AEA HS17 Optimization&LCA

Lecture:
Advanced Environmental Assessments

LCA & Optimization
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD Carl Vadenbo (vadenbo@ifu.baug.ethz.ch) | 26.11.2017 | 1

Agenda
 Introduction to optimization and operations research

 The general linear programming (LP) model
 The Simplex algorithm
 Why LCA ↔ operations research?
 Multi-objective optimization and Pareto-efficiency
 Case study: Environmental multi-objective optimization of
biomass use for energy in Denmark
Advanced Environmental Assessments 2017

www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD | 26.11.2017 | 2
LCA & Optimization
What is optimization?
“an act, process, or methodology of making something

(as a design, system, or decision) as fully perfect, functional,
or effective as possible;
specifically: the mathematical procedures (as finding the
maximum of a function) involved in this”
www.MerriamWebster.com/dictionary/optimization
[Assessed on 2014-11-06]

LCA & Optimization
Operations Research (OR)
 Also referred to as decision science, management

science, or operational research
 “the application of scientific and especially mathematical
methods to the study and analysis of problems involving
complex systems”
 Employing techniques from other mathematical sciences
to arrive at optimal or near-optimal solutions to complex
decision-making problems. Techniques include:
 mathematical modeling
 statistical analysis
 mathematical optimization
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/operations%20research
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD
[Assessed on 2014-11-06] Advanced Environmental Assessments 2017
| 26.11.2017 | 4
LCA & Optimization
Origin of Operations Research
George B. Dantzig Leonid Kantorovich
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Convoy_en_route_to_Capetown.jpg
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Convoy_routes_1941.jpg
http://www.uh.edu/engines/epi2327.htm
http://www.math.nsc.ru/LBRT/g2/english/ssk/lvk_phenomenon_e.html
Example – a cannery problem
George B. Dantzig
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD (1963) Linear Programming and Extensions. Princeton | 26.11.2017 | 6
University Press, Princeton, NJ.
The general linear programming (LP) model
Objective function min 𝑧 = 𝑐 𝑇 𝑥 Variable (to be determined)

or ‘max’!
Known coefficients
Subject to (constraints) 𝐴𝑥 ≤ 𝑏
𝑥≥0

LCA & Optimization
Illustration of LP formulation:
the cannery problem
Objective function
min 𝑧 = 𝑐 𝑇 𝑥
Subject to (constraints)
 availability at canneries 𝐴1𝑥 ≤ 𝑏
 demand at warehouses 𝐴 2𝑥 = 𝑑
 non-negativity of flows 𝑥≥0
cost per case, c Chicago Dallas Kansas City New York San Francisco availability, b
Portland $1.00 $1.80 $1.50 $0.90 $2.70 250
San Diego $1.80 $1.60 $1.40 $2.50 $0.60 750
Seattle $1.70 $2.00 $1.80 $2.50 $0.90 500
demand, d 300 300 300 300 300

LCA & Optimization
Graphical solution of LPs
x2
max Z
x1

LCA & Optimization
Solving LPs: the Simplex algorithm
 First proposed by Dantzig in 1947
 If a LP has an optimal solution, then it must have an
optimal solution that is also an extreme point of the
feasible region
 Algorithm (conceptual description):
1. Identify a basic feasible solution
 If no such solution exist, then LP infeasible
2. If objective value can be further improved,
then move along the edge that represents
the largest (current) improvement
 If not, then STOP, the current solution is optimal
 If possible, then check if problem is unbounded (𝑧 → ±∞),
if so then STOP, else proceed to Step 3
3. Derive new basic feasible solution and return to Step 2
LCA & Optimization
Back to the cannery problem –
the optimal solution
 Optimal solution:
warehouse
Kansas City
Francisco
New York
Chicago
Dallas
San
[Nr of cases] Supply
Portland 0 0 0 250 0 250
cannery
SanDiego 0 300 300 0 150 750

Seattle 300 0 0 50 150 500
Demand 300 300 300 300 300
 Objective value: $1985.00

LCA & Optimization
Why LCA ↔ OR?
 Alternative description: OR deals with “methods and

models for supporting decisions arising in design,
planning, coordination and/or control of (processes in)
complex (socio-technical) systems”
 Sounds familiar…?
 Models of OR commonly focused on identifying optimal use of
(constrained) resources, maximizing profit/minimizing cost
 LCA is (generally) “based on linear homogenous […]
models of human economic activity and of their effect on
the environment” (Azapagic & Clift 1998)

