Geomorphology 291 (2017) 17–32

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Geomorphology

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/geomorph

Rainfall control of debris-flow triggering in the Réal Torrent, Southern

French Prealps
Coraline Bel a,⁎, Frédéric Liébault a, Oldrich Navratil b, Nicolas Eckert a, Hervé Bellot a,
Firmin Fontaine a, Dominique Laigle a
a
Université Grenoble Alpes, Irstea, UR ETGR, 2 rue de la Papeterie-BP76, F-38402 St-Martin-d'Hères, France
b
Université Lumière Lyon 2, UMR 5600-CNRS Environnement Ville Société, IRG, F-69676 Bron, France

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: This paper investigates the occurrence of debris flow due to rainfall forcing in the Réal Torrent, a very active de-
Received 25 December 2015 bris flow-prone catchment in the Southern French Prealps. The study is supported by a 4-year record of flow re-
Received in revised form 9 March 2016 sponses and rainfall events, from three high-frequency monitoring stations equipped with geophones, flow stage
Accepted 5 April 2016
sensors, digital cameras, and rain gauges measuring rainfall at 5-min intervals. The classic method of rainfall
Available online 7 April 2016
intensity–duration (ID) threshold was used, and a specific emphasis was placed on the objective identification
Keywords:
of rainfall events, as well as on the discrimination of flow responses observed above the ID threshold. The results
Debris flows show that parameters used to identify rainfall events significantly affect the ID threshold and are likely to explain
Triggering conditions part of the threshold variability reported in the literature. This is especially the case regarding the minimum du-
Rainfall threshold ration of rain interruption (MDRI) between two distinct rainfall events. In the Réal Torrent, a 3-h MDRI appears to
Logistic regression be representative of the local rainfall regime. A systematic increase in the ID threshold with drainage area was
Field monitoring also observed from the comparison of the three stations, as well as from the compilation of data from experimen-
Réal Torrent tal debris-flow catchments. A logistic regression used to separate flow responses above the ID threshold, revealed
that the best predictors are the 5-min maximum rainfall intensity, the 48-h antecedent rainfall, the rainfall
amount and the number of days elapsed since the end of winter (used as a proxy of sediment supply). This
emphasizes the critical role played by short intense rainfall sequences that are only detectable using high
time-resolution rainfall records. It also highlights the significant influence of antecedent conditions and the
seasonal fluctuations of sediment supply.
© 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Debris flows can be defined as rapid surges of saturated non-plastic
debris propagating in steep mountain streams (Hungr, 2005). They
mobilize high sediment loads and may endanger the safety of people
and infrastructure. Approaches aimed at protecting people against this
natural hazard include among others the provision of probability mea-
sures for debris-flow occurrence to improve hazard assessment, and
the development of debris-flow warning systems based on real-time
rainfall monitoring. For such purposes, an improved understanding of
debris-flow initiation conditions is of great importance.
Debris-flow occurrence is influenced by two levels of forcing. Firstly,
primary factors such as intense rainstorms, rapid snowmelt or (more
rarely) outburst floods, are recognized as directly associated with
debris-flow triggering (Wieczorek and Glade, 2005; Chiarle et al.,
2007). Secondly, predisposing factors such as antecedent rainfall or
sediment recharge can also favor debris-flow occurrence (Bovis and
Jakob, 1999; Wieczorek and Glade, 2005). Debris-flow triggering is
⁎ Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: coraline.bel@gmail.com (C. Bel), frederic.liebault@irstea.fr
(F. Liébault).
thus controlled by both climatic and susceptibility factors. On the one
hand, climatic factors can be responsible for surface water runoff that
entrains sediment (Berti and Simoni, 2005; Kean et al., 2013), or they
can also cause soil saturation and a pore-water pressure rise that results
in slope failure (Iverson et al., 1997; Reid et al., 1997). On the other
hand, debris-flow susceptibility depends on the volume of sediment
that can be mobilized in the torrent catchment. Thus, only catchments
presenting both the appropriate morphometric and sedimentary
potentials are exposed to debris-flow hazards (Bertrand et al., 2013).
Sediment recharge is also influenced by the seasonal cycle of the sedi-
ment cascade from hillslopes to the stream network (Theule et al.,
2012; Bennett et al., 2013). It is forced by the low-order channel re-
charge from slope processes (e.g. rock fall, snow avalanches), which
are particularly active during winter (Loye, 2013), and then by sediment
transfer along the main channel linked with the occurrence of debris
flows and intense bedload transport events.
In this investigation, the focus is on rainfall-induced debris flows. For
characterizing the critical rainfall conditions likely to trigger debris
flows, thresholds based on minimum intensity–duration (ID) are widely
proposed. Such a relationship can be established using physically based
modelling of shallow landslides (Frattini et al., 2009; Papa et al., 2013)

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.04.004
0169-555X/© 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
18 C. Bel et al. / Geomorphology 291 (2017) 17–32
or runoff (Berti and Simoni, 2005), or they can be empirically derived
from rainfall measurements. A wide range of empirical ID thresholds
have been defined for initiation of debris flows worldwide, or more gen-
erally for shallow landslides (e.g. Caine, 1980; Wieczorek, 1987; Marchi
et al., 2002; Aleotti, 2004; Chen et al., 2005; Guzzetti et al., 2007; Coe
et al., 2008; Badoux et al., 2009; Baum and Godt, 2010; Pavlova et al.,
2014). These are determined at the local, regional and global scales. Sub-
stantial variability in global and regional scale ID thresholds is an inevita-
ble result of the heterogeneity of event catalogues used in these studies
(e.g. the use of multiple data sources with varying resolution; witnesses
instead of monitoring). Substantial variability also results from the dis-
tances between debris flow and rainfall observation points that occasion-
ally occur (Nikolopoulos et al., 2014). This is an important issue because of
the strong spatiotemporal variability of intense convective storms known
to trigger debris flows. To fix this limitation, radar observations were re-
cently tested instead of rain gauges (e.g. Marra et al., 2014). In the study
presented here, only the local scale is investigated, with the data under
consideration coming from debris-flow monitoring stations, including
rainfall records from rain gauges deployed in the catchment. The variabil-
ity in the local thresholds can be attributed to differences in climatic (e.g.
mean annual precipitation) or geomorphic conditions (Govi and Sorzana,
1980; Guzzetti et al., 2007; Peruccacci et al., 2012). It may also be ex-
plained by differences in the criteria used for discretizing the continuous
rainfall record into a sequence of single rainfall events. The development
of objective criteria for the identification of rainfall events is therefore an
important issue for reducing the uncertainty introduced by the event def-
inition (Vessia et al., 2014; Melillo et al., 2015).
The ID threshold approach can be implemented in early warning sys-
tems; however, the large number of false-positives (i.e. non-triggering
rainfall events above ID threshold) may generate false alarms. The ab-
sence of a clear separation between triggering and non-triggering events
has been attributed to the heterogeneity of initiation mechanisms (either
by channel runoff or landslide), and uncertainty in rainfall estimation
(Berti et al., 2012; Nikolopoulos et al., 2014). Another assumption is
that a minimum ID condition is a necessary, but not necessarily sufficient
condition for initiating a debris flow. Indeed, predisposing factors like
conditions of sediment supply should also be taken into account.
In this paper, the relationships between rainfall characteristics and
debris-flow occurrence in the instrumented catchment of the Réal Tor-
rent (Southern French Prealps) are examined, to distinguish between
triggering and non-triggering events. New predictors that attempt to
represent the antecedent conditions of both rainfall and sediment re-
charge are proposed. For these purposes, a rainfall event database con-
taining both debris-flow triggering and non-triggering events was first
established using a monitoring dataset covering the period from
March 2011 to March 2015. Special attention is paid to rainfall event
definition and flow response characterization. An ID threshold is then
objectively defined, and its sensitivity to rainfall segmentation parame-
ters is investigated and discussed. We then introduce a new logistic re-
gression model designed for the discrimination of extreme rainfall
events above the threshold, and discuss its explanatory variables. Final-
ly, operational outlooks regarding a debris-flow warning platform at a
regional scale are introduced.
2. General setting
2.1. Study site
The Réal is a small alpine torrent characterized by very frequent debris
flows as compared to the Alpine region (several events reported each
year). It is a low-order drainage channel located in the upper Var River
catchment, in the Southern French Prealps (Fig. 1A). The torrent flows
into the Tuébi River and its outlet is close to the village of Péone (Alpes-
Maritimes). Its drainage area is 2.3 km2 at its outlet, with elevations rang-
ing from 1220 to 2090 m.a.s.l., giving a Melton index of 0.57, which is in
the range of commonly observed values for catchments prone to debris
flows (Jackson et al., 1987).The mean slope of the main channel is about
16%. Eight check-dams managed by the RTM service (i.e. French
torrent-control work institution) are present along the main channel.
The active channel width ranges from 8 m in the most bedrock-
confined reaches to 60 m in the widest debris-flow deposition zones.
Severe erosion activity is observed in the catchment, even though
only 18% of the area is non-vegetated (Fig. 1A and B). This erosion is re-
lated to intense gullying of the surficial deposits resulting from the Last
Glacial Maximum (LGM). These are 100-m thick alluvial deposits from
past glacial obstruction of the valley. These LGM deposits are composed
of a matrix-supported mixture of coarse gravels and boulders, the ma-
trix being composed primarily of sands, and secondarily of silts and
clays. Grain-size analysis of the fine fraction of in-channel debris-flow
deposits showed that they correspond to muddy debris flows, despite
their granular appearance in the field (Chambon et al., 2010). The chan-
nel morphology is largely controlled by debris-flow and bedload de-
posits, which can be easily remobilized during subsequent events. The
Réal Torrent can be considered as transport-limited, given the unlimited
sediment recharge coming from the most active gullies. A more com-
plete description of the catchment geology and physical setting is avail-
able in Navratil et al. (2013) and Theule et al. (2015).
The rainfall regime is mountainous sub-Mediterranean with spring
and autumn rainfall peaks, summer convective storms and dry winters.
The mean annual precipitation over the 1951–2014 period was
1055 mm according to the Péone rain gauge from Météo France
(Fig. 1A, 1784 m.a.s.l.). The recurrence intervals of daily and hourly rain-
falls are presented in Table 1.
2.2. Monitoring system
The Réal Torrent has been instrumented since September 2010
(Navratil et al., 2013), with three monitoring stations distributed
along the channel (Fig. 1A, Table 2). Station S1 is located on a 20-m-
wide check-dam in the upper reach, in the close vicinity of the sediment
production zone (300 m downstream of the confluence with the so-
called Big Ravine, the most active sediment source of the catchment;
Fig. 1B). Stations S2 and S3 are deployed along natural cross-sections,
in the middle reach (615 m downstream of S1), and near the catchment
outlet (900 m downstream of S2) respectively. Their purpose is to mon-
itor the initiation and propagation of debris flows from hillslopes to the
catchment outlet.
Each monitoring station (Fig. 1C) is equipped with a tipping bucket
rain gauge with a 0.201-mm resolution (Campbell®), an ultrasonic or
radar flow stage sensor (Paratronic®) and a set of three vertical geo-
phones (GS20DX0 Geospace®) ~100 m away. These are fixed to boul-
ders outside of the active channel. In addition, the stations S1 and
(recently) S2 also have a photo-camera (CC640 Campbell® and
EOS1200D Canon®, respectively). Data are recorded using an environ-
mental datalogger (CR1000 Campbell®) powered by a solar panel,
and are stored in a compact flash module (CFM100 Campbell®). This
setup provides complete energy autonomy and about one month of
data storage autonomy. The flow stage and conditioned seismic signal
are sampled at a 5-Hz frequency (Navratil et al., 2011; Bel et al.,
2015b). Rainfall is recorded with a 5-min sampling period. A GSM com-
munication system makes it possible to access 5-min maximum data
over a web interface, to remotely control the proper functioning of the
stations and detect debris-flow events. The stations are synchronized
during maintenance operations (three to five times per year), with the
clock drift between dataloggers being less than 10 s yr−1.
3. Data and methods
3.1. Event database compilation
The first step in the processing of the rainfall data is to discretize the
continuous rainfall recording into a succession of individual rainfall
 C. Bel et al. / Geomorphology 291 (2017) 17–32 19

