Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Thesis
submitted to
by
Syed Mohammed
Shah e Alam
i
Abstract
During the past century, large amounts of greenhouse gases - primarily carbon dioxide,
nitrous oxide, and methane - have been added to the atmosphere. These gases are
generated due to the burning of fossilfuels, mainly to power vehicles, industries, utilities
greenhouse gases has resulted in unprecedented warming of several parts of the world,
including India.More than half of the Indian population depends upon agriculture and
allied activities for their livelihood. Since monsoonal rainfall is the lifeline of agriculture,
any discernible changes in the precipitation patterns caused due to the warming of the
atmosphere are likely to adversely impact the economy of the country. Climate change,
to its huge and growing population, a 7500-km long, densely populated and low-lying
coastline, and an economy that is closely tied to its natural resource base.
climate change impacts in Satluj river basin in India. The Satluj River originates from
Mansarowar lake in Tibet at an elevation of about 4572 m, and is a major tributary of the
River Indus. The entire Satluj basin lies between latitudes 30° and 33° N and longitudes
76° and 83°E. The Satluj River enters the Indian state of Himachal Pradesh at Shipkila at
an altitude of 6,608 meters, and flows in the south-westerly direction through Kinnaur,
ii
Shimla, Kullu, Solan, Mandi and Bilaspur districts. The total length of the river is 1,448
km. The Satluj leaves Himachal Pradesh to enter the plains of Punjab at Bhakra, where
the India's highest gravity dam has been constructed. The catchment area of the Satluj to
Bhakra dam is about 56,876 km² of which 36,900 km² lies in Tibet and 19,975 km² in
India.
variables was, therefore, carried out in the present research. The results clearly revealed a
greater number of increasing trends in most of the variables investigated than could be
expected to occur by chance. A clear warming pattern was observed in the basin with the
majority of the stations (six of eight) exhibiting increasing trends in annual average
decreasing trend in annual TMX. The trends in annual average minimum temperatures
(TMN) were, however, mixed with a bias towards increasing trends.The increased
warming in the basin could have implications for water availability in the basin as the
contribution of snow and glacier melt to annual runoff at Bhakra reservoir is about 60%.
the tropical Pacific Ocean can have major effects on weather conditions around the
world. The ENSO has shown greater variability in recent decades, indicating that it may
strengthen under climate change. The present research investigated the linkages of both
warm and cool phases of ENSOwith the monsoonal precipitation in the Satluj River
iii
basin. The results indicated a negative association between the warm phase and
monsoonal precipitation at the majority of stations in the basin. During the cool phase of
ENSO, a positive association between the monsoonal precipitation was observed in the
majority of stations. It was concluded from the analysis of linkages of ENSO with
monsoonal precipitation in the basin that the warm phase of ENSO is associated with
Bhakra - a major dam in the basin - a SWAT based hydrological model for the basin was
PRECIS generated outputs of climate variables for two future time slices of interest;
midcentury (2021-2050) and endcentury (2071-2098) were estimated under A1B, A2 and
Bhakra under all the three scenarios. The increase observed in streamflows in the non-
projected higher temperatures for both the future periods considered. Since more than
half of the annual streamflow volume at Bhakra is contributed by glacier melt (Singh and
Jain, 2002), increased streamflows at the reservoir site points towards enhanced melting
in the upper parts of the basin.With increased streamflow volume at Bhakra, the
vulnerability of the basin to high magnitude flooding events is likely to increase under
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Major achievements of the present research include development and application of: (1) a
methodology for the detection of linkages between large scale climate indices and climate
variables, and (3) SWAT model for evaluating the hydrological response of the basin to
adverse impacts of climate change is critical for the sustainable development of the study
activities by the policy makers.The results presented herein could provide valuable aid to
v
Declaration
I, Syed Shahe Alam, student of Ph.D. hereby declare that the thesis titled
Engineering, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi in partial fulfilment of the requirement
for the award of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy has not previously formed the
basis for the award of any Degree, Diploma Associateship, Fellowship or other
similar title or recognition. This is to declare further that I have also fulfilled the
requirements of para 8 (viii and ix) of the Ph.D. Ordinance, the details of which are
10 February 2016
vi
Certificate
To the best of our knowledge this work has not been submitted in part or full for any
Degree or Diploma to this University or elsewhere.
vii
Acknowledgements
First of all, I am thankful to ALLAH THE ALMIGHTY for helping me in every aspect of
life.
I wish to express sincere gratitude to mythesis supervisor Prof. Mohammed Sharif, for his
continued support throughout my study. His suggestions and comments have greatly
helped me throughout the course of this work.He has been benevolent enough to take
time out from his busy schedule for this project and supported me in every respect.I have
learned a lot from his broad and profound knowledge during the long hours that we have
spent together. It has been a pleasure working under his guidance.
I am thankful for the support provided by the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific
Research of Iraq, the university of Mosul, Mosul, Iraq.I would like to thank my donor
agency,the Indian Council for Cultural Relations (ICCR), India for providing me the fund
to pursue my studies, and Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, for
providing us the data used in this research.
I am deeply indebted to my father, mother, my wife, brothers and sisters for their untiring
spiritual encouragement, patience and sacrifices. Finally, I thank all those who helped me
directly or indirectly in the completion of this thesis.
Ayman T. Hamid
Date : January 2015
Place: New Delhi
viii
Contents
Abstract ii
Declaration vi
Certificate vii
Acknowledgements viii
Contents ix
List of Figures xii
List of Tables xiii
1. INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 General 1
1.2 Background 5
1.3 Motivation for Work 7
1.4 Objectives of The Present Research 8
1.5 Thesis Contributions 9
1.6 Organisation of The Thesis 10
2. LITERATURE REVIEW 12
2.1 General 12
2.2 Global Climate Change Studies 13
2.3 Climate Change Studies in South-East Asia 15
2.4 Climate Change Studies in Himalayan Region 18
2.5 Hydro-Climatic Studies in Satluj River Basin Error! Bookmark not defined.
2.6 Climate Change Impact Studies in the Middle-east region 21
3. STUDY AREA AND DATA USED 25
3.1 Description of The Study Area 25
3.1.1 Satluj River in Himachal Pradesh Error! Bookmark not defined.
3.2 Data Used 28
3.3 Global Climate Models 28
3.4 Regional Climate Models 30
ix
3.5 Climatic Scenarios 33
3.6 RCPs 36
4. TREND ANALYSIS OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA 41
4.1 General 41
4.2 Time Series Analysis 41
4.3 Mann-Kendall Nonparametric Test 42
4.4 Datasets Used 45
4.5 Trend Analysis of Temperature Data 46
4.5.1 Trends in Average Temperature 51
4.5.2 Seasonal Trends in TMX 53
4.5.3 Seasonal Trends in TMN 54
4.6 Precipitation Trends 56
4.6.1 Trends in Annual and Monsoon Rainfall 57
4.7 Discussion and Conclusions 58
5. PROJECTED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES
OVER KUWAIT 62
5.1 Introduction 62
5.2 Methodology 63
5.2.1 The Climate Wizard Tool 63
5.3 Methodology 64
5.3.1 Climate Change Knowledge Portal 65
5.4 Temperature Projections 66
5.5 Conclusions 67
6. ENERGY-TEMPERATURE MODELING USING R PACKAGE 68
7. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 70
7.1 Summary of the Work Carried Out 70
7.2 Achievement of The Research 74
7.3 Limitations of The Research 75
7.4 Recommendations for Further Research 76
7.4.1 Trend Analysis 76
7.4.2 Linkages of Climate Indices 77
7.4.3 Hydrological Modelling 77
x
References 80
xi
List of Figures
Figure 1.3 Departure of temperatures from 1961-1990 average under different scenariosError! Bookmar
Figure 3.1 Location, stream network and DEM of Satluj River Basin 28
Figure 3.2 Image of Satluj Basin obtained using Google EarthError! Bookmark not defined.
Figure 3.3 A screen shot of the RCP on-line database showing RPC6.0 spatial data for
industry emissions for the year 2020. 37
Figure 3.4 RCP on-line database graphic showing RCP6 spatial data for industry
COe emissions for the year 2010 38
Figure 3.5 RCP on-line database graphic showing the projected RCP6 emissions
in the year 2100. 39
Figure 4.4 The spatial distribution of average TMN (°C) at Satluj Basin (1985-2010) 48
Figure 4.8 Barplots of average monthly rainfall at different stations in Satluj Basin 57
xii
List of Tables
xiii
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 General
During the past century, large amounts of greenhouse gases - primarily carbon dioxide,
nitrous oxide, and methane - have been added to the atmosphere. These greenhouse gases
are generated mainly due to the burning of fossils to power vehicles, industries, utilities
and appliances. Due to the rapid increase in industrial production and spur in economic
growth in many parts of the world, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere is exhibiting an increasing trend. The alarming fact is that emissions have not
enhanced greenhouse effect which is likely to lead to an upward trend in global average
climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the
variability observed over comparable time periods". According to IPCC (IPCC 2007a),
increases in global average air and water temperatures, widespread melting of snow and
Climate change is perceived to be the biggest challenge facing the mankind today. Many
aspects of the natural environment are likely to be impacted due to change in the climate.
1
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) defines
climate change as "a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human
activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to
natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods." Warming of the
average air and water temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising
global average sea level” (IPCC 2007a, Working Group I Summary for Policymakers, p.
5). During the past century, humans have substantially added huge amount of gases in the
atmosphere by burning fossil fuels such as coal, natural gas, oil and gasoline to power
cars, factories, utilities and appliances. These gases -primarily carbon dioxide, nitrous
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is emitted naturally during respiration by plants and by all
animals, fungi, and micro-organisms that depend either directly or indirectly on plants for
food. It is also generated as a by-product of the combustion of fossil fuels or the burning
of vegetable matter, among other chemical processes. Other sources of CO2 include
volcanoes, geothermal processes such as hot springs and geysers and dissolution of
carbonates in crustal rocks. Methane (CH4) is another major greenhouse gas and can lead
to more rapid global warming than CO2. It is emitted from burning of fuel in vehicles.
Cattle ranching are another major source of methane emissions. Demand for dairy
products has shown a rapid growth in recent years leading to huge increase in methane
emissions. Flooded rice cultivation produces methane by the fermentation of the organic
matter in the soil. It is released from submerged soils through the roots and stems of rice
2
plants. The variation of concentration of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere is
shown in Figure 1.1 and Figure 1.2 respectively. It can be seen from Figure 1.1 and
Figure 1.2 that the concentration of CO2 and CH4 began to increase in the atmosphere
around 1760 – the time when the first industrial revolution began. Further increase in the
also known as the Technological Revolution - a phase of the larger industrial revolution
corresponding to the latter half of the 19th century until World War I. During the 20th
century the rate of increase of concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has
been rapid.
