Professional Documents
Culture Documents
● The carbonate cycle pump is made of three parts:
○ The biological pump
■ This is the organic sequestration of CO2 into the ocean by phytoplankton
■ They absorb sunlight and through photosynthesis, convert CO2 into O2
■ Carbon is then passed up the food chain by consumer fish and zooplankton which
in turn releases CO2 back into the water and atmosphere
■ Phytoplankton sequester over 2 billion metric tonnes of CO2 annually to the deep
ocean
○ The carbonate pump
■ This relies on inorganic carbon sedimentation
■ Maine organisms (such as molluscs) use calcium carbonate to make hard outer
shells and inner skeletons
■ When organisms die and sink, their shells dissolve before reaching the sea flood
sediments which are transported by deep ocean currents
■ Shells that do not dissolve build up slowly on the seafloor, and through
diagenesis, form limestone sediments
○ The physical pump
■ The phytoplankton require nutrients
which the thermohaline circulation
provides
■ The thermohaline circulation refers
to the global system of surface and
deep water ocean currents driven
by temperature and salinity
differences between areas of
oceans
■ The colder the air the more potential for CO2 to be absorbed (there is also more
phytoplankton here), Warm tropical waters tend to release CO2 into the
atmosphere. As major ocean currents such as the North Atlantic Drift moves
water from the tropics to the poles, the water cools and can absorb more
atmosphere CO2.
■ Warm ocean waters are depleted of nutrients and CO2 but are enriched again as
they travel through the conveyor belt.
● The balance of the total carbon uptake (92 PgC) and carbon loss (90 PgC) from the ocean is
dependent on the biological, carbonate and physical pumps
Biological/Physical Carbon Cycle
● Fast component of the carbon cycle
● Rapid reserve turnovers
● Main processes include photosynthesis, respiration
and decomposition
● Huge interaction between atmosphere, ocean, ocean
sediments and on land in vegetation, soil and
freshwater
● Carbon enters the the atmosphere as CO2 through
respiration and combustion
● Vegetation photosynthesis this CO2 to produce O2 ,
storing the carbon as carbohydrates
● Animals feel on plant passing carbon compounds
along the chain
● The most productive biomes are tropical forests,
savannah and grassland.
○ Rainforests are one of the largest organic
stores of carbon on Earth
○ The Amazon rainforest sequests 17% of all
terriotitral carbon.
● Carbon fluxes vary:
○ Durinally - during the day as the fluxes are
positive and at the night when the flux is
negative
○ Seasonally - in the Northern Hemisphere winter, when few land plants are growing and
many are decaying, atmospheric CO2 concentrations rise
● When the plants and animals die they decompose. As the bacteria decompose the dead
organism, they return CO2 into the atmosphere
● Decomposition is faster in tropical climates with high rainfall, temperatures and oxygen levels.
● The capacity of soil to store organic carbon is determined by:
○ Climate - dictates plant growth and microbial activity. (high rainfall, high temperature
levels)
■ Arid soils store only 30 tonnes per hectare compared 800 tonnes per hectare in
cold regions
○ Soil type - Clay rich soils have a higher carbon content than sandy soils
○ Management and use of soils - Carbon can be lost through cultivation and disturbance
● In some circumstances, the process of decomposition is fossilisation.
Why is the carbon cycle important?
● Regulates global temperature and climate by controlling the CO2 levels in the atmosphere
○ This affects the hydrological cycle as precipitation patterns rates can be altered
● Ecosystem and agriculture depend on the carbon cycle
How has the carbon cycle been altered?