N
A B
FRANCE

Réal

Tuébi
S1
S2

S3

Péone S2
Camera
Solar
panel
CData
looking US logger,
Raingauge battery
upstream

Left bank Right bank

Météo-France 100m Geo2B

100m
Geo2A
Raingauge 1m
0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 Geo2B
m 1m Geo2C

Fig. 1. (A) General view of the Réal Torrent catchment on orthophotos from IGN (Institut Géographique National), with positions of the three monitoring stations (S1 to S3) and the Péone
rain gauge from Météo France; (B) view of the proximal part of the basin: sediment production zone with the check-dam supporting the station S1 (background) and propagation channel
(foreground); (C) schematic diagram of a monitoring station (S2 example): ultrasonic sensor (US), set of three geophones distributed along the channel (Geo2A, Geo2B, Geo2C), rain
gauge, and photo-camera (adapted from Navratil et al., 2013).

events. These events can then be classified into triggering or non-
triggering events, using information produced by the flow monitoring
sensors (seismic, ultrasonic and/or radar, and imagery data). The last
step is to extract, for each event, a set of rainfall properties that can be
considered as potential debris-flow triggering predictors. The three-
step data processing is detailed in the following sections.
3.1.1. Discretization of the rainfall time series
The discretization process begins with the segmentation of the
rainfall record into rainfall bursts (sensu Huff, 1967). A rainfall burst is
defined here as an elementary rainfall period, possibly including dry
periods with a duration of less than 30 min, with a rainfall amount
exceeding 0.6 mm (Fig. 2). This is a method for dealing with the
intermittent nature of rainfall data sampled at short time intervals.
This definition differs from the one proposed by Coe et al. (2008), who
considered a 10-min gap between bucket tips. The 30-min gap adopted
here is based on the estimation of the concentration time of the
catchment following a common procedure defined for steep mountain
catchments (Berti et al., 1999; Tecca and Genevois, 2009). The 0.6-mm
cumulative rainfall parameter allows the filtering out of isolated bucket
tips with insignificant rainfall quantities, which could be responsible for
overestimating event duration.
Once isolated, rainfall bursts are aggregated into elementary rainfall
events (i.e. storms), using a minimum duration of rain interruption
(MDRI). This parameter has a strong impact on the event starting and
ending time. MDRI values ranging from 30 min to 12 h were tested
using a time interval of 5 min; 12 h being considered enough to induce
recession of the flood stage. This sensitivity analysis was used to choose
the MDRI.
The rainfall sampling period can also differ from one study to anoth-
er. To ensure comparability between studies, the effect of the time inter-
val on rainfall threshold was also tested by reducing the resolution of
the rainfall data from 5 min to 1 h, before discretization.
This study focuses on both debris-flow triggering and non-triggering
rainfall conditions. As initiation of debris flow often occurs before the
end of the rainfall event, consideration of the entire rainfall event may
produce an overestimation of the true triggering rainfall. Therefore, in
the case of debris flows, it can be relevant to examine only the part
prior to the debris-flow initiation. A comparison between thresholds
obtained from the whole rainfall event and the rainfall event truncated

Table 1 Table 2
Return periods of daily and hourly rainfall; the calculation was made using yearly maxi- Main physical features of the monitoring stations (*the active channel does not occupy the
mum daily rainfall from 1951 to 2014 and yearly maximum hourly rainfall from 2002 to entire cross-section of the check-dam because of a vegetated terrace formed by past de-
2014 from the Péone Météo France station, and fitting a Gumbel distribution with the bris-flow deposits).
Gradex method (Guillot and Duband, 1967).
Station i.d. Elevation (m.a.s.l.) Drainage area (km2) Active channel width (m)
Return period (year) 2 5 10 20 50 100 200
S1 1450 1.3 8*
Daily rainfall (mm d−1) 74 97 112 126 145 159 173 S2 1340 1.7 7
Hourly rainfall (mm h−1) 19 23 26 29 – – – S3 1254 2.0 12
20 C. Bel et al. / Geomorphology 291 (2017) 17–32

rainfall event n rainfall event n+1

> MDRI
5-min rainfall (mm)
6
5
4
3 >30min >30min >30min
2
1 <0.6mm
0
5 35 65 95 125 155 185 215
Time (min)

Fig. 2. Schematic diagram presenting the discretization procedure of rainfall events (MDRI: minimum duration of rainfall interruption).

at the debris-flow triggering time was performed. This required a clear
identification of the triggering time, which was possible using data
from the monitoring stations. Sometimes debris flows consist of a series
of surges with fluctuating intensity. In such cases, one can consider
either the first detected surge, irrespective of its size, or the first surge
regarded as significant. The previous comparison was made by consid-
ering the triggering time corresponding to the first detected surge,
and the first detected surge exceeding 0.7 m in height. The triggering
time also depends on the channel location where debris flows are de-
tected. A comparison of rainfall thresholds obtained for each monitoring
station was then performed to evaluate the effect of debris-flow
detection location.
3.1.2. Classification of flow responses
The variety of flow events observed in the Réal can be classified as
debris flows, immature debris flows or floods with bedload transport
(Arattano and Franzi, 2004). There is a clear continuum between these
different types of flow, but for the statistical discrimination of rainfall
events associated with debris flows, it is necessary to propose some
classification rules. We performed this primarily on the basis of image

A 2000
Nov−03, 2014 (S1)
Flow stage
(mm)

1000

0
2000 2000
Geophone

1000
(mV)

1000 0 12:00 18:00 00:00

10:00 10:10 10:20

B 2000
Aug−21, 2012 (S1)
Flow stage
(mm)

1000

0
2000
Geophone
(mV)

1000

0
13:30 13:40 13:50
C 2000
May−18, 2013 (S1)
Flow stage
(mm)

1000

0
2000
Geophone
(mV)

