Role of Indian Media in Covering General Elections

ROLE OF INDIAN MEDIA:
COVERING GENERAL ELECTIONS
THESIS
SUBMITTED TO THE
UNIVERSITY OF LUCKNOW
FOR THE DEGREE OF
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
In
JOURNALISM AND MASS COMMUNICATION
BY
NIRAJ KUMAR
Under the Supervision of Ex-officio Head

DR. MUKUL SRIVASTAVA Department of Journalism &
Mass Communication
Prof. RASHMI PANDE
DEPARTMENT OF JOURNALISM AND MASS COMMUNICATION

UNIVERSITY OF LUCKNOW
LUCKNOW
2014
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I wish to thanks many persons for completion of this thesis directly or indirectly, no
matter how much one may wish to do so, the acknowledgements of indebtness to others
is seldom complete. However, it is possible to mention but a few who have contributed
most in completion of this work.
My first and foremost acknowledgement goes to Dr. Mukul Srivastava, Department of

Journalism and Mass Communication, University of Lucknow for his guidance and
encouraging advice throughout the completion of process of this thesis. I am also
thankful to Mr. Mahesh Kumar along with other members of the Department of
Journalism and Mass Communication, University of Lucknow for necessary help in
research study.
I am also thankful to the Chief Election Commissioner of India Mr. V.S. Sampath, former
Chief Election Commissioner of India Mr. S.Y.Quraishi and Senior Journalists from Print
and Electronic for giving me interviews to complete this thesis. My thanks also goes to
the 400 media professionals who answered on my questionnaire.
It’s also my duty to acknowledge a few crucial contributions towards completing of this
thesis. I thanks Mr. Sanjeev Trivedi, Mr. Tirthesh Nandan, Mr. Awinash Kumar, and Mr.
Saugat Biswas, all were guided me when I need them to understand the particular thing
related to this thesis. I wish to acknowledge the help of Ms. Rashmi Dixit, who always
reminded me about the deadline of this study. My great acknowledgement goes to my
cousion brother Dr. Pankaj Singh, who is not with us, but because of him what I have
achieved till now in the field of academic.
I would like to give thanks to Mr. Rajesh Kumar, who has supported me throughout my
professional career and because of whom I am what I am today.
Thanks and wish my deepest gratitude to my father, Shri Bhagwati Singh and my sisters
Sanskriti Singh and Sabhyata Singh and brother, Dhiraj Kumar Singh for help and moral
support in whole life. I am grateful to my family members, especially Mr. Rajesh Ranjan
Singh and my friends, Mr. Keshvendra Kumar Jha, Mr. Mukund, Mr. Sudhir Mishra and
Mr. Abhay Mishra for inspiring me at all the stages of this study.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
My special thanks goes to Shri Uday Kumar Singh (Phuphaji), who is no more and
Shrimati Champa devi, both have helped me and my family at crucial times of our life.
Finally, if there was one person, who was very much in shaping my life in all aspects was
my mother Vimla Devi . I wish she were alive to read these lines.
Thanks everybody for helping me in completion of this study.
Niraj Kumar
DECLARATION
I, Niraj Kumar, Ph.D. research Scholar, University of Lucknow, Lucknow, hereby

declare and undertake that the thesis submitted by me entitled “ Role of Indian Media:
Covering General Elections” in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the award of
the degree of Doctor of Philosophy is my original research work and the same has not
been submitted for the award of any degree or diploma in any university or institution
elsewhere. The material quoted from any other source has been duly acknowledged in the
text.
Niraj Kumar
Research Scholar
Dr. Mukul Srivastava,
Department of Journalism and Mass Communication
University of Lucknow,
Lucknow- 226007
CERTIFCATE
This is to certify that the research dissertation entitled, Role of Indian Media: Covering
General Elections has been completed by Niraj Kumar under my supervision and
guidance.
(Dr. Mukul Srivastava)

CONTENTS
Acknowledgement
Declaration
Certificate
Preface
CHAPTERS PAGE NO.

1. MASS MEDIA, DEMOCRACY AND ELECTIONS 1-17
1.1 Mass Media
1.2 Media and Society
1.3 Media and Democracy
1.4 Media and Elections
1.5 History of Mass Media in India
1.6 Need and Importance of the study
1.7 Review Literature
2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 18-20

2.1 Objectives:
2.2 Hypotheses:
2.3 Data Collection:
2.4 Data analysis:
3. DEMOCRACY AND INDIAN ELECTIONS: THE EXPERIENCE

OF MORE THAN SIX DECADES 21-38
3.1 Right to Elect Representatives through Elections
3.2 The Multi-party System in Indian Democracy
3.3 Regional Parties And Coalition Politics
3.4 Democracy in Danger
4. EXIT POLL AND OPINION POLLS: ROLE OF SURVEYS

IN PREDICTING AND SHAPING THE OUTCOME 39-82
4.1 Significance of surveys in the largest democracy of the world
4.2 Role and Impact of Surveys in Various elections
4.3 Analysis of exit polls and actual results of different elections
4.4 Results of Analysis
4.5 Television as a medium of popularizing surveys
4.6 Growing demand to discontinue with poll surveys
4.7 Exit Polls and Opinion Polls and Election Commission of India
4.8 Conclusion
5. THE PAID NEWS SYNDROME: IS IT CUTTING INTO

THE ROOTS OF DEMOCRACY 83-94
5.1 Paid News: Past and Present
5.2 Paid News Undermining Democracy: Press Council Report
5.3 Paid News in Parliament
5.4 Election Commission of India and Paid News
5.5 Menace of Paid News-Who Will Bell the Cat?
6. RISE OF NEWS CHANNEL AND ELECTIONS 95-125

6.1 Emergence of Television News Channel in India
6.2. Media Coverages of the Elections through the Ages and
Heightened Role Now
6.3 Survey Research
6.4 Results
7. INTERPRETATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS 126-133

7.1 Limitations and Further Scope of the Study
BIBLIOGRAPHY 134-140
APPENDICES
Questionnaire
Interviews
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure Figures Page No.
Numbers
Figure 6.3.1 Respondents on role of Opinion poll surveys 103
Figure 6.3.2 Respondents on media influence on Opinion poll 104
Figure 6.3.3 Respondents on opinion poll surveys in India 105
Figure 6.3.4 Respondents on continuation of opinion polls 106
Figure 6.3.5 Respondents on Opinion polls biases 107
Figure 6.3.5 Respondents on Bandwagon effect on Opinion poll 108
Figure 6.3.7 Respondents on opinion polls and Its techniques 109
Figure 6.3.8 Respondents of Media and Opinion polls 110
Figure 6.3.9 Respondents on opinion polls as a fifth estate 111
Figure 6.3.10 Respondents on media endorsing political parties 112
Figure 6.3.11 Media and issues in elections 113
Figure 6.3.12 Respondents on Interactions between voters and 114
poltical parties
Figure 6.3.13 Respondents on effectiveness of Media 115
Figure 6.3.14 Respondents on Paid news 116
Figure 6.3.15 Respondents on Media and Rural-Urban divide 117
Figure 6.3.16 Respondents on biases in Media 118
Figure 6.3.17 Respondents on work pressure in Media 119
Figure 6.3.18 Respondents on Management pressure in Media 120
Figure 6.3.19 Respondents on Media Commercial Concern 121
Figure 6.3.20 Respondents on Media institutions 122
LIST OF TABLES
Table No. Table Title Page No.
Table 4.3.1 Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of 47

Loksabha General Election 2004
Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2004
Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2009
Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election 2002
Punjab Assembly Election 2002
Punjab Assembly Election 2012
Kerala Assembly Elections 2011
Karnataka Assembly Elections 2013
Bihar Assembly Election 2010
Table 4.3.14 Table : Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll 60
Results Of Gujrat Assembly Elections 2007
Gujrat Assembly Elections 2012

Tamilnadu Assembly Elections 2006
Tamilnadu Assembly Elections 2011
West Bengal Assembly Elections 2011
Uttarakhand Assembly Elections 2012
Himachal Pradesh Assembly Elections 2012
Madhya Pradesh Assembly Elections 2013
Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections 2013
Delhi Assebmly Elections 2013
Rajasthan Assembly Elections 2013
PREFACE
PREFACE
Since the inception of the human being in this beautiful world communication always
played an important role in the growth of human life. Explaining the importance of
communication is like explaining the importance of breathing. The medium of
communication has been varied at different era, ages and times. As we are living in the
21st century, the mode of communication is very much different what it was before. Not
a single part of the world today can progress without the better means of communication.
India is not different. The importance of mass media for our country has greater
importance as we are functioning as a democratic country. After we became democratic
country or before it, the mass media role was always important for geographical
boundary of India. But after independence, as we entered in the world of democracy, the
role of mass media and its responsibility was enhanced. Nobody can doubt about the
constructive role of ‘fourth estate’ of democracy in the Indian context. In all 16 Loksabha
General Elections and more than 350 State Assembly Elections media role was in the
direction of deepening the root of democracy in the country.
However the role of media has been transformed with changing times and changing mass
media. We have experience the gradual progress and changes of media and its effect, at
the time of Print and Radio, at the time of state owned television, at the time of satellite
television, at the time of 24x7 news channels and at the time of social media. Since the
round the clock television news channels came in the scene, the role and impact of the
media is more visible now. It will not incorrect to say that without the mass media it is
very tough for any political parties and leaders to connect with the electorate. In the
present thesis ‘Role of Indian Media: Covering General Elections’, the researcher has
focused on the role of media during the era of television news channels. How the Indian
media, especially news channels has covered the elections, the great events of democracy
after the emergence of television news channels.
ROLE OF INDIAN MEDIA : COVERING GENERAL ELECTIONS

