~ Health Sysiem clynamics Systems: Group of paris ‘working ingetha > produce o pornadey result | pehavior Yo Systems con be various ccales Y Cells, HSsuee 2 Olgens. <9 funchoung tempnsing OF Speci te_unter- cen ectivay ef funchoreb SubunisS which prciuce parHustor cot pute Air Nees, inpars (give st 1 Syste betraviod> ype’ beravidty . A “system changing in time _« Dynami € Syserns response input rUrparor sy pers - __Dehruhons p Cauee t dicgroms: Determines how 2 syslemn benaca bond thy Jb behcuce pe weg 4 ooeo H gygstem behaves is gesrates Form wrhe the Susie = and that are vette of one (more coun’ | Fedloack loops ae 4 pundestond gysiem behawsour ) tidenhhy sytem Tela bons bps YW CLD ups LF rMlahonships _ using mows Fphysics os a tool , Model: » representation + reabty Fa cyien ' Fare impor Foc * phy sicae meamlements ale adjuskd - amoiding 1 speutic modele fo acknewledge whith systern iis f. i Moa be rap hr ossumprion of reality d _Aasiump ions Gremede an bow a rreclel Works _ A moaet of “reolity » a model whida rpesents reobity _ funtitic metied way to cbsuue > forma _nypoinesis od Venfy changes i origino® hypokiests 7 giving. Feeclecck. Fast Friendly Service. Delivered with a Smile.“CAUSAL LOOP 5 gives feadioack) _ feenrity key Conti outers _ 3i Lin fiwer ae Toc TS 2" loop ¢ end type __ Relations hip betwen a an event (couse) ad 2 ece7d ___ event leftect) as a result of fiest ewent. _ a Devent event is be oenebley 4 physicck quentity I — emp a Ss 4 in me direction: couse @ effect + __ _ “How dees ts oFfecr 8) 7 eee Boe T . peuiive este ae gr) thats ee Boh ve WA then 6L, __ _ —4T omer y - neq: AD san BL jst tn hd “CLD = deterime why a syskm behaate Me way 7 Syshem benaviaw 14 generated fom within +r 2ysten _ ond beny cerale in /more ce’ oo must undectand Feedlonck to Uroteritend fy Adepitt relatiorshipc ee ~ Sheps ; —_ — “Variables in in yy Gesu jphion — - — iechon orn | (aule - etter Onesrnine, iataashe D Cause to see oo ~~ ® riake rype WH (4 /-) ’ - ap a h fe yp OODP _ Rauf bevel Diegions acer reece “0 fepresnt (catakatioa in sysem (5) Gow) __ 9 fale represents Flow in sysiems —anadahen Rae _ Change in levels regul mn o Comb oF inflows ® outflays —% conrelled by feediock within syskm . Derivative & Rare In regrohion = ae Y oe ch aes 5 fe 4 : Ge “4% * Lewe/ of fects. Rave” Oe » CLO ae Q_ limited descuphor) Me = WRLD_ provide more sight into mulHple factois that nbol iyyen behauiays / Rate vs fevel? Reales ¥ bowls _ Raks P levels are vital fo loop sub stwetwr ~ Wy Frese Hire - then rates or wclefyrecl, leels on fixed. : lo Lele P tater ate not distinguitned by unity of mvosuR 4 vuouty ; * levels wre Only Whanged by fates, _ hunger ————> g _ “tad oe ~~ Rae 3 flows bowl? aqui= Exercise CLD ¥ Amount of ex - 3 _ pe oF!" - 3 what you gow — 3 finess — = . —— EE _ _ : — Running [egaing = of ~ ; ——s — __ — J Become physically + a fit ee ’ a 3 cord watcutor sheng th, ’ Foasen up eamactes 7 ! _ a ; RANK ACC CLD 4 dep in book. + _ Amount iy ecco \ _ . fithess ep pHa OS stentey | Se teens Trecst coinad ( - ~~ es cw Ke _ — \ “Vascular mode): ~~ _ _ » = Pai _ pe Pa. Fast Friendly Service. Delivered with a Smile.4) sine <«$ | Lt —s} tse 7 teavelobihhy 7 i ry yp) tr migearen BBputen. oy) rR pepera ton? "Nima A ra { ) rat for in Population — b. disease _ _ as eA pets : —=f- om “thidhaad __Unemploynrenk ms o loch of heotbsey - Feercige yea Suid ; rn a ~ a - —- r - Bi tcenht — a —_— - ‘poured Wohin Zz pornthood _ - - ; — Heel fea and Of openiony Ve yc 9 2 hmitanens 4 ery “hes _wsnraclly ee~Susems: - : ee a Syslems = > functional unit cwonsisting of furktier 0 cube Wy whibits grade (lewls # rake) be aurillony vYonables orher. In formanes _orrow (level tate dregiom) _ _ 2 Se Represent f sytem. ® equanons impute br LN lotha, tll epee 2 pyle feypore ee Case B re Munting eeour enumypriens mode beans of woke a dehe~ A Lurlid | “ir be whet yer do” VARIN BLES eae rep peicieued quantile « 2 Need te define avericble & tn. Legg ape te “Ta Soop 9 gio fed boot >No fedvan = aes Potve T 3 ob a 40 * balance (adn dw Onde finds —tteody tale .ed -x e ween Week 2:(CLD \ _YOSimple diagiamatic mp of inkrdcnog elements in a syskrs_mocled.. W CUD 4neip in undersianding stuctwe of mage: \ es a Sysiem varic| rates Yevels - used asa quatitaive mace of analysis — ___Wused in identifying feedback loops _ IN ClO no distincon mode Semcon taieo 8 Heels _ Bathiiu, 4g a mot V NauHfiow rate ae”: naw negahuc loge 4 Rqudoting teqo in flow (_ Volum e e_jeattiow Ike. _ 2 ToR 7 - open loop : qT With no fed back - ~ akeuel con be be Ranorck wesonvonume > ee _ _ Conrel Sy be - ROWer can tring Hirationally , ~ © CD show variables Mm osys with amos Showing infuachon? “Gem - Cocusoh lefferr) _ @D _AD_+ lsign) _deciease mh nfuancing Meriible exces a i offecled yer Gaus) /FAISE - te @ cp_~ sgn _plowd bin Influarcng vorietle cowoes Pin oly toi — FAlse —@ A cw mush always atehingitish lene typeo of vorete Ie A tele Je - _ TRue | - — — ~~ @ Guaidative assist wisuodicetes TRE _ _ _ ee— _ 2 ———- _ Din clo avechior of arrow? vei _ _ TRue ; - _ _ a DFogmet of dD > infuenco_ ee ZO” trumie of _ _ Amount of hord NGS me _wachiag No FALSE - : — 1O-I§ based onduis cL _SDEAC 41s not avalid lee. ABCA 9 valid 3 regathe /eaboneng | ap — AB COCA 9 PoSitie sop . Cause c a <: cwitta Ye UA OR fe if weld neue A. —————Yas Ouitiow coe ® He Vy Compeed ty whet it wonde’ hee ee het tener rolefied Otten hu? MS: 2yar neeo Not mae im opp ditr fr ste be neg. 4 to dedde cn sian of omer The T/v maybe 0 reiarte f /v compere’ _® wirare tt eed heme been hoof we rot ole Hy cored voricbte. 7 _ we (A teductoa im w will not come vi : ——— Viwauld % less focpidly 9 thus rt ) = wad be 4 HEL heol ve not DP inflen mks In 1 apfpoed Vw _ | Thus 4uere exists an Arntigouoness. | - - _ == on 7 fescurce woe, j System ayronucs con te Fy 19 ur} joo. = , pollurien , exporenttan rer guy nequrtelk go sf jervices * _ - 7 7 = _ as QO — : toop - = oa! eer, 10 Fegulorion ce! “4 o _ " a OF L > at continuing ® ow. ] OO 8 nas cmetore german | : T e Lgnemnics . ~ he _ _ suche oe } ( exponentcR gro _ Ya —ehiding rua Ngexpt? eae ( Laat y+ —— , oe & chicen' edit oromier . R_) Ce Dd = ope aa ——= 5A change in <9g° paaoron - cqweo cc] — Cheqge in =o chicken poptlatrors _—____— Sil bisdoc eck peed. a ffoho of nas elk Ons ge jnen rates wa ® us 3 Cate © ms hich, Bon yet HED.9 EDX. ucts 9 ud nehone! Thete are two furdarventals elennents 17 5° Auyi lory verab fe ress namely , levels 3 Rates neiner eet / okt ‘ii par ov some disuplnes it ts called stocks Pfiows rate level noremenciature. Initio vabise Se nrc tte