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DATE ALTOS MACHAY CHALHUACOCHA JAICO MACHAVADO

1965 1617.5 1720.3 1681.5 1291.7


1966 1591.8 1633.3 1641.4 1437.8
1967 1775.7 1880.9 1812 1699.5
1968 1789.3 1923 1832.7 1483
1969 1188.3 1341 1340.5 1165.7
1970 1260.1 1529.8 1427.4 1062.3
1971 1401 1745.5 1582.3 1288.2
1972 1317.6 1537.4 1334 1201.8
1973 1624.2 1874.5 1610.3 1486.3
1974 1417.2 1658.4 1370.1 1130
1975 1597.1 1801.2 1618.7 1349.3
1976 1279.6 1509.3 1308.3 1074.5
1977 1429.2 1739.6 1505.7 1194.3
1978 1286.5 1687.3 1580.8 1135.7
1979 1353.8 1631 1610.1 1205.3
1980 1286.3 1645.4 1425.7 1087.3
1981 1488.6 1819.7 1722.7 1277.7
1982 1425.4 1752.1 1673.9 1279.8
1983 1358.9 1720.8 1565.6 1287.6
1984 1864.6 1997.9 1922.6 1780.8
1985 1780.8 1754.1 1768.3 1577.6
1986 1457.3 1748.9 1510.3 1331.9
1987 1336.4 1365.7 1322.9 1101.3
1988 1316 1499.7 1311 1070
1989 1590.5 1789.2 1618.9 1441.1
1990 1475.9 1680.6 1514.7 1346
1991 1334.2 1630.2 1385.7 1176.6
1992 1231.3 1256.5 1045.3
1993 1899.9 1970 1653.9
1994 1493 1371 1257.4
1995 1748.8 1659.3 1516.3
1996 1663.3 1591.9 1425.6
1997 1645.6 1537.1 1371.2
1998 1699.6 1569.3 1448.8
1999 1244.7 1317.6
2000 1568.3 1515.4 1414.6
2001 1635.5 1549.5 1539.8
2002 1420.8 1417.3 1264.2
Distancias
ALTOS MACHAY CHALHUACOCHA JAICO MACHAVADO
ALTOS MACHAY 0
CHALHUACOCHA 4.88 0
JAICO 3.23 6.86 0
MACHAVADO 3.57 4.2 3.25 0

Coef. Correlación
ALTOS MACHAY CHALHUACOCHA JAICO MACHAVADO
ALTOS MACHAY 1
CHALHUACOCHA 0.8038007984 1
JAICO 0.8570576515 0.8587213629 1
MACHAVADO 0.9224060489 0.7724415971 0.84909088 1
DATE ORURILLO PROGRESO AZANGARO
1968 587 555.4 588.1
1969 456 468.4 773.5
1970 862 723.5 812.4
1971 544 537.7 834.7
1972 663 639.9 679
1973 639 783.8 595.5
1974 717 486.9
1975 567 669.8
1976 595 768.6
1977 880 718.2
1978 753 932.8
Distancias
ORURILLO PROGRESO
ORURILLO 0
PROGRESO 4.88 0
AZANGARO 3.23 6.86

Coef. Correlación
ORURILLO PROGRESO
ORURILLO 1
PROGRESO 0.8038007984 1
AZANGARO 0.8570576515 0.8587213629
AZANGARO

AZANGARO

1
Distancias 4.88 6.86
PROGRESO
DATE ORURILLO PROGRESO AZANGARO Error Abs (EA)
(ESTIMADO)
1968 587 555.4 588.1 587.4572402044 32.057240204
1969 456 468.4 773.5 587.9761499148 119.57614991
1970 862 723.5 812.4 841.3826235094 117.88262351
1971 544 537.7 834.7 664.8361158433 127.13611584
1972 663 639.9 679 669.6507666099 29.75076661
1973 639 783.8 595.5 620.9182282794 -162.88177172
1974 717 486.9 621.3536626917 Error Relativo
1975 567 669.8 609.7311754685
1976 595 768.6 667.1608177172
1977 880 718.2 812.7441226576
1978 753 932.8 827.7379897785
EA^2 DISTANCIA
4.88 6.86
1027.66665 DATE ORURILLO PROGRESO AZANGARO
14298.45563 1968 587 555.4 588.1
13896.31293 1969 456 468.4 773.5
16163.59195 1970 862 723.5 812.4
885.1081139 1971 544 537.7 834.7
26530.47156 1972 663 639.9 679
44.96962148 1973 639 783.8 595.5
1974 717 486.9
1975 567 669.8
1976 595 768.6
1977 880 718.2
1978 753 932.8
PROGRESO
DATE PROGRESO AZANGARO Error Abs (EA) EA^2
(ESTIMADO)
1968 555.4 588.1 937.8437 382.4437 146263.184
1969 468.4 773.5 1081.8995 613.4995 376381.637
1970 723.5 812.4 1112.1248 388.6248 151029.235
1971 537.7 834.7 1129.4519 591.7519 350170.311
1972 639.9 679 1008.473 368.573 135846.056
1973 783.8 595.5 943.5935 159.7935 25533.9626
1974 486.9 859.2113 Error Relativo 181.446685
1975 669.8 1001.3246
1976 768.6 1078.0922
1977 718.2 1038.9314
1978 932.8 1205.6756
PROGRESO
DATE ORURILLO PROGRESO AZANGARO Error Abs (EA)
(ESTIMADO)
1968 587 555.4 588.1 587.55 32.15
1969 456 468.4 773.5 614.75 146.35
1970 862 723.5 812.4 837.2 113.7
1971 544 537.7 834.7 689.35 151.65
1972 663 639.9 679 671 31.1
1973 639 783.8 595.5 617.25 -166.55
1974 717 486.9 601.95 Error Relativo
1975 567 669.8 618.4
1976 595 768.6 681.8
1977 880 718.2 799.1
1978 753 932.8 842.9
EA^2

