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Running head: A RISING PROBLEM 1

A Rising Problem: To Delve into the Aspects of Rising Sea Levels

Golnar Mostashari

First Colonial High School


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Abstract

This paper focuses on the causes and effects of the global rise in sea level. The author starts by

naming the causes, including thermal expansion and ice loss from glaciers and ice caps, and the

associated effects, including environmental effects as a whole and evaluating the extent to which

certain countries and states will be affected, then goes on to pinpoint the problem to Virginia

Beach. To conclude, the author outlines circumstances where individuals can reduce their effect

on climate change, and also how the government has and should take action against climate

change and rising sea levels.


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A Rising Problem: To Delve into the Legal Aspects of Rising Sea Levels

A pedestrian throws their water bottle on the ground at the park, instead of in the

recycling bin. In the smallest nook of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, water is slowly seeping into the

ice. Thousands of taxis in major metropolitan areas start their days and their engines to commute

citizens to work. That nook becomes more like a splinter, allowing more warm water to reach

the middle of the ice. A wildfire erupts, burning thousands of trees and releasing carbon dioxide

into the atmosphere. The splinter becomes a crack that causes a portion of the ice sheet to break

off. While it is hard to worry about a mere ice sheet breaking while there is the hustle and bustle

of human life and activity, that same human activity is what is causing the melting of the ice

sheets, thermal expansion, and consequently, sea level rise.

Causes

Scientists have found that until 1800, the sea levels were not rising; however, during the

Industrial Revolution, with the building of infrastructure, factories, and automobiles become

more common and widespread, the atmospheric carbon dioxide levels went from being stable, to

exponentially increasing. Now, the carbon dioxide levels are increasing at a rate of .4% per year.

While it seems small, along with other factors, such as deforestation, which is slowly getting rid

of a natural way to clear out carbon dioxide, the world is heralding all the effects of increased

carbon dioxide concentrations. This not only leads to global warming, but in turn is related to

the rise in sea levels (Allen, 2004; Waldman, 2017).

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a branch of the United Nations

Environmental Program, wrote a report to show countries that dire results will ensue if action

against climate change is not taken. This report not only outlined the effects of such climate

change: global warming, sea level rise, and disruption of the planet’s ecosystems, but also
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touched on how this natural phenomenon grew to be less caused by nature, and more caused by

human consumption. The same theory was also published by the U.S. National Research

Council and the U.S. Climate Action Report (Allen, 2004).

Scientists have come to a consensus about the main causes of rising sea levels. Even

though a variety of factors go into such a complex issue, the three main causes of rising sea

levels are thermal expansion, the melting of glaciers and polar ice caps, and ice loss from

Greenland and Antarctica (“ Sea Level Rise,” 2017).

Thermal Expansion

The increased burning of fossil fuels along with natural activities release gases into the

atmosphere. Due to increased human use of fossil fuels, emissions cause the surface temperature

to rise. 80% of the heat that is emitted is absorbed by the ocean. This causes thermal expansion-

the quality of water that heat causes the molecules to expand, and since the water is taking up

more space, the sea levels rise (“Sea Level Rise,” 2017).

This is caused by global warming. Even years after pollutants have been put into the

atmosphere, their presence has a detrimental effect on the environment. Even short-lived

greenhouse gases, like methane, linger in the atmosphere for over a year, but the effects of

methane last a lot longer than it physically exists in the atmosphere. Even years after the

pollutants have left the atmosphere, either by being converted into oxygen by plants, being

absorbed by the ocean, or by other chemical reactions, the effects of the greenhouse gasses that

were once in the atmosphere continue to cause global warming and subsequently, sea level rise

(Clark, 2012). Studies have been conducted to show the effects of stopping human consumption

of carbon dioxide by following a model that, if in 2050, all carbon emissions stopped, the gas

would remain in the atmosphere until the year 2800, and the sea level would continue to increase
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at a higher rate because of the lingering greenhouse gases warming up the atmosphere. The

study showed that even if all human carbon emissions were to stop immediately and entirely,

“their associated atmospheric warming and sea-level rise would continue for more than 1,000

years” (Chu, 2017). Even if emissions are lessened and warming is no more than 2 degrees

celsius, oceans will continue to rise (Folger, 2016). Given all of the accounts and predictions of

projected greenhouse gas emissions for the future, it is expected that the Earth will warm by

three degrees celsius by 2080. Because of this rise in temperature, sea levels will continue to rise

due to thermal expansion, and more water will be melted into the ocean. This creates a domino

effect of sea level rise. Countries gathered to find a solution to this problem, and most ratified the

Kyoto Protocol; however, even if all countries satisfied the requirements of the plan, and if

greenhouse gas emissions stopped by 2020, the sea would still continue to rise 12-32 centimeters

(Mason, n.d.). This is because, even if the emissions ceased, the Earth would still be heating up

by the residual pollutants that are trapped in the atmosphere. The pollutants heat up the

atmosphere, and this increased atmospheric temperature causes the water molecules to expand,

which accounts for a rise in sea levels.