1000

0
22:00 22:10 22:20 22:30

Fig. 3. Flow stage and seismic signal comparison over a 30-min recording at station S1 and the corresponding images looking upstream for different flow responses: (A) flow event with
bedload transport, with A-bis corresponding to the signal recorded for the entire flow event; (B) immature debris flow; (C) debris flow.
 C. Bel et al. / Geomorphology 291 (2017) 17–32
Table 3
List of variables tested as potential predictors of debris-flow triggering conditions; *Only rainfall events greater than 5 mm were considered, assuming that they would be able to generate
sediment transport in the channel; **Produced high value in summer and low value in winter.
Types of variables Symbols
D Duration (min)
I Mean intensity (mm h−1)
Rainfall event properties
R Rainfall amount (mm)
Imax
AR12h
AR24h
AR48h
AR3d
Antecedent conditions AR7d
AR15d
AR30d
Ddry
AR
DDF
ARDF
nDF
Sediment recharge proxies
nev
DOYsin
nd
recordings, geophone signals, and flow-stage measurements (Fig. 3).
Four different types of flow responses were identified for each rainfall
event:
• No response (NR). No flow is detected on the images or on seismic and
ultrasonic/radar signals.
• Water flow with bedload transport (BL, Fig. 3A). A flow of a few tens of
cm in height is detected on the images and on the stage sensor.
Geophones record a stationary signal (unchanging distributions of
amplitude and power) made of seismic impulses. According to the im-
ages, interactions between the flow and the channel are not very in-
tense (low level of erosion and deposition in the channel where
flow is observed), and result in moderate topographic changes along
the reach, upstream of the station. The textural facies of the channel
reworked by the flow can be associated with the non-cohesive
deposits with well-sorted gravel-sized sediment which have been
observed during post-event field survey. Bedload events could last
for a long time (half a day instead of a few tens of minutes,
Fig. 3A-bis). They were mainly recorded during long-lasting autumn
showers.
• Immature debris flow (IDF, Fig. 3B). A flow with relatively high coarse
sediment concentration and a pulse-like behavior is visible on images.
However, the flow stage sensor does not record a steep front, but a
flood-like hydrograph less than 0.5 m in height. The seismic pattern
from geophones is characterized by an emerging area under the
curve, showing a transient flow generating more energy than in
bedload transport. Post-event field surveys show the same type of de-
posits as for bedload, but with a coarser grain-size distribution. Imma-
ture debris flow often stops before reaching the outlet of the
catchment, and contributes significantly to the channel sediment re-
charge.
• Debris flow (DF, Fig. 3C). A single or many surges are observed on the
images. The flow stage signal presents one or more high and steep
fronts (from 0.5 to 3 m). The geophone signal is characterized by a
sharp exponential rise during the front passage and a significant
area under the curve reflecting high seismic energy. After the event,
several meters of erosion may be observed in the channel. Post-
event field surveys show the presence of coarse lateral levees and
boulder trains, cohesive deposits with the presence of a fine matrix,
and a poorly sorted grain-size distribution (from sand to boulders of
a few meters in diameter). The mean velocity of the debris-flow
front ranges from 1 to 5 m s−1. The mobilized volume ranges from a
few hundred to 20,000 m3. During a single major debris flow, RFID
(Radio Frequency IDentification) tracking showed that some boulders
21
Descriptions and units
Maximum 5-min intensity (mm h−1)
12-h antecedent rainfall (mm)
24-h antecedent rainfall (mm)
48-h antecedent rainfall (mm)
3-days antecedent rainfall (mm)
7-days antecedent rainfall (mm)
15-days antecedent rainfall (mm)
30-days antecedent rainfall (mm)
Dry period duration since the last rainfall event (h)
Rainfall amount of the last rainfall event (mm)
Elapsed time since last debris flow (d)
Rainfall amount since last debris flow (mm)*
Number of debris flows since end of winter
Number of significant rainfall events since the end of winter*
Sine transform of the day of year (DOY): −cos(2π DOY / 365)**
Number of days elapsed since the end of winter
traveled distances surpassing 1.5 km, reaching the confluence with
the Tuébi (Bel et al., 2015a). Such a debris flow was often recorded
during intense convective storms or the snowmelt period.
3.1.3. Extraction of rainfall characteristics
Once the rainfall event collection is established, rainfall characteris-
tics are extracted with the aim of identifying debris-flow triggering con-
ditions (Table 3). The variables are derived from the rainfall recording,
apart from three of them (DDF, ARDF and nDF), which require information
on the recent debris-flow history of the catchment. However, all of these
variables can be easily produced with information available from:
(i) existing real-time monitoring systems using rainfall radar, and (ii)
field surveillance of debris-flow activity from RTM agents. These vari-
ables allow the characterization of the inherent properties and anteced-
ent conditions of rainfall events, as well as the sediment recharge
conditions of the catchment using proxies.
The characterization of the rainfall event properties was done using
a set of variables routinely used for the analysis of rainfall conditions
associated with debris-flow triggering, including the rainfall duration
(D), mean intensity (I) and total amount (R). The maximum 5-min
intensity (Imax) of the rainfall event was also considered assuming that
the intensity for short period would be representative of runoff-
generated debris flow occurring when rainfall intensity exceeds the in-
filtration capacity of the soil. To estimate the critical period contributing
to the soil moisture conditions favorable to debris flow in the Réal,
antecedent conditions over periods ranging from half a day to one
month (ARperiod) were considered. The duration since the last rainfall
event (Ddry) and the rainfall amount of the preceding event (AR) were
also tested.
Beyond climatic factors, one should also consider the quantity of
loose debris available in the catchment that can feed debris flows. On
the one hand, this partly depends on antecedent weather conditions re-
sponsible for previous transport events, which could have filled or emp-
tied the channel. Thus, a set of proxies for sediment recharge conditions
were tested, using not only rainfall data, but also the recent history of
debris-flow activity. The presence of loose debris in the channel is ex-
pected to be partly controlled by the elapsed time since the last debris
flow (DDF). The shorter the elapsed time, the lower the probability is
of observing easily available sediment mass in the channel. It is indeed
well known that debris flows can efficiently entrain loose debris tempo-
rary stored in the channel (Hungr et al., 2005). The in-channel sediment
recharge should also be influenced by the quantity of rainfall since the
22 C. Bel et al. / Geomorphology 291 (2017) 17–32
last debris flow (ARDF), because the occurrence of intense bedload trans-
port events between debris flows may contribute to feeding the channel
(Theule et al., 2012). One should therefore expect high sediment re-
charge conditions with high values of ARDF. On the other hand, a season-
al cycle of sediment recharge can also be expected for low-order gullies
tightly coupled to hillslopes, due to the effect of frost cracking during
winter and the subsequent accumulation of loose debris in colluvial
headwaters. A set of proxies were chosen to test for the effect of the
elapsed time since winter end on debris-flow triggering conditions
(nDF, nev, DOYsin and nd).
3.2. Determination of the minimum ID threshold
We follow the classic approach of minimum rainfall threshold to
identify the critical conditions for debris-flow initiation. This is done
by combining mean rainfall intensity (I) and duration (D). In order to
objectively determine such a threshold, the frequentist approach
proposed by Brunetti et al. (2010) was implemented. Here, the method
is based on frequency analysis of empirical rainfall conditions that have
resulted in immature debris flows or debris flows.
First, it is assumed that debris-flow initiating rainfall events follow a
simple power law:
I ¼ α Dβ
where I (in mm h−1) is the mean intensity, and D (in h) is the duration
of the rainfall event. Linear regression of the natural log-transformed
d ¼ logðαÞ
data is performed as logðIÞ d β ^ logðDÞ with logðIÞ
d the predict-
ed log value of I, and α ^ the estimated coefficients. This operation
^, β
d Þ are normally distributed
assumes that the residuals ε ¼ logðI Þ  logðI
i i i
such as εi ~N(με,σε) with με and σε respectively, the mean and the standard
deviation of the residuals. Next, the cumulative density function (cdf) of
the residuals is plotted and the theoretical percentiles are estimated
from the normal distribution function N(με,σε). Finally, the minimum ID
threshold is chosen by translating the best-fit law at a distance equal to
the distance between the median and the first percentile.
3.3. Design of the logistic regression model
Logistic regression (LR) is used to predict the occurrence of debris
flows from explanatory variables selected from the rainfall characteris-
tics of the events exceeding the ID threshold. The LR model aims to dis-
criminate those rainfall events that effectively triggered debris flows
(i.e. the true positives). The binary response variable takes either a
value of 0 for rainfall events without transport (NR), or a value of 1 for
rainfall events generating debris flows (DF). Other response groups
have been tested (NR vs. DF & IDF & BL; NR & BL vs. DF & IDF; NR & BL
& IDF vs. DF), but only the one producing the best statistical results is
presented here. The probability that the response variable takes either
a value of 0 or 1 is noted as p. The main assumption of the LR model is
that the logarithm of the odds ratio, i.e. log(p/(1 -p)) or logit(p), is a lin-
ear combination of the explanatory variables Xi:
  n
p This varies between 0.5 (no improvement over random assignment)
log ¼ κ 0 þ ∑ κ i Xi
1p i¼1
where n is the number of predictor Xi and κi is the ith linear coefficient.
The probability p of belonging to the debris-flow response group is
given by:
∏i¼1 X κi i
n n
κ 0 þ∑i¼1 κ i Xi κ0
e e
p¼ ¼ ð3Þ
eκ 0 ∏i¼1 X κi i
n n
1 þ eκ 0 þ∑i¼1 κ i X i 1þ
The LR model was implemented in R-software using the function
glm{stats} (Fitting Generalized Linear Models) with the family set to
“binomial” with a “logit” link (Fox and Weisberg, 2010). Beforehand,
the predictors were centered and scaled (Xei ) using mean and standard
deviation.
First, the LR model based on one single explanatory variable is esti-
mated for every predictor Xei in order to test its statistical significance
(hereinafter referred to as the “univariate” LR model). For this purpose,
the Wald Test (WTZ) and Likelihood Ratio Test (LRTχ) are performed.
Predictors with a p-value of less than 0.05 in at least one of the two
tests were preselected.
Second, to choose the best combination of predictors, a stepwise ap-
proach aimed at minimizing the Akaike information criterion (AIC) is
performed using the entire dataset. This procedure was chosen as it
rewards goodness of fit (maximum likelihood estimation) and
penalizes model complexity (number of predictors). The model is
selected using a bidirectional elimination procedure. The stepwise
approach is initiated with the univariate LR model resulting in the
smallest p-value. The range of models examined is defined from the
simplest LR model without predictors, to the most complex one, with
the preselected predictors. The predictors are ranked based on their
test score.
The multiple LR model assumes that the predictors are independent.
Therefore, redundancy between potential explanatory variables must
be avoided. To do so, Pearson correlation is computed for each pair of
ð1Þ
variables in the multiple LR model, and the result should be less than
0.5 in absolute terms to show the absence of linear dependency
between variables. In addition, the effect of collinearity over the LR
coefficients was estimated by computing the variance inflation factor
VIFi for each variable Xei . The VIFi indicates how much the variance of
the LR coefficient κi is inflated in comparison with what it would be if
predictors were uncorrelated. Predictors are generally considered as un-
correlated to moderately correlated, when VIFi has a value from 1 to 5.
Lastly the LR model is validated and its performances are assessed
according to the following. The leave-one-out cross-validation
(LOOCV) method is implemented in order to deal with the small sample
of rainfall events available. The LOOCV method involves using one
observation as a validation set and the remaining observations as inde-
pendent training sets. This operation is repeated for each observation in
the entire dataset. For evaluating the LR model and establishing its pre-
dictive power, the statistics based on a confusion matrix (e.g. Beguería,
2006) are estimated at each iteration. This consists of assessing the
model sensitivity and specificity, which express the proportion of
positive and negative cases, respectively, that are correctly predicted.
The main advantage is that these statistics do not depend on the preva-
lence of rainfall events without debris flow in the dataset. For building
the confusion matrix, the probability of triggering a debris flow is
given by the LR model, and has to be converted into a binary response.
This categorization depends on a single prediction threshold (cutoff).
The relevant choice of this threshold will depend on practitioners, and
on the cost of false-positives or false-negatives. To be independent on
this classification threshold, the receiver-operating characteristic
(ROC) curve is plotted. The ROC plot confronts sensitivity and specificity
for the whole range of possible cutoff thresholds. The area-under-ROC,
which gives a global accuracy statistic for the model, is also estimated.
ð2Þ
and 1 (perfect discrimination). In addition, the Nagelkerke R2 statistics,
i.e. the generalized coefficient of determination, is computed to measure
the usefulness of the model.
4. Results
4.1. Debris flow occurrence and rainfall regime from 2011 to 2014
The comparison of debris-flow occurrence between the three
stations during the 4-year period shows that more debris flows were
detected at station S1 (20 at S1; 13 at S2; and 7 at S3). Indeed, a
 C. Bel et al. / Geomorphology 291 (2017) 17–32 23

