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Sylvain Vervoort
March 30, 2018

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: March 30, 2018.
Last week I wrote: "Last week I mentioned: "I guess the B-wave is completed and the
index will continue to move down. First target is around 2700 where there is price
support, support from the PP pivot level of the month and support from the 100-day
average and the low side of the volatility band. The medium term target for the
completion of the C-wave is at 2450." The past week the index moved down to the PP
level of the month and price support. This support only lasted a couple of days and was
broken with a gap, now reaching exactly the 200 days average. A lower bottom both in
price and the SRSI confirms a possible pullback the coming week. Also, the possible
higher bottom with the low of wave A and lower bottom in the SRSI is a hidden
divergence also confirming that a pullback should be expected. However since we do
not have a wave C already we must expect a further down move after this possible
correction. The down target is around 2450. Read my updated comments here for
the weekly chart and monthly chart for more information regarding the longer
term view."
Last week I predicted a pullback writing: "A lower bottom both in price and the SRSI
confirms a possible pullback the coming week. Also, the possible higher bottom with
the low of wave A and lower bottom in the SRSI is a hidden divergence also confirming
that a pullback should be expected." I assume that this consolidation phase and pullback
is not yet finished. I expect a correction up to previous price support once more
becoming price resistance. This is the level around 2700. However since we do not have
a wave C already we must expect a further down move after this correction phase. The
first down target is around 2450. Read my updated comments here for the weekly
chart and monthly chart for more information regarding the longer term view.
Sylvain Vervoort http://stocata.org/
Posted by Sylvain Vervoort on March 30, 2018 at 08:32 AM in Sylvain Vervoort,

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March 24, 2018

Last week I wrote: "A week ago the index reached the upper side of the volatility band
with a new higher top. The past week there was a correction bringing the index down to
the 50-day average. There is a negative divergence between the higher top in price and
lower top in the Stochastic RSI indicator. I guess the B-wave is completed and the index
will continue to move down. First target is around 2700 where there is price support,
support from the PP pivot level of the month and support from the 100-day average and
the low side of the volatility band. The medium term target for the completion of the C-
wave is at 2450. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly
chart for more information regarding the longer term view."
Last week I mentioned: "I guess the B-wave is completed and the index will continue to
move down. First target is around 2700 where there is price support, support from the
PP pivot level of the month and support from the 100-day average and the low side of
the volatility band. The medium term target for the completion of the C-wave is at
2450." The past week the index moved down to the PP level of the month and price
support. This support only lasted a couple of days and was broken with a gap, now
reaching exactly the 200 days average. A lower bottom both in price and the SRSI
confirms a possible pullback the coming week. Also, the possible higher bottom with
the low of wave A and lower bottom in the SRSI is a hidden divergence also confirming
that a pullback should be expected. However since we do not have a wave C already we
must expect a further down move after this possible correction. The down target is
around 2450. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly
chart for more information regarding the longer term view.

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March 17, 2018

STwo weeks ago I wrote: "As expected last week the index finished the wave B up
correction on Tuesday and started the move down for Correction wave C. As I already
mentioned with the weekly chart, the B retrace is rather large which possibly means the
the correction is not a B-wave but, rather an impulse wave 2 correction. For now I just
leave the current annotation because, both expect a further move down. The first target
is 2450. If it is a wave 3 that is coming, the first target will be lower to around 2380.
Note the negative divergence (1) higher tops in price and lower tops in the SRSI
indicator that announced the first move down from top [5]. Next there is a convergent
move (2) that made us expect a correction wave B up. And now another convergent
move with lower tops or a hidden divergent move that informs us to expect a
continuation of the previous down move. There is resistance for an up move with static
price resistance and resistance of the PP-Pivot level of the month. Better be prepared for
a continuation of the downtrend. Read my updated comments here for the weekly
chart and monthly chart for more information regarding the longer term view."
A week ago the index reached the upper side of the volatility band with a new higher
top. The past week there was a correction bringing the index down to the 50-day
average. There is a negative divergence between the higher top in price and lower top in
the Stochastic RSI indicator. I guess the B-wave is completed and the index will
continue to move down. First target is around 2700 where there is price support, support
from the PP pivot level of the month and support from the 100-day average and the low
side of the volatility band. The medium term target for the completion of the C-wave is
at 2450. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart for
more information regarding the longer term view.

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March 4, 2018
A week ago I wrote: "Closing the week a fraction higher. Last week I mentioned: "With
lower lows both in the index and the SRSI indicator we have a convergent move.
Basically this means that price is making a correction. If this is the case we are probably
finishing a B-wave and now expecting the C-Wave down. A and C waves are generally
about the same size. If this will be the case here, the index can go down to 2400 to
finish the C-wave" But, perhaps I overlooked the other possibility meaning, the index is
not making a first ABC correction but, a 5-impulse wave down for a longer term wave
A correction. If that is the case the index now makes the wave 2 correction. Since a
wave 2 correction can retrace up to 100% of wave 1, the index may go further up to the
last top. That will be confusing because you will be thinking that the up move is
continuing. If the index moves further up now, the chance that we are making a
correction wave 2 becomes more lightly. Looking at the Elliott count in the weekly
chart, even making a higher top is not impossible. All rather confusing for the moment.
A close follow up is needed! Read my comments here on the weekly chart and monthly
As expected last week the index finished the wave B up correction on Tuesday and
started the move down for Correction wave C. As I already mentioned with the weekly
chart, the B retrace is rather large which possibly means the the correction is not a B-
wave but, rather an impulse wave 2 correction. For now I just leave the current
annotation because, both expect a further move down. The first target is 2450. If it is a
wave 3 that is coming, the first target will be lower to around 2380. Note the negative
divergence (1) higher tops in price and lower tops in the SRSI indicator that announced
the first move down from top [5]. Next there is a convergent move (2) that made us
expect a correction wave B up. And now another convergent move with lower tops or a
hidden divergent move that informs us to expect a continuation of the previous down
move. There is resistance for an up move with static price resistance and resistance of
the PP-Pivot level of the month. Better be prepared for a continuation of the downtrend.
Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart for more
information regarding the longer term view.

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February 24, 2018

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: February 24, 2018.
A week ago I wrote: "As expected price moved up even a bit above the pivot support
S1, here resistance, up to the 100 day average and the middle line of the Bollinger
Bands(R). With lower lows both in the index and the SRSI indicator we have a
convergent move. Basically this means that price is making a correction. If this is the
case we are probably finishing a B-wave and now expecting the C-Wave down. A and C
waves are generally about the same size. If this will be the case here, the index can go
down to 2400 to finish the C-wave. Important: Read the comment given with the
weekly chart! Read my comments here on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more
information regarding the longer term view."
Closing the week a fraction higher. Last week I mentioned: "With lower lows both in
the index and the SRSI indicator we have a convergent move. Basically this means that
price is making a correction. If this is the case we are probably finishing a B-wave and
now expecting the C-Wave down. A and C waves are generally about the same size. If
this will be the case here, the index can go down to 2400 to finish the C-wave" But,
perhaps I overlooked the other possibility meaning, the index is not making a first ABC
correction but, a 5-impulse wave down for a longer term wave A correction. If that is
the case the index now makes the wave 2 correction. Since a wave 2 correction can
retrace up to 100% of wave 1, the index may go further up to the last top. That will be
confusing because you will be thinking that the up move is continuing. If the index
moves further up now, the chance that we are making a correction wave 2 becomes
more lightly. Looking at the Elliott count in the weekly chart, even making a higher top
is not impossible. All rather confusing for the moment. A close follow up is
needed! Read my comments here on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more
Sylvain Vervoort http://stocatat.org/
Posted by Sylvain Vervoort on February 24, 2018 at 06:55 AM in Sylvain Vervoort,

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February 17, 2018

A week ago I wrote: "The first down target around 2700 was broken already on Monday
but, price made an up correction on Tuesday to the same level. The lowest low was
reached on Friday with 2532.7, finding support on the 200 day average. The start of the
move down was announced by a negative divergence, the green arrows, with higher
index prices and a lower SRSI top. Now you can note a lower index bottom with also a
lower SRSI bottom. This is a convergent move. We should expect some upward
correction that already started on Friday up to the 100 average resistance. I assume there
will be some more correction possibly, towards the S1 pivot resistance, after which we
should expect a further move down. Read my comments on the weekly
As expected price moved up even a bit above the pivot support S1, here resistance, up
to the 100 day average and the middle line of the Bollinger Bands(R). With lower lows
both in the index and the SRSI indicator we have a convergent move. Basically this
means that price is making a correction. If this is the case we are probably finishing a B-
wave and now expecting the C-Wave down. A and C waves are generally about the
same size. If this will be the case here, the index can go down to 2400 to finish the C-
wave. Important: Read the comment given with the weekly chart! Read my comments
here on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more information regarding the longer
term view.

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February 10, 2018

A week ago I wrote: "The stochastic RSI made a negative divergence with the index and
started a down reaction with a price gap, followed by a large down candle with another
gap on Friday. The next down target is around 2700, the 50 day price average, the low
side of the volatility band and a price support level. I do expect some pullback when this
level is reached. Be prepared for a possible longer term larger correction! Read my
comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more information regarding the
longer term view."
The first down target around 2700 was broken already on Monday but, price made an
up correction on Tuesday to the same level. The lowest low was reached on Friday with
2532.7, finding support on the 200 day average. The start of the move down was
announced by a negative divergence, the green arrows, with higher index prices and a
lower SRSI top. Now you can note a lower index bottom with also a lower SRSI
bottom. This is a convergent move. We should expect some upward correction that
already started on Friday up to the 100 average resistance. I assume there will be some
more correction possibly, towards the S1 pivot resistance, after which we should expect
a further move down. Read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for
more information regarding the longer term view.

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February 3, 2018
A week ago I wrote: "The index broke the 423.6% Fibonacci target from 2 weeks ago.
Now even the R3 Pivot level of the current Month is broken. However, price is far away
from the lower side of the volatility channel and from all averages. The Stochastic RSI
may be making a negative divergence with the index. Normally this means that a
pullback is not far away. As mentioned with the weekly chart I expect a reaction around
the 3000 level. On the other hand I expect a continuation of the move after a correction.
The longer term Fibonacci target is around 3200. Maybe you should try a long trade
after the expected reaction for a ride to 3200. Read my comments on the weekly
The stochastic RSI made a negative divergence with the index and started a down
reaction with a price gap, followed by a large down candle with another gap on Friday.
The next down target is around 2700, the 50 day price average, the low side of the
volatility band and a price support level. I do expect some pullback when this level is
reached. Be prepared for a possible longer term larger correction! Read my comments
on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more information regarding the longer
term view.

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January 27, 2018

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: Januari 27, 2018.
Two weeks ago I wrote: "Drawing a medium term Fibonacci target, the index is close to
the 2805 target I mentioned last week. Indicators are topping and we are close to this
423.6% Fibonacci target. Short term I expect some pullback, possibly after reaching the
short term Fibonacci target. Long term it looks like the 3000 level is now within reach. I
commented this in the weekly and monthly chart. Read my comments on the weekly
he index broke the 423.6% Fibonacci target from 2 weeks ago. Now even the R3 Pivot
level of the current Month is broken. However, price is far away from the lower side of
the volatility channel and from all averages. The Stochastic RSI may be making a
negative divergence with the index. Normally this means that a pullback is not far away.
As mentioned with the weekly chart I expect a reaction around the 3000 level. On the
other hand I expect a continuation of the move after a correction. The longer term
Fibonacci target is around 3200. Maybe you should try a long trade after the expected
reaction for a ride to 3200. Read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly
chart for more information regarding the longer term view. The short term SVEPRExp
Price Range expert system is green for a long position. Black means a short position and
red is a warning for a possible short.
Sylvain Vervoort http:/stocata.org/
Posted by Sylvain Vervoort on January 27, 2018 at 06:43 AM in Sylvain Vervoort,

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January 13, 2018

Last week I wrote: "The reaction was limited to what we had already the previous week
on Friday. The first week of the year was apparently reserved for celebrating the good
trading year 2017. We are getting more and more gaps that need to be filled. The index
reached the R2 pivot resistance of the current month and is possibly on the way to a
next Fibonacci target at 2805. My best guess is that this 2805 is the top for the coming
weeks. We will most probably get at least a small correction from this level. Read my
longer term view."
Drawing a medium term Fibonacci target, the index is close to the 2805 target I
mentioned last week. Indicators are topping and we are close to this 423.6% Fibonacci
target. Short term I expect some pullback, possibly after reaching the short term
Fibonacci target. Long term it looks like the 3000 level is now within reach. I
commented this in the weekly and monthly chart. Read my comments on the weekly
The short term SVEPRExp Price Range expert system is green for a long position.
Black means a short position and red is a warning for a possible short.

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January 7, 2018
Last week I wrote: "We are two weeks later and the last gap is closed. You can see the
negative divergence between the index with higher tops and the indicators with lower
tops now confirmed with a larger negative candle and a convergent move between the
index and indicators. Technically we must expect a further move down in first instance
to 2660 and next to 2625 closing the next gap in the up trend. At that point we should
expect some pullback. Read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for
more information regarding the longer term view. I wish you all the best for 2018
especially a good health, lot's of fun and good profits with your trading!"
The reaction was limited to what we had already the previous week on Friday. The first
week of the year was apparently reserved for celebrating the good trading year 2017.
We are getting more and more gaps that need to be filled. The index reached the R2
pivot resistance of the current month and is possibly on the way to a next Fibonacci
target at 2805. My best guess is that this 2805 is the top for the coming weeks. We will
most probably get at least a small correction from this level. The short term SVEPRExp
Price Range expert system is green for a long position. Black means a short position and
red is a warning for a possible short.Read my comments on the weekly

Reblog (0)
December 30, 2017

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: December 30, 2017.
Last week I wrote: "The gap is not closed yet. Contrary, price made another higher high
yesterday close to the R1 pivot resistance of December. It looks like a negative
divergence is coming up between the index and the indicators. My best guess is still that
the gap around 2645 will be filled the coming week possibly, making a further
correction down towards 2600. That way there will be a smaller trading range that may
even extend to 2560. That trading range may continue some weeks to some months into
2018. I am repeating, be careful, I believe we are possibly at a longer term top that is
only there because professionals want to keep price at high levels for presenting a good
end-of-the-year report to their customers. Read my comments on the weekly
We are two weeks later and the last gap is closed. You can see the negative divergence
between the index with higher tops and the indicators with lower tops now confirmed
with a larger negative candle and a convergent move between the index and indicators.
Technically we must expect a further move down in first instance to 2660 and next to
2625 closing the next gap in the up trend. At that point we should expect some pullback.
Read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more information
regarding the longer term view. I wish you all the best for 2018 especially a good
health, lot's of fun and good profits with your trading!
Posted by Sylvain Vervoort on December 30, 2017 at 02:49 AM in Sylvain Vervoort,

Reblog (0)
December 16, 2017

Last week I wrote: "We got the expected down reaction in first instance to the PP-Pivot
level of the month at 2624.75. However, followed by a correction move the second part
of the week, back to 2651.5, with a gap on Friday. My best guess is that this gap will be
filled the coming week possibly, making a further correction down towards 2600. That
way there will be a smaller trading range that may extend to 2560. That trading range
may continue some weeks to some months into 2018. I am repeating, be careful, I
believe we are possibly at a longer term top that is only holding because professionals
want to keep price at high levels for presenting a good end-of-the-year report to their
customers. Read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more
The gap is not closed yet. Contrary, price made another higher high yesterday close to
the R1 pivot resistance of December. It looks like a negative divergence is coming up
between the index and the indicators. My best guess is still that the gap around 2645
will be filled the coming week possibly, making a further correction down towards
2600. That way there will be a smaller trading range that may even extend to 2560. That
trading range may continue some weeks to some months into 2018. I am repeating, be
careful, I believe we are possibly at a longer term top that is only there because
professionals want to keep price at high levels for presenting a good end-of-the-year
report to their customers. Read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly

Reblog (0)
December 9, 2017
Last week I wrote: "There was a nice move up to a high at 2660, as suggested on the
weekly chart followed by, a low price correction back to the start of the week on Friday
but, recovering most of it by the end of the day. Since we are at a Fibonacci target both
on the daily and weekly chart, we should expect a pullback possibly closing the gap in
the daily chart the coming couple of weeks. Be careful, I believe we are close to a
longer term top that is only holding because professionals want to keep price at high
levels for presenting a good end-of-the-year report to their customers. Read my
longer term view."
We got the expected down reaction in first instance to the PP-Pivot level of the month at
2624.75. However, followed by a correction move the second part of the week, back to
2651.5, with a gap on Friday. My best guess is that this gap will be filled the coming
week possibly, making a further correction down towards 2600. That way there will be
a smaller trading range that may extend to 2560. That trading range may continue some
weeks to some months into 2018. I am repeating, be careful, I believe we are possibly at
a longer term top that is only holding because professionals want to keep price at high
levels for presenting a good end-of-the-year report to their customers. Read my
longer term view.

Reblog (0)
December 2, 2017
Last week I wrote: "There is a gap on Tuesday, I assume this will be closed the next
couple of weeks. The index reached the R1 pivot resistance of the month and a last
possible Fibonacci target at 2600, exactly the same level as R1. The end of the year
coming close, it is always difficult to make predictions because, the professionals want
to keep price at high levels for presenting a good end-of-the-year report to their
customers. Technically we should expect a correction in first instance to 2580, on the
other hand the next up target is around 2650. I have to repeat what I mentioned last
week: Looking at Elliott wave counts, we are possibly near the end of an impulse wave
5, short, medium and even long term. Be careful, I believe we are close to a longer term
top. Read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more information
regarding the longer term view."
There was a nice move up to a high at 2660, as suggested on the weekly chart followed
by, a low price correction back to the start of the week on Friday but, recovering most
of it by the end of the day. Since we are at a Fibonacci target both on the daily and
weekly chart, we should expect a pullback possibly closing the gap in the daily chart the
coming couple of weeks. Be careful, I believe we are close to a longer term top that is
only holding because professionals want to keep price at high levels for presenting a
good end-of-the-year report to their customers. Read my comments on the weekly
The short term SVEPRExp Price Range expert system is green for a long position.
Black means a short position and red is a warning for a possible short.
HERE and HERE is more information about the SVEPRExp system!

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November 25, 2017

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: November 25, 2017.
Last week I wrote: "Wednesday the index reached the low of the week just past the PP
pivot level of the month. From that point a pullback up was started but, still closing the
week a few points lower. Technically I expect a move down towards the price support at
2544 which is also, close to the S1 pivot support, the low side of the volatility channel
and the 100 day simple moving average. Keep in mind that there is a good chance the
index will remain around the current level until the year-end, closing the year with some
25% profit. Looking at Elliott wave counts, we are possibly near the end of an impulse
wave 5, short, medium and even long term. Be careful, I believe we are close to a longer
term top. Read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more
There is a gap on Tuesday, I assume this will be closed the next couple of weeks. The
index reached the R1 pivot resistance of the month and a last possible Fibonacci target
at 2600, exactly the same level as R1. The end of the year coming close, it is always
difficult to make predictions because, the professionals want to keep price at high levels
for presenting a good end-of-the-year report to their customers. Technically we should
expect a correction in first instance to 2580, on the other hand the next up target is
around 2650. I have to repeat what I mentioned last week: Looking at Elliott wave
counts, we are possibly near the end of an impulse wave 5, short, medium and even long
term. Be careful, I believe we are close to a longer term top. Read my comments on
term view.
Posted by Sylvain Vervoort on November 25, 2017 at 02:25 AM in Sylvain Vervoort,

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November 19, 2017
Last week I wrote: "Closing the week some 5 points lower. There is still a Fibonacci
target at 2622 that most probably will be reached the coming weeks. I believe there is a
good chance the index will remain around the current level until the year-end, closing
the year with some 25% profit. For now I expect a further move up towards 2622, a
Fibonacci target and the R2 pivot resistance of the current month. We may expect some
pullback at that point, before possibly moving up to the next Fibonacci target at 2660.
Price is far away from the averages reaching the upper side of the volatility channel.
Looking at an Elliott wave count, we may be near the end of an impulse wave 5, short,
medium and even long term. BE careful, I believe we are close to a longer term top.
Wednesday the index reached the low of the week just past the PP pivot level of the
month. From that point a pullback up was started but, still closing the week a few points
lower. Technically I expect a move down towards the price support at 2544 which is
also, close to the S1 pivot support, the low side of the volatility channel and the 100 day
simple moving average. Keep in mind that there is a good chance the index will remain
around the current level until the year-end, closing the year with some 25% profit.
Looking at Elliott wave counts, we are possibly near the end of an impulse wave 5,
short, medium and even long term. Be careful, I believe we are close to a longer term
top. Read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more information
regarding the longer term view.