● Depleted stores of carbon
● Sped up the fluxes
● Not created any new store of Carbon
The natural greenhouse effect
● The concentration of greenhouse gases such
as methane and carbon dioxide influence the natural
greenhouse effect
● The sun’s waves are mostly absorbed (69%)
heating up the Earth
● Some of the radiation is reflected by the
atmosphere and Earth’s Surface
● Whilst some of the infrared radiation passes
through the atmosphere some is absorbed and
reemitted by greenhouse gases. This leads to the
warming of the Earth’s surface
●
Atmosphere plants and soils
● Photosynthesising plants play a key role in helping to keep CO2 levels constant, helping to
regulate Earth’s average temperature
● Climat and nutrients play a key role in the size of carbon sink. Highest productivity occurs:
○ On land: in areas that are wet and warm
■ Deserts have little biomass above ground
■ Forests store the largest amount of carbon collectively. The Amazon is called the
lungs of the Earth
■ Tundra has the highest density of carbon storage in its permafrost
○ In the oceans, in shallower water, allowing higher photosynthesis in places receiving high
nutrient inputs
Soil health
● Soil health depends on the amount of organic
carbon stores in the soil
● This depends on inputs (plants and animal
residues( and outputs (decomposition, erosion)
● Carbon gives soil its water-retention capacity, its
structure and its fertility
● Organic carbon is concentrated in the surface soil
layer and is easily eroded so soil erosion is a major
threat to carbon storage and soil health
Fossil Fuel combustion
● Fossil fuel consumptions has increased since the industrial revolution as it has been the primary
energy source driving modern civilisation
● Anthropogenic Greenhouse gas emissions have increased. Before the Industrial REvolution
concentration in the atmosphere was 180 ppm. In 2016, the concentration passed 400 ppm
● Implications for the c limate
○ On average the Earth will become warmer, causing more evaporation and precipitation
○ More extreme, intense frequent events such as floods, droughts.
○ Dry regions will become dries whilst wet regions will become wetter.
○ Storm surges may increase
○ Melting ice caps decreases the salinity, and so the thermohaline circulation may weaken,
altering the transfer of heat meaning harsher winters for the UK.
○ Tropical cyclones will become more intense as well as stronger mid latitude westerly
winds
○ Droughts and floods drived by ENSO cycles may become more intense and increase in
frequency because of a warming atmosphere and ocean surface
● Implications for ecosystems
○ Rising sea levels
○ Rates of extinction may increase to 15 and 50% of all species, especially in high risk polar
regions such as polar bears and emperor penguins
○ Species may be forced to migrate poleward or into deeper ocean waters.
○ 80% of ecosystems could be bleached due to the acidification of seawater, which will
threatened corals and the shells of creators will get smaller and thinner.
○ Plants species will face pests and diseases as there is less cold weather to kill them
● Implications for the hydrological cycle
○ Increased evaporation rates, trigger more moisture circulating throughout the cycle,
increasing precipitation events
○ Increased surface permafrost temperatures
○ Rivers may dry up elsewhere if precipitation is reduced or less effective due to higher
evaporation rates
○ Likely that flash flooding will become more likely due to more intense precipitation
○ Reduced sea ice, icecap and glacier storage
Arctic amplification
● The arctic region is warming at twice the rate as the global average
● Permafrost stores over 155.6 GtC
● Melting will release methane and carbon dioxide, increasing the concentration of greenhouse
gases, increases global temperatures, leading to more melting - forming a positive feedback loop
● As the ice melts, there is a decreased albedo, meaning more or the sun's rays are absorbed,
leading to more warming, more melting etc.
● Shrubs and boreal trees have started to establish themselves where they previously couldn’t
Energy players have different roles in securing pathways and energy supplies
Energy pathway refers to the flow of energy from producer to consumer. This can be primary energy
(gas/oil pipelines) or secondary energy (e.g. electricity through power lines)
● TNCs
○ State Owned - e.g. Gazprom
○ Russia in the past have used its natural gas reserves as a political weapon. Russia
supply 25% of the EU’s gas - 80% of which goes through pipelines in Ukraine, Russia cut
off supplies through Ukraine in 2006 after accusing it of keeping the gas to itself. 18 EU
countries experienced shortages of gas and exposed the vulnerability to both supply
chain and political pressure on their economies
○ Privately owned TNCs - e.g. BP
○ Involved in exploring, extraction, transportation and refining
○ They own supply lines and invest in destruction and processing of raw materials
● OPEC - Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
○ 14 member countries who own ⅔ of the world’s oil reserves
○ Controls the oil entering and leaving a market as well as global prices
○ Produce a steady income for producers
○ HAve been accused of decreasing production to drive up oil and gas prices
○ Power has arguably been diminishing as the US increased oil production through
fracking, causing a collapse in global oil prices
● Consumers
○ Arguably most influential are transport, industry and domestic users as they create the
demand
○ However quite passive players when it comes to fixing energy prices. Although they
purchase choices based on price - leading to petrol prices being price checked between
supermarkets
○ Pressure groups can protest against fracking, nuclear power plants which can affect
energy security
● Governments
○ Control national energy security whilst also supporting the country’s economic growth
■ Providing subsidies to encourage uptake of renewable source such as solar
panels
■ Signing Up to Climate Change Laws e.g. Paris 2015
■ Danish government made agreements with Norway Sweden and Germany to
secure energy through pathways from different countries. The Danish
government aim for independence from oil, coal and gas by 2050.
