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Economic | 30 November
Research 2018 2018
| 30 November
Furthermore, we see housing to still print upsides amid rising prices of cements, concretes,
and housing rent continuing last month’s trend. Based on our equity analyst’s price
tracking, cement bag sales price still picked up, partly due to cost pressure as coal price
rose in 3Q18 (usually the impact lags by one quarter) (see exhibit 3 and 4). We assign a
0.10ppt contribution to housing component (vs. 0.10ppt in Oct18 and 0.07ppt in
November 2010 – 2017).
Subtle inflation for the year. If indeed the Nov18 inflation is in-line with our forecast, it
would reach around 3.4% YoY in YE18, lower than our estimate at 3.59% (we use
December 2010-2017 average of 0.87% MoM for next month’s preliminary estimate). On
the policy rate front, we believe that the movement will largely depend on
macroeconomic data (less likely inflation) for this year. BI is likely to maintain its policy rate
at 6.0% until year-end, in our opinion. However, a bigger risk for inflation year might occur
Leo Putera Rinaldy
next year considering the government’s potential plan to adjust retail fuel prices, therefore
Chief Economist
we maintain our policy rate forecast at 6.50% for FY19.
+6221 5296 9406
leo.rinaldy@mandirisek.co.id
EXHIBIT 1. INFLATION SUMMARY
Nov-18
Commodity CPI Weight (%) Contribution
% MoM
(ppt)
Rice 3.8 0.27 0.01
Broiler chicken meat 1.2 (0.02) (0.00)
Beef 0.6 0.08 0.00
Broiler chicken egg 0.7 2.02 0.01
Red onion 0.3 12.48 0.04
Garlic 0.2 0.82 0.00
Red chili 0.4 (1.40) (0.01)
Chili pepper (Rawit) 0.1 1.86 0.00
Cooking oil 1.0 (0.54) (0.01)
Total 8.22 0.05
Source: National Strategic Food Information Center (PIHPS), Mandiri Sekuritas estimate (as of 29Nov18)
EXHIBIT 3. CEMENT BAG SALES PRICE INCREASED.. EXHIBIT 4. ..MAINLY DUE TO RISING COAL PRICE IN 3Q18
Cement bag sales price (%YoY) Coal Price (% YoY, 3mma)
15.0% 90%
80%
10.0%
70%
5.0% 60%
0.0% 50%
50 kg 40% 40.3%
‐5.0% 34.0%
30%
‐10.0% 40 kg 25.2%
20%
‐15.0% 10%
‐20.0% 0%
Jan‐17
Sep‐17
Nov‐17
Jan‐18
Sep‐18
Nov‐18
May‐17
May‐18
Mar‐17
Jul‐17
Mar‐18
Jul‐18
Apr‐18
Feb‐18
Sep‐18
Mar‐18
Jun‐18
Jul‐18
Aug‐18
Oct‐18
Jan‐18
Nov‐18
May‐18
External Sector
Exports (% yoy) - Merchandise (3.7) (15.4) (3.2) 16.9 2.6 3.1
Imports (% yoy) - Merchandise (4.5) (19.7) (4.6) 16.1 6.1 8.4
Trade Balance (US$ bn) 6.9 13.3 15.4 18.9 17.8 10.4
Current Account (% of GDP) (3.0) (2.0) (1.8) -1.7 -2.2 -2.2
Current Account (US$ bn) (26.2) (17.6) (16.3) -17.3 -19.9 -26.4
External Debt (% of GDP) 29.9 35 35 31 29 28
International Reserves (US$ bn) 111.9 106 116 130 124 129
Rp/US$ (period average) 11,864 13,397 13,300 13,380 13,799 13,751
Rp/US$ (year end) 12,435 13,856 13,492 13,588 13,779 13,754
Other
BI rate (% year end) 7.75 7.50
BI 7 days reverse repo rate (% year end) 4.75 4.25 5.50 6.00
Headline Inflation (% yoy, period average) 6.4 6.4 3.5 3.8 3.3 3.9
Headline Inflation (% yoy, year end) 8.36 3.35 3.00 3.61 3.59 3.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) (2.2) (2.3) (2.5) (2.5) -2.7 -2.6
S&P's Rating - FCY BB+ BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB-
S&P's Rating - LCY BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB-
Teddy Hariyanto
Credit Analyst
teddy.hariyanto@mandirisek.co.id
+62 21 5296 9408
Yudistira Yudadisastra
Credit Analyst
yudistira@mandirisek.co.id
+62 21 5296 9698
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