Reblog (0)
November 11, 2017

Last week I wrote: "Closing the week some 6 points higher towards the closest target at
2600. There is one more target not far away at 2660 that most probably will be reached
the coming weeks. I believe there is a good chance the index will remain around the
current level until the year-end, closing the year with some 25% profit. For now I expect
a further move up towards 2600, a Fibonacci target and the R1 pivot resistance of the
current month. We may expect some pullback at that point, before possibly moving up
to the next Fibonacci target at 2660. Price is far away from the averages reaching the
upper side of the volatility channel. Looking at an Elliott wave count, we may be near
the end of an impulse wave 5, short, medium and even long term. Read my comments
term view."
Closing the week some 5 points lower. There is still a Fibonacci target at 2622 that most
probably will be reached the coming weeks. I believe there is a good chance the index
will remain around the current level until the year-end, closing the year with some 25%
profit. For now I expect a further move up towards 2622, a Fibonacci target and the R2
pivot resistance of the current month. We may expect some pullback at that point,
before possibly moving up to the next Fibonacci target at 2660. Price is far away from
the averages reaching the upper side of the volatility channel. Looking at an Elliott
wave count, we may be near the end of an impulse wave 5, short, medium and even
long term. BE careful, I believe we are close to a longer term top. Read my comments
term view.

Reblog (0)
November 4, 2017
Last week I wrote: "The price gap of the previous week is filled within a week. If this is
an exhaustion gap then we have one more reason to believe that a reversal can be
expected the coming weeks. However, I believe there will be first a minimum higher
price toward the last Fibonacci target at 2610. The indicators are still moving with a
negative divergence compared to the index price move. Price is far away from the
averages reaching the upper side of the volatility channel. Looking at an Elliott wave
count, we may be near the end of an impulse wave 5, short, medium and even long
term. Read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more information
Closing the week some 6 points higher towards the closest target at 2600. There is one
more target not far away at 2660 that most probably will be reached the coming weeks.
I believe there is a good chance the index will remain around the current level until the
year-end, closing the year with some 25% profit. For now I expect a further move up
towards 2600, a Fibonacci target and the R1 pivot resistance of the current month. We
may expect some pullback at that point, before possibly moving up to the next
Fibonacci target at 2660. Price is far away from the averages reaching the upper side of
the volatility channel. Looking at an Elliott wave count, we may be near the end of an
impulse wave 5, short, medium and even long term. Read my comments on the weekly

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October 28, 2017

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: October 28, 2017.
Last week I wrote: "Not the expected correction but, a higher high with a larger gap on
Friday. I like to think this is an exhaustion gap. About 50% of the time an exhaustion
gap is filled within a week and an exhaustion gap is the last one in the current up or
downtrend. Keep that in mind if this gap is filled the coming week. The indicators are
still moving with a negative divergence compared to the index price move. Price is far
away from the averages and at the upper side of the volatility channel. Looking at an
Elliott wave count, we may be near the end of an impulse wave 5, short, medium and
even long term. There is an up Fibonacci target at 2612. Read my comments on
term view."
The price gap of the previous week is filled within a week. If this is an exhaustion gap
then we have one more reason to believe that a reversal can be expected the coming
weeks. However, I believe there will be first a minimum higher price toward the last
Fibonacci target at 2610. The indicators are still moving with a negative divergence
compared to the index price move. Price is far away from the averages reaching the
upper side of the volatility channel. Looking at an Elliott wave count, we may be near
the end of an impulse wave 5, short, medium and even long term. Read my comments
term view.
Posted by Sylvain Vervoort on October 28, 2017 at 10:58 AM in Sylvain Vervoort,

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Sylvain Vervoort
October 21, 2017
Last week I wrote: "As expected the index made a small higher price the past week.
You can now see the index moving up while the indicators are moving down, a
divergent negative indication. We should expect a correction the coming week. Price is
far away from the averages and at the upper side of the volatility channel. Looking at an
Elliott wave count, we may be at the end of an impulse wave 5, short, medium and even
long term. And of course, there are the gaps I expect to be filled. Closest down targets
are at 2510, 2480 and 2460. Read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly
Not the expected correction but, a higher high with a larger gap on Friday. I like to think
this is an exhaustion gap. About 50% of the time an exhaustion gap is filled within a
week and an exhaustion gap is the last one in the current up or downtrend. Keep that in
mind if this gap is filled the coming week. The indicators are still moving with a
negative divergence compared to the index price move. Price is far away from the
averages and at the upper side of the volatility channel. Looking at an Elliott wave
count, we may be near the end of an impulse wave 5, short, medium and even long
term. There is an up Fibonacci target at 2612. Read my comments on the weekly
µ

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October 15, 2017

Last week I wrote: "Last week I mentioned: "There is room for higher prices the coming
week. Closest price targets from Fibonacci projections are at 2535 and 2550." Both
targets were reached. I expect a slightly higher price starting the coming week but, the
start of a reversal after that. Both indicators are topping and price is far away from the
averages and touching the upper side of the volatility channel. And of course, there are
the gaps I expect to be filled. Closest down targets are at 2510, 2480 and 2460. Read my
longer term view."
As expected the index made a small higher price the past week. You can now see the
index moving up while the indicators are moving down, a divergent negative indication.
We should expect a correction the coming week. Price is far away from the averages
and at the upper side of the volatility channel. Looking at an Elliott wave count, we may
be at the end of an impulse wave 5, short, medium and even long term. And of course,
there are the gaps I expect to be filled. Closest down targets are at 2510, 2480 and 2460.

Reblog (0)
October 7, 2017
Last week I wrote: "There was no continuation after the down reversal at the end of the
previous week. The past week we first saw a flag price pattern completing on Monday
and Tuesday, breaking out of this pattern on Wednesday finally closing the week higher
on Friday. There is room for higher prices the coming week. Closest price targets from
Fibonacci projections are at 2535 and 2550. Possibly, at that point there will be a
negative divergence between the Stochastic RSI and the indicator. The index will be
closer to the upper side of the volatility band, the upper side of the up moving pitchfork
and farther away from the averages. Finally we still have the gaps I expect to be filled.
There is a good chance the index will go up another number of days but, I do expect a
reversal the coming week(s). First targets are filling the gaps. Read my comments on
term view."
Last week I mentioned: "There is room for higher prices the coming week. Closest price
targets from Fibonacci projections are at 2535 and 2550." Both targets were reached. I
expect a slightly higher price starting the coming week but, the start of a reversal after
that. Both indicators are topping and price is far away from the averages and touching
the upper side of the volatility channel. And of course, there are the gaps I expect to be
filled. Closest down targets are at 2510, 2480 and 2460. Read my comments on
term view.

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October 1, 2017
Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: September 30, 2017.
Last week I wrote: "The index went a few points up Monday till Wednesday but, back
down Thursday and Friday, closing just a few points higher compared to the week
before. The index now reached the 161.8% Fibonacci target projected over the last wave
down of the last correction wave. The candle chart is showing a doji, hanging man and
evening star pattern, all negative signs. The stochastic oscillator is showing a downward
move compared to the upward move in price over the last few days, a negative
divergence. The index is back at the R1 pivot resistance , the 161.8% Fibonacci
resistance, the upper side of the volatility channel, indicators are topping and price is far
away from all averages. Furthermore there are two gaps I expect to be filled. Logically
we should expect a reversal with a further downward move the coming week(s). First
targets are filling the gaps. Read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly
There was no continuation after the down reversal at the end of the previous week. The
past week we first saw a flag price pattern completing on Monday and Tuesday,
breaking out of this pattern on Wednesday finally closing the week higher on Friday.
There is room for higher prices the coming week. Closest price targets from Fibonacci
projections are at 2535 and 2550. Possibly, at that point there will be a negative
divergence between the Stochastic RSI and the indicator. The index will be closer to the
upper side of the volatility band, the upper side of the up moving pitchfork and farther
away from the averages. Finally we still have the gaps I expect to be filled. There is a
good chance the index will go up another number of days but, I do expect a reversal the
coming week(s). First targets are filling the gaps. Read my comments on the weekly

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September 23, 2017

Last week I wrote: "Sorry I could not make comments last week. Two weeks ago I
expected the gap around 2460 to be filled and that was the case. On the other hand I saw
room for a further move up. This happened the past week with a gap and large move on
Monday (9/11) and another gap on Tuesday. Price is now at the R1 pivot resistance, the
161.8% Fibonacci target and the upper side of the volatility channel while, the index is
far away from the averages. Note the negative divergences between price with higher
tops and the lower tops in the stochastic RSI indicator. I expect a pullback for closing
the recent gaps, possibly after some small further up move. Read my comments on
term view."
The index went a few points up Monday till Wednesday but, back down Thursday and
Friday, closing just a few points higher compared to the week before. The index now
reached the 161.8% Fibonacci target projected over the last wave down of the last
correction wave. The candle chart is showing a doji, hanging man and evening star
pattern, all negative signs. The stochastic oscillator is showing a downward move
compared to the upward move in price over the last few days, a negative divergence.
The index is back at the R1 pivot resistance , the 161.8% Fibonacci resistance, the upper
side of the volatility channel, indicators are topping and price is far away from all
averages. Furthermore there are two gaps I expect to be filled. Logically we should
expect a reversal with a further downward move the coming week(s). First targets are
filling the gaps. Read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more
Posted by Sylvain Vervoort on September 23, 2017 at 07:29 AM in Sylvain Vervoort,

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September 16, 2017

Last week I wrote: "Predicting the coming week with the daily chart looks a bit
contradictory compared to the weekly chart. Here there is room for a limited further up
move. On the other hand there is a nearby gap to fill around 2460. Before that happens
there may be another higher high. It may take more than a week before we see another
start of a down correction. Read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly
Sorry I could not make comments last week. Two weeks ago I expected the gap around
2460 to be filled and that was the case. On the other hand I saw room for a further move
up. This happened the past week with a gap and large move on Monday (9/11) and
another gap on Tuesday. Price is now at the R1 pivot resistance, the 161.8% Fibonacci
target and the upper side of the volatility channel while, the index is far away from the
averages. Note the negative divergences between price with higher tops and the lower
tops in the stochastic RSI indicator. I expect a pullback for closing the recent gaps,
possibly after some small further up move. Read my comments on the weekly

Reblog (0)
September 3, 2017
Last week I wrote: "As expected last week, price went a fraction lower on Monday,
touching the 100-day simple moving average dynamic support. Tuesday the up retrace
started with a price gap and went up to a 50% pullback, a price resistance and the PP
pivot level of the month. Most probably the index made the top of the correction and
resumes the down move. The next down target is the S2 pivot support at around 2380. I
assume this will take a couple of weeks. Read my comments on the weekly
Predicting the coming week with the daily chart looks a bit contradictory compared to
the weekly chart. Here there is room for a limited further up move. On the other hand
there is a nearby gap to fill around 2460. Before that happens there may be another
higher high. It may take more than a week before we see another start of a down
correction. Read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more
information regarding the longer term view. Yours for free: Elliott Wave International, a
pioneer in technical market forecasting since 1979, has just released a free report from
its team of market veterans, "5 Markets Ready to Move Before Year-End."

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August 26, 2017

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: August 26, 2017.
Last week I wrote: "I expected the price gap to be filled within 2 weeks and, it happened
already at the end of the past week. We are also very close to the first down target
around 2400. Possibly price will go down a fraction lower before there will be a price
pullback. There is support from the S1 pivot support of the month, the median line of
the up moving pitchfork and the 100-day simple moving average so, I assume we will
see some pullback already the coming week. Read my comments on the weekly
As expected last week, price went a fraction lower on Monday, touching the 100-day
simple moving average dynamic support. Tuesday the up retrace started with a price gap
and went up to a 50% pullback, a price resistance and the PP pivot level of the month.
Most probably the index made the top of the correction and resumes the down move.
The next down target is the S2 pivot support at around 2380. I assume this will take a
couple of weeks. Read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more
Posted by Sylvain Vervoort on August 26, 2017 at 07:31 AM in Sylvain Vervoort,

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August 20, 2017

Last week I wrote: "The index came very close to he gap but, is not yet filled yet. I
believe the gap will be filled in the coming two weeks with a move further down to the
median line of the up moving pitchfork, the 100-day simple moving average and the
low side of the Bollinger band. There is a negative divergence with higher tops in the
index and lower tops in the indicators. The next down target is around 2400. Read my
longer term view."
I expected the price gap to be filled within 2 weeks and, it happened already at the end
of the past week. We are also very close to the first down target around 2400. Possibly
price will go down a fraction lower before there will be a price pullback. There is
support from the S1 pivot support of the month, the median line of the up moving
pitchfork and the 100-day simple moving average so, I assume we will see some
pullback already the coming week. Read my comments on the weekly

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August 12, 2017

Last week I wrote: "Not much change, Holidays? I expect the gap at the beginning of
the last move up to be filled. We still have an exceptional last engulfing bearish pattern
at the top. If this is confirmed the coming week(s) it may be the start of a downward
reaction phase. It looks like we have a short term negative divergence with, higher tops
in the index and lower tops in the indicators. On the other hand there still is a Fibonacci
target at 2534 that we should not exclude because, we see a pennant price pattern,
basically a continuation pattern. The first down target is 2430 closing the gap at the
beginning of the last up move. Read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly
The index came very close to he gap but, is not yet filled yet. I believe the gap will be
filled in the coming two weeks with a move further down to the median line of the up
moving pitchfork, the 100-day simple moving average and the low side of the Bollinger
band. There is a negative divergence with higher tops in the index and lower tops in the
indicators. The next down target is around 2400. Read my comments on the weekly

Reblog (0)
July 29, 2017

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: July 29, 2017.
Last week I wrote: "As expected the index made some more up move the past week. I
am convinced that at least a short term reaction is coming up the coming week(s). I
expect the gap at the beginning of the last move up to be filled. There is an evening star
reversal pattern visible. I assume this will be confirmed the coming week. First down
targets are at 2430 and 2400. These targets are given by pivot levels of the current
Month, the low side of the longer term up moving pitchfork channel and the 50- and
100-day moving average furthermore, indicators are topping. Read my comments on
term view."
Last week I mentioned: "I expect the gap at the beginning of the last move up to be
filled." The last gaps were filled with a low price on Thursday while, making a new
higher high the same day. We now have an exceptional last engulfing bearish pattern at
the top. If this is confirmed the coming week it may be the start of a downward reaction
phase. It looks like we have a short term negative divergence with, higher tops in the
index and lower tops in the indicators. On the other hand there is a Fibonacci target at
2534 that we should not exclude. The first down target is 2430 closing the gap at the
beginning of the last up move. Perhaps Monday it will already be clear which way we
are going the coming week. Read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly
Posted by Sylvain Vervoort on July 29, 2017 at 10:34 AM in Sylvain Vervoort,

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July 22, 2017

Last week I wrote: "Monday there was a reaction up to 2440 but, Thursday the index
went down once more to the previous low around 2405. Friday finally another up
correction closed the week around the same level as the week before. Possibly the index
will correct up a bit more before resuming the down move. The first target down is at
2390 once the support at 2405 is broken. Keep in mind that the Holiday season started
so, price moves may be limited the coming weeks. Please read my comments on
term view."
The up correction went farther then I expected, creating a new long term higher high.
There is a gap on Wednesday that I would expect to be closed soon. Furthermore, there
is a good chance that the index and indicators will show a negative divergence starting
the expected correction. The first down target is filling the gap. Intra day the last wave
up does not look completed so, there may be some more up move the coming week.

Reblog (0)
July 15, 2017

Last week I wrote: "Monday there was a reaction up to 2440 but, Thursday the index
went down once more to the previous low around 2405. Friday finally another up
correction closed the week around the same level as the week before. Possibly the index
will correct up a bit more before resuming the down move. The first target down is at
2390 once the support at 2405 is broken. Keep in mind that the Holiday season started
so, price moves may be limited the coming weeks. Please read my comments on
term view."
The up correction went farther then I expected, creating a new long term higher high.
There is a gap on Wednesday that I would expect to be closed soon. Furthermore, there
is a good chance that the index and indicators will show a negative divergence starting
the expected correction. The first down target is filling the gap. Intra day the last wave
up does not look completed so, there may be some more up move the coming week.

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July 9, 2017
Last week I wrote: "The past week shows rather high volatility. Thursday the index
reached our expected first down target around 2400. At this level there is support from
previous price levels, the 50-day moving average and the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace. That
moved the index back up closing the week at 2423. I assume there will be some more
pullback moving up the indicators towards their 50 levels but, I expect a further move
down the coming two weeks in first instance to 2380. Please read my comments on
term view."
Monday there was a reaction up to 2440 but, Thursday the index went down once more
to the previous low around 2405. Friday finally another up correction closed the week
around the same level as the week before. Possibly the index will correct up a bit more
before resuming the down move. The first target down is at 2390 once the support at
2405 is broken. Keep in mind that the Holiday season started so, price moves may be
limited the coming weeks. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly
Sylvain vervoort http://stocata.org/

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July 1, 2017
Last week I wrote: "Monday started with a gap up closing the day with a new higher
high. The gap was closed on Wednesday and some recovery on Friday closed the week
a fraction higher. I can only repeat: the index reached the nearest 161.8% Fibonacci
target coming once more close to the upper side of the up moving pitchfork. There is a
negative divergence between the index and both the Stochastic RSI and the price
stochastic. We should expect some pullback the coming weeks. This correction may just
be a horizontal move. But I think a correction towards 2400 and the 50-day average
seems to be the minimum. My advice is to swing trade short term only. Please read my
longer term view."
The past week shows rather high volatility. Thursday the index reached our expected
first down target around 2400. At this level there is support from previous price levels,
the 50-day moving average and the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace. That moved the index
back up closing the week at 2423. I assume there will be some more pullback moving
up the indicators towards their 50 levels but, I expect a further move down the coming
two weeks in first instance to 2380. Please read my comments on the weekly

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June 24, 2017

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: June 24, 2017.
Last week I wrote: "Technically we can see the index far away from all averages. The
index reached the nearest 161.8% Fibonacci target coming close to the upper side of the
up moving pitchfork. We should expect some pullback the coming weeks. The
correction now may just be a horizontal move. But I think a correction towards 2400
and the 50-day average seems to be the minimum. My advice remains to swing trade
short term. Many things are happening in the world these days that may change
everything from one day to the other. Do not put everything at risk! Please read my
longer term view."
Monday started with a gap up closing the day with a new higher high. The gap was
closed on Wednesday and some recovery on Friday closed the week a fraction higher. I
can only repeat: the index reached the nearest 161.8% Fibonacci target coming once
more close to the upper side of the up moving pitchfork. There is a negative divergence
between the index and both the Stochastic RSI and the price stochastic. We should
expect some pullback the coming weeks. This correction may just be a horizontal move.
But I think a correction towards 2400 and the 50-day average seems to be the minimum.
My advice is to swing trade short term only. Please read my comments on the weekly
Posted by Sylvain Vervoort on June 24, 2017 at 02:13 AM in Sylvain Vervoort,

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June 18, 2017

Last week I wrote: "Last week I mentioned: "Technically we can see the index far away
from all averages. The index reaches the nearest 161.8% Fibonacci target coming close
to the upper side of the up moving pitchfork. We may expect some pullback the coming
week." We got a pullback towards 2415 and closed at 2431. For the coming week I
expect a further reaction down in first instance towards 2400 and medium term possibly
2200. My advice remains to swing trade short term. Many things are happening in the
world these days that may change everything from one day to the other. Do not put
everything at risk! Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for
more information regarding the longer term view."
Technically we can see the index far away from all averages. The index reached the
nearest 161.8% Fibonacci target coming close to the upper side of the up moving
pitchfork. We should expect some pullback the coming weeks. The correction now may
just be a horizontal move. But I think a correction towards 2400 and the 50-day average
seems to be the minimum. My advice remains to swing trade short term. Many things
are happening in the world these days that may change everything from one day to the
other. Do not put everything at risk! Please read my comments on the weekly chart and
monthly chart for more information regarding the longer term view.

Reblog (0)
June 10, 2017

Last week I wrote: "June 1 and 2 we are reaching new tops. Long term the index is still
in an up move nicely following the median line of the long term pitchfork. Still I advice
to be careful, the market is I believe not stable. With the new US president anything
may change the market from one day to the other. Try to swing trade the shorter term.
Technically we can see the index far away from all averages. The index reaches the
nearest 161.8% Fibonacci target coming close to the upper side of the up moving
pitchfork. We may expect some pullback the coming week. I have installed a new PC
and I am in trouble making everything to work again. My charts are not updated with
my indicators. I will try to solve it the coming week. Please read my comments on the
weekly chart and monthly chart for more information regarding the longer term view."
Last week I mentioned: "Technically we can see the index far away from all averages.
The index reaches the nearest 161.8% Fibonacci target coming close to the upper side of
the up moving pitchfork. We may expect some pullback the coming week." We got a
pullback towards 2415 and closed at 2431. For the coming week I expect a further
reaction down in first instance towards 2400 and medium term possibly 2200. My
advice remains to swing trade short term. Many things are happening in the world these
days that may change everything from one day to the other. Do not put everything at
risk! Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more

Reblog (0)
June 4, 2017
Last week I wrote: "Last week I mentioned: "The target for the coming week is closing
the gap around 2380, possibly down to the PP pivot of the current month and the 50-day
simple moving average." Tuesday the market closed a fraction higher, creating a new
top. However, Wednesday the gap was closed and the index even went down a bit
further closing one more gap in this daily chart reaching the low side of the volatility
channel. From that point there was a pullback to the upper side. The larger move down
on Wednesday created another gap in the daily chart. Possibly this one will be closed
before the downward move continues down to the first target around 2325. Please read
my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more information regarding
the longer term view."
June 1 and 2 we are reaching new tops. Long term the index is still in an up move nicely
following the median line of the long term pitchfork. Still I advice to be careful, the
market is I believe not stable. With the new US president anything may change the
market from one day to the other. Try to swing trade the shorter term. Technically we
can see the index far away from all averages. The index reaches the nearest 161.8%
Fibonacci target coming close to the upper side of the up moving pitchfork. We may
expect some pullback the coming week. I have installed a new PC and I am in trouble
making everything to work again. My charts are not updated with my indicators. I will
try to solve it the coming week. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and
monthly chart for more information regarding the longer term view.

