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In this activity, not only the procedures for doing GEV and LP methods are illustrated but
also the concept of return period, which is an integral part of the aforementioned methods. As
the name implies, the GEV method is used for data fitting the Type I distribution (aka event-
history modelling) wherein only the maximum (or minimum) values of samples from a set of
annual series data are selected for analysis. On the other hand, the LP method is used for data
fitting the Type III distribution (aka gamma or chi-squared distribution). It is the default analysis for
flood frequency analysis. This basic difference in application will be emphasized later.
a. Comprehend the concept of return period in the planning and design of soil and
water conservation (SWC) structures and programs and interpret the results of the
analysis;
c. Determine whether the number of years data used in the calculation of the design
rainfall magnitude is adequate or not to render reliable estimates.
1 scientific calculator
1 ball pen
1 lot scratch papers
There are three main topics in this exercise which are inseparable from one another, namely: the
concept of return period and the two statistical techniques used for frequency analysis such as
the Gumbel Extreme Value method and the Log Pearson method. The step-by-step procedures
are illustrated below.
A. Return Period
In order to appreciate how FA works, it is essential to understand the concept of “return period.”
Return period (T), sometimes referred to as recurrence interval or frequency of occurrence, is the
average period of time within which the magnitude of any event (usually rainfall) will be equal
to or exceeded once, on the average. T simply provides an estimate of the likelihood of risk
caused by any event in one year.
For example, a 10-year return period of 250 mm rainfall (T10 = 250 mm) corresponds to the
probability of occurrence of a 250 mm rainfall event which will be exceeded on the average
once in every 10 consecutive occurrences. It must be noted that this does not imply that 250
mm rainfall will be exceeded exactly once in 10 consecutive occurrences. Rather, it is the ratio
of the number of magnitudes greater than 250 mm to the total number of events equivalent to
1/10 or 0.10, which means that there is a one-in-ten or ten percent chance that this 250 mm
magnitude will be exceeded in a given year.
T = (n+1)/m (Eq. 1)
Gumbel also defined the relationship between T and probability of occurrence (P) as:
T = 100/P (Eq. 2)
In engineering design practice, T is usually set at 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years, or even up to 500
years depending on the type of hydrologic structure. For agricultural structures such as irrigation
canal wherein the would-be damage caused is minimal when its hydraulic capacity is
exceeded, 2 to 10 years design T will do, 20 years for relatively bigger main canals, and for dams
50 to 100 years or longer is used.
To illustrate the concept of return period, let us consider the hypothetical data in Appendix
Table 1. The step-by-step procedure is, as follows:
Table 1. Design rainfall magnitudes for various return periods using GEV method (n = 19)
Rainfall Probability of
Reference Rank, Return Period, T
Magnitude, xi Occurrence, P
Year No. M (years)
(mm) (%)
15 200 1 20 5
14 158 2 10 10
5 111 3 6.7 15
9 30 17 1.2 83.3
13 28 18 1.1 90.9
2 10 19 1.05 95.2
Do not use this table. Use instead the table provided in the Assessment Tasks part of this exercise.
4
Step A.2 From Appendix Table 1, arrange the maximum rainfalls (x) in descending order,
that is, from highest to lowest. The maximum rainfall is given in the right-most
column.
Step A.3 Rank (M) these magnitudes with the highest as 1, second highest as 2 and so on.
Step A.4 Calculate the corresponding return period (T) for each and every rainfall
magnitude using Equation 1.
Step A.5 Calculate the corresponding probability of occurrence (P) for each and every
rainfall magnitude using Equation 2.
Step A.6 Enter all computed values and/or data in Table 1 above.
For example for Reference Year No. 15 in Table 1 (highlighted in orange), the interpretation
would be… “A maximum rainfall magnitude of 200 mm/day in Ilocos Sur is exceeded once in
every 20 years on the average with a 5 percent probability of occurrence.” Do the same for T2,
T5 and T10.
