Markov Analysis Question

By. Group 3

• 1511011044 Muhammad Adjoyasa

• 1511011068 Muhammad Faqih Idris

• 1511011096 Aziz Hatta Aprizar

• 1511011104 Syaiful Anwar

• 1511011118 Bima Pratama Putra

• 1511011136 Rendi Saputra

Q1:

The University of South Wisconsin has had steady enrollments over the past five years.
The school has its own bookstore, called University Book Store, but there are also three
private bookstores in town: Bill’s Book Store, College Book Store, and Battle’s Book
Store. The university is concerned about the large number of students who are switching
to one of the private stores. As a result, South Wisconsin’s president, Andy Lange, has
decided to give a student three hours of university credit to look into the problem. The
following matrix of transition probabilities was obtained:

At the present time, each of the four bookstores has an equal share of the market. What will the market
shares be for the next period?

Q2:
In Section 15.7, we investigated an accounts receivable problem. How would the paid category and the bad
debt category change with the following matrix of transition probabilities?
Answer:

Asumsi bahwa market shaer keempat toko buku sama besar, berarti masing
masing toko buku memiliki kondisi persentase 25%.

Market share for university :

= (0.25)(0.6) + (0.25)(0) + (0.25)(0.1) + (0.25)(0.55)
= 0.15 + 0 + 0.03 + 0.01
= 0.19

Market Share for Bill’s

= (0.25)(0.2) + (0.25)(0.7) + (0.25)(0.1) + (0.25)(0.05)
= 0.05 + 0 .18+ 0.03 + 0.01
= 0.27

Market Share for Collage’s

= (0.25)(0.1) + (0.25)(0.2) + (0.25)(0.8) + (0.25)(0.1)
= 0.03 + 0 .05 + 0.2 + 0.03
= 0.31

Market Share for Bettle’s

= (0.25)(0.1) + (0.25)(0.1) + (0.25)(0) + (0.25)(0.8)
= 0.03 + 0 .03 + 0 + 0.2
= 0.26

Dari perhitungan diatas, terlihat penurunan poin yang dimiliki oleh Universitas,
yang awalnya 25% turun menjadi 19% atau 0.19. sedangkan di toko buku yang
lain mengalami peningkatan.

1 0 0 0

0 1 0 0

0.2 0 0.2 0.1

0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2

 1 0 0 0
1=[ ] 0=[ ]
0 1 0 0

0.7 0 0.2 0.1

A=[ ] B=[ ]
0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2

Matriks fundamental :

F = (1-B)-1
1 0 0.2 0.1 -1
F = ([ ]− [ ])
0 1 0.2 0.2
0.8 −0.1 -1
F=[ ]
−0.2 0.8
Maka invers matriks nya

r = ad-bc

r = (0.8)(0.8) – (-0.1)(-0.2)

r = 0.64 – 0.02 = 0.62

di substitusikan,
0.8 −0.1 -1
F=[ ]
−0.2 0.8
0.8 −0.1
0.62 0.62
F= [−0.2 0.8
]
0.62 0.62

F = [1.29 0.16]
0.32 1.29

Selanjutnya, dalam menghitung paid category dan bad debt nya, kita perlu mengalikan
matriks A dengan matriks F

1.29 0.16 0.7 0

F.A = [ ] X [ ]
0.32 1.29 0.4 0.2
0.96 0.03
F.A = [ ]
0.74 0.26
Analisis :

Baris atas : Kategori “Less Then One Month” = 0.96 dan 0.3

Baris bawah : Kategori “One to Three Month” = 0.74 dan 0.26