Reblog (0)
May 28, 2017

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: May 27, 2017.
Last week I wrote: "Last week I mentioned: "The target for the coming week is closing
the gap around 2380, possibly down to the PP pivot of the current month and the 50-day
simple moving average." Tuesday the market closed a fraction higher, creating a new
top. However, Wednesday the gap was closed and the index even went down a bit
further closing one more gap in this daily chart reaching the low side of the volatility
channel. From that point there was a pullback to the upper side. The larger move down
on Wednesday created another gap in the daily chart. Possibly this one will be closed
before the downward move continues down to the first target around 2325. Please read
my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more information regarding
Last week I mentioned: "The larger move down on Wednesday created another gap in
the daily chart. Possibly this one will be closed before the downward move continues
down to the first target around 2325." Not only this gap was closed the past week
furthermore, the index made a new long term high, reaching the R1 pivot resistance of
the Month. I now expect price to rise still a bit higher but on the other hand, I still am
convinced we are close to a correction. It looks like the index builds a negative
divergence with higher tops in price and lower tops in the Stochastic RSI indicator.
Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more information
Posted by Sylvain Vervoort on May 28, 2017 at 01:43 AM in Sylvain Vervoort,

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Sylvain Vervoort
May 21, 2017
Last week I wrote: "Le pen did not make it as the new President of France. I mentioned
last week: "Technically I would expect that gaps will be filled with a downward move
the coming week(s). The new downward target is now at 2317, close to the last bottom,
the low side of the volatility band and the 50% retrace." It looks like we started this
expected move the past week. The target for the coming week is closing the gap around
2380, possibly down to the PP pivot of the current month and the 50-day simple moving
average. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more
Last week I mentioned: "The target for the coming week is closing the gap around 2380,
possibly down to the PP pivot of the current month and the 50-day simple moving
average." Tuesday the market closed a fraction higher, creating a new top. However,
Wednesday the gap was closed and the index even went down a bit further closing one
more gap in this daily chart reaching the low side of the volatility channel. From that
point there was a pullback to the upper side. The larger move down on Wednesday
created another gap in the daily chart. Possibly this one will be closed before the
downward move continues down to the first target around 2325. Please read my
longer term view.

Reblog (0)
May 14, 2017

Last week I wrote: "Last week I wrote: " The up move the past week was clearly a
reaction to the result of the first round French Presidential elections. I advice to close or
cover long positions because, Marine Le pen winning unexpectedly the election next
week Sunday, may send a big shock through the markets! Worse than the Brexit!" Now
almost everybody is convinced that Le Pen cannot win the French presidential elections
tomorrow. It looks like the big black cloud over the markets is gone. Nevertheless I
hope you are out of the market for the moment because, the shock will be even more
devastating if the unexpected happens. Technically I would expect that gaps will be
filled with a downward move the coming week(s). The new downward target is now at
2317, close to the last bottom, the low side of the volatility band and the 50% retrace.
Who knows, the direction of the normal technical move expected may be a sign what to
expect May 8! Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for
more information regarding the longer term view."
Le pen did not make it as the new President of France. I mentioned last week:
"Technically I would expect that gaps will be filled with a downward move the coming
week(s). The new downward target is now at 2317, close to the last bottom, the low side
of the volatility band and the 50% retrace." It looks like we started this expected move
the past week. The target for the coming week is closing the gap around 2380, possibly
down to the PP pivot of the current month and the 50-day simple moving average.

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May 6, 2017
Last week I wrote: "After the first round French presidential elections it looks like most
people believe Marine Le Pen will not win the second round to become the new French
president. But remember few believed that the English would vote for a Brexit. The up
move the past week was clearly a reaction to the result of the first round French
Presidential elections. I advice to close or cover long positions because, Marine Le pen
winning unexpectedly the election next week Sunday, may send a big shock through the
markets! Worse than the Brexit! Business will not be as usual until after this election. It
looks like it has not much sense to try to predict how the markets will look May 8, 2017
this moment in time. Pure technically I would expect that gaps will be filled with a
downward move the coming week(s). The new downward target is now at 2317, close
to the last bottom, the low side of the volatility band and the 50% retrace. Who knows,
the direction of the normal technical move expected may be a sign what to expect May
8! Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more
Last week I mentioned: "The up move the past week was clearly a reaction to the result
of the first round French Presidential elections. I advice to close or cover long positions
because, Marine Le pen winning unexpectedly the election next week Sunday, may send
a big shock through the markets! Worse than the Brexit!" Now almost everybody is
convinced that Le Pen cannot win the French presidential elections tomorrow. It looks
like the big black cloud over the markets is gone. Nevertheless I hope you are out of the
market for the moment because, the shock will be even more devastating if the
unexpected happens. Technically I would expect that gaps will be filled with a
downward move the coming week(s). The new downward target is now at 2317, close
to the last bottom, the low side of the volatility band and the 50% retrace. Who knows,
the direction of the normal technical move expected may be a sign what to expect May
8! Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more

Reblog (0)
April 29, 2017

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: April 29, 2017.
Last week I wrote: "It looks like we are completing a convergent move with lower index
tops and a lower Stochastic RSI top. This means that the pullback of the past week is
rather a correction and that the down move will continue now. The index reached the
resistance of the PP pivot level of the month, the 50-day moving average resistance and
previous price support and resistance. Ready to turn down continuing the down move.
The first target remains as mentioned already a couple of weeks ago 2300. This is below
the last low with the size of the first leg down from the top (red arrow), the 61.8%
Fibonacci retrace, the low side of the volatility band and the 100-day moving average.
After the first round French presidential elections it looks like most people believe
Marine Le Pen will not win the second round to become the new French president. But
remember few believed that the English would vote for a Brexit. The up move the past
week was clearly a reaction to the result of the first round French Presidential elections.
I advice to close or cover long positions because, Marine Le pen winning unexpectedly
the election next week Sunday, may send a big shock through the markets! Worse than
the Brexit! Business will not be as usual until after this election. It looks like it has not
much sense to try to predict how the markets will look May 8, 2017 this moment in
time. Pure technically I would expect that gaps will be filled with a downward move the
coming week(s). The new downward target is now at 2317, close to the last bottom, the
low side of the volatility band and the 50% retrace. Who knows, the direction of the
normal technical move expected may be a sign what to expect May 8! Please read my
longer term view.
Posted by Sylvain Vervoort on April 29, 2017 at 07:22 AM in Sylvain Vervoort,

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April 23, 2017

Last week I wrote: "In my last week comment I wrote: "Now we see a divergent move
with lower tops in the index and higher tops in the Stochastic RSI. This points in the
direction of a further down move below the previous low. The second zigzag down
target for the coming couple of weeks is around 2300. This is the size of the first zigzag
down from the top of the past week (the red arrow line down) and the 61.8% Fibonacci
retrace of the last wave up." The further down move is confirmed, now reaching a low
of 2328.95. The index reaches support from the previous low price, the S1 pivot support
of the month and the 50% retrace level over the last up wave. Meaning we should
expect some pullback. This will create the second smaller leg of the larger double
zigzag down. The target remains as mentioned last week 2300. I assume it will take two
more weeks to get there. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly
It looks like we are completing a convergent move with lower index tops and a lower
Stochastic RSI top. This means that the pullback of the past week is rather a correction
and that the down move will continue now. The index reached the resistance of the PP
pivot level of the month, the 50-day moving average resistance and previous price
support and resistance. Ready to turn down continuing the down move. The first target
remains as mentioned already a couple of weeks ago 2300. This is below the last low
with the size of the first leg down from the top (red arrow), the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace,
the low side of the volatility band and the 100-day moving average. Please read my
longer term view.

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April 15, 2017

Last week I wrote: "Most probably the intermediate up moving correction wave after
the first zigzag has finished on Wednesday and the second zigzag down of the double
down zigzag has started. Basically we should see a confirmation at the beginning of the
week. The first zigzag made a convergent move with lower index prices and lower tops
in the Stochastic RSI. So, I expected the up move after the first zigzag to be a correction
wave only. Now we see a divergent move with lower tops in the index and higher tops
in the Stochastic RSI. This points in the direction of a further down move below the
previous low. The second zigzag down target for the coming couple of weeks is around
2300. This is the size of the first zigzag down from the top of the past week (the red
arrow line down) and the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the last wave up. Please read my
longer term view."
In my last week comment I wrote: "Now we see a divergent move with lower tops in the
index and higher tops in the Stochastic RSI. This points in the direction of a further
down move below the previous low. The second zigzag down target for the coming
couple of weeks is around 2300. This is the size of the first zigzag down from the top of
the past week (the red arrow line down) and the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the last
wave up." The further down move is confirmed, now reaching a low of 2328.95. The
index reaches support from the previous low price, the S1 pivot support of the month
and the 50% retrace level over the last up wave. Meaning we should expect some
pullback. This will create the second smaller leg of the larger double zigzag down. The
target remains as mentioned last week 2300. I assume it will take two more weeks to get
there. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more

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April 8, 2017
Last week I wrote: "Last week I mentioned: "I expect a pullback to the upper side of the
BBS band before the start of a second zigzag correction down." Monday started with a
move down to the low side of the volatility band and the 50% retrace of the of the last
wave up. Ending the week as expected against the resistance of the BBS band. This is a
50% pullback of the downward zigzag. There is now a fair chance that the index starts a
second zigzag down. The down target for this is the 100 day average and price support
around 2290.However keep in mind that this scenario becomes doubtful if the index
moves above 2375. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly
Most probably the intermediate up moving correction wave after the first zigzag has
finished on Wednesday and the second zigzag down of the double down zigzag has
started. Basically we should see a confirmation at the beginning of the week. The first
zigzag made a convergent move with lower index prices and lower tops in the
Stochastic RSI. So, I expected the up move after the first zigzag to be a correction wave
only. Now we see a divergent move with lower tops in the index and higher tops in the
Stochastic RSI. This points in the direction of a further down move below the previous
low. The second zigzag down target for the coming couple of weeks is around 2300.
This is the size of the first zigzag down from the top of the past week (the red arrow line
down) and the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the last wave up. Please read my comments
term view.

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April 1, 2017
Last week I wrote: "As I expected with my last week comment, a down move, most
probably ending a first downward zigzag correction pattern reaching the low side of the
BBS band and support of the 38.2% Fibonacci retrace and the PP pivot level of the
current month. Next week I expect a pullback to the upper side of the BBS band before
the start of a second zigzag correction down. The next down target will be the 61.8%
Fibonacci retrace around 2300. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and
monthly chart for more comments regarding the longer term view."
Last week I mentioned: "I expect a pullback to the upper side of the BBS band before
the start of a second zigzag correction down." Monday started with a move down to the
low side of the volatility band and the 50% retrace of the of the last wave up. Ending the
week as expected against the resistance of the BBS band. This is a 50% pullback of the
downward zigzag. There is now a fair chance that the index starts a second zigzag
down. The down target for this is the 100 day average and price support around
2290.However keep in mind that this scenario becomes doubtful if the index moves
above 2375. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more

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March 26, 2017

Last week I wrote: "As expected a further short term up reaction to the upper side of the
BBS band. This is probably the end of this reaction and we may expect a further down
move the coming week(s). The move down has a number of targets; the low side of the
BBS band and at the same level previous price support, the PP pivot level of the month,
and also the 38.2% Fibonacci retrace over the last wave up. At that point we can expect
another correction before moving down to the next target, the 50% retrace and at the
same level the low side of the volatility band and the 50-day average. Please read my
comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more comments regarding the
longer term view."
As I expected with my last week comment, a move down move, most probably ending a
first downward zigzag corrrection pattern reaching the low side of the BBS band and
support of the 38.2% Fibonacci retrace and the PP pivot level of the current month.
Next week I expect a pullback to the upper side of the BBS band before the start of a
second zigzag correction down. The next down target will be the 61.8% Fibonacci
retrace around 2300. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly
chart for more comments regarding the longer term view.

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March 18, 2017

Last week I wrote: "It was some time ago that we closed a week with a lower index. The
bearish harami pattern at the top is now confirmed with a move down, reaching the low
side of the BBS band, creating a small up reaction already. I expect there will be some
more up reaction but, I expect a further down move after that. On the other hand I still
cannot exclude a new higher top. The hidden divergence between the index with higher
bottoms and the indicators with lower bottoms, confirm a correction, but may also push
price above the last top. For the coming week(s) I expect rather a continuation of the
correction move towards the PP pivot level of the month. Please read my comments on
the weekly chart and monthly chart for more comments regarding the longer
term view."
As expected a further short term up reaction to the upper side of the BBS band. This is
probably the end of this reaction and we may expect a further down move the coming
week(s). The move down has a number of targets; the low side of the BBS band and at
the same level previous price support, the PP pivot level of the month, and also the
38.2% Fibonacci retrace over the last wave up. At that point we can expect another
correction before moving down to the next target, the 50% retrace and at the same level
the low side of the volatility band and the 50-day average. Please read my comments on
the weekly chart and monthly chart for more comments regarding the longer term view.

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March 11, 2017

Last week I wrote: "Closing the week higher with a gap on Wednesday but, starting a
reaction on Thursday after reaching a 161.8% Fibonacci target and, the resistance of the
R1 pivot of the current month. Price is still at the upper side of the volatility channel
and the BBS band. The indicators turned down. Price is far away from the averages. I
expect the gap to be closed the coming week and possibly a further reaction down
towards the PP pivot of the month. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and
monthly chart for more comments regarding the longer term view."
It was some time ago that we closed a week with a lower index. The bearish harami
pattern at the top is now confirmed with a move down, reaching the low side of the BBS
band, creating a small up reaction already. I expect there will be some more up reaction
but, I expect a further down move after that. On the other hand I still cannot exclude a
new higher top. The hidden divergence between the index with higher bottoms and the
indicators with lower bottoms, confirm a correction, but may also push price above the
last top. For the coming week(s) I expect rather a continuation of the correction move
towards the PP pivot level of the month. Please read my comments on the weekly chart
and monthly chart for more comments regarding the longer term view.

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March 5, 2017
Last week I wrote: "As expected, more or less some 15 points up move the past week. A
longer term Fibonacci projection now reaches exactly the 261.8% target. With the
convergent move between the index and the stochastic RSI, we must expect in the first
place a (smaller) correction related to the last wave up. This reaction will be in the order
of 60 index points. The index is now at the upper side of the pitchfork channel and the
stochastic RSI is topping. The index is also far away from the averages. Possibly the
reaction starts the coming week. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and
monthly chart for more comments and the longer term view."
Closing the week higher with a gap on Wednesday but, starting a reaction on Thursday
after reaching a 161.8% Fibonacci target and, the resistance of the R1 pivot of the
current month. Price is still at the upper side of the volatility channel and the BBS band.
The indicators turned down. Price is far away from the averages. I expect the gap to be
closed the coming week and possibly a further reaction down towards the PP pivot of
the month. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more
comments regarding the longer term view.

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February 25, 2017

Last week I wrote: "A bit as expected, closing the week higher, reaching the last current
Fibonacci target and the upper side of the up moving pitchfork. As I mentioned last
week, we lost the negative divergence and we now have a convergent move between the
SRSI indicator and the index. Basically this means we should now expect a short term
reaction for the last wave up and not yet a longer term reaction. I estimate that a reaction
of some 60 points can be expected, maybe after a further small move up. Please read my
comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more comments and the longer
term view."
As expected, more or less some 15 points up move the past week. A longer term
Fibonacci projection now reaches exactly the 261.8% target. With the convergent move
between the index and the stochastic RSI, we must expect in the first place a (smaller)
correction related to the last wave up. This reaction will be in the order of 60 index
points. The index is now at the upper side of the pitchfork channel and the stochastic
RSI is topping. The index is also far away from the averages. Possibly the reaction starts
the coming week. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for
more comments and the longer term view.

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February 19, 2017

Last week I wrote: "Closing the week some one percent higher. If the index turns down
now, we have another negative divergence between the index with higher tops and the
Stochastic RSI indicator with lower tops. On the other hand there seems to be room for
at least another 20 points up move. If that happens the negative divergence will
disappear. I see different Fibonacci targets, some point to the current level and some go
about 20 points higher. It looks like we have to follow up, waiting for a long term
reversal. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more
comments and the longer term view."
A bit as expected, closing the week higher, reaching the last current Fibonacci target
and the upper side of the up moving pitchfork. As I mentioned last week, we lost the
negative divergence and we now have a convergent move between the SRSI indicator
and the index. Basically this means we should now expect a short term reaction for the
last wave up and not yet a longer term reaction. I estimate that a reaction of some 60
points can be expected, maybe after a further small move up. Please read my comments
on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more comments and the longer term view.

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February 11, 2017

Last week I wrote: "There was a gap down on Monday and a gap up on Friday. The
result, the week is closing just a fraction higher. Price is at the top of the BBS band and
reaches a Fibonacci target. Additionally we should expect resistance from the R1 pivot
of the month. What to expect next week? Looking at the monthly and weekly chart I
would say probably the start of the move down however, on this daily chart this is not
very clear. We have to follow up. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and
monthly chart for a longer term view."
Closing the week some one percent higher. If the index turns down now, we have
another negative divergence between the index with higher tops and the Stochastic RSI
indicator with lower tops. On the other hand there seems to be room for at least another
20 points up move. If that happens the negative divergence will disappear. I see
different Fibonacci targets, some point to the current level and some go about 20 points
higher. It looks like we have to follow up, waiting for a long term reversal. Please read
my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more comments and the
longer term view.

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February 5, 2017
Last week I wrote: "Wednesday there was a gap up breaking the resistance of the R1
pivot level of the month, creating another higher high. I keep believing we are at a long
term top. Price is near the top of the volatility channel. The last tops and bottoms are a
convergent move between the index and the indicators. This is mostly the case when
you are looking at a correction move, which is not the case here, or is it perhaps that
exaggerated? I expect a closure of the gap the coming week. Price is far away from all
the averages. You should read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for
There was a gap down on Monday and a gap up on Friday. The result, the week is
closing just a fraction higher. Price is at the top of the BBS band and reaches a
Fibonacci target. Additionally we should expect resistance from the R1 pivot of the
month. What to expect next week? Looking at the monthly and weekly chart I would
say probably the start of the move down however, on this daily chart this is not very
clear. We have to follow up. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly
chart for a longer term view.

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January 28, 2017

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: January 28, 2017.
Last week I wrote: "We got a nice copy of the week before, be it with one less trading
day. Very small moves and again a slightly lower closing of the week. The index
remains at the Fibonacci target, trying to get past the R1 pivot of the month. There is no
clear sign where the index is going to be next week. My best guess is that we are at a
long term top, even if the index would close a bit higher, long term we should expect at
least a larger correction. I prefer to be short, be it with a small stop just above the R1
pivot resistance. You should read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly
chart for the longer term view."
Wednesday there was a gap up breaking the resistance of the R1 pivot level of the
month, creating another higher high. I keep believing we are at a long term top. Price is
near the top of the volatility channel. The last tops and bottoms are a convergent move
between the index and the indicators. This is mostly the case when you are looking at a
correction move, which is not the case here, or is it perhaps that exaggerated? I expect a
closure of the gap the coming week. Price is far away from all the averages. You should
read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for the longer term view.

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January 22, 2017

Last week I wrote: "Very limited moves the past week and closing only a few points
lower. The index remains at the Fibonacci target, fighting the resistance of the R1 pivot
of the month. The index is also at the upper side of the BBS band and the volatility
channel. There may be a double top, but it has to be confirmed. It looks like there is a
negative divergence coming up with a higher index top and a lower indicator top. We
are more or less at the same point as last week. I am waiting for a first correction toward
the 2200 level. You should read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly
We got a nice copy of the week before, be it with one less trading day. Very small
moves and again a slightly lower closing of the week. The index remains at the
Fibonacci target, trying to get past the R1 pivot of the month. There is no clear sign
where the index is going to be next week. My best guess is that we are at a long term
top, even if the index would close a bit higher, long term we should expect at least a
larger correction. I prefer to be short, be it with a small stop just above the R1 pivot
resistance. You should read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for
the longer term view.

Reblog (0)
January 15, 2017

Last week I wrote: "A new higher top, to celebrate the start of 2017? On this daily chart
the index reaches the R1 pivot resistance for the Month of January. A bull-trap or a
further continuation of the up move? I still expect a down reaction, only hard to see if it
will happen the coming week. It looks like the index and the SRSI indicator will form a
negative divergence, probably the coming week. But again, no guarantee! My best
guess is a move down toward 2200 the coming weeks. However, if the index is not
turning down the coming week, be prepared for a further move up. You should read my
comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for the longer term view."
Very limited moves the past week and closing only a few points lower. The index
remains at the Fibonacci target, fighting the resistance of the R1 pivot of the month. The
index is also at the upper side of the BBS band and the volatility channel. There may be
a double top, but it has to be confirmed. It looks like there is a negative divergence
coming up with a higher index top and a lower indicator top. We are more or less at the
same point as last week. I am waiting for a first correction toward the 2200 level. You
should read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for the longer
term view.