1033.6225
21418.3225
12927.69
22997.7225
967.21
27738.9025
49.18318084
Promedios 625.2 618.1 713.9
PROGRESO Error Abs
DATE ORURILLO PROGRESO AZANGARO (ESTIMADO) (EA)
1968 587 555.4 588.1 363.1997744413 -192.20023
1969 456 468.4 773.5 373.5363834906 -94.863617
1970 862 723.5 812.4 518.5710284662 -204.92897
1971 544 537.7 834.7 420.2026997829 -117.4973
1972 663 639.9 679 414.4833246854 -225.41668
1973 639 783.8 595.5 382.4734558003 -401.32654
1974 717 486.9 376.8357125231 Error Relativo
1975 567 669.8 380.1888497675
1976 595 768.6 417.9329596825
1977 880 718.2 497.3150073387
1978 753 932.8 517.3977278263
EA^2

36940.9267
8999.10574
41995.8834
13805.6156
50812.6775
161062.995
93.3358934
Coef. Correlación 0.75685497 ###
PROGESO Error Abs
DATE ORURILLO PROGRESO AZANGARO (ESTIMADO) (EA)
1968 587 555.4 588.1 586.1991683951 30.7991684
1969 456 468.4 773.5 224.8508776683 -243.54912
1970 862 723.5 812.4 898.110225095 174.610225
1971 544 537.7 834.7 332.3620476793 -205.33795
1972 663 639.9 679 651.3515402919 11.4515403
1973 639 783.8 595.5 670.6692498313 -113.13075
1974 717 486.9 884.5194111764 Error Relativo
1975 567 669.8 492.1586463758
1976 595 768.6 468.6142121676
1977 880 718.2 997.7950487977
1978 753 932.8 622.1004340308
EA^2

948.5887738
59316.17499
30488.73071
42163.67466
131.1377751
12798.56663
63.6498393
ALTOS CHALHUACOCHA
DATE JAICO CHALHUACOCHA Error Abs (EA)
MACHAY (Estimado)
1968 587 588.1 555.4 954.071 398.67101962
1969 456 773.5 468.4 1030.955 562.55452777
1970 862 812.4 723.5 1153.583 430.08263042
1971 544 834.7 537.7 1088.577 550.87660418
1972 663 679 639.9 1026.217 386.31688334
1973 639 595.5 783.8 971.199 187.39938424
1974 717 486.9 926.475 Error Relativo
1975 567 669.8 997.220
1976 595 768.6 1062.221
1977 880 718.2 1102.589
1978 753 932.8 1197.633
EA^2

158938.5819
Resumen
316467.5967
184971.069 Estadísticas de la regresión
303465.033 Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.8689287924
149240.7344 Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.7550372463
35118.52921 R^2 ajustado 0.7230855828
178.5902778 Error típico 82.2757555712
Observaciones 27

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados
Regresión 3 479888.027706182
Residuos 23 155693.898960485
Total 26 635581.926666667

Coeficientes Error típico


Intercepción 463.89289815 152.998190997
ALTOS MACHAY 0.2456749958 0.2427020514
JAICO 0.5882790324 0.189635251
Promedio de los cuadrados F Valor crítico de F
159962.675902061 23.6306083303 3.278975577623E-07
6769.2999548037

Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95.0%


3.0320155757 0.0059269436 147.3920259637 780.39377034 147.3920259637
1.0122493585 0.3219499167 -0.2563924498 0.7477424414 -0.2563924498
3.1021607489 0.0050218081 0.1959886271 0.9805694376 0.1959886271
Superior 95.0%
780.3937703363
0.7477424414
0.9805694376
Distancias 4.88 → 6.86 4.2
W=1/D^2 0.04199140 → 0.02124965 0.05668934
ALTOS
DATE CHALHUACOCHA JAICO MACHAVADO CHALHUACOCHA
MACHAY (Estimado)
1965 1617.5 1720.3 1681.5 1291.7 1474.8388286559
1966 1591.8 1633.3 1641.4 1437.8 1527.7947383116
1967 1775.7 1880.9 1812 1699.5 1746.1131241375
1968 1789.3 1923 1832.7 1483 1652.2062197799
1969 1188.3 1341 1340.5 1165.7 1204.5845919683
1970 1260.1 1529.8 1427.4 1062.3 1196.2455802671
1971 1401 1745.5 1582.3 1288.2 1379.8044018772
1972 1317.6 1537.4 1334 1201.8 1265.7688377762
1973 1624.2 1874.5 1610.3 1486.3 1556.5538403216
1974 1417.2 1658.4 1370.1 1130 1273.0994317972
1975 1597.1 1801.2 1618.7 1349.3 1483.7957207382
1976 1279.6 1509.3 1308.3 1074.5 1187.7373869374
1977 1429.2 1739.6 1505.7 1194.3 1331.7207191995
1978 1286.5 1687.3 1580.8 1135.7 1267.3640580217
1979 1353.8 1631 1610.1 1205.3 1329.0182731798
1980 1286.3 1645.4 1425.7 1087.3 1216.9349468247
1981 1488.6 1819.7 1722.7 1277.7 1430.3892389108
1982 1425.4 1752.1 1673.9 1279.8 1400.6070318907
1983 1358.9 1720.8 1565.6 1287.6 1361.8212979958
1984 1864.6 1997.9 1922.6 1780.8 1835.2655904958
1985 1780.8 1754.1 1768.3 1577.6 1682.5355417381
1986 1457.3 1748.9 1510.3 1331.9 1407.4159629084
1987 1336.4 1365.7 1322.9 1101.3 1222.8796950559
1988 1316 1499.7 1311 1070 1198.8334815702
1989 1590.5 1789.2 1618.9 1441.1 1524.9128074204
1990 1475.9 1680.6 1514.7 1346 1421.3728774236
1991 1334.2 1630.2 1385.7 1176.6 1268.8297190186
1992 1231.3 1256.5 1045.3 1147.8455364541
1993 1899.9 1970 1653.9 1796.0399391128
1994 1493 1371 1257.4 1360.0189762911
1995 1748.8 1659.3 1516.3 1623.0427546201
1996 1663.3 1591.9 1425.6 1538.2918063978
1997 1645.6 1537.1 1371.2 1496.6707567648
1998 1699.6 1569.3 1448.8 1557.9635381027
1999 1244.7 1317.6
2000 1568.3 1515.4 1414.6 1486.2752669854
2001 1635.5 1549.5 1539.8 1575.0262552126
2002 1420.8 1417.3 1264.2 1346.1573289638
Error Abs EA^2
(EA)
-245.46117 60251.1866
-105.50526 11131.3602
-134.78688 18167.5019
-270.79378 73329.2714
-136.41541 18609.1635
-333.55442 111258.551
-365.6956 133733.27
-271.63116 73783.4883
-317.94616 101089.76
-385.30057 148456.528
-317.40428 100745.476
-321.56261 103402.514
-407.87928 166365.508
-419.93594 176346.195
-301.98173 91192.9633
-428.46505 183582.302
-389.31076 151562.869
-351.49297 123547.307
-358.9787 128865.708
-162.63441 26449.9512
-71.564458 5121.47169
-341.48404 116611.348
-142.8203 20397.6395
-300.86652 90520.6619
-264.28719 69847.7202
-259.22712 67198.7011
-361.37028 130588.48
Error Relativo 58.5859538
ERROR RELATIVO
RD 39.4590890948
RL 15.1309920083
PV 51.2644127265
RP 21.4156949171
EV 50.4053217786
RM 14.614098599
US NWB 58.5859538479

*El menor error relativo es de las REGRESIONES


MÚLTIPLES.
*Ese trabajará con el método de REGRESIONES
MÚLTIPLES.
DATE CHALHUACOCHA RL RD PV RP