As mentioned earlier, the GEV method is particularly used to a set of data wherein only the
maximum (or minimum) values are selected for analysis. To illustrate the procedure for GEV
method, let us consider again the hypothetical data (n = 19) in Appendix Table 1. Take note that
the rainfall magnitudes (xi) in the said table are the annual maximum daily rainfalls, which are
presented in the right-most column of Appendix Table 1.
Table 2. Design rainfall magnitude for various return periods using the GEV method (n = 19)
Return Period, T Frequency Factor, K1/ Magnitude of Rainfall, XT2/
2
5
10
20
50
100
1/ To be computed later in Step 6 using Equation 6.
2/ To be computed later in Step 7 using Equation 7.
Do not use this table. Use instead the table provided in the Assessment Tasks part of this exercise.
Step B.2 Compute the grand total rainfall magnitude (Σxi) in Appendix Table 1. This is the
2nd column from left.
(Eq. 3)
where: Mean, mm
Σ Summation sign which means add all individual observations
x Individual observation, mm
n Total number of observations
Step B.4 Compute the standard deviation (s) using Equation 4, thus:
(Eq. 4)
6
Step B.5 Compute the coefficient of variation (cv) using Equation 5, thus:
(Eq. 5)
Step B.6 Compute the frequency factor (K) for each and every return period (T2, T5, T10, T20,
T50 & T100) using Equation 6, thus:
(Eq. 6)
Step B.7 Compute the magnitude of rainfall corresponding to return period (XT) using
Equation 7, thus:
(Eq. 7)
Step B.9 Interpret results for T2, T5, T10, T20, T50 and T100.
If the objective of the analysis is to determine the total design capacity of water impounding
structures, the Log Pearson (LP) method is the most appropriate analysis to be used. To facilitate
the LP analysis, the theoretical log probability frequency factors given in Table 3 sans the
corresponding values for T10 and T50 as determined by Chow (1954) are used. To illustrate the
procedure, let us consider the empirical annual amount of rainfall in Ilocos Sur given in Appendix
Table 2.
Step C.1 With reference to Table 3 overleaf, determine the frequency factor (K) for T10 and
T50 through ratio and proportion.
For example, the K-value for T10 at cv = 0.569 is determined through ratio and proportion, thus:
T K
5 0.61
10 K10 = ?
20 1.89
K10 = 1.04
8
Another example, the K-value for T10 at cv = 0.818 is determined through ratio and proportion,
thus:
T K
5 0.51
10 K10 = ?
20 1.85
K10 = 0.96
Perform the same procedure as above for the rest of the unknown K-values for T10 and T50 at
given corresponding cv. Enter computed values in Table 3.
Table 4. Design rainfall magnitude for various return periods using LP method
Return Period, T Frequency Factor, K Magnitude of Rainfall, XT
2
5
10 1.01
20
50
100
Note: This table is similar to Table 2 above for GEV method. However, they differ in K-values.
The K for LP is determined later in Step 7 below, from which XT is computed later in
Step 8 using Equation 7.
Do not use this table. Use instead the table provided in the Assessment Tasks part of this exercise.
Step C.3 Compute the grand total rainfall in Appendix Table 2, that is, summation of all
annual (X) totals.
Step C.7 By ratio and proportion and with reference to Table 3 above, compute the Log
Pearson probability frequency factors for T2, T5, T10, T20, T50 and T100 corresponding
the computed cv of the sample in Step 6 above.
For example, if the computed cv of the data = 0.670, then the K-value for T10 is determined
through ratio and proportion, thus:
10
Computed cv of Data K
0.596 1.04
0.670 K10 = ?
0.818 0.96
K10 = 1.01
Step C.8 Compute the magnitude of rainfall corresponding to return period (XT) using
Equation 7.
Step D.1 Determine the adequacy of data using the Muckos formula (Eq. 8), thus
(Anonymous, Undated):
(Eq. 8)
11
If y<n, then the number of years design data is adequate and hence
the design magnitude is reliable.
If y>n, then the number of years design data is inadequate and hence
the design magnitude is not reliable. Therefore, more number of years
data are needed.
The t-value can be lifted from any Statistics book. In our example, n =
19 thus df = 19 – 6 = 13.