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January 7, 2017
Last week I wrote: "The last week of 2016 started a reaction down, most probably
confirming the doji reversal signal in the weekly chart. The index is falling back to the
median line of the up moving pitchfork from the top of the volatility channel. The
indicators are moving down. I expect there will be a further down move the coming
weeks. First target is around 2200, a price support level, the low side of the volatility
channel and back to the averages. You should read my comments on the weekly chart
and monthly chart for the longer term view."
A new higher top, to celebrate the start of 2017? On this daily chart the index reaches
the R1 pivot resistance for the Month of January. A bull-trap or a further continuation of
the up move? I still expect a down reaction, only hard to see if it will happen the coming
week. It looks like the index and the SRSI indicator will form a negative divergence,
probably the coming week. But again, no guarantee! My best guess is a move down
toward 2200 the coming weeks. However, if the index is not turning down the coming
week, be prepared for a further move up. You should read my comments on the weekly
chart and monthly chart for the longer term view.

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Sylvain Vervoort
January 1, 2017
Two weeks ago I wrote: "Last week I wrote: "The next closest target for the coming
week is a Fibonacci projection around 2272." There was a very small reaction on
Monday but, Tuesday the index reached the target at 2272. Once this point was reached,
a reaction started in first instance to the support of the R1 pivot level of the month.
Indicators are turning down and there is a negative divergence between the index
and the stochastic RSI. With the doji now in the weekly chart we have one more
indication that a down reversal may be started. We have to wait for a confirmation in
the weekly chart. First down target is around 2200. Keep in mind that we are only 2
weeks away from the end of 2016. Small market volume may have a large influence on
the index. You should read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for
The last week of 2016 started a reaction down, most probably confirming the doji
reversal signal in the weekly chart. The index is falling back to the median line of the up
moving pitchfork from the top of the volatility channel. The indicators are moving
down. I expect there will be a further down move the coming weeks. First target is
around 2200, a price support level, the low side of the volatility channel and back to the
averages. You should read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for the
longer term view.

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December 18, 2016

A week ago I wrote: "I am clearly forgetting that we are coming very close to the end of
2016. Usually prices stay high because fund managers want to close the year with a
good report. Meaning no down reaction for the moment. Contrary we should expect
more higher prices the next couple of weeks. The next closest target for the coming
week is a Fibonacci projection around 2272. I do expect a small reaction first. We will
probably see higher prices until the end-of-the-year. However, medium term I still
expect a larger correction, be careful! You should read my comments on the weekly
chart and monthly chart for the longer term view."
Last week I wrote: "The next closest target for the coming week is a Fibonacci
projection around 2272." There was a very small reaction on Monday but, Tuesday the
index reached the target at 2272. Once this point was reached, a reaction started in first
instance to the support of the R1 pivot level of the month. Indicators are turning down
and there is a negative divergence between the index and the stochastic RSI. With the
doji now in the weekly chart we have one more indication that a down reversal may be
started. We have to wait for a confirmation in the weekly chart. First down target is
around 2200. Keep in mind that we are only 2 weeks away from the end of 2016. Small
market volume may have a large influence on the index. You should read my comments
on the weekly chart and monthly chart for the longer term view.

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December 11, 2016

A week ago I wrote: "As expected, the short term reaction started the past week. For the
coming week(s) I expect a further reaction down toward following targets: the PP pivot
level of the current month, the 50 and 100 simple moving average and previous price
support around 2155. Possibly this will be a small 123 correction wave. You should
read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for the longer term view."
I am clearly forgetting that we are coming very close to the end of 2016. Usually prices
stay high because fund managers want to close the year with a good report. Meaning no
down reaction for the moment. Contrary we should expect more higher prices the next
couple of weeks. The next closest target for the coming week is a Fibonacci projection
around 2272. I do expect a small reaction first. We will probably see higher prices until
the end-of-the-year. However, medium term I still expect a larger correction, be careful!
You should read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for the longer
term view.

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December 3, 2016
A week ago I wrote: "We have a new long term top with wave 3.14 in the weekly chart.
In the daily chart we reach the upper side of the volatility channel. We should expect
some retracement. However, we can expect a higher top after a short term correction in
the daily chart. The next up target is around 2350. A correction now will probably move
towards the 50 and 100 average and price support around 2155. On the other hand we
are close to long term targets so, we must be prepared for a long term correction. Read
my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for my longer term view."
As expected, the short term reaction started the past week. For the coming week(s) I
expect a further reaction down toward following targets: the PP pivot level of the
current month, the 50 and 100 simple moving average and previous price support
around 2155. Possibly this will be a small 123 correction wave. You should read my
comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for the longer term view.

Reblog (0)
November 27, 2016

A week ago I wrote: "Last week, I expected a pullback, but the market closed a bit
higher and reached the resistance of the R2 pivot point of the month. This is also a
Fibonacci target. I see a convergent move between the index and the SVESRSI
indicator. Mostly this means that the last move is a correction and that the price will
continue the previous move down. First targets are the R1 (2160) and PP pivot (2140)
levels. Personally I am still avoiding longer term long positions. Read my comments on
the weekly chart and monthly chart for my longer term view."
We have a new long term top with wave 3.14 in the weekly chart. In the daily chart we
reach the upper side of the volatility channel. We should expect some retracement.
However, we can expect a higher top after a short term correction in the daily chart. The
next up target is around 2350. A correction now will probably move towards the 50 and
100 average and price support around 2155. On the other hand we are close to long term
targets so, we must be prepared for a long term correction. Read my comments on the
weekly chart and monthly chart for my longer term view.

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November 19, 2016

A week ago I wrote: "As I wrote last week: "In normal circumstances, I would expect
some retracement now. However, with the Presidential Elections on Tuesday, it is very
unpredictable. We must expect a very volatile market." What would happen in normal
circumstances came with some exaggerated retracement after a political historical fact,
probably nobody was expecting. The same with the volatile market, it only lasted a few
hours. I think next week there will be a pullback down, probably to the level of the PP
pivot of the month. Looking more than one week ahead is my opinion not possible for
the moment. Nothing is excluded for the near future, even a new long term top. I
suggest to trade only short term for now. Read my comments on the weekly chart
and monthly chart for my longer term view."
Last week, I expected a pullback, but the market closed a bit higher and reached the
resistance of the R2 pivot point of the month. This is also a Fibonacci target. I see a
convergent move between the index and the SVESRSI indicator. Mostly this means that
the last move is a correction and that the price will continue the previous move down.
First targets are the R1 (2160) and PP pivot (2140) levels. Personally I am still avoiding
longer term long positions. Read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly
chart for my longer term view.

Reblog (0)
November 12, 2016

A week ago I wrote: "Last week I mentioned: "From a purely technical analysis point of
view, I rather expect the index to break the support moving further down. There is
certainly much resistance for a move up." Moreover, yes, as expected, all days of the
week were negative, closing the week at 2085. The index now reaches the S2 pivot
support of the month, the low side of the volatility channel, the low side of a new down
moving pitchfork and a Fibonacci target. In normal circumstances, I would expect some
retracement now. However, with the Presidential Elections on Tuesday, it is very
unpredictable. There is a good chance that the move down continues when we look at
the monthly and weekly chart. I hope you are out of the market as I suggested already a
few times, now simply watching what is going to happen. We must expect a very
volatile market. Read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for the
longer term view."
As I wrote last week: "In normal circumstances, I would expect some retracement now.
However, with the Presidential Elections on Tuesday, it is very unpredictable. We must
expect a very volatile market." What would happen in normal circumstances came with
some exaggerated retracement after a political historical fact, probably nobody was
expecting. The same with the volatile market, it only lasted a few hours. I think next
week there will be a pullback down, probably to the level of the PP pivot of the month.
Looking more than one week ahead is my opinion not possible for the moment. Nothing
is excluded for the near future, even a new long term top. I suggest to trade only short
term for now. Read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for my longer
term view.

Reblog (0)
November 5, 2016
A week ago I wrote: "Last week I mentioned: " The index finds now resistance from
previous price levels, the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace, and the 100-day average. This
resistance is probably enough to stop the up correction, and we may expect a further
move down, in the first instance to the last low around 2115." The index came close to
this level on Friday, but could not break the support at this level. The index may stay
within the smaller trading range the coming week, waiting for the Presidential
Elections. From a purely technical analysis point of view, I rather expect the index to
break the support moving further down. There is certainly much resistance for a move
up. Read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for the longer
term view."
Last week I mentioned: "From a purely technical analysis point of view, I rather expect
the index to break the support moving further down. There is certainly much resistance
for a move up." Moreover, yes, as expected, all days of the week were negative, closing
the week at 2085. The index now reaches the S2 pivot support of the month, the low
side of the volatility channel, the low side of a new down moving pitchfork and a
Fibonacci target. In normal circumstances, I would expect some retracement now.
However, with the Presidential Elections on Tuesday, it is very unpredictable. There is a
good chance that the move down continues when we look at the monthly and weekly
chart. I hope you are out of the market as I suggested already a few times, now simply
watching what is going to happen. We must expect a very volatile market. Read my
comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for the longer term view.

Reblog (0)
October 29, 2016

A week ago I wrote: "Last week I mentioned: " At this level, there is price support,
support from the low side of the volatility channel, the low side of the up moving
pitchfork and the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace level. This support may create some up
retrace the coming week." That is what happened and the week is closing higher. The
index finds now resistance from previous price levels, the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace, and
the 100-day average. This resistance is probably enough to stop the up correction, and
we may expect a further move down, in the first instance to the last low around 2115.
Read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for the longer term view."
Last week I mentioned: " The index finds now resistance from previous price levels, the
76.4% Fibonacci retrace, and the 100-day average. This resistance is probably enough
to stop the up correction, and we may expect a further move down, in the first instance
to the last low around 2115." The index came close to this level on Friday, but could not
break the support at this level. The index may stay within the smaller trading range the
coming week, waiting for the Presidential Elections. From a purely technical analysis
point of view, I rather expect the index to break the support moving further down. There
is certainly much resistance for a move up. Read my comments on the weekly chart and
monthly chart for the longer term view.

Reblog (0)
October 22, 2016

A week ago I wrote: "It looks like the index broke the shorter term trading range
reaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace level on Thursday with the low price of the day.
At this level there is price support, support from the low side of the volatility channel,
the low side of the up moving pitchfork and the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace level. This
support may create some up pullback the coming week. There is room for a further
move down, so medium term, we must expect a continuation of the move down. Read
my comments with the weekly chart and monthly chart for the longer term view."
Last week I mentioned: " At this level there is price support, support from the low side
of the volatility channel, the low side of the up moving pitchfork and the 61.8%
Fibonacci retrace level. This support may create some up pullback the coming week."
This is what happened and the week is closing higher. The index finds now resistance
from previous price levels, the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace and the 100 day average. This is
probably enough resistance to stop the up correction and we may expect a further move
down, in first instance to the last low around 2115. Read my comments with the weekly

Reblog (0)
October 15, 2016

A week ago I wrote: "As expected, the index remains in a small trading range, bouncing
between previous index low levels and the 50 day moving average on the upper side and
inside the BBS channel. I do not expect big changes the coming weeks. Rather a flat
move towards the 100 day average while the US Presidential elections are some 4
weeks away. Long term I still expect a continuation of the down move. Read my
comments with the weekly chart and monthly chart for the longer term view."
It looks like the index broke the shorter term trading range reaching the 61.8%
Fibonacci retrace level on Thursday with the low price of the day. At this level there is
price support, support from the low side of the volatility channel, the low side of the up
moving pitchfork and the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace level. This support may create some
up pullback the coming week. There is room for a further move down, so medium term,
we must expect a continuation of the move down. Read my comments with the weekly

Reblog (0)
October 9, 2016
A week ago I wrote: "The first down target 2150, I mentioned last week, was reached
on Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday closed the Monday gap. Thursday there was
another move down once more reaching the 2150 target, but Friday there as another
move up to the upper side of the small trading range, closing the week around the same
level as the week before. The index remains close to the highest top of August. With the
US Presidential elections November 8, we should not exclude a new higher high.
However as I mentioned before I do not expect a continuation of the long term up move.
Contrary I rather expect the long term down correction to be continued, but possibly it
will only start after the elections. The coming week will probably remain within the
short term trading range. Downward short term targets are at 2130, 2120 and 2095.
Read my comments with the weekly chart and monthly chart for the longer term view."
As expected, the index remains in a small trading range, boucing between previous
index low levels and the 50 day moving average on the upper side and inside the BBS
channel. I do not expect big changes the coming weeks. Rather a flat move towards the
100 day average while the US Presidential elections are some 4 weeks away. Long term
I still expect a continuation of the down move. Read my comments with the weekly

Reblog (0)
October 1, 2016
A week ago I wrote: "The last support, the 100 day average and the S2 pivot support of
the previous week was not broken. Contrary, Wednesday and Thursday there were
higher index levels. A further move up was stopped by a previous price gap, the 50 day
average, the upper side of the BBS band and the PP pivot level of the month. Friday
there was a turn down, covering a previous price gap. If the index will continue the
medium and long term down move, next week will have to show lower prices. Targets
are 2150, 2120 and 2100. Read my comments with the weekly chart and monthly
The first down target 2150, I mentioned last week, was reached on Monday. Tuesday
and Wednesday closed the Monday gap. Thursday there was another move down once
more reaching the 2150 target, but Friday there as another move up to the upper side of
the small trading range, closing the week around the same level as the week before. The
index remains close to the highest top of August. With the US Presidential elections
November 8, we should not exclude a new higher high. However as I mentioned before
I do not expect a continuation of the long term up move. Contrary I rather expect the
long term down correction to be continued, but possibly it will only start after the
elections. The coming week will probably remain within the short term trading range.
Downward short term targets are at 2130, 2120 and 2095.

Reblog (0)
September 25, 2016

A week ago I wrote: "Last week I wrote: "Basically we should expect some pullback..."
This pullback was there already on Monday with a retrace to the 50 day average.
However, low prices the following days reached each time the previous low side finding
support at the S2 pivot, the 100 day average and the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace. It may
take some more days to break this support. Possibly it will be broken already the
coming week. Next down targets are the 50% retrace of the last up wave 3.24, the low
side of the up moving pitchfork, the S3 pivot of the month and the 200 day average.
The last support, the 100 day average and the S2 pivot support of the previous week was
not broken. Contrary, Wednesday and Thursday there were higher index levels. A
further move up was stopped by a previous price gap, the 50 day average, the upper side
of the BBS band and the PP pivot level of the month. Friday there was a turn down,
covering a previous price gap. If the index will continue the medium and long term
down move, next week will have to show lower prices. Targets are 2150, 2120 and
2100. Read my comments with the weekly chart and monthly chart for the longer
term view.

Reblog (0)
September 18, 2016

A week ago I wrote: "There was just enough power to bring the index some 20 points
higher to the upper side of the BBS band the first half of the week. Thursday there was a
small reaction and Friday a big black candle down, some 3% lower compared to the top
price of the week. This breaks the trading range, now finding support at the low side of
the volatility channel, a Fibonacci target and retrace level, the S2 pivot support,
previous price resistance now giving support and the 200 day average. Basically we
should expect some pullback. We must assume that this is not the end of the down move
and we should expect a further move down the coming week(s). My best guess is a
pullback to around 2160 followed by a further down move to a first target of around
2090. This is a 50% retrace of the last up wave 3.24, the S3 pivot support and the low
side of the up moving pitchfork. If you did not yet follow my advice to close open long
trades, think about doing it during the expected pullback. Read my comments with the
weekly chart and monthly chart for the longer term view."
Last week I wrote: "Basically we should expect some pullback..." This pullback was
there already on Monday with a retrace to the 50 day average. However, low prices the
following days reached each time the previous low side finding support at the S2 pivot,
the 100 day average and the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace. It may take some more days to
break this support. Possibly it will be broken already the coming week. Next down
targets are the 50% retrace of the last up wave 3.24, the low side of the up moving
pitchfork, the S3 pivot of the month and the 200 day average. Read my comments with
the weekly chart and monthly chart for the longer term view.

Reblog (0)
September 10, 2016

A week ago I wrote: "Looking at the daily chart, it is clear that the index is still in a
consolidation phase moving flat. What will be next? Should we expect higher or lower
prices the coming weeks? From a technical point of view, not easy to see signs in one or
the other direction. On the other hand, long term, weekly and monthly charts, I rather
expect a long term down reversal. I expect only a very limited up potential. I therefore
would close open long positions, but probably wait for some confirmation to go short."
There was just enough power to bring the index some 20 points higher to the upper side
of the BBS band the first half of the week. Thursday there was a small reaction and
Friday a big black candle down, some 3% lower compared to the top price of the week.
This breaks the trading range, now finding support at the low side of the volatility
channel, a Fibonacci target and retrace level, the S2 pivot support, previous price
resistance now giving support and the 200 day average. Basically we should expect
some pullback. We must assume that this is not the end of the down move and we
should expect a further move down the coming week(s). My best guess is a pullback to
around 2160 followed by a further down move to a first target of around 2090. This is a
50% retrace of the last up wave 3.24, the S3 pivot support and the low side of the up
moving pitchfork. If you did not yet follow my advice to close open long trades, think
about doing it during the expected pullback. Read my comments with the weekly chart
and monthly chart for the longer term view.

Reblog (0)
September 3, 2016
A week ago I wrote: "Before we can say that the downtrend is started, we need the
index at least below the last small bottom towards 2140. But the past week the index
may have giving a first push down. Friday we saw an attempt to push the index above
the last top, but that did not happen. Instead the index fell below a three weeks low. I do
expect a further move down towards the low side of the volatility channel, the 50 day
average, the PP pivot level of the month and the median line of the up moving
pitchfork, all around 2140. Read my comments with the weekly chart and monthly
Looking at the daily chart, it is clear that the index is still in a consolidation phase
moving flat. What will be next? Should we expect higher or lower prices the coming
weeks? From a technical point of view, not easy to see signs in one or the other
direction. On the other hand, long term, weekly and monthly charts, I rather expect a
long term down reversal. I expect only a very limited up potential. I therefore would
close open long positions, but probably wait for some confirmation to go short. Read
my comments with the weekly chart and monthly chart for the longer term view.

Reblog (0)
August 28, 2016

A week ago I wrote: "Again almost no move the past week. The negative divergence
under construction I mentioned last week is a fact. However, there is not yet a
confirmation for the start of the move down. The index is still at exactly the 161.8%
historical Fibonacci target measured from the last down correction. It is at the upper
side of the BBS and volatility channel. If you have open long positions it might be a
good idea to close them now. My opinion the upper side is very limited for the moment
and starting a correction may possibly be a long term reaction with a larger move down.
Before we can say that the downtrend is started, we need the index at least below the
last small bottom towards 2140. But the past week the index may have giving a first
push down. Friday we saw an attempt to push the index above the last top, but that did
not happen. Instead the index fell below a three weeks low. I do expect a further move
down towards the low side of the volatility channel, the 50 day average, the PP pivot
level of the month and the median line of the up moving pitchfork, all around 2140.
Read my comments with the weekly chart and monthly chart for the longer term view.

Reblog (0)
August 20, 2016

A week ago I wrote: "Almost no move the past week finishing with a bearish harami
cross. There is a good chance that a negative divergence between the index and
stochastic RSI is under construction. We need a confirmation of the negative bearish
harami cross the coming week(s) if the (longer term) down move is starting now. The
index now reaches exactly the 161.8% historical Fibonacci target measured from the
last down correction. It is at the upper side of the BBS and volatility channel. If you
have open long positions it might be a good idea to close them now. My opinion the
upper side is very limited for the moment and starting a correction may possibly be a
long term reaction with a larger move down. Read my comments with the weekly chart
and monthly chart for the longer term."
Again almost no move the past week. The negative divergence under construction I
mentioned last week is a fact. However, there is not yet a confirmation for the start of
the move down. The index is still at exactly the 161.8% historical Fibonacci target
measured from the last down correction. It is at the upper side of the BBS and volatility
channel. If you have open long positions it might be a good idea to close them now. My
opinion the upper side is very limited for the moment and starting a correction may
possibly be a long term reaction with a larger move down. Read my comments with the
weekly chart and monthly chart for the longer term view.

Reblog (0)
August 13, 2016

A week ago I wrote: "The expected short term reaction on Monday and Tuesday was
limited to the support of the low side of the BBS band. The second part of the week
there was a continuation of the medium term up move. Can the index still move higher?
I believe we cannot exclude a further move up towards a long term Fibonacci target at
2300. This is also close to the pivot resistance of the current month and the upper side
of the volatility channel. However I also believe this will be the maximum up target we
should expect for now. So we must start thinking about a larger long term down
reaction any week now. You better be prepared. Read my comments with the weekly
chart and monthly chart for the longer term."
Almost no move the past week finishing with a bearish harami cross. There is a good
chance that a negative divergence between the index and stochastic RSI is under
construction. We need a confirmation of the negative bearish harami cross the coming
week(s) if the (longer term) down move is starting now. The index now reaches exactly
the 161.8% historical Fibonacci target measured from the last down correction. It is at
the upper side of the BBS and volatility channel. If you have open long positions it
might be a good idea to close them now. My opinion the upper side is very limited for
the moment and starting a correction may possibly be a long term reaction with a larger
move down. Read my comments with the weekly chart and monthly chart for the longer
term.