1965 1720.3 1787.4155 1644.10306644 1530.23333 1790.96151


1966 1633.3 1756.2578 1612.417376491 1557 1830.12526
1967 1880.9 1888.814 1790.788926746 1762.4 2076.24205
1968 1923 1904.8979 1807.340204429 1701.66667 1994.79617
1969 1341 1522.4585 1251.565417376 1231.5 1448.08096
1970 1529.8 1589.9798 1329.642078365 1249.93333 1462.11368
1971 1745.5 1710.3371 1476.361499148 1423.83333 1670.48376
1972 1537.4 1517.408 1324.417035775 1284.46667 1511.02138
1973 1874.5 1732.0931 1618.422146508 1573.6 1852.38542
1974 1658.4 1545.4577 1397.621805792 1305.76667 1531.06755
1975 1801.2 1738.6199 1606.078534923 1521.7 1785.45044
1976 1509.3 1497.4391 1291.529812606 1220.8 1431.77816
1977 1739.6 1650.8189 1460.998977854 1376.4 1612.72915
1978 1687.3 1709.1716 1408.832538331 1334.33333 1559.70067
1979 1631 1731.9377 1460.336967632 1389.73333 1626.39149
1980 1645.4 1588.6589 1344.244804089 1266.43333 1482.41995
1981 1819.7 1819.4279 1585.909028961 1496.33333 1750.34918
1982 1752.1 1781.5103 1528.69471891 1459.7 1709.35351
1983 1720.8 1697.3612 1444.819591141 1404.03333 1648.02882
1984 1997.9 1974.7502 1888.709028961 1856 2185.74108
1985 1754.1 1854.8591 1775.604088586 1708.9 2009.36158
1986 1748.9 1654.3931 1479.330664395 1433.16667 1685.01533
1987 1365.7 1508.7833 1330.788415673 1253.53333 1470.50554
1988 1499.7 1499.537 1313.921635434 1232.33333 1444.76006
1989 1789.2 1738.7753 1602.305110733 1550.16667 1822.91559
1990 1680.6 1657.8119 1492.028109029 1445.53333 1699.87466
1991 1630.2 1557.5789 1355.607155026 1298.83333 1525.14703
1992 1457.1905 1241.774957411 1177.7 1381.7988
1993 2011.58 1929.03867121 1841.26667 2161.25263
1994 1546.157 1442.2879046 1373.8 1615.87371
1995 1770.1661 1711.597274276 1641.46667 1930.96424
1996 1717.7963 1633.620954003 1560.26667 1834.32195
1997 1675.2167 1600.499488927 1517.96667 1784.03364
1998 1700.2361 1645.437819421 1572.56667 1850.15236
2000 1658.3558 1546.310902896 1499.43333 1765.40306
2001 1684.8515 1599.752129472 1574.93333 1857.97406
2002 1582.1321 1419.345144804 1367.43333 1607.90147

Comparación
2400

2200

2000
Comparación
2400

2200

2000

Métodos 1800

1600

1400

1200

1000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Años

CHALHUACOCHA RL RD PV
RP EV RM US NMW
EV RM US NMW

1536.71715 1800.42553 1474.83883


1560.43878 1764.86208 1527.79474
1764.3288 1900.26438 1746.11312
1707.43827 1924.16971 1652.20622
1234.80591 1499.25966 1204.58459
1256.35257 1572.02608 1196.24558
1429.15433 1689.0152 1379.8044
1286.64853 1525.80318 1265.76884
1575.55208 1752.64768 1556.55384
1309.48135 1574.29067 1273.09943
1526.10812 1756.23853 1483.79572
1224.65772 1506.28011 1187.73739
1381.66157 1654.51856 1331.72072
1342.45053 1665.91054 1267.36406
1397.07896 1696.98488 1329.01827
1272.3326 1576.49424 1216.93495
1504.25475 1793.53745 1430.38924
1466.84816 1749.22143 1400.60703
1409.17698 1668.87126 1361.8213
1858.47064 1984.01915 1835.26559
1711.93074 1880.53169 1682.53554
1436.21059 1658.79776 1407.41596
1257.05847 1527.78514 1222.8797
1236.1983 1516.98535 1198.83348
1553.12158 1751.17858 1524.91281
1448.37525 1665.40954 1421.37288
1302.36682 1561.27161 1268.82972
1181.18247 1465.0723 1147.84554
1846.58329 2025.49175 1796.03994
1375.23593 1588.50707 1360.01898
1643.48088 1810.92231 1623.04275
1562.71449 1753.78063 1538.29181
1520.28838 1719.30184 1496.67076
1574.08694 1748.5048 1557.96354
1500.88601 1685.86428 1486.27527
1574.81216 1717.58395 1575.02626
1369.88759 1597.74324 1346.15733
1995 2000 2005

PV
US NMW

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