Spring Summer Autumn Winter

500
400
2011

300
200
100
0
500
400
2012

300
200
100
0
500
400 Rainfalls (mm)
2013

Péone Météo-France raingauge

300 interannual variability
200 (1951-2014) :
100 95th
0 50th percentiles
5th
500 yearly data
400
2014

300
last station reached
200 S1
100 S2
0 S3
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Fig. 4. Cumulative seasonal rainfalls with triggering of debris flows (DF) and immature debris flows (IDF) from March 2011 to March 2015 in the Réal Torrent. The 5th, 50th and 95th
percentiles of the cumulative rainfalls from 1951 to 2014 at the Péone Météo France rain gauge are represented as a reference of the long term rainfall regime. The number of DF and
IDF recorded at each monitoring station (S1 to S3) per season is specified in the upper-left. Note, one more DF occurred at S1 and S2 on April 26, 2015.

rainstorm can trigger a debris flow, which could stop along the main
channel before reaching the S2 and S3 stations. In 2013 an exceptionally
high number of debris flows were triggered in the upper catchment;
however, it can be noted that only one debris flow reached the outlet.
The inter-annual variability in debris-flow occurrence is much greater
for the S1 station, with fluctuations between three and ten events per
year, as opposed to one and three events per year for station S3. The
mean number of debris flows per year fluctuates between 5.0, 3.2, and
1.7, for stations S1, S2, and S3, respectively. A linear decrease in
debris-flow frequency with drainage area is obtained with these
observations.
Debris-flow occurrence was compared with the cumulative seasonal
rainfall and its 60-year interannual variability, as observed at the nearby
Météo France rain gauge at Péone (Fig. 4). This rain gauge is actually
representative of the long-term local rainfall regime of the Réal catch-
ment. Indeed, despite their location at different elevations and different
hillsides, the rain gauges at the three monitoring stations, and the one at
Péone, showed relatively good agreement, with differences between
hourly rainfalls being below 2 mm for 99% of the values. From 2011 to
2014, the annual rainfall at the Péone rain gauge was 802, 1184, 1431
and 1119 mm. With respect to the mean annual rainfall recorded
since 1951 (1055 mm), 2011 was a dry year and 2013 was rather wet.
The variability in the rainfall conditions during the monitoring period
was representative of the long-term local rainfall regime, except for
spring and winter 2013, which showed rainfall conditions exceeding
the 95th percentile of the long-term record. Compared to other years
in the monitoring period, dramatic debris-flow activity was also
observed in the upper catchment in 2013. However, if debris flows
propagating down to the Tuébi River are considered, 2011 was the
most active year, despite being the driest year of the monitoring period.
If only the summer period is considered at the S1 station, it appears that
wet summers, like 2013 and 2014, present significantly higher debris-
flow activity than dry summers such as 2011 and 2012. This is not
true for the S2 station, which showed the highest activity during the
dry summer of 2011. The debris-flow response to wet and dry
conditions was less clear for other seasons.
From 2011 to 2014, debris flows occurred mainly in the summer
(43%), spring (40%), and autumn (10%), although some also occurred
in the winter (5%). Winter debris flows were likely triggered by snow
melt, as suggested by the unusual positive temperatures observed
during these events. Otherwise, extreme rainfall events in terms of
cumulative rainfall do not necessarily trigger debris flows (e.g. October
2011, November 2012 and 2014, April 2013). This is especially true in au-
tumn, a season with low debris-flow activity, but with a high prevalence
of extreme daily rainfall (64% of yearly maximum daily rainfalls from
1951 to 2014 were recorded during autumn). Thus, in November 2014,
a 138-mm daily rainfall event with a 35-year return period occurred,
without any debris flow detected at any of the three stations.
4.2. ID threshold
4.2.1. Sensitivity analysis of ID thresholds to rainfall event definition
ID threshold assessment starts by choosing the rain gauge that can
be considered as the most representative of the rainfalls responsible
for debris-flow triggering (Nikolopoulos et al., 2014). Data comparison
shows relatively good agreement between the rain gauges deployed in
the Réal catchment (differences of less than 1 mm h−1 for 99% of the
values). However, it appears that rainfalls recorded at the S3 rain
gauge, located close to the catchment outlet, were lower than the ones
observed at S1 and S2, higher up in the catchment. This is consistent
with the altitudinal gradient of precipitation due to the orographic
effect. The rain gauge S1, being the closest to the initiation areas, was
used for the rest of the study; this avoided rainfall threshold
underestimation.
24 C. Bel et al. / Geomorphology 291 (2017) 17–32

A100 100 100

DF and IDF
B 100
NR

10 10

I (mm/h)
Mean Intensity, I (mm/h)

Mean Intensity, I (mm/h)

1 1

10 0.1
5-min MDRI
0.1
6-h MDRI 10
0.1 1 10 100 0.1 1 10 100
D (h) D (h)

1 1 First surge triggering

I 1% =3.90D −0.66
Main surge triggering
−0.65
I 1% =3.99D
Rain end
MDRI (h) −0.64
0.5 3 6 12 I 1% =5.85D
0.1 0.1
0.1 1 10 100 0.1 1 10 100
Duration, D (h) Duration, D (h)
C100 D 100
Mean Intensity, I (mm/h)
Mean Intensity, I (mm/h)

10 10

1 Station 1 1 5 min I =3.99D −0.65

1%
−0.65 −0.64
I =3.99D 10 min I1% =3.83D
1%
Station 2 −0.63
15 min I1% =3.80D
I1%=4.99D−0.70
Station 3 30 min I =3.84D −0.60
1%
−0.74 −0.60
I1%=8.03D 60 min I1% =4.12D
0.1 0.1
0.1 1 10 100 0.1 1 10 100
Duration, D (h) Duration, D (h)
Fig. 5. Sensitivity analysis of the ID thresholds to the parameters used during rainfall event discretization (rain gauge of the S1 station). (A) Impact of minimum duration of rain
interruption (MDRI) from 30 min to 12 h, with a time interval of 5 min (ending time: passage of the main surge at S1). Insets: ID scatterplots and thresholds associated with 5-min
and 6-h MDRI, illustrating the enhancement of the point spread along the threshold, and the point cloud separation between triggering (DF and IDF) and non-triggering (NR) events.
(B) Impact of the rainfall ending time based on the timing of debris-flow surges recorded at the S1 station (3-h MDRI). (C) Impact of the debris-flow detection location, i.e. catchment
size: (S1) 1.3 km2 (S2) 1.7 km2 (S3) 2.0 km2 (3-h MDRI, ending time: passage of the main surge at the corresponding station). The points of the stations S1 to S3 associated with the
same debris flow are linked. (D) Impact of the temporal resolution of rainfall measurement from 5 min to 1 h time steps (3-h MDRI, ending time: passage of the main surge at S1).

