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Executive Summary
When it comes to health insurance, Illinois By adopting HSA/CDHPs, these costs can
September 29, 2010
Jim Porterfield is a healthcare/HSA policy analyst based in Illinois. Kristina Rasmussen is executive vice president of the Illinois
Policy Institute.
Page 2 of 26
plans, the Quality Care Health Plan (QCHP) than the consumer price index for all urban
and an HMO-style managed plan. According consumers.2
to the 2011 Segal Health Plan Cost Trend Survey
released September 16, 2010, all 2011 medical The Illinois Commission on Government
plan types are projected to experience cost Forecasting and Accountability’s March 2010
trends that are more than eight times higher report3 notes that individual employees pay
cost-effective Employee
Plus 1 20,405 24% $922.15 $60.00 $94.95 $1,077.10 14.4%
health Dependent
Employee
insurance Only
33,591 40% $526.86 $60.00 $586.86 10.2%
* A Non-Medicare Plus 2+ category which represents the number of dependents for both Medicare and Non-Medicare retirees was not
included in the analysis because it was not possible to separate out dependents for only Non-Medicare Retirees.
Source: Compiled from Freedom of Information Act requests submitted by the Illinois Policy Institute
Page 3 of 26
about 11.0 percent of medical premium costs. but again, the monthly contribution from the
Actual premium costs for fiscal year 2011, as retiree for the dependent stayed the same ($196
indicated in Graphic 1, show that employees per month.)4
with one dependent pay 14.4 percent (HMOs) Given the
to 20.3 percent (QCHPs) of the total cost. According to the Illinois Commission on
Employees with two dependents pay 13.7 Government Forecasting and Accountability financial
percent (HMOs) to 19.4 percent (QCHPs) of
the cost. Non-Medicare retirees pay an average
(CGFA), the cost per participant in the
State Employees’ Group Insurance Program
realities
of $12.57 (HMOs) or $13.98 (QCHPs) per increased by 72 percent between fiscal year of these
month—or only 2.0 percent and 1.56 percent, 2003 and fiscal year 2011, going from $3,735 to
respectively—of the premium cost. $6,449 per person.5 challenging
Health care coverage for state employees and Given the financial realities of these challenging
economic
non-Medicare retirees is a significant budget economic times, addressing rising civil service times,
item. Including individuals and those with one health care costs is a critical issue for state
dependent, there are 18,054 non-Medicare lawmakers. addressing
retirees with QCHP plans and 19,187 with rising civil
HMOs. The state subsidizes the full cost of The Solution
the premiums for non-Medicare retirees if they One way to solve the problem of rising civil service health
have 20 or more years of service, but their service health care costs is to offer a Health
dependents must pay part of the premium. Savings Account-eligible insurance option to
care costs
Illinois state employees and retirees. is a critical
Employee premium sharing has not always
increased proportionately with premium The benefits of expanding the health insurance issue for state
increases. For example, in fiscal year 2011, the
Health Alliance HMO for retirees with one
options of State of Illinois employees to
include a Health Savings Account-eligible plan
lawmakers.
dependent increased its premium by 8 percent are twofold:
(from $1,250 to $1,350 per month), but the
monthly contribution from the retiree for the 1. State employees will benefit from the
dependent stayed the same ($94 per month). choice of a plan that comes with lower
The total QCHP premium for non-Medicare premiums and the potential to increase
retirees with one dependent increased 15 take-home pay, while maintaining access
percent (from $1,639 to $1,885 per month), to quality care.
Graphic 2. Annual Cost Per Participant in the Group Health Insurance Program
2. Illinois’s budget will benefit from cost is expected to pay health costs incurred up
savings. to the deductible out of their own pocket—
primarily from the Health Savings Account.
What is an HSA?
According to the Internal Revenue Service, the
As defined by the U.S. Department of the minimum annual deductible of a CDHP for
Treasury: 2011 is $1,200 for individuals and $2,400 for
families (these limits are adjusted annually for
A Health Savings Account is an inflation). After the deductible is reached, and
alternative to traditional health depending upon how the policy is structured,
insurance; it is a savings product that the consumer may have to pay co-pays similar
offers a different way for consumers to to an ordinary insurance plan. The maximum
pay for their health care. HSAs enable annual deductible and other out-of-pocket
you to pay for current health expenses expenses limit for 2011 is $5,950 for individuals
and save for future qualified medical and $11,900 for families (these limits are
and retiree health expenses on a tax- adjusted annually for inflation), although in
free basis. many cases the limits are much lower. The ideal
plan would eliminate co-pays and co-insurance
Owners of a Health Savings Account may and make the maximum out-of-pocket limit the
deposit pre-tax dollars into their account. same amount as the deductible.
These funds can in turn be used to pay for
approved medical expenses, including doctor HSA/CDHP plans first became available in
Funds in visit co-pays, prescription drugs, surgery costs, 2004. Well-structured HSA-qualified CDHPs
and therapy. In 2010 and 2011, individuals have kept premium increases fairly low, from
Health can make a maximum contribution to their 1.0 to 3.5 percent per year, while traditional
Savings Health Savings Account of $3,050. For family
coverage, the maximum contribution is $6,150.6
PPO and HMO increases have tended to
average between 5 and 10 percent per year.