LCA & Optimization
Azapagic & Clift. (1998) Int. J. LCA 3(6):305-316.
Optimization with environmental objectives
 First applied to process design in chemical
industry in the 1990s, e.g. Methodology for
Environmental Impact Minimization (MEIM)
by Stefanis et al. (1995)
 Dissertation of Adisa Azapagic (1996) and
publications (1998-2001)
 LP to solve allocation problem of multi-output
processes/systems
 LCA → multi-objective LP → Decision based on
Pareto-efficient surface
 Current applications
 Process design and scheduling
 Planning of supply chain networks
 Maximizing benefits of by-product exchanges, i.e.
industrial symbiosis
 Dealing with conflicting environmental objectives
Stefanis et al. (1995) Computers & Chemical Engineering 19:S39–S44

www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD Azapagic, A. (1996). Environmental System Analysis : The Application of Linear | 26.11.2017 | 13
Programming to Life Cycle Assessment. PhD Dissertation, University of Surrey, UK.
Some LCA fundamentals –
the matrix-based LCI model
Where A is the technology matrix (mxn),

As  f s is the scaling vector (nx1),
and f is the final demand vector (mx1)
Three cases:
Processes, n • Dimensions of m>n: More products than processes
Products, m
 a11 a1n  → system overdetermined






• m=n: If each process has a unit product output,
 am1 a  then technology matrix A is square → As=f
 mn 
  has a unique solution if A is invertible
• m<n: System underdetermined and can be optimized!

LCA & Optimization
Heijungs & Suh (2002), Tan et al. (2008)
Linear programming extension of matrix-based
LCA model (LP-LCA)
Key difference!
 For matrix inversion (standard LCA): technology matrix A must be
square and invertible → each process must have a unique product or
service as output
 In LP-LCA: technology matrix A rectangular (and underdetermined)
→ multiple processes ‘compete’ to provide the same function or
product (more columns than rows in A)Objective function
s  A1 f min ℎ = 𝑔𝑄
g  Bs Subject to (constraints)
h  gQ 𝐴𝑠 = 𝑓
𝐵𝑠 = 𝑔
𝑠≥0
LCA & Optimization
The curse of multiple objectives
Issues
 Which performance indicators (objectives) are relevant?
 Computational effort
 How to visualize optimal solutions more than 3D?
 How to prioritize between conflicting objectives?
Possible solutions
 Aggregation of objectives (e.g. single metric through weighting)
 Parameterization or ε-constraint method (Haimes et al. 1971)
→ Pareto-optimal set of solutions
 Fuzzy LP formulation (Tan et al. 2008)
 Reduce complexity by omitting ‘redundant’ objectives based on
correlation (Guillén-Gosálbez 2011)
LCA & Optimization
Pareto-efficiency/-optimality
Buy a car…
f1(yi) = Cost
f2(yi) = -Safety
Parameters
ci = cost of car i
si = safety level of car i
Variables
yi = binary variable (1 if car i is selected, 0 otherwise)

LCA & Optimization
Slides adapted from Gonzalo Guillén-Gosálbez
Find a safer car for the same price
Find a cheaper car with the same safety

FEASIBLE SOLUTIONS
Cost
(suboptimal: inefficient)
UNFEASIBLE SOLUTIONS
(impossible: not available in the market)
PARETO FRONTIER Safety

(optimal: efficient solutions)

LCA & Optimization
Slides adapted from Gonzalo Guillén-Gosálbez
FEASIBLE SOLUTIONS
(suboptimal)
Reduce environmental impact

X
Cost
Reduce cost
UNFEASIBLE SOLUTIONS
(impossible) PARETO FRONTIER
(optimal)
Functional unit: key constraint!
Environmental impact
Guillén-Gosálbez et al. 2008. Ind. & Eng. Chem. Research 47 (3)
LCA & Optimization
The fuzzy LP extension of matrix-based LCA
Objective function Degree of mutual satisfaction
max 𝜆 i.e. indicator of ‘best’
compromise solution
System variables
Subject to (constraints)
𝐴𝑠 = 𝑓 Upper/lower bound for
𝐵𝑠 = 𝑔 environmental target levels
𝑄𝑔 ≤ ℎ𝑈 − 𝜆(ℎ𝑈 − ℎ𝐿 )
0≤𝜆≤1
Where 𝐴: technology matrix; 𝐵: intervention matrix (env.
flows); 𝑄: characterization matrix of LCIA model;
𝑓: functional unit vector; 𝑠: scaling vector; 𝑔: inventory
flows; ℎ: impact vector in LCIA model
LCA & Optimization
Tan et al. (2008) J. Cleaner Prod. 16 (13): 1358–1367.
Fuzzy LP formulation
acceptable partially acceptable unacceptable