Melting Glaciers, Polar Ice Caps, and Ice Sheets

During summer the glaciers and polar ice caps melt. Usually, the lost ice is replenished

in the cold winter months; however, because of global warming, there is an average of higher

temperatures, which leads to a higher average of melted ice in the summer, and less snow in the

winter. This slowly lessens the amount of ice in the ice caps and adds more water into the

oceans, which causes sea levels to rise (“Sea Level Rise,” 2017).

Much like the melting glaciers and polar ice caps, melted water and seawater are seeping

under the ice sheets. This causes them to move quicker into the ocean. Because they are going
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into the ocean faster, and because the temperature of the ocean is warmer than usual, the ice

sheets melt from below- causing them to weaken faster and splinter/break (“Sea Level Rise,”

2017).

Since 20 years ago, when satellite records of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) began,

the rate of ice loss has tripled, and the ice sheets are thinning at the highest observed speed since

the records began: 500 cubic kilometers per year. The thinning is happening not only because of

global warming, but since the glaciers are rooted underneath the water, and the water

temperature is increasing, the glaciers are melting from underneath (Romm, 2014). This ice loss

from the WAIS causes a rise in sea level because of the amount of ice that is being melted on a

yearly basis. Data from an observatory satellite shows that Antarctica has been losing 14.5

trillion gallons of ice per year since 2008 (Merchant, 2015). While some of this ice is being

refrozen in the winter months, there remains a large part of the ice loss that has contributed to the

rise in sea levels.

Alternate Causes

Even though the research conducted is pointing to human activity causing the rise of sea

levels, there are other theories to account for sea level rise. The Earth naturally does warm up

and eventually cool down, which leads people to believe that the global warming that causes the

rise of sea levels will eventually be balanced out by a fall in global temperatures. This global

activity was caused by short and intense amounts of heat from the sun, which causes glacial and

interglacial cycles of the earth heating up, but eventually cooling down (Elias, n.d.). According

to John Sonntag, Mission Scientist for NASA’s Operation IceBridge, a research project designed

to gather more information about the regrowth of ice in the world’s glaciers, this natural global

heating can account for some of the rise in sea level; however, due to the immense output of
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carbon dioxide and greenhouse gasses as a result of human consumption, it is clear that human

activity has increased the concentration of these greenhouse gases, and thus warmed the Earth

even more than what would have happened naturally (2017).

Effects

Sea level rise is a cycle. Because of the causes of sea level rise, when ice melts, heats up,

and expands, it causes more ice to melt, heat up, and expand. Because of this, the rates of rising

sea levels are continuously increasing. “All nations and all people will be impacted by climate

change [and rising sea levels]” (J. Sonntag, Personal communication, November 2, 2017). It is

difficult for models to predict average sea level rise, so scientists have come up with a range:

they project the sea level to rise anywhere between 3.5 to 34.6 inches this century. Even when

lower predictions of sea level rise are taken into account, the scientists still call for intense

weather patterns: heavy rainfall, drought, and storm surges, all as a result of sea level rise. A

study was conducted to show that a rise of 11.8 inches in the next century will cause the

shoreline in certain areas to erode by 98 feet (Allen, 2004; Howard, 2014). A simple change in

the tide can cause water to be pushed inland onto the streets, not only in less developed

countries, but also in many states in the U.S. (Gillis, 2017). However, the effects of rising sea

levels do not simply have an impact on the coasts, climate change can cause disease to spread

more quickly in third world countries, it can cause wildfires, and even decrease food production

and quality (Howard, 2014). Climate change alters the weather patterns, agriculture and

availability of resources, and because of rising sea levels, certain low-lying countries are at risk.