3
Figure 1.2 Variation of CH4 concentration with time
Due to huge emissions, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is likely
to double by 2050 (Jenkins and Derwint, 1990). In most developing countries, climate
change represents an additional stress on ecological and socioeconomic systems that are
economic development. Results of several recent studies have confirmed that the Asian
region is indeed warming, and the trend of warming is broadly consistent with the global
warming trend (Singh et al. 2008). As a consequence, many aspects of the natural
Global warming is responsible for the ongoing change in climate being experienced in
almost all parts of the world including the middle-east. The problems caused by climate
change are amplified for regions that are likely to be impacted economically. Most of the
4
middle-east is economically strong and therefore highly vulnerable to the impacts of
climate change. The phenomenon of climate change has a cascading effect which means
a problem in one part of the world gets transported to other parts of the world in a slow
but steady manner. In the middle-east which has a hot climate, the impact of global
warming will be significant. Adaptation to changing climate is therefore crucial for the
countries in the middle-east region. A significant impact of the ongoing climate change is
likely also on the bio-diversity of the Middle East region. Many world organizations have
established strategic plans for climate change such as the Global Strategy for Plant
Conservation which was adopted in 2002 by the conference of the Parties of the
stress due to natural and anthropogenic factors. Kuwait being a prominent country of the
middle-east region is vulnerable to the degrading effects and risks of climate change.
1.2 Background
There is ample evidence to suggest that global climate is changing in an unprecedented
manner largely due to increase in global mean temperatures (Folland et al. 2001a, b;
Jones and Moberg, 2003) and perceptible changes in precipitation patterns in different
parts of the world. Global mean temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.07 °C per
decade over the last century, but the warming has not been uniform everywhere with high
northern latitudes particularly affected (Jones and Moberg 2003). A large percentage of
the warming during the late period of record is likely due to anthropogenic activities
difficult to explain solely by our understanding of the natural variability of the climate
5
system. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC 2007) showed a global warming of about 0.2°C decade-1 for a range of
emission scenarios outlined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) over
the next 2 decades. An alarming fact is that the rate at which greenhouse gas emissions in
the atmosphere are increasing in the atmosphere is unlikely to decrease in the near term.
Even if the greenhouse gases and aerosols were to stabilize around year 2000 levels, a
0.1°C per decade global increase in temperatures is projected (IPCC 2007). The impacts
Global climate models (GCMs) predict a near-surface warming trend under rising levels
it is perceived that global warming will lead to an increased vigour in the hydrological
cycle, and, therefore, increased water availability. However, more complex impacts may
be experienced in snow and glacier dominated regions, where annual water availability is
closely linked to winter snowfall and summer melt. Carbon dioxide is a major greenhouse
house emitted in huge quantities from vehicular emissions - a major source of global
warming. Currently, CO2 emissions from the transportation sector in India are at 15%, but
it is projected to increase to 25 % in the next decade mainly due to rapid growth in the
likely to exhibit increasing trends, which makes India highly vulnerable to the impacts of
climate change.
6
1.3 Motivation for Work
Carbon dioxide emissions from countries such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates
(UAE) are high compared with Europe. In Qatar and UAE it is 59.56 and 29.2 metric
tonne per capita respectively. By comparison the figures for the European Union (EU)
and the United States of America (USA) are 8.09 and 17.82 respectively. Temperatures in
the Gulf region have increased 50 percent faster than the global average. This was
revealed in a World Bank report presented alongside the Doha summit in Qatar in
November 2012. Kuwait, for example, measured temperatures in excess of 52 °C. Kuwait
has been blessed with oil and gas but unfortunately does not have adequate fresh water,
and also have a hot climate. The ability to grow food is limited as well. Many climate
change issues are exclusive to Kuwait. Due to hot and humid climate, the demand for
desalination of water. Both the air-conditioning and desalination are highly energy
intensive processes. Burning fossil fuels (primarily gas) to produce electricity and water
releases greenhouse gases, mainly Carbon di oxide. In fact, approximately 90% of the
CO2 that Kuwait emits is caused by the process of burning fossil fuels to provide energy.
As a result, large amount of CO2 emissions are released in the atmosphere. Undoubtedly
climate change will impact Kuwait as well as other middle-east countries significantly in
the future.
Temperature is an important climatic parameter that drives the energy demand. Analysis
7
increased temperatures, the demand of electricity is expected to increase. Any major
changes in the electricity demnad arising out of changes in temperature may have a
utmost importance to understand and identify the changes that have taken place in the
past in order to be able to consider their impact in future planning and design activities.
Therefore, it is important to analyze trends in histrorical temperature data for the Kuwait
under different global climate models shall be obtained and analyzed in order to be able
Global warming coupled with changing weather patterns and extreme weather events is
likely to affect energy demand and impact energy production and transmission in many
parts of the world, including Kuwait. Therefore, the major objective of the proposed
research is to analyze the impacts of climate change on the energy sector in Kuwait. The
energy sector produces the largest share of greenhouse gases, and is directly responsible
for surface air temperature increases. The aim of the proposed research is to develop
policies that would assist in meeting the internationally agreed 2°C target for global
circulation models and emission scenarios. The specific objectives of the proposed
8
research are as follows.
To explore and recommend various options which would enable the energy sector to
To explore and recommend options that can result in substantial mitigation of greenhouse
temperature changes for the two future time periods, namely mid century (2050) and end
century (2100) will be carried out. A major output of the proposed research will be a
predictive statistical model for energy demand in Kuwait under different scenarios of
climate change. Based upon the derived relationships, it would be possible to forecast
future energy demands under different combinations of global circulation models and
9
emission scenarios. A number of strategies through which the energy sector could
improve its resilience to climate change will be recommended. Several steps that could be
taken by the government of Kuwait to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change
shall be suggested. Strategies for effective utilization of available energy and reduction of
energy demands shall also be recommended. Finally, the research shall make
the stakeholders in the energy sector. The findings of the proposed research would assist
the decision makers in Kuwait to devise strategies to curtail greenhouse gas emissions
information, motivation for work and provides the objectives and contributions of the
present research. It brings to focus the problems experienced in the Kuwait region in light
climate change impact studies in the middle-east region has been presented.
Chapter 3 presents a description of the Kuwait city - the study area for the region. The
climate and topography of the study area has been described in this chapter. The details
10
of data used in the present study have been described in this chapter.
Chapter 4 describes the methodology for the analysis of trends in the hydro-
Chapter 5 presents the analysis of projected temperature changes in the Kuwait region
for different combinations of global climate models (GCMs) and future time scales.
Chapter 6 describes the methodology for the development of relationship between energy
Chapter 7 presents the provides the conclusions of the research. The chapter lists the
achievement of the research and outlines the limitations of the work carried out. Several
recommendetions to improve the resilience of energy sector to climate change have been
made in this chapter. A number of strategies that can result in substantial mitigation of
greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector have been described in this chapter.
11
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 General
This chapter presents a review of literature relevant to the present research. The review of
literature presented in this chapter was considered essential in order to put the work
carried out in this thesis in context.The rising concentration of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere due to human activities such as land use changes and dependence upon fossil
fuels has led to global warming and global energy unbalance (Huang et al., 2011; Rashid
and Babel, 2012). A major impact of climate change is on the occurrence of extreme
precipitation events leading to increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events
such as floods and droughts (IPPC, 2007). Changes in the total amount of precipitation -
its frequency and intensity - when on the surplus side may affect the magnitude and
timing of runoff, but would create drought like situations when on the deficit side
(Gosain et al. 2006). As a result, hydrological systems are anticipated to experience not
only the changes in the average availability of water but also changes in the climate
extremes(Simonovic and Li, 2003; Klein et al. 2003). One of the most important and
immediate effects of global warming would be the changes in local and regional water
availability (Jiang et al., 2007). The occurrence of droughts or floods and water resources
hydrological regimes has thus become a priority area, both for process research and for
12
2.2 Global Climate Change Studies
Temperature is an important climatic variable that affects the climate system (Sang
2012). Increase in temperature alters energy balance and tends to warm the atmosphere
resulting in changes in the climate (Dibike and Coulibaly 2005;Li et al. 2011). The fourth
Assessment Report (4AR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had
reported a 0.74°C increase in the global mean surface temperature during the last hundred
years (1906-2005). In the last 50 years, a significant increasing trend with a rate of
0.13°C every 10 years has been reported. The average global temperature increased by
approximately 0.6±0.20C during the 20th century, which was greater than in any other
century in the last 1,000 years. The warming rate became even more pronounced during
the second half of the last century, which was predominantly due to the increase in
Crutzen, 1993). During the 21st century, the global mean surface temperature is projected
Streamflow records provide indications of the extent of the climate change impacts on
water resources. The effects of climate change on streamflow and related variables are
and Burn 1997). Numerous studies have been carried out in various regions of the world
view to detect impacts of climate change. Burns et al. (2007) analyzed recent climate
trends and its implications for water resources in the Catskill region of United States of
13
America using 9 temperature, 12 precipitation and 8 hydrometric sites. Fleming and
Columbia and the Yukon.Déry and Wood (2005) found a decreasing trend in streamflow
in the Canadian Arctic, and attributed it to various large scale atmospheric phenomena.
Novontny and Stefan (2007) examined stream flow records from 36 gauging stations in
five major river basins of Minnesota, USA for trend and correlations using Mann-Kendal
test and moving averages method. Andrea and Depetris (2007) present an overview of
discharge trends and flow dynamics of South American rivers draining the southern
Atlantic seaboard. Lindstrom and Bergstrom (2004) analyzed time series of annual runoff
volumes and annual as well as seasonal flood peaks in Sweden. Zhang et al. (2001),
Hodgkins et al. (2003), and Hodgkins and Dudley (2006) used the centre of volume date
to define the timing of runoff. Burn (1994) and Westmacott & Burn (1997) examined the
impacts of climate change on the timings of spring runoff. Burn et al. (2004a, b)
gauging stations for the Liard and Mackenzie River Basin in northern Canada. Both
basins exhibited an increase in winter flows and some increase in spring runoff. Aziz and
Burn (2006) and Burn (2008) noted earlier onset of the spring freshet over Mackenzie
River Basin. Novotny and Stefan (2007) observed that the threat of flooding has
increased due to rainfall events than snow melt in five major river Basins of Minnesota,
USA. It was concluded that the threat of flooding has increased due to rainfall events than
due to snow melt.A brief overview of techniques used for trend detection has been
14
2.3 Climate Change Studies in South-East Asia
Impacts of climate change on hydrological systems may vary from region to region. Most
rivers in this region originate from the Himalayas, and therefore a significant impact on
hydrological regime cannot be ruled out. In south Asia, the melting of Himalayan glaciers
is the major concern arising out of the changed climate in the region, which would have
serious implications for water availability in the region. Several studies have reported that
warming has taken place over India (Arora et al. 2005, Singh et al. 2008), Bangladesh
(Ahmad and Warrick 1996), and Nepal (Shrestha et al. 1999). Shrestha et al. (1999)
reported increases of 0.61°C, 0.90°C and 1.24°C per decade in winter maximum
Arora et al. (2005) investigated temperature trend all over India. The results showed that
mean temperature has increased by 0.94°C per 100 years for the post monsoon season
and 1.1°C per 100 years for the winter season. Singh et al. (2008) analysed temperature
records of nine river basins in northwest and central India using Mann-Kendall non-
parametric test. Results of analysis revealed that 7 of 9 basins have a warming trend.