In the Student’s t table, the first column is df. To find for the t-value,
move downward until df = 13 then move rightward until under column
(0.05). The value of Student’s t therein is 1.771. This is the t-value we will
use in the calculation.
R = ( X100/X2 )
Step D.2 Draw conclusions whether the 19-year data set in Appendix Table 1 is adequate
or inadequate to render reliable estimates of the design rainfall.
12
If space is not enough, continue at the left-side directly opposite the item being answered.
Table 1. Design rainfall magnitude for various return periods using Gumbel method
Reference Year Rainfall Rank, M Return Period, T Probability of
No. Magnitude, xi (years) Occurrence, P
(mm) (%)
15 200 1 20 5
14 158 2 10 10
5 111 3 6.7 15
9 30 17 1.2 83.3
13 28 18 1.1 90.9
2 10 19 1.05 95.2
13
2. With reference to Appendix Table 2, complete Table 2 below. Interpret results. (20 pts)
Table 2. Design rainfall magnitude for various return periods using the GEV method
Return Period, T Frequency Factor, K Magnitude of Rainfall, XT
2
5
10
20
50
100
4. With reference to Appendix Table 2 and Table 3 in Item No. 3, complete Table 4 below.
(10 pts)
Table 4. Design rainfall magnitude for various return periods using LP method
Return Period, T Frequency Factor, K Magnitude of Rainfall, XT
2
5
10
20
50
100
5. From Appendix Table 3, select one PAGASA Weather Stations of your choice and analyze
the said data using both GEV and LP methods. Use the space provided below. If space is not
enough, continue at the back of this page and succeeding pages. (30 pts)
15
16
(Draw conclusions as to the things you have learned and experienced out of this exercise.)
17
Appendix Table 1. Hypothetical daily rainfalls (mm) in 19 consecutive years for the rainiest month of the year in Ilocos Sur
Day of the Rainiest Month Total Max.
Year
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
1
- - - 3 3 45 15 - 1 5 - - 4 6 - - 40 12 - - - - - - - - - - - - - 134 45
2
- - 2 10 9 4 10 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 35 10
3
11 3 - 2 13 - 8 26 12 1 5 6 - - - - - - - - - - 7 4 - 22 5 31 67 - - 223 67
4
29 - 6 99 4 3 - - - - - - 5 3 1 - - 1 - - - - - - - 19 5 3 21 - 46 245 99
5
111 8 8 21 1 - 11 11 11 26 1 - - - - - - - - 5 7 4 8 2 53 3 6 1 3 21 - 312 111
6
- - - - 1 14 4 33 3 - 12 - 11 15 3 25 21 - - 2 11 - 2 18 38 - 5 4 7 6 - 235 38
7
- - - - - - - 1 - 1 5 1 7 - 1 36 4 - - - 4 - - 1 - - 3 - - - - 64 36
8
- - - 10 - 23 3 - 49 12 57 2 - 1 - - 18 3 - - - - 11 4 - 1 1 23 - 15 2 235 57
9
- - 2 9 - - - 6 3 - - 2 - - 9 16 14 9 - - - - - - - - - - - - 30 100 30
10
4 - 41 46 - - - - - - 23 7 1 18 8 2 4 - - 6 38 3 14 2 - - - - 1 13 - 231 46
11