Accounts In many instances, the employer will make a According to the U.S. Department of the
contribution to the account, and the employee Treasury, “An CDHP generally costs less than
accumulate may make up the rest until the yearly maximum what traditional health care coverage costs,
over time, is reached. so the money that you save on insurance
can therefore be put into the Health Savings
earn interest Unlike Flexible Spending Accounts, unused Account.”
funds don’t “disappear” at the end of the year.
tax-free, Rather, funds in Health Savings Accounts Approximately 10 million Americans
and can even accumulate over time, earn interest tax-free, and nationwide are now covered by HSA/CDHP
can even be willed to surviving beneficiaries. products, up 25 percent from January 2009.7 In
be willed to Here’s how the U.S. Department of the Illinois, 574,553 people were covered by Health
surviving Treasury describes HSA ownership: Savings Account-eligible plans as of January
2010, up from 383,922 enrollees two years
beneficiaries. You own and you control the money in prior.
your HSA. Decisions on how to spend
the money are made by you without Graphic 3. Total Illinois Enrollment
relying on a third party or a health in HSA/CDHP Plans and as a
insurer. You will also decide what Percentage of Total Enrollment in
types of investments to make with the Private Health Insurance
money in the account in order to make
it grow. Total Enrollment Percentage
HSAs vs. Traditional Approaches much it might cost. However, when the money
is in the hands of the consumers, making
The traditional approach of having four health them responsible for paying the bills for non-
care plans in one turns out to be an increasingly insurable events, behavior patterns change During the
expensive proposition. A base plan starts out instantly.
with major medical coverage. Over the years, first year
office visit plans, prescription drug plans and
lab/procedure plans have been rolled into the
HSAs in the Hoosier State
the Health
original plan. Graphic 4 shows an example of Take Indiana as an example. Indiana’s success Savings
how these plans each add costs to the base with Health Savings Accounts for government
major medical plan, eventually amounting to up workers should be instructive to Illinois. Upon Account
to 55 percent of the total premium cost.8 entering office, Indiana Governor Mitch
Daniels directed the state to add a Health
option was
To put it simply, why would anyone pay $80 per Savings Account option to its conventional offered in
month or $960 per year just to have an office health insurance offerings.11
visit co-pay plan, which requires them to then 2006, just
plunk down $20 per office visit on top of the For Indiana employees electing the HSA 4 percent of
$960 per year they paid in premium to be able option, the state covers the plan’s premium
to do so? Just two doctor visits per year would and deposits $2,750 into an account controlled employees
actually cost a person $1,000 per year under the by the employee. The funds can then be used
traditional approach. If each office visit truly to pay health bills. Unused funds belong
signed up. In
costs only $100, then under the HSA/CDHP to the individual worker; more than $30 2010, over
approach, the cost could be paid out of the million—about $2,000 per employee—are in
Health Savings Account and that person would the accounts. For employees who use up their 70 percent
still be $800 ahead. Even a family of four, with
each person making two office visits per year,
entire account balance (in 2009, this amounted
to only 6 percent of employees), the state
of 30,000
would pay only $800 with the HSAs (for a total further shared health costs up to the out-of- Indiana state
of 8 office visits). The HSA/CDHP would save pocket maximum of $8,000; beyond this, the
them $320 compared to using a “traditional” employee’s care is completely covered by the workers chose
PPO or HMO, which include $20 office visit
co-pays that in reality would cost a total of
plan. the HSA.
$1,120. During the first year the Health Savings
Account option was offered in 2006, just 4
Moreover, what many consumers have not percent of employees signed up. In 2010, over
recognized is that third-party payment of 70 percent of 30,000 Indiana state workers
non-insurable events is the cause of rising chose the HSA. Only 3 percent have opted to
premiums.10 As long as someone else is paying switch back to a standard PPO offering after
for care, money is no object. In this system, enrolling with an HSA, indicating a high level
the consumer rarely questions whether a test of satisfaction.
or procedure or pill is truly needed or how
Graphic 4. Relative Costs of Traditional Healthcare
Plans vs. HSA/CDHP Approaches9
Traditional Approach: Four Plans in One HSA/CDHP Approach
Buy CDHP only Put Rest in HSA
Major Medical Plan $180 $180
Office Visit Plan $80 $80
Prescription Plan $80 $80
Lab/Procedure Plan $60 $60
Monthly Totals $400/mo $180/mo $220/mo
Annual Totals $4800/year $2,160/year $2,640/year
Page 6 of 26
Indiana state employees enrolled in the HSA participants were denying themselves needed
option will save more than $8 million in 2010 care in order to save money.
compared to workers in the PPO option.
Governor Daniels notes that Health Savings Federal Government and Other States
Accounts allow workers to add thousands
of dollars to their take-home pay, which is Indiana isn’t alone in offering its employees a
especially important in years when the state has consumer-driven health insurance choice; the
delayed salary increases due to tight budgets. federal government also offers a Health Savings
Account option to its employees.12
Indiana’s employees are not the only ones
benefiting from the Health Savings Accounts; In addition, according to a 2009 survey of
they’ll help save the state at least $20 million health benefits by The Segal Company, 17
in 2010. Mercer Consulting, an independent states offer a Consumer Directed Health Plan
health care consulting firm, estimates that to state employees.13 These plans may or may
Indiana will save 11 percent on its total health not be paired with a Health Savings Account
care costs, thanks to the HSA option. plan. In the Midwest region, 4 out of 12 states
offer Consumer Directed Health Plans.
