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GISN22 Exam
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1) Describe the typical patterns in the global circulation that can be used to determine where the
driest and most moist places are on Earth, give some large scale (global) and small scale (regional)
examples. (10 p)

The major global climate system components are the atmosphere, the hydrosphere (the ocean,
rivers and lakes), the cryosphere (glaciers, sea ice and ice sheets), the land surface and the
biosphere (vegetation and other living systems on land and in the ocean).However, physical
processes within each component and interactions between these components are not yet well
known.

The sun is the source of the energy available to drive Earth’s climate system. Atmospheric
circulation is driven by the uneven horizontal distribution of net incoming radiation on the
earth’s surface. The amount of net incoming radiation depends on latitude. Net incoming
radiation is higher on the tropics, the atmosphere (and oceans) respond to this uneven
distribution of radiation by attempting to move heat from the tropics and subtropics to the middle
and high latitudes, where there is a net radiative loss of heat. Convection, the vertical process of
heat transport, and advection, the horizontal process of heat and moisture transport, work
together to accomplish this goal. Vegetation influences climate through its effects on the surface
energy budget. Ecosystems affect net radiation primarily through albedo (shortwave reflectance).
Most absorbed energy is released to the atmosphere as latent heat flux (evapotranspiration) and
sensible heat flux. Latent heat flux cools the surface and transfers water vapor to the atmosphere,
whereas sensible heat flux warms the surface air. Deserts experience large net longwave energy
losses because their dry smooth surfaces and little vegetation cover leading to high surface
temperatures, and limited moisture with negative feedback to support vegetation
Earth’s latitudinal atmospheric circulation is driven by rising air at the equator and subsiding air
at the poles. Radiative Forcing and the Coriolis effect1 produce three major cells of vertical
atmospheric circulation (the Hadley, Ferrell, and Polar cells). Air warms and rises at the equator
due to intense heating. After reaching the tropopause, the equatorial air moves poleward to about
30°N and S latitudes, where it descends and either returns to the equator, forming the Hadley
cell, or moves poleward. Cold dense air at the poles subsides and moves toward the equator until
it encounters poleward-moving air at about 60°N and S. Here the air rises and moves either
poleward to replace air that has subsided at the poles (the polar cell) or moves toward the equator
to form the Ferrell cell. Also shown are the horizontal patterns of atmospheric circulation
consisting of the prevailing surface winds (the easterly trade winds in the tropics and the
westerlies in the temperate zones). The boundaries between these zones are either low-pressure
zones of rising air (the ITCZ and the polar front) or high-pressure zones of subsiding air (the
subtropical high-pressure belt and the poles).

Source: Chapin III, F. S., Matson, P. A., Vitousek, P.M., 2011. Principles of Terrestrial Ecosystem Ecology, 2nd
Ed., Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2011

1
Tendency, due to Earth’s rotation, of winds to be deflected to the right in the northern hemisphere and to the left
in the southern hemisphere.
Precipitation is the major water input to most terrestrial ecosystems. Evaporation and
transpiration are also other climate variables which determine whether a place will be moist or
dry. In addition to global atmospheric circulation, the vegetation type also influences the amount
of precipitation a place receives. In tropical rain forests where large tree canopies are common,
the amount of evapotranspiration is high with correspondingly high precipitation cycled through
the hydrologic cycle.

Tropical wet forests (rainforests) occur from 12°N to 3°S and correspond to the ITCZ. These
forests have consistently high temperatures and high precipitation. In comparison, Subtropical
deserts located at 25–30°N and S have a warm, dry climate because of the subsidence of air in
the descending Hadley cell.

