set for inclusion in IITA. Areas with a road density from 0.10 to
the suitability zones. 0.50 were considered useful in the selection
In addition, data on farm gate prices process because places with higher values cor-
measured in price per bag of cocoa were also respond with a very high population density and
included in socio-economic environmental lower values correspond with water bodies or
considerations for sustainable cocoa production. forest reserves and are classified as unsuitable
Areas where prices are low suggests poor mar- for the project.
keting infrastructure while high prices are good The percentage of cocoa farmers registered
indicators of profitability of cocoa farming in the in farmers’ organizations was also used in the
area. These data were obtained on LGA levels selection. Farmers who belong to registered
from CRIN, (2008). Based on cocoa experts’ farmers’ organizations have access to input,
opinion, areas with low prices are the priority credit, and warehousing. One of the project’s
for project intervention in this study; hence the objectives is to identify areas with the potential
cutoff point for this was set at a maximum of to enhance program efficiency. LGAs that have
N9000 per bag in the LGA (Table 1). at least 40% of their farmers registered in a
All these socio-economic layers were farmers’ organization were considered suitable
combined in simple algebraic operations after in the study.
suitable ranges had been ranked and resulted in Spatial overlay of the criteria layers was
the socio-economic suitability layer (Figure 2). performed in iterative multi-stage procedures
(Figure 2). All biophysical criteria layers were
Cocoa Suitability Assessment combined in additive raster overlay while
Based on Demographic and similar procedures were employed for socio-
Infrastructural Project Environment economic and demographic factors. All the
intermediate outputs were then combined to
The population density is the number of persons/ give the final priority area. A protected area
km² and this was obtained from the Nigerian layer was used to exclude all of the suitable
Population census of 2006 (NPC, 2007). At area that belongs to a national park, forest or
the stakeholders’ meeting, it was agreed that game reserve.
an area with a very low population density
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International Journal of Applied Geospatial Research, 3(1), 72-86, January-March 2012 79
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80 International Journal of Applied Geospatial Research, 3(1), 72-86, January-March 2012
Figure 3. (a) Cocoa growing States showing government support as indicated by number of
Farmer Field Schools; (b) cocoa land suitability; (c) cocoa suitability based on socio-economic
factors; (d) cocoa suitability based on demographic and infrastructural factors
income and preserve land resources, an adequate Osun, Ogun, Kogi, Kwara, and Ekiti. The pro-
understanding of the socio-economic context portion of moderately suitable land was much
of production is important to accommodate the larger at about 30% (Table 2) and was found in
real needs of land users. almost all the 14 cocoa growing States except
The result of cocoa land assessment based Taraba and Adamawa. The higher suitability
on demographic and infrastructural constraints observed in the southwestern part of Nigeria
is presented in Figure 3d and Table 2. Based on is probably influenced by the higher level of
these factors, highly suitable areas (10%, Table farmers’ organization in this region where well
2) occurred in six cocoa growing States, Oyo, organized cocoa farmers have been reported
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International Journal of Applied Geospatial Research, 3(1), 72-86, January-March 2012 81
(Oduwole, 2004; Oluyole & Sanusi, 2009). It can also be concluded that the integra-
Membership of farmers’ associations is crucial tion of spatial databases and expert knowledge
as it has been found to improve the adoption of significantly enhances the decision-making
new technologies and to raise farmers’ income capacity when land suitability evaluation is un-
(Agbeniyi, Ogunlade & Oluyole, 2010) dertaken. Moreover, the approach highlights the
The final selected area based on all factors participatory decision-making process (East-
is shown in Figure 4 and reveals that five States man, Jin, Kyem, & Toledano, 1992). Therefore,
have suitable sites. This is due to the limiting it helps to minimize and solve conflicts among
priority condition of government support (Fig- competing interests in the area of cocoa land-
ure 3a). Furthermore areas that were suitable use management.
based on other factors such as land and socio- The GIS-MCE approach has been widely
economic variables have also been excluded applied in land suitability analysis (Malcewski,
where they fall within a protected area. Hence 2006), however, the application of the method in
it is not surprising that the highly suitable area cocoa sustainable land management is relatively
was only 3.4% while the moderately suitable new in Nigeria. The MCE of soil, topography,
places were only about 6% (Table 2). More than and socioeconomic factors was exemplified
87% of the study area was not suitable for this to be useful for delineating areas suitable for
project’s intervention sites. cocoa production in the region. In particular,
Table 3 lists the selected LGAs and it shows the involvement of local experts was vital to
that 19 LGAs were selected, three of which obtaining consistent results. The experts played
belong to the high suitability category while key roles in the selection of the evaluation
seven were in the moderately suitable area. Nine factors and in the determination of the factor
LGAs were found in the low suitability catego- weights. The application of this paper can be
ry. A total area of about 20,000 km² was se- useful for the managers and planners of cocoa
lected. High suitability LGAs were distributed sustainable projects.
evenly among the three top high-producing States The study shows that GIS databases of
of Ondo, Cross River, and Osun. Moderately different formats and sources can be efficiently
suitable areas can be found in all the selected integrated to establish a land suitability assess-
States except in Abia where the only selected ment for cocoa production. The methodology
area was in the low suitability category. is useful for identifying priority areas for cocoa
farming, and thus it contributes to improving
the efficiency of conservation and of sustainable
Conclusion and land management.