Singh et al. (2007) indicated an increasing trend of annual rainfall and relative humidity
in northwest and central Indian river basins. The minimum variation was observed in
monsoon rainfall. Dash and Hunt (2007) investigated the temperature and precipitation
trends over north and south Indian parts. Jhajharia et al. (2009) reported that in yearly and
seasonal rainfall of northeast India, no significant trends at eight sites, increasing trend at
two sites while decreasing trend at one site were observed in winter rainfall out of a total
of eleven sites.
15
Marco et al. (2003) analyzed temperature data of 160 climate stations in China using
detected all over the country; however the negative trend was detected in high latitude
regions during summer. Winter period showed a warming trend with 95% significant
temperature rise of 0.9°C for Pakistan by 2020 and predicted that the temperature rise
could double by 2050. Overall, increasing temperature trend was reported in China and
negative trend was detected in high latitude regions during summer. Fowler & Archer
(2005) examined temperature data (1961-99) of seven climate stations in the Karakoram
and Hindukush mountains using regression techniques, and detected a winter warming
and a summer cooling trend. Immerzeel (2007) studied the monthly high-resolution
temperature and precipitation data from 1900-2002 for three physiographic zones viz.,
the Tibetan Plateau, the Himalayan belt and floodplains. Throughout the basin a warming
trend at an average rate of 0.6 °C per 100 years was revealed. All zones showed a larger
warming trend in spring and smallest trend in summer. However, the study did not reveal
any trend in the precipitation and suggested that the annual precipitation is primarily
Many precipitation trend studies have also been carried out in the South Asia region
(e.g.Zhang et al. 2005, Huang 2009). Changes in the total amount of precipitation, its
frequency and intensity when on the surplus side may affect the magnitude and timing of
runoff, but shall create drought-like situations when these are on the deficit side
(Gosainet al. 2006). On the contrary, Raziei et al. (2005) concluded that precipitation in
16
Iran has a decreasing trend. Kezer and Matsuyama (2006) investigated runoff trends for
Ili and East rivers in central Asia. No statistically significant change was observed except
for runoff. Chen et al. (2007) investigated temporal (1951-2003) trends of annual and
seasonal precipitation, temperature and runoff in the Hanjiang basin in China using
Mann-Kendall and the linear regression methods. Results indicated that precipitation has
no significant trend, but a significant increasing trend for temperature was seen in most
parts of the basin. Further, decreasing trend was seen in mean annual, spring, and winter
runoffs in the Danjiangkou reservoir basin. Hua et al. (2007) analysed temporal trends of
annual and seasonal precipitation and temperature in the Hanjiang basin in China using
Mann-Kendall and linear regression techniques. It was observed that temperature has a
significant upward trend, but precipitation has no trend. Analysis of temporal trends of
runoff in Danjiangkou reservoir basin indicated an increasing trend. Zhang et al. (2006)
investigated trends in water levels and streamflow in Yangtze river basin in China.
Results of several recent studies have confirmed that the South Asia region is indeed
warming and the trend of warming is broadly consistent with the global warming trend.
are anticipated to experience potentially serious climate impacts in the South Asia region.
Recent IPCC report (IPCC, 2007a) clearly indicates the likelihood of considerable
warming over sub-regions of South Asia with greater warming in winter than in summer.
Results of multimodel GCM runs under Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES)
B1 and A1F1 project an increase in average temperature over the whole of South Asia
with the greatest increase being projected for winter months. The projected rise in
17
temperature for the winter months is particularly alarming as it exceeds the limit of global
mean surface temperature rise of 1.8 to 4°C reported by IPCC (IPCC, 2007b).
region, and is therefore known as the third pole (Schild 2008). The Himalayan mountain
system is the source of one of the world’s largest supplies of fresh water. All the major
South Asian rivers originate in the Himalayas and their upper catchments are covered
with snow and glaciers. Global climate models (GCMs) for the region predict a near-
surface warming trend under rising levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases, which may
be enhanced at higher elevations (Sharif et al. 2012). The now-refuted statements (IPCC,
2007) concerning the predicted rapid retreat and disappearance of Himalayan glaciers and
consequent drastic reduction in downstream river flows has spurred vigorous debate on
changes in glacier mass balance (Berthier et al., 2007) and river flow, and the nature and
role of climate trends and variability (Immerzeel et al., 2008; Jain et al. 2009;Bookhagen
and Burbank, 2010) in the region. Climate change concerns in the Himalayan region are
diverse and range from floods, droughts, landslides (Barnett et al. 2005), human health,
biodiversity, endangered species, agriculture livelihood, and food security (Xu et al.
understanding of links between climate, glacier mass balance and river flow for the
region remains weak (Stahl et al., 2008) both for direct analysis and for validation of
18
A limited number of studies have been carried out in the Himalayan region to analyze
available temperature and precipitation data in the basin. Bhutiyani et al. (2007) found a
significant rise in air temperature in the northwest Himalayan (NWH) region by about
1.6°C in the last century, with winters warming at a faster rate. The diurnal temperature
range (DTR) also showed a significantly increasing trend. This appears to be due to a rise
in both the maximum as well as minimum temperatures, with the maximum increasing
much more rapidly. In general, it is thought that global warming will cause an
intensification of the hydrological cycle and thus, increased water availability. However,
in snow and glacier dominated regions, where annual water availability is closely related
to winter snowfall and summer melt, changes in temperature may have more complex
impacts.Dash et al. (2007) report that during the last few decades, the Himalayan and
Tibetan Plateau region have been warming at a rate higher than that in the last century.
0.6 °C/ 100 year for the 1901-2002 gridded dataset for the Brahmaputra basin in the
Fowler and Archer (2006) examined temperature data of seven climate stations in the
Karakoram and Hindu Kush mountains of the upper region of Upper Indus Basin for
seasonal and annual trends using regression techniques. Mean and maximum winter
temperatures showed consistent decline. Fowler and Archer (2006) found a consistent
increase in diurnal temperature range (DTR) in all seasons and annual dataset, which is in
19
direct contrast to studies in most parts of the world that show a narrowing of DTR (Karl
et al. 1993; Jones, 1999). Khattak et al. (2011) investigated trends in several hydro-
meteorological variables in the Indus River basin. Shrestha et al. (1999) analysed
maximum temperature data from 49 stations in Nepal for the period 1971–94 revealing
warming trends after 1977 ranging from 0.06° to 0.12°C per year in most of the Middle
Mountain and Himalayan regions, while the Siwalik and Terai (southern plains) regions
The Himalayan region has more than 12000 glaciers (ICIMOD, 2001), and the
contribution of snow and glacier melt to streamflow at Bhakra, the major reservoir in the
Satluj basin - the study area for the research - is around 59%. Any discernible trends in
temperature are likely to have an adverse impact on the availability of water in the basin.
Jain et al. (2008b) conducted a study to assess the accuracy of MODIS, NOAA and IRS
data in snow cover mapping under Himalayan conditions. The total snow cover area was
estimated using these three datasets for 15 dates spread over 4 years. The results were
compared with ground-based estimation of snow cover. A good agreement was observed
in snow cover area estimation was analysed for the three satellite datasets and it was
observed that MODIS produced better results. It was concluded that MODIS data could
be effectively used for snow cover area estimation under Himalayan conditions, which is
a vital parameter for snowmelt runoff estimation. Jain et al. (2008a) identified the
relationship between snow accumulation with elevation and aspect in rugged terrain in
the Himalayan region. The river basins of four tributaries of the River Indus i.e. Satluj,
20
Chenab, Ravi and Beas located in the western Himalaya were considered for the study.
Snow covered area was estimated for a period of 2 years (01 Jan 2003 to 17 Dec 2004)
using MODIS 8 days’ maximum snow cover products. A two-year average showed that
Satluj has the minimum snow covered area 23%, while Chenab has the highest snow
covered area, i.e. 42%, Ravi and Beas has 33% and 38% respectively. The minimum
elevation from where the snow covered area begins to appear has been calculated. It was
observed that in the case of Satluj, snow appears at a higher elevation (1,369 m)
compared to Chenab, Ravi and Beas where it appears at elevations of 834 m, 1058 m,
and 1264 m, respectively. It was found that the aspect variable has a major impact on
snow accumulation in the lower elevations in all the basins as compared to higher
elevations.
Climate change impacts are already visible in the Kingdom. A World Bank report
presented alongside the Doha summit in Qatar in November 2012 revealed that the rate of
increase of temperatures in the middle-east region is more than 50 percent higher than the
global average. This has resulted in an alarming situation for the region that is already
seeing temperatures in excess of 50 °C in some areas. The summer of 2010 was
exceptionally warm in the Arab region with temperatures reaching upto 52.0 °C in
Jeddah (WMO 2011). Gulf News reported that unprecedented heat in the summer of 2010
resulted in huge demand for electricity, forcing eight power plants to close down and
leaving several Saudi cities without power (Gulf News 2010). Contrastingly, Hail
(27.44◦N, 41.69◦E), a station located in the northern part of the country recorded a
minimum temperature of −10 ◦C on the 16th of January 2008. Such temperature extremes
could pose a serious impact on the socio-economic aspects such as agriculture, water
resources, power generation, human health, urbanization, drought, and cold- and heat-
21
wave extremes (Almazroui 2012 b).
Due to the scarcity of fresh water resources and uncertainty associated with rainfall, the
ability to grow food in Saudi Arabia is limited. Around half of the irrigation system in the
country depend on aquifers in the valley basins that are depleted occasionally due to low
precipitation (Alkolibi 2002). During the last decade, groundwater has extensively been
used for agriculture, which has caused groundwater depletion to alarming levels (Al
Zawad and Aksakal 2010, Alkolibi 2002). Surface and groundwater withdrawal as a
percentage of the total renewable water resources was estimated at 943% in 2007 and
92% of that is used by the agricultural sector (FAO 2009). At the same time, 100% of the
land under cultivation of wheat was in full or partial control irrigation schemes.
Regardless of climate change, the problem of unsustainable water use is so significant
that in January 2008 Saudi Arabia announced to halt wheat self-sufficiency policy and
phase out domestic wheat production entirely by 2016 (Souhail Karam (Reuters) 2008).
Understanding climate change issues require analysis of time series of climate data. In the
recent past, several studies have focussed on the analysis of climate data for Saudi
Arabia. Almazroui et al. (2013) analyzed trends in temperature extremes over Saudi
Arabia, and found that the temperature extremes in Saudi Arabia have increased
significantly in the recent-past (1996–2010) compared to the 1981–1995 period.
Almazroui et al. (2012a) found that the mean temperature in Saudi Arabia increased at
0.60 °C per decade for the period 1978−2010. Further findings of Almazroui et al.