In a regional context, precipitation may be influenced by topography. A good example is the

Ethiopian highlands which receive more than 1,200 mm/annum whereas the surrounding
lowlands in eastern parts of the country receive only 100mm/annum.
2 a) Explain what is meant by the concept of "Radiative Forcing" (RF), and give the scientific units it is
typically expressed in. (1p)

Radiative forcing or climate forcing is the difference between insolation (sunlight) absorbed by
the Earth and energy radiated back to space. Positive radiative forcing means Earth receives
more incoming energy from sunlight than it radiates to space. This net gain of energy will cause
warming. Conversely, negative radiative forcing means that Earth loses more energy to space
than it receives from the sun, which produces cooling. Typically, radiative forcing is quantified
at the tropopause in units of watts per square meter (W/m2) of the Earth's surface.

b) What, according to the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC (published in 2013), have been the major
contributions to radiative forcing (RF) of the climate system since 1750? Distinguish between natural
and human RF, the contribution to global warming and cooling, and RF uncertainty. (3p)

The major contributions to radiative forcing (RF) of the climate system since 1750 have been
GHG (Green House Gas) emissions due to industrialization. There are two broad mechanisms for
climate responses due to radiative forcing. The first mechanism is feedback through rise in the
concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), especially carbon dioxide (CO2),
methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O). The second mechanism is modulating the absorption or
distribution of solar energy in the atmosphere or at the land surface due to land surface changes
(i.e. land use changes).

Carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere has increased by 37% since 1750 , exerting 1.66

W m−2 of new GHG forcing. Methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and tropospheric O3 have

increased 152%, 18%, and 36%, respectively, accounting for 0.6, 0.16, and 0.35 W m−2 of new

GHG forcing2.

The natural radiative forcing come from natural processes such as volcanic activity which spews
out ashes which would reduce the surface temperature by blocking sunlight reaching earth’s
surface or resulting in more warming due to release of GHGs.

2
Field, C. B., Lobell,D. B., Peters, H. A. and Chiariello, N. R., Feedbacks of Terrestrial Ecosystems to Climate
Change, Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 2007. 32:1–29
Figure: The contribution of human-induced and natural radiative forcings3.

c) How does the *modelled* global average annual surface temperature compare to the *observed*
global average annual surface temperature when the climate models do not include human
contributions to RF? (2p)

Modelled global average annual surface temperature compared to the observed surface
temperature is lesser when the contribution of anthropogenic sources to radiative forcing because
greenhouse gas emissions are known to trap heat and increase earth’s surface temperature.

d) Describe the modelled spatial/geographic and seasonal variability in surface temperature and
precipitation typically seen in the climate projections made by the climate models that contributed to
the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC. (3p)

The modelled surface temperature will be generally higher leading to heat waves. There will be
increased variability in precipitation where dry places will be more drier and wetter places will
be more wetter with increase in intensity of rainfall.

3
Chapin III, F. S., Matson, P. A. , Vitousek, P.M.,2011. Principles of Terrestrial Ecosystem Ecology, 2nd Ed.,
Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2011
e) Speculate as to how the modelled spatial/geographic variability in annual average surface
temperature typically seen in climate projections might change if human aerosols were removed from
the climate model projections. (2p)

As human aerosols are sources of GHGs, the removal of aerosols would reduce the increase in
annual surface temperature.
H

3 a) Give an example of a feedback loop starting with increasing air temperatures in the Arctic. (4p)

Increasing air temperature in the arctic leadings to melting ice, instead of reflecting ice/snow ,
the surface absorbs and release solar radiation (becomes low albedo) triggering a feedback of
further increase in air temperature. Changes in ecosystem albedo explain in part why high-
latitude regions are warming more rapidly than low latitudes. As climate warms, snow, lake ice,
and sea ice melt earlier in the spring, replacing a reflective snow-covered surface with a dark
absorptive water body. This process, together with the resulting change in surface temperature,
referred to as the snow (or ice) albedo feedback.

b) Describe the impacts of changes from a human perspective – why should we care about the feedback
loop you have described? (2p)

The feedback loop is likely to cause a number of climate change induced hazards such as sea
level rise leading to coastal flooding, increase in surface air temperature affecting atmospheric
circulation ( intensity in precipitation) and loss of habitat for polar species. However, there is an
economic opportunity in terms of access to new natural resources such as petroleum and fishing
grounds and new sea routes.