○ Influence the sourcing of energy
○ Regulating the role of private companies and setting environmental priorities
○ Political tensions and disagreements may lead to pathways being blocked at choke
points - e.g. Iraq War, Somali Pirates
■ Uncertainty over maritime security can lead to oil prices increase
● Oil prices increased in March 2015 after Saudi Arabia began its military
operations against Yemen, 3.8 million barrels of oil pass through the Bab
el Mandeb chokepoint
■ Embargoes and sanctions can also disrupt production
● The US placed embargoes on Iran for its involvement with nuclear
weapons.
● 30% of world’s oil is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz
■ Piracy and terrorist groups can undermine energy security by disrupting
pathways.
● The Strait of Malacca was hit by piracy attacks in December 2015. This
chokepoint is curual as it's the second largest choke point for oil and gas
transit by tanker
■ Governments may nationalise oil supplies and become more protectionist
● Chavez nationalized oil suppliers in Venezuela.
● The state owned company PDVSA gave the government more access to
its profits but chronic underinvestment llet to a 15 year slide in crude oil
output
● Chavez even threatened to stop selling its crude oil to the USA
RUSSIA CASE STUDY
Russia is the world’s second largest producer of natural gas
Most of it is exported to Europe via a network of pipelines through Ukraine
● Russia used its gas monopoly as a geopolitical weapon
● Russia cut of supplies to Ukraine meaning
● 18 EU countries experienced shortages of gas
● exposed the vulnerability to both supply chain and political pressure on their economies
● In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine.
● Heavy reliance on any imported energy carries the potential of being involved in various forms
of political blamail.
● Nonetheless, the UK has agreed to double its imports of Russian tgas by 2021 to offset
declining output from the UK’s North SEa gas fields
Unconventional Fossil Fuels costs and benefits, implications for carbon cycle and consequences for the
resilience of fragile environments
● Have the potential to meet future energy needs
● Widespread distribution can increase energy security of countries by reducing dependence on
imports
● However, these are still all fossil fuels so expliation will continue to disrupt the carbon cycle and
contribute to global warming
● Many forested areas have to first be stripped, releasing large amounts of CO2
● Extraction is costs and requires a high input of complex technology, energy and water
● Tar Sands
○ Tar sands are a mixture of clay, sand and water and bitumen
○ Boreal forests are stripped, removing their trees.
○ Tar sands are mined and refined
○ They are injected with steam to separate the tar from sand and to make it less viscous so
it can be be pumped out
○
Canadian Tar Sands
○ Athabasca deposits contain 1.75 billion barrels
○ Tar sands produce 40% of Canada’s oil output
○ Projected economic benefits of $2.1 trillion
○ 90000 jobs made from the oil sands industry
○ Ruining the way of life for First Nation people
in Fort McMurray
○ Growing house market crises as thousands of migrants have moved in
○ Expensive process of extraction - $10-$20 a barrel to extract bitumen
from tar sands compared to $2 from conventional sources
○ Open pit mining destroys the scenic beautiful boreal forests
○ It adds to greenhouse gas emissions
○ It produces large amount of wastes - 2 tonnes of tar sands are required
for every barrel of oil
○ University of Michigan found that air around Fort McMurray had
carcinogenic pollutants
● Oil Shale
○ Oil bearing rocks that are permeable enough to allow oil the be pumped out.