PREFACE
Apart from studying the role of Indian Media, especially television media, during
elections, the focus is also on the two aspects of elections which came in light after the
emergence and rapid growth of television channels. Opinion polls (Pre-poll surveys and
Exit poll surveys) and Paid news are among two important aspects on which researcher
has focussed in this study in two separate chapters. The objective of the study is how
Indian media, especially in the era of television news media, effectively functioning in
the Indian democracy.
ROLE OF INDIAN MEDIA : COVERING GENERAL ELECTIONS

MASS MEDIA, DEMOCRACY AND
ELECTIONS
CHAPTER 1
MASS MEDIA, DEMOCRACY AND ELECTIONS
1.1 MASS MEDIA
Mass communication is actually a one-way-mode of communication in which media

communicates with the members of society and receives their appreciations and
suggestions from time to time. It refers to means of connecting people from different
parts of the globe by sharing information using technology. 1 The medium through which
mass communication occurs is called mass media. Basically the mass media are
diversified media technologies that are intended to reach a large audience by mass
communication. The technologies through which this communication takes place varies.
Broadcast media such as radio, recorded music, film and television transmit their
information electronically. Print media use a physical object such as a newspaper, book,
pamphlet or comics.
Janowitz defined the Mass communication as follow ―Mass communications comprise

the institutions and techniques by which, specialized groups employ technological
devices to disseminate symbolic content to large heterogenous and widely dispersed
audiences.‖2
1.2 MEDIA AND SOCIETY
From the primitive gong of the village town crier, the leaf lettering of anti-colonial
movements, the bold headlines of the national dailies, the crystal clear news footages of
the cable television networks, to the internet blogs, no one can seriously ignore the
impacts of today's mass media on society, politics and governance, especially in
developing democracies.
In any democratic society media plays a very significant role. In today‘s era the media is
all around us. From the shows we watch on TV, the music we listen to on the radio, to the
books, magazines, and newspapers we read each day. Without the media, people in
societies would be isolated, not only from the rest of the world, but from governments,
law-makers, and neighboring towns and cities. The flow of information is important for
ROLE OF INDIAN MEDIA : COVERING GENERAL ELECTIONS Page 1

CHAPTER 1
the development of communities and the media facilitates this. Without a wide array of
information, people‘s opinions and views would be limited and their impressions and
conclusions of the world around them stunted. In an age of multinational media
corporations we are constantly persuaded to believe that we live in a "global village" - a
single, undifferentiated information society. Undoubtedly the flow of information
through the media is greater and faster than it was, say, in the 1960s when the term
"global village" was coined - still more by comparison with the age before mass
broadcasting.
1.3 MEDIA AND DEMOCRACY
Any democracy is impossible without a free media. The role of media in the democratic
society can be understand with the popular saying of American founding father and third
president of the united states Thomas Jefferson. Jefferson was a spokesman for
democracy. On the Role of Media in the democratic society Thomas Jefferson had once
said that if he had to choose between a government without newspapers or newspapers
without a government, he would pick the latter.3 The popular saying of Thomas Jefferson
known as Jeffersonian declaration. The mass media constitute the backbone of
democracy. The media supplies the political information that voters base their decisions
on. They identify problems in our society and serve as a medium for deliberation. They
are also the watchdogs that we rely on for uncovering errors and wrongdoings by those
who have power. Democracy requires the active participation of citizens and the media
keep citizens engaged in the business of governance by informing, educating and
mobilising the public. The most important democratic functions that we can expect the
media to serve are listed in an often-cited article by Gurevitch and Blumler (1990). These
2 functions include surveillance of sociopolitical developments, identifying the most
relevant issues, providing a platform for debate across a diverse range of views, holding
officials to account for the way they exercise power, provide incentives for citizens to
learn, choose, and become involved in the political process, and resist efforts of forces
outside the media to subvert their independence. 4 It is the mass media that make the
exercise of freedom of expression a reality. Freedom of the press affords the public one
of the best means of discovering and forming an opinion of the ideas and attitudes of their

CHAPTER 1
political leaders. In particular, it gives politicians the opportunity to reflect and comment
on the preoccupations of public opinion; it thus enables everyone to participate in the free
political debate which is at the very core of the concept of a democratic society. It
informs the public about matters of public interest and act as a watchdog over
government.5 The mass media, which proclaimed as the fourth estate, a co-equal branch
of government that provides the check and balance without which no government can be
effective in any democratic country.
In India democracy took a giant step forward with the first general election held in 1951-
52 over a four-month period. These elections were the biggest experiment in democracy
anywhere in the world. The elections were held based on universal adult franchise, with
all those twenty-one years of age or older having the right to vote. There were over 173
million voters, most of them poor, illiterate, and rural, and having had no experience of
elections. The big question at the time was how would the people respond to this
opportunity.
Many were skeptical about such an electorate being able to exercise its right to vote in a
politically mature and responsible manner. Some said that democratic elections were not
suited to a caste-ridden, multi-religious, illiterate and backward society like India's and
that only a benevolent dictatorship could be effective politically in such a society. The
coming elections were described by some as 'a leap in the dark' and by others as 'fantastic'
and as 'an act of faith.'6
1.4 MEDIA AND ELECTIONS
The mass media are essential to the conduct of democratic elections. A free and fair
election is not only about casting a vote in proper conditions, but also about having
adequate information about parties, policies, candidates and the election process itself so
that voters can make an informed choice. A democratic election with no media freedom
would be a contradiction in terms.
The prime concern is the right of voters to full and accurate information. Parties and
candidates are entitled to use the media to get their messages across to the electorate. The
media play a more specific part in enabling full public participation in elections, not only

CHAPTER 1
by reporting on the performance of government, but also in a number of other ways such
as by educating the voters, by reporting on election campaign, by providing a platform
for the political parties, by allowing the parties to debate, by reporting results and
monitoring vote counting, by scrutinizing the electoral process itself in order to evaluate
its fairness, efficiency, and probity. In a world of mass communications, it is increasingly
the media that determine the political agenda, even in less technologically developed
corners of the globe.7
India would not be able to describe itself as the world‘s largest democracy without the
existence of an independent media and without free and fair elections. Ensuring free and
fair elections is not only the sole responsibility of the Election Commission of India but
also the different institution of democracy to ensure that elections process is held free and
fair. It is the duty of media to keep eye on elections as a watchdog of democracy.The
mass media in India often reflects the diversity and plurality of the country, especially
when general elections take place. The central role of the media in elections is a very
recent development. In many countries, free elections are themselves a new phenomenon.
For large parts of Asia and Africa that were once under colonial rule, free and sovereign
elections are a development of the second half of the twentieth century, while for those
countries in the former Communist bloc they are even more recent than that. Even the
countries of Western Europe and Latin America only fully democratized in the years
shortly before or after the Second World War with the extension of the franchise to
women. Europe, North America, and Latin America evolved a theory of the media as a
"Fourth Estate", offering a check on the activities of governments.
Before the rise of modern electronic media, political information was conveyed through
the two mechanisms of the print media and direct personal contact. In those days,
newspaper readership was higher than today, but this still excluded a very large
proportion of the population that was either too poor to afford a newspaper or that simply
could not read. Hence direct personal communication assumed great importance. This
would include public political meetings addressed by candidates or hustings, where the
different candidates would debate and be questioned. It would also include door-to-door
canvassing by the candidate or party activists, as well as leaflets and posters produced by

CHAPTER 1
the parties or candidates. But In industrialized countries with extensive electronic media,
these methods have declined dramatically in importance. Elsewhere, however, the
political meeting and personal contact with the candidates remains important. Even in
conditions of dire poverty, the media still have a role in communicating political
information. Even when rural communities do not have direct access to independent
media, the information generated by, say, the private press will still go into general
circulation and may reach the rural voters at some stage. So, although word of mouth
may be the direct source of political information, the media will contribute importantly to
the mass of information in circulation.
1.5 HISTORY OF MASS MEDIA IN INDIA
Indian mass media consists of several different types of communications: Newspapers,

television, radio, cinema, magazines, and internet-based websites. Indian media is active
since the late 18th century with print media started in 1780, radio broadcasting initiated
in 1927, and the screening of Auguste and Louis Lumière moving pictures in Bombay
initiated during the July of 1895—is among the oldest and largest media of the world. 8
The first newspaper Bengal Gazette was started by James Augustus Hicky in 1780. The
Gazette, a two-sheet newspaper, specialised in writing on the private lives of the Sahibs
of the Company. He dared even to mount scurrillious attacks on the Governor-General,
Warren Hastings' wife, which soon landed "the late printer to the honourable Company"
in trouble. Hicky was sentenced to 4 months jail term and Rs.500 fine, which did not
deter him. After a bitter attack on the Governor-General and the Chief Justice, Hicky was
sentenced to one year in prison and fined Rs.5,000, which finally drove him to penury.
These were the first tentative steps of journalism in India. The southern India got its first
newspaper as The Madras Courier in 1785 by Richard Johnson, a government printer. In
1878, The Hindu was founded, and played a vital role in promoting the cause of Indian
independence from the colonial yoke. Today this paper enjoys the highest circulation in
South India, and is among the top five nationally. Bombay was a late starter compare to
Calcutta (now Kolkata) and Madras (now Chennai). The Bombay Herald came into
existence in 1789. Significantly, a year later a paper called the Courier started carrying
advertisements in Gujarati.9

CHAPTER 1
The emergence of twenty-four hour television news channels in India started during the
last decade of 20th century. However the news on television was already on Doordarshan,
but it was not round the clock and another thing is that it was government owned. The
private television news channels changed the style of Journalism in India. Post-1990
satellite television in India has become transnational in nature. It coincided with the entry
of multinational companies in the Indian markets under the Government policy of
privatization. International satellite television was introduced in India by CNN through its
coverage of the Gulf War in 1991. In August 1991, Richard Li launched Star Plus, the
first satellite channel beamed the signal to Indian subcontinent. Subhash Chandra‘s Zee
TV appeared in October 1992. It is India‘s first privately owned Hindi channel to cater
the interest of Indian viewers. Doordarshan‘s earlier mandate to aid in the process of
social and economic development had clearly been diluted. Doordarshan had faced a stiff
competition in news and public affairs programming with international channels like
BBC and CNN. For televised news, the viewers had to watch Doordarshan and some
international news channels like BBC or CNN. In this race to provide more news, more
information, Zee Television jumped into the battlefield by launching the news channel
Zee News in 1995. This News and current affairs channel revolutionized the way news
was delivered to the viewers. The other round-the-clock news channel, the Murdoch-
owned Star TV beamed its exclusively 24-hour news channels, Star News in 1998. After
the huge success of news programme ‗Aaj Tak‘, TV Today group launched a 24-hour
Hindi news channel with the same name ‗Aaj Tak‘, in December 2000, which covers
India with insight, courage and plenty of local flavour. Within 11 months of its launch,
Aaj Tak emerged as India‘s number one news channel. The trend of 24 hours news
channel which started in 1995, still continued.10
In any society or democracy media needs freedom in its work. Indian media has been free
and Independent throughout the most of its history, even before establishment of Indian
empire by the Great Asoka, on the foundation of righteousness, openness, morality and
spirituality. Only the period of emergency (1975–1977), declared by Prime Minister
Indira Gandhi, was the brief period when India's media was faced with potential
government retribution.