Health Savings Accounts have a demonstrable
impact on behavior. Indiana found that in 2009, A July 2010 survey conducted by the Illinois
state workers with HSAs visited emergency Policy Institute found that the 19 states
rooms and physicians 67 percent less frequently indicated in Graphic 5 offered a CDHP and/
than co-workers in traditional care. HSA or an HSA to state workers. It’s worth noting
Indiana’s holders were more likely to use generic drugs, that employees with an HSA-eligible health
and they were admitted to hospitals less than plan can still set up a health savings account
HSA half as often as colleagues with traditional even if one is not directly arranged by the state
participants coverage. In sum, HSA participants incurred
$65 in costs for every $100 incurred by
(although a state-arranged HSA can be useful
in streamlining regular payroll deductions
incurred $65 associates who kept the old coverage. The to the account). Not all states offer HSA
growth in HSA participation rates, meanwhile, contributions as generous as Indiana’s plan, but
in costs for suggests that users are more than happy with the increased choices still benefit state workers.
every $100 the HSA coverage and that it meets their health
care needs. Plans Meet Taxpayer Action Board Recommendations
incurred by
Governor Mitch Daniels believes that good In its June 2009 report on identifying budgetary
associates incentives go a long way toward positively savings, the Illinois Taxpayer Action Board
who kept the impacting behavior, and therefore, cost: recommended a number of strategies for
containing state employee healthcare costs,14
old coverage. It turns out that, when someone is including:
spending his own money alone for
routine expenses, he is far more likely • Addressing the significant cost differential
to ask the questions he would ask if between the QCHP and the other plan
purchasing any other good or service: offerings;
“Is there a generic version of that • Modifying plan design, such as changing
drug?” “Didn’t I take that same test deductible amounts, copayments, and out-
just recently?” “Where can I get the of-pocket maximums;
colonoscopy at the best price?” • Modifying behaviors in ways that further
benefit the state and covered individuals
It is important to note that lower costs do not (e.g., encourage use of primary care
indicate lower levels of health care. Mercer physicians over emergency rooms); and
Consulting, the group that studied Indiana’s • Offering premiums linked to coverage
plan, could find no evidence that HSA levels, with the option of lower premiums
with more responsibility for costs.
Page 7 of 26
savings (available for deficit reduction) would have if the state fully subsidized the
over 6 years compared to 2011’s costs. QCHPs/HMOs. On average, this would be
• A total of $18 billion is saved over 13 true for Option 2 as well (with the exception
years compared to projected cost curves. of the employee with 2 dependents, who would Option 2
• Average taxpayer saves $3,481 over 13 have a slightly negative cash position by 2020).
years. is shown as
• State employees and NMRs save an Option 1 is unlikely to be adopted because one possible
average of $8,625 to $17,385 on FICA employees and NMRs will perceive little or
and federal income taxes over 10 years. no benefit from the HSAs, as they all would midpoint
State employees and NMRs have an have an average of $0 in the HSAs after 10
•
average of $2,110 (employee only) up years due to the low level (15 percent) of
where
to $48,866 (employee + 1 dependent) state dollars contributed to the HSAs. Non- taxpayers,
in their HSAs after medical expenses in Medicare retirees would find themselves in an
years 2011 and 2020, respectively. They increasingly negative cash position each year employees,
could also contribute the other 10 percent
to the HSA and put an additional $1,000
compared to their current position, where
the state fully subsidizes the HMO/QCHP
non-Medicare
per year of their own money into the premiums for those with 20 or more years of retirees and
HSAs if they are age 55 and older. service. There would, however, be noticeable
• Cumulative savings on premiums for premium savings for any dependents they the state’s
dependents of these employees and
NMRs could range from $12,700 up to
might have on the HSA/CDHP plans. budget can
$34,991 over 10 years. Option 2 is shown as one possible midpoint all see real
where taxpayers, employees, non-Medicare
Options 1 and 3 are generally on the upper retirees and the state’s budget can all see real benefits.
and lower ends of offerings to consider for benefits. Analysis of the various options in
HSA/CDHPs. Employees and NMRs would Graphic 6 suggests there may be a win-win
find Option 3 to be quite attractive because target zone for the state to fund somewhere
of the average positive cash position, which between 60 to 90 percent of the maximum
leaves more money in their pockets each year allowable contribution to the HSAs, pay 80
from the state contribution to the HSAs (after to 90 percent of the premium, and still find
subtracting average medical expenses and their budgetary savings for the next 11 to 13 years.