(2012b) indicated that the warming rate is greater for the dry season (June to September)
compared to the wet season (November to April). Rehman (2010) analyzed temperature
data from a station in Dehran and found a warming trend of 0.5 °C per decade. ElNesr et
al. (2010) analyzed evapo-transpiration data from 29 weather stations in Saudi Arabia
over the period 1980-2008, and found a significant increase in the evapo-transpiration
over the study period, probably caused by an increase in temperature during the summer
months. Even though crops are predominantly grown on irrigated land, crop yield
(metric ton/ha) may decline due to increase in evapo-transpiration - a function of
22
temperature (FAO 2009). Chowdhury and Al-Zahrani (2013) investigated the
implications of climate change on water resources in Saudi Arabia. However, the grid
size considered by them was coarse (2.5 latitude and 3.75 longitude). Temperature
increases in the range of 1.8 °C to 4.1 °C were estimated which, the authors claim, would
increase the agricultural water demands by 5-15% to sustain current agricultural
production levels. Alkolibi (2002) assessed possible impacts of climate change on
agriculture and water resources in Saudi Arabia through the analysis of outputs from
global circulation models (GCMs). It was concluded that the increase in temperature
accompanied by a reduction in precipitation could have a major adverse impact on
agriculture and water supplies in Saudi Arabia.
Several researchers from around the world have investigated future changes in climatic
variables using different techniques. Yinlong et al. (2006) analyzed changes of surface air
temperature and precipitation in three time slices of the 21st century under A2 and B2
scenarios using PRECIS – a regional climate model system. It was demonstrated that the
extreme maximum temperature and precipitation events would increase, while the
extreme minimum temperature events would decrease during 2071 - 2100 under B2
scenario over China relative to baseline (1961 -1990) average. Serrat-Capdevela et al. (
2007) studied climate change impacts on the water budget and dynamics of aquifer in
south-eastern Arizona and northern Sonora in the USA using outputs from 17 GCMs.
The data from the GCMs were obtained by Serrat-Capdevela et al. ( 2007) using
MAGICC (The Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change).
Alam and Sharif (2013) carried out an assessment of climate change scenario in the
middle-east region with particular emphasis on the state of Kuwait. Al Zawad (2008)
studied the impact of climate change over Saudi Arabia using PRECIS. Analysis showed
warmer temperature, greater precipitation, less evaporation, and greater runoff with A2
scenario compared to B2. An average increase of 4.2 °C and 3 °C in the daily surface
average temperature over Saudi Arabia was estimated under A2 and B2 scenarios
respectively. Saudi Arabia is expected to experience mainly decreases in precipitation, in
common with the majority of the Middle East (UKMO 2011). Reductions of up to 20%
23
or higher are projected in the northwest of the country, with a strong ensemble
agreement. Smaller decreases are projected towards the south and east, while increases of
up to 20% or more projected for the far southeast (UKMO 2011).
24
3. STUDY AREA AND DATA USED
The study area for the present research is the State of Kuwait in the middle-east region.
Kuwait lies on the Arabian Gulf; its geography is made up of mostly flat desert on the
mainland, and nine islands off the coast, some marshy and uninhabited. The climate of
Kuwait can be extreme, with temperatures ranging from very cold to very hot,
although the average annual temperature is 33 °C. The long and dry summer extends May
through October. The August is the the hottest month with an average temperature of 44
°C. The winters are mild, with January the coolest month, with an average temperature of
7 °C. Rain storms may occur, and the wind may cause dust storms. The contribution of
water to the carbon footprint of the region is something peculiar to the Gulf states
including Kuwait because most of their drinking water comes from desalinated seawater.
Kuwait experienced the effects of human-induced climate change following the Gulf
War; Iraqis set oil wells on fire while retreating. The fires burned an average of 5 million
barrels of oil, and 70 million cubic meters of gas per day, producing emissions of carbon
dioxide (500,000 tons per day) and sulfur dioxide (40,000 tons per day). In addition to
emissions, the regional climate impact from smoke caused the surrounding areas to cool
(between 10 and 20 C) and damage to the land allowed the wind to blow away eroded
soil.
The rainy season in Kuwait begins in October and lasts till May. Virtually no rain is
25
received between June and September. During the last two decades, Kuwait has been
experiencing a sharp drop in rainfall during the last two decades. The long-term average
rainfall in Kuwait is of the order of 125 mm. However, the distribution has shown erratic
patterns during the recent years. Conventionally, Kuwait gets rain during late fall or early
winter. But since the 80’s, it has been experiencing some rain in November and then a
spell of dryness followed by some showers in late March. The spatial and temporal
distribution of rainfall in Kuwait has thus shown a marked change with the present
rainfall patterns being characterized by sudden spells and long periods of dryness.
Globally, sea levels could rise by up to 59 cm within the next century. In the UAE,
studies show that a rise in sea level by 1 meter would affect 1,155 square kilometer of
land. Even if the actual rise is lower than these estimates, it would still result in disastrous
impacts on infrastructure, marine life and wildlife, health and, of course, businesses and
economy. Clearly, no business can survive without energy and water. But genuine efforts
must be made to use less, and make that effort a priority.
Kuwait experienced floods in 1993 and 1997. In 2011, the weather conditions in Kuwait
reached tornado levels with wind speeds exceeding 160 km/h and touching 180 km/h.
These changes are indications of change in climate in Kuwait. Moreover, dust storms
have shown a marked increase in the state. The conditions of drought created in the
neighboring regions due to climate change are creating dry beds, which become the
source of dust storms blowing into Kuwait. Specifically the region between Syria, Jordan
and Iraq known as the dust triangle is considered responsible for most of the dust storms
in Kuwait. Despite the harsh environment, Kuwait supports more than 2 million people.
With 10% of the world oil reserves aggregating to 99 billion barrels, Kuwait has a vibrant
economy. Major industries including refining, marketing, and distribution revolve around
oil economy of Kuwait. The poor and dry soil means less than 1 percent can be used for
farmland. Kuwait is one of at least 11 countries consuming more than 100 percent of
their renewable water resources, though the water is reportedly free of water-borne
pathogens. Limited fresh water means desalination plants are needed to supply fresh
water. These plants require energy to heat the salt water to boiling and energy to provide
26
cooling to condense the steam into fresh water droplets. Kuwait contributes to large scale
carbon dioxide emissions mainly because oil exploration, production and refining are
energy intensive process.
Several countries in the middle-east region have already taken steps towards combating
adverse impacts of climate change. For example, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has
taken major steps towards sustainability through raising awareness, forming partnerships
with innovators and sharing information. The government of KSA is also introducing
initiatives such as Estidama Pearl Rating System and developing new ideas like high
efficiency district cooling systems, solar and wind parks for energy generation, rooftop
solar systems, standards for efficient air conditioners and lighting, solar powered
desalinisation plants and increasing public transportation.
The UAE is the fifth highest consumer of energy per capita in the world. The UAE is
now putting more effort into reducing its footprint. In February, Abu Dhabi announced
Masdar, which is being labelled as the world's greenest city. Once ready it will be a
carbon neutral place to live where cars will not be allowed. Additionally, new laws are in
discussion in Dubai to improve the environmental standards of buildings in the emirate.
This would look at reducing water usage and improving power consumption required for
cooling properties in the hot summers.
The State of Kuwait ratified the UNFCCC on 28 March 1995 and ratified the Kyoto
Protocol on 11 March 2005. As a participant in the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change, Kuwait is responsible for providing national
communication, including assessment of potential impacts of climate change. To meet
this challenge, the Environment Public Authority (EPA), with an administrator appointed
by the Council of Ministers, oversees environmental testing and education for voluntary
programs. In addition, the EPA acts in a resource capacity. It advises federal and
governmental policy makers on developing regulations and has authority to enforce the
regulations provided within Kuwait’s environmental laws through monitoring and
27
compliance enforcement.
Figure 3.1 Location, stream network and DEM of Satluj River Basin
climate stations, whereas the daily rainfall data from 10 climate stations in the basin.
Both the data have been obtained from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), and
Bhakra Beas Management Board (BBMB), India. The observed streamflow data at five
gauge stations were obtained from the Central Water Commission (CWC), Government
of India. All data are available for the Indian part of the Satluj basin.
are used to simulate and quantify the climate response to present and future
anthropogenic activities. GCMs use a three dimensional grid overlaying the surface of the
earth with grid points 300-500 kilometers per side, within which cells are stacked 20
layers deep. (Hadley Centre 1999). Within each grid point, simulations of key climatic
humidity and ice-coverage, and land surface processes are carried out. To validate GCM
simulations, they are run for extended time periods, typically many decades, under
present conditions without any change in external climate forcing. The simulated output
is compared with the observed data to assess the quality of the model. Once the quality of
28
the model is established, two different methods are used to make projections of future
climate change. In the first method, known as the equilibrium method, a climate change
considered and the model is run again to achieve an equilibrium state. The projected
computing the difference between the climate statistics of the two simulations. The
second method, known as transient method, involves forcing the model with a
greenhouse gas and aerosol scenario. The difference between such a simulation and the
baseline simulation provides an estimate of the climate change. The transient method
requires a time-dependent profile of greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations that are
derived from emission scenarios developed, among others by the IPCC. The most recent
IPCC emission scenarios are described in the IPCC special report on Emission Scenarios
(Nakicenovic et al. 2000). Major factors affecting the emission scenarios include growth
of world population, energy intensity and efficiency, and rate of economic growth.
important climatic variables such as temperature and rainfall and changes in important
models can be applied for estimating climate change impacts using two different
approaches. In the first approach, models can be built using observed data and the
impacts estimated using GCM projections as input to the model. The accuracy of GCMs
is, however, questionable due to their relatively large spatial resolution, which is of the
29
order of 2°×2.5° (latitude × longitude). The second approach involves relating regional-
scale variables to global scale atmospheric fields using empirical downscaling models
(Landman et al., 2001). Multiple linear regression (Klein, 1983), canonical correlation
analysis (Landman et al., 2001), nearest neighbour (Sharif and Burn, 2007) and artificial
neural network models (Crane and Hewitson, 1998; Cannon and Whitfield, 2002) are
some of the models that have been used in empirical downscaling studies. These models
can account for variability in the surface variables to an acceptable level but extrapolation
beyond the historical conditions may be unreliable. The ability of the downscaling
models to predict climate change impacts is greatly reduced due to the coarse spatial
processes and gives rise to uncertainties when downscaling is carried out using the GCM
outputs. Regional Climate models (RCMs) can overcome the spatial resolution problem
(~50km) climate model covering a limited area of the globe. The local climate is greatly
features to a large extent. An important advantage of RCMs is that they account for local
30
generally includes useful local details, especially in regions with very heterogeneous
terrain. However, RCMs still contain the uncertainties inherent in GCMs because they are
constrained by boundary conditions of GCMs in which they are nested. RCMs require
lateral meteorological conditions and surface boundary conditions to drive the models.
The driving data is obtained from GCMs (or analyses of observations) and can include
GHG and aerosol forcing (IPCC, 2001). They can provide high resolution (up to 10 to 20
km or less) and multi-decadal simulations and are capable of describing climate feedback
RCMs can be effectively utilized for generating different climate change scenarios. A
common method is to compute annual or seasonal change fields for precipitation and
temperature, and then use these to modify the observed time series of precipitation and
of change, instead of GCM or RCM results, can also be generated using this procedure. A
major disadvantage of this approach is that it accounts for the change in the mean of the
meteorological time series but does not account for the change in the variance. Changes
in variability are important in determining the frequency of extreme climate events (Katz
and Brown, 1992). Precipitation and temperature change fields imposed on the historical
time series is one of the approaches used by the IPCC for impact assessment (IPCC,
2001). Other methods of creating climate change scenarios include downscaling GCM
1995) and stochastic weather generators (Sharif and Burn 2006, Sharif and Burn 2007).
