SECTOR RESEARCH April 24, 2018

Ports and Logistics tracker

Container volumes lead growth

Post the FY17 sharp upmove in cargo traffic, 12 major cargo ports Figure 1: Cargo volume growth in FY18 moderated to 4.8% yoy
witnessed 4.8% growth in FY18 to touch 679mn tons. This growth Total cargo volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS)
was driven by 8.4% rise in container volumes during the same span. 750 (mn tons) 679 (%) 8
648
Save for Iron Ore, Container, Petroleum, Oil, and Lubricants (POL) 650 606 7
556 579
and Coal maintained strong volumes. Cargo volumes picked up post 6.9
550 6
the H1 FY18 GST‐related uncertainty, and are now stabilizing. We
expect further boost in FY19 cargo growth led by Iron ore and 450 5
Container cargo volumes. With the pick up in economic activity and 350 4.7 4.8 4
post transition to centralized storage, cargo movement would gain 4.1
250 3
remarkable momentum. Of the 12 key Indian ports, Kolkata, Paradip 1.8
and Cochin ports are leading the cargo volume growth and would 150 2
continue to do so going forward. Established players like Adani 50 1
Ports would be key beneficiaries of the cargo volume boost. (50) 0
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18

Mar’18 records all time high container volumes; overall volumes

Source: IPA, IIFL Research

steady
Though total cargo volume at 12 major ports during Mar’18 touched H2 Figure 2: Monthly trend of cargo volumes
Container Coal
FY18 high in absolute terms, yoy growth was the slowest. On the brighter Fertilizer POL
80 15
side, container volumes registered a growth of 5% yoy to scale highest (mn tons) Iron ore Others (%)
ever volumes of 0.83mn TEUs. In addition, overall cargo growth was yoy growth‐ Total cargo (RHS)
significantly supported by coal volumes which grew by 44% yoy albeit on 60
a weaker base. Growth of 69% yoy in Fertilizers cargo also boosted 10
volumes. However, it got offset by marginal decline in POL and 5% decline
in Iron ore volumes. While Mar’18 registered strong cargo volumes in 40
absolute terms, the real positive impact of GST and pickup in economic 5
activity would only be visible during the next few quarters. 20

0 0
Oct‐17 Nov‐17 Dec‐17 Jan‐18 Feb‐18 Mar‐18

Source: IPA, IIFL Research

Analyst: Alok Deora, Lokesh Kashikar
1
Ports and Logistics tracker

FY18: Steady Container and Coal volumes, Iron ore volumes drop Figure 4: Container volumes improved 8.4% yoy during FY18 (in TEU
During FY18, while container and coal volumes have been strong, iron‐ terms)
ore volumes have been a drag on overall growth. Total coal volumes Container Volumes
Port(in TEUs) (%) yoy change
improved 4.7% yoy, driven by the 8.6% growth in the coking coal volumes FY18 FY17
which formed 33% of the overall coal traffic. Thermal coal volumes also Chennai 1,549 1,495 3.6
registered 2.8% yoy growth during the period. Fertilizers have also Cochin 556 491 13.2
witnessed growth of 7% yoy during FY18. However, iron ore volumes J.N.P.T. 4,833 4,500 7.4
declined by 2.8% during FY18 and reversed the strong growth witnessed Kandla 118 10 1080
during H1 FY18. POL and container volumes remained robust at 7.2% and Kolkata 796 772 3.1
8.4% yoy respectively during FY18. Mormugao 32 30 6.7
Mumbai 42 42 ‐
Figure 3: Container volumes improved 7.3% yoy during FY18 (in New Mangalore 115 95 21.1
tonnage terms) Paradip 7 8 (12.5)
Container Volumes Vizag 389 367 6.0
Port(‘000 tons) (%) yoy change
FY18 FY17 V.O. Chidambaranar 698 642 8.7
Chennai 29,905 28,850 3.7 Aggregate 9,135 8,452 8.4
Cochin 7,692 6,840 12.5 Source: IPA, IIFL Research
J.N.P.T. 57,866 54,530 6.1
Kandla 1,838 175 950.3 Figure 5: Thermal coal volume volumes remained under pressure
Kolkata 12,432 12,354 0.6 Coal Chidam‐
Period Paradip Vizag Others Aggregate
(‘000 tons) baranar
Kamarajar (Ennore) 52 1 ‐ FY18 29,187 9,795 8,783 47,501 95,266
Mormugao 425 402 5.7 Thermal FY17 25,855 10,824 7,527 48,495 92,701
Mumbai 556 558 (0.4) (%) yoy growth 12.9 (9.5) 16.7 (2.0) 2.8
New Mangalore 1,743 1,411 23.5 FY18 13,172 2,685 6,187 28,552 50,596
Coking & FY17 10,302 3,426 4,606 28,248 46,582
Paradip 98 38 157.9 Others
(%) yoy growth 27.9 (21.6) 34.3 1.1 8.6
Vizag 6,835 6,428 6.3
Source: IPA, IIFL Research
V.O. Chidambaranar 14,184 12,991 9.2
Aggregate 133,626 124,578 7.3 Figure 6: Iron ore volumes witnessed degrowth in FY18 after strong
Source: IPA, IIFL Research growth in FY17
Period Iron Other Total
POL Coal Containers
(‘000 tons) Ore Cargo* Cargo
FY18 214,311 145,862 133,626 48,590 270,596 679,359
FY17 199,878 139,283 124,578 49,964 259,273 648,398
(%) yoy growth 7.2 4.7 7.3 (2.8) 4.4 4.8
Source: IPA, IIFL Research *other cargo includes fertilizers, other liquids and miscellaneous cargo