10 percent of the CDHP premium) than they This is compared to the base of $1.574 billion
$107 $10,000
$100
$0
$0 $0 $0
% State contributes to HSAs
100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15%
Graphic
Graphic 7. Option
7. Option 1 State
1 State Contributes 15%
Contributes 15%to
toHSAs
HSAsand Employees
and Pay Pay
Employees 30%30%
of CDHP Premiums
of CDHP Premiums
5000
Savings
4939
available for
4000 Deficit
Option 1 Reduction
Taxpayers Avoid
Under Option 1, after average medical
1,000,000 $/year
Total State
3000
$27 Funds to expenses, employees will have an average
Billion in Taxes HSAs of $0 in their HSAs after 10 years and will
2000 State saves $9.2 billion over 13 years have a negative cash position of
CDHP -$17,000 to -$28,000 from paying 30
640 597 553 506 457
Premiums
1574
915 886 855 824 790 755 718 680 113 $/yr percent of the premiums.
109 110 111 112
1000
106 107 108
101 102 103 104 105
1003
955
910
866
825
786
748
713
2015 679
2014 647
2013 616
2012 586
2011 558
Total
0 HMO/QCHP
2011
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2023
Prem in 2011
& Est. 2023
Graphic 8. Option
Graphic 2 State
8. Option 2 StateContributes 65%toto
Contributes 65% HSAs
HSAs andand Employees
Employees Pay of
Pay 20% 20% of CDHP
CDHP Premiums
Premiums
5000
Savings
4939
available for
4000 Deficit
Option 2 Reduction
Taxpayers Avoid Under Option 2, after average medical
1,000,000 $/year
Total State
3000
$21 Funds to expenses, employees will have an average
Billion in Taxes HSAs of $14,000 to $29,000 in their HSAs after
2000 State saves $3.2 billion over 11 years 10 years and most will have a positive cash
53 0 0 CDHP position.
208 159 107
500 463 425 386 344 301 256 486 491 Premiums
1574
Total
0
HMO/QCHP
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2023
Prem in 2011
& Est. 2023
Graphic 9. Option
Graphic 3 State
9. Option 3 StateContributes 90%toto
Contributes 90% HSAs
HSAs andand Employees
Employees Pay of
Pay 10% 10% of CDHP
CDHP Premiums
Premiums
5000
Savings
4939
available for
4000 Deficit
Option 3 Reduction
Taxpayers Avoid Under Option 3, after average medical
1,000,000 $/year
Total State
3000 $18 Funds to expenses, employees will have an average
Billion in Taxes HSAs of $24,000 to $49,000 in their HSAs after
State saves $0.8 billion over 6 years
2000 0 0 0 10 years and most will have positive cash
0 0 0
167 121 73 680 23 0 CDHP positions ranging from $18,000 to $42,000.
252 210 666 673
647 653 660 Premiums
1574
Total
0
HMO/QCHP
2011
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2023
Prem in 2011
& Est. 2023
Page 11 of 26
Graphic 10. Summary of Potential Results for State of Illinois Employees and Non-Medicare
Retirees Using HSAs/CDHPs Instead of Current HMOs/QCHPs
Option 1 Option 2 Option 3
More Benefit to State Budget, Less Less Benefit to State Budget,
Benefit to Employee with HSA/ Mid-Range Option with HSA/CDHP More Benefit to Employee with HSA/
Assumptions CDHP Employee pays 30% Employee pays 20% of Prem CDHP Employee pays 10% of
of Prem State contributes State contributes 65% to HSAs Prem State contributes 90%
15% to HSAs to HSAs
Year 2011 to 2020 2011 to 2020 2011 to 2020
# Employees with HMOs +QCHPs
+ Non-Medicare Retirees (NMR 146,490 to 146,490 146,490 to 146,490 146,490 to 146,490
and NMRs+1)
HMOs & QCHPs % increase/yr 10% to 10% 10% to 10% 10% to 10%
CDHP % increase/yr 5% to 5% 5% to 5% 5% to 5%
St CDHP Prem Em +2 Dep $/mo $438 to $679 $500 to $776 $563 to $873
St CDHP Prem Em +1 Dep $/mo $286 to $444 $327 to $508 $368 to $571
St CDHP Prem Em Dep $/mo $209 to $325 $239 to $371 $269 to $417
St CDHP Prem NMR +1 Dep $/mo $375 to $581 $428 to $664 $482 to $747
St CDHP Prem NMR $/mo $361 to $559 $412 to $639 $464 to $719
HSAs Contribution increase%/yr 1% to 1% 1% to 1% 1% to 1%
Cash Position with HSA/CDHP $ (Cumulative in HSAs minus Cum CDHP Premiums)
on premiums * Savings on premiums by using HSA/CDHP instead of employees or Non-Medicare Retirees paying partial cost of QCHP or HMO
premiums.
and savings ** By switching to HSA/CDHPs, the total cost to the state to provide funds for both premiums & HSAs at the indicated amounts
represents a savings vs. the current $1,574 million/yr it would spend for QCHPs and HMOs for employees, Non-Medicare retirees and
in the dependents.
*** Taxpayers save the difference between the current $1,574 million/year for employees and non-Medicare retirees and the amount it
HSAs, would cost if premiums continued to increase at 10%/year and state continued to pay current % of QCHP/HMO premiums.
taxes. Over 10 years, the same FICA and federal plans, state employees would benefit from more
income tax savings would be similar for any choices, lower premiums, and an opportunity
employee. Another benefit to some retirees to save thousands of dollars on a tax-free basis.
would be that cumulative savings dependent tate government, in turn, would benefit from Indiana’s
on the plan would save the policy holder from significant savings.