92 3 - 2 - - - 9 6 5 - 13 - - 1 17 22 3 1 20 - 20 7 14 1 1 22 1 22 12 - 294 92
12
- 65 19 - 35 3 27 10 - 13 32 1 16 2 - - - - - - - - 1 - - - - 7 12 - - 243 65
13
- - - - 9 10 - - - - - - - - - - 7 3 3 - - - - - 28 24 22 - - - 8 114 28
14
41 158 1 - 10 - 6 11 - - 1 - 7 1 13 12 11 - - 2 4 - - - - - - - - - - 278 158
15
- 9 - 10 - 4 - - 2 5 - 13 16 24 2 7 - - - - 200 94 4 - 5 1 12 14 - - - 422 200
16
74 7 - 2 4 - 10 - - - - 42 11 - - 1 4 1 14 - 4 8 - - - 20 5 - - 30 5 242 74
17
7 23 4 - 1 13 29 40 13 14 1 4 - - - - - 3 2 - - - - - 20 4 37 15 6 4 - 240 40
18
11 13 - 2 - - - 3 - 8 56 3 44 5 - - - - 4 4 2 3 - - - 11 - - - - - 169 56
19
11 - - - - 3 - - 2 54 65 16 - - - - 19 14 - - 9 - - - - - - - 1 7 - 201 65
Source: Oosterbaan (1994)
18
Appendix Table 2. Monthly total amount of rainfall in Ilocos Sur (1995 – 2015)
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1995 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 160.9 170.0 838.8 360.0 193.4 188.2 11.2 4.0 1926.5
1996 T 0.0 0.0 8.2 96.4 254.3 1089.1 551.4 375.8 88.7 271.6 0.0 2735.5
1997 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 219.4 278.5 228.4 506.1 85.2 27.4 19.4 1.0 1365.4
1998 0.6 0.0 0.0 T 283.1 100.1 180.4 468.3 649.0 269.6 211.8 2.2 2165.1
1999 8.2 0.0 59.3 11.4 109.1 435.1 482.8 625.8 243.1 288.5 5.7 4.4 2273.4
2000 0.0 3.0 3.8 9.6 276.4 173.8 838.8 475.6 249.7 293.3 2.5 3.5 2330.0
2001 0.0 8.6 58.6 7.0 282.7 207.0 -2.0 298.5 646.0 11.4 4.4 3.6 1527.8**
2002 T 24.2 25.8 6.2 292.7 279.2 897.0 190.8 117.2 123.5 4.0 0.0 1960.6
2003 8.2 0.0 0.0 6.2 422.9 342.2 246.5 590.8 305.0 23.2 19.6 0.0 1964.6
2004 T 7.8 0.0 0.0 180.1 358.4 247.5 1032.1 -2.0 17.7 11.8 14.2 1869.6**
2005 T 0.0 0.3 13.0 59.7 438.1 280.9 425.3 482.2 119.5 1.5 3.8 1824.3
2006 67.4 0.0 T 0.0 140.0 202.2 860.4 298.9 486.7 10.3 54.3 3.1 2123.3
2007 0.6 0.0 6.4 T 224.0 146.2 124.1 1094.8 208.2 69.7 236.3 T 2110.3
2008 0.2 4.0 T 9.8 61.6 27.0 874.8 1028.9 517.3 27.6 47.8 0.0 2599.0
2009 T 0.0 T 189.5 277.6 315.0 1092.9 235.3 543.6 901.0 3.2 0.0 3558.1
2010 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.4 258.1 242.8 170.0 472.0 390.5 -2.0 18.3 T 1562.1**
2011 2.0 11.6 -2.0 0.0 76.9 576.4 286.2 658.0 450.5 47.4 16.2 16.5 2141.7**
2012 2.0 0.5 6.0 9.3 233.9 647.6 624.9 1038.2 192.4 29.3 0.2 8.7 2793.0
2013 7.7 0.0 0.3 36.0 115.3 285.1 259.6 1137.8 411.7 124.7 31.7 51.6 2461.5
2014 0.0 1.7 -2.0 0.0 23.0 563.6 -2.0 520.6 661.6 29.0 0.0 1.9 1801.4
2015 0.3 0.3 0.2 3.5 17.4 46.5 1009.1 587.0 98.8 248.2 0.0 20.6 2031.9
Source: Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (2017)
Notes: -2.0 means data is missing
T means trace
** means annual values with missing months
19