2
Ports and Logistics tracker

Port report: Kolkata, Cochin & Paradip lead; rest stay muted Figure 8: Cargo volumes trend for all major ports over FY18
East coast of India ports, mainly Kolkata (including Haldia) and Paradip, Port (in mn tons) Oct‐17 Nov‐17 Dec‐17 Jan‐18 Feb‐18 Mar‐18
has shown significant cargo volume growth during FY18. Kolkata port has Kandla 9.8 8.9 9.1 9.9 8.9 10.2
witnessed 13.6% yoy growth during FY18 backed by robust growth in Paradip 8.2 9.2 9.4 10.2 8.6 8.9
fertilizers (82.6% yoy), Iron Ore (35.9% yoy) and Coal (17.9% yoy). Mumbai 5.5 5.6 5.2 5.2 4.7 5.4
Similarly, POL (22% yoy), Iron ore (10.4% yoy) and Coal (17.2% yoy) has J.N.P.T. 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.4 6.1
led to 14.7% yoy growth in Paradip port. Cochin, though one of the Vizag 5.6 5.2 5.6 5.9 5.3 5.8
smallest port among major 12, has also been showing strengths and been Chennai 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.1 4.0 4.3
New Mangalore 3.9 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.4 3.9
improving at decent pace from past two years. Among others, J.N.P.T,
V.O. Chidambaranar 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.1 3.5
Kandla, New Mangalore and Chennai posted a muted 3‐6% growth. On the
Kolkata (incl. Haldia) 4.6 4.7 5.0 5.3 5.0 5.8
other hand, Mormugao port is facing challenges (~19% yoy volume de‐
Mormugao 2.1 1.7 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.9
growth) due to decline in iron ore, coal and fertilizers volumes.
Kamarajar 2.3 2.5 3.1 3.0 2.5 3.2
Cochin 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.8 2.4 2.6
Figure 7: Cargo volumes trend for all major ports over the years
Total Cargo Volume 56.5 56.7 59.7 61.6 55.6 62.7
Port (in mn tons) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
(%) yoy growth 3.4 4.8 5.0 12.9 9.1 2.9
Kandla 94 87 93 100 105 110
Source: IPA, IIFL Research
Paradip 57 68 71 76 89 102
Mumbai 58 59 62 61 63 63 Figure 9: Commodity wise trend during FY18
J.N.P.T. 64 62 64 64 62 66 Commodity
Oct‐17 Nov‐17 Dec‐17 Jan‐18 Feb‐18 Mar‐18
Vizag 59 59 58 57 61 66 (in mn tons)
POL 19.5 19.1 19.7 20.0 6.4 18.6
Chennai 53 51 53 50 50 52
Other Liquids 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.4 3.7 2.5
New Mangalore 37 39 37 36 40 42
Coal 11.9 12.3 14.1 15.2 12.4 13.9
V.O. Chidambaranar 28 29 32 37 38 37
Iron ore 3.6 3.6 4.5 4.2 4.9 6.0
Kolkata (incl. Haldia) 40 42 44 51 50 58
Fertilizer 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.2
Mormugao 18 12 15 21 33 27
Container 10.6 10.8 11.7 11.4 10.9 12.3
Kamarajar 18 27 30 32 30 30
Others 7.2 7.5 6.5 7.0 16.3 8.4
Cochin 20 21 22 22 25 29
Total 56.5 56.7 59.7 61.6 55.6 62.7
Total Cargo Volume 546 556 579 606 648 679
Source: IPA, IIFL Research
Source: IPA, IIFL Research