Reblog (0)
Sylvain Vervoort
August 6, 2016
A week ago I wrote: "It looks like I can repeat my last week comments this week: "The
past week was a consolidation of the Fibonacci target reached at 261.8%. There were
only small moves and the index is closing the week just a fraction higher. There are a
number of technical reasons why we should expect a retracement. The stochastic RSI is
topping and turning down. The is a small negative divergence between the higher top in
price and a smaller top in the stochastic RSI. Price is bouncing against the upper side of
the volatility channel. Price is far away from the averages. Technical price downward
targets are at 2120, 2040 and 1950."
The expected short term reaction on Monday and Tuesday was limited to the support of
the low side of the BBS band. The second part of the week there was a continuation of
the medium term up move. Can the index still move higher? I believe we cannot
exclude a further move up towards a long term Fibonacci target at 2300. This is also
close to the pivot resistance of the current month and the upper side of the volatility
channel. However I also believe this will be the maximum up target we should expect
for now. So we must start thinking about a larger long term down reaction any week
now. You better be prepared. Read my comments with the weekly chart and monthly
chart for the longer term.

Reblog (0)
July 31, 2016

A week ago I wrote: "The past week was a consolidation of the Fibonacci target reached
at 261.8%. There were only small moves and the index is closing the week just a
fraction higher. There are a number of technical reasons why we should expect a
retracement. The stochastic RSI is topping and turning down. The is a small negative
divergence between the higher top in price and a smaller top in the stochastic RSI. Price
is bouncing against the upper side of the volatility channel. Price is far away from the
averages. Technical price downward targets are at 2120, 2040 and 1950."
It looks like I can repeat my last week comments this week: "The past week was a
consolidation of the Fibonacci target reached at 261.8%. There were only small moves
and the index is closing the week just a fraction higher. There are a number of technical
reasons why we should expect a retracement. The stochastic RSI is topping and turning
down. The is a small negative divergence between the higher top in price and a smaller
top in the stochastic RSI. Price is bouncing against the upper side of the volatility
channel. Price is far away from the averages. Technical price downward targets are at
2120, 2040 and 1950." Please read my longer term comments here: weekly chart and
monthly chart.

Reblog (0)
July 24, 2016

A week ago I wrote: "Last week I wrote: "It looks like the market is still pushing to go
for a new long term high. The index is now that close that probably this will happen."
Yes, we have a new long term top. The top is exactly at a historical 261.8% Fibonacci
price projection (2167) from the bottom of 02/11/2016. For me this is the small long
term expected higher top. We should now expect a long term reaction down. The
stochastic RSI is topping with a (very small) negative divergence. The first target will
be 2120 followed by the 50, 100 and 200 simple moving average (around 2000)."
The past week was a consolidation of the Fibonacci target reached at 261.8%. There
were only small moves and the index is closing the week just a fraction higher. There
are a number of technical reasons why we should expect a retracement. The stochastic
RSI is topping and turning down. The is a small negative divergence between the higher
top in price and a smaller top in the stochastic RSI. Price is bouncing against the upper
side of the volatility channel. Price is far away from the averages. Technical price
downward targets are at 2120, 2040 and 1950.

Reblog (0)
July 16, 2016

A week ago I wrote: "It looks like the market is still pushing to go for a new long term
high. The index is now that close that probably this will happen. But as I mentioned
already before, if this happens, my opinion it will be only a small new top. The target
would be 2170. The long term consolidation will start a new downward move. The
index reached the upper side of a slow moving upward pitchfork. I consider the force to
start a new move down to have a better chance, be it after a new small long term top.
First targets are the 50 and 100 simple moving averages and the median line of the up
moving pitchfork."
Last week I wrote: "It looks like the market is still pushing to go for a new long term
high. The index is now that close that probably this will happen." Yes, we have a new
long term top. The top is at exactly at a historical 261.8% Fibonacci price projection
(2167) from the bottom of 02/11/2016. For me this is the small long term expected
higher top. We should now expect a long term reaction down. The stochastic RSI is
topping with a (very small) negative divergence. The first target will be 2120 followed
by the 50, 100 and 200 simple moving average (around 2000).

Reblog (0)
July 10, 2016

A week ago I wrote: "The index reached the expected next first down target at 2000 on
Monday, reaching the low side of the down moving pitchfork and breaking below the
200 day simple moving average. The rest of the week recovered the move down back up
to the upper side of the down moving pitchfork. Longer term we are still in a down
move. We should not exclude the possibility of a further move up, but I believe if this
happens it will be limited. Medium and longer term I expect a continuation of the move
down. I believe the larger up retracement is a kind of overreaction to the two days large
move down."
It looks like the market is still pushing to go for a new long term high. The index is now
that close that probably this will happen. But as I mentioned already before, if this
happens, my opinion it will be only a small new top. The target would be 2170. The
long term consolidation will start a new downward move. The index reached the upper
side of a slow moving upward pitchfork. I consider the force to start a new move down
to have a better chance, be it after a new small long term top. First targets are the 50 and
100 simple moving averages and the median line of the up moving pitchfork.

Reblog (0)
July 3, 2016
A week ago I wrote: "Apparently the Brexit did not produce any additional effect to the
S&P500 than what I already expected last week; a move further down towards 2030 as I
mentioned a week ago. But, as you can see in the chart a big move down in a single day
on Friday, reaching price support and the 100 day simple moving average. Probably
there will be some pullback now, but medium term I expect a further move down. Next
down targets are at 2000, 1960 and 1920. Longer term the target is 1625."
The index reached the expected next first down target at 2000 on Monday, reaching the
low side of the down moving pitchfork and breaking below the 200 day simple moving
average. The rest of the week recovered the move down back up to the upper side of the
down moving pitchfork. Longer term we are still in a down move. We should not
exclude the possibility of a further move up, but I believe if this happens it will be
limited. Medium and longer term I expect a continuation of the move down. I believe
the larger up retracement is a kind of overreaction to the two days large move down.

Reblog (0)
June 26, 2016

A week ago I wrote: "The bearish harami cross confirmed candle pattern was continued
on Monday with another large black candle down. The low of the week went down to
2050 finding support on the median line of the down moving pitchfork and the S1 pivot
support of the month. I think the next down target is the low side of the volatility band
and the 200 day average around 2030. I wonder what a possible BREXIT of the UK
may do to the markets the coming week?"
Apparently the Brexit did not produce any additional effect to the S&P500 than what I
already expected last week; a move further down towards 2030 as I mentioned a week
ago. But, as you can see in the chart a big move down in a single day on Friday,
reaching price support and the 100 day simple moving average. Probably there will be
some pullback now, but medium term I expect a further move down. Next down targets
are at 2000, 1960 and 1920. Longer term the target is 1625.

Reblog (0)
June 18, 2016

A week ago I wrote: "We had to wait until Friday to get the expected turn down. At the
new E2 extended top correction, reaching the R1 pivot resistance of the month, we see a
bearish harami cross followed Friday by a larger correction down. I have already drawn
a new downward pitchfork. Next down targets are the PP pivot level around 2075 and
2015 a Fibonacci target if we have started to continue the longer term down move. The
index will probably move down to the median line of the downward pitchfork, the low
side of the volatility band and the 100 daily average for the coming week(s)."
The bearish harami cross confirmed candle pattern was continued on Monday with
another large black candle down. The low of the week went down to 2050 finding
support on the median line of the down moving pitchfork and the S1 pivot support of
the month. I think the next down target is the low side of the volatility band and the 200
day average around 2030. I wonder what a possible BREXIT of the UK may do to the
markets the coming week?

Reblog (0)
June 11, 2016

A week ago I wrote: "Since we are closing the week at the same level as the week
before, nothing has changed. But we have now a hanging man and bearish harami
candle stick top reversal pattern. This may be the announcement of a reversal for the
coming week. The index is very close to the price resistance of the previous top wave
E2, the upper side of the shorter term flat pitchfork while the stochastic RSI is topping
and already making a small turn down. It looks like we rather should expect a
continuation of the medium turn down move the coming week(s)."
We had to wait until Friday to get the expected turn down. At the new E2 extended top
correction, reaching the R1 pivot resistance of the month, we see a bearish harami cross
followed Friday by a larger correction down. I have already drawn a new downward
pitchfork. Next down targets are the PP pivot level around 2075 and 2015 a Fibonacci
target if we have started to continue the longer term down move. The index will
probably move down to the median line of the downward pitchfork, the low side of the
volatility band and the 100 daily average for the coming week(s).

Reblog (0)
June 4, 2016
A week ago I wrote: "I thought there would only be a small further up pullback, but
there was a larger one last week moving up close to the R1 pivot of the month of May,
the previous top of correction wave E2, and the upper side of a longer term and short
term pitchfork. We should not exclude a further move up to the upper side of the
volatility band, making a small higher top above the previous E2 correction wave. But I
believe the long term correction wave down is not finished. The next couple of weeks
will have to show what is coming next."
Since we are closing the week at the same level as the week before, nothing has
changed. But we have now a hanging man and bearish harami candle stick top reversal
pattern. This may be the announcement of a reversal for the coming week. The index is
very close to the price resistance of the previous top wave E2, the upper side of the
shorter term flat pitchfork while the stochastic RSI is topping and already making a
small turn down. It looks like we rather should expect a continuation of the medium
turn down move the coming week(s).

Reblog (0)
May 29, 2016

A week ago I wrote: "Monday there was an up reaction, but is was stopped by the
resistance of the PP pivot level of the month and a previous top (before the end of wave
E2). This brought the index back down again to the level of the 76.4% Fibonacci
retracement. On Thursday this level was broken with a low price down to to the S1
pivot support of the month. Finally on Friday we see a pullback up to the 50 day
average, closing the week slightly higher. There may be some small further up reaction,
but it looks like there is enough resistance close by to stop an up move. I think we still
should expect a further move down the coming weeks"
I thought there would only be a small further up pullback, but there was a larger one the
last week moving up close to the R1 pivot of the month, the previous top of correction
wave E2, and the upper side of a longer term and short term pitchfork. We should not
exclude a further move up to the upper side of the volatility band, making a small higher
top above the previous E2 correction wave. But I believe the long term correction wave
down is not finished. The next couple of weeks will have to show what is coming next.

Reblog (0)
May 21, 2016

A week ago I wrote: "Last week I commented: "The index now finds support on the
76.4% Fibonacci retracement over the move up from the bottom of correction wave 3.3.
There is also support from previous lows in the index. Reason why there may be some
pullback up to the upper side of the downward pitchfork." We got that pullback on
Monday and Tuesday, as expected exactly to the level of the upper side of the down
moving pitchfork. The rest of the week the previous down move continued, closing at
the support of previous lows and the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement. There is pretty good
support, Nevertheless I expect a further move down the coming week(s), in first
instance to the level of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, the 100 daily average and the
S2 pivot support of the month. "
Monday there was an up reaction, but is was stopped by the resistance of the PP pivot
level of the month and a previous top (before the end of wave E2). This brought the
index back down again to the level of the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement. On Thursday
this level was broken with a low price down to to the S1 pivot support of the month.
Finally on Friday we see a pullback up to the 50 day average, closing the week slightly
higher. There may be some small further up reaction, but it looks like there is enough
resistance close by to stop an up move. I think we still should expect a further move
down the coming weeks.

Reblog (0)
May 15, 2016

A week ago I wrote: "The idea that we had a confirmation of the downturn two weeks
ago, is further confirmed the past week with a lower index. Also on the weekly chart it
looks like we must expect a further down move. The index now finds support on the
76.4% Fibonacci retracement over the move up from the bottom of correction wave 3.3.
There is also support from previous lows in the index. Reason why there may be some
pullback up to the upper side of the downward pitchfork. But medium term we should
expect a further move down towards the 100 day average, the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement, the S2 pivot support of the month and the 50% retrace around 1960.
Longer term the median line of the downward pitchfork is the next low target, probably
below 1800."
Last week I commented: "The index now finds support on the 76.4% Fibonacci
retracement over the move up from the bottom of correction wave 3.3. There is
also support from previous lows in the index. Reason why there may be some pullback
up to the upper side of the downward pitchfork." We got that pullback on Monday and
Tuesday, as expected exactly to the level of the upper side of the down moving
pitchfork. The rest of the week the previous down move continued, closing at the
support of previous lows and the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement. There is pretty good
support, Nevertheless I expect a further move down the coming week(s), in first
instance to the level of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, the 100 daily average and the
S2 pivot support of the month.

Reblog (0)
May 7, 2016
A week ago I wrote: "It looks like the expected move down is confirmed. There may be
another small up retracement the coming week, but medium (look at the weekly chart)
and longer term (look at the monthly chart) I expect a continuation of the down move.
Next down targets on the daily chart are the 50, 100 and 200 daily averages and the
61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1996. Further away we should expect a move
much lower towards the median line of the new downward pitchfork. "
The idea that we had a confirmation of the downturn two weeks ago, is further
confirmed the past week with a lower index. Also on the weekly chart it looks like we
must expect a further down move. The index now finds support on the 76.4% Fibonacci
retracement over the move up from the bottom of correction wave 3.3. There is
also support from previous lows in the index. Reason why there may be some pullback
up to the upper side of the downward pitchfork. But medium term we should expect a
further move down towards the 100 day average, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, the
S2 pivot support of the month and the 50% retrace around 1960. Longer term the
median line of the downward pitchfork is the next low target, probably below 1800.

Reblog (0)
May 1, 2016
A week ago I wrote: "Last week I mentioned: "Maybe the downturn has started already
with a couple of doji candles on Thursday and Friday?" This week we can say the same
with a kind of evening doji star candlestick pattern. There is a negative divergence
between price making a higher top and the indicators making a lower top. There is still a
valid extended wave 2 (E2) correction. This may be the end of the Elliott 5-impulse
wave up started from wave bottom 3.3. If the move down is confirmed, we should
expect a further move down towards the PP pivot level of the month, the 200 average,
the 100 average, the 50 day average and the low side of the volatility channel, all around
2020."
It looks like the expected move down is confirmed. There may be another small up
retracement the coming week, but medium (look at the weekly chart) and longer term
(look at the monthly chart) I expect a continuation of the down move. Next down
targets on the daily chart are the 50, 100 and 200 daily averages and the 61.8%
Fibonacci retracement level at 1996. Further away we should expect a move much
lower towards the median line of the new downward pitchfork.
Weekly chart Comments HERE.


Reblog (0)
April 23, 2016

A week ago I wrote: "I am repeating: "... it should start happening the coming week..."
Maybe the downturn has started already with a couple of doji candles on Thursday and
Friday? If the index is further moving down, you will see another negative divergence
between the index and both indicators. Down targets are the PP pivot level of the
month, the 200 average, the 100 average, the 50 day average and the low side of the
volatility channel. Nothing is ever a 100% sure, but it would surprise me if the last long
term top would be broken."
Last week I mentioned: "Maybe the downturn has started already with a couple of doji
candles on Thursday and Friday?" This week we can say the same with a kind of
evening doji star candlestick pattern. There is a negative divergence between price
making a higher top and the indicators making a lower top. There is still a valid
extended wave 2 (E2) correction. This may be the end of the Elliott 5-impulse wave
up from wave bottom 3.3. If the move down is confirmed, we should expect a further
move down towards the PP pivot level of the month, the 200 average, the 100 average,
the 50 day average and the low side of the volatility channel, all around 2020.
Weekly charts Comments HERE.


Reblog (0)
April 17, 2016

A week ago I wrote: "Last week I wrote: "... still in range to finish a valid extended
wave 2 correction (E2). But it should start happening the coming week. I do expect in
first instance a move down to the level of the 200 day average around 2020." The index
went down close to 2030, not to far away from the pivot support of the month and the
200 day average. Possibly the E2 extended correction wave up is now completed. We
may expect a further move down with targets; the PP pivot level, the 200 average, the
100 average, the 50 day average and the low side of the volatility band before there will
be a short term up retracement. "
I am repeating: "... it should start happening the coming week..." Maybe the downturn
has started already with a couple of doji candles on Thursday and Friday? If the index is
further moving down, you will see another negative divergence between the index and
both indicators. Down targets are the PP pivot level of the month, the 200 average, the
100 average, the 50 day average and the low side of the volatility channel. Nothing is
ever a 100% sure, but it would surprise me if the last long term top would be broken.
Weekly charts Comments HERE.


Reblog (0)
April 9, 2016
A week ago I wrote: "Not the expected reversal down to continue the long term down
move yet. The index is at the upper side of the volatility band, the upper side of the BBS
band and still in range to finish a valid extended wave 2 correction (E2). But it should
start happening the coming week. I do expect in first instance a move down to the level
of the 200 day average around 2020. Unfortunately we cannot exclude an alternative
scenario, where the last wave 2 is a new wave 1 and wave 3.3 is a wave 2 correction,
now possibly making a wave 3 up and not an extended wave E2. Even a down
correction the coming week will not take away that doubt for the moment."
Last week I wrote: "... still in range to finish a valid extended wave 2 correction (E2).
But it should start happening the coming week. I do expect in first instance a move
down to the level of the 200 day average around 2020." The index went down close to
2030, not to far away from the pivot support of the month and the 200 day average.
Possibly the E2 extended correction wave up is now completed. We may expect a
further move down with targets; the PP pivot level, the 200 average, the 100 average,
the 50 day average and the low side of the volatility band before there will be a short
term up retracement.
Weekly chart comments HERE.


Reblog (0)
April 2, 2016
A week ago I wrote: "The 4-day trading week started a fraction higher. Tuesday we saw
a doji candle, basically confirmed with a black down candle. The index moved down
and found support on Thursday at the level of the 200 daily average and the low side of
the BBS band. We should expect in first instance a further move down to the level of
the R1 pivot of the month, the 100-day average around 2000 and the low side of the up
moving pitchfork. The target after that is around 1950."
Not the expected reversal down to continue the long term down move yet. The index is
at the upper side of the volatility band, the upper side of the BBS band and still in range
to finish a valid extended wave 2 correction (E2). But it should start happening the
coming week. I do expect in first instance a move down to the level of the 200 day
average around 2020. Unfortunately we cannot exclude an alternative scenario, where
the last wave 2 is a new wave 1 and wave 3.3 is a wave 2 correction, now possibly
making a wave 3 up and not an extended wave E2. Even a down correction the coming
week will not take away that doubt for the moment.

Reblog (0)
March 26, 2016

A week ago I wrote: "Two weeks ago wrote: "We are now at the point where there is
sufficient resistance and we should expect the start of a correction down, probably after
a small further move up (2020-2040). I think this statement is still valid." The up move
the second part of the week brought the index up to 2050. We are now at the upper side
of the volatility band reaching a Fibonacci target and the R2 pivot resistance of the
month. If a down move starts the coming week, we will see a negative divergence
between the index and the Stochastic RSI. You never know, but I assume at least a
correction wave down will be started."
The 4-day trading week started a fraction higher. Tuesday we saw a doji candle,
basically confirmed with a black down candle. The index moved down and found
support on Thursday at the level of the 200 daily average and the low side of the BBS
band. We should expect in first instance a further move down to the level of the R1
pivot of the month, the 100-day average around 2000 and the low side of the up moving
pitchfork. The target after that is around 1950.

Reblog (0)
Sylvain Vervoort
March 20, 2016
A week ago I wrote: "There was a correction down to 1970 from Monday till Thursday,
but Friday closed the week higher up to 2022. Last week I wrote: "We are now at the
point where there is sufficient resistance and we should expect the start of a correction
down, probably after a small further move up (2020-2040)." I think this statement is still
valid. There is a lot of price resistance at the 2040 level, inclusive a previous gap at the
start of wave 3.2 down. Furthermore there is resistance from the 200 day average, the
upper side of the volatility channel and the R2 pivot resistance of the month. I assume
this is enough resistance to make the index turn down the coming week(s). Please
remember this may be the end of a longer term Elliott wave 4 correction. If that is the
case we must expect a continuation of the longer term down move with and Elliott wave
5 bringing price in first instance below the wave 3.3."
Two weeks ago wrote: "We are now at the point where there is sufficient resistance and
we should expect the start of a correction down, probably after a small further move up
(2020-2040). I think this statement is still valid." The up move the second part of the
week brought the index up to 2050. We are now at the upper side of the volatility band
reaching a Fibonacci target and the R2 pivot resistance of the month. If a down move
starts the coming week, we will see a negative divergence between the index and the
Stochastic RSI. You never know, but I assume at least a correction wave down will be
started.
Sylvain Vervoort: More on http://stocata.org/

Reblog (0)
March 13, 2016

A week ago I wrote: "Last week I commented: "... most probably there will be a further
correction up to a level of 2000. This is a price resistance, the upper side of the volatility
band and the 100 day average active resistance." Believe it or not, but I was right
again... We are now at the point where there is sufficient resistance and we should
expect the start of a correction down, probably after a small further move up (2020-
2040). This may be the end of a longer term Elliott wave 4 correction. If that is the case
we must expect a continuation of the longer term down move with and Elliott wave
5 bringing price in first instance below the wave 3.3."
There was a correction down to 1970 from Monday till Thursday, but Friday closed the
week higher up to 2022. Last week I wrote: "We are now at the point where there is
sufficient resistance and we should expect the start of a correction down, probably after
a small further move up (2020-2040)." I think this statement is still valid. There is a lot
of price resistance at the 2040 level, inclusive a previous gap at the start of wave 3.2
down. Furthermore there is resistance from the 200 day average, the upper side of the
volatility channel and the R2 pivot resistance of the month. I assume this is enough
resistance to make the index turn down the coming week(s). Please remember this may
be the end of a longer term Elliott wave 4 correction. If that is the case we must expect a
continuation of the longer term down move with and Elliott wave 5 bringing price in
first instance below the wave 3.3.