Recommendation The land suitability information produced
in the recent research is valuable. However, the
Though the GIS-MCE approach provides an
socio-economic information was based on a
effective framework for land evaluation, the
single survey carried out by the Cocoa Research
selection of assessment factors and the iden-
Institute of Nigeria in 2005 which has its limi-
tification of a suitable range for each factor
tations. More comprehensive socio-economic
have a direct influence on the results. In this
factors and other infrastructural variables could
study, the factors were selected based on the
be used to enhance the accuracy of the results
experts’ opinion; therefore they represent a
obtained. Therefore, we recommend that fu-
considerable share of the factors relevant to the
ture studies should consider broader and more
suitability of cocoa growing areas in the region.
detailed socio-economic information to offer
For instance, the inclusion of the government
decision-makers a comprehensive basis for a
priority and investment variable has a strong
feasible strategy, and sound decisions about
influence on the States selected for the project’s
more sustainable cocoa production in Nigeria.
intervention sites.
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82 International Journal of Applied Geospatial Research, 3(1), 72-86, January-March 2012
Figure 4. The study area showing cocoa suitability based on all biophysical, socio-economic,
and demographic factors, including government support
Table 3. Selected Local Government Area (LGA) for cocoa sustainable project
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International Journal of Applied Geospatial Research, 3(1), 72-86, January-March 2012 83
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International Journal of Applied Geospatial Research, 3(1), 72-86, January-March 2012 85
Kai Sonder is currently the head of the GIS unit of the International Maize and Wheat Improve-
ment Center (CIMMYT) based in the HQ in Texcoco, Mexico. The unit provides spatial data and
analysis, targeting, as well as training on GIS to all of CIMMYT’s scientists and projects as well
as partners applied to development oriented agricultural research on maize, wheat and conser-
vation agriculture in developing countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America. Until end of 2009
he held the position of Manager of the Geospatial Lab at the International Institute of Tropical
Agriculture (IITA) in its HQ in Ibadan, Nigeria, having joined IITA in mid 2006. The geospatial
lab provides support on GIS application, spatial data provision and analysis, agro meteorology
as well as targeting and GIS training to all of IITA’s projects. This work was mainly centered on
crop related analysis on maize, cassava, cowpea, yams, banana/plantain and soybean in SSA
as well as socioeconomic work related to the value chains and impact of these crops. Previ-
ously (2002-2006) Kai Sonder worked as a postdoctoral fellow at the International Livestock
Research Institute (ILRI) based in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. His research areas included forage
trees in dry land as well as highland environments and work on livestock water productivity
in the Nile basin. He also worked on GIS applications for plant and animal genetic resources
units and projects within ILRI. Kai Sonder holds a PhD from the University of Hohenheim in
Stuttgart, Germany, having done his thesis research on soil conservation and erosion model-
ing in the Southern Colombian Andean hillsides while working at the International Centre for
Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) in Cali, Colombia. He also received a MS degree in tropical plant
production and agroecology from the Justus-Liebig-University in Giessen, Germany. He is a
member of the Council for Tropical and Subtropical Agricultural Research (ATSAF) in Germany.
Olusoji Oduwole is a Deputy/Assistant Director, Farming Systems Research and Extension (FSR
&E) department of Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria, (CRIN). He had BS, MS and PhD in
Agricultural Economics from the University of Ife, 1981, University of Ibadan in 1985 and the
Federal University of Technology Akure in 2005 respectively. At CRIN, he has been working
as a Research Scientist on the economic aspects of Cocoa, Coffee, Cashew, Kola and Tea as it
affects the production and management of the crops and farmers productivity. He coordinated
the survey of Cocoa production area in Nigeria in 2005 and has been working on improving
farmer’s livelihood.
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86 International Journal of Applied Geospatial Research, 3(1), 72-86, January-March 2012
Chris Okafor is the Country Manager (Nigeria) of the Sustainable Tree Crops Program (STCP)
managed by the Ibadan-based International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA). He suc-
cessfully led the implementation of a 3-year (2002-2005) pilot phase of the program in Nigeria.
He is presently providing leadership in implementing a follow up 5-year (2006-2011) country
program strategies in Nigeria. This assignment includes building partnerships to achieve con-
certed and integrated efforts for the transformation of cocoa-farming communities in Nigeria.
More recently, Chris received additional responsibility to implement the cocoa productivity
improvement component of a five-year (2009 – 2013) Cocoa Livelihoods Program (CLP). The
Program is the direct result of a close partnership with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation,
the World Cocoa Foundation and a consortium of technical organizations including IITA/STCP,
Technoserve, GTZ, ACDI/VOCA and SOCODEVI. CLP focuses on doubling the income of one
third of the cocoa farming households in Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Liberia and Nigeria
within ten years. Prior to joining STCP, Chris had been involved, for 14 years, in managing
the IITA human resource development programs including graduate scholarship programs for
national agricultural research and development systems in sub-Saharan Africa. Chris holds a
PhD (Program Evaluation) from the University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria and he is a mem-
ber of professional bodies such as the Nigerian Institute of Management (NIM), International
Agricultural Centers Training Group, American Evaluation Association and International As-
sociation of Facilitators.
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