3
Ports and Logistics tracker

Figure 10: Cargo performance in major Indian ports during FY18

Port (‘000 tons) Traffic period POL Other liquids Iron Ore Fertilizers Coal Containers Other cargo Total Cargo
FY18 13,503 1,606 ‐ 229 ‐ 29,905 6,638 51,881
Chennai FY17 12,216 1,386 ‐ 268 ‐ 28,850 7,494 50,214
(%) yoy growth 10.5 15.9 ‐ (14.6) ‐ 3.7 (11.4) 3.3
FY18 4,645 2,541 ‐ ‐ ‐ 57,866 952 66,004
J.N.P.T. FY17 4,502 2,279 ‐ ‐ ‐ 54,530 840 62,151
(%) yoy growth 3.2 11.5 ‐ ‐ ‐ 6.1 13.3 6.2
FY18 49,843 9,944 1,263 3,704 13,787 1,838 29,720 110,099
Kandla FY17 47,834 9,712 735 3,656 15,559 175 27,771 105,442
(%) yoy growth 4.2 2.4 71.8 1.3 (11.4) 950.3 7.0 4.4
FY18 8,922 5,723 1,576 1,010 15,577 12,432 12,646 57,886
Kolkata FY17 7,694 5,021 1,160 553 13,216 12,354 10,953 50,951
(%) yoy growth 16.0 14.0 35.9 82.6 17.9 0.6 15.5 13.6
FY18 37,680 1,986 7,764 288 6,267 556 8,287 62,828
Mumbai FY17 36,649 2,193 7,623 283 6,927 558 8,816 63,049
(%) yoy growth 2.8 (9.4) 1.8 1.8 (9.5) (0.4) (6.0) (0.4)
FY18 33,776 1,482 12,189 4,453 42,359 98 7,656 102,013
Paradip FY17 27,696 1,814 11,045 4,067 36,157 38 8,138 88,955
(%) yoy growth 22.0 (18.3) 10.4 9.5 17.2 157.9 (5.9) 14.7
FY18 16,050 2,128 10,646 2,873 14,970 6,835 10,035 63,537
Vizag FY17 16,605 1,917 11,420 2,662 12,133 6,428 9,855 61,020
(%) yoy growth (3.3) 11.0 (6.8) 7.9 23.4 6.3 1.8 4.1
FY18 639 870 ‐ 1,401 12,480 14,184 7,001 36,575
V.O.Chidambaranar
FY17 667 879 ‐ 1,641 14,250 12,991 8,035 38,463
(Tuticorin)
(%) yoy growth (4.2) (1.0) ‐ (14.6) (12.4) 9.2 (12.9) (4.9)
FY18 49,253 3,111 15,152 1,097 40,422 9,912 9,589 128,536
Others FY17 46,015 2,971 17,981 940 41,041 8,654 10,551 128,153
(%) yoy growth 7.0 4.7 (15.7) 16.7 (1.5) 14.5 (9.1) 0.3
FY18 214,311 29,391 48,590 15,055 145,862 133,626 92,524 679,359
All Ports FY17 199,878 28,172 49,964 14,070 139,283 124,578 92,453 648,398
(%) yoy growth 7.2 4.3 (2.7) 7.0 4.7 7.3 0.1 4.8
Source: IPA, IIFL Research

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