$12,700 up to $34,991 over the 10 years (see success with
Graphic 11). Indeed, this study shows that Health Savings
Account/Consumer Directed Health Care
its HSA
For Option 2, starting at age 55, the average Plan reforms could allow state budgets to program for
non-Medicare retiree would have an estimated show a savings every year through 2023.
$14,784 in their HSA at age 65 (after medical Illinois taxpayers could save as much as $18 to state workers
expenses) and would have saved $6,226
(individual) or $12,554 (NMR+1 or 2+
$27 billion between 2011 and 2023 under the
three scenarios examined in this study. State
provides a
Dependent/s) in FICA and federal income employees and non-Medicare retirees (NMRs) path forward
taxes. Over 10 years the same FICA and can also save on FICA and federal income
federal income tax savings would be similar for taxes while building savings for day-to-day for Illinois.
any employee. Premiums for any dependent and unexpected current and future health care
covered by a CDHP plan would be reduced by expenses.
a total ranging from $12,700 up to $34,991 over
10 years, compared to a fully-subsidized QCHP In order to advance, any reform will need
where premiums were assumed to increase 10 the support of both taxpayers and public
percent annually. employees. In our mid-range option, detailed as
Option 2, the state would provide 65 percent
For Option 3, starting at age 55, the average of maximum funding to the HSAs and the
non-Medicare retiree would have an estimated employee or NMR would pay 20 percent of
$14,784 in their HSA at age 65 (after medical the CDHP premium. Illinois taxpayers would
expenses) and would have saved $8,620 benefit from an estimated total of $3.2 billion
(individual) or $17,383 (NMR+1 or 2+ in real savings (available for deficit reduction)
Dependent/s) in FICA and federal income over 11 years compared to 2010’s costs. A total
taxes. Over 10 years, the same FICA and federal of $21 billion would be saved over 13 years
income tax savings would be similar for any compared to projected cost curves. Starting at
employee. age 55, the average non-Medicare retiree would
have an estimated $14,784 in their HSA at age
Taxpayers are—and should be—expecting 65 (after medical expenses) and would have
more efficient use of the money that they send saved $6,226 (individual) or $12,554 (NMR+1
to Springfield. And so HSAs/CDHPs will or 2+ Dependent/s) in FICA and federal
undoubtedly deserve a serious look. income taxes. Premiums for any dependent
covered by a CDHP plan would be reduced by
Conclusion an amount ranging from $12,700 up to $34,991
Public employees expect their employer, the over 10 years, compared to a fully-subsidized
state government, to offer quality health care QCHP where premiums were assumed to
benefits. Taxpayers expect their government increase 10 percent annually. It’s a win-win for
to get the “biggest bang” for their tax dollars. everybody.
During tough economic times and budget
crunches, the State of Illinois must look for Indiana’s success with its HSA program for
innovative new ways to offer quality benefits state workers provides a path forward for
while maximizing limited taxpayer resources. Illinois. State leaders should expand the state’s
Health Savings Accounts can help reconcile insurance offerings to include Health Savings
these competing demands. Accounts, and provide the education employees
will need to understand its benefits.
By offering a Health Savings Account-eligible
health insurance plan in addition to current
Page 14 of 26
Appendix A. Methodology
Three options were investigated to show • Average percent increase per year in
scenarios that range across a wide spectrum HMO/QCHP premiums (assumed to be
of twelve input factors and their results. Input 10 percent per year).
factors included: • Interest rate of 3 percent for funds
remaining in HSAs at year’s end.
• Average monthly premiums for HSA/ • Average of FICA and federal income tax
CDHPs. savings of 30 percent.
• Average percent increase per year in • Average medical expenses dollar amount
CDHP premiums (assumed to be 5 per year (see Graphics 13 and 14).
percent per year). • Average annual increase in medical
• Number of employees and non-Medicare expenses (assumed to be 5 percent per
retirees (assumed constant at 146,490). year for all but the top 8 percent of the
• Average percent change per year in population, which was assumed to use the
number of employees and non-Medicare maximum amount allowed by law to be
retirees (assumed as no change). contributed to the HSAs and increased
• Average dollar amount that the state at 1 percent per year. It further assumes
contributes to HSAs per year (analyzed the deductible and the maximum out-
for 15 percent, 65 percent and 90 of-pocket expenses are the same as the
percent). maximum allowable contribution to the
• Average annual percent increase in HSA HSAs).
contributions by the state (assumed to be
1 percent per year increase). The same average medical expense assumptions
• Average percent of premium paid by were used as an initial starting point in 2011 for
employees and non-Medicare retirees all three options as shown in Graphic 13. State
(assumed to be 30 percent, 20 percent and contributions to HSAs for the three options for
10 percent, respectively, for Options 1, 2, 2011 are also shown.
and 3).