CHAPTER 1
1.6 NEED AND IMPORTANCE OF THE STUDY
Elections are an important part of any democracy. It is very difficult to study how any
voter arrive at a decision in casting his or her vote for a party or a candidate, the vibrant
Indian democracy make it more difficult in comparison to western democracies. Many
factors influence the decision of voter‘s in democracy like India, where many diversities
influence the decision of voter‘s, like- caste, color, creed, religion, region, family,
personality of candidates, parties, mass media and so on and on. With the proliferation of
mass media, they have become very vital tool for politicians and political parties in
reaching out to a large masses, which was impossible till few years ago. Mass media over
the years have influenced the political process of societies in which citizen enjoy freedom
of speech and expression. What type of role should media play? Whether the media
should restrict themselves to the role of informing and education the society on issues
that are crucial to the people or set agenda for larger debate and deliberations, are issues
on which different people have different views. It is however is for sure that media have
become an inevitable part of the political process especially during elections. In the
present study it is proposed to analyze the patterns of influence, role and impact of mass
media during the election campaigns in the India after independence, especially in the era
of 24 hours news channel. With the new form of mass media which took place in last 20
years, many others aspects also connected with elections. How in the age of twenty- four
hours news channels, media is playing effective role in Indian democracy. How paid
news is threatning to our democracy and media. Apart from this, the study has focused on
the opinion poll surveys. Do surveys affect the opinion of voters? How poll surveys have
performed in recent years?
1.7 REVIEW LITERATURE
The influence of media on elections, political participation and voting behavior has been
studied in the United States, but in India it is still in pre-stage. In India, there have been
several studies on the nature and functions of the media (Fernandez, 2000; Johnson,
2001; Kluver et al., 2007; Prasad, 2006; Sonawalkar, 2001). In fact much of these studies
have focused on the role of the Indian media in the post liberalization period
(Fernandez, 2000; Johnson, 2001; and Sonawalkar, 2001). However, these studies mainly

CHAPTER 1
focus on the cultural impact of the media. For instance Fernandez (2000) in her article
―Nationalizing ‗the Global‘: Media Images, Cultural Politics and the Middle Class in
India‖ argues that the social as well as the cultural images emanating from the process of
economic liberalization in India is a result of the interaction between the global and the
national. Johnson (2001), on the other hand, focuses on the influence of television on
rural India. Sonawalkar (2001) looks at the imperialistic tendencies of Indian television
channels on South Asia from a cultural context. An overview of the Indian media
literature suggests that there has been very little research on the impact of the media
on political participation in general and voting behavior in particular.
The mass media scene becomes pretty alive during elections in India, especially with the
coming of satellite channels. Opinion polling has become a regular feature around the
election time, discussions based on poll results have also become popular in media.
However, serious empirical research in the field especially aimed at gauging the impact
of mass media on the voting behaviour of the electorate is still at a nascent stage in India.
Such research studies assume importance in a country like India- the largest democracy
with over 800 million voters.
Nonetheless some studies have been conducted by academics and media researcher in the
last few decades. Before going further it will be better to have some glimpses from these
studies and are reflected in the following paragraphs :
Indian media are generally criticized for their obsession with politics. M Shatruguna has
talked about a particular case of Andhra Pradesh, where according to him ―there had been
two elections and not one‖. Elections were held in Andhra Pradesh in two phases, on
May 20 and June 15, with 17 parties going to the polls in the first phase and 24 in the
second phase after the death of Rajiv Gandhi. The results showed that opposition to the
congress was clear with the party getting defeat in 14 out of 17 constituencies. Through a
splendid combination of political machinery and unashamed misuse of state machinery,
writes Shatruguna,‖ the ashes of the slain leader were cynically displayed all over the
state…of the 4 seats that went to polls in the second phase, the Congress-I bagged 21,
sweeping the whole of Rayalseema and Winning major chunks in Telangana‖.11

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From this case study one cannot say for sure whether it were the mass media which
helped changed the election outcome. However, there can‘t be denying the fact that
undercurrents could be felt. The live telecast of Rajiv Gandhi funeral, the camera
focusing on the conduct of the immediate family members, their grief-stricken faces, the
role of Priyanka in taking on the family mantle in consoling her mother surely left
impression on the minds of the watchers. Whether it got converted into votes cannot be
said for sure, for want of enough published empirical data available on the subject. In
retrospect, one can argue that after the death of Indira Gandhi in 1984, her son rode the
crest of sympathy and received an unprecedented mandate in the history of parliamentary
democracy in India. The mass media had extensively covered the event of her funeral.
Despite the riots, the killing of innocent Sikhs, the public opinion supported the party and
the family legacy. The party also made extensive use of mass media during election. How
is it that when the very same leader was slain and the party could argue that thanks to the
proliferation of mass media an average person is more informed than he was in the
eighties. With the availability of satellite channels, plurality of views is now available.
The other argument could be that no one from the family forward to take on the mantle of
the part. The lack of a charismatic leader could have been responsible for the lukewarm
response in some parts of the country. Yet another reason could be the split vote and the
erosion of traditional vote base of many parties. 12
G Palnithurai‘s study on ―voters reasoning of political participation‖ questions the

validity of the supposed role of mass media in elections. The research was conducted in
1991 with a sample of 525 respondents from rural areas in three voter constituencies. The
sample was designed to get a representation of various geographical areas, caste groups
and economic strata. Some of the findings make it an interesting study: Seventy-seven
percent voters evinced faith in democracy. Over 84 per cent had in the previous election.
About 91 per cent had already made up their mind about who they would vote for in
coming election. While 25 percent said that their decision would be based on the
candidate, over 64 per cent preferred party to candidate. Over 66 per cent said they
discussed politics at home. About 61 per cent said the decision to vote for a particular
candidate or party was same for all the voters in their families. In over 52 per cent cases,
it was the head of the family who decided who the family would vote for. An interesting

CHAPTER 1
insight that emerged from the qualitative survey, when the team visited the villages was
that for nearly 30 years, the practice followed was that the village committee would
decide as to who to vote for. The practice was given up from the late eighties, as the
youth protested this kind of decision making. Hence came the practice of decision
making within the families.13
Dr. Balwinder Singh‘s media content analysis of two mainstream newspapers viz. the
Hindustan times and Indian express for 47 days from 30 April-15 June, the last day of
withdrawals during the 1991 elections reflect the interest of media in politics. As both the
newspapers are in English and accessed by educated urbanites, one can infer that they
had a lot of material at their disposal to gain from. It is, however, another matter that the
average reading of newspapers does not go beyond 10 to 15 minutes.
J S Yadava in a study based on the analysis of data collected in a nation wide study of the
election campaign during the eighth parliamentary election held in December 1998 puts
forth the role of media in reinforcing the already held views. The theoretical basis of the
study was that the election campaign helps in reinforcing and mobilizing the opinions of
the electorate and not so much in converting them. He is of the view that during a period
of 18-24 months preceding the elections, the mass media serve to place the current issues
of politics on the agenda of citizens‘ discussions. Through the interplay of mass media
and interpersonal communication, the essence of major political issues get disseminated
widely among the electorate even among the illiterates and those living in remote areas.
As a result they form their impressions and opinions about leaders and parties. During the
campaign period contending parties consolidate such impressions as opinions about
selected political issues in the form of major themes. The campaign, according to him
heightens the interest of voters in public affairs. He contends that voters selectively
perceive media stimuli about their favourite parties and candidates. This implies that
effective campaigning although does not get totally accepted by the voters, it helps in
reinforcing the impression and opinions that already exist in the minds of the voters. 14
P V Sharda in her study of the rural audience found that although, the rural voters have
realized the importance of such broadcasts, their final decision as to whom to vote is not

CHAPTER 1
entirely based on the media stimuli. According to her, ―villagers watch these programme
to know what is being said by different political parties.‖
In her another study relating to the impact of radio and television, Sharda has studied the
effectiveness of the two powerful media from a politician‘s perspective. She conducted
qualitative research based of in-depth interviews with 100 politicians from a cross section
of political parties who were elected to the state assembly or the parliament. As many as
75 percent were not satisfied with the limited exposure allowed to them to air their
party‘s point of view or agenda. Over 74 per cent suggested once in a week exposure
around the election time and 17 per cent twice a week. An interesting suggestion came
from some elected representatives to make it a regular feature and restricted to election
times. Radio and television were not considered important campaigning tools by a
majority of politician.15
The issue that has caught the attention of social scientists and serious researchers in the
Indian contest is the increasing proliferation of the electronic media and their impact on
gullible mind of millions of voters who are illiterate but at the same time overawed by the
powerful media with three dimension effect and larger than life projection of
personalities.
There is an increasing debate on the subject of the alleged partisan role of the media in
matters of national and public interest. Media role during elections has come under closer
scrutiny. Thomas Patterson, a renowned profession of political science argues that press‘s
restless search for the riveting story generally work against its intention to provide voters
with a reliable picture of these campaign. ―The press‖, write Patterson, ― is in the news
business, not the business of politics, and because of this, its norms and imperatives are
not those required for the effective organization of electoral coalitions and debate.
Journalists values and political values are at odds with each other.‖ The media he argues
has many strengths but certainly not the capability of looking at the world as a whole and
not in small pieces.16
Taberez Ahmed Neyazi in his research has focused on how Hindi media played an
important role in Indian democracy. An overview of the literature on the Indian news