These affects not only alter the environment, but can cause political and financial hardship for all

countries.
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While densely populated areas are the ones that have to put up measures against the

effects of sea level rise, other areas do not have the same ability to be upheld. Several mountain

ranges and glaciers are at risk. The glaciers in surrounding the second-highest mountain in

Africa, Mount Kenya, have shrunk nearly 90%. Mount Kenya is second to Kilimanjaro, whose

glaciers have melted by 70%. Since 1980, more than half of Spain’s 27 glaciers have completely

melted. While all of this clearly affects humans, animals and plants have had to make their own

adjustments, by being forced to move to cooler areas due to the destruction of their once-cool

habitats (Allen, 2004).

Tuvalu

Small islands of the Pacific suffer the worst of the effects, including coastal erosion,

changes in water salinity, and flooding. And because these states are the most vulnerable to

climate change and sea level rise, due to their small size, the fortitude of these countries is being

tested as sea level rises. Among these islands, Tuvalu, a small island nation in the South Pacific

lying only 15 feet above sea level, has become the “‘poster child’ for [the] encroaching global

disaster” of climate change (Chambers and Chambers 2007, 294 as cited in Connell, 2015).

However, rising seas are only part of the problem. The bigger issue comes with the

effects of the rising sea levels. While the citizens of Tuvalu do not have seawater infecting their

water wells or water on every road, they do experience catastrophic tropical storms, flooding by

even the smallest changes in the tide, and frequent swells. Also, since the 1990s, as the tide

rose, water started to seep from the ground to create puddles, and eventually started eroding the

concrete. “The net effect...is that little by little Tuvalu is beginning to wash away” (Hilia Vavae

as cited in Allen, 2004).


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Another effect of rising sea levels is the change in the shape of the islands. While it may

appear that the island is diminishing because the areas of the island that have the most

infrastructure are eroding, the island is in fact simply changing shape as a result of rising sea

level. In Tuvalu, the most populous part of the island happens to be where the land is eroding

the most, so the citizens are having to be relocated to different parts of the island or to other

countries (Warne, 2015). The changing shape of Tuvalu increases the land area of coral reefs,

but lessens actual island land area. Normally, this would simply force the coral reefs to grow

more and faster, as an act of self sustainment for the organism, but because of the increased

amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere which is somewhat being absorbed by the ocean,

this excess carbon dioxide in water slows the coral from growing. The high temperatures of the

water and atmosphere have similar effects, and can even kill the coral (Allen, 2004). So while

the Tuvalu may seem to get more land based on the coral reef land area, even this will eventually

stop adding to the land area of the island.

Some dissention started to surround Tuvalu, as in 2000, Australia’s National Tidal Centre

(NTC) released a study that showed sea levels in Tuvalu were not rising, but were in fact falling

by several inches in that past decade. This created controversy against the Tuvalu people

because it seemed as though they were making the phenomenon up in order to seek refuge in the

more developed countries. But what the NTC left out of the report was the reason behind the sea

level fall: El Niño. Several years prior to the study was finished, El Niño , which pushes the

warm ocean water eastward, hit Tuvalu twice and pushed the water away from the island, which

accounts for the fall in sea level (Allen, 2004).

Tuvalu, while they are not responsible for most of the carbon emissions that cause

causing the climate change and the rising sea levels, they are reaping all the malefactions. To
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take measures against this, Tuvalu threatened to file a lawsuit against the United States and

Australia for their contribution to carbon dioxide emissions ("Tiny Tuvalu Sues United States

over Rising Sea Level," 2002). Tuvalu took action against the United States and Australia not

only because they are the largest per capita producers of greenhouse gases, but also because they

are the only developed countries that have not yet ratified the Kyoto Protocol, which aimed to

reduce greenhouse gas emissions (Allen, 2004).

Greenland and Antarctica

Nearly 10% of the Earth’s quantity of freshwater is contained by the Greenland ice

sheets. If released, this water has the potential of raising the sea levels by 20 feet (Popescu,

2017). Sea level rise is causing Greenland’s ice sheet to melt faster, which is in turn causing sea

levels to rise. However, recently, the effects of sea level rise have not led to the typical gradual

ice loss. In 2016, a five square mile piece of the Jakobshavn glacier in west Greenland splintered

away from the ice sheet (Romm, 2014).

NASA started program called Oceans Melting Greenland (OMG), which will allow

scientists at NASA to evaluate the extent to which the Greenland ice sheets are melting from

below. For five years, OMG will analyze how the water on the continental shelf of Greenland

changes temperature and the effect of the warmer, salty ocean water on the cold, fresh water that

melted from the glacier. OMG will observe the extent to which the warm oceanic layer grows

each year and the effect of it on the thinning and melting of glaciers (Dinardo, ed., n.d.).