Levels 7 stocks wofieae C8 SB ae Rates - flows e levers state of - - system. UNDERSTANDING DIFF BETWEEN Lever @ RATES NB! EXAMPLE rates delemned by “et nak tet us consider the guoaity of brood cells jn He Or cwtatian. Wwe put the number of reel 4/o0e/ cells nib a recto me box, whith is verve nornerciotus fer les. /S/ Tr is on cbsohik guerihy, 4 potal otcunna lated — OF Crt thet FS dewrouned by We rak of prcciuchion iol re bleod NE one foot it the rak. / “yf And tro tak of deg ocak” of RBC. Hor it oroftar 6. Ai ar hau on lor rok ? oufpus for, _ Th vensim If 2 CK orgiratee fom anywho Other than jnotros faci 1 ge choo! the sft -'g/0 And if it terminake enya other toon onc’to! le ot gen 4 couol of Itt xemminatie __— ~~ Pnd wnat fais really — ptas wnat fe ~onigin of Ae 1 Hood cells ord te ullmak fax of ROEM Pa inypor font Pe Oyrker_ hat Is innpertant us 15 this word ait The nee auctor : “Tre clouds as on nphie suree G RBC - “and an infinite cine % RBC ond ore eee 2 _fo our cansldloratins Tn ofrer pyeas of syskmo onatyyhs Ayo oe offen known os Stak Vvariableo- levers Psfapeol System _. 2 And er is becomce, 12-tnis Cace Phe punter Of 83 \ deterring Te condinin at” ony _partikor tt in pime. Levey emia Core™ _80 He rates alates SERMITEP Feeds, 10 oe! eo a All fesels ore Cetermred! oy by tre infer) (lo _ and 06th) 12 ralee ze ac. bepeen He Avo Hing ___ tenet rate, he take pray voy jn fine. reir Inshortanoeng valutg ore. continmeooly chengrg - dup teary hae no erm org The Muselh on fe oer hond haya mane oo _ ecanrator tnd in feck» wren we start o Jinulotion SS achua lly *Tieecl fo glue the lade a — Hal valve 4Q steiting™ vale, So_colled __UNITS ARE Net pod sf cegrcn D number ot fed blood cells at Whith the leels start when we begen the siimnusotinn. _ - ‘ y [@f ua 100k. ato feel With ene Wore general ote ficuwia gL 4 Az Ssh de 29. iq %& -s Rate ot equarolint dapruod. let us Consider te - : et ec rote flaung oF ond peihrgp+ onoter sate _fieavag oud The fates ore equ. Clas neTun in re peel cated! So, kt uo inGg ine Me guanthy dA /at In C6/Chine. A) Te deniuates of cach roe Or Whereao A, ot Couee 1s equal & be nigel Gf He — vanao aA/ah wish reect fo fre. Pour ty onl rot anc Pris ju why) @ jee! i ta fork 1 $70 _atarrraler7— OPA Tne units okcauae for tr Soleo woutd be vorme guartiley ~ fo for eq. in te red brace cel! Cade, jpewould bo _ eyrnegjite 7 cells /dag jaside the lee) WOuld be tet ped tre quentty Pp of that edt, Cope Jo fire. So. te seatel juot be cote, — “Wwe hue. considercd red bloce! cells OL @ temed ond Pe rate of auch ond Cegrodce 0? A the fata. ——— but eR at ook at _o faa rate, eve) Poire. ————— ta con fring Ghat autena treweled ondtre speed fe wag rake we Conk 100k. ate chorge stored bn. ~eupacitater ond te raf of cance {6 rent a Luds Rear ee oo — distenae —~ speed — — a — tren POI meg correntAnd you thould kecare_Jood &- thinking — Y che feu) Fak pare. 7 = aegis — offerahare _ — — This iste bssera of HED. (Tar _ on a : FF ego ba — __7Feeus on graphica) undesiomding— _ — Undestond tne Off behvan ee flow 9 Gceurnallod __ attention od diffeortiatian ow inverter qe are —— ___@natrer Form cn inseperabe _poirag 10 480. -Forma_ fundarmmenta/ theorem of Wlethus, : wheea level Aural ko jor tnleg Fate pire os OTE het rate over hme. - oo Net