EEE 6906

Reliability of Power System

Frequency and Duration Concepts
October 2017

A H Chowdhury
Professor, EEE, BUET
Table of Contents

 Concept of transition rate

 Concept of frequency
 Availability/Unavailability
 Concept of frequency balance
 Example: two component system

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Concept of Transition Rate

 Consider two system states i and j

 Transition rate from state i to j is the mean number of transitions from state i to j
per unit of time in state i
 If the system is observed for T hours and Ti hours are spent in state i, then the
transition rate from state i to j is given by

𝑛ij = number of transitions from state i to j during the period of observation

Four state model

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Concept of Transition Rate

Example: A 2 state component

 Let UP state be #0 and Down state be #1
λ
 Transition rate from up to down state State 0 State 1
component component
= failure rate, λ operable failed
μ
= n01 / T0 = 1 / (T0 / n01)= 1/ MUT
Where, MUT= mean up time

 Transition rate from down to up state

= repair rate, μ
= n10 / T1 = 1 / (T1 / n01)= 1/ MDT
Where, MDT = mean down time of the component

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Table of Contents

 Concept of transition rate

 Concept of frequency
 Availability/Unavailability
 Concept of frequency balance
 Example: two component system

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Concept of Frequency

 Frequency of encountering state j from state i is the expected (mean) number of

transitions from state i to state j per unit time
 Fr(i→j) = steady state or average frequency of transition from state i to j
= nij / T
= (Ti / T) (nij / Ti)
= pi λij
Where, pi = long term fraction of time spent in state i
= steady state probability of system state i
 In steady state or average behavior,
– Frequency of encountering a state (or a subset of states) equals the frequency of exiting from
the state (or the subset of states)

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Table of Contents

 Concept of transition rate

 Concept of frequency
 Availability/Unavailability
 Concept of frequency balance
 Example: two component system

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Availability/Unavailability

λ
Single component repairable system State 0 State 1
state space diagram component component
operable failed
μ

Mean time/state diagram

λ = failure rate of component m = mean operating time of component

μ = repair rate of component r = mean repair time of component

Probability of residing in operable state (Availability) 

P 0 + P1 = 1
Probability of residing in failed state (Unavailability) 

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Availability/Unavailability

 m = mean operating time of component = mean time to failure (MTTF) = 1/λ

 r = mean repair time of component = mean time to repair (MTTR) = 1/μ

 T = m + r = system cycle time = mean time between failures (MTBF) = m + r =1/f

 f = cycle frequency = frequency of encountering a system state

 For a two state system frequency of encountering operating state is same as that
of encountering failed state

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Availability/Unavailability

Problem of describing behaviour of a system only by state probabilities

 Consider two single component systems

– System 1 component reliability indices λ and μ

– System 2 component reliability indices 2λ and 2μ

 availability and unavailability same for both systems

 System 2 fails twice as often but is repaired twice as fast

– This can have major effect on operation of system and its economics

 It is vital to evaluate not only availability (or unavailability) of system but

also frequency and duration of encountering various states of system

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Table of Contents

 Concept of transition rate

 Concept of frequency
 Availability/Unavailability
 Concept of frequency balance
 Example: two component system

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Concept of Frequency Balance

Method of evaluating frequency and duration indices

 Probability of residing in any state of system equal to mean residence time of that state
divided by mean cycle time for that state to occur

 This concept applies to all repairable systems no matter how many system states exist

If, P(S)  probability of residing in state S

m(S)  mean time spent in state S

T(S)  mean time between encounters of state S

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Concept of Frequency Balance

and therefore,

 Frequency of encountering the up state = Poλ

= (probability of being in the state) x (rate of departure from the state)
= P1μ = (probability of NOT being in the state) x (rate of entry into the state)

If f(S)  frequency of encountering a state

P(S)  probability of being in the state
 probability of NOT being in the state
λd(S)  rate of departure from the state
λe(S) rate of entry into the state
Mean duration of a state, is
reciprocal of its rate of departure

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Table of Contents

 Concept of transition rate

 Concept of frequency
 Availability/Unavailability
 Concept of frequency balance
 Example: two component system

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Example: Two Component System

State probabilities State space diagram for

two component system
The state probabilities are

If the two components are identical, i.e., λ1= λ2 = λ

and μ1 = μ2 = μ, state probabilities are

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Example: Two Component System

 Individual states of the system are mutually exclusive, therefore

 for a series system Pup = P1 Pdown = P2 + P3 + P4

 for a parallel system Pup = P1 + P2 + P3 Pdown = P4

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Example: Two Component System

Frequency of encountering individual states

Rates of departure and entry

State Component Component Rate of Rate of
number 1 2 departure entry
1 up up λ1 + λ2 μ1 + μ2

2 down up λ2 + μ1 λ1 + μ2

3 up down λ1 + μ2 λ2 + μ1

4 down Down μ1 + μ2 λ1 + λ2

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Example: Two Component System

Frequency of encountering states

f1 = frequency of encountering state 1
= P1 x (rate of departure from state 1)

Also, Applies only to the

communicating states
for state 1, i.e. states
are 2 and 3

f4 = frequency of encountering state 4

= P4 x (rate of departure from state 4)

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Example: Two Component System

State probabilities and frequencies

Cycle time between

State frequency individual states
When two components are identical,
i.e., λ1= λ2 = λ and μ1 = μ2 = μ

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Example: Two Component System

Mean duration of individual states

For the case of identical components

For system containing two identical components

 m1 is the MTTF of a series system
 m4 is the MTTR of a parallel system

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