CHAPTER 1
media shows that the English media, which dominated the national media market from
independence till the late 1990s, is no longer the dominant market player and vernacular
media pose a serious challenge to the dominance and authority of English media in the
public sphere. Neyazi raised few questions through his research that what are the
implications of massive growth of Hindi news media for Indian democracy? Has it led to
the empowerment of the marginalized sections of the society or has it created
fragmentation in the public sphere? Is there a relationship between the deepening of
Indian democracy and the rise of Hindi media? Neyazi found that with the decline of the
congress system after the 1967 general elections, there was a parallel rise of a regional
consciousness in which the regional and vernacular press played an important role. One
cannot ignore the power of vernacular press when looking at their history as they aligned
with nationalists forces to fight against the British during the colonial period, the
vernacular realm and the activities carried out there provided an important shape to the
development of nationalism subsequently. The regional language press in the south India
had already played a signiﬁcant role in creating a regional awareness and aligning with
regional political parties, and this contributed to the challenge to the dominance of the
national political party, the congress in the 1960s and 1970s. This contribution by Hindi
newspapers came only in the 1980s with the rise of many important non-congress
political leaders in north India. Hindi newspapers provided them a platform for the
emerging political stalwarts of North India to raise their voice in the public arena. In his
conclusion Neyazi found that the expansion of Hindi newspapers and the
vernacularization of the public sphere have significantly influenced politics and society at
the local level. Growing newspapers circulation in North India has been accompanied by
increasing mobilization of marginalized groups, a phenomenon witnessed in South India
in the 1960s. Effective political participation requires informed citizens. The survival of
electoral democracy in India is well established. Elections held every five years are but
one aspect of democracy. The day to day monitoring of the political process by the media
is crucial to ensuring checks and balances in the political system and deepening of the
process of democratization. The media revolution spearheaded by the vernacular media
has brought marginalized groups into the public arena, and posed serious challenges to

CHAPTER 1
the dominance of national political elites, who now cannot afford to ignore issues
emanating from the regional public arena. 17
Sevanti Ninan in her study found that Hindi newspapers catering to local needs are
creating new audiences and "a different kind of public sphere" in towns and districts in
the Hindi belt. In her book, "Headlines from the Heartland: Reinventing the Hindi Public
Sphere", Ninan said that in the 1990s, a "newspaper revolution began blowing across
northern and central India". She said that quality of journalism in this age of booming
media gets anywhere near the kind of attention it deserves. But television localization has
been getting some attention.18 Over the years, there have been numerous debates leading
to concern about the increasing role and influence of media, which, it is alleged, have
changed the very fabric of politics. Media as an institution has progressed by leaps and
bounds in a much shorter time frame.
First time in World War-I,when the government news management and power of
propaganda through the mass media came to be realised. The apparent success of
propaganda led to a widespread success by social scientists of the ―hypodermic needle‖
theory of the effects of the media. This theory assumed that everyone was exposed to the
media message equally. Everyone interpreted them in the same general way and everyone
was affected uniformly by the. This, a cleverly designed message could produce a more
or less uniform response from everyone in the population. The theory was not based on
empirical research however it reflected social and psychological theories of the day. The
theory also assumed that the individual in the modern industry society prone to be
manipulated was irrational and governed by unreasonable passion trails that make
themselves a threat to democracy.19
Harwood I Childs in his thesis on public opinion strongly advocates preserving public
opinion, because many forces seen to be at work curtailing and undermining its role .
These, according to Childs, include the tremendous growth in executive power, the
growing complexity and speed of social changes, emergence of pressure groups, higher
stakes among political parties, mass media and other channels.20

CHAPTER 1
The relationship between media campaigning and voting behavior has been the main
focus of research in the field of political communication of the various models and
theories. Thomas Harrop's model has been widely discussed and accepted. According to
Thomas Harrop's thesis, media can influence the voting behaviour in four situations:
1. when party loyalties are weak
2. there are new subjects to cover
3. coverage is credible
4. people rarely discuss politics
Television according to his has strengthened the credibility of the media and supplanted
conversation as a major channel of political communication.21
McCombs et al, speak about the following sequence to the effects of the exposure to
communication viz; awareness, information-attitudes-behavior. In reports both prior to
and during political campaigns, the news media to a considerable degree identify
important issues. Simply put, the news media set the agenda for the campaigns. This line
of thinking suggests that media mentally orients and organises the world for their
audience.22
Walter Lippman questioned the purity and adequacy of mass media as sources of
information in the early part of this century. In his classic study, ―newspapers‖, he felt
that journalist painted just a ―flashlight‖ rather than a mirror at the world. Hence, the
audience did not get a complete image of the political scene. They got a highly selective
glimpses, instead. Lippmann explained why the media could not possibly perform the
functions of public enlightenment that democratic theory required. The media persons, he
argued could not tell the truth objectively because truth was subjective and entailed more
probing investigations and analysis that a busy pace of news products could allow-
source.23

CHAPTER 1
A very interesting insight is offered by Altheide et al, when they say that in a media
world, organized journalism is dead. The media men are post journalist for two reasons.
First, journalist practices techniques and approaches are increasingly geared to media
formats rather than merely directing their craft of topic. Secondly, the topics,
organizations and issues that journalists report about are themselves products of media
journalists format and criteria.24
Evidence of analysing the effects Denis Mc quail argues that much of what has been
written about the effects or effectiveness of the media either derives from research on
campaigns or involves predictions about hypothetical campaign situations which include
political and election campaign, attempts at public information, advertising, public
service information, some forms of education-all of which have definite quantifiable
objectives to achieve.
In democratic societies, the relationship between media organizations is characterized

primarily by competition to maximize audience and to be first within the news. Media in
fact, enjoy so much clout in democratic societies that they tent to believe, they can make
or mar governments. Some media deliberately take on activist role, whether it is fair, is a
debatable point.

CHAPTER 1
REFERENCES
1. Jammicutecoco (September,2011). “The Evolution of Mass Media,” pp. 1

2. Denis McQuail. McQuail's Mass Communication Theory, pp.57
3. http://www.slideshare.net/iDebate/role-of-the-media-in-the-democratic-society
4. http://www.aibd.org.my/node/1219
5. Table of Contents "Media and Elections" HYPERLINK "http://aceproject.org/ace-

en/topics/me/me20"PRIVATE "TYPE=PICT; ALT=Left
6. http://indiansaga.com/history/postindependence/elections.htm
7. "Media and Elections" HYPERLI NK "http://aceproject.org/ace-

en/topics/me/me20"PRIVATE "TYPE=PICT;ALT=Left
8. http://indiacitypages.com/news-media/10040
10. http://EzineArticles.com/83168
11. M Shatruguna, EPW, volume-xxvi, no-25, june 22, 1991, p-1511.
12. Ibid.
13. Dr. G. Palanithurai, ‖voters‘ reasoning of political participation‖, monthly public

opinion surveys, 443, xxxvii, no.11, august 1992
14. J S Yadav,‖campaign and voters‘ choice-1984 parliamentary election‖ in

communication, vol xx no.1, January 1985.
15. P V Sharda, Impact of Television on the political awareness of the rural masses.
Sharda, P.V. 1989. ―Impact of Television on Rural Areas‖, Communicator, Vol. 25, No.
4 p. 2.
16. Thomas Patterson, out of order, (new York:Alfred a knof, 1993).

CHAPTER 1
17. Economic and political weekly, Vol - XLVI No. 10, March 05, 2011 | politics after
vernacularisation: hindi media and Indian democracy by Taberez Ahmed Neyazi.
18. Sevanti Ninan, Headlines from the heartland (2007)
19. Bernard Berlson, Paul F Lazarsfeld and William N. Mc Phee, Voting: a study of
opinion formation in a presidential campaign (Chicago university of Chicago press,1954)
p.234 for ―hypodermic effect‖.
20.Harwood I child, public opinion nature, formation and role (Princeton, New
Jersey,1965)
21. Martin Harrop, ― voting and the elctorate‖ in development of British Politics,henry
Drucker (London, mac millan, 1983)
22. Mccombs E. Maxwell and Donald L Shaw, ― the agenda setting function of the
press,‖ in David Graber‘s ed, Media power in politics.(New Delhi: Mcmilan 1994)
23. Walter Lippmann, public opinion (first printed in 1922, reprint, newyork: free press,
1965)
24. Davind l. Altheide and Robert Shaw, media worlds in the post journalism era
pp.—1-10

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
CHAPTER 2
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
To achieve the objectives and check the hypothesis of the research, the researcher has
planned the research design. The research in this thesis consists of both qualitative and
quantitative analysis and hence a mixed method research. In the present study it is
proposed to analyze the patterns of influence, role and impact of mass media during the
election campaigns in the India after independence and especially in the era of 24 hours
news channel. The Present Study was conducted to analyze the role of Indian Media in
Covering General Elections. The Objectives were related to various aspects of the topic.
2.1 OBJECTIVES
1. To understand the role of Media during elections in Indian Context.
2. To understand the special Characteristics of Electronic Media, especially

television news channels, during their involvement in Election.
3. To know the effectiveness of forecasting of Media in Pre and Post election

results.
4. To Identify factors influencing media's role during elections.
5. To understand the utility and significance of Media Strengthening Democratic

institutions in India with Special reference to Election.
6. To understand the perception of Media Professionals regarding role of Media.
2.2 HYPOTHESES
a. Mass media play an active role during elections.
b. Mass media, especially television news channels, has usurped the political parties
traditional role of reaching out to the electorate.
c. Exit polls are failed to give right predictions in elections.