faie__indicakes fate of Change jor cerivaieef the fee} vt Fon 2 graphical peispechive , Hay means thot 't e the faci is f ota Constont fete, Indicated by —— 4 Styaght lite, tren tre rok of Shunge / fale is vodient’ ito te Net rak a2 9 canton constent Te in is care CE). Tarp from the level , you con ae tor [ths net. fate thirotgh affererto _—_ —— —New le look at fe rak curse. You one Jorg fe __ do Same imo Hing a " erty Tt you wire to COVE. tha actxmotiiie ofta Uncls mae! true, Mtus fouls 07 fre pt Rem. Pe OfCwralotre oco end th level Une gum Gro Unde) the OK curve _(orrtipind( fo pupple {hedeg Gna. Prdthat crea is = fy fre Night times the _ Cant Beanies Ont e- mon. s: i : = indicated here by the straight line, then the rate of change, or gradient, gives the net -rate as a constant. In this case, positive. Therefore, from the level, you can get the net rate through differentiation. Now, let us look at the rate curve. You are going to have to do some imagining for me. If you were to calculate the cumulative area under the curve, and this is what I mean. Let us focus on time point zero. Obviously, at that point the cumulative area is equal to zero and, therefore, the level curve goes through the origin. Now, let us look at time point 1. The 3 cumulative area under the rate curve corresponds to the purple-shaded area. And that area is equal to the height times the Z width. So, it is equal to m times 1 and, g therefore, the point on the level curve has been drawn corresponding to m. “Let us look at time point 2. The cumulative 2 area under the rate curve corresponds to the red-shaded area. _And this has an area equal to the height times B® the width and, Z-From this it can be seen that the level curve 2 this level cu g previously bu conditions. Therefore, Again, for time point 3, we have got the light therefore, equal to 2m. blue-shaded area with a corresponding height “times width of 3m. -is a straight line with a gradient that matches that of the rate. rve has the same shape as t it is offset by the initial xe from the rate you can get the level # through integration. gy Examples of across include: level rate pairs you will come Energy and power; volume and flow; and charge and current. ascpona s Ingenio to eurput Zero-order aystery: Rak is constant ? ' le Roiders delay. Posifie todbax S Soesty degond on acl 6 Today I am going to introduce the concept of a zero order system. ero > ‘ I intend to define the concept, provide some “\eperceut & examples, introduce some basic mathematics, A tered, g illustrate the concept graphically and show you how to model such a system. e The definition of a zero order system is one ‘ in which the rate is {ndependent) of the level. : General examplés of zero order Systems include = anything where the [Fates are constant| such as, . an open tap filling up a bath or a pump { pumping water out of a tank at a constant rate. Medical examplés include: an intravenous | infusion; taking blood at a constant rate during a blood donor process; or an incubators ~heating element, to name but a few. Now, be warned that I will present some mathematics, but if you are not that way constaut i on - _inclined do not worry. lel Rot _Vensim does it for you and I am simply kK LL — presenting the basics for those who are Rake interested. dey