○ The shale is ignited so that oil fractions can be pumped out
● Shale Gas
○ Natural gas that is trapped in fine grained sedimentary rocks are extracted through
fracking.
○ This involved pumping in water and chemicals which forces out the gas
○
USA Fracking
● In 2015, shale gas provided 25% of USA’s gas supply
● Fracking for oil in the USA has become a kay part of US oil
security and has an increasing influence on global oil price
Nuclear - Heat is ● 88,000,000 Mj per ● Power plant accidents ● Explosion in
produced by the kg - very high acn leave radiation into Chernobyl
reaction of Uranium energy density the sea, land and air spread
inside a nuclear ● Low carbon ● Radioactive Waste radiation
reactor, where the emissions storage is not fully across Europe
atoms are split by ● Newer practises are understood in 1986
nuclear fission, more safe ● Technology be used to ● Hinkley Point
releasing a large develop nuclear C cost £18
amount of energy weapons in rogue or billion creating
terrorist states 25000 jobs
● Mining uranium is dirty
and polluting
Hydroelectric Power - Large areas of useful land will be flooded; Silt is deposited upstream, making
farmers use more fertilizers. Rivers in the UK are too small to be viable
Geothermal Energy - Generally limited to volcanic areas, such as Iceland
Tidal Power - Tidal barrages may have significant impact on regional environment, as they are often in
estuaries of high ecological value
The UK’s energy mix
● Until the 1960s, UK’s main source was coal as there
were rich deposits in the North East, Midlands and
South Wales
● Coal becomes less profitable.
○ Released lots of CO2
○ Declining reserves of coal
○ Low energy density
○ Deindustrialization of industry to Asian
countries decreased demand - industry uses
60% less energy than in the 1970s
○ Unions started to demand higher wages
● In the 1980s, Thatcher oversaw an industrial holocaust where she privatised several industries
● The current government has planned to phase out all coal power plants by 2025
● Oil exploration continued in more politically stable areas (unlike the Middle East) leading to the
discovery of oil and natural gas in the North Sea
● Oil and gas have higher energy densities - 47 and 50 MJ per kg respectively as is much more
cleaner
● Fossil Fuels account for over 80% of UK's energy mix
● TRansport contribution has not changed much which may because its highly dependent on
the burning of petroleum and diesel. However, the UK is still using the same amount of energy
as it did in the e1970s, attributed to increases in efficiency. Houses now use 12% less energy
● In 1956, the first nuclear power plant opened in the UK
● Now accounts for 18.5% of UK’s energy due to its high energy density (88 million MJ per kg)
● In October, the Conservatives approved the construction of 8 new nuclear power plants
● The UK is still energy insecure - 60% of its energy is imported
● The UK has great potential for wind power as it received 40% of Europe's wind, making wind
farms viable. (see Hornsea project)
● 7% currently comes from renewable source. The UK has set itself a target of 15% by 2020
● Less potential for geothermal and hydroelectric power
(due to small size of rivers)
● In 2012,, unconventional sources started to help meet
energy demands after the Conservative government lifted a
ban on fracking.
● Radical technology has been attempted - e.g the first
hydrogen fueled taxis were put into service in time for the
summer 2012 Olympic Games
Biofuels as an energy source
● Biofuels are produced from biological raw materials
● There are primary biofuels, including fuelwood, wood chips etc and
other organic materials used for heating, cooking or electricity
generation
● Secondary biofuels are derived from biomass and include liquid biofuels - e.g. ethanol or
biodiesel used mainly as a vehicle fuel
● Energy density of 6-17 MJ per kg - less than coal
● In Brazil , bio refineries produce 930,000 barrels of oil per day, worth over $50 million a year for
BRazil
Strengths Weaknesses
● Fuel Flex engines (work on combination of ● Extreme weather can can impact crop
petrol and sugarcane ethanol) have yield and destroy harvest, driving up the
decrease greenhouse emissions price of biofuels
● Cars on ethanol emit 80% less CO2 ● The supply chain can be costly, making
them uncompetitive with traditional fossil
● The use of bioethanol has reduced Brazil;s
fuels
CO2 emissions by 350 million tons.
