Lesson Plan Title: Probability in Society

Date: TBD
Subject: Mathematics Grade: 9
Topic: Statistics and Probability
Essential Question: How is probability used in society? Why is it important?

Materials:
- Math Makes Sense 9 textbook
- http://www.createdreamexplore.com/2017/02/tired-of-same-ol-graphing-questions.html
- Plastic water bottles half filled with water

Stage 1- Desired Results – you may use student friendly language

What do they need to understand, know, and/or able to do?

Students will know what probability is and how it is used outside the classroom. They will be able to know the
difference between theoretical, subjective, and experimental probability. They will also be able to display
probability in three different ways.

Broad Areas of Learning:

Developing Lifelong Learners – Students who are engaged in applying mathematical knowledge will be able
to apply it to society, will be able to relate it to real life learning. Students will also develop understandings of
mathematics that will support further learning in new mathematical concepts that relate to personal
interests.
Developing a Sense of Self and Community – This lesson allows students to work together to share and
evaluate their ideas and strategies when working in pairs and groups. Students can develop a deeper
understanding by learning from their peers and seeing different perspectives through discussion.
Developing Engaged Citizens – Students will learn more about their classmates as they work in pairs and
groups, and discuss concepts in class. They will develop a greater respect for differing opinions as they discuss
concepts within class.

Cross-Curricular Competencies:
Developing thinking – Students are challenged to think critically and creatively in this lesson. They will use
inquiry by asking their classmates questions to create discussion. They will also develop their thinking by
working questions.
Developing Identity and Interdependence – All the ideas and abilities of students will be valued. Students will
have interactions and discussions with their classmates and give constructive feedback to one another. They
will be responsible for their own learning by completing their assignments to further their learning.
Developing Literacies – Students will engage in developing their understandings of language in mathematics
and their ability to use it in real life situations. They will make sense of this language through practical
application.
Developing Social Responsibility – Students will respectfully work together as a class with the teacher, as well
as in small groups. They will construct ideas and strategies together. Students will allow for different opinions
and perspectives when asking each other questions.
Outcome(s):

SP9.3 – Demonstrate an understanding of the role of probability in society.

PGP Goals:

3.2 the ability to use a wide variety of responsive instructional strategies and methodologies to accommodate
learning styles of individual learners and support their growth as social, intellectual, physical and spiritual
beings.

Stage 2- Assessment

Assessment FOR Learning (formative) Assess the students during the learning to help determine next steps.

The formative assessment for this lesson comes in many forms. Students will be assessed through their
understanding of assigned questions. I will observe their behaviours as they work in pairs and groups while
playing interactive games as well as brainstorming and discussing ideas.

Assessment OF Learning (summative) Assess the students after learning to evaluate what they have learned.

There is no formal summative assessment for this lesson. Students will complete a homework assignment but
will not be given a grade for it.

Stage 3- Learning Plan

Motivational/Anticipatory Set (introducing topic while engaging the students) (~10 minutes):

Why are probability and statistics important? How is probability used outside the classroom?
- Brainstorm with a partner, 4 examples of when probability is used in real life
- The make a list and discuss as a class

Main Procedures/Strategies (~40 minutes):

- What is Probability:
o Probability – the likelihood that an event will occur
 ie. 40% probability of snow means that under similar conditions in the past it
snowed 40% of the time
o Ways that probability can be written as:
 Fraction – 4/10
 Decimal – 0.4
 Percent – 40%
o Lies between 0 and 1
o Predictions based on probabilities and judgements
o Theoretical Probability – result based on mathematics derived from all given equally
favourable outcomes
 Ex. There is a 5 out of 26 chance that a randomly chosen letter is a vowel
 o Experimental Probability – review the Monty Hall Problem
 Probability which results from a given experiment or past experience
 Ex. Weather forecast says there is a 60% chance of snow
o Subjective judgment – The way you may strongly feel despite given probability
 A hunch or feeling
 Ex. Buying a lottery ticket because you feel lucky
 How do assumptions affect probability?
- Discuss Math Link (p. 429):
o Probabilities used in risk assessment
- Assignment – p. 427-429, #5, 6, 8, 9, 11, 14, 17
o Extra – #7, 10, 14

**Goal of learning - For students to understand how probability is used in society and learn the difference
between theoretical probability, experimental probability, and subjective judgment.

Adaptations/Differentiation:

For struggling students:

- Extended and tiered instruction could be incorporated for those who need extra help.
- Partner with students that will be able to assist in instruction and/or assignments.
- Provide more time to complete tasks.
- Provide same assignments, but change length or difficulty.
- Provide resources for students (EA, scribe, technology, etc.)

For students who need a challenge:

- Extended and tiered instruction could be incorporated for those who need an extra challenge.
- Plan extra activities for students who finish early.
- Challenge students to use critical thinking skills.
- Ask students to share their knowledge with students who may be struggling.

Closing of lesson (~10 minutes):

- Activity – Bottle Flipping Prediction game

o http://www.createdreamexplore.com/2017/02/tired-of-same-ol-graphing-questions.html
o Pick two students to start with to compete in the bottle flipping challenge. Before they
start, hand out ballots for each student to vote for who they thought would win and how
many tries they thought it would take. Have them write their names on their ballots to
use those ballots for other data management activities like figuring out the mode and
median.
o Discuss the probability of getting a bottle flip.
o I collected all the ballots but don't announce who most people voted for yet. Started the
challenge. The rest of the students gather around to watch. Keep track of how many flips
they do until one of them wins. This is trial one.
o Before moving on to trial 2, go through the ballots and share who most people thought
would win. Ask them if they would change their prediction based on our new data (the
new winner). Save the ballots to use for future math lessons (calculating mode and
median).
 o Record their data on the board (not in a graph at this point). Talk about the data and ask
them what the best way to display this data would be.
o Discuss the scale for the graph and what numbers they think would be best to use.
- This will lead into the next lesson

M. Wilkinson ’16 *Adapted from Understanding by Design (McTighe and Wiggins, 1998)