Reblog (0)
March 5, 2016
A week ago I wrote: "Last week I mentioned: "As always there is an alternative,
resuming the long term down move already now. I believe there is only a very small
chance that this will happen." And yes this did not happen. Rather as expected the up
correction continued further creating the longer term Elliott correction wave 4. We have
already an extended correction wave E2 now. I have to repeat what I wrote last week:
most probably there will be a further correction up to a level of 2000. This is a price
resistance, the upper side of the volatility band and the 100 day average active
resistance. This would end the longer term Elliot wave 4 upward retracement, followed
by a continuation of the long term down move, to finish the first long term impulse
wave down (Elliott wave 5). We must keep in mind that the down continuation may
come faster than we think."
Last week I commented: "... most probably there will be a further correction up to a
level of 2000. This is a price resistance, the upper side of the volatility band and the 100
day average active resistance." Believe it or not, but I was right again... We are now at
the point where there is sufficient resistance and we should expect the start of a
correction down, probably after a small further move up (2020-2040). This may be the
end of a longer term Elliott wave 4 correction. If that is the case we must expect a
continuation of the longer term down move with and Elliott wave 5 bringing price in
first instance below the wave 3.3.
Sylvain Vervoort Stocata.Org

Reblog (0)
February 27, 2016

A week ago I wrote: "The 1910 first target I mentioned last week was reached and the
index closes the week at 1917. Most probably there will be a further up
correction creating an extended wave 2 (E2) up to a level of 2000. This is a price
resistance, the upper side of the volatility band, the 100 day average active resistance
and close to the 200 day average resistance. This would then be the end of a longer term
Elliot wave 4 correction, followed by a continuation of the long term down move, to
finish the first long term impulse wave down (Elliott wave 5). As always there is an
alternative, resuming the long term down move already now. I believe there is only a
very small chance that this will happen."
Last week I mentioned: "As always there is an alternative, resuming the long term down
move already now. I believe there is only a very small chance that this will happen."
And yes this did not happen. Rather as expected the up correction continued further
creating the longer term Elliott correction wave 4. We have already an extended
correction wave E2 now. I have to repeat what I wrote last week: most probably there
will be a further correction up to a level of 2000. This is a price resistance, the upper
side of the volatility band and the 100 day average active resistance. This would end the
longer term Elliot wave 4 upward retracement, followed by a continuation of the long
term down move, to finish the first long term impulse wave down (Elliott wave 5). We
must keep in mind that the down continuation may come faster than we think.

Reblog (0)
February 20, 2016

A week ago I wrote: "The index reached already two expected targets. The level of the
first target mentioned last week at 1840 and there is already a valid wave 3.3 down.
This is most probably the end of an Elliott impulse wave 3. In that case we should
expect a correction wave (Elliott wave 4), finally followed by a wave 5 down to a first
target of 1780. Targets for the correction move up are price resistance around 1910, a
Fibonacci target, the upper side of the BBS channel and the upper side of the downward
moving pitchfork. I expect a maximum retracement between 1960 and 2000. I would
advice not to go long, assuming this is just a correction for the long term move down."
The 1910 first target I mentioned last week was reached and the index closes the week
at 1917. Most probably there will be a further up correction creating an extended wave 2
(E2) up to a level of 2000. This is a price resistance, the upper side of the volatility
band, the 100 day average active resistance and close to the 200 day average resistance.
This would then be the end of a longer term Elliot wave 4 correction, followed by a
continuation of the long term down move, to finish the first long term impulse wave
down (Elliott wave 5). As always there is an alternative, resuming the long term down
move already now. I believe there is only a very small chance that this will happen.

Reblog (0)
February 13, 2016

A week ago I wrote: "Last week I wrote: "There is little room for a small further up
move, but we should expect the coming week(s) a continuation of the move down for a
wave 3.3 down." On Monday there was the small further up correction, finishing the
day with a doji candle and a bearish harami (cross). This reversal was confirmed on
Tuesday with a large black candle. After some recovery, Friday closed at 1880. The
index and the stochastic RSI show a hidden divergence with lower tops in the index and
higher tops in the indicator. As a result we should expect a continuation of the down
move. This will possibly be a 5-impulse wave for the creation of wave 3.3 down. First
targets are 1840 and 1780."
The index reached already two expected targets. The level of the first target mentioned
last week at 1840 and there is already a valid wave 3.3 down. This is most probably the
end of an Elliott impulse wave 3. In that case we should expect a correction wave
(Elliott wave 4), finally followed by a wave 5 down to a first target of 1780. Targets for
the correction move up are price resistance around 1910, a Fibonacci target, the upper
side of the BBS channel and the upper side of the downward moving pitchfork. I expect
a maximum retracement from 1960 to 2000. I would advice not to go long, assuming
this is just a correction for the long term move down.

Reblog (0)
February 6, 2016
A week ago I wrote: "As I mentioned last week: "It looks like there is more room for a
further up retracement. Probably to the level of the S2 pivot resistance." This was also
the level of a 50% retracement of the wave 3.2 down and the resistance of a previous
gap in the index. And yes this was the point reached the past week. There is little room
for a small further up move, but we should expect the coming week(s) a continuation of
the move down for a wave 3.3 down. First target is 1740. The index and Stochastic RSI
are building a hidden divergence with lower tops in the index and higher tops in the
indicator. Generally this means we must expect a continuation of the move down once
the correction wave 2 is completed. "
Last week I wrote: "There is little room for a small further up move, but we should
expect the coming week(s) a continuation of the move down for a wave 3.3 down." On
Monday there was the small further up correction, finishing the day with a doji candle
and a bearish harami (cross). This reversal was confirmed on Tuesday with a large black
candle. After some recovery, Friday closed at 1880. The index and the stochastic RSI
show a hidden divergence with lower tops in the index and higher tops in the indicator.
As a result we should expect a continuation of the down move. This will possibly be a
5-impulse wave for the creation of wave 3.3 down. First targets are 1840 and 1780.

Reblog (0)
January 24, 2016

Two weeks ago I wrote: "I looks like my prediction from already 3 weeks ago was very
good. There was a pullback creating an extended wave 2, but the last week of 2015 the
top of the pullback was reached and a continuation of the downtrend started. What was
my expected target 3 weeks ago? Between 1930 and 1920. We are closing the first week
of 2016 at, yes, 1922. On the daily chart we have now a valid 3.2 wave down. There is
room for a further move down. Target is the low side of the down moving pitchfork, the
S3 pivot support and the level of 1830. At that point we must expect some retracement.
Longer term targets are 1730 and 1600 which I consider the minimum correction we
should expect long term. Verify at the traderslibrary blog what I wrote on December 12,
2015: "Downward price targets are at: 1995, 1975 and 1925. Longer term targets are at
1830 and 1740. But most probably there will be some up retracement the coming couple
of weeks before moving to lower levels."
Unfortunately I could not write a comment last week. I had a heart attack and was in
hospital. A lot better for the moment, but fast feeling tired, it will take a bit more time to
recover. My comment a couple of weeks ago was correct expecting a first low around
1830 for the construction of wave 3.2 down. Starting a recovery past that point. It looks
like there is more room for a further up retracement. Probably to the level of the S2
pivot resistance and a bit further up to the S1 pivot level, the 100 daily average and
price resistance around 2000. But there is a convergent move between the index and the
stochastic indicator. This means that most probably we are now getting a correction for
the last wave down, but a continuation of the down move once this correction finishes.
The next longer term down target is 1740 and 1600.

Reblog (0)
January 9, 2016
Some 3 weeks ago, I wrote: "Last week I mentioned: "There may be some pullback, but
I expect a further move down to a first target at the level of the S2 pivot support of the
month." The first part of the week we saw the pullback almost retracing completely the
previous week down move. But Thursday and Friday finally ended with a lower closing
price for the week. It looks like we should expect a further move down towards 1920-
1930 to complete the wave 3.2 down. We have lower tops and bottoms and price moves
below all averages inside a down moving pitchfork. Most probably there will be a
pullback before reaching the wave 3.2 target. "
I looks like my prediction from already 3 weeks ago was very good. There was a
pullback creating an extended wave 2, but the last week of 2015 the top of the pullback
was reached and a continuation of the downtrend started. What was my expected target
3 weeks ago? Between 1930 and 1920. We are closing the first week of 2016 at, yes,
1922. On the daily chart we have now a valid 3.2 wave down. There is room for a
further move down. Target is the low side of the down moving pitchfork, the S3 pivot
support and the level of 1830. At that point we must expect some retracement. Longer
term targets are 1730 and 1600 which I consider the minimum correction we should
expect long term. Verify at the traderslibrary blog what I wrote on December 12, 2015:
"Downward price targets are at: 1995, 1975 and 1925. Longer term targets are at 1830
and 1740. But most probably there will be some up retracement the coming couple of
weeks before moving to lower levels."

Reblog (0)
December 19, 2015

Last week I wrote: "Last week I wrote: "With the convergent move between price and
the Stochastic RSI indicator, the logic thing would be a continuation of the down move
for the creation of a wave 3 down." And yes we have already a confirmed wave 3 down.
There may be some pullback, but I expect a further move down to a first target at the
level of the S2 pivot support of the month. Downward price targets are at: 1995, 1975
and 1925. Longer term targets are at 1830 and 1740. But most probably there will be
some up retracement the coming couple of weeks before moving to lower levels."
Last week I mentioned: "There may be some pullback, but I expect a further move
down to a first target at the level of the S2 pivot support of the month." The first part of
the week we saw the pullback almost retracing completely the previous week down
move. But Thursday and Friday finally ended with a lower closing price for the week. It
looks like we should expect a further move down towards 1920-1930 to complete the
wave 3.2 down. We have lower tops and bottoms and price moves below all
averages inside a down moving pitchfork. Most probably there will be a pullback before
reaching the wave 3.2 target.

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December 12, 2015

Last week I wrote: "Two days the index was moving down nicely to the level of the 50
and 100 daily simple moving average, but once more it recovered almost completely on
Friday. I already mentioned: "The last month of the year is always difficult because
trading volume usually goes down and little volume has much more influence". With
the convergent move between price and the Stochastic RSI indicator, the logic thing
would be a continuation of the down move for the creation of a wave 3 down. Possibly
to the level of the pivot support S2. I do expect a price move within a smaller trading
range the rest of the month".
The past week I mentioned: "With the convergent move between price and the
Stochastic RSI indicator, the logic thing would be a continuation of the down move for
the creation of a wave 3 down". And yes we have already a confirmed wave 3 down.
There may be some pullback, but I expect a further move down to a first target at the
level of the S2 pivot support of the month. Downward price targets are at: 1995, 1975
and 1925. Longer term targets are at 1830 and 1740. But most probably there will be
some up retracement the coming couple of weeks before moving to lower levels.

Reblog (0)
December 5, 2015
Last week I wrote: "The 4 day trading week with very small daily moves has not
changed much. I have to repeat: "If this is the end of the upwards pullback we should
continue the longer term down move the coming week. There is some room for
extending the last E2 wave just a fraction higher. This is not an impossible scenario
before the down trend is resumed. I think we will know by the end of the coming week.
On the other hand I do not believe in a continuation of the long term up move. I rather
advice to profit from higher prices to start gradually opening short positions.". We will
start December the coming week. The last month of the year is always difficult because
trading volume usually goes down and little volume has much more influence.
Normally I do expect a smaller wave 3 down the coming week(s). Wait and see...".
Two days the index was moving down nicely to the level of the 50 and 100 daily simple
moving average, but once more it recovered almost completely on Friday. I already
mentioned: "The last month of the year is always difficult because trading volume
usually goes down and little volume has much more influence". With the convergent
move between price and the Stochastic RSi indicator, the logic thing would be a
continuation of the down move for the creation of a wave 3 down. Possibly to the level
of the pivot support S2. I do expect a price move within a smaller trading range the rest
of the month.

Reblog (0)
November 28, 2015

Last week I wrote: "Last week I wrote: "There may be some short term retracement, but
we should expect a further move down for the creation of a wave 3.3 down. The
minimum target for this is 1850.". If this is the end of the upwards pullback we should
continue the longer term down move the coming week. There is some room for
extending the last E2 wave just a fraction higher. This is not an impossible scenario
before the down trend is resumed. I think we will know by the end of the coming week.
On the other hand I do not believe in a continuation of the long term up move. I rather
advice to profit from higher prices to start gradually opening short positions.".
The 4 day trading week with very small daily moves has not changed much. I have to
repeat: "If this is the end of the upwards pullback we should continue the longer term
down move the coming week. There is some room for extending the last E2 wave just a
fraction higher. This is not an impossible scenario before the down trend is resumed. I
think we will know by the end of the coming week. On the other hand I do not believe
in a continuation of the long term up move. I rather advice to profit from higher prices
to start gradually opening short positions.". We will start December the coming week.
The last month of the year is always difficult because trading volume usually goes down
and little volume has much more influence. Normally I do expect a smaller wave 3
down the coming week(s). Wait and see...

Reblog (0)
November 21, 2015

Last week I wrote: "Last week I mentioned a number of reasons for expecting a down
move towards the 100 daily average support and the low side of the volatility channel.
The index actually past the 100 average moving down to the PP pivot level of the month
and the price level support of a previous correction wave E2, the 100% upper reference
of the last up Fibonacci projection. It looks like we have a new longer term extended
wave 2 correction for the top wave 3.12 in the weekly chart. Price also falls below the
up moving wedge pattern. There may be some short term retracement, but we should
expect a further move down for the creation of a wave 3.3 down. The minimum target
for this is 1850.".
Last week I wrote: "There may be some short term retracement, but we should expect a
further move down for the creation of a wave 3.3 down. The minimum target for this is
1850.". If this is the end of the upwards pullback we should continue the longer term
down move the coming week. There is some room for extending the last E2 wave just a
fraction higher. This is not an impossible scenario before the down trend is resumed. I
think we will know by the end of the coming week. On the other hand I do not believe
in a continuation of the long term up move. I rather advice to profit from higher prices
to start gradually opening short positions.

Reblog (0)
November 14, 2015

Last week I wrote: "Except for Monday, the daily moves were limited, but closing the
week higher outside the wedge pattern. The upper side of the pattern may give some
support. There are however a few indications pointing in the direction of the start of a
possible move down. There is a bearish engulfing candle pattern at the top, a lot of
incertitude with doji candles and the index reached exactly the 161.8% Fibonacci target
projected from the low in August and the top of the wave 3(E2) extended up reaction in
September. Indicators are topping and showing some divergence. Reason why I expect
in first instance a down retracement to the 100 average support and the low side of the
volatility channel. ".
Last week I mentioned a number of reasons for expecting a down move towards the 100
daily average support and the low side of the volatility channel. The index actually past
the 100 average moving down to the PP pivot level of the month and the price level
support of a previous correction wave E2, the 100% upper reference of the last up
Fibonacci projection. It looks like we have a new longer term extended wave 2
correction for the top wave 3.12 in the weekly chart. Price also falls below the up
moving wedge pattern. There may be some short term retracement, but we should
expect a further move down for the creation of a wave 3.3 down. The minimum target
for this is 1850.

Reblog (0)
November 7, 2015
Last week I wrote: "Only a small move the past week, bouncing against the resistance
of the upper side of the wedge pattern, the R2 pivot resistance of the month and the
upper side of the volatility channel. For the coming week we should expect a down
correction toward the low side of the BBS channel, the low side of the wedge pattern,
the 100 average, previous price level support and Fibonacci level support. From that
point we then should have the last move up inside the wedge pattern, with a new higher
high index, possibly just above the 2130 Fibonacci target.".
Except for Monday, the daily moves were limited, but closing the week higher outside
the wedge pattern. The upper side of the pattern may give some support. There are
however a few indications pointing in the direction of the start of a possible move
down. There is a bearish engulfing candle pattern at the top, a lot of incertitude with
doji candles and the index reached exactly the 161.8% Fibonacci target projected from
the low in August and the top of the wave 3(E2) extended up reaction in September.
Indicators are topping and showing some divergence. Reason why I expect in first
instance a down retracement to the 100 average support and the low side of the
volatility channel.

Reblog (0)
October 31, 2015

Last week I wrote: "Last week I mentioned: "The index will probably start the coming
week with some limited higher prices for reaching the price resistance just above 2050,
the 100 and possibly the 200 day average and the upper side of the volatility channel.".
The week started with a small down reaction, but moved up Thursday and Friday a bit
above the expected level. If there will be a down reaction next week, watch the index
turning from the top of an up moving wedge pattern. With this pattern, we must expect
the index to break the lower side of the pattern. However, the wave count inside the
wedge pattern may not yet be complete. There may be one more down and up reaction,
Elliott wave 4 and 5 inside this pattern, before this wedge pattern ends. Anyway, we
first should expect a down reaction the coming week towards the low side of the wedge
pattern.".
Only a small move the past week, bouncing against the resistance of the upper side of
the wedge pattern, the R2 pivot resistance of the month and the upper side of the
volatility channel. For the coming week we should expect a down correction toward the
low side of the BBS channel, the low side of the wedge pattern, the 100 average,
previous price level support and Fibonacci level support. From that point we then
should have the last move up inside the wedge pattern, with a new higher high index,
possibly just above the 2130 Fibonacci target.

Reblog (0)
October 24, 2015

Last week I wrote: "Last week I commented: "I think some further move up is possible
towards a 2050 level, creating a larger 123 reaction wave. However shorter term on the
daily level I expect some down retracement first...". This is exactly what happened.
Until Wednesday there was a small down correction, followed by a move up, breaking
the previous top wave 3(E2), and as a result creating a new higher wave 3, close to the
expected 2050 level. The index will probably start the coming week with some limited
higher prices for reaching the price resistance just above 2050, the 100 and possibly the
200 day average and the upper side of the volatility channel. From that point we must
expect a reversal and a continuation of the long term down move.".
Last week I mentioned: "The index will probably start the coming week with some
limited higher prices for reaching the price resistance just above 2050, the 100 and
possibly the 200 day average and the upper side of the volatility channel.". The week
started with a small down reaction, but moved up Thursday and Friday a bit above the
expected level. If there will be a down reaction next week, watch the index turning from
the top of an up moving wedge pattern. With this pattern, we must expect the index to
break the lower side of the pattern. However, the wave count inside the wedge pattern
may not yet be complete. There may be one more down and up reaction, Elliott wave 4
and 5 inside this pattern, before this wedge pattern ends. Anyway, we first should
expect a down reaction the coming week towards the low side of the wedge pattern.

Reblog (0)
October 17, 2015

Last week I wrote: "Last week I wrote that the up correction might continue towards the
50 day average, a Fibonacci target around 1970, the median line of the up moving
pitchfork and the R1 pivot resistance. Actually it went a bit higher coming close to the
previous wave 3(E2) top price resistance. As I mentioned in the comments of the
weekly chart, I think some further move up is possible towards a 2050 level, creating a
larger 123 reaction wave. However shorter term on the daily level I expect some down
retracement first, but be prepared for a continuation of the up move without a correction
first. The next logical long term move would be a continuation of the long term down
move started in August. ".
Last week I commented: "I think some further move up is possible towards a 2050
level, creating a larger 123 reaction wave. However shorter term on the daily level I
expect some down retracement first...". This is exactly what happened. Until
Wednesday there was a small down correction, followed by a move up, breaking the
previous top wave 3(E2), and as a result creating a new higher wave 3, close to the
expected 2050 level. The index will probably start the coming week with some limited
higher prices for reaching the price resistance just above 2050, the 50 and possibly the
200 day average and the upper side of the volatility channel. From that point we must
expect a reversal and a continuation of the long term down move.

Reblog (0)
October 10, 2015

Last week I wrote: "The past week started with a large down candle and moving even a
bit lower on Tuesday, just not creating a lower low needed to create the wave 3.3 down.
An up correction was started. This up correction may continue up to the 50 day average,
a Fibonacci target around 1970, the median line of the up moving pitchfork, the R1
pivot resistance of the month and the upper side of the trading range. However,
indicators show a convergent move with higher bottoms. This should confirm a
continuation of the move down once the up correction is finished.".
Last week I wrote that the up correction might continue towards the 50 day average, a
Fibonacci target around 1970, the median line of the up moving pitchfork and the R1
pivot resistance. Actually it went a bit higher coming close to the previous wave 3(E2)
top price resistance. As I mentioned in the comments of the weekly chart, I think some
further move up is possible towards a 2050 level, creating a larger 123 reaction wave.
However shorter term on the daily level I expect some down retracement first, but be
prepared for a continuation of the up move without a correction first. The next logical
long term move would be a continuation of the long term down move started in August.