● Farming may encourage intense use of
● Biodiesel can be produced, distributed pesticides and fertiliser, which use fossil
and used within existing fuel fuels in their production and may lead to
infrastructure eutrophication of water supplies
● Renewable energy source as the crops ● Encourage large scale deforestation
can be replanted again and again cancelling out reduction in CO2 emissions
● Provide rural inward investment which ● Hectare of space used to grow energy
can have multiplier effects - eg jobs, crops is a hectare less for growing food -
especially where hunger is an issue
improvements in infrastructure
○ Food shortages can occur, leading
to higher food prices, enforcing
rural inequalities
●
● Biofuels are climate dependent, and future temperature and rainfall changes are not fully know
with much certainty and so biofuels may not be the best method for a country to achieve energy
security or reduce carbon emissions
Radical Energy Sources
These can help reduce carbon emissions but there is uncertainty as to how far this is possible
● Carbon Capture and Storage
○ Captures CO2 from coal fired power plants.
○ The gas is transported, compressed and stored deep into the
suitable geological reservoirs as a liquid 800m below ground
○ The storage is closely minutes to ensure safety and no releases
into the atmosphere
○ IT does not allow the carbon flux to occur as it captures the
carbon dioxide released from burning fossil fuels
○ CSS can reduce CO2 emissions by up to 19%. Leading to
climate benefits and lower pollution
○ It is incredibly expensive process due to the complex technology involved - (unavailable
for developing countries as ideally every power plant would need this)
○ No one is certain whether the CO2 will stay trapped underground of it will leak to the
surface. The leakage could damage human health
○ Could extend the use of fossil fuels by allowing for a business as usual approach as it
won't decrease actual carbon emission
● Hydrogen Fuel Cells
○ Hydrogen reacts with oxygen releasing energy use to generate electricity, used to drive
an electric motor with pure water as a by product
○ Hydrogen fuel cells do not generate carbon dioxide when
burnt
○ Hydrogen is not found in its pure form and has to be
separated, Separation of hydrogen from other elements
requires energy
○ Very few filling stations currently sell hydrogen
○ Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe.
○ It is high in energy and an engine would produce almost no pollution
● Electrical Vehicles
○ USe electricity stores in a battery pack to power an electric motor to turn the wheels
○ The batteries can be recharged using grid electricity
○ Electric cars do not produce tailpipe pollution
○ The greenhouse gases associated with the product depends on an individual country’s
energy mix. So electric cars are friendly in Iceland (geothermal) less so In India (mainly
coal)
○ Distances in purely electric vehicles are still short before lengthy recharging is needed
○ There are few public charging points
○ Virtually no noise pollution
○ They are currently more expensive to buy
EQ3: How are the carbon and water cycles linked to the
global climate system?
Growing demand for food, fuel and other resources globally has led to contrasting regional trends in
land use cover
● Between 1990-2015, world energy use increased by 54%, driven mainly by economic
development
● The UN estimates the population to increase to 9.2 billion by 2050. The implications include
more demand for food, fuel and resources.
● 1.4 billion suffered from hunger in 2015 and so there is a need to increase food production in
some world regions
● The IPCC estimates 24% of greenhouse gas emissions came from agriculture and land use
change
● Deforestation
○ 30% of the Earth’s land area is covered by forests.
■ 30% of all global forest cover has been completely
cleared.
○ The main driving force of deforestation is demand for
production for exchange in the market as well from construction
of dams and reservoirs
○ 50% of all deforestation is for soy, palm oil, beef and paper
production.
○ Developing countries rely on fuelwood creating pressures on
forests and impact on human health.