The choices of (i) the MDRI, (ii) the ending of rainfall events based on events, which shows a major break-line at the 3-h MDRI (Fig. 6A). With
the timing of the surge detection, (iii) the location of debris-flow a 3-h MDRI, 40% of the burst events are aggregated, while with a greater
detection, and (iv) the temporal resolution of rainfall data, are of great MDRI, there are only an additional 2% or less per supplementary hour
importance in determination of the ID threshold. The effects of these (Fig. 6B). This implies that, for the Réal, if there is no rainfall after at
parameters were therefore analyzed (Fig. 5). least 3 h, the next rainfall event is likely to be an independent storm.
Increasing the MDRI enhances (i) the spread of ID points along the Consideration of the entire rainfall event instead of the portion of the
threshold, and (ii) the differentiation between triggering and non- event prior to debris-flow passage (referred to here as the truncated
triggering events (insets of Fig. 5A). MDRI smaller than 30 min were rainfall event) overestimates the triggering rainfall (Fig. 5B). Similar
also tested (without preliminary burst segmentation), and led to a results were obtained at the Illgraben and the Rebaixader catchments
high scattering of rainfall event ID (R2 of the regression lower than (Badoux et al., 2012; Abancó et al., 2016). However, ID thresholds,
0.5). The effect of MDRI on ID threshold, within a range from 30 min which were obtained using the first or main surge, are similar, because
to 12 h, is substantial (Fig. 5A), especially for values below 3 h. The ID values are only slightly modified for low numbers of events.
larger the MDRI, the more stable the ID threshold is. These results are The debris-flow detection location (S1, S2 or S3) may also impact on
confirmed by the impact of the MDRI on the number of extracted rainfall the recording of the rainfall event by: (i) changing the duration over
 C. Bel et al. / Geomorphology 291 (2017) 17–32 25

A 1/2h 1h 1d 3d
Total number of rainfall events
700 100 Debris-flow volume in S1
over the monitoring period Travel distance (S1, S2, S3)
650
Debris flow
600 Immature debris flow

Mean Intensity, I (mm/h)

Bedload
550 No response
Rainfall amount > 5mm
500
10 I1%=3.99D−0.65
450

400

350
0.5 1.5 3 6 12
Minimum Duration of Rain Interruption, MDRI (h)

B Inter−event duration exceeding 3h

1
20
Inter−event duration not exceeding 3h
Percentage of burst events
(742 events)

10
0.1
0.1 1 10 100
Duration, D (h)
Fig. 7. Minimum ID threshold for the Réal Torrent in the initiation zone using data from
0
1.2h 6.5h 43.7h 2011 to 2014 (MDRI: 3 h; resolution: 5 min; rainfalls before the main surge passage at
the S1 station). The debris-flow magnitude is represented by (i) the debris-flow volume
1/2h 1h 3h 6h 12h 24h 2d 4d 8d
measured at the S1 station (size of the dot) and (ii) the travel distance to the farthest
Duration with no rainfall between burst events (log)
station reached (color of the dot).

Fig. 6. (A) Impact of the minimum duration of rain interruption (MDRI) on the number of
extracted rainfall events. (B) Histogram of the true duration of rain interruption between
burst events with a semi-log scale: demonstration of the low proportion of aggregated
burst events if MDRI greater than 3 h is considered. The bin width is equal to 1 h, except
for the first bin which is equal to 30 min (the duration with no rainfall being not less
than the 30 min burst segmentation parameter).
which rainfall properties are extracted, and (ii) by changing the
sample of rainfall events considered, as all the debris flows did not
propagate down to S2 or S3. The detection location shows a relatively
low effect on the scattering of ID data (Fig. 5C), which emphasizes the
fact that travel time has a negligible influence on event ending time.
However, ID thresholds obtained for the three stations are significantly
different, with an increase in the ID thresholds related to drainage area
(Fig. 5C).
Likewise, the temporal resolution of rainfall data (ranging from 5 to
60 min) has a slight effect on the slope of the threshold, but its impact is
much less pronounced than that of the rain discretizing parameters
(Fig. 5D). In our database, 25 of 37 triggering rainfall events exceed
1 h in duration, which means that the ID threshold is mainly controlled
by points higher than the maximum time step tested. If only summer
triggering events are considered, there are still eight out of 20 events
that exceed 1 h in duration.
4.2.2. ID threshold for the Réal Torrent
A decision was made to use the best rainfall resolution available
(5-min time interval), the MDRI of 3 h and to consider the passage of
the main surge at station S1 as the rainfall ending time. The minimum
ID threshold for debris-flow initiation in the Réal (Fig. 7) corresponding
to 1% exceedance probability, i.e. with 99% of the debris-flow triggering
rainfalls recorded above the threshold, is:
logðIÞ ¼ 1:38  0:65 logðDÞ⇔I ¼ 3:99 D0:65
Most, but not all major debris flows, presented high positive
residuals to the ID threshold, which means that the highest debris-
flow magnitudes, in terms of travel distance or volume, are not
necessarily positively correlated to rainfall amount (Fig. 7). This is
often taken into account in the modelling of debris-flow triggering. In
this dataset, 57 out of 58 rainfall events that caused a flow response
with sediment transport (i.e. DF, IDF, BL), had a rainfall quantity of
more than 5 mm.
The ID threshold allows a certain number of rainfall events with-
out a flow response (NR) to be filtered out, but not all of them (i.e.
269 of 375 NR). Indeed, by our definition, the minimum ID threshold
aims to predict 99% of the debris-flow triggering rainfalls. This meth-
od is intolerant against false negatives and does not care about false
positives. The frequentist approach is based only on debris-flow trig-
gering rainfalls (here, 37 DF and IDF), and therefore, an important
part of the available information related to non-triggering rainfalls
remains unused.
4.3. Discriminating flow responses for rainfall events above the ID threshold
4.3.1. Determination of significant predictors
The distributions of some potential rainfall-based predictors for each
flow response (DF, IDF, BL and NR) are shown in Fig. 8. Only the rainfall
events above the ID threshold were considered, assuming that they
already have potential for debris-flow triggering. Although none of the
potential predictors allow a clear distinction for each flow response, it
is still possible to detect some trends.
Some general features of rainfall events associated with each flow
response can be emphasized. Debris-flow triggering events are charac-
terized by high maximum intensity (Imax), high rainfall amount (R),
and high 48-h antecedent rainfall (AR48h). The latter predictor is the
only one which clearly differentiates debris flows from all the other
flow responses. IDF predominantly occurred after short and intense
events (high Imax) with low rainfall amounts and low antecedent rain-
ð4Þ fall. Bedload transport tended to occur after high rainfalls of moderate
intensity. Rainfalls without a flow response were mostly low intensity
events with low rainfall amounts.
Furthermore, the number of days elapsed since the end of winter
(nd) and the sine transform of the day of year (DOYsin) highlights a
26 C. Bel et al. / Geomorphology 291 (2017) 17–32

100 In the LR model (Eq. (5)), the VIFi of each predictor is less than 2 and
the linear correlation is lower than 0.5, which means that they are
Imax, 5min (mm/h)

80 independent, and the model is therefore valid (Table 5). Each predictor
Debris Flow (DF): 20
increases the explanatory power of the LR model as indicated by their
60 Immature DF (IDF): 17
score below 0.05 in the Wald significance test (Table 5). The linear
40 Bedload (BL): 21 coefficients κi are positive for Imax, AR48h and R and negative for nd,
No response (NR): 106 which is consistent with observations. The higher the event intensity,
20 the higher the rainfall, the higher the antecedent rainfall and the earlier
in the hydrological season an event occurs, the more likely a debris flow
0
DF IDF BL NR is to occur.
120 40
4.3.3. LR model performances
100 The results of the LOOCV of the LR models, from the best univariate
AR48h (mm)

30
one to the best multiple one, are presented in Fig. 10. This emphasizes
R (mm)

80

20
the impact on accuracy statistics of adding explanatory variables in
60
descending order of significance (Table 5, Wald significance test). The
40
10 Likelihood Ratio Test (LRTχ), area under roc (AUC) and Nagelkerke R2
20 statistics demonstrate that every explanatory variable significantly
improves the LR model (Table 6).
0
DF IDF BL NR DF IDF BL NR In the Réal, the generation of debris flows is mainly related to max-
1.0 350 imum intensity Imax (Table 5). However, a univariate LR model based on
spring summer autumn winter

Imax is not sufficient for predicting debris-flow occurrence (Fig. 10, curve
300
0.5 (1)). In this model, depending on the classification threshold (cutoff),
250
the increase in sensitivity (i.e. improving the prediction of debris
DOYsin

