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HOW CAN THE CONGRESS ASSURE A VICTORY IN CHHATTISGARH?

Binit Agrawal, Founder-Editor: Law School Policy Review

A recent survey by CVoter has suggested that the Congress Party will wrest 54 seats, with a
40% vote share in Chhattisgarh. As against this the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is projected
to win 33 seats and receive the blessings of 39% of the electorate. Both the BJP and the
Congress, hence, are expected to capture a smaller vote share as compared to the previous
elections (which was 41.18% and 40.43%, respectively), thanks to the Janata Congress, a
Congress breakaway, led by former Chief Minister Ajit Jogi. The extremely close gaps (in the
2013 elections it was a mere 0.75%) and the triangular twist make Chhattisgarh one of the most
complicated states for both the Congress and the BJP. The Congress will benefit from anti-
incumbency, an abated Modi Leher (which was at its peak by the end of 2013) lesser internal
feuds and continued support of Scheduled Tribes. Against this the BJP is set to gain from Jogi’s
entry. But in this triangle, there are some patches, which can become game changer for the
Congress. In other words, Congress needs to quickly act on a pre-poll alliance with the Bahujan
Samaj Party (BSP) and the Gondwana Ganatantra Party (GGP).

THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM


In the 2013 elections the BSP secured a 4.29% vote share, winning one seat. While this doesn’t
seem to be a significant presence, it becomes extremely relevant when one undertakes an
analysis of voting matrix of individual constituencies. There were at least 11 seats where the
BSP secured more than 10% vote share, most of which were won by the BJP. Further, and very
interestingly, BSP’s vote count were close to nil on the seats which were won by the Congress
and materially significant on those won by the BJP. In 2013, in some 20 constituencies won by
the BJP or Independents, the BSP’s share of votes polled was close to equal or more than the
margin by which the Congress lost.1 This makes the Congress and the BSP natural allies in
Chhattisgarh.

THE OTHERS
Apart from the BSP, there were two other major parties in the 2013 elections. The Gondwana
Ganatantra Party (GGP) and the Chhattisgarh Swabhiman Manch(CSM). Both enjoyed

1
These include: Bharatpur-Sonhat; Baikunthpur; Pathalgaon; Sarangarh; Mungeli; Takhatpur;
Beltara; Sakti; Chandrapur; Pamgarh; Mahasamund; Bilaigarh; Kasdol; Dharsiwa; Rajim;
Durg Gramin; Pandariya; Kawardha; Dongargarh;
significant support in their bases and were in favour with 1.57% and 1.73% of the state
electorate, respectively.

The GGP secured vote shares of 15-30% in some 4 seats, making it a strong contender in its
bastion. Out of these 4 seats, 3 were won by the BJP. Moreover, the party fights on an agenda
of tribal rights. Hence, there is an overlap in the ideology and agenda of the Congress and that
of the GGP. This makes it a worthy and much needed ally of the Congress, especially after the
departure of Ajit Jogi, Congress’ most popular tribal face.

As against this, the CSM, a party for OBC (Other Backward Castes) rights, has since merged
with the BJP. It enjoyed upwards of 10% vote share in some 3 seats, 2 of which were won by
the BJP. This secures BJP’s hold over these 3 seats.

THE SC-ST CONUNDRUM


In the 2013 elections, of the 10 Scheduled Caste (SC) seats BJP secured 9. In case of the ST
seats, which number to 29, Congress won 18, with rest of of them going to the BJP. These total
to BJP winning in 20 of the 39 seats reserved for the Dalits. This is a surprising trend, given
Dalit voters usually prefer Congress or other state parties, like the BSP, in rest of the country.

This fact can be explained by the strong grass-root presence of RSS as a missionary
organization in most of the backward areas of Chhattisgarh. RSS is present in the form of
Vanavasi Kalayan Parishad, Vidya Bharati and Seva Bharati in these areas.2 The organization
runs thousands of schools, dispensaries, and blood banks, providing basic amenities to millions,
hiring lakhs and manufacturing believers. Statistical analysis has shown that this has increased
BJP’s reach into the Dalit vote bank by almost 55%.3 This strategy has worked in Chhattisgarh
owing to the lack of political organisation of these sections behind any major representative
party like those in other states. Consequently, BJP continues to enjoy widespread support.
However, issues like that of SC/ST (Prevention of Atrocities) Act are being used by the
Congress to target the BJP and there has been an increase in Dalit anger against the BJP. This

2
Thachil, Tariq and Herring, Ronald (2008) 'Poor choices: De-alignment, Development and
Dalit/Adivasi voting patterns in Indian states', Contemporary South Asia, 16:4, 441 — 464.
3
https://www.business-standard.com/article/politics/how-bjp-built-its-base-in-chhattisgarh-
113091000029_1.html; Thachil, Tariq and Herring, Ronald (2008) 'Poor choices: De-
alignment, Development and Dalit/Adivasi voting patterns in Indian states', Contemporary
South Asia, 16:4, 441 — 464.
has led the RSS to hold Dalit Chintan recently, signifying great tension within the BJP owing
to Dalit disillusionment.4

JOGI: KINGMAKER?
Ajit Jogi, the first Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh and a tall Congress leader in the state was
removed from the party a few years back. He has avenged himself by starting his own party,
the Chhattisgarh Janata Congress. While he hasn’t been able to secure substantial resources
and change ground dynamics, there are certain Jogi strongholds where severe dents will be
made on Congress’ vote share. But one cannot read too much into Ajit Jogi’s challenge. His
popularity had taken a plunge and is yet to shine. He is primarily known as a tribal face. Given
the high possibility that significant tribal vote will migrate to the Congress from the BJP and
the strong support base, the Congress, as a party, enjoys in ST seats, it is unlikely that the Jogi
factor will have a strong influence on the Party’s prospects in these areas. Furthermore, Jogi
had alienated most of the OBC, middle and upper class, urban and trading community votes
from the Congress.5 He was also a source of continued infighting within the Congress. Thus,
Jogi’s departure has a potential to significantly benefit the Congress in the entire state. As an
interesting fact to note, Renu Jogi (Ajit Jogi’s wife) continues to seek a Congress ticket.

CONCLUSION

The Congress can reap huge electoral gains if it secures a pre-poll alliance with the BSP and
the GGP. This will cumulatively benefit all three of them. Given the fact that there were some
23 seats won by the BJP which could have been won by a similar alliance in the 2013 elections,
even on conservative calculations, a partnership can help the alliance secure almost 2/3rd of the
seats. Further, once a pre-poll alliance is formed, it will lead to a synergy of resources and
create a discourse favouring the alliance. This will also help the alliance take benefit of the
dwindling popularity of the BJP amongst Dalits across the country. This will not just secure
Chhattisgarh for the opposition but will give a huge boost to the United Opposition’s prospects
in the Lok Sabha elections.

4
https://www.news18.com/news/politics/bjp-conducts-dalit-chintan-to-understand-why-they-
are-angry-with-party-1851925.html
5
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/congress-does-not-have-a-face-in-
chhattisgarh-who-is-hated-like-ajit-jogi-pn-punia/story-fskAu2TY2OcTyFbkIDWARI.html

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