Graphic 13. Average Medical Expenses and State
Contributions to HSAs in 2011
% of Ind or Families HSAs HSAs HSAs
34% 34% 24% 8%
in Category OPT 1 OPT 2 OPT 3
Avg Med Exp $/ HSAs 15% of 65% Of 90% of
$125 $500 $1,000
person Max Max Max Max
Factor for # of
Estimated Avg Medical Expense $/ $ Amount state contributes
Category People covered by
yr in 2011 to HSAs in 2011
policy
Empl + MC Dep x2 $250 $1,000 $2,000 $6,150 $923 $3,998 $5,535
Empl + 2+ Dep x4 $500 $2,000 $4,000 $6,150 $923 $3,998 $5,535
NMR or Empl +1 Dep x2 $250 $1,000 $2,000 $6,150 $923 $3,998 $5,535
NMR or Empl only x1 $125 $500 $1,000 $3,050 $458 $1,983 $2,745
On average, Graphic 13 shows that 66 • Lowest premiums found for male and
percent of CDHP participants are projected female non-smokers ages 55 and 64.
to have more medical expenses than the state • Highest Premiums found for male and
would contribute to HSAs under Option 1 female smokers ages 55 and 64.
(at 15 percent of the maximum allowable
contribution). Under Options 2 and 3, only 8 The $515 per month average premium obtained
percent of the family units would be expected for NMRs from this process is 53 percent
to have medical expenses that exceed the 65 of the $962.67 per month rate projected for
percent and 90 percent of maximum allowable NMRs in Illinois in Table 8 of the report issued
contributions made to the HSAs by the state. by the Illinois Commission on Government
For the most part, these would not be the Forecasting and Accountability (CGFA). This
same family units every year, unless there was number is fairly close to the ideal premium
some major chronic illness in the family. But of 45 percent for the major medical premium
even if they were to use up the entire HSA component of a traditional approach described
contribution every year, they would only be in Graphic 10. For NMRs plus one dependent,
out the difference between that amount and the average came out to $535 per month.
the deductible if the CDHP were structured
properly. CDHP rates to replace QCHP and HMO rates
were established in similar fashion, using ages
Estimated medical expenses were increased at 64 and 23 for employees only. The average rate
an annual average rate of 5 percent per year to was $299 per month.
correspond to the 5 percent per year rate of
increase in the CDHP premiums. For Employee plus one dependent, 16
premiums were averaged, including smoking
Results were straight line projected out 13 years and non-smoking husband and wife teams at
to 2023 because under some sets of input age 26 and 64; female smoker age 64 plus male
factors, there turned out to be possible savings student child age 22 who smokes; male age 64
to the state budget every year for 13 years plus female student child age 22 who smokes;
compared to the current projection. smoker female age 26 plus male child age 2;
and male age 26 plus female child age 2. The
HMO and QCHP premiums for non-Medicare average rate was $409 per month.
retirees and dependents were averaged together.
For the Employee plus 2 or more dependents,
CDHP Premium Rates used for premiums were averaged for a family of four:
Options 1, 2 & 3
Setting the CDHP premium rates at reasonable • Smoking and non-smoking families (male
levels is crucial to the analysis. The online and female age 64 plus male age 22 and
resource eHealthInsurance.com15 was used to female age 20).
determine the average starting premiums for • Smoking and non-smoking families (male
the HSA-qualified Consumer Directed Health and female age 26 plus non-smoking male
Plans (CDHPs); see Graphic 15. 4 and female age 2).
Rates that companies provide for The average rate was $625 per month.
eHealthInsurance.com are the best rates for
healthy individuals, so to make CDHP rates CDHP rates for Employee plus Medicare
fairly realistic, 8 premiums were averaged dependent were estimated as a proportion
from 21 HSA-qualified CDHPs found on similar to QCHP and HMO rates for Employee
eHealthInsurance.com. plus 2 dependents versus Employee plus
Medicare dependent. This produced an
For Non-Medicare Retirees (NMRs) and NMRs estimate of $396 per month for the QCHP
with one dependent, the following categories category and $400 per month for the HMO
were used: category (see Graphic 15).
Page 16 of 26
State’s
Number Total Weighted
Non-Medicare Weighted
of NMRs Avg QCHP/ Total Averaged
Retirees Plan NMR Avg
in each HMO Premium CDHP Premium
Category QCHP/HMO
Category Em +State
Contribution
$/mo $/mo $/mo
NMR + 1 Dep 10,580 $1,449 $1,599 $535
NMR only 26,661 $745 $758 $515
State’s Premium Cost $35,177,995 $37,120,500 $19,390,715
State’s Total $/
$131,137,046 $148,770,157 $66,487,094
month
Savings
available for
800
Deficit
845
Reduction
Total State
1,000,000 $/year
600
Option 1 Funds to
Taxpayers Avoid HSAs
400 $4.9
Billion in Taxes CDHP
Premiums
114 107 100 $/yr
269
200
169 164 160 155 150 145 139 133 127 121
18 18 18 18 18 19 19
17 17 17 17 17 18
151
143
2020 130
2021 137
2019 124
Total QCHP
2018 118
2017 112
2015 102
2016 107
2014 97
2012 88
2013 92
2011 84
0 Prem in 2011
2011
2022
2023
2023
& Est. 2023
Graphic
IL State17. IL State
Employee withEmployees
2 Dependentswith 2 Dependents
Average Average
Cumulative HSA Savings Cumulative HSA
Savings Over
Over 10 years10
vs.years vs.