NASA also founded Operation IceBridge, as a method to find more about changes in

polar ice. The team uses special tools to measure the surface of the ice, the layers of ice and

show, and other key points of data that they can then use to calculate the melting and regrowth of

ice on the ice sheets (J. Sonntag, Personal communication, November 2, 2017). Since the
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atmosphere is thinner at the poles, the heat of the sun is more likely to affect the ice sheets

(Ivanescu, n.d.). Therefore, it is crucial to find more about the polar ice. From Operation

IceBridge, scientists have gathered that the glaciers are thinning faster than they have before (J.

A. MacGregor, Personal communication, November 3, 2017)

United States

Florida. Recently, in the Southeast Coastal United States, especially Florida, sea level

rise have been observed to be accelerating. Researchers found that the sea level in the Southeast

Coastline rose six times faster than the average global rate from 2011 to 2015, due to El Niño

and the North Atlantic Oscillation, a change in the atmospheric pressure above the ocean. These

two oceanic mechanisms, happening at closely related time intervals, created an epicenter for sea

level rise in Florida (Gillis, 2017). The causes of this sudden increase in sea level rise rates was

due to adverse natural causes, but also due to human consumption. However, while the effects

of the natural phenomena are only short term, they have an enormous impact on sea level rise in

the long term (Waldman, 2017).

To combat sea level rise effects in Florida, Governor Rick Scott signed Senate Bill 1094

into action in 2015. Even though the law does not directly work to minimize the effects of the

Florida population on sea level rise, it does focus on flooding laws. The new law modifies

previously enforced Florida Statute Section 163.3178(2)(f), which was deemed vague and

unenforceable. By changing the wording of the law, it thereby becomes more enforceable. The

law requires coastal management elements of extensive plans to include, “redevelopment

component[s] that outline the principles that must be used to eliminate inappropriate and unsafe

development in the coastal areas when opportunities arise” (Committee Substitute for Committee

Substitute for Committee Substitute for Senate Bill No. 1094, May 21, 2015). The new law
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requires redevelopment practices to reduce the risk of flooding and reduce losses due to flooding

in the coastal areas of Florida. This law, though it may not seem, is combatting the effects of

rising sea levels. The rising sea levels cause flooding to be more extreme, by making the effects

of high-tide, storm surge, flash floods, and stormwater runoff stronger than they would have

been. The law recognizes sea level rise as a flood risk that must be addressed in redevelopment

and “highlights the realization that sea-level rise represents an important challenge to consider in

the long-term resilience of Florida communities” ("New Law Includes Sea-level Rise in Coastal

Planning," 2017).

California. Being on the West Coast, California obviously experiences different

weather situations than that on the East Coast. However, the implications of the rising seas have

similar effects on the West Coast as they do the East. A big impact of the rising sea levels that is

affecting California, especially Southern California, is the more frequent flooding that happens

as a result. While research has given information on how cities and states can handle the

repercussions of storm surge, tidal flooding, and others on coastal erosion, there is not much that

governments can do to combat the waves (Griggs et al., 2017). Waves play a big role in the

intensity of the effects of rising sea levels, especially storm surge and El Niño, which are both

events that are caused and strengthened by waves. Because of the more intense surges and the

bigger waves of El Niño, the coast of Los Angeles is eroding at a faster rate. In order to stop the

erosion of the coast, the state government started to create buffers between the land and water by

dredging sand and bringing it closer to the shore. While this is only a temporary solution, the

government finds that it is the best way to quickly save the most vulnerable areas (Khan, 2017).

The local sea level rise in all parts of California seem to be rising at a steady rate. While

the average per year is a mere couple millimeters, the government is aware that the sea level rise
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is difficult to predict, so they are taking action to build more stable infrastructure, more sand

dredging on the coast, and others to give an upper hand against the potential outcomes (Griggs et

al., 2017).

Another factor of sea level rise that affects California specifically, is the gravitational pull

on the water. Because of the location relative to one another, California is greatly impacted by

even the smallest ice loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Studies have shown that “for every foot

of global sea-level rise caused by the loss of ice on West Antarctica, sea-level will rise

approximately 1.25 feet along the California coast” because of the Earth’s rotation and the effect

of gravity on the movement of water (Mulkern, 2017).