Reblog (0)
Sylvain Vervoort
October 3, 2015
Last week I wrote: "The (mainly Eastern) bulls were fighting to keep the index at high
levels, but lost again the past week with a lower index. The only up closing day was on
Monday. Thursday the index reached a previous low level, a Fibonacci target and the
low side of the BBS channel. With the support from previous lows, the Fibonacci target
and the low side of the BBS channel, a trading channel is formed. This may force a
move up inside this channel before a new low for wave 3.3 is formed. However we
must expect a further move down to the S1 support pivot target of the month, the low
side of the volatility channel and the 1850 Fibonacci target the coming week(s). ".
The past week started with a large down candle and moving even a bit lower on
Tuesday, just not creating a lower low needed to create the wave 3.3 down. An up
correction was started. This up correction may continue up to the 50 day average, a
Fibonacci target around 1970, the median line of the up moving pitchfork, the R1 pivot
resistance of the month and the upper side of the trading range. However, indicators
show a convergent move with higher bottoms. This should confirm a continuation of the
move down once the up correction is finished.

Reblog (0)
September 26, 2015

Last week I wrote: "Last week I wrote: "The week closed higher, but failed to break
resistance. Possibly the index will hit this resistance once more before continuing the
move down for the creation of wave 3.3.". This expected up move happened the first
half of the week, followed by the move down the end of the week. Finally closing the
week slightly lower. We now have a 123 correction wave with a confirmed bearish
harami candle pattern. This up correction is most probably an extended wave 2
correction for the large move down end of August. We now must expect a further move
down for wave 3.3. The minimum target is around 1850, this is the S1 pivot support of
the month, the previous low wave 3.2 and a Fibonacci target. The stochastic RSI is
making a convergent move, basically indicating a further move down after the up
correction.".
The (mainly Eastern) bulls were fighting to keep the index at high levels, but lost again
the past week with a lower index. The only up closing day was on Monday. Thursday
the index reached a previous low level, a Fibonacci target and the low side of the BBS
channel. With the support from previous lows, the Fibonacci target and the low side of
the BBS channel, a trading channel is formed. This may force a move up inside this
channel before a new low for wave 3.3 is formed. However we must expect a further
move down to the S1 support pivot target of the month, the low side of the volatility
channel and the 1850 Fibonacci target the coming week(s).

Reblog (0)
September 19, 2015

Last week I wrote: "After the Holiday on Monday the market made a move up. But
Tuesday the up move ended against the resistance of the upper side of the BBS band, a
previous price resistance and the PP pivot level of the month. The week closed higher,
but failed to break resistance. Possibly the index will hit this resistance once more
before continuing the move down for the creation of wave 3.3. The medium term down
target is 1730.".
Last week I wrote: "The week closed higher, but failed to break resistance. Possibly the
index will hit this resistance once more before continuing the move down for the
creation of wave 3.3.". This expected up move happened the first half of the week,
followed by the move down the end of the week. Finally closing the week slightly
lower. We now have a 123 correction wave with a confirmed bearish harami candle
pattern. This up correction is most probably an extended wave 2 correction for the large
move down end of August. We now must expect a further move down for wave 3.3.
The minimum target is around 1850, this is the S1 pivot support of the month, the
previous low wave 3.2 and a Fibonacci target. The stochastic RSI is making a
convergent move, basically indicating a further move down after the up correction.

Reblog (0)
September 12, 2015

Last week I wrote: "Last week I mentioned that we should expect a continuation of the
move down. And yes, the index closed this week some 3% down. Next breaking the
bottom of wave 3.2 will probably take a couple of weeks. But clearly we should expect
a move to the next down target around 1730, first passing the previous low of wave 3.2
at 1865 and the S1 pivot support of the month around 1850. The coming week I first
expect a further move down, probably followed by some correction. Closing the week
might be around the same level as the past week. ".
After the Holiday on Monday the market made a move up. But Tuesday the up move
ended against the resistance of the upper side of the BBS band, a previous price
resistance and the PP pivot level of the month. The week closed higher, but failed to
break resistance. Possibly the index will hit this resistance once more before continuing
the move down for the creation of wave 3.3. The medium term down target is 1730.

Reblog (0)
September 5, 2015
Last week I wrote: "You had to be patient the past week if you wanted to close open
long positions. Monday and Tuesday the index first made another large move down
reaching a one reference point Fibonacci projection (yellow lines). Next retracing the
complete down move the rest of the week. I mentioned the previous week: "start
thinking of closing open long positions during the next up correction". The good time to
do this was near the closing time on Thursday and Friday. We are close to a 50%
retracement of the down move now. There is some more room for the up correction to
the upper side of the BBS channel. But we should expect a continuation of the down
move. We better keep in mind that we most probably have started a longer term down
correction".
Last week I mentioned that we should expect a continuation of the move down. And
yes, the index closed this week some 3% down. Next breaking the bottom of wave 3.2
will probably take a couple of weeks. But clearly we should expect a move to the next
down target around 1730, first passing the previous low of wave 3.2 at 1865 and the S1
pivot support of the month around 1850. The coming week I first expect a further move
down, probably followed by some correction. Closing the week might be around the
same level as the past week.

Reblog (0)
August 30, 2015

Last week I wrote: "We first got the further small up move towards the upper side of the
BBS channel and the upper side of the downward pitchfork. Followed by the double
zigzag down, and faster than expected in just one week, we now have a valid wave 3.2
down. Most probably the index confirmed the long term reversal the past week. If you
are not out already, better start thinking of closing open long positions during the next
up correction. The index reached the 261.8% Fibonacci down projection over the last
wave 2 correction. The next down target for wave 3.3 (or 3.2) is around 1900".
You had to be patient the past week if you wanted to close open long positions. Monday
and Tuesday the index first made another large move down reaching a one reference
point Fibonacci projection (yellow lines). Next retracing the complete down move the
rest of the week. I mentioned the previous week: "start thinking of closing open long
positions during the next up correction". The good time to do this was near the closing
time on Thursday and Friday. We are close to a 50% retracement of the down move
now. There is some more room for the up correction to the upper side of the BBS
channel. But we should expect a continuation of the down move. We better keep in
mind that we most probably have started a longer term down correction.

Reblog (0)
August 22, 2015

Last week I wrote: "On Wednesday, the index went down as expected to break the 200
day average and down to the level of the S1 pivot support, close to the expected 2050.
That creates a valid wave 3 downwards. However not yet a wave 3.2 down. From that
point the index corrected upwards now finding resistance at the level of the PP pivot of
the month and the 50 and 100 average. There may be some further up move, up to the
upper side of the BBS channel and the upper side of the downward pitchfork. However
I rather expect a double zigzag down move creating the wave 3.2 down in a couple of
weeks".
We first got the further small up move towards the upper side of the BBS channel and
the upper side of the downward pitchfork. Followed by the double zigzag down, and
faster than expected in just one week, we now have a valid wave 3.2 down. Most
probably the index confirmed the long term reversal the past week. If you are not out
already, better start thinking of closing open long positions during the next up
correction. The index reached the 261.8% fibonacci down projection over the last wave
2 correction. The next down target for wave 3.3 (or 3.2) is around 1900.

Reblog (0)
August 15, 2015

Last week I wrote: "My assumption last week: "Because the last top is an extended
wave 2 correction for top wave 3.23, we can consider the down move that followed a
new wave 1. In that case, the up correction of the past week is possibly a new wave 2
correction and we should expect a wave down creating a new wave 3.2". We got a nice
move down most probably on the way creating a wave 3.2 down. Or at least a further
correction down for the extended wave E2. There is some support from previous price
levels and the 200 day average. Next support is at the low side of the volatility channel
and the S1 pivot support of the month around 2050".
On Wednesday, the index went down as expected to break the 200 day average and
down to the level of the S1 pivot support, close to the expected 2050. That creates a
valid wave 3 downwards. However not yet a wave 3.2 down. From that point the index
corrected upwards now finding resistance at the level of the PP pivot of the month and
the 50 and 100 average. There may be some further up move, up to the upper side of the
BBS channel and the upper side of the downward pitchfork. However I rather expect a
double zigzag down move creating the wave 3.2 down in a couple of weeks.

Reblog (0)
August 9, 2015
Last week I wrote: "The correction down was completed on Monday, exactly at the
level of the 200 day simple moving average. Because the last top is an extended wave 2
correction for top wave 3.23, we can consider the down move that followed a new wave
1. In that case, the up correction of the past week is possibly a new wave 2 correction
and we should expect a wave down creating a new wave 3.2. We are in the holiday;
season reason why I do not expect great changes the coming week(s). I assume there
will be a down correction the coming week, to complete a double zigzag correction in a
couple of weeks".
My assumption last week: "Because the last top is an extended wave 2 correction for top
wave 3.23, we can consider the down move that followed a new wave 1. In that case,
the up correction of the past week is possibly a new wave 2 correction and we should
expect a wave down creating a new wave 3.2". We got a nice move down most
probably on the way creating a wave 3.2 down. Or at least a further correction down for
the extended wave E2. There is some support from previous price levels and the 200
day average. Next support is at the low side of the volatility channel and the S1 pivot
support of the month around 2050.
You may like this: "Video - "One of the Most Useful Reports About Markets
You Will Ever Read".

Reblog (0)
August 1, 2015
Last week I wrote: "Last week I mentioned: "Is this up move an exaggerated reaction as
a result of the Greek agreement and will this remain a wave 2 correction, or should we
await a new higher top? The index is still within the limits, but at the top of the ongoing
distribution. There my be a small new top coming up, but you should be careful taking
any new long position. Make sure a possible up move is large enough. Personally I do
rather expect a move down the coming week". And yes, as expected, we had 4 days in a
row a move down, retracing the move up of the week before, falling back to a support
and resistance level of previous price levels, the median line of a downward pitchfork
and the PP pivot level of the month. There may be some correction but we should
expect a further move down creating a down wave 3.2.".
The correction down was completed on Monday, exactly at the level of the 200 day
simple moving average. Because the last top is an extended wave 2 correction for top
wave 3.23, we can consider the down move that followed a new wave 1. In that case,
the up correction of the past week is possibly a new wave 2 correction and we should
expect a wave down creating a new wave 3.2. We are in the holiday; season reason why
I do not expect great changes the coming week(s). I assume there will be a down
correction the coming week, to complete a double zigzag correction in a couple of
weeks.

Reblog (0)
July 25, 2015

Last week I wrote: "As I mentioned last week and as expected with a Greek agreement,
we have for the moment a large wave 2 correction past the 50 and 100 average, above
the R1 pivot of the month and out of the downward pitchfork. Is this an exaggerated
reaction as a result of the Greek agreement and will this remain a wave 2 correction, or
should we await a new higher top? The index is still within the limits, but at the top of
the ongoing distribution. There my be a small new top coming up, but you should be
careful taking any new long position. Make sure a possible up move is large enough.
Personally I do rather expect a move down the coming week".
Last week I mentioned: "Is this up move an exaggerated reaction as a result of the
Greek agreement and will this remain a wave 2 correction, or should we await a new
higher top? The index is still within the limits, but at the top of the ongoing distribution.
There my be a small new top coming up, but you should be careful taking any new long
position. Make sure a possible up move is large enough. Personally I do rather expect a
move down the coming week". And yes, as expected, we had 4 days in a row a move
down, retracing the move up of the week before, falling back to a support and resistance
level of previous price levels, the median line of a downward pitchfork and the PP pivot
level of the month. There may be some correction but we should expect a further move
down creating a down wave 3.2.
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oscillator in your analysis and trading.

Reblog (0)
July 18, 2015

Last week I wrote: "Tuesday and Wednesday the index reached a lower low for the
wave 3.1 down. And important we reached the median line of the down moving
pitchfork. This may be an indication for a longer term continuation of a down move
along the median line of the pitchfork. For now we first must await some further up
retracement to create a wave 2 correction. This will most probably brings the index to
the level of 100 and 50 day average and the upper side of the BBS band. The outcome
of a Grexit or not will certainly have an influence the coming week. This may be the
wave 2 correction I expect with a Greek agreement or if there is no agreement, a further
move down of wave 3.1".
As I mentioned last week and as expected with a Greek agreement, we have for the
moment a large wave 2 correction past the 50 and 100 average, above the R1 pivot of
the month and out of the downward pitchfork. Is this an exaggerated reaction as a result
of the Greek agreement and will this remain a wave 2 correction, or should we await a
new higher top? The index is still within the limits, but at the top of the ongoing
distribution. There my be a small new top coming up, but you should be careful taking
any new long position. Make sure a possible up move is large enough. Personally I do
rather expect a move down the coming week. You may be interested in reading the
Elliott Wave International article Unprecedented Extremes Indicate a Stock Market
Bubble in Trouble.

Reblog (0)
July 11, 2015

Last week I wrote: "Last week I mentioned: "On the other hand it looks like there is a
convergent move building between tops, which points in the direction of a further down
move. If this down move is confirmed, the index is on the way to a first wave 3.1 down.
This will bring the index back to the S1 pivot support of June and further to the median
line of the longer term downward pitchfork, the low side of the volatility channel and
the 200 day average". As you can see, it all happened already on Monday. The first
wave 3.1 down is a fact. From that point there is a logical up retracement, normally
creating a correction wave 2, reaching the new PP pivot level calculated on the past
month of June. Friday US markets were closed. I assume there will be a further up
retracement to the level of the 100 and 50 day average, normally followed by a
continuation of the down move".
Tuesday and Wednesday the index reached a lower low for the wave 3.1 down. And
important we reached the median line of the down moving pitchfork. This may be an
indication for a longer term continuation of a down move along the median line of the
pitchfork. For now we first must await some further up retracement to create a wave 2
correction. This will most probably bring the index to the level of 100 and 50 day
average and the upper side of the BBS band. The outcome of a Grexit or not will
certainly have an influence the coming week. This may be the wave 2 correction I
expect with a Greek agreement or if there is no agreement, a further move down of
wave 3.1.

Reblog (0)
July 5, 2015
Last week I wrote: "Last week I mentioned: "On the other hand it looks like there is a
convergent move building between tops, which points in the direction of a further down
move". It looks like this top will be confirmed with an extended correction wave 2 for
the last up wave 3.23. If this down move is confirmed the coming week, the index is on
the way to a first wave 3.1 down. This will bring the index back to the S1 pivot support
of June and further to the median line of the longer term downward pitchfork, the low
side of the volatility channel and the 200 day average. The possible creation of the wave
3.1 down would be a first strong indication that the distribution ends and the long term
down move has started. We have to wait for this wave 3.1 down to be sure that wave
3.23 up is a top wave for the longer term. Be prepared...".
Last week I mentioned: "On the other hand it looks like there is a convergent move
building between tops, which points in the direction of a further down move. If this
down move is confirmed, the index is on the way to a first wave 3.1 down. This will
bring the index back to the S1 pivot support of June and further to the median line of the
longer term downward pitchfork, the low side of the volatility channel and the 200 day
average". As you can see, it all happened already on Monday. The first wave 3.1 down
is a fact. From that point there is a logical up retracement, normally creating a
correction wave 2, reaching the new PP pivot level calculated on the past month of
June. Friday US markets were closed. I assume there will be a further up retracement to
the level of the 100 and 50 day average, normally followed by a continuation of the
down move.

Reblog (0)
June 27, 2015

Last week I wrote: "We had the retracement only on Monday, straight to the S1 pivot
support. Next 3 days an up correction followed by a retracement on Friday from the
resistance of the upper side of the slower downward pitchfork channel. I have to repeat
what I mentioned last week: a new higher high is still possible as a result of the hidden
divergence between the index and the indicators and the index not reaching the median
lines of the downward pitchforks. On the other hand it looks like there is a convergent
move building between tops, which points in the direction of a further down move", but
a move up with a new higher high for a wave 3.24 towards the R1 pivot level seems to
have a good chance".
Last week I mentioned: "On the other hand it looks like there is a convergent move
building between tops, which points in the direction of a further down move". It looks
like this top will be confirmed with an extended correction wave 2 for the last up wave
3.23. If this down move is confirmed the coming week, the index is on the way to a first
wave 3.1 down. This will bring the index back to the S1 pivot support of June and
further to the median line of the longer term downward pitchfork, the low side of the
volatility channel and the 200 day average. The possible creation of the wave 3.1 down
would be a first strong indication that the distribution ends and the long term down
move has started. We have to wait for this wave 3.1 down to be sure that wave 3.23 up
is a top wave for the longer term. Be prepared...

Reblog (0)
June 21, 2015

Last week I wrote: "I rather expect a small retracement followed by a continuation of
the down move towards the S1 pivot support, the median lines of the pitchforks and the
low side of the volatility channel". The index first made the down move towards the S1
pivot of the month coming close to the median line of the slower and faster downward
pitchforks and the low side of the volatility channel. Followed by a fast strong up move
to the upper side of the BBS channel and the upper side of the fast downward pitchfork.
Finally turning down on Friday back into the fast downward pitchfork. The scenario I
mentioned last week, a new higher high is still possible as a result of the hidden
divergence between the index and the indicators and the index not reaching the median
lines of the downward pitchforks. On the other hand it looks like there is a convergent
move building between tops, which points in the direction of a further down move after
the retracement towards the median lines of the pitchforks and the low side of the
volatility channel. Personally I think this has a better chance.
We had the retracement only on Monday, straight to the S1 pivot support. Next 3 days
an up correction followed by a retracement on Friday from the resistance of the upper
side of the slower downward pitchfork channel. I have to repeat what I mentioned last
week: a new higher high is still possible as a result of the hidden divergence between
the index and the indicators and the index not reaching the median lines of the
downward pitchforks. On the other hand it looks like there is a convergent move
building between tops, which points in the direction of a further down move", but a
move up with a new higher high for a wave 3.24 towards the R1 pivot level seems to
have a good chance.
Sylvain Vervoort: http://stocata.org/

Reblog (0)
June 13, 2015

Last week I wrote:
Last week I wrote: "For the coming week I expect a further move down towards the
levels of the longer term median line of the down moving pitchfork possibly towards
the low side of the volatility band and the low side of the trading range". The index
went down and reached the 100 average. You can see the possible creation of a hidden
divergence between the index and the indicators. I can see two possibilities. Either the
down move continues the coming week creating a convergent move, or an upswing is
coming with a hidden divergence that possibly will create a new higher wave 3.24, also
because the index is not reaching the median line of either the shorter or longer term
down moving pitchforks. I rather expect a small retracement followed by a continuation
of the down move towards the S1 pivot support, the median lines of the pitchforks and
the low side of the volatility channel.
Last comment I wrote: "I rather expect a small retracement followed by a continuation
of the down move towards the S1 pivot support, the median lines of the pitchforks and
the low side of the volatility channel". The index first made the down move towards the
S1 pivot of the month coming close to the median line of the slower and faster
downward pitchforks and the low side of the volatility channel. Followed by a fast
strong up move to the upper side of the BBS channel and the upper side of the fast
downward pitchfork. Finally turning down on Friday back into the fast downward
pitchfork. The scenario I mentioned last week, a new higher high is still possible as a
result of the hidden divergence between the index and the indicators and the index not
reaching the median lines of the downward pitchforks. On the other hand it looks like
there is a convergent move building between tops, which points in the direction of a
further down move after the retracement towards the median lines of the pitchforks and
the low side of the volatility channel. Personally I think this has a better chance.

Reblog (0)
June 6, 2015
Last week I wrote:
Last week I commented: "Distribution is ongoing with I guess a lower index the coming
week, falling back into the trading range". The index went down to support from the
level of the low side of the BBS band and the 50 day average. The index moves towards
the median line of the longer term downward pitchfork (red) and we can see a new
shorter term pitchfork (orange) showing a faster down move. For the coming week I
expect a further move down towards the levels of the longer term median line of the
down moving pitchfork possibly towards the low side of the volatility band and the low
side of the trading range.
Last week I mentioned: "For the coming week I expect a further move down towards
the levels of the longer term median line of the down moving pitchfork possibly
towards the low side of the volatility band and the low side of the trading range". The
index went down and reached the 100 average. You can see the possible creation of a
hidden divergence between the index and the indicators. I can see two possibilities.
Either the down move continues the coming week creating a convergent move, or an
upswing is coming with a hidden divergence confirmed that possibly will create a new
higher wave 3.24,also because the index is not reaching the median line of either the
shorter or longer term down moving pitchforks. I rather expect a small retracement
followed by a continuation of the down move towards the S1 pivot support, the median
lines of the pitchforks and the low side of the volatility channel.