Mathematically, a zero order system can be — indicated by this equation: Rate is equal to a ———seatte fale“ Gonstant. Sere = constant and Le \} _is represented b fe letter»? Wtew . ='L Tau is equal to i over k, OF siarly, © 18 : a 3 3 3 3 2 =) a a rate of decay and similarly a a a a a z 4a a ~~ equal to 1 over tau. —~qt has time units to match the of thet * — associated rate constant- ; oat —-when t is equal to tau the 1 wil hav ' X ___decayed to appr imately 37% she init. > v a-Gy- et (ow) ket |] Te v1 . coat Friendly Service. Delivered with & ‘sini TEassociated rate constant. . —-when t is equal to tau the l~ will has a -decayed to approximately 37° of the nit _value. . sey This comes from ~olving an ‘quatvor avo : = iti:a for your interest only and 16k _ : RUy=RWet* | “understanding, , ; but, if you substitute t equ > tan in he ersi/2 equation you will come out t 37% Et etn initial value. Te Gar - Due to the expon: ntial shapr ofte# © fur ey, time constant the level wil. haw dc -aye > t approximately 37% of 37% of the .nitial \ :lue, pna20% and so on, 397 Of 34° Ble % GD _ -wuntil after approximately 3 time con tan’, nop) 9 Sime further appreciable decay occurs Sumy consti! ¥ asthe “This effect is © so seen when consi ny e ! = concept of half —ives. ; sae - triken — A half life is defined as the ¥i the level to reach half its Inft’al “alv _ It is indicated by the symbe] & hol’ anc units of time. Soluhon A half life is :-lated to tie rat» ast foung through an equation which is ¢olued -or Ineg ration ual ro R({) e to em _ knowing R(t) i g t equal: & kt and substit ) “again the detail is not important th 7 -result is. as Let us continue vith the ma‘h¢ an! Lat, at the end you get the relationship . _equal to 1n2 over k or k is [M2 ove . ; 1n2 is approxim:*2ly 0.693. The 2° “ therefore relat to the tine con gh “this relationsh: where t half is ¢ au 1n2 or tau is t walf over laL -—This is shown in this graph wnere &: a —to be longer then t half. _What you really ve to tak: home from this is that a first or, r decaying Systm Con be modeled in leve’ rate and c usa] loop Cie gens as indicated. . The solution can be found tl rough Li ee: 1 and has an expo ‘ntial deca: gha ’ Joh be described b: half life t'mt congtant g vate aanctant Fast nonuly oorviee, venvered wore sume.nate etn tee GE he “ a ° “The solutio y Rat oli hts Rea) — —and has an exe ee, Found Sarev gah integra tione all ‘ abe desertp PB cial decay Which con > tbhed bh @ aalf life™~ & ime stant «andi ediaatd —_rate constant. RU =R C%)Ci- we * pecay _*4 related exponential equation is tet o R Lt) “Pecorery __ sana to R at nity 1 minus € to tm minus RLe)=Rlsy, t, where R at infinity corvec pone to tne Final Poleady (Ve final value, or steady state tt ~The equation has tais shape onl it isin fot + es —the inverse of ¢@aponential deciy wih tw Sone yrate constant, time constan id} But instead of decay, can be thoucht of aos recovery. e ‘In this diagre ft is sho that Ow half li fe —corresponds tc te time afiu ghich half of ir —the curve has rt -gvown . __and the time constant corre gponds bof, Invited a of 37% Gy buh at value,s t is now 1 minias 37%, OXF \-377°) _ > —an example of wakr empty:.1g eit ¢ oe tonk ond —into another-is Ff as an txarcige for you to ——better grasp these systems.