1

1 λ

1 λ 0
hLower hUpper impact i
λ 0
hLower hUpper impact 2
0
hLower hUpper impact 1
Objective of fuzzy LP: Find maximum λ obtainable over all objectives simultaneously.
LCA & Optimization
Tan et al. (2008) J. Cleaner Prod. 16 (13) 1358–1367
Image copyright © under CC 3.0 from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:EU-Denmark.svg
Case study: Environmental multi-objective
optimization of biomass use for energy in
Denmark
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD | 26.11.2017 |
Goal & scope of study
 Aim: To determine (national) environmentally-optimal

strategies for utilization of biomass resources for energy
 Goal: To overcome short-comings of scenario-based LCA
 Scope: ‘Full’ set of biomass substrates, energy
technologies, and final demand categories (complete
energy system perspective)
 Approach: (i) consequential LCA of biomass supply and
bioenergy conversion, (ii) biochemical process models,
and (iii) mathematical optimization with multiple objectives

LCA & Optimization
Method
Consequential LCA of biomass Formulation of mathematical multi-

supply and conversion objective optimization problem
(Tonini et al. 2015):  Linear programming (LP)
 Direct and indirect effects extension of matrix-based LCA
related to biomass supply/use  Multi-objective optimization
→ e.g. direct/direct land use based on fuzzy intervals (based
changes (LUC) on Tan et al. 2008)
 By-products utilized outside  Uncertainty analysis with Monte
energy system considered Carlo simulations to investigate
Detailed parameterized robustness of solutions
biochemical process models
(Tonini et al. 2014; 2015)
ecoinvent v3.1 (consequential)
LCA & Optimization
Problem superstructure Competing/compensatory
energy technologies
fossil + other renewables
Biomass supply
Final energy
Secondary/ Tertiary
Primary demand
intermediate conversions
11 sub-
conversions final service
(e.g. anaerobic
conversions provision, (e.g.
categories
(e.g. biogas • electricity
digestion) in CHP or for
upgrading) • heat
transport)
• transport

LCA & Optimization
Case study scope
Image copyright © under CC 3.0 from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:EU-Denmark.svg

 Geographical scope: Denmark
 Departing from situation in 2013 (as baseline)
 Future energy scenarios
 2025 ‘frozen policy’ demand scenario
 Assuming renewable energy targets (as share of total)
for electricity, heat & road/rail transport
 Six environmental objectives
 4x ILCD-recommended midpoints
(Global warming, marine eutroph., acidification, particulate matter
 Water footprint (WF), as water scarcity midpoint (Pfister et al. 2009)
 Cumulative energy demand (CED), non-renewable fossil resources
LCA & Optimization
Single-objective optimal solution
minimizing global warming (GW)
Carl Vadenbo
www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD Vadenbo et al. (2017) Energy System Analysis | 26.11.2017 | 27
October 2016
Multi-objective optimal solution

LCA & Optimization
Vadenbo et al. (2017)
Discussion – case study results
 Key case study conclusion: Context matters!
 Generally high degree of utilization for domestic biomass resources
 Dedicated energy crops in 3/6 single-objective solutions
 Bioenergy import: wood pellets/chips in 4/6, liquid biofuels in 4/6
 (Too) high environmental ‘cost’ of substituting animal feed
 Direct combustion and anaerobic digestion dominate 1’
 Bioenergy for heat and electricity prioritized over use as
transport fuels
 Environmental ‘win-win’ feasible
 Optimal solution robust for type of biomass utilized;
less in terms of optimal conversion pathways
LCA & Optimization
Wrap-up – LCA combined with optimization
 Opportunities compared to scenario-based LCA

 Systematic identification of optimal solution
 Optimization problem can encompass very large number of
feasible system configurations
 Optimization problem only considers feasible solutions
 Systematic identification of (Pareto-)efficient trade-offs between
conflicting objectives
 Challenges compared to ‘scenario-based’ LCA
 Formulation of relevant constraints (+data requirements)
 Computational effort
 Environmental optimization based on LCA ≠ consequential LCA!