CHAPTER 2
d. Pre-post poll and exit poll surveys need major changes in their techniques to
prove themselves right in Indian context.
e. Paid news is a big threat to the free, fair and level playing elections
The researcher had underscore 5 hypotheses for this study. First one is Mass media
play an active role during elections. It is noted that during the time of Independence
and first General election the print media dominance can be visible in elections also.
And the trend was same till the few years back when the 24 hours news channels
came in the scene. However in all time media was effective in the scene but the role
of mass media changed in the era of television media, electronic media and social
media. During the time of print the candidates had to focus on person to person
contact in the run-up to the elections, the political rallies were planned for the leaders
of the political parties to reach the voters. All these campaigning style is still exist
during the election now in the era of mass media and social media, but now mass
media has become important tools for the political parties and candidates to reach
new voters.
The study is based on empirical research involving following process to come to

Conclusion;
2.3 DATA COLLECTION
In this study researcher has used the combination of Primary and Secondary data to
explore the various objectives and test the hypothesis formulated. The primary data
was collected from respondents through questionnaire and interview with the
journalists who are active in the field of television news channels. The questionnaire
content of the survey containing 20 Close ended questions. For primary data
‘Random Sampling Method’ was used and questionnaire was given to 400 media
professionals randomly from electronic and print. The questionnaire of interview was
Semi-structural type and on the spot exploratory questions. The secondary data were
collected from various books, newspaper records and websites.

CHAPTER 2
2.4 DATA ANALYSIS
Keeping the objectives and hypotheses of this thesis the research consists of
qualitative and quantitative analysis of the primary and secondary data. Once filled up
questionnaire were received and interview conducted. The researcher here also
analysed the exit polls results of General elections(Loksabha and Assembly). Once
tabulation was done the data was subjected to various analysis to draw conclusions.
The questionnaire and interview were subject to content analysis and important
themes were discussed as results.

DEMOCRACY AND INDIAN
ELECTIONS: THE EXPERIENCE
OF MORE THAN SIX DECADES
CHAPTER 3
DEMOCRACY AND INDIAN ELECTIONS: THE EXPERIENCE OF

MORE THAN SIX DECADES
India‟s world largest democracy has been successfully conducting elections all through
the last 67 years of its attaining independence. The Indian democracy is generally
referred to as the fledging democracy, the political systems in India has reflected rare
resilience despite a plethora of problems compounded by poverty, illiteracy and
deprivation of a large mass of its populace.
According to Norman D. Palmer, since most of the people in India not only did not have
any experience in the electoral process but were also illiterate, at the time of
independence, and in other respects seemingly unprepared to play a responsible role as
free citizens in a democratic society, the decision of the constituent assembly and the
government of India to give every adult Indian male and female the privilege of the
franchisee under the system of universal a direct suffrage, was as has been noted, a truly
momentous one.1
The democracy of India has been a subject matter of much concern and research.
Democracy reflects the voice of a nation. And in any democracy elections and the
process that govern them infact hold the key to the success of democratic institutions or
their downfall.
J. Schumpeter, best known for advocating a procedural definition of democracy, opined

thus:” the democratic method is that institutional arrangement for arriving at political
decisions in which individuals acquire the power to decide by means of a competitive
struggle for the people‟s vote”. New definition of democracy reverses the definition of
classical theory in which “each citizen has a rational opinion about every issue. Each
citizen votes for a representative to carry out his opinion. Thus, selecting a representative
is "secondary."2
The emphasis on importance of elections can also be found in the so-called traditional
theories of democracy which had been formulated in the late eighteenth and nineteenth

CHAPTER 3
century. Political scientist, B. Holden in the 1970s divided the traditional democratic
theory into two types- the liberal democratic theory and radical democratic theory. 3
According to Holden, John Locke, is seen as the founding father of the traditional
democratic theory. In liberal democratic theory, people are given a negative role. This
involves the people in passively choosing between options presented to them while in the
radical democratic theory, the people are given a positive role. The people actually
initiate the policies. This involve the belief that the representatives are closely controlled
by their electors. Some important representatives of the liberal theory are Edmund Burke
and John Stuart Mill. J. J. Rousseau, Jeremy Bentham and James Mill represent the
radical theory.4
Some political scientists speak of the pluralist theory, in strict pluralist theory the
importance of elections is downgraded and not seen as embodying the democratic
process. Although elections may still be regarded as a necessary condition for the
existence of the democratic process, the will of people is manifested in the inter-election
pressure-group process.5
If you go through the history of democratization in former colonial states, it has been
inconsistent and erratic. India has been an exception. In comparison with the experience
of Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, democracy in India has proved to be resilient.
This despite the fact that the preconditions which western scholars often associated with
democracy- homogeneous population, and industrial economy, high level of education
and shared civic culture-were absent in the India of the 1950s.6
India's first General Election was among other things, an act of faith. A newly
independent country chose to move straight into universal adult suffrage, rather than- as
had been the case in the west-at first reserve the right to vote to men of property, with the
working class and women exluded from the franchise until much later. India became free
in August 1947, and two years later set up an Election Commission. In March,1950
Sukumar Sen was appointed Chief Election Commissioner. It is a pity we know so little
about Sukumar Sen. He left no memoirs and few papers either. 7 For no official of
state,certainly no Indian official, has ever had such a stupendous task placed in front of

CHAPTER 3
him. Consider first of all, the size of the electorate, 176 million Indians aged 21 or more,
of whom 85% could not read or write. Each one had to be identified, named and
registered. The registration of voters was merely the first step, For how did one design
party symbols,ballot papers and ballot boxes for a mostly unlettered electorate. Then,
sites for polling stations had to be identified and honest and efficient polling officers
recruited. Moreover concurrent with the general election would be elections to the state
assemblies. Working with Sukumar Sen in this regard were the election commission of
the different provinces, also usually ICS Men. 8
The polls were scheduled for the first months of 1952, although some outlying districts
would vote earlier. An American observer justly wrote that the mechanics of the election
'present a problem of collossal proportions'. some numbers will help us understand the
scale of Sen's enterprise. At stake were 4500 seats about 500 for parliament, the rest for
the provincial assemblies. 224000 polling booths were constructed and eqipped with 2
million steel ballot boxes, to make which 82,00 ton of steel were consumed, 16500 clerks
were appointed on six-month contracts to type and collate the electoral roll by
constituecy. About 3,80,000 reams of papers were used for printing the rolls; 56,000
presiding officers were chosen to supervise the voting, these aided by another 2,80,000
helpers; 2,24000 policemen were put on duty to guard against violence and
intimidation..9 The scene and facts from the First General Election to the 16th Loksabha
General election have changed much more. But the grand democratic experiment of India
in 1947 has given birth to a highly politically conscious society, which is pre-requisite for
the success of any democracy. First the voters turnout has increased and the right to vote
has become a reality. The first three Lok Sabha elections witnessed a low percentage of
voters turnout but from 1967, the voter‟s increased from 50 to 60 per cent and 65 per
cent. Similarly, the voter‟s turnout for the state assembly or Panchayati Raj elections has
many a time been 60 and 75 per cent. Compared to many western democracies, India‟s
voter‟s participation in the elections is very high. 10 In General elections 2014 the voter
turnout recorded all time high in the history of Indian Loksabha elections. The vote
percentage was more than 66 percent. The traditional low turnout states also recorded
their best in this election.

CHAPTER 3
Table 6.0.1 : Voter Turonout Trend In Loksabha Elections11
Source---http://eci.nic.in/eci_main1/GE2014/line.htm
The increase in the voter turnout is not only visible in Loksabha general elections, in
Assembly Elections of states also the record voter turnout visible in last five years.
Thanks to the initiative taken by Election Commission of India. Not only the increase in
voter‟s participation is a quantitative phenomenon, it has great qualitative significance.
The Indian voter has exercised his right to vote by rewarding or punishing political
parties, leaders or groups on the basis of their performance or otherwise. India has
witnessed at least two such occasion when the voter was very harsh on some leaders and
parties and wanted to teach them a lesson. Mrs. Indira Gandhi was punished in 1977
because of her emergency regime and the BJP was punished in 1993 state assembly
elections of UP,MP And HP for demolishing the Babri mosque and violating the secular
spirit of Indian democracy.12 During the last 65 years, India has held 16 elections for Lok
Sabha and more than 350 elections for the state assemblies. Except during the phase of
emergency(1975-77) the Indian voters, political parties and press have been active
participants in the democratic process of India. In this chapter will also come to the dark
era of our democracy when emergency was imposed but before this I would like to focus
on the fabrics of Indian democracy, which helped democracy a success in our country.