Reblog (0)
May 30, 2015

Last week I wrote:
The index closes the week a fraction higher, enough to create a new top wave 3.23 with
only small moves the whole week. Monday, US markets are closed. Distribution is
ongoing with I guess a lower index the coming week, falling back into the trading
range. There will be support from the R1 pivot level, the low side of the BBS band, the
50 day average and the PP pivot level. I believe there is a good chance that this
distribution phase will end with a long term move down. Looking at action/reaction, I
expect a first reaction within a couple of weeks.
Last week I commented: "Distribution is ongoing with I guess a lower index the coming
week, falling back into the trading range". The index went down to support from the
level of the low side of the BBS band and the 50 day average. The index moves towards
the median line of the longer term downward pitchfork (red) and we can see a new
shorter term pitchfork (orange) showing a faster down move. For the coming week I
expect a further move down towards the levels of the longer term median line of the
down moving pitchfork possibly towards the low side of the volatility band and the low
side of the trading range.
Sylvain Vervoort: http://stocata.org/

Reblog (0)
May 23, 2015

Last week I wrote:
I mentioned last week: "I would not exclude a new small higher top the coming week".
And that is what happened, with an index high a fraction below the last top wave 3.22.
Once more there was first a correction back to the PP pivot level of the month, but the
up move from there closed the week a fraction higher. We are still in a longer term
distribution trading range. Considering the long term up move, the distribution may still
take more time. The index moved out of the down moving pitchfork, but should be
considered normal since the index moves within a horizontal trading range. For now we
should expect the index to remain in that trading range. Even a small new top is
possible. However, I assume that this distribution phase will end with a larger move
down. Be careful taking long positions now. I assume we will have a correction the
coming week within the trading range.
The index closes the week a fraction higher, enough to create a new top wave 3.23 with
only small moves the whole week. Monday, US markets are closed. Distribution is
ongoing with I guess a lower index the coming week, falling back into the trading
range. There will be support from the R1 pivot level, the low side of the BBS band, the
50 day average and the PP pivot level. I believe there is a good chance that this
distribution phase will end with a long term move down. Looking at action/reaction, I
expect a first reaction within a couple of weeks. HERE you can find my latest
comments on the EURUSD forex pair.

Technical Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
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Sylvain Vervoort
May 16, 2015
Last week I wrote:

The past week we had the same story as the week before. The index started with a
higher price on Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday the index retraced back to the median
line of the downward moving pitchfork (I changed the start of the median line),
finishing a 123 correction wave down. Thursday was the start of a new up move. We
have a convergent move with higher bottoms and higher tops. I would not exclude a
new small higher top the coming week.
I mentioned last week: "I would not exclude a new small higher top the coming week".
And that is what happened, with an index high a fraction below the last top wave 3.22.
Once more there was first a correction back to the PP pivot level of the month, but the
up move from there closed the week a fraction higher. We are still in a longer term
distribution trading range. Considering the long term up move, the distribution may still
take more time. The index moved out of the down moving pitchfork, but should be
considered normal since the index moves within a horizontal trading range. For now we
should expect the index to remain in that trading range. Even a small new top is
possible. However, I assume that this distribution phase will end with a larger move
down. Be careful taking long positions now. I assume we will have a correction the
coming week within the trading range.

Reblog (0)
May 9, 2015
Last week I wrote:
The index still moves mainly in a trading range. Monday there was a slightly higher
high top wave 3.22, but also the start of the retracement back into the trading range. The
index found support at the low side of the BBS channel, the 50 day average and the new
PP pivot level based on the price levels of the previous month of April. From that point
there was an up correction on Friday. There is a negative divergence between the index
and the Stochastic RSI. I have also drawn the latest possible down moving pitchfork. I
assume that the index will move further down towards the low side of the trading range,
the median line of the down moving pitchfork and the price support around 2040.
However, the trend is still in an up move inside the trading range with higher bottoms
and tops. So, we must not exclude the next higher top wave 3.23...
The past week we had the same story as the week before. The index started with a
higher price on Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday the index retraced back to the median
line of the downward moving pitchfork (I changed the start of the median line),
finishing a 123 correction wave down. Thursday was the start of a new up move. We
have a convergent move with higher bottoms and higher tops. I would not exclude a
new small higher top the coming week.

Reblog (0)
May 2, 2015
Last week I wrote:
Like I mentioned last week: "On the other hand we have to keep in mind that a triangle
is a continuation pattern. Here for a continuation of the up move. So, once more hard to
decide what can be expected the coming week". The triangle pattern wins the game with
a new higher high wave 3.22. The convergent move with higher tops and bottoms in
both the index and the Stochastic RSI is probably a good sign for a further move up de
coming week(s) and possibly a sign for a limited reaction only. Price is moving once
more back inside the up moving pitchfork and will find support on the level of previous
high levels and the R1 pivot resistance, now giving support.
The index still moves mainly in a trading range. Monday there was a slightly higher
high top wave 3.22, but also the start of retracing back into the trading range. The index
found support at the low side of the BBS channel, the 50 day average and the new PP
pivot level based on the price levels of the previous month of April. From that point
there was an up correction on Friday. There is a negative divergence between the index
and the Stochastic RSI. I have also drawn the latest possible down moving pitchfork. I
assume that the index will move further down towards the low side of the trading range,
the median line of the down moving pitchfork and the price support around 2040.
However, the trend is still in an up move inside the trading range with higher bottoms
and tops. So, we must not exclude the next higher top wave 3.23...

Reblog (0)
April 25, 2015

Last week I wrote:
The index still moves within the symmetrical triangle correction phase making a lower
top the past week, bouncing against the R1 pivot level of the month, and a larger move
down on Friday bringing the index back to the PP pivot support level. This last lower
top has a hidden divergence with a higher top in the stochastic RSI indicator. This is
basically an indication for a further move down to below the last wave 1 (3>2>1). We
can also draw a new fast moving down pitchfork. The S1 pivot support around 2030
would be the first down target. On the other hand we have to keep in mind that a
triangle is a continuation pattern. Here for a continuation of the up move. So, once more
hard to decide what can be expected the coming week. If I have to make a choice, I go
for a continuation of the down move the coming week.
Like I mentioned last week: "On the other hand we have to keep in mind that a triangle
is a continuation pattern. Here for a continuation of the up move. So, once more hard to
decide what can be expected the coming week". The triangle pattern wins the game with
a new higher high wave 3.22. The convergent move with higher tops and bottoms in
both the index and the Stochastic RSI is probably a good sign for a further move up the
coming week(s) and possibly a sign for a limited reaction only. Price is moving once
more back inside the up moving pitchfork and will find support on the level of previous
high levels and the R1 pivot resistance, now giving support.

Reblog (0)
April 18, 2015

Last week I wrote:
The expert turned green again on Friday, moving outside the down moving
pitchfork after an up move the past week. Difficult to predict what to expect the coming
week. The convergent move with lower tops and higher bottoms, a triangle correction
phase, may be either broken to the upper or lower side. For the upper side there is
resistance from the R1 pivot around 2110, the previous wave 2 top and the 3.21 wave
top. All is very close and a new top will not require too much effort. The convergent
move suggests a continuation of the up move after the consolidation phase we are in
now. Because we have a negative divergence, second time in a row, with the weekly
chart, we should not exclude that a long term top is reached, even after getting first a
new top the coming day(s)...
The index still moves within the symmetrical triangle correction phase making a lower
top the past week, bouncing against the R1 pivot level of the month, and a larger move
down on Friday bringing the index back to the PP pivot support level. This last lower
top has a hidden divergence with a higher top in the stochastic RSI indicator. This is
basically an indication for a further move down to below the last wave 1 (3>2>1). We
can also draw a new fast moving down pitchfork. The S1 pivot support around 2030
would be the first down target. On the other hand we have to keep in mind that a
triangle is a continuation pattern. Here for a continuation of the up move. So, once more
hard to decide what can be expected the coming week. If I have to make a choice, I go
for a continuation of the down move the coming week.

Reblog (0)
April 11, 2015

Last week I wrote:
As could be expected; there was a further up correction on Monday. Followed by a
further down move Tuesday and Wednesday. With finally a small move up back to the
50 day average resistance. I think we can repeat the comments of the previous week:
We still have a convergent move between the stochastic RSI and the index. That means
we should expect a further normal short term correction creating a wave 3.1 down to the
level of the S1 pivot support of the month, the 200 day average and the low side of the
volatility channel around 2015. The expert remains black.
The expert turned green again on Friday, moving outside the down moving
pitchfork after an up move the past week. Difficult to predict what to expect the coming
week. The convergent move with lower tops and higher bottoms, a triangle correction
phase, may be either broken to the upper or lower side. For the upper side there is
resistance from the R1 pivot around 2110, the previous wave 2 top and the 3.21 wave
top. All is very close and a new top will not require too much effort. The convergent
move suggests a continuation of the up move after the consolidation phase we are in
now. Because we have a negative divergence, second time in a row, with the weekly
chart, we should not exclude that a long term top is reached, even after getting first a
new top the coming day(s)...

Reblog (0)
April 4, 2015
Last week I wrote:
The previous top is not broken. We still have a convergent move between the stochastic
RSI and the index. That means we should expect a further normal short term
correction creating a wave 3.1 down to the level of the S1 pivot support of the month,
the 200 day average and the low side of the volatility channel around 2015. The
expert turned black.
A one day shorter trading week. May this Easter holiday bring you all together with lots
of joy, happiness and of course a lot of (Belgian) chocolates for the kids!
As could be expected; there was a further up correction on Monday. Followed by a

further down move Tuesday and Wednesday. With finally a small move up back to the
50 day average resistance. I think we can repeat the comments of the previous week:
We still have a convergent move between the stochastic RSI and the index. That means
we should expect a further normal short term correction creating a wave 3.1 down to the
level of the S1 pivot support of the month, the 200 day average and the low side of the
volatility channel around 2015. The expert remains black.
Stocks & Commodities magazine published the READERS' CHOICE AWARDS for
2015. Two FAVORITE ARTICLE semi-finalist awards are for my articles "Creating A
Trading Strategy, Part 3" and "Exploring Charting Techniques, Part 1". First Runner-Up
is "Swing Trading With Sylvain Vervoort" an interview from Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan.
Thanks to all for voting.

Reblog (0)
March 28, 2015

Last week I wrote:
The some more retracement we talked about last week, is larger than expected. We are
at a point where the chance for breaking the previous top is more realistic than a turn
down. The hidden divergence with a lower bottom in the stochastic RSI and the higher
bottom in the index will most probably push the index above the previous top wave
3.21. This may be the continuation of the long term up move. But if on the other hand
we are near a long term top, we should see a negative divergence with a higher top in
the index and a lower top in the stochastic RSI.
The previous top is not broken. We still have a convergent move between the stochastic
RSI and the index. That means we should expect a further normal short term
correction creating a wave 3.1 down to the level of the S1 pivot support of the month,
the 200 day average and the low side of the volatility channel around 2015. The
expert turned black.

Reblog (0)
March 22, 2015

Last week I wrote:
Only a small retracement on Monday, followed by a move down to the low side of the
up moving pitchfork, a reaction back to the PP pivot point of the month and once more
down to the low side of the pitchfork and the 100 day average. There is a hidden
divergence between the index and the stochastic RSI. Basically this means that we
should have some retracement, followed by a further move down. This move down is
also close to being confirmed in the weekly chart. It is still early to say that a longer
term reaction is started, but there are signs already. Next week probably some more
retracement, but a further down move after that.
The some more retracement we talked about last week, is larger than expected. We are
at a point where the chance for breaking the previous top is more realistic than a turn
down. The hidden divergence with a lower bottom in the stochastic RSI and the higher
bottom in the index will most probably push the index above the previous top wave
3.21. This may be the continuation of the long term up move. But if on the other hand
we are near a long term top, we should see a negative divergence with a higher top in
the index and a lower top in the stochastic RSI.

Reblog (0)
March 14, 2015

Last week I wrote:
As expected a move down, reaching the median line of the up moving pitchfork,
coming close to the PP pivot of the month of March, the 50 average and price support.
Probably enough support to create some pullback the coming week. I doubt if the index
is already starting a longer term down correction. There is no negative divergence
between the index and the indicators. That may indicate that another top is possible the
coming weeks after the current retrace.
Only a small retrace on Monday, followed by a move down to the low side of the up
moving pitchfork, a reaction back to the PP pivot point of the month and once more
down to the low side of the pitchfork and the 100 day average. There is a hidden
divergence between the index and the stochastic RSI. Basically this means that we
should have some retracement, followed by a further move down. This move down is
also close to being confirmed in the weekly chart. It is still early to say that a longer
term reaction is started, but there are signs already. Next week probably some more
retrace, but a further down move after that.
is "Swing Trading With Sylvain Vervoort" an interview from Jayanthi Gopalakirishnan.
Thanks to all voters.

Reblog (0)
March 7, 2015
Last week I wrote:
Even we are closing lower this week, the index managed to finally reach the long term
Fibonacci target at 2114. We are falling back to the R2 pivot resistance, now support, of
the month of February. Indicators are topping and turning down. We should expect at
least some further reaction down and do not forget that every long term correction
started with a common short term retrace.
As expected a move down, reaching the median line of the up moving pitchfork,
coming close to the PP pivot of the month of March, the 50 average and price support.
Probably enough support to create some pullback the coming week. I doubt if the index
is already starting a longer term down correction. There is no negative divergence
between the index and the indicators. That may indicate that another top is possible the
coming weeks after the current retrace.

Reblog (0)
February 28, 2015

Last week I wrote:
As expected with the daily chart, the index reached the upper side of the up moving
pitchfork, the R2 pivot resistance of the month and out of a smaller and larger trading
range, creating a new higher top wave 3.21. It looks like only the sky is the limit. We
have a new convergent higher top between price and the indicators. It looks like this is
still not the end of the move up. However we must expect some reaction down the
coming weeks.
Even we are closing lower this week, the index managed to finally reach the long term
Fibonacci target at 2114. We are falling back to the R2 pivot resistance, now support, of
the month of February. Indicators are topping and turning down. We should expect at
least some further reaction down and do not forget that every long term correction
started with a common short term retrace.
http://stocata.org/

Reblog (0)
February 21, 2015

Last week I wrote:
The downward pitchfork was not confirmed. I have drawn a new one in the upward
direction. The index is now reaching the upper side of this pitchfork, moving out of the
horizontal trading range on Thursday, possibly ending the week in a new larger trading
range with on the upper side the tops 3.20 and 3.21 and at the lower side downward
bottoms 3.1 and 3.2. However, this will depend if a reaction down starts the coming
week. The incredible 21 tops in a row, will possibly move a bit higher reaching the R2
pivot of the month before starting a reaction. Remember the Fibonacci target at 2114?
We are coming very close...
As expected with the daily chart, the index reached the upper side of the up moving
pitchfork, the R2 pivot resistance of the month and out of a smaller and larger trading
range, creating a new higher top wave 3.21. It looks like only the sky is the limit. We
have a new convergent higher top between price and the indicators. It looks like this is
still not the end of the move up. However we must expect some reaction down the
coming weeks.

Reblog (0)
February 14, 2015

Trading with my new Modified Renko bars
I have been working on my own modified renko bars for Metatrader4. I have also
created an indicator and expert system to trade using these bars. Here is an example
over the past two weeks for the EURUSD forex pair.
Below my modified renko chart with a box size of 16 pips and an offset of 4 pips.
Below the chart the new renko count indicator showing buy and sell signals. I extended
the signal with green (buy) and red (sell) indications on the renko bar chart. All trades
are profitable, except the one buy and sell around February 9. You can avoid these
losing trades.
The short horizontal red line are the first two resistance points of a possible start of a
trading range. Once moving back up from a low, you can draw the horizontal green line
and program it to only enter a new trade when the top of the trading range is broken by
a closing price. And once you have the low of the trading range confirmed, you can
draw the horizontal red line and program it to go short only if broken to the down side
by a closing price. That way the two losing trades can be avoided and all remaining
trades are profitable. There is even a good chance to close the short trade before
February 9 with a better profit, closing it at the low side of the trading range.

Reblog (0)

Last week I wrote:
I changed the pitchfork to be more in line with the current price move. This pitchfork
needs to be confirmed the coming days. The index is clearly moving in a volatile
horizontal trading range. We reached the top of the trading range and moved back into
the trading channel on Friday. We can assume that the index will move back down to
the low side of the trading range and the 200 day moving average. Medium term I
expect a further down move with targets at 1960 and 1925.
The downward pitchfork was not confirmed. I have drawn a new one in the upward
direction. The index is now reaching the upper side of this pitchfork, moving out of the
horizontal trading range on Thursday, possibly ending the week in a new larger trading
range with on the upper side the tops 3.20 and 3.21 and at the lower side downward
bottoms 3.1 and 3.2. However, this will depend if a reaction down starts the coming
week. The incredible 21 tops in a row, will possibly move a bit higher reaching the R2
pivot of the month before starting a reaction. Remember the Fibonacci target at 2114?
We are coming very close...

Reblog (0)
February 7, 2015
Last week I wrote:
The week before I wrote: For a further down move, there better will be no more up
move the coming week". It looks this was understood by the index and confirmed with
more than 50 points down. Price already reached the median line of a new fast down
moving pitchfork. Price is at a support level and some small up reaction is possible, but
I expect a further down move with targets at 1960 and 1925. Note that there is a
negative divergence between the index and the indicators.
I changed the pitchfork to be more in line with the current price move. This pitchfork
needs to be confirmed the coming days. The index is clearly moving in a volatile
horizontal trading range. We reached the top of the trading range and moved back into
the trading channel on Friday. We can assume that the index will move back down to
the low side of the trading range and the 200 day moving average. Medium term I
expect a further down move with targets at 1960 and 1925.

Reblog (0)
January 31, 2015

Last week I wrote:
As expected, there was a further correction move up to the upper side of the BBS
channel, with a first reaction down on Friday. We have a retracement for wave 3.1
between 38.2% and 23.6%. This is a large retracement. More than this there is a good
chance that a new top will be created. For a further down move, there better will be no
more up move the coming week. If the index moves down the coming week, we should
expect a further move down towards the 100 and 200 day moving average around 1960
and next the S2 pivot level and the 161.8% Fibonacci target at 1920 the coming weeks.
Last week I wrote: "For a further down move, there better will be no more up move the
coming week". It looks this was understood by the index and confirmed with more than
50 points down. Price already reached the median line of a new fast down moving
pitchfork. Price is at a support level and some small up reaction is possible, but I expect
a further down move with targets at 1960 and 1925. Note that there is a negative
divergence between the index and the indicators.

Reblog (0)
January 24, 2015

Last week I wrote:
As I wrote last week "From that point, an up correction towards the upper side of the
pitchfork and the upper side of the BBS band was started. I assume this is the end of this
short time reaction...". That was a correct assumption with the S&P 500 moving down
the past week from Monday till Thursday. Friday created a pullback from the support of
the S1 pivot reference of the month. A first wave 3 (3.1) down has been created. Logical
now would be some more pull-up towards the upper side of the down moving pitchfork
and the upper side of the BBS channel. After that correction, I believe there will be a
further move down towards the 200 day moving average around 1960 and next the S2
pivot level and the 161.8% Fibonacci target at 1920.
As expected, there was a further correction move up to the upper side of the BBS
channel, with a first reaction down on Friday. We have a retracement for wave 3.1
between 38.2% and 23.6%. This is a large retracement. More than this there is a good
chance that a new top will be created. For a further down move, there better will be no
more up move the coming week. If the index moves down the coming week, we should
expect a further move down towards the 100 and 200 day moving average around 1960
and next the S2 pivot level and the 161.8% Fibonacci target at 1920 the coming weeks.

Reblog (0)
January 17, 2015

Last week I wrote:
The index went already below 2000 and found support at the level of the S1 pivot
support of the month, the 100 days active average and the median line of the down
moving pitchfork. From that point, an up correction towards the upper side of the
short time reaction and ready for a further move down, in first instance to the 200 days
active simple moving average around 1950 or probably to the S2 pivot support at 1920.
The last historical Fibonacci projection has a 161.8% target at 1930.
As I wrote last week "From that point, an up correction towards the upper side of the
short time reaction...". That was a correct assumption with the S&P 500 moving down
the past week from Monday till Thursday. Friday created a pullback from the support of
the S1 pivot reference of the month. A first wave 3 (3.1) down has been created. Logical
now would be some more pull-up towards the upper side of the down moving pitchfork
and the upper side of the BBS channel. After that correction, I believe there will be a
further move down towards the 200 day moving average around 1960 and next the S2
pivot level and the 161.8% Fibonacci target at 1920.

Reblog (0)
January 10, 2015

Last week I wrote:
With the candlestick hanging man pattern in the monthly chart we have to be
careful and watch if this negative pattern is going to be confirmed. That could be the
start of a longer term correction move. In this daily chart there is a negative reversal
divergence between the index and the stochastic RSI indicator. We have a new
downward pitchfork channel. The next couple of weeks will be important. Watch your
profit, wave top 3.20 may be the the highest top for some time. I expect a first move
down towards the 200 day average around 1950.
The index went already below 2000 and found support at the level of the S1 pivot
support of the month, the 100 days active average and the median line of the down
moving pitchfork. From that point, an up correction towards the upper side of the
short time reaction and ready for a further move down, in first instance to the 200 days
active simple moving average around 1950 or probably to the S2 pivot support at 1920.
The last historical Fibonacci projection has a 161.8% target at 1930.

I continua al web http://blog.traderslibrary.com/traders-library/sylvain-vervoort/page/8/

Sylvain Vervoot de La Revista

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March 30, 2018

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March 24, 2018

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March 17, 2018

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December 30, 2017

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December 16, 2017

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November 25, 2017

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November 11, 2017

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October 28, 2017

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Sylvain Vervoort http://stocata.org/

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October 15, 2017

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September 23, 2017

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September 16, 2017

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Posted by Sylvain Vervoort on September 3, 2017 at 07:41 AM in Sylvain Vervoort,

August 26, 2017

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August 20, 2017

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August 12, 2017

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July 29, 2017

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July 22, 2017

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July 15, 2017

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June 24, 2017

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June 18, 2017

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