200 flow) leads to a strong decrease in specificity (i.e. worse rate of false
nd

0.0
150 prediction). The addition of 2-day antecedent rainfall, AR48h, and rainfall
-0.5 100 amount, R, enhances this relationship between specificity and sensitiv-
50
ity (Fig. 10, curves (2) and (3)). Likewise, the number of days elapsed
since winter nd (i.e. since the beginning of the hydrological year),
-1.0 0
DF IDF BL NR DF IDF BL NR chosen as a proxy of the sediment recharge, increases the specificity at
a given sensitivity by indicating the position in the hydrological season
Fig. 8. Comparison of flow responses as a function of rainfall characteristics introduced in (Fig. 10, curve (4)).
Section 3.1.2, Table 3 (see box-plot significance in Krzywinski and Altman, 2014). Finally, with a specificity score of 0.97 and a sensitivity score of 0.60
for a classification threshold of 0.5, the full model (Eq. (5)) is strong
seasonal pattern of flow response, with a peak of debris-flow occur- regarding avoidance of false positives, but generates a substantial
rence during late spring and early summer, followed by a peak of imma- number of false negatives (Fig. 11). Six of the eight false negatives
ture debris flows during summer, and finally a peak of bedload events were winter and spring debris flows with direct evidences of snow
during early autumn. This seasonal sequence is only partly related to
the seasonal distribution of maximal rainfall intensity, which shows a ●
100 ● DF
peak of occurrence (for values above 40 mm h−1) during summer and IDF
Imax, 5min (mm/h)

early autumn (Fig. 9). It is also interesting to compare debris-flow 80 ● BL

●
● NR
activity during spring and autumn, since maximum rainfall quantity is
concentrated in these two seasons, with equivalent maximum intensi- 60 ●
●
●

●
ties and antecedent rainfalls (Fig. 9). Despite similar rainfall regimes
during spring and autumn, a prevalence of debris-flow occurrence 40
●
during spring is clearly observed. The other proxies of the sediment ●
●
20
recharge, like the rainfall amount since last debris flow (ARDF), the num- ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
ber of debris flows since winter (nDF), and the number of significant 0
rainfall events since winter (nev), do not allow discrimination of the
120
flow responses.
100 ●

4.3.2. Best multiple LR model

R (mm)

80
The predictors that were statistically significant in a univariate LR
model aimed at discriminating the end-members of the flow continuum 60
●
(i.e. DF vs. NR), are underlined in Table 4 and preselected for the ●
40 ● ●
multiple LR model assessment. ● ●

The best multiple LR model obtained from the entire dataset is: 20 ● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ● ● ●
0
 
p spring summer autumn winter
log ¼ 2:57 þ 2:87~Imax þ 1:58AR
f ~ ~d
48h þ 1:85R  1:60n ð5Þ
1p
10 70 130 190 250 310
nd

with p the probability of debris-flow occurrence, Xei the ith predictor

Fig. 9. Seasonal distributions of 5-min maximum rainfall intensity (Imax, 5min) and rainfall
standardized, Imax the maximum intensity, AR48h amount 48 h before amount (R) for each flow response (DF: debris flow, IDF: immature debris flow, BL:
the rainfall event, R, the rainfall amount, and nd the number of days bedload, NR: no response) considering events above the threshold. nd corresponds to
since winter. the number of days elapsed since the end of winter.
 C. Bel et al. / Geomorphology 291 (2017) 17–32 27

Table 4 alpine environments, like the Moscardo (Marchi et al., 2002) or the
Significance tests (WTZ: Wald Test; LRTχ: Likelihood Ratio Test) of the scaled and centered Gadria (Comiti et al., 2014) in Italy, the Illgraben in Switzerland
predictors from Table 3 (Xei ), in univariate LR models considering rainfall events above the (Badoux et al., 2009), and the Rebaixader in the Spanish Pyrenees
threshold. The predictors having p-values below 0.05 are shaded in grey and preselected
for the multiple LR.
(Hürlimann et al., 2014). In the Réal, the event frequency decreases lin-
early with drainage area, with a mean of 5 events per year detected at
Xei WTZ LRTχ the proximal station (S1), and 3.2 at the intermediate one (S2). The
p-value p-value
higher debris-flow activity recorded in the upper catchment is in accor-
Rainfall event properties D 0.6150 0.6223 dance with the combination of higher gravitational energy, and higher
I 0.0189 7.02e-04
sediment supply related to the close proximity of active sediment
R 0.0150 0.0140
Imax 6.17e-05 2.98e-07 sources (e.g. active ravines entrenched into LGM surficial deposits). A
Antecedent conditions AR6h 0.9229 0.9240 lower rainfall ID threshold for debris-flow initiation could be expected
AR12h 0.8264 0.8233 here. This is confirmed by the comparison of thresholds computed for
AR24h 0.1525 0.1710 the three stations (Fig. 5C). The importance of sediment supply condi-
AR48h 0.0238 0.0278
AR3d 0.0785 0.0887
tions on ID-threshold spatial variability is in good agreement with the
AR7d 0.9710 0.9710 recently reported decrease in the regional ID threshold following the
AR15d 0.9169 0.9172 Wenchuan earthquake in China, under the effect of tectonically-
AR30d 0.3484 0.3540 induced accelerated sediment recharge (Guo et al., 2016).
Ddry 0.2273 0.1462
Knowledge on the climatic forcing of debris-flow triggering benefit-
AR 0.3518 0.3733
Sediment recharge proxy DDF 0.6830 0.6874 ted from recent approaches modelling the spatiotemporal variability of
ARDF 0.4937 0.4804 debris flows at a regional scale (Pavlova et al., 2014; Jomelli et al., 2015).
nDF 0.4776 0.4834 Some rainfall variables integrated over the period during which debris
nev 0.4081 0.3997 flows commonly occurred (e.g. number of rainy days during spring
DOYsin 0.0342 0.0230
nd 0.0600 0.0472
and summer), proved to be good predictors of debris-flow occurrence
in the French Alps. Although observations from the proximal station of
the Réal confirm a higher debris-flow activity during wet summers
melting (e.g. images before and after the event). The two remaining and springs, this is not verified by the distal station, which does not
false negatives were the debris flows of April and May 2012, which oc- reveal such a clear response to seasonally-integrated rainfall features.
curred a few days after a snow-melting period. In such cases, rainfalls The most active year at this station (2011) corresponded to dry spring
are not sufficient for describing the triggering mechanism. Depending and summer conditions. Thus, climatic forcings of debris-flow
on the optimum between false negative or false positive findings occurrence show contrasting patterns between proximal and distal
(cost-benefit analysis requirement), another classification threshold conditions, emphasizing the increasing complexity of the response
could be chosen, such as 0.2, which would increase the sensitivity with the size of the geomorphic system. When this size increases,
(0.85) and decrease the specificity (0.91; Fig. 10, curve (4)). Indepen- emerging processes related to channel erosion by debris flows become
dently of the classification threshold, the AUC of 0.925 highlights high more and more critical for the propagation of sediment mass. This is
discrimination of the responses by the full model (Table 6). likely to explain why seasonally-integrated rainfall variability and
debris-flow occurrence are not in phase. Debris-flow occurrence at the
5. Discussion distal station is much more tightly controlled by the occurrence of
high-intensity rainfall events (Fig. 7). This is likely to be due to the re-
5.1. Inter and intra-annual debris-flow activity of the Réal quirement for flashy rainfall conditions to generate runoff surges having
enough energy to erode loose debris stored in the channel. This can also
The 4 year monitoring period of the Réal Torrent provides new explain why maximum daily rainfalls occurring in autumn do not
observations on interannual variability of debris-flow occurrence in generally trigger debris flows. The magnitudes of runoff surges generat-
relation to rainfall regime, in a general context of unlimited sediment ed during these long-duration events are likely to be insufficient to
supply from LGM surficial deposits. In such situations, the primary initiate substantial channel erosion along headwaters or the main
limiting factor for debris-flow occurrence should be the storm frequen- channel.
cy in the catchment, which is expected to be a good predictor of event The seasonal distribution of debris-flow occurrence in the Réal
frequency (Bovis and Jakob, 1999). A high event frequency is therefore shows a classic pattern, with a peak of activity during spring and sum-
expected for the Réal, as heavy convective storms are relatively com- mer, the period during which heavy convective storms generally
mon during spring and summer in the Southern Alps (Anderson and occur. Autumn shows a low debris-flow activity, despite the occurrence
Klugmann, 2014). This is confirmed by the monitoring, with a mean of extreme rainfall events generated by humid air masses coming from
debris-flow frequency of 1.7 events per year at the distal station (S3), the Mediterranean Sea, which are known to generate dramatic flash
during a period shown as representative of the multi-decadal local rain- floods in southeastern France. Such events were observed during the
fall regime, including wet and dry conditions. This frequency is similar monitoring period, but they were seldom associated with a debris
to reported values for active and monitored debris-flow catchments in flow. This is probably because the instantaneous rainfall intensities

Table 5
Statistics of the multiple LR model obtained with the stepwise approach for the entire dataset. Mean (μXi) and standard deviation (σXi) used for standardizing the ith predictor (Xei ); linear
coefficients (κi) and associated confidence interval; variance inflation factor (VIF); Pearson correlation; Wald-significance-test (WTz) p-value: for each predictor, this compares the full LR
model (Eq. (5)) and the LR model without the ith predictor (κi=0), so, there is no effect of predictor order.