CHAPTER 3
3.1 RIGHT TO ELECT REPRESENTATIVES THROUGH ELECTIONS
India is a constitutional democracy with a parliamentary system of government, and at

the heart of the system is a commitment to hold regular, free and fair elections. These
elections determine the composition of the government, the membership of the two
houses of parliament, the state and union territory legislative assemblies, and the
Presidency and vice-presidency. Elections are conducted according to the constitutional
provisions, supplemented by laws made by Parliament. The democratic system in India is
based on the principle of universal adult suffrage; that any citizen over the age of 18 can
vote in an election (before 1989 the age limit was 21). The right to vote is irrespective of
caste, creed, religion or gender. Those who are deemed unsound of mind, and people
convicted of certain criminal offences are not allowed to vote. In the history of more than
65 years of its grand experiment of state and nation building on the basis of participatory
democracy, India is the only country which began its democratic journey on the basis of
universal adult franchise. It requires to be mentioned that universal adult franchise in all
the western democratic countries are a post-World War-2 phenomenon. Every western
country started its democratic journey with limited right of vote and every section of
society struggled very hard to get the right to vote in Europe and North America. 13 The
country of around 120 crore people have crossed the number of 77 crore voters at the
time of 3rd national voters day.
As India enjoys elections and the country stand out as not only the largest but a
triumphant example of democracy. In 65 years since the first elections, there have been
16 general elections and over 350 state contests. Many countries can only change
government by coups or revolutions. But in India, both at the state level and at the centre,
the governments are changed or confirmed by the people as a whole. The Constitution of
India has vested in the Election Commission of India the superintendence, direction and
control of the entire process for conduct of elections to Parliament and Legislature of
every State and to the offices of President and Vice-President of India. It is a permanent
Constitutional Body and was established in accordance with the Constitution on 25th
January 1950. Originally the commission had only a Chief Election Commissioner. It
currently consists of Chief Election Commissioner and two Election Commissioners. For

CHAPTER 3
the first time two additional Commissioners were appointed on 16th October 1989 but
they had a very short tenure till 1st January 1990. Later, on 1st October 1993 two
additional Election Commissioners were appointed. The concept of multi-member
Commission has been in operation since then, with decision making power by majority
vote.15
The Commission is committed to the conduct of free, fair and peaceful elections every
time; it takes all possible steps to ensure that the electorate participates in the electoral
process freely and fearlessly. One election to another, there are innovations in order to
make sure that the hard earned credibility and the efficient conduct of world‟s largest
elections acquires further glory. Rudolph and Rudolph note that the election commission
has a key position at the heart of new regulatory centrism of the Indian state, as an
institution (alongside the presidency and the supreme court) which act as an enforcer of
„rules that safeguarded the democratic legitimacy of the political system‟. 16
The functions of the election commission, as set out in Article 324(1) were remarkably
broad. The core duties of the Election Commission can be broken down into a number of
separate undertakings:
-the delimitation of constituencies,
-the drawing up of electoral rolls,
-the supervision of the nomination of candidates,
-the administration of the electoral process,
-the surveillance of the probity of electoral conduct.17
The Election Commission has an important constitutional role in maintaining the

legitimacy of the democratic process which it has, to a large extent, performed
successfully.

CHAPTER 3
3.2 THE MULTI-PARTY SYSTEM IN INDIAN DEMOCRACY
The political parties have played a decisive role in the process of democratization in
India. It is hard to conceive of India‟s democratic system and its success without the
crucial role played by political parties. Political parties were significant institutions even
before Independence. After Independence, they assumed a new importance. On the one
hand, they provide the linkage between institutions and constituencies within the polity,
and on the other, they provide the crucial connection between the political process and
policymakers, and bring to the forefront issues affecting the interests of social groups and
the public at large. Without political parties the democratic system would not have
worked. Parties are in short the agencies and mechanisms through which power is
organized and exercised in a democracy. The most striking feature of India‟s party
politics is that it does not fit neatly into any of the theories of liberal democratic politics
or the conventional categories of party systems known in the west. Political parties in
India do not correspond to European or American party process.18 Rajni Kothari analysed
the Indian party system from the comparative perspective of the distinction between one,
two, and multi party systems. He argued that the term one party dominance expressed
India‟s party system more accurately than the term one party system, which more
precisely described the authoritarian type of party system.
Unlike in several other under-developed nations, instead of the evolution of a national

front, the split of the Indian parties seem to have occurred after independence.This gives
a special character to the Indian party system.19 Our country has selected a constitutional
system which is very close to that of the western nations like U.K., USA, Canada, etc. but
it has failed to develop a party system, similar to theirs. When we try to examine this
question we see that while the constitution of India is an essentially improved product,
drawn from the west, it has undergone a concoction in the midst of a non-western
political; process and a social and political tradition which is essentially authoritarian.
That is why the parliamentary democracy in India is less a system of great parties
fighting for the popular vote and legislative control, than a one party system, in which the
one party modifies its policies according to the pressures exerted upon it, by articulate

CHAPTER 3
public opinion and by relatively small groups of organized opposition in intermittent

conflict with it and with each other. 20
The development of the Indian party system after independence revolves around four
major unsolved questions related to its federal character. These are :
1. How to consolidate the national unity and make the best use of independence for the
nation‟s all round development ;
2. How to achieve a proper representation of sectional interests under the demand of a

powerful centre for the nations defence;
3. How to get proper assistance from outside and thus develop the most beneficial
relationship with all, or at least with the best helpers; and
4. How to get the best co-relationship between the state and the central policies,
requirements and ambitions.21
The first four General Elections to the Loksabha, coincided with elections to all the state
assemblies. In the first three election congress party won an over two-thirds majority of
seats in the Loksabha and also won a majority of seats in nearly all state assembly
elections from 1952-62. The multiplicity is itself, in part, consequence of the nature of
the congress dominance. The congress skill in moving in such a manner as always to
occupy the central area leaves only a number of diverse peripheral positions for others.
The positions are, by definition, so to speak, difficult to combine from the circumference
point to another. Thus the left and the right opposition groups demonstrate more
commonness with the congress than with each other. In India, we have the splinter left
parties like those in the USA, but apart from them, we have the rightists and communal
parties also.22 The success of a large number of independents at the general elections
reflects some special characteristics of our party system. It reflects the immaturity of our
party system
It seems justifies to say that “ India represent a social case” in regard to the development
of the modern party system. But inspite of this fact, “ there is a close parallel between

CHAPTER 3
england and india;” besides, there is a party system in India which rests substatially upon
the ovewhelming superiority of one party and its leadership.23
However, Rajni Kothari see Indian party system as one party dominance system. But the
scene is changing now. After Loksabha elections 2014 the dominant party got only 44
seats BJP won more than 280. Is the dominance of one party in the Indian political
system transforming into two party dominance system. It is also noted that after the 2014
Loksabha General elections the importance of other parties or we can say regional parties
are decreasing. It will be premature to reach on any conclusion on the basis of only one
election. But it will be interesting to see that in coming years the Indian political system
takes what shape.
3.3 REGIONAL PARTIES AND COALITION POLITICS
The Congress party has been the most important political institution in India‟s modern
political history. Congress reaped the rewards of its role during the anti-colonial
movement against the British. Politics in India from 1947 to 1967 is usually characterized
as „the Congress System‟. The congress party ran governments at the centre as well as in
the state. But the post-1967 period saw a very important de-linking of parliamentary and
state assembly elections after 1971. It also saw the emergence of anti-congress alliances,
then of a principal opposition party to the congress in state after state, in most state
representing a consolidation of the non-congress space at the state level. A consolidation
of the non- congress opposition, state by state, broadly in tandem with such consolidation
in state assembly elections, took place over the period, and even led to the displacement
of the congress as one of the two leading parties or coalitions. This bipolar consolidation
was the key feature and driving force of the fragmentation of the national party system.
This trend started the era of coalition politics in India. In Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan,
Himachal Pradesh, and the Union territory of Delhi, the movement towards a two party
system began as early as 1967 with the consolidation of the non-congress vote behind the
BJS, the ancestor of the BJP. This system has remained stable to date. 24 In three other
states, Kerala, West Bengal and Tripura, a bipolar, congress versus Left, two-alliance
system emerged. Here the Congress or a Congress led alliance of state based minor

CHAPTER 3
parties contested against a left front coalition, the two coalitions alternation in power. 25 –
ibid parties and party politics in india edited by zoya hasan-122…In five other states,
Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir, Andhra Pradesh, Assam and Goa, a Congress-regional two-
party system came into being over 1967-89, changing in the 1990s with the rise of the
BJP in all these states, after an alliance with the regional party. In one major state, Tamil
Nadu, the process began in 1967, and led to the elimination of the congress from the top
two positions. It became an essentially bipolar contest between the two leading parties,
the DMK and AIADMK , with one of the two being allied to the Congress for
parliamentary and state assembly elections. In this arrangement, which was stable from
1977 to 1996, the congress was given the lion‟s share of seats in parliamentary election in
exchange for the regional ally receiving the lion‟s share of state assembly seats. Since
1996, the regional parties have been contesting the majority of Lok Sabha seats too,
giving a few to their congress or bjp allies. In the north-eastern Rim states of Mizoram,
Meghalaya, Nagaland, and Manipur, and in Sikkim, an unstable two party or two-alliance
contest prevailed between congress and a variety of regional parties. The congress
retained preponderance until 1989 in seven major states, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Haryana,
Gujrat, Maharastra, Karnataka and Orissa, where no alternative party or alliance
consolidate itself as a successful challenger for parliamentary elections,although a broad
front anti congress alliance, if put together, could have challenged the congress, as
happened in 1967 and 1977.26
At central level until the late 1980s, it was taken for granted that national parties would
govern India. Regional and state based parties did, of course, contest elections, but their
role was insignificant. In 1952, about 50 parties contested elections, while the number
had gone up to 342 in 2009. Since the fragmentation of the party system that set in after
the decline of one-party dominance and the coming to power of a non-congress coalition
government more and more parties have been formed with the largest number in last
elections- over a hundred new parties formed between 2004 to 2009. 27 While there has
been no actual decline in the number of national parties from 1957, the number of Indians
who vote them has come down. Until 1996 the total number of seats won by regional
parties did not change much. Their numbers varied between a low of 31(1957) and a high