31
An important RCM that has been successfully utilized in the simulation of climate data is
PRECIS (Jones et al. 2004). It is a regional climate modeling system based on the third
generation of the Hadley Centre’s regional climate model (HadRM3). PRECIS has a
user-friendly data processing and a visualization interface. Due to its flexible design and
versatility, it has been applied to simulate climate data in several regions of the world.
Like any other regional climate model, PRECIS is driven by boundary conditions
simulated by general circulation models (GCMs). The dynamical flow, the atmospheric
sulphur cycle, clouds and precipitation, radiative processes, the land surface and the deep
soil are all formulated, while the boundary conditions at the limits of the model’s domain
are required to be specified in PRECIS. The model is forced at its lateral boundaries by
resolution of 150 km × 150 km. HadAM3H is an atmosphere-only GCM which has been
derived from the atmospheric component of HadCM3, the Hadley Centre’s state-of-the-
art coupled model which has a horizontal resolution of 3.75° longitude by 2.5° latitude
PRECIS has been configured for a domain extending from about 1.5°N to 38°N and 56°E
to 103°E. Ensembles of three baseline simulations for the period 1961–1990, three
simulations for the A2 future scenario (2071–2100) and one simulation for the B2 future
scenario (2071– 2100) have been run with HadAM3H and assessed (Hudson and Jones
2002). In the choice of an RCM domain, it is desirable to select a domain that is both
large enough so that the regional model can develop its own internal regional-scale
circulations, but not too large that the climate of the RCM deviates significantly from the
32
GCM in the centre of the domain. The horizontal resolution of the driving GCM
(QUMP) project of the Met Office Hadley Centre have been used as Lower Boundary
Conditions (LBCs) for 138 year simulations of PRECIS. The QUMP simulations
comprise 17 versions of the fully coupled version of HadCM3, one with the standard
are simultaneously perturbed (Collins et al. 2006). Simulations using PRECIS have been
performed for the Indian domain by the IITM, Pune to generate the climate for present
(1961–1990) and two future periods, namely midcentury (2021 to 2050) and endcentury
to both the global forcing via the lateral boundary conditions and independent internal
33
emissions path will occur in the future is highly uncertain.Such scenarios are developed
to give coherent, internally consistent and plausible descriptions of the future state of the
world (IPCC, 1999). Use of climate scenario is often made in climate change analysis,
including climate modeling and the assessment of impacts, adaptation, and mitigation.
However, there are a few problems associated with use of scenarios in impact
assessment. For example, there are many climate modelling teams around the world. If
they all used different metrics, made different assumptions about baselines and starting
points, then it would be very difficult to compare one study to another. In the same way,
models could not be validated against other different, independent models, and
communication between climate modelling groups would be made more complex and
time-consuming. Another problem is the cost of running models. The powerful
computers required are in short supply and great demand. Simulation programming that
had to start from scratch for each experiment would be wholly impractical. Scenarios
provide a framework by which the process of building experiments can be streamlined.
34
Each storyline assumes a distinctly different direction for future developments, such that
the four storylines differ in increasingly irreversible ways. Together they describe
divergent futures that encompass a significant portion of the underlying uncertainties in
the main driving forces. The four storylines combine two sets of divergent tendencies:
one set varying between strong economic values and strong environmental values, the
other set between increasing globalization and increasing regionalization. The storylines
are summarized as follows (Nakicenovic et al., 2000):
The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid
thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies.
Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building, and
differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family develops into three
fossil intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy sources (A1T), or a balance across all
sources (A1B) .
The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world. The
oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change are more
35
The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same
storyline, but with rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and
The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is
world with continuously increasing global population at a rate lower than A2,
intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more diverse
technological change than in the B1 and A1 storylines. While the scenario is also
3.6 RCPs
In 2007, the IPCC responded to calls for improvements to SRES by catalysing the
process that produced the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The RCPs are
the latest iteration of the scenario process, and are used in the IPCC report - Assessment
Report Five (AR5) in preference to SRES. The fifth assesment report (AR5) of IPCC
describes the scenarios as follows:
“In climate change research, scenarios describe plausible trajectories of different aspects
of the future that are constructed to investigate the potential consequences of
36
anthropogenic climate change. Scenarios represent many of the major driving forces -
including processes, impacts (physical, ecological, and socioeconomic), and potential
responses that are important for informing climate change policy. They are used to hand
off information from one area of research to another (e.g., from research on energy
systems and greenhouse gas emissions to climate modeling). They are also used to
explore the implications of climate change for decision making (e.g., exploring whether
plans to develop water management infrastructure are robust to a range of uncertain
future climate conditions). The goal of working with scenarios is not to predict the future
but to better understand uncertainties and alternative futures, in order to consider how
robust different decisions or options may be under a wide range of possible futures”.
(Source: IPCC Scenario Process for AR5)
Figure 3.2 A screen shot of the RCP on-line database showing RPC6.0 spatial data for
industry emissions for the year 2020.
37
energy sources, population growth and other socio-economic factors. (The data also
contain historic, real-world information). While socio-economic projections were drawn
from the literature in order to develop the emission pathways, the database does not
include socio-economic data. High-resolution data is generated for a world divided into
‘cells’ measuring half a degree of latitude and longitude - 518,400 cells in total. The RCP
database web interface provides only a preview of the data, which can comprise far more
detail than a graphic can show. It is, however, a starting point for researchers, who can
evaluate the data graphically before downloading it. (As an alternative, the Compare
option allows researchers to plot a graph of trajectories for all four RCPs, namely
RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP8.5. For example, Figure 3.3 and Figure 3.4 show
graphic representations of RCP6 spatial COe emissions for the years 2010 and 2100,
respectively.
Figure 3.3 RCP on-line database graphic showing RCP6 spatial data for industry COe emissions
for the year 2010
38
Figure 3.4 RCP on-line database graphic showing the projected RCP6 emissions in the year
2100.
By using the all the data available for the intervening years, a trajectory can be given for
any specific emissions. Each RCP plots a different emissions trajectory (pathway) and
cumulative emission concentration in 2100. The deliverable is a download from a central
repository. The database is also open to the public and can be accessed from the
following website.
http://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at:8787/RcpDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=welcome
Scientists can preview and download data on emissions, concentrations, radiative forcing
and land use, in regional and gridded form, following different trajectories over similar
39
timescales. These data sets can then be incorporated into any modelling exercise,
providing consistent parameters for each emissions trajectory, and a consistent
foundation for all climate modelling teams anywhere in the world.
Four design criteria were agreed for the RCPs, as described in Moss et.al. 2008 and Van
Vuuren 2011:
1. The RCPs should be based on scenarios published in the existing literature, developed
independently by different modeling groups and, as a set, be ‘representative’ of the total
literature, in terms of emissions and concentrations (see further in this section); At the
same time, each of the RCPs should provide a plausible and internally consistent
description of the future;
2. The RCPs should provide information on all components of radiative forcing that are
needed as input for climate modeling and atmospheric chemistry modeling (emissions of
greenhouse gases, air pollutants and land use). Moreover, they should make such
information available in a geographically explicit way;
3. The RCPs should have harmonized base year assumptions for emissions and land use
and allow for a smooth transition between analyses of historical and future periods;
4. The RCPs should cover the time period up to 2100, but information also needs to be
made available for the centuries thereafter.
40
4. TREND ANALYSIS OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
DATA
4.1 General
The last century has been a period of rapid climate change, mainly in response to human
influences. Social, economic, industrial, and land use developments all contribute to
human impact on our climate, locally, nationally and globally. The changes already
observed have had, and continue to have, impacts on many aspects of society, including
health, agriculture, water resources and energy demand. In order to plan for adaptation to
climate change there is a need to know the degree of change already experienced in a
region over a period of time. Areliable data set is an important prerequisite to quantify
and understand changes in climatic variables over a given time period in a region.
resource managers to better anticipate and plan for the potential impacts of climate
synthetic hydrologic record to forecast hydrologic events, detect trends and shifts in
hydrologic records and to fill-in missing data and extend records. Unlike the analyses of
random samples of observations that are discussed in the context of most other statistics,
41
the analysis of time series is based on the assumption that successive values in the data
series represent consecutive measurements taken at equally spaced time intervals. In time
series analysis, it is assumed that the data consists of a systematic pattern (usually a set of
identifiable components) and random noise (error) which usually makes the pattern
difficult to identify. There are two main goals of time series analysis: (i) identifying the
forecasting future values of the time series variable. Both of these goals require that the
pattern of observed time series data is identified and more or less formally described.
Once the pattern is established, extrapolation can be used to predict future events.
runoff evolve on a continuous time scale.A plot of flow hydrograph versus time
process of practical interest are defined in a distance time scale. A distance-time series
integrating the continuous time series over successive time intervals. For example, a daily
stream-flow may be derived by sampling the flow of the stream once daily or by
integrating the continuous flow hydrograph on a daily basis. Most hydrologic series are
defined on hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, bimonthly, and annual time intervals.
42
test. Parametric tests are more powerful than the non-parametric ones, but the application
of parametric tests requires that the data must be normally distributed.When the data are
not normally distributed, nonparametric tests are considered more robust compared to
their parametric counterparts. The most widely used nonparametric test for the
investigation of trends is the Mann-Kendall test (Mann, 1945; Kendall, 1975). A major
advantage of the Mann-Kendall test is that it allows missing data and can tolerate
outliers. Several researchers have employed Mann-Kendall test to identify trends in the
hydrometeorological variables due to climate change (Singh et al., 2008; Burn et al.,
2010). The Mann Kendall test is a ranked based approach that consists of comparing each
value of the time series with the remaining in a sequential order. The statistic S is the sum
Where
1 if ( x − x ) > 0
Sgn x − x = 0 if ( x − x ) = 0 Eq. 4.2
−1 if ( x − x ) < 0
and xj and xk are the sequential data values, n is the length of the data set. A positive
value of S indicates an upward and a negative value indicates a downward trend. For
43
samples greater than 10, the test is conducted using normal distribution with the mean
E S =0 Eq. 4.3
1
Var(S) = n(n − 1)(2n + 5) − t t − 1 (2t + 5) Eq. 4.4
18
where, tp is the number of data points in the pth tied group and q is the number of tied
groups in the data set. The standardized test statistic (Zmk ) is calculated by:
S−1
if S > 0
Var(S)
Z = S+1 Eq. 4.5
if S < 0
Var(S)
0 if S = 0
where the value of Zmk is the Mann- Kendall test statistics that follows standard normal
Trend evaluation using Mann-Kendall test relies on two important statistical metrics - the
trend significance level or the p-value, and the trend slope β. The p-value is an indicator
of the trend significance – the lower the p-value the stronger is the trend. The metric β
provides the rate of change in the variable allowing determination of the total change
during the analysis period. Using Sen’s slope method (Sen, 1968), the value of β can be
44
estimated. The method involves computing slopes for all the pairs of ordinal time points
and then using the median of these slopes as an estimate of the overall slope. The Sen’s
slope method is insensitive to outliers and can be effectively used to quantify a trend in
the data. The presence of a positive serial correlation in a data set can increase the
expected number of false positive outcomes for the Mann–Kendall test. A version of the
Mann-Kendall test that incorporates the correction for serial correlation (Yue et al., 2002)
The datasets used in this study have been obtained from the website of the climatic
research unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia The CRUTS3.0 data used in this
study comprise of monthly average maximum temperature and precipitation data on 0.5 x
0.5 grids available from 1901-2013. Using the gridded data sets produced by the CRU,
the analysis of trends projected by the CRU has been carried out. The montly data used in
the study has been presented in Appendix A of the present thesis.