LCA & Optimization
References – case study
 Energistyrelsen, ENS. (2014). Basisfremskrivninger. [online] http://www.ens.dk/info/tal-

kort/fremskrivninger-analyser-modeller/fremskrivninger. Assessed 2015-09-18.
 Tan, R. R., Culaba, A. B., & Aviso, K. B. (2008). A fuzzy linear programming extension of the
general matrix-based life cycle model. Journal of Cleaner Production, 16(13), 1358–1367.
doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2007.06.020
 Tonini, D., Dorini, G., & Astrup, T. F. (2014). Bioenergy, material, and nutrients recovery from
household waste: Advanced material, substance, energy, and cost flow analysis of a waste
refinery process. Applied Energy, 121, 64–78. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.01.058
 Tonini, D., Hamelin, L., & Astrup, T. F. (2015). Environmental implications of the use of agro-
industrial residues for biorefineries: application of a deterministic model for indirect land-use
changes. GCB Bioenergy. doi:10.1111/gcbb.12290
 Vadenbo, C., Hellweg, S., & Guillén-Gosálbez, G. (2014). Multi-objective optimization of waste
and resource management in industrial networks – Part I: Model description. Resources,
Conservation and Recycling, 89, 52–63. 10.1016/j.resconrec.2014.05.010
 Vadenbo, C., D. Tonini, T. Astrup (2017) Environmental Multiobjective Optimization of the Use
of Biomass Resources for Energy. Environmental Science & Technology, 51(6), 3575–3583.
10.1021/acs.est.6b06480
LCA & Optimization
Links
 ‘Introduction to Mathematical Optimization’ by IFOR (fall semester)
https://www.math.ethz.ch/ifor/education/courses/fall-
2017/introduction-to-mathematical-optimization.html
 Introduction to LP and its implementation in Matlab:
http://www.mathworks.ch/videos/mathematical-modeling-with-
optimization-part-1-68973.html
 Linear Programming and Extensions by George B. Dantzig:
http://www.rand.org/pubs/reports/R366.html
 An introduction to linear programming by Tom Ferguson (UCLA):
http://www.math.ucla.edu/~tom/LP.pdf

LCA & Optimization

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Lecture:

Advanced Environmental Assessments

www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD Carl Vadenbo (vadenbo@ifu.baug.ethz.ch) | 26.11.2017 | 1

 Introduction to optimization and operations research

Advanced Environmental Assessments 2017

“an act, process, or methodology of making something

Advanced Environmental Assessments 2017

 Also referred to as decision science, management

George B. Dantzig Leonid Kantorovich

Objective function min 𝑧 = 𝑐 𝑇 𝑥 Variable (to be determined)

Advanced Environmental Assessments 2017

Advanced Environmental Assessments 2017

Advanced Environmental Assessments 2017

SanDiego 0 300 300 0 150 750

 Objective value: $1985.00

Advanced Environmental Assessments 2017

 Alternative description: OR deals with “methods and

Advanced Environmental Assessments 2017

Stefanis et al. (1995) Computers & Chemical Engineering 19:S39–S44

Where A is the technology matrix (mxn),

 a11 a1n  → system overdetermined

Advanced Environmental Assessments 2017

Advanced Environmental Assessments 2017

Find a cheaper car with the same safety

PARETO FRONTIER Safety

Advanced Environmental Assessments 2017

Reduce environmental impact

Functional unit: key constraint!

acceptable partially acceptable unacceptable

acceptable partially acceptable unacceptable

acceptable partially acceptable unacceptable

 Aim: To determine (national) environmentally-optimal

Advanced Environmental Assessments 2017

Consequential LCA of biomass Formulation of mathematical multi-

Advanced Environmental Assessments 2017

Image copyright © under CC 3.0 from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:EU-Denmark.svg

Advanced Environmental Assessments 2016

 Opportunities compared to scenario-based LCA

Advanced Environmental Assessments 2017

 Energistyrelsen, ENS. (2014). Basisfremskrivninger. [online] http://www.ens.dk/info/tal-

Advanced Environmental Assessments 2017

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AEA HS17 Optimization&LCA

AEA HS17 Optimization&LCA