CHAPTER 3
of 75(1984). The major change occurred in 1996 when the number of seats won by them
went up to 127, in 1999 to 158 and in 2004 159. The increase has taken place at the
expense of national parties, especially the BJP and the Congress, which had just over 320
seats between them in 2009.28 Six elections from 1991 to 2009, no single party or
coalition got absolute majority. However the 2009 elections resulted in a near majority
for the congress-led UPA which won 262 seats. In the first five national elections from
1952 to 1971, India had a one party dominant system in which the Congress party
received a plurality of votes averaging more than 40 per cent, while the second largest
party could win only ten percent of the vote. In the 1989, 1991, 1996, 1998 and 1999
elections, the congress majority well short of the vote share needed for a seat majority.
These elections saw the vote share of the second party or alliances go up, thereby making
the system more pluralistic and copetetive. 29 But the scene changed in 2014 General
Elections, after 30 years any party won simple majority on its own.
New opposition parties and ideologies began to take centrestage from the late 1980s.
This period saw the emergence of the BJP as a major force in Indian politics. It soon
overshadowed the Congress as the largest party in the 1996, 1998 and 1999 elections and
got majority on its own in 2014. At no point before 1989 had the BJP received even one-
tenth of the national vote. It emerged for the first time as the single largest party in 1996;
its vote share increased to 20.3 per cent. The BJP-led government under A.B. Vajpayee
lasted only 13 days. In 1998, the BJP-led alliance secured 253 of the 543 seats and in
1999, the NDA, a coalition of 24 parties led by the BJP, won 304 seats. The NDA lost
control of the government in the elections of April-May 2004, and was defeated by the
UPA, led by the congress. The BJP‟s vote share dipped from 22.2 per cent in 2004 to
18.8 per cent in 2009. The NDA vote share came down to 24.1 per cent in 2009. But in
2014 General Election BJP Vote share increase from 18 percent to 31 percent and party
got majority and the NDA alliance crossed the 300 mark.
The vote share of left parties has varied from 7 in 1957 to below 5 per cent in 2014. The
2004 parliamentary election represented a high point for the left, as it surpassed its own
previous record of 56 seats in 1991. The Left bloc had 61 MPs and the overall vote share
for the left was 8.3 per cent, compared to less than 5 per cent in 2014. The election of

CHAPTER 3
2014 delivered a severe blow to the Left parties. The CPM suffered its worst defeat since
its inception after the split in the united CPI in 1964. Its seat share plummeted to 9. Most
of the Left MPs are drawn from Kerala and 2 each from West Bengal and Tripura. This
underlines the limits of the Left‟s electoral support, which has been unable to grow
beyond West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura, despite their resolve and attempts to do so.
Among political parties, the BJP is a atypical. It is not a denominational party, but it
promotes Hindu interests. The BJP can be better defined as an ethnic party, the promoter
of a Hindu ethnicity and nationalism defined along religious lines, which is something
much narrower than a broad, encompassing, multi-ethnic Indian nationalism. The BJP
came to form state governments on its own for the first time ever in 1990, it formed the
government on its own in MP and HP, and formed coalition government with the JD in
Rajasthan and Gujrat. The BJP had arrived as a state-level political force, where as earlier
it had essentially been a sub-state force, thereby contributing to national party system
fragmentation. Most states remained or became bipolar in the 1989-2006 period, except
notably UP. However, in a number of apparently bipolar or two-party states we find the
presence of a significant, often growing, third party that has a vote share in double digits,
but is not yet large enough to win a significant number of seats. It is obviously cutting
into the potential vote share of one or both the two main parties or alliances in a way that
makes it a threat to either or both of the two main parties as well as makes it attractive as
a potential ally of either one of them in order to defeat the other. Political Scientist Zoya
Hasan has give broadly seven explanations for the fragmentation of the Congress-
dominated national party system over the decades, none of excludes the others.
The first explanation is centered on the growing politicization of social cleavages along
regional lines since the late 1960s, due to the increasing centralization of the Congress
party and Congress governments, and latter‟s insensitivity to regional concern about
language, cultural identity, political autonomy, and economic development. This is
understood to have led to the rise and/or further consolidation of regional parties such as
the DMK and its offshoots, Akali Dal, NC, AGP, and small parties in the Northeastern
Rim states.30

CHAPTER 3
The second explanation highlights the electoral-systemic feature of delinking between

parliamentary and state assembly elections since 1971. This probably facilitated the pre-
electoral alliances and post-electoral coalition of non-Congress forces for national
elections such as in 1977 and 1989, and of non-BJP forces in 1996, since doing so
became easier without compromising their fundamental interests at the state level where
their basic social constituencies and power bases lay.31
The third explanation emphasizes the growth in political consciousness and assertion of
newly prosperous or newly mobilized sections of the electorate, primaritly intermediate
and backwar-caste peasants in the Green revoltion areas of north india, which acted both
as farmers‟ asnd intermediate castes‟ lobby from the late 1960s to the early 1990s. 32
The fourth explanation is that of the growing centralization of, and suspension
of,democracy withing the Congress party since 1972, leading to the exit of both
traditional voters and politicians whose voices were not being heard, particularly certain
regional groups and intermediate and backward-caste farmers in the northern belt, to new
or other parties.33
The fifth explanation is that of the influence on incentive of a systematic feature of the
polity, the division of powers in the constitution between the centre and the states. With
the powers that are more relevant to the daily lives of people in a largely rural society,
such as agriculture and land us,irrigation and water supply, electricity, police, education,
health and other social expenditures being vested in the states, there are incentives to
organize to capture power at the state level. 34
The sixth explanation is the growing politicization of communal and caste cleavages in
the 1990s, leading to the collapse of a catcall party like the Congress in states like UP and
Bihar where such politicization led to collapse of the middle ground, and the gravitation
of huge chunks of the electorate to communal and caste-based parties such as the
BJP,BSP,SP and RJD.35

CHAPTER 3
The seventh explanation is one that attaches greatest significance not to social cleavages
or the dominant congress party‟s structure and functioning, but to the systemic properties
of the FPTP electoral system working themselves out in a federal polity.36
The Indian party system is evolving over successive elections, and that the various trends
and counter-trend will play themselves out over the coming years and decades. As a
system Indian system is distinctive. Certainly it does not correspond to its European and
Amercian counterparts. Writing about it Paul Brass noted the difference: „party politics in
India display numerous paradoxical feature, which reveal the blending of western and
modern forms of bureaucratic organization and participatory policies with indigenous
practices and institutions. India‟s leading political party, the Indian National Congress, is
one of the oldest in the world, yet it has not succeeded in providing the nucleus for an
institutionalized party system which can be fitted easily into any one of the conventional
categories of party systems easily into any one of the conventional categories of party
systems known in the west‟.
3.4 DEMOCRACY IN DANGER
The experience of Indian democracy without the era of emergency will be incompleted. It
is blot on Indian experience of democracy in last 67 years. The era of Emergency, which
was inaugurated by Indira Gandhi on June 25/26, 1975, was the darkest chapter in the
democratic history of India. India experienced its greatest political crisis since the
Independence when Internal emergency was declared under the Article-352 of the
constitution of India. The emergency framed the “bread versus freedom” debate in India;
it took the argument out of the estate of national emergency in India on June 26, 1975,
analysts in the Western world wrote almost unanimously of their regret that a great
experiment had come to an end- the experiment of India‟s development within a pluralist
democratic framework. Mrs. Gandhi‟s suspension of civil liberties, her arrests of
opposition leaders, her attempts to amend the constitution, and her postponement of
scheduled national elections appeared to confirm liberal fears that an era of
authoritarianism had dawned in India.37 The government imposed strict censorship on
the Press and stifled all protest and opposition to the government. The state governments

CHAPTER 3
were rigidly controlled. The two non-congress governments of DMK in Tamil Nadu and
Janata Dal in Gujarat were dismissed in January and March 1976 despite being quite
compliant. Not only the non-congress, the Congress chief ministers of U.P. and Orissa
were replaced for not being reliable enough. The Internal democracy within the congress
party was more or less completely snuffed. From the second half of 1976 the Youth
Congress led by Sanjay Gandhi became more important than the parent organization.38
A series of decress, laws and constitutional amendments reduced the powers of the
judiciary to check the functioning of the executive. The emergency concentrated
unlimited state and party power in the hands of the prime minister to be exercised
through a small coterie of politicians and bureaucrats around her. On 18th January 1977,
Mrs Gandhi suddenly announced that elections to Loksabha would be held in March. She
also simultaneously released political prisoners, removed press censorship and other
restrictions on political activity such as holding of public meetings. Political parties were
allowed to campaign freely.39 The elections were held on 16th March in a free and fair
atmosphere, and when the results came in it was clear that Congress had been thoroughly
defeated. Both Mrs. Gandhi and Sanjay Gandhi lost their seats. Mrs. Gandhi issued a
statement accepting the verdict of the people with „due humility‟.
The lifting of the emergency and the free elections that followed, were a defining
moment in India‟s post-independence and democratic history. They revealed the Indian
people‟s underlying attachment to democratic values which were in turn the result of the
impact of the freedom struggle and the experience of democratic functioning, including
free elections, since 1947. As Tariq ali pointed out, in the elections of March 1977 „ the
urban and rural poor demonstrated in a very concrete and striking fashion that questions
of basic civil rights were not merely the preoccupations of the urban middle classes.‟
Inder Malhotra covering the election campaign, reported of the „truly remarkable‟ manner
in which „village audiences in the remote countryside react to sophisticated arguments
about civil liberties, fundamental rights and independence of the judiciary.‟
The years 1975-77 have been described as the years of the „test of democracy‟; there is
no doubt that the Indian people passed the test with distinction if no full marks. The

CHAPTER 3
period of emergency is a short period in the history of 67 years of democracy in India.

