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R W E E L YP O R T

04 MAR 09 MAR 2013

Blow by Blow On Bullions, Base metals, Energy

MAJOR EVENTS
MCX silver for May delivery opened lower on Monday as fears pertaining to economy of US sent investors rushing for Dollar. The commodity may trade range bound with major support at 54000 and resistance at 55200. The US President Obama has signed into law the US Congress bill to effect so-called sequestration or cuts to the tune of $1.2 trillion over the next decade. This year would see cuts of $85 billion getting effected. This has invariably lent some support to gold and silver prices as the cuts would be the first in line to spark a curb in government spending wiping out some liquidity from the economy along with joblosses and attached risks and uncertainties. The markets also appear to be worried of the property bubble in China. The Chinese government has adopted measures including hiking of down payment and interest rates for second-home mortgages in an apparent measure to cool the property markets. On the MCX, crude oil sentiment for March delivery is expected to remain sideways to bullish for the day. Crude oil opened lower following profit booking in prices after huge buying rally in yesterdays session. Crude oil in India is likely to get support from from INR depreciation against USD in today's trading session. On India's MCX, crude oil for delivery on March 19 was seen trading at Rs.5018 a barrel, a loss of 1.14% as of 03.29 PM IST, Friday. U.S. is pumping 7 million barrels of oil per day, the highest levels since 1992, according to reports. This is because of increased production at shale formations in Texas and North Dakota. Lower than expected US GDP data and low manufacturing PMI data are pressurizing the prices of crude oil. Data on Thursday showed growth in the worlds largest economy and oil consumer came in at 0.1 per cent in October-December, better than the initial estimate of a 0.1 per cent contraction but lower than expectations of 0.5 per cent growth. On India's MCX, copper for delivery on April 30 was spotted trading at Rs 426.30, fall of 1.22% as of 01.41 PM, IST. Mixed US economic data and low demand from China due to high inventories and low manufacturing PMI are keeping pressure on the investors.US ISM Manufacturing data release and Fed chairman Bernanke speech this evening is likely to have high impact on base metal prices. Barclays expect China's exports of refined copper to be stronger in 2013 than in 2012 and if Januarys flow was to be sustained China would export 315Kt refined copper which is in line with anecdotal reports of contracted tonages. Copper cathode imports of China rose slightly from 239kt in December 2012 to 243Kt in January 2013 but were down 27.5% from last years high base. Exports expanded slightly to 26Kt from 25.5Kt in December, and net imports edged up slightly to 217Kt.

'MCX Silver May futures to see buying momentum only above 55200'. MCX Crude Oil sideways to bullish; resistance at 5050.

MCX Copper sideways to negative.

ECONOMIC CALENDER
DATE & TIME
Mar 4, 6:30pm 11:45pm Mar 5, 8:30pm 8:30pm Mar 6, 6:45pm 8:30pm 9:00pm Mar 7, 12:30am 6:00pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 9:00pm 11:45pm Mar 8, 1:30am 3:00am 7:00pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 8:30pm

DESCRIPTION
FOMC Member Yellen Speaks FOMC Member Powell Speaks ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Factory Orders m/m Crude Oil Inventories Beige Book Challenger Job Cuts y/y Trade Balance Unemployment Claims Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q Natural Gas Storage FOMC Member Powell Speaks Consumer Credit m/m Bank Stress Test Results Non-Farm Employment Change Unemployment Rate Average Hourly Earnings m/m Wholesale Inventories m/m

FORECAST

PREVIOUS

55.0 46.3

55.2 47.3

165K

192K

-2.0%

1.8% 1.1M

-24.4% -42.7B 356K -1.5% 4.2% -38.5B 344K -2.0% 4.5% -171B

15.0B

14.6B

151K 7.9% 0.2% 0.4%

157K 7.9% 0.2% -0.1%

GOLD
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX GOLD last week showed choppy movement and gave a breakout of psychological level i.e. 30000 but unable to sustain above this and found support of 29430. Now, 29430 act as a strong support for it only below this it may become bearish. On higher side 30150 will act as resistance for it, above this next resistance will be 30500.

PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy above 30150 for the targets of 30700 with stop loss of 29500.

S1
29430

S2
29130

S3
28750

R1
30150

R2
30370

R3
30640

SILVER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX SILVER last week showed sideways movement and formed candlestick pattern doji in daily chart with high volume. Now 55300, will act as strong resistance for it above this it may test next resistance i.e. 56100. On lower side 53800 will act as strong support for it only below this again bearish movement is expected.

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this point of time is to buy above 56100 for the target of 57500, with stop loss of 54800.

PIVOT TABLE S1
53800

S2
53000

S3
52200

R1
56100

R2
54350

R3
58600

CRUDEOIL
TECHNICAL VIEW
Crude oil last week followed sideways movements and found support of 50% retracement i.e. around 4970. Now 4970 will act as immediate support for it below this bearish trend expected towards the next support i.e. 4900. Any correction may test the resistance zone of 5050-5100 .

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell below 4985 for the target of 4875 with stop loss of 5110.

PIVOT TABLE S1
4985

S2
4940

S3
4875

R1
5070

R2
5130

R3
5190

COPPER

TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Copper had showed choppy movement due to expiry and near towards its strong support i.e. 424. Now 424 will act as Immediate support for it, if it able to sustain below this then next support is seen around 418. Near term resistance is seen around 434 above which strength can be observed.

PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX COPPER will be buy above 435, with stop loss of 425 for the targets of 441-445.

S1
423.95

S2
418

S3
412

R1
434.25

R2
440

R3
445

DISCLAIMER

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