Xei μ Xi σ Xi κi Confidence interval VIFi Correlation WTZ p-value

2.5% 97.5% Imax AR48h R nd

(Intercept) – – −2.57 −3.92 −1.60 – – – – – 8.26e-06

Imax 20.15 19.40 2.87 1.70 4.64 1.96 – 0.14 0.11 0.08 7.81e-05
AR48h 10.04 16.32 1.58 0.78 2.57 1.55 0.14 – 0.07 0.01 0.0004
R 19.69 20.40 1.85 0.87 3.16 1.39 0.11 0.07 – 0.25 0.0014
nd 158.55 94.74 −1.60 −2.92 −0.60 1.60 0.08 0.01 0.25 – 0.0058
28 C. Bel et al. / Geomorphology 291 (2017) 17–32

Specificity: True Negative Rate detection location. The range of ID threshold variability obtained from
1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 the sensitivity analysis encompasses the variability of reported ID
1.0 0.0 thresholds from debris-flow studies (Fig. 12A). This result highlights
(4)
the need to define standardized protocols for rainfall data processing.
(3) This is a prerequisite for meta-analysis of data from debris-flow moni-
Sensitivity: True Positive Rate

0.8 0.2 toring stations. A compilation of the parameters used in several recent
(2) studies of triggering conditions, clearly demonstrates that a large part

False Negative Rate

of the variability in reported ID thresholds must be attributed to the
(1) rainfall event definition used, in addition to the physical and climatic
0.6 0.4
properties of investigated catchments (Table 7). This makes it difficult
to cross–compare results between studies. MDRI determination is of
0.4 0.6 paramount importance for the definition of rainfall events, and an
objective way to calibrate this parameter, based on the stabilization of
the number of extracted rainfall events, is proposed in this paper. It
(1) ~
κ 0 + κ 1 I max was shown that, in the Réal, burst aggregation abruptly declines above
0.2 (2) ~ ~ 0.8
κ 0 + κ 1 I max + κ 2 AR48h an MDRI of 3 h. This means that the time of around 3 h corresponds to
(3) ~ ~ ~
κ 0 + κ 1 I max + κ 2 AR48h + κ 3 R a characteristic period in the local rainfall regime, allowing separation
(4) ~ ~ ~ ~
κ 0 + κ 1 I max + κ 2 AR48h + κ 3 R + κ 4 n d of independent rainfall cells, and here being used to isolate triggering
0.0 1.0
rainfall events from antecedent rainfall conditions.
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Local ID thresholds based on data from experimental catchments,
False Positive Rate are generally seen as insufficiently representative of the spatial variabil-
Cutoff
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 ity of debris-flow rainfall triggering conditions for regional-scale
applications (Wieczorek and Glade, 2005). This is certainly true, as
Fig. 10. Performance of LR models depending on flow response classification thresholds by monitoring stations are almost always deployed in active debris-flow
means of a leave-one-out cross-validation: ROC-curves are colored according to cutoff catchments to maximize the chances of collecting information on debris
probability. Contribution assessment of adding an explanatory variable to the LR model: flows. Therefore, such data must be considered as representative of
from the best univariate LR model (1) to the best multiple one (4) with respect to a
supply-unlimited catchments, characterized by the presence of active
random assignment (diagonal dashed line).
hillslope erosion cells, which provide rapid sediment recharge of head-
waters. This is clearly the case in the Réal, where the sediment
production is maintained by active gullying processes in LGM surficial
were too low, and also because most of the easily erodible sediment deposits. It could be expected that ID thresholds derived from experi-
deposits in headwaters were flushed out during the spring and summer mental catchments would largely under-estimate rainfall triggering
convective storms. A similar seasonal behavior has been observed in the conditions for less active catchments, where the primary limiting factor
Moscardo Torrent (Marchi et al., 2002). Two debris flows were observed for debris-flow occurrence is the time needed to reconstruct loose de-
during winter at the proximal station. These events were probably trig- bris accumulations in headwaters (Bovis and Jakob, 1999). However,
gered by snow melting, as suggested by the warm temperatures record- local ID thresholds can be used for regional scale applications, as a con-
ed at the Péone Météo France station, and by images of the channel servative way to identify catchments impacted by triggering rainfall
before the events, which showed the presence of snow cover in the conditions under a supply-unlimited regime. Their main advantage is
channel. These events correspond to false negative cases in the logistic
regression, confirming the atypical nature of their rainfall signature
compared with other triggering events. This encourages investigation
of seasonally-stratified models of debris-flow triggering conditions, confusion Observed
with the integration of temperature data, especially for spring and 1.0 matrix No Response Debris Flow ● ●● ●
No Response True Negative False Negative
Predicted

winter. p≤0.5 103 △8

111 ●●
Occurrence probability, p

●
Debris Flow False Positive True Positive
p>0.5 ▲3 ●12
15 ●●
0.8 106 20 126
5.2. ID threshold
●
●
The sensitivity analysis of the ID threshold and rainfall discretizing 0.6 Debris flow
parameters demonstrated the critical influence of the MDRI, the rainfall
No Response
ending time (which can be set using either the timing of surge detection 0.4
or the end of the rainfall event), and the basin size at the debris-flow

Table 6
0.2
The improvement resulting from adding an explanatory variable to the LR model (Fig. 10):
Likelihood ratio significance-test p-value (LRTχ; each LR model is compared with the pre-
vious simpler one (e.g. LR model (1) vs. LR model (0)), there is therefore an effect of the 0.0
predictor order); area under ROC-curve (AUC; 0.5: no improvement over random assign-
ment; 1: perfect discrimination); Nagelkerke-R2 statistics (0: model does not explain any
variation; 1: model perfectly explains the observed variation).
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10
LR model LRTχ p-value AUC R2 ~ ~ ~ ~
κ 0 + κ 1 I max + κ 2 AR48h + κ 3 R + κ 4 n d
(0) κ0 – – –
(1) κ 0 þ κ1~Imax 2.98e-07 0.699 0.323
Fig. 11. Evaluation of the multiple LR model (Eq. (5)) through a leave-one-out cross-
(2) κ 0 þ κ1~Imax þ κ2 AR
f
48h
7.88e-05 0.871 0.485 validation. Comparison of the observed flow responses with those predicted from the
(3) κ 0 þ κ1~Imax þ κ2 AR
f ~
48h þ κ3 R
0.0021 0.914 0.574 model according to a probability cutoff threshold of 0.5. The corresponding confusion
(4) κ 0 þ κ1~Imax þ κ2 AR
f ~ þ κ4 n
þ κ3 R ~ 0.0007 0.925 0.674 matrix is presented in the upper inset. The box plots correspond to the observed
48h d
responses (white: NR; black: DF).
 C. Bel et al. / Geomorphology 291 (2017) 17–32
A100 1/2h 1h
Mean Intensity, I (mm/h)
10
1 1
Threshold range, Réal
I = 15 D −0.7 Moscardo, IT (Deganutti et al. 2000)
I = 5.4 D −0.79 Illgraben, CH (Badoux et al. 2009)
−0.65
I = 3.99D Réal, FR (this study)
I = 6.20D −0.36 Rebaixader, SP (Abanco et al. 2016)
I = 6.61D −0.77
0.1
0.1 1 10
Duration, D (h)
Fig. 12. Compilation of ID data reported for experimental debris-flow catchments (references in Table 7). (A) Minimum ID thresholds from literature and Réal threshold range obtained by
combining the criteria of minimum duration of rainfall interruption, ending time, and location of debris-flow detection (temporal resolution: 5 min). (B) ID values of the debris flows from
other monitoring sites compared with the Réal minimum ID threshold.
that they are based on high-quality information for both debris-flow
detection and characterization of triggering rainfall. This is clearly
confirmed by the position of the Réal ID threshold, in comparison with
debris-flow events reported from several other experimental
catchments (Fig. 12B). All of these other events are above the Réal ID
threshold, and would therefore have been detected.
The comparison of local ID thresholds is also instructive (Fig. 12A).
The position of the Chalk-Cliff ID threshold may be strongly influenced
by the very short 10-min MDRI used for discretizing rainfall events, as
this leads to consideration of only short duration isolated rainfall bursts
in the definition of triggering conditions (see insets of Fig. 5A). It is also
possible that the local rainfall regime partly explains triggering condi-
tions, since this site is characterized by much drier conditions than
others (Table 7), and this is known to increase ID thresholds (Govi
and Sorzana, 1980; Guzzetti et al., 2007). A more meaningful compari-
son can be made with the ID threshold reported for the Moscardo,
which was based on a 6-h MDRI. Its higher position in comparison
with the Réal can be attributed to the size effect highlighted by the
comparison of the three stations of the Réal (Fig. 5C). The larger the
drainage area, the higher the threshold, because only the largest debris
flows (i.e. those associated with the most intense rainfall events) have
enough energy to propagate over long distances. The 4.1-km2 catch-
ment of the Moscardo at the debris-flow detection site provides an ID
threshold slightly above the one obtained for the distal station of the
Réal. Comparisons with the Illgraben or the Gadria are more difficult,
since both are based on a few reported events. However, given their
large drainage area, one should expect a high position in the ID
scatterplot for these events. The ID threshold established at the
Rebaixader presents a much lower slope than the others, and is outside
of the range obtained for varying discretizing parameters in the Réal be-
yond a 10-h duration. Nevertheless, the ID values are comparable to
those in the literature (Fig. 12B), especially those of Chalk Cliff, which
shares similar characteristics (very small drainage area, very steep
slopes, and unlimited sediment availability). The short MDRI used at
Rebaixader is likely to be responsible for the fact that none of the trig-
gering events exceeded a 10-h duration, or presented a mean intensity
lower than 5 mm h−1, although this alone is unlikely to be sufficient to
explain the threshold position. The ID scattering may be also attributed
to the short response time linked to the catchment characteristics.
29
1d 3d B 100 1/2h 1h 1d 3d
Mean Intensity, I (mm/h)
10
stop upstream
I = 3.99D−0.65
Gadria, IT
Moscardo, IT
Manival, FR
Illgraben, CH
Réal, FR
Rebaixader, SP
Acquabona, IT
0.1
100 0.1 1 10 100
Duration, D (h)
5.3. Prediction of flow responses for rainfall above the ID threshold
The statistical discrimination of flow responses for events above the
ID threshold provided satisfactory results by considering only the two
end-members of the flow continuum, namely debris flows and no
flow responses. The performance of the model was altered by the
inclusion of bedload and immature debris flows in the definition of
the negative response group. This means that complete understanding
of the flow response complexity is not possible by consideration of
only rainfall information. This is especially true for debris flows and im-
mature debris flows, which share very similar rainfall triggering and an-
tecedent conditions. This is clearly illustrated by the distributed position
of immature debris flows on the logistic regression model (Fig. 13). This
is also true for bedload events, although it is possible to propose an LR
model including them in the negative response group (e.g. DF & IDF
vs. BL & NR). It is expected that the critical factor differentiating these
flow processes is the condition of sediment recharge in the upper catch-
ment, which was not well captured by the proxies used in this study.
Improved results could be expected by integrating direct information
on the presence of loose debris accumulations along the most active
headwaters. This kind of data is not easy to capture, even for research
works, but recent developments in unmanned aerial vehicle systems
(UAV), combined with structure-from-motion photogrammetry (SfM,
i.e. multi-image 3D reconstruction; e.g. Smith and Vericat, 2015), or
very high resolution real-time satellite imagery (e.g. 50-cm resolution
Pléiades satellite images from Airbus, which are available at 24-h inter-
vals, http://www.geo-airbusds.com/pleiades), offer promising options
for the remote-sensing detection of sediment recharge conditions in
upper catchments.
Results from the logistic regression allow identification of the best
predictors for debris-flow response above the threshold, of these, the
5-min maximum rainfall intensity appears as the most significant. This
once again emphasizes the crucial role of short-duration intense rainfall
bursts in debris-flow triggering, which likely control the formation of
runoff surges, allowing remobilization of loose debris stored in chan-
nels. However, the 5-min maximum rainfall intensity is not a sufficient
predictor alone. Cumulative rainfall also appears to be a discriminant
feature, probably expressing the fact that the higher the rainfall event
is above the ID threshold, the higher is the probability of the event
30 C. Bel et al. / Geomorphology 291 (2017) 17–32