45
4.5 Trend Analysis of Temperature Data
Analysis of temperature trends can provide critical evidence for evaluating impacts of
anthropogenic climate change. The focus in this section is on the analysis of time series
of surface air temperature, and various temperature indices for several stations in the
basin. Daily minimum temperature (TMN) and maximum temperature (TMX) data were
available from 8 climate stations in the basin. Figure 4.1and Figure 4.2show the average
monthly TMX and TMN, respectively at 8 stations in Satluj River Basin. The spatial
distribution of the total average maximum and minimum temperature for the period
Bhakra Kalpa
0 10 20 30 40
25
Temperature (C°)
15
0 5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Kasol Kaza
25
0 10 20 30 40
Temperature (C°)
15
5
-5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Namgia Raksham
5 10 15 20
Temperature (C°)
25
15
0 5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Rampur Suni
0 10 20 30 40
0 10 20 30 40
Temperature (C°)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
46
Bhakra Kalpa
10 15
25
Temperature (C°)
15
5
0
0 5
-5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Kasol Kaza
25
Temperature (C°)
10
15
0
-20 -10
0 5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Namgia Raksham
15
Temperature (C°)
15
0 5
-5 0 5
-10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Rampur Suni
25
25
Temperature (C°)
15
15
0 5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0 5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
47
Figure 4.4 The spatial distribution of average TMN (°C) at Satluj Basin (1985-2010)
The analysis of trends has been carried out for a total number of 17 variables grouped in
three sets (Table 4.2). Set A comprises variables based on annual values, whereas set B
comprises variables based on seasonal values. Set C comprises variables describing the
percentage of days when TMX and TMN are less than a predefined percentile (e.g, 10 th
48
SUTMN Minimum temperature averaged over summer
AUTMN Minimum temperature averaged over autumn
Set B
LTMX Annual largest maximum temperature
LTMN Annual largest minimum temperature
Set C
TMX10 percentage of days when TMX < 10th percentile
TMX90 percentage of days when TMX > 90th percentile
TMX10 percentage of days when TMN < 10th percentile
TMX90 percentage of days when TMN > 90th percentile
The available daily surface air temperature data were used to derive the mean monthly
data. The mean seasonal and annual series of all the variables for each station were then
derived using the mean monthly data. The annual values of TMX in set A have been
computed through averaging the mean monthly values of maximum temperature. The
annual values of TMN have been computed by averaging the minimum temperature
values over each year of the available data. The daily DTR has been computed by taking
the difference between the daily TMX and TMN values. Using the daily DTR values, the
annual values of DTR have been computed. The annual series of variables in set B
(LTMX and LTMN) have been computed by extracting the largest and the smallest
values of daily maximum and daily minimum temperature respectively for each year of
In most land regions the frequency of warm days and warm nights will likely increase in
the next decades, while that on cold days and cold nights will decrease (Kirtman et al.
2013). To investigate the trends in the frequency of warm days, warm nights, cold days,
and cold nights in the Satluj River Basin, four temperature indices have been computed
using the daily temperature data for each of the eight stations. A description of the
49
temperature indices is provided in Table 4.2. TMN10 represents the percentage of days in
a year when the TMN was less than the 10th percentile and is, therefore, an indicator of
cold nights. TMX10 represents the percentage of days when TMX was less than the 10th
percentile, and is, therefore, an indicator of cold days. Likewise, the variables TMN90
and TMX90 corresponds to the 90th percentile and were similarly defined, and are
indicators of warm nights and warm days respectively. To compute the annual series of
variables in set C, the following procedure was adopted. For each year of the analysis
period, the 10th and 90th percentiles of TMN were computed using 365 daily TMN
values. Each of these 365 daily values was then compared with the 10th percentile value
to determine the percentage of days when the daily TMN was less than the 10th
percentile. Using this procedure, an annual time series of TMN10 was obtained. A similar
procedure was adopted for TMN90. The procedure was repeated for TMX to obtain
The analysis of trends for the three sets of variables described in Table 4.2 has been
carried out using Mann-Kendall nonparametric test (Mann, 1945; Kendall, 1975). The
statistical significance of trends is indicated by the p-value, and the magnitude and the
direction of the trend has been computed using the Sen’s slope method. A value of 0.05
was chosen as a significance level for a two-sided test. Based upon this significance level,
Zmk values greater than 1.96 or smaller than 1.96, respectively, indicate a significant
positive or negative trend. A p-value of less than 0.05 indicates that the trend is
statistically significant at 5% significance level. The bold values in the following tables
50
4.5.1 Trends in Average Temperature
A summary of trends in mean annual TMX, TMN, LTMX, LTMN, and DTR is presented
in Table 4.3, where the bold values indicate statistically significant trends.
51
Figure 4.5Direction of trends in annual TMX and TMN
The spatial distribution of trends in TMX and TMN is shown in Figure 4.5. Results
presented in Table 4.3 clearly indicate that the positive trends outnumber the negative
trends for all the variables. Of eight stations, six showed increasing trends in TMX with
two exhibiting statistically significant trends. None of the stations showed statistically
52
Mean annual TMN has shown a greater number of increasing trends than decreasing
trends. Increasing trends were observed at five stations with two stations showing
statistically significant trends. Bhakra showed an increasing trend in TMX (p=0.024) but
TMN was, however, observed at Bhakra. In addition to Bhakra, Kasol (p=0.002) and
Suni (p=0.003) exhibited strongly decreasing trends in TMN. The trends in the time
series of LTMX and LTMN were also investigated. For LTMX, all eight stations
exhibited an increasing trend out of which two (Rampur and Suni) were statistically
significant. The variable LTMN exhibited an increasing trend at six stations, but none of
these were statistically significant. The decreasing trends in LTMN were observed at two
stations, of which one was statistically significant (Bhakra, p=0. 001). The variable DTR
showed an increasing trend at seven of the eight stations; none of the stations exhibited a
statistically significant trend. The widening of DTR was expected due to an increasing
Seasonal analysis of temperature data was carried out for the four seasons: winter
Table 4.4, and the spatial distribution of the trend of the seasonal TMX for all stations are
shown in Error! Reference source not found.. The trends in TMX for the winter season
are predominantly increasing with six out of eight stations showing increasing trends with
those at Kalpa and Namgia, being statistically significant. For the spring season,
53
significantly increasing trend in TMX was found at four stations (Table 4.4; Error!
None of the stations exhibited a statistically significant decreasing trend. For the summer
season, increasing trend was found at six stations, and decreasing trend at two stations.
None of the stations exhibited a statistically significant trend in the summer season. The
autumn season, however, exhibited a greater number of decreasing trends than increasing
trends, but an equal number of statistically significant decreasing and increasing trend
(one each).
Seasonal trends in TMN are shown in Table 4.5 and Figure 4.6 shows the spatial
54
distribution of the trend of the seasonal minimum temperature for all stations. For the
winter season, three statistically significant decreasing trends for TMN were found,
although no significant decreasing trends were found for TMX. For the spring season,
three stations exhibited statistically significant increasing trend, whereas one exhibited
exhibiting increasing and decreasing trends for the summer season. However, the number
of stations exhibiting statistically significant decreasing trend is more than the number of
stations with an increasing trend. For the autumn season, although there were five
stations with increasing trends, but none with a statistically significant trend. Out of three
55
Figure 4.6 Seasonal trends in TMN
spatial and temporal availability of water is, therefore, related to the trends in rainfall in
the basin. The precipitation data in the Satluj basin is available from 10 stations. Daily
precipitation records from different stations were summed to provide monthly, seasonal
and annual totals for each station. The barplots of average monthly rainfall at different
stations is shown in Figure 4.7. Monsoonal and annual precipitation at each station were
analyzed using the Mann-Kendall non parametric test. The summaries of trends in
monsoonal and annual rainfall at different stations are shown in Table 4.6.
56
Bhakra Berthin
400
400
Rainfall (mm)
200
200
0
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Kahu Kalpa
Rainfall (mm)
150 300
60
0 20
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Kaza Kasol
400
Rainfall (mm)
30
200
0 10
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Namgia Raksham
30
20 40 60
Rainfall (mm)
10 20
0
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Rampur Suni
150
100 200
Rainfall (mm)
0 50
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Figure 4.7 Barplots of average monthly rainfall at different stations in Satluj Basin
Trend analysis of rainfall data revealed that the increasing was more pronounced in
monsoon than the annual rainfall as shown in Table 4.6. Half of the stations (5) exhibited
increasing trends, and another half exhibited decreasing trends in annual rainfall in the
basin. However, Raksham was the only station that exhibited a statistically significant
increasing trend. None of the stations exhibited statistically significant decreasing trend.
Six out of ten stations exhibited increasing trend in the monsoon rainfall with three
57
Annual Monsoon Winter
Station Slope p Slope p Slope p
Bhakra -0.814 0.764 1.300 0.824 -0.970 0.209
Berthin -0.835 0.737 -0.333 0.904 -0.052 0.959
Kahu 5.703 0.150 3.170 0.221 0.227 0.769
Kalpa 1.609 0.723 5.700 0.022 0.001 0.221
Kaza -0.625 0.835 -0.950 0.739 0.001 1.000
Kasol -2.600 0.451 -2.224 0.512 -0.388 0.389
Namgia -2.023 0.314 0.532 0.650 0.001 0.620
Raksham 8.900 0.001 7.680 0.001 0.001 0.142
Rampur 3.154 0.321 4.673 0.040 -0.444 0.586
Suni -3.343 0.384 -2.035 0.578 -0.889 0.213
No. + 5 6 5
No. - 5 4 5
No. Sig+ 1 3 0
No. Sig- 0 0 0
Notes: 1. Bold values indicate statistically significant trends at 10% significance level;
precipitation and hydrological measures of extreme flows. Long term trends of seasonal
and annual temperatures, both maximum and minimum, were investigated using Mann-
Kendall nonparametric test. Additionally, trends in DTR, LTMX, LTMN, and four
temperature indices have been investigated for eight stations in the Satluj River Basin.