○ In Madagascar, tropical forests have been cleared (⅔ of it has been lost) due to demand
for tropical hardwood, expanding population, and debt repayments. The government
encouraged farmers to clear more land to grow cash crops to earn money to help repay
country’s debt
○ Effect on water cycle:
■ Reduced infiltration and so runoff and erosion increased
■ Flood peaks higher and lag times shorter
■ Increased discharge leads to flooding
○ Effects on soil health
■ Biomass is lose due to reduce plant growth
■ Rapid soil erosion leads to a losee on nutrients
○ Impacts on the Atmosphere
■ Oxygen content is lower
■ transpiration rates decrease making the air less humid and dryer
■ Turbulence is increases as the heated ground individuals convectional air currents
○ Impacts on the biosphere:
■ Less absorption of CO2 leads to reduced carbon store
■ Species diversity is reduced if temperatures increase
● Afforestation
○ Beneficial for CO2 sequestration through photosynthesis
○ EU Afforestation Grant Scheme encourage planting of forests for their value as carbon
stores and for ecosystem services they provide
○ Under poor management they can result in a reduction of biodiversity due to
monocultures - e.g. of palm oil plantations - and non indigenous species. These store less
carbon, use more water and are more disease prone
○
● Conversion of Grassland to croplands
○ Increasing meat production could increase methane
emissions in India and China
○ Degraded soil lose organic matter and moisture, and so
are not very capable of storing carbon
○ Soils store 3x more carbon than vegetation and so when
soils dry out, the emit carbon rather than store it
○ Peat rich soils cover 3% of the world’s land area bt store
25% of the global soil carbon store
○ Grasslands that are too intensively used for animals or when ploughed are disrupting the
carbon and water cycle
○ During 2007-2015, farms were encouraged to grow corn and sugarcane as biofuel rush
swept the Midwest of America
○ Over 5.5 million hectares of natural grassland disappeared across the American midwest
○ Grasslands trap moisture and flood water. They absorb toxins from the soil and maintain
healthy soils, They ensure a maintenance of natural habitats
○ GRasslands act as a carbon sink, absorbing CO2 and releasing O2 all year round - acting
as a terrestrial carbon store
○ Biofuels use carbon based nitrogen fertilizers and chemical pesticides, producing a net
increase in CO2 emissions,
○ Biofuels are a heavy consumer of water too, requiring irrigation
Ocean acidification
● World’s oceans play an important role in the sequestration of carbon
● 30% of CO2 produced by humans are absorbed humans
● CO2 combines with water to form carbonic acid and as the levels of dissolved CO2 increased, the
oceans pH decreases, becoming more acidic -known as ocean acidification
● It is suggested that acidification will reduce ecosystem resilience and increase the risk of marine
ecosystems reaching a critical threshold of permanent damage
○ However higher acidity may affect marine organisms to build shells and skeletons
○ The reduced carbonate ions in the water means corals spend more energy building
shells, resulting in thinner or smaller shells in molluscs reducing coral reef building ability
○ Corals rely on algae to provide food to the corals through carbohydrates produced during
photosynthesis
■ If the water becomes too warm, he algae are ejected and the coral turns white
which is known as coral bleaching
○ Coral reefs support 35% of marine species, protect shorelines from erosion, supporting
fishing industries and provide tourism income
○ Acidification means that ecosystems are affected such as the complex food web. If corals
die, this may reduce habitats for other marine life in the ecosystem, leading to a decline in
biodiversity and ecosystem productivity
Increasing frequency of drought
● There are 30 different climate zones on Earth - simplified to desert, temperate, tropical and
polar. These are not static
● A warming of 2oC could lead to 5% of the EArth’s land area shifting to a new climate zone
● Climate belts have begun to shift
○ Semi-arid and arid areas have started to expand into continental areas of Asia
○ Poleward movement of stormy wet weather into the mid latitudes
○ More frequent hot summers in many places
○ Coldest climate zones will reduce in size
● Droughts are periods of below average precipitation in a given region
What is the role of forests in climate regulation - Amazon