Table 7
Parameters for rainfall event discretization, compiled from the literature on debris-flow monitoring (MDRI, minimum duration of rain interruption). References: [1] Comiti et al., 2014; [2]
McArdell and Badoux, 2007; Badoux et al., 2009; [3] Deganutti et al., 2000; [4] Bel, in preparation; [6] Abancó et al., 2016; [7] Tecca and Genevois, 2009; [8] Coe et al., 2008. 1 at DF detection
system; 2no criteria were used, storm bursts being very distinct (personal communication with authors, November 2015); 3the whole event is considered when debris flow did not reach
the monitoring station; 4excluding Illbach; 5considering both debris flows and debris floods.

Monitoring site Rainfall temporal resolution (min) MDRI (min) Ending time of rainfall event Basin size1 (km2) Mean annual
precipitation (mm)

[1] Gadria, IT 1 NA2 DF detection3 6.3 480–900

[2] Illgraben, CH4 10 360 DF detection 4.7 700–1700
[3] Moscardo, IT 60 360 Rainfall end 4.1 1660
[4] Manival, FR 5 180 Rainfall end 3.6 1450
[5] Réal, FR 5 180 DF detection 1.3 1055
[6] Rebaixader, SP5 5 60 Rainfall end 0.53 800–1200
[7] Acquabona, IT 5 – – 0.3 900–1500
[8] Chalk Cliff, USA – 10 Rainfall end 0.3 345

triggering a debris flow. The 48-h antecedent rainfall also increases the
chance of triggering a debris flow. This variable confirms the importance
of the saturation of loose debris for favoring debris-flow bulking by
channel erosion, in agreement with recent experimental (Iverson
et al., 2010) and field observations (McCoy et al., 2012). And finally, it
has also been shown that the chance of a debris flow being triggered de-
creases with the number of days elapsed since the end of winter, which
confirms that the sediment availability in the upper catchment is more
important at the beginning of the spring season, and that this source of
sediment declines during the year under the flushing effect of early
storms (Imaizumi et al., 2006; Theule et al., 2012). This decreasing prob-
ability of debris-flow occurrence during the year is also in good agree-
ment with the low debris-flow activity during the rainy autumn season.
Results from the logistic regression, in conjunction with the ID
threshold, could be implemented in debris-flow warning systems,
which operate with real-time distributed rainfall fields from weather
radar, associated with debris-flow susceptibility mapping (Berenguer
et al., 2015; Fouchier et al., 2015). This should decrease the number of
false alarms which inevitably result from the use of conservative ID
thresholds. This perspective is part of the RhyTMME project, which
aims at providing, in a web interface, real-time forecasting for natural
hazards caused by precipitation, to allow improvement of risk
management in the French Southern Alps (Westrelin et al., 2012).
Before this can be accomplished, ID thresholds and LR models have to
be assessed using weather radar rainfall estimates, instead of rain
gauge based estimates (Marra et al., 2014), to test for the ability of
IDF
1.0 BL
Occurrence probability, p
radar rainfall to correctly capture rainfall events associated with
debris-flow occurrences.
6. Summary and conclusions
The goal of this paper was to study rainfall conditions that trigger
debris flows in the instrumented catchment of the Réal Torrent in the
Southern French Alps. This investigation was supported by event data
collection from three monitoring stations operating between 2011 and
2014. Geophones, flow stage sensors and cameras were used to observe
flow responses to rainfall events, and the continuum of flow processes
was simplified into four groups (debris flows, immature debris flows,
bedload transport, and no response). The database includes 20 proximal
debris flows (and 17 immature debris flows), from which only eight
propagated down to the catchment outlet. The mean annual debris-
flow frequency of 1.7 observed at the distal station (S3) is typical of
active debris-flow catchments. However, it is shown that the event
frequency decreases linearly with drainage area, reaching five events
per year at the proximal station (S1).
A classic ID threshold was objectively defined using the frequentist
method. A sensitivity analysis was performed to study the influence of
rainfall event definition on ID thresholds. This revealed the critical
importance of the MDRI parameter (i.e. minimum duration of rain
interruption), as well as the rainfall ending time, which can be set
using either the timing of surge detection or the end of the rainfall
event. It has been demonstrated that the variability associated with
these parameters encompasses the variability of reported ID thresholds
using data from instrumented catchments. In the Réal, a 3-h MDRI was
found to best represent the local rainfall regime; however, it is recog-
nized that this characteristic period would likely depend on the rainfall
regime. The influence of the catchment size on ID threshold is also clear,

showing an increase in the threshold with the size of the catchment.

0.8 A logistic regression was performed for the prediction of flow
responses above the ID threshold. It was only possible to efficiently
discriminate end-members of the flow continuum (i.e. debris flow and
0.6
no response). Statistically, the best model combines the 5-min maxi-
mum rainfall intensity, the cumulative rainfall, the 48-h antecedent
0.4 rainfall and the number of days elapsed since the end of winter. Results
from this analysis show that debris flows are critically controlled by
short and intense rainfalls, soil saturation, and the seasonal cycle of
0.2 sediment recharge in the upper catchment. However, increasing com-
plexity of the flow response to climatic rainfall forcing with respect to
basin size is observed, when the interannual variability of debris-flow
0.0 activity is considered.
The use of such an LR model, in conjunction with ID threshold, could
improve debris-flow early warning systems that operate on precipita-
−15 −10 −5 0 5 10
tion measurements or forecasts, by reducing the number of false alarms.
~ ~ ~
κ0 + κ1 I max + κ2 AR48h + κ3 R + κ4 ~
nd Before this can be implemented, the LR model estimation should be
tested on larger datasets, including longer time series and those from
Fig. 13. Assessment of the occurrence probability for immature debris flows (IDF) and other monitoring sites. This last point should allow the capture of
bedload (BL) events using the best multiple LR model (Eq. (5)). regional effects, leading to selection of different explanatory variables
 C. Bel et al. / Geomorphology 291 (2017) 17–32
or assignment of different parameter weightings. To this end, the main-
tenance of monitoring systems for studying debris flow is of great im-
portance. Finally, combining the LR model with radar rainfalls should
be helpful for development of systems at a regional scale, although
this would require calibration.
Acknowledgements
This investigation was supported by the European project SedAlp
(Project Reference Number 1-4-3-AT, INTERREG Alpine Space
Program). It was carried out in collaboration with the RTM service of
the National Forest Office (RTM06) and the Conseil Général des Alpes-
Maritimes (CG06). The authors would like to thank Kristian Royer for
his assistance in the operational support of the stations. The authors
finally acknowledge the two reviewers: Lorenzo Marchi and Marcel
Hürlimann, and the guest editor Francesco Comiti, for their constructive
comments, which helped to improve the manuscript.
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