Appendix Table 3. Monthly mean rainfall in PAGASA weather stations (mm, n>30 years)
Station Name Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1. Alabat, Quezon 250.2 151.8 127.4 91.9 114.1 182.4 238.9 150.0 253.1 509.7 551.7 636.6 3257.6
2. Ambulong, Batangas 22.7 16.0 21.5 35.0 116.6 228.7 329.6 286.9 255.0 218.4 144.7 92.0 1767.0
3. Appari, Cagayan 95.0 56.5 39.0 40.2 115.7 157.6 181.1 191.1 243.8 295.9 285.5 186.6 1888.1
4. Baguio City 15.2 23.4 46.0 104.1 341.1 475.8 781.9 905.0 570.9 454.3 97.4 26.2 3841.4
5. Baler(Radar) 220.2 179.1 185.0 215.4 329.1 238.8 272.7 164.9 282.1 386.0 368.7 405.9 3247.9
6. Basco, Batanes 130.1 122.1 58.3 47.6 224.6 234.6 223.5 304.6 350.8 281.2 272.0 96.8 2346.2
7. Borongan, Eastern Samar 613.7 345.4 312.6 225.5 207.2 233.4 249.9 146.4 189.9 347.3 508.4 674.8 4054.5
8. Butuan City 318.0 225.0 145.4 109.7 115.5 154.0 143.9 105.6 126.3 178.4 197.9 238.2 2057.8
9. Cabanatuan 16.9 16.6 18.4 47.4 179.1 193.7 371.1 372.0 320.4 186.4 90.0 42.9 1854.9
10. Calapan 112.9 64.7 75.9 116.0 196.4 263.6 253.0 195.4 235.5 326.5 281.0 216.2 2337.1
11. Calayan 170.6 126.2 49.4 58.0 159.2 170.9 209.1 228.4 318.5 375.4 335.1 219.5 2420.3
12. Casiguran 272.5 226.6 203.0 183.0 238.5 225.2 282.8 208.8 280.9 537.4 591.3 495.6 3745.6
13. Catarman 456.7 291.9 234.3 143.9 145.2 195.3 208.2 173.6 210.5 338.4 529.7 628.2 3556.0
14. Catbalogan 240.4 197.4 162.7 118.0 167.8 220.3 274.2 198.3 270.5 305.7 334.9 322.7 2813.1
15. Clark, Pampanga 17.4 18.6 28.4 65.0 221.8 241.2 422.6 429.4 293.1 177.0 78.0 34.2 2026.8
16. Coron 18.5 14.0 15.4 38.1 198.1 360.8 479.9 466.3 447.1 250.8 118.6 74.0 2481.7
17. Cotabato City 88.4 83.9 119.9 146.7 268.5 312.3 325.4 244.8 256.6 285.5 216.3 139.6 2487.8
18. Cuyo 7.4 3.1 19.8 41.6 193.1 327.3 402.9 391.2 341.5 302.8 112.3 52.5 2195.6
19. Daet 266.3 180.1 150.4 131.3 138.5 183.9 237.1 165.4 257.9 496.3 542.9 588.4 3338.4
20. Dagupan City 6.7 10.7 22.2 60.4 209.8 337.9 499.6 581.3 368.4 215.9 53.9 14.1 2380.9
21. Davao City 140.3 109.4 108.4 124.7 158.7 186.7 165.0 170.0 170.4 174.8 138.1 112.6 1759.1
22. Dipolog, Zamboanga Del Sur 129.2 90.4 82.5 103.5 150.9 259.5 216.2 194.5 199.1 291.3 380.9 254.8 2352.9
23. Dumaguete 82.0 61.4 46.3 53.7 81.8 129.7 122.7 110.6 127.3 156.7 138.7 107.3 1218.4
24. General Santos 79.4 59.5 51.4 58.3 75.0 118.1 107.9 91.3 87.8 91.1 75.3 64.6 959.9
25. Guiuan, Eastern Samar 371.3 276.7 218.8 125.7 141.2 185.6 211.5 160.6 177.4 290.0 406.7 440.1 3005.6
26. Hinatuan 776.3 547.6 448.3 318.7 252.9 258.1 218.9 186.7 206.5 270.9 424.9 55.1 4464.9
27. Iba, Zambales 4.1 9.3 19.8 38.1 254.7 519.9 838.1 897.7 559.5 234.2 62.3 13.2 3450.7
20
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