● Control climate at local, regional and global scale
○ Trees sequester and store large amounts of carbon. The Amazon basin holds over 17%
of the terrestrial vegetation carbon store
■ Rising temperatures have caused widespread drought which has caused forests
to degrade and release stored carbon
■ CO2 emissions have increased due to more frequent wildfires and decomposing
dead wood as more trees died
■ The Amazon, during the 2005 drought, emitted 5 billion tonnes of CO2 - far more
than the carbon absorbed
○ They absorb and store rainfall
■ The Amazon rainforest pumps over 20 billion metric tonnes of water into the
atmosphere daily
■ They add to the atmosphere humidity through transpiration
■ Humidity lowers the pressure, allowing moisture from the Atlantic Ocean to reach
further inland than areas without forest cover
■ Rainfall has decreased downwinfd of deforested areas
■ Precipitation extremes however cause flooding, resulting in soil erosion
● The IPCC warn that droughts could become more frequent in the Amazon region in the future
● Species which prefer it wet all year around are going to be challenged
● Deforestation can decrease rainfall locally, which dries out rainforest and causes it to die back -
i.e. a positive feedback loop is formed
● Ultimately the Amazon rainforest could change from a carbon sink to a carbon source
○ Unilever and NEstle cancelled their contracts with IOI but it can be questioned whether
the group have actually changed their practises
Precipitation patterns, river regimes and (the cryosphere and drainage basin) water stores
Increased concentration of greenhouse gases will
● Increase the earth’s average temperature
● Change amount and pattern of precipitation levels
● Increase sea level
● Decrease ice and snow cover and permafrost
● Increase acidity of the oceans
● Increase frequency and intensity of extreme weather events
There is uncertainty of global projections over precipitation patterns, river regimes as well cryosphere
and drainage basin water stores. The cryosphere refers to the frozen part of the Earth’s surface
ARCTIC CASE STUDY
● The Arctic plays a large role in global climate as its sea ice regulates evaporation and
precipitation
● The ARctic is very sensitive to climate change as its stores far more carbon but is also very
vulnerable to global warming, making predictions difficult
● Thawing permafrost is released methane and carbon dioxide as well as CO2 being released to
increased forest fires as boreal forests dry out
● Arctic temperatures have risen twice as fast as global averages - 3-4 degrees in Alaska
● Arctic Ocean could be ice free by 2037
● The ARctic is considered as the barometer of the world
● High risk of irreversible feedback as there is a loss of the Arctic Albedo. Increased greenhouse
gases releases, increases the temperature leading to melting o f ice. Ice high reflective index
means reflection of the sun's rays, instead the rays will be absorbed if there is less ice cover,
causing more melting, creating a positive feedback loop.
● Precipitation Patterns
○ Increase temps, lead to increased evaporation and atmospheric water vapour
○ Across Yukon, precipitation will increase by between 5% and 20% by 2100
○ Greater proportion fall as rain in spring and less as snow
● River Regimes
○ Warm water will flow into the Arctic from the PAcific and Atlantic
○ Ablation of glacial ice, such as in Greenland which will alter runoff and create more
river ice floods
■ Since 2000, inflows to the Yukon River have increased by 29% due to
increased temperature and precipitation
○ Runoff of fresh, cold water will later marine ecosystems and saline water dependent
food chains
● Cryosphere and drainage basin water Stores
○ Arctic sea ice and spring snow cover have continued to decrease in extent and
thickness - averages only 3m thickness
○ Total ice area in Yukon decreased by 22%
Uncertainty over future emissions
○ Representative Concentration PAthways are scenarios that
describe the trajectories for CO2 emissions, They consider a
wide range of possible climate policy outcomes
○ The Highest emission pathway (RCP 8.5) provides the
nightmare scenarios where emissions grow at a rapid rate.
Population growth is at the high end at 12 billion by 2100
○ The lowest emissions pathway (RCP 2.6) suggests the best case scenario for limiting
anthropogenic climate change, requiring a huge turnaround in climate policies. Oil use
declines and fossil fuel increase is offset by carbon capture and storage. Renewable
Energy source use increases.