Savings to Savings to Statefrom
State of Switching of Switching
QCHP from QCHP
toHSA/CDHP
to HSA/CDHP and Employees
and Employees Pay 30% ofPay 30%
CDHP of CDHP Premiums
Premiums
$150 $50,000
Bigger Savings for State
and Taxpayers in 2020 $45,000
Bigger $43,163
Win - Win
Incentives
State Savings in 2020 $/yr x (000,000)
$35,584 $35,000
Employees
$100
$28,005 $103
$30,000
$90 EM +2 Deps
$25,000
$20,426 $78 Savings to State
While Graphic 16 makes Option 1 look promising for savings to the state budget, Graphic 17
demonstrates that there is no incentive for employees with QCHPs to buy into Option 1. After 10
years of medical expenses (from age 55 to age 65), employees with 2+ dependents are projected to
have a $0 balance in their HSAs.
Page 18 of 26
Savings
available for
800
Deficit
845
Reduction
Total State
1,000,000 $/year
600
Option 2 Funds to
Taxpayers Avoid HSAs
400 $3.9
Billion in Taxes CDHP
15 Premiums
71 64 57 49 41 33 24
101 95 90 84 77 $/yr
269
200 79 80 81 82
75 76 77 78 79
72 73 74 75
172
164
156
149
142
2018 135
Total QCHP
2017 128
2015 116
2016 122
2014 111
2013 106
2012 101
2011 96
0 Prem in 2011
2011
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2023
& Est. 2023
$40,000
Win - Win
for
Target Zone
$28,005 $30,000
EM +2 Deps
$84 $25,000
Savings to State
$20,426
$72
Less Incentive $20,000
$50 State and $60 for Employees
Taxpayers $47 $15,000
Save Less in 2020 $12,847
$35
$10,000
Graphic 18 makes Option 2 look promising, with savings of $41 million per year in 2020 to the state
budget. And Graphic 19 demonstrates that there is some incentive for employees with QCHPs to
buy into Option 2. After 10 years of medical expenses (from age 55 to age 65), employees with 2+
dependents are projected to have an average balance of about $16,000 in their HSAs.
Page 19 of 26
1,000
Savings
available for
800
Deficit
845
Reduction
Total State
1,000,000 $/year
600 Option 3
Funds to
Taxpayers Avoid HSAs
$3.3
400
Billion in Taxes CDHP
0 0 0 Premiums
10 1 0
61 55 48 41 34 26 18 110 111 112 113 $/yr
269
109
200
104 106 107 108
100 101 102 103
194
184
176
167
159
152
144
138
2015 131
Total QCHP
2014 125
2013 119
2012 113
2011 108
0 Prem in 2011
2011
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2023
& Est. 2023
$40,000
for $35,584 Avg. Cum. in HSAs in 2020 ($)
Employees $35,000
$100
$28,005 $30,000
EM +2 Deps
$25,000
$20,426 Savings to State
65 $20,000
$50 $12,847
State and $53 $15,000
Less Incentive
Taxpayers $41 for Employees $10,000
Save Less in 2020 $17
$29 $5,268
$4 $5,000
$0 $0 $341 0
$0 $0
% State contributes to HSAs
Option 3 for QCHPs shown in Graphic 20 looks somewhat less promising, with savings to the state
ending in 2020. However, Graphic 21 demonstrates that there is increased incentive for employees
with QCHPs to buy into Option 3. After 10 years of medical expenses (from age 55 to age 65),
employees with 2+ dependents are projected to have an average balance of over $35,000 in their
HSAs.
Page 20 of 26
3,000
Savings
2,769
2,500 available for
Deficit
Reduction
2,000 Option 1 Total State
1,000,000 $/year
509 492 475 458 439 419 399 377 355 $/yr
500 67 68 68 69 70
65 66 66
62 62 63 64 64
560
533
508
484
461
439
418
2016 398
Total HMO
2015 379
2014 361
2012 327
2013 344
2011 312
0 Prem in 2011
2011
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2023
& Est. 2023
$400 $40,000
for Target Zone
$83 $5,268
Option 1
$5,000
$0 $0 $38 $341 $0 $0 HSAs
$0 $0
% State contributes to HSAs Funded
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 15% at 15%
Estimated Average Cumulative $ in Employee's HSA in 2020
EM +2 $43,163 $35,584 $28,005 $20,426 $12,847 $5,268 $341 $0 0
Deps
While Graphic 22 makes Option 1 look promising for savings to the state budget, Graphic 23
demonstrates that there is no incentive for employees with HMOs to buy into Option 1. After 10
years of medical expenses (from age 55 to age 65), employees with 2+ dependents are projected to
have a $0 balance in their HSAs.