Trend analysis of seasonal temperature data revealed that the warming was more
pronounced in winter and spring seasons than in summer and autumn seasons. The
glacier melt during the spring months may be especially enhanced, but may be less
serious during the summer months. Trends in all four temperature indices considered in
this study were predominantly increasing. For TMX90, there were six increasing trends
whereas TMN90 exhibited four increasing trends. At four stations, TMN90 exhibited
increasing trends with very low p-values. The lower the p-values the stronger is the trend,
58
and; therefore, a clear warming trend in night-time temperature represented by TMN90
A clear warming pattern was observed in the basin with the majority of the stations (six
of eight) exhibiting increasing trends in annual TMX. None of the stations exhibited a
statistically significant decreasing trend in annual TMX. The trends in annual TMN were,
however, mixed with a bias towards increasing trends. However, three stations showed
statistically significant decreasing trends in TMN. The observed cooling trend at these
stations in the basin corresponds with results for minimum temperature reported by
Fowler and Archer (2006) for the upper Indus Basin. The predominantly increasing trend
in diurnal temperature range owing to the asymmetrical trends in TMX and TMN is also
shared with upper Indus stations (Forsythe et al, 2012) and has also been reported in parts
of India (Kumar et al. 1994). This contradicts general global patterns whereby faster
increases in TMX than TMN yield decreasing DTR (Karl et al 1993; Easterling et al.
1997).
Some higher elevation stations (for example, Raksham, Kaza, and Namgia) showed clear
warming trends both in TMX and TMN. Similar findings have been reported in some
studies on the Himalayas in Xizang province of China, which found higher warming rates
at higher altitudes (e.g. Liu et al., 2009; Liu and Chen, 2000; Qin et al., 2009; Thompson
et al., 2003; Yang et al., 2011). Increased warming in the higher elevation stations is
likely to result in increased melting of glaciers and snowfields. This could have a serious
impact on water availability in the basin as higher volume of water would be available
59
downstream during the first half of this century, but acute shortages may occur in water
availability during the second half of the current century with diminished glacier and
snowfield extent. The underlying assumption for this plausible scenario is that the current
An increasing pattern was observed in the annual, monsoonal and winter precipitation
data in the basin. However, only a few stations exhibited statistically significant
increasing trends. More importantly, none of the stations exhibited statistically significant
precipitation characteristics of the basin are undergoing a significant change in the basin.
Although the temperature trend points towards a clear warming trend in the basin, but the
precipitation trends are unclear. The findings of the present research are in line with the
study conducted by Khattak et al. (2011) who found inconsistent trends in precipitation in
the Upper Indus basin in Pakistan. Several other researchers have concluded that
precipitation processes are highly complex and do not generally exhibit consistent
patterns.
Results of trend analysis of monthly and annual flow as well as annual proportions of
monthly flows at five gauging stations in the basin clearly indicated there were a large
proportions of annual flow have shown a reversal of trends when compared to the
monthly flows at three out of five stations. Analysis of trends in flow and timing
measures has clearly shown that the changes are occurring in the hydrological regime for
60
the sites examined, both in terms of peak magnitudes albeit weak indication, and the
timings of peak events. Changes are occurring in the low flow regime as well with a
strong indication of increase in LFM events at Bhakra. The trends in LFT have been
found to be generally weak at all the sites. The CoV timings exhibited no definite trends
in either direction. Most of the analyses have led to the conclusion that there were a
significant number of significant trends in the variables. It is concluded that given the
potential changes in the flow regime, it is critical to revise reservoir operating policy at
Bhakra to be able to cope with the changing climatic conditions in the basin. The analysis
of streamflow data conducted here has revealed that changes are occurring in the
hydrological regime of the Satluj river basin, part of which may be attributed to warming
in the basin, which is evident from the analysis of temperature trends.The direction of the
trends is, however, inconsistent between the stations, notably between the increasing
trend in annual flow at Bhakra and the decreasing trend upstream.The possible reasons
for this could be a big input from the lower part of the catchment to Bhakra or a poor
61
5. Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes Over
Kuwait
5.1 Introduction
Temperature is a critical parameter that affects the behavior of the climatic systems (Sang
2012). Any increase in future temperatures in Saudi Arabia will likely stimulate demand
for air conditioning leading to increased peak demand on generation and distribution
systems. This would result in an increase in per unit cost of generation. Saudi Arabia is
particularly vulnerable to enhanced warming mainly due to its limited water resources
and heavy reliance on fossil fuel – a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions – for
electricity generation. Additionally, significant demographic pressures continue to affect
the government’s ability to provide energy and potable water to the people. The situation
is likely to worsen due to adverse impacts of climate change. Therefore, the overarching
aim of the present research is to evaluate projected changes in futures temperature over
Saudi Arabia. The intent is to aid in the formulation of adaptation strategies and
mitigation measures to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the Kingdom. The
analysis of future temperature changes over Saudi Arabia is critical from the viewpoint of
agricultural production as well. Future emissions depend on anthropogenic factors and
are inherently unpredictable. Therefore, changes in temperature over Saudi Arabia have
been evaluated for twelve different combinations of GCMs and emission scenarios.
Climate variables, especially temperature and precipitation, generally vary both spatially
and temporally. To gain an insight in the spatial pattern of expected warming, analysis of
temperature departures at four different locations has been presented in this study. An
ensemble analysis was conducted to quantify the range of plausible future temperature
changes under different emission scenarios. The Climate Wizard toolbox (Girvetz et al.
2009) has been used to conduct different analyses.
62
5.2 Methodology
With the Climate Wizard Tool both the observed and future projected climate data can be
analyzed for pre-defined geographical areas. The Climate Wizard can perform custom
analyses after drawing or uploading analysis boundaries. The analysis of observed
(historical) climate data is relatively straight forward whereas future climate projections
of GCMs are more complex to analyze. The complexity stems from the fact that there
are multiple future projections of GCMs to consider rather than one GCM projection. To
take into account the uncertainties associated with GCM outputs, ensemble studies are
often undertaken. The ensemble median provides an efficient means to improve the
reliability of climate simulations obtained through multiple models (Reicher and Kim,
2008). Ensemble studies are often aimed at quantifying the range of plausible future
climates under different combinations of GCMs and emission scenarios. Approaches to
doing ensemble studies range from simple averaging of different projections to more
complex probability estimation procedures (Araújo and New 2007). Also, GCMs
simulate simulate climate at a spatial resolution (e.g., 2.5–3.5 degree grid cells), which is
too coarse for hydrological modelling on a basin scale. A distinct practical advantage of
63
Climate Wizard Tool is that it provides high resolution climate data sets created using
downscaling techniques that utilize information from finer resolution climate data sets of
past observations.
To perform analyses of observed and projected climate data, the Climate Wizard Tool
requires (1) delineated geographic boundaries over which the analyses are to be
conducted; (2) a specified time period over which to conduct a trend analysis or two time
periods to conduct a departure analysis; (3) a list of climate variables of interest (for
example, precipitation, temperature), and (4) a specified time period (s) over which data
are to be analyzed (monthly, seasonal or annual). The historical datasets available
through climatewizard.org are based on the datasets produced by the climatic research
unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia. To generate CRU data set for land regions
of the world, monthly temperature, time series from over 4800 stations are used. During
the 1850s the number of available stations was small but has increased to over 4500
stations during the 1951-2010 period. Stations on land are situated at different
elevations, and the measurement techniques followed by different countries vary. To
avoid biases resulting from these problems, monthly mean temperatures are reduced to
anomalies for the period with better coverage, namely 1961-90. Many stations around
the world, however, do not have complete data for the period 1961-1990. Several
methods have been described by Jones et al. (2012) to estimate 1961-1990 averages. The
issue of homogeneity and consistency of measurements through time as well as the
procedures used to remove all non-climatic inconsistencies have been described by
Kennedy et al. (2011) and Jones et al. 2012.
5.3 Methodology
To facilitate assessment of future climate change impacts, large scale climate data are
available for several combinations of global circulation models (GCMs) and emission
scenarios on climatewizard.org. However, the climate data available on
climatewizard.org corresponds to older SRES scenarios, namely A1B, A2, and B1. These
64
scenarios now have been superceded by newer scenarios based on representative
Concentration Pathways (RCPs) described in the fifth assessment report of the IPCC. The
projections of climate data under RCPs are available for different regions of the world on
Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) 2.0, which can assessed through
http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal.
The CCKP contains environmental, disaster risk, and socio-economic datasets, as well as
synthesis products, such as the Climate Adaptation Country Profiles, which are built and
packaged for specific user-focused functions such as climate change indices for a
particular country. The portal also provides intelligent links to other resources and tools.
The CCKP consists of spatially referenced data visualized on a Google Maps interface.
Users are able to evaluate climate-related vulnerabilities, risks, and actions for a
65
particular location on the globe by interpreting climate and climate-related data at
different levels of details. In the context of the present study, the CCKP provides
temperature and precipitation data for different times scales under all the four RCPs,
namely RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. Data from a total of 16 GCMs is
available at the CCKP. GCMa are sophisticated computer models that can be used to
simulate the climate response to present and future anthropogenic activities. GCMs use a
three dimensional grid overlaying the surface of the earth with grid points 300-500
kilometers per side, within which cells are stacked several layers deep. Within each grid
point, simulations of key climatic components are carried out. The state-of-the art GCMs
can simulate important atmospheric processes and predict future climate under different
emission scenarios (Chu et al, 2010).
To obtain weather data for any time-slice, the coordinates of the point of interest, or the
region as a whole are chosen along with the GCM and the RCP. The climate data at the
CCKP may be obtained for the baseline period (1961-1990) and for four future time time
scales, each corresponding to some future time period. In the present study, outputs from
four different GCMs developed in Canada, Australia, Germany, and the United Kingdom,
respectively have been used. Since the effects of changing emissions on climate are too
complex to understand and model with confidence, climate change projections are
described as scenarios rather than predictions (Mearns et al. 2003). For the present study,
four RCPs - RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 have been chosen, representing
average projections of various future developments. These scenarios cover a wide
spectrum of driving forces from demographic to social and economic developments,
encompassing numerous possibilities of future greenhouse gas emissions. Four future
time scales chosen for the present study are: 2020-2039, 2040-2059, 2060-2079, and
2080-2099.
The projections of
66
5.5 Conclusions
67
6. ENERGY-TEMPERATURE MODELING USING R
PACKAGE
Hydrologic models are widely used to simulate and predict behaviour of complex
the partitioning of water among the various pathways of the hydrological cycle (Dooge,
where a system consists of entities and relationships between entities. Wurbs (1998)
outlined the institutional setting within which the models are disseminated throughout the
water community.In the context of resource management, the hydrologic model can be
used as a planning tool to guide decision making for management practices of both land
and water resources (Easton et al. 2008; Faramarzi et al. 2009; Yu et al. 2011; Koch et al.
made and reported through comparisons of simulated and observed variables. Frequently,
comparisons are made between simulated and measured streamflow at the catchment
outlet. Hydrological models provide valuable tool for assessing the potential impacts of
changes in land use or climate. Due to the rapid advancement in the computing
technology over the past decade, the computer models have become efficient, both in
models are often employed to evaluate the response of a basin to a given set of input
parameters. There are two main objectives that are fulfilled by the catchment-level
68
gain a better understanding of the hydrologic phenomena operating in a catchment and of
how changes in the catchment may affect these phenomena. Another objective of
69
7. Conclusions and Recommendations
This chapter summarizes the research reported in this thesis, outlining the limitations of
the research and providing recommendations for future research.The present thesis is
organized into 8 chapters. The first chapter provides an overview of the climate change
issues relevant to India. The objectives of the present study are outlined in chapter 1.