○ Surface temperature will continue to increase and rise by 2-6 degrees between 2000
and 2100
Why is the future uncertain
● Natural Factors
○ The role of carbon sinks
■ Terrestrial Stores
● The stores will convert to a source of CO2
○ Tundra permafrost with thaw in the Arctic
○ Shift of Boreal forests may be able to store more nutrients
○ Tropical rainforests may reduce their storage especially after
drought
■ Oceanic stores
● Increase store in algae
● Decrease overall as a sink due to tropical oceans storing less carbon -
colder water stores more carbon
● Decreased efficiency and slowing down of the biological pump taking
nutrients and dissolved inorganic carbon
● Human Factors
○ Economic Growth
■ Economic slowdowns reduce manufacturing emissions
■ This also slows down investment into greener alternatives to fossil fuels
especially if new resources are found (US fracking)
■ Difficult to predict the rate countries may develop and industrialise
○ Population
■ Increased globalised world drives demand on resources and creates greater
carbon emissions
■ Increased affluence in emerging countries means extra 1 billion consumers by
2050
○ Energy Sources
● Feedback mechanism
○ Carbon released from peatlands and permafrost
○ Tipping points (Forest dieback and thermohaline circulation)
■ Feedback mechanisms are processes that lead to further consequences
■ They can be positive - lead to additional and enhanced changes in that system
■ Or they can be negative - dampen original process
■ In 2014, the IPCC initiatives 7 tipping points - i.e. point that are abrupt and
possible irreversible
● Atlantic thermohaline circulation collapses - salty water may not sink in
the north if there is increased volumes of freshwater from melting ice in
the Arctic.
● Seabed methane release - methane gas may become released from
seabed sediments
● Dieback of tropical rainforests - Drought and fires may decrease the ability
of rainforests to store carbon. If the water cycle (precipitation) is affected,
trees will die back during droughts leading to a positive feedback loop
● Dieback of boreal forests - arctic ecosystems are vulnerable to thawing
permafrost, shrubs spreading into the tundra, increased number of pests
and fires in the boreal forests
● Arctic ocean free of ice in summer
● Long term droughts - especially in the subtropical dry zones that move
poleward which modifies the Hadley cell over a long timescale
● Collapse of monsoon climate circulation
Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies for a changed climate
Adaptation: New ways of doing things in order to live with the effects of climate change
Mitigation: Rebalancing the carbon cycle and reducing any impacts of climate change
Adaptation Strategy Key Points
Water Conservation and ● Planning, developing and distributing water resources under
Management defined water policies and regulations
● Less resources are used which less ground abstraction
● Efficiency and conservation can’t match increased demands
for water
● Requires promotion and enforcement of government
● Israel managed its supplies of freshwater using smart
irrigation (water plants through an automated programmed
schedule), recycle sewage water for agriculture use, importing
water in food as virtual water which relieves the pressure on
domestic water resources. Manage demand for charging real
value prices for water to reflect the cost of supply of an
ecosystem management
Resilient Agricultural Systems ● Use of higher tech, drought tolerant species help resistance to
climate change and increased diseases
● Better practises generate healthier soil and help water
storage as well as CO2 sequestration - e.g reduced ploughing
● Increased yield reduce the food insecurity.
● Increased income for farmers plus improved soil structure
● Can be more expensive, making it viable in developing
countries
● Genetic modification brings ethical issues
Land use planning ● Building restrictions are placed in areas vulnerable to flooding
and low lying coasts
● Land use resettling may be feasible (e.g. in megacities such as
Dhaka, Bangladesh)
● Needs strong governance, enforcement and compensation
Solar radiation management ● Geoengineering includes ideas and plants for writing
sate;ot;es to reflect some inward radiation back into space
● Would offset the effects of greenhouse gases
● Untried and untested
● It would not alter acidification effects
● May have unintended consequences
Re-balancing the carbon cycle could be achieved through mitigation but this requires global scale
agreement and national actions both of which have proved to be problematic.
Mitigation Strategy Key Points
Carbon Taxation ● Tax for free paid by companies of fossil fuels, which is linked
to carbon dioxide emissions that the fuel produces
● Aims to encourage cleaner forms of energy sources
● Farming can have high taxes on fertilizers that have pollutants
such as nitrogen
● Cars currently pay a flat rate, regardless on carbon emissions
● Raises revenue which can be spent on mitigation pollution
● Encourages firms to look for alternatives
● Firms may change production to countries that don’t tax
● May discourage investment and economic growth
Renewable Switching ● Change a country’s energy mix - Encourage the uptake of
renewable energy sources, away from fossil fuels
● UK has set itself a target of 15% from renewable sources by
2020
● Provides a greener outlook for the future as well economic
growth in new industries
● Fossil fuels will be still be required for current infrastructure as
renewable suffer from storage and reliability issues a