Page 21 of 26
Savings
2,769
2,500 available for
Deficit
Reduction
2,000 Option 2 Total State
1,000,000 $/year
640
609
580
553
526
501
478
455
433
412
2013 393
Total HMO
2012 374
2011 356
0 Prem in 2011
2011
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2023
& Est. 2023
$28,005 $30,000
EM +2 Deps
$300 $25,000
Savings to State
$20,426
$194
$20,000
$200
$12,847 $149 $15,000
State and Less
Taxpayers $104 Incentive
$10,000
$100 Save Less in 2020 for Employees
$5,268 $5,000
$0 $0 $59 $341 $0
$0 $14
$0 $0
% State contributes to HSAs
Graphic 24 makes Option 2 for HMOs look promising, with savings of $36 million per year in 2020
to the state budget. And Graphic 25 demonstrates that there is some incentive for employees with
QCHPs to buy into Option 2. After 10 years of medical expenses from age 55 to age 65), employees
with 2+ dependents are projected to have an average balance of about $16,000 in their HSAs.
Page 22 of 26
Savings
2,769
2,500 available for
Deficit
Reduction
2,000 Option 3
Total State
1,000,000 $/year
720
686
653
622
592
564
537
512
487
464
442
421
2011 401
Total HMO
0 Prem in 2011
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2023
& Est. 2023
$400 $40,000
for $35,584
Option 3 for HMOs shown in Graphic 26 looks somewhat less promising, with savings to the state
ending in 2015. However, Graphic 27 demonstrates that there is increased incentive for employees
with HMOs to buy into Option 3. After 10 years of medical expenses (from age 55 to age 65),
employees with 2+ dependents are projected to have an average balance of over $35,000 in their
HSAs.
Page 23 of 26
1,500
Savings
available for
1,325
Deficit
Reduction
1,000 Option 1 Total State
1,000,000 $/year
293
279
265
253
241
229
218
208
2015 198
Total
2014 189
2013 180
2011 163
2012 171
0 CQHP/HMO
2011
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2023
Prem in 2011
& Est. 2023
Retirees
$100 $105
$40,000
Win - Win $33,708
Target Zone
$73 $89 NMR +1 Dep
$30,000
Savings to State
$57 $26,129
Less Incentive
$50 $41 for Retirees $20,000
State and $18,550
Taxpayers $25
$10,971
Save Less in 2020
$10,000
$9 $3,392
Option 1
$0 HSAs
$0 $0
% State contributes to HSAs Funded
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 15% at 15%
Estimated Average Cumulative $ in NMR's HSA in 2020
NMR +1 $56,445 $48,866 $41,287 $33,708 $26,129 $18,550 $10,971 $3,392 0
Dep
While Graphic 28 makes Option 1 look promising for savings to the state budget, Graphic 29
demonstrates that there is no incentive for non–Medicare retirees to buy into Option 1. After 10
years of medical expenses (from age 55 to age 65), non-Medicare retirees with one dependent are
projected to have a $0 balance in their HSAs.
Page 24 of 26
1,500
Savings
available for
1,325
Deficit
Reduction
1,000 Option 2 Total State
1,000,000 $/year
$/yr
99 100 101
95 96 97 98
334
318
303
289
275
262
249
238
226
215
2012 195
2013 205
Total
2011 186
0 CQHP/HMO
2011
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2023
Prem in 2011
& Est. 2023
$50 $20,000
$37 $18,550
State and
Taxpayers $10,971
$21
Save Less in 2020 $10,000
Less Incentive
$5 $3,392
$0 $0
for Retirees
$0 $0
% State contributes to HSAs
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30%
Estimated Average Cumulative $ in NMR's HSA in 2020
NMR +1 $56,445 $48,866 $41,287 $33,708 $26,129 $18,550 $10,971 $3,392
Dep
Graphic 30 makes Option 2 look promising, with savings to the state budget of $29 million per year
in 2020. And Graphic 31 demonstrates that there is some incentive for employees with QCHPs to
buy into this Option. After 10 years of medical expenses (from age 55 to age 65), non-Medicare
retirees with one dependent are projected to have an average balance of about $30,000 in their
HSAs.
Page 25 of 26
Savings
available for
1,325
Deficit
Reduction
1,000 Option 3 Total State
1,000,000 $/year
$/yr
132 133 134 136
376
358
341
325
309
295
281
267
255
242
231
220
209
Total
0 CQHP/HMO
2011
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2023
Prem in 2011
& Est. 2023
for
Avg. Cum. in HSAs in 2020 ($)
Retirees $41,287
$100 $40,000
$33,708
Win - Win
Target Zone NMR +1 Dep
$26,129 Less Incentive $30,000
Savings to State
for Retirees
$49
$18,550
$50 $20,000
State and $33
Taxpayers
$10,971
Save Less in 2020 $17 $10,000
$3,392
$0 $0 $0 $0 $1
$0 $0
% State contributes to HSAs
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30%
Estimated Average Cumulative $ in NMR's HSA in 2020
NMR +1 $56,445 $48,866 $41,287 $33,708 $26,129 $18,550 $10,971 $3,392
Dep
While Graphics 32 and 33 show there would be no savings to the state in 2020 compared to its 2011
budget for Non-Medicare retirees, those retirees with one dependent would have accumulated an
estimated average of over $48,000 in their HSAs over 10 years, from age 55 to age 65.
Page 26 of 26