Coastal California counties sued more than 30 oil and coal companies for compensation

for property damage because of climate change. These cities include Imperial Beach, Marin, and

San Mateo. They are going up against some of the largest companies including Chevron,

ExxonMobil, and more. The plaintiffs argue that greenhouse gas emissions- caused by the

companies- are contributing to global warming and sea level rise, which affects their coastal

municipalities. Because of this, the cities have to deal with beach erosion, property loss, and

they have to remake infrastructure. The plaintiffs are arguing that this is a public nuisance. In

the past, companies do not ride well with these kinds of lawsuits because they do not see a

connection between the company, global warming, and the effects on people or cities- especially

since they are not the ones emitting the most greenhouse gases, it is the people who buy the gas

and drive cars (Smith, 2017).

Virginia Beach. As the effects of sea level rise started to impact the residents of

Virginia Beach more and more, citizens started to turn to the leaders municipality through a

series of public forums about how the government can address the effects of sea level rise on
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their constituents. This data keeps with the research found by many other scientists: that the rate

of sea level rise is continuously increasing. The rate of sea level rise in Virginia Beach has

proven follow the same trend. In the past 50 years, Virginia Beach has seen a rise in sea levels

of nearly one foot (Karl, Melillo, & Peterson, eds., 2009; Sabella, 2017). As a result of this,

community interest in protecting the city from the effects of rising sea levels, some of which

have already been brought up in the meeting, like flooding for instance, the leaders of the

municipality have been developing the Comprehensive Sea Level Rise and Recurrent Flooding

Analysis and Planning Study (Fisher & Bush, 2017). The issues that the plan focuses on are

flooding and the effects of rising sea levels in years to come. In the City of Virginia Beach, it

has been found that more than 50% of storm surges happen when the water levels are high. And

because of rising sea levels, the water levels are already high to begin with, so when there is a

storm with a substantial amount of rain, storm surges are more likely to happen. The areas

currently at a high risk of flooding, will see an 150% increase in flooding in the next 30-40 years.

In all the areas of Virginia beach, from places with very frequent flooding, to the places with

infrequent flooding, the annualized loss is estimated to be $22.6 million per year. The rise in sea

level only makes the estimated loss increase. A rise of three feet of water can be detrimental to

the local economy. However, Virginia Beach has started taking adaptive measures to minimize

the short and long term risk of flooding and loss, as detailed in the plan. This plan not only

addresses current problems surrounding flooding, but is also formulating a plan to reduce the

frequency and the effects of recurrent flooding in the future (VBGov, 2017).
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Current and Future Solutions

Societal Solutions

As a society, there are many actions an individual can take to reduce their effect on

climate change, and thus rising sea levels. These methods include being energy efficient,

recycling, and overall being more conscious of each individual effect on climate change (David

Suzuki Foundation, 2017). However, many do not know how much a single individual can

impact the environment. Recycling has the biggest impact. On a small scale, by recycling one

glass bottle, enough energy is saved to power a lightbulb for four hours and by recycling one tin

can, enough energy is saved to power a television for six hours. However, on a much larger

scale, recycling can save thousands of gallons of water, oil, and even electricity (Sommer, 2008).

Legal Solutions

The United States has already been involved with the Montreal Protocol on Substances

that Deplete the Ozone Layer. This is an international treaty ratified by 197 countries, with the

mission to progressively eliminate the overproduction and increased consumption of substances

dangerous to the ozone layer ("International Actions - The Montreal Protocol on Substances That

Deplete the Ozone Layer," 2017). Researchers at MIT have found that the Montreal Protocol has

not only helped in reducing the emissions of depleting substances, but also has helped prevent a

rise in sea levels. If it were not ratified back in 1987, these researchers have found that by 2050,

the sea levels would have been six inches higher than what they are currently projected to be.

(Chu, 2017).

Even though the United States is involved with the Montreal Protocol to curb the effects

of climate change and reduce rising sea levels, the current administration has taken efforts to
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curtail the challenge against rising sea levels. This started with the reduced budget of the

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) (White House, n.d.).

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been releasing frequent

reports on what is known about climate change and rising sea levels since 1988. The most recent

report, from 2014, shows that the panel is urging governments to increase their efforts in

planning against the impacts of climate change (Howard, 2014). In several counties, a carbon

tax has already been implemented to urge companies to reduce their carbon consumption. The

United States does not yet have a federally enforced carbon tax, yet provinces, like British

Columbia, have already reaped the benefits of a carbon tax (Porter, 2016).

Conclusion

While the effects of climate change and sea level rise seem irreversible, there is still so

much to be done to combat future effects. The Earth and the environment do not have to face

dire consequences of overconsumption if action is taken immediately. Although the residual

heat of the atmosphere will continue to cause the global sea level to rise, this cannot stop the

government and the people from taking action against climate change.
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