Chapter 2 of the thesis presents the literature relevant to the present research. In chapter
3, a detailed description of the study area, namely, the Satluj River basin has been
in the basin. A detailed analysis and interpretation of the trends is presented in this
precipitation in the basin is presented in chapter 5. Chapter 6 describes the procedure for
hydological modelling using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Application of
the calibrated and validated SWAT model to the simulation of future streamflows in the
basin is described in chapter 7. Following this introduction, section 7.1 presents the
summary of the research carried out in this thesis. The achievements of the research are
presented in 7.2. Section 7.3 describes the limitations and section 7.4 presents a few
of climate change in Satluj River basin, India. The research presented in this thesis
comprise of three salient parts. The first part of the thesis presents the analysis of trends
70
in hydrometerological variables at several stations in Satluj River basin.Analysis of trend
results clearly revealed a greater number of increasing trends in most of the variables
investigated than could be expected to occur by chance. A clear warming pattern was
observed in the basin with the majority of the stations (six of eight) exhibiting increasing
trends in annual TMX. None of the stations exhibited a statistically significant decreasing
trend in annual TMX. The trends in annual TMN were, however, mixed with a bias
decreasing trends in TMN. The observed cooling trend at these stations in the basin
corresponds with results for minimum temperature reported by Fowler and Archer
(Fowler and Archer, 2006) for the upper Indus Basin. The predominantly increasing trend
in diurnal temperature range owing to the asymmetrical trends in TMX and TMN is also
shared with upper Indus stations (Forsythe et al. 2012) and has also been reported in parts
of India (Kumar et al. 1994). This contradicts general global patterns whereby faster
increases in TMX than TMN yield decreasing DTR (Easterling et al. 1997).The increased
warming in the basin could have implications for water availability in the basin as the
contribution of snow and glacier melt to annual runoff at Bhakra reservoir is about 60%.
If the current trends in temperature continue in the future, the magnitude and timings of
drinking water supplies of millions of people at risk. It can be concluded that the analysis
of historic temperature data in India indicates predominantly increasing trend, but not
The second part of the thesis describes the investigation of linkages of El-Nino Southern
71
Oscillation Index (ENSO) with the precipitation in the basin. The ENSO is a natural
Pacific. Several weather events around the world are believed to be impacted by the
ENSO. The linkages of monsoonal precipitation in the basin with the warm as well as
cool phases of ENSO were investigated. The results indicated a negative association
between the warm phase and monsoonal precipitation at the majority of stations in the
basin. During the cool phase of ENSO, a positive association between the monsoonal
precipitation was observed in the majority of situations. It can be concluded from the
analysis of linkages of ENSO with monsoonal precipitation in the basin that the warm
The third part of the thesis describes the development and application of SWAT-based
hydrological model for the basin. The intent was to simulate the potential impact of
climatic changes on the streamflow generation at Bhakra - a major dam in the basin. The
calibration of the SWAT model was carried out using the historical climate data and the
streamflows at Bhakra. The changes in the seasonal and annual streamflows at Bhakra in
response to PRECIS generated outputs of climate variables for two future time slices of
climate variables under three different emission scenarios, namely, A1B, A2 and B2 were
used to simulate future streamflows at Bhakra. The values of streamflow during the
baseline period near the vicinity of the Bhakra dam ranged from 1892 to 2160 cumec
compared to 1623 to 1891 cumec for the base period. Lower rates of streamflow could
72
occur in some sub-watersheds located in the northern and southeastern parts of the
watershed for both midcentury and endcentury periods. Results of simulations clearly
indicated that the average streamflows at the outlet of the basin are likely to increase
Overall, there would be significant increases in the streamflow in all the three scenarios
for the future periods considered. The substantial increase in streamflows for the future
periods of the A1B, A2, and B2 scenarios in the non-monsoon seasons may be attributed
to larger glacier melt contribution caused by projected higher temperatures. The results
presented herein clearly indicate that projected changes in the climate would alter the
streamflow patterns in the basin, which in turn is likely to impact future water availability
at Bhakra. Since more than half of the annual streamflow volume at Bhakra is contributed
by glacier melt (Singh and Jain, 2002), increased streamflows at the reservoir site points
towards enhanced melting in the basin. With increased streamflow volume at Bhakra, the
vulnerability of the basin to high magnitude flooding events is likely to increase under
SWAT is a potentially useful tool for planning and management of water resources, and
streamflows was clearly demonstrated. The results presented herein indicate that the
SWAT model can be an effective tool for simulating monthly streamflows even for a
basin with complex hydrology. The results of the present study can be profitably utilized
73
by the water managers and policy makers involved with the development of mitigation
follows.
To put the research carried out in thesis in context, a comprehensive review of the
A detailed description of the study area has been presented. The details of the
study area available in the present thesis could be effectively utilized for future
Trend analysis for several hydro-meteorological variables was carried out for a
A methodologyto analyze linkages of warm and cool phases of ENSO with the
forecasting models.
A hydrological model based on Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has
74
been developed and applied to the simulation of streamflows at Bhakra - the
major reservoir in the basin - under A1B, A2 and B2 scenarios. The practicality of
the model in simulating future streamflows in the basin has been adequately
different combinations of emission scenarios and time slices can be carried out.
A comprehensive assessment of climate change for the Satluj river basin has been
carried out. The results of the analysis presented herein would provide impetus for
A limitation of the present research is that the hydro-meteorological data used in the trend
analysis are available up to 2010. More recent data are not available. The trend analysis
carried out in this research would have been more reliable had the recent data been
available from a greater number of stations as climate change impacts are believed to be
more pronounced during the recent period. Because of the limitation in the climate data
availability, this study considered the output of SRES A1B, A2 and B2 scenarios as
in the prediction of future climate scenario among different RCM models. The reliability
used. A likely source of uncertainty in this study is from the future development plans in
the basin. Several hydropower schemes in the basin are likely to be operational in the
75
future, which can substantially alter the hydrology of the region. These future
developments are not explicitly taken into account. However, emission scenarios used in
the present study did take future developments into account. The linkages of monsoonal
precipitation have been investigated with ENSO and not with other climate indices.
which could lead to further development of knowledge in the area of climate change
The first suggested area in which the research can be undertaken follows from the
limitation of the trend analysis. A well known limitation of trend analysis of historical
data is that the analysis is, by its nature, retrospective. of greater concern from an
engineering design perspective is what conditions can be expected to occur in the future,
retrospective analysis of the available data may not be a good indicator of future
conditions. Obtaining a more comprehensive view of the present and plausible future
conditions in the basin requires combining trend analysis of historical data with analysis
of climate data obtained from modelling climate change projections using downscaled
hydrological model.
76
7.4.2 Linkages of Climate Indices
The linkages of El-Nino Southern Oscillation Index with the precipitation in the basin
have been investigated in the present work. Some future work may investigate the
linkages of other large scale climate indices such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation,
which has been shown to have strong connections with hydrological variables,
particularly in the Pacific Northwest (Neal et al., 2002). The linkages of other climate
indices such as those related to the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean with the hydrological
variables in the Satluj River basin may be investigated in the future work.
The reliability of the simulated streamflow outputs of SWAT model can be improved by
considering the inputs from a larger number of RCMs, rather than considering a single
model. An ensemble analysis may then be carried out to determine the range of
upon the availability of the data, the future studies should aim to employ a larger
ensemble of RCMs and development scenarios for understanding the range of climate
change impacts on the hydrologic regime in the Satluj River basin.Adaptations to adverse
impacts of climate change is critical for the sustainable development of the study basin.
activities. The results presented herein could provide valuable aid to policy makers in
77
By providing information on lessons learned and insights gained
The onus to aggressively tackle the problem of climate change is with the developed countries that are
historically responsible for high levels of emissions rather than countries such as the Kuwait, which may
have high per-capita emissions, but is responsible for only a fraction of global emissions. Kuwait is not
responsible for global warming on a large scale but it must be a part of the solution of the problem of
climate change. There are several steps that could be taken by the government of Kuwait to mitigate the
impacts of climate change. Some solutions for mitigating the adverse impacts of climate change in Kuwait
are recommended here.
Development of solar and wind parks for energy generation
Development of solar powered de-salination plants
Measures to reduce electricity and water consumption
Development and enforcement of legally binding emission standards for vehicles
Development and enforcement of legally binding standard for green buildings
Research for development of innovative products with the aim to reduce footprints
Greater emphasis on research towards development of cleaner technologies
Better Public transportation system
Greater emphasis on water reuse and recycling practices
Human impact on the planet has accelerated over the last hundred years, with the composition of the Earth's
atmosphere being radically altered by burning fossil fuels. Understanding climate change impacts and
agreeing to take steps forward are critical imperative for the future. In Kuwait, future impacts from climate
change may include: changes in the coastline, a decline in the water supply that is already poor, and an
increase in temperatures causing higher incidence of heat stress. It may also impair air quality, primarily
through increases in ground-level ozone pollution in heavily populated urban areas. Therefore, the need of
78
the hour is the pledge by middle-east countries including Kuwait that could help in closing the ambition
gap between the actions that countries have committed to and the actions required to save the planet from
79
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Brief Bio-data of the Author
Educational Background:
101
Thesis title: Experimental Investigation on the Hydraulic Performance of
Duckbill Weirs.
Supervised by: Professor Dr. Alaa H. Kadoury (Supervisor), Expert. Dr. Putrus
K. Putrus (Co. Supervisor)
Employment:
2. Hamid, A. T., Shakeel, M., Sharif, M., and Husain, A. (2014). Analysis of
relationship between meteorological variables for the Satluj river basin,
National Conference on “Water Resources Management – Achievements &
Challenges” (WRM-AC 2014), 22nd March, 2014, Jamia Millia Islamia
University, New Delhi, 262-272.
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4. Hamid, A. T, Ahmed, M. L., and Sharif, M. (2013). Analysis of relationship
between meteorological variables for the city of Delhi, Int'l Journal of
Research in Chemical, Metallurgical and Civil Engg. (IJRCMCE), 1(1), 16-22,
ISSN 2349-1442 EISSN 2349-1450.
6. Sharif, M., Mohammed, S., Alam, S., Lateef, M., and Hamid, A. T. (2013).
Extreme Precipitation Events Simulation Using An Improved K-Nearest
Neighbour Weather Generating Model, International Journal of Emerging
Technology and Advanced Engineering Website: www.ijetae.com, ISSN,
Vol. 3 (8), 2250-2459.
10. Sharif, M., Hamid, A.T. and Husain, A. (2013). Simulation of Karangkates
reservoir operation, International Journal of Innovative Research in Science,
Engineering and Technology , 2(5), pp.1850–1857.
103
11. Hamid, A. T., and Sharif, M. (2012). Temperature Trends in Satluj River
Basin. Global Conference on Global Warming (GCGW-2012) July 8 – 12,
2012 Istanbul,Turkey , pp 500-509.
12. Sharif, M., Archer, D., and Hamid, A. T. (2012). Trends in streamflow
magnitude and timings in Satluj River Basin. Proc. American Society of Civil
Engineers, World Environmental and Water Resources Congress, 2012, 20-
24 May, New Mexico, USA.
Accepted Papers
Submitted Papers
104