But it raised the many questions on the future and basic features of Indian democracy.
With passing of many elections at national and state level after 37 years of emergency the
Indian system has established the glory of democracy again and again with changing of
successive government with the people mandate. The period of 67 years to evaluate the
democracy in any country is short period of time but in vast and diversified country like
India this time period can be considered as an era which is enough to judge the success
and failure of democracy. And no doubt in it that after every election India celebrated the
democracy.
It would be better to sum up this chapter with following sentences of Chief Election
Commissioner of India V.S.Sampath “ We have earned very good name in democratic
credentials. We should improve this credentials more. We have always requested political
parties and leaders to keep up the level of dignity of your campaigning. Our appeal once
again would be election come and go, people win people lose and that‟s all different, but
the rules of the game have to be played fairly. We would request all the political parties
to cooperate in the largest interest of the democracy.”40

CHAPTER 3
REFERENCES
1. http://shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/17261/6/06_chapter%201.pdf…
2. Schumpeter. 1976. Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy. London: Allen and
Unwin. Pp. 269
3. B holden, the nature of democracy, pp. 66 .
4. http://shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/17261/6/06_chapter%201.pdf
5. J. Plamenatax democracy and illusion p.34…
6. Zoya Hasan, parties and party politics in india,.pp.1
7. Ramchandra Guha, India after Gandhi, the history of the world‟s largest
democracy,(2007) pp. 133-134
8. Ibid.
9. Ibid.
10. C.p.bhambri, Indian politics since independenc, volume 2,pp.116-117
11. http://eci.nic.in/eci_main1/GE2014/line.htm
12. C.p.bhambri, Indian politics since independenc, volume 2,pp.117
13. Ibid., pp.116
14. http://eci.nic.in/eci_main1/current/CEC_NVD_30012013.pdf
15. http://eci.nic.in/eci_main1/the_setup.aspx
16. The Oxford Companion to Politics in India by Niraja Gopal Jayal/Pratap Bhanu
Mehta…Page-98
17. Ibid., pp.101
18. Ibid., pp. 241
19. Verinder Grover, political parties and party system, pp.723
20. Ibid., pp.724
21. Ibid., pp.724-725
22. Ibid., pp. 723
23. Ibid., pp.724
24. Zoya Hasan, Parties and Party Politics in India, pp.122
25. Ibid.
26. Ibid.
Mehta…pp.245
28. Ibid.
29. Ibid., pp.246
30. Zoya Hasan, parties and party politics in india,.pp.129-130
31. Ibid.
32. Ibid.\
33. Ibid.
34. Ibid.
35. Ibid.
36. Ibid.
37. Shashi Tharoor, India: from midnight to the millennium and beyond, pp.199-200

CHAPTER 3
38. Bipan Chandra, Mridula Mukherjee, Adity Mukherjee, India after independence,
pp.254
pp.259
40. Chief Election Commissioner of India, Interview by the researcher.

EXIT POLL AND OPINION POLLS:
ROLE OF SURVEYS
IN PREDICTING AND SHAPING THE
OUTCOME
CHAPTER 4
EXIT POLL AND OPINION POLLS: ROLE OF SURVEYS IN

PREDICTING AND SHAPING THE OUTCOME
In all democratic countries media, politicians and political observers have become
increasingly obsessed with forecasting elections results. India is no exception, although
the largest democracy of the world came late into the business of opinion polling.
Political parties and media have been much influenced by opinion polls in deciding on
the timing of elections as well as in shaping their campaign strategy. The purpose of
forecasts now extends beyond merely entertaining a curious public eager to know what is
going to happen. Politicians and newspaper readers also look to public and private polls
for help on three questions: when will the election occur? Why and how will the people
use their vote? How will those votes be translated into seats in parliament? Psephology
or poll forecasting, first popularised by Gallup in the West, is the science of making
predictions based on field surveys as well as analysing electoral results. An opinion poll
is a survey of public opinion, usually designed to represent the opinions of a population
by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within
confidence intervals. An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they
have exited the polling stations. Pollsters – usually private companies working for
newspapers or broadcasters – conduct polls to gain an early indication as to how an
election has turned out, as in many elections the actual result may take hours or even days
to count.
Warren Mitosfsky, founder of Mitofsky International, is credited with having invented

the exit poll. It is pertinent to track the actual beginning of opinion polls and elections
studies in the worldwide perspective before going to trace the origin of poll surveys in
India based on opinion poll. The beginning of the polling started when Dr. Gallup
founded the American institute of public opinion in Princeton, New Jersey, USA, in the
year 1935. The objectivity of this organization was to determine the opinions held by
people with objectivity and impartiality. The first prediction made by Gallup that
Franklin Roosevelt would defeat Alfred Landon for the “Gallup polls” is best known for
its accuracy in predicting the election outcome of US presidential elections. The only two
notable exceptions in their track record were the 1948 Thomas Dewey-Harry‟s Truman

CHAPTER 4
elections when they wrongly predicted like other pollsters that Dewey will win, but he
actually lost. The second inaccurate prediction was in 1976 when Gallup poll indicated
that Gerald ford would win, but he actually lost to jimmy carter by small margin1
4.1 SIGNIFICANCE OF SURVEYS IN THE LARGEST DEMOCRACY OF THE

WORLD
In India till sometimes back and we can say that before the emergence of 24 hours news
channel in India poll surveys were just of academic importance, and not much credence
or valued time was devoted to analyze them. But with changing times and media's reach,
especially with the emergence of news channels, they became more and more acceptable
and recognizable. They have now become a part of every election. Psephology, the
formal study of elections, is only a little older than independent India. In India some
valuable research completed on voting, nationally and locally. It ranges from the pioneer
work of W.H. Morris Jones, J.O.Field and Myron Wiener to more specialized studies
such as those by A.H.Somjee, V. Siriskar, B. Ahmed and S.Eldersveld, as well as by
E.P.W. de Costa and others who have ventures into opinion polling.2
In the 1950s, there were virtually no market research organizations in India. The
dominance of the congress diminished any incentive to develop political polls. The first
national poll was carried out by the Indian institute of public opinion (IIPO) before the
1957 general election3. Dr. Eric da Costa - the founder of the Indian institute of public
opinion (IIPO) in the early 1950s, which was modelled on the American institute of
public opinion – is credited with pioneering elections studies and is considered the father
of opinion polling in India4. The IIPO has covered almost all subsequent elections till
1980s. IIPO‟s procedure has been to measure the percentage of votes likely to be cast for
each party and to convert votes into seats using a „multiplier‟ (defined as the percent of
seats for a party divided by its percent of votes). The problem with the „multiplier‟ is that
it varies and cannot be assessed before an election5. The news magazine India Today has
played a major role in promoting professional opinion polling in India. In 1980 it
commissioned IMRB with Ashok Lahiri and Prannoy Roy to conduct the first-ever large
All-India survey5

CHAPTER 4
One tool of research that has only recently been exploited in India is the opinion poll. The
diversity of the country and the difficulty of framing questions that are equally
meaningful to different linguistic and communal groups, as well as the sheer cost, has
held back its development. It is a technique that has proved valuable elsewhere and that
can reveal not only how far men and women, old and young, rich and poor, vote
different, but also how votes correlate with opinions about issues. Opinion polls get most
publicity when used by the media for forecasting elections results. But academic sample
surveys, asking an elaborate battery of questions about the elector‟s background and
attitudes, can offer much more profound insights into the whys and the wherefores of
voting6 In Ireland, a generation ago it used to be said that opinion polls would never
work. The Irish were such charming people that, instead of giving their real views, they
would always be trying to please the interviewer. Similar doubts about polls are still
expressed in India, and to them are added the real difficulties of conducting interviews in
many languages, often with illiterate, uninformed, or merely fearful respondents.
However, polls are now an established part of the Irish electoral scene and in India they
are approaching that status. In 1989, they were spectacularly successful in forecasting the
result. Although polls are fallible, especially in Indian conditions, it is possible to derive
from sample surveys a far more accurate picture of the voting intentions and political
attitudes of the Indian electorate than from any other source 7.
In the Indian democracy elections are not merely a process to select and choose the
governments. In India elections are considered as a festival of democracy. Our country
enjoy elections and stand out as not only the largest but a triumphant example of
democracy. Despite of many failing of our political parties and politicians no one can
doubt the success of the democratic process. In more than 65 years of Indian democracy
country has witnessed 16 Loksabha elections and more than 350 state assembly elections.
In many countries governments change by coups or revolutions but in our country since
the independence of our country in 1947 both at the state level and at the centre, the
governments are changed or confirmed by the people as a whole. For example, In
General elections of Loksabha 1977 the Indian electorate threw out one government but
in 1980 they decided that it should come back. In 1984, at a time of crisis, they gave an
emphatic mandate to a new leader. In 1989 they opted for change. In 1991 they reverted

CHAPTER 4
narrowly to the traditional dominance of the congress. In 1996 they didn‟t vote to return
the congress however the successive two governments were in existence with the support
of the Congress. 1998 Indian voters gave largest number of seats to BJP and in 1999 it
was almost repeated again. In 2004 the mood of the voters changed and country
witnessed congress as the largest party again and the verdict was repeated in 2009
Loksabha elections with electorate gave close to magic number of 272 seats to congress
led UPA again. After 5 years the mood of the electorate changed in way that the party
which won 206 seats in last election performed worst in the history of independent India.
The congress party won its lowest tally of 44. On the other hand the electors of Indian
imposed the faith in Bharatiya Janata Party which won on its own over 280 seats, a
mandate not seen in last 30 years of Loksabha elections, and the BJP led NDA won more
than 330 seats.
Politicians and journalists have always tried to develop a sense of how public opinion is
moving. But it is very difficult to translate a broad perception of mood into precise
quantitative terms, measuring a small change in party‟s vote. Forecasting the number of
seats likely to be won is an even more hazardous occupation than forecasting votes. A
small swing of vote can cause a disproportionately large change in seats. For pollsters,
therefore, even normal sampling errors can have a significant impact in terms of seats
won or lost.8 International experience has shown that the most accurate way of measuring
party support is to conduct a mass opinion survey of a cross-section of the public, using a
sample selected on scientific principles. In 1936, since Dr. Gallup launched this
technique, it has been adopted all over the world to forecast the outcome of elections. In
most cases, the percentage vote of each party has been predicted with a reasonably high
degree of accuracy. However, there have been some spectacular failures.9 It is ironic, for
instance, that, when Dr. Gallup made his reputation in 1936 by correctly predicting
president Roosevelt‟s re-election, his forecast had a large error than the prediction he
made later which so severely damaged his reputation. In 1936 Gallup over-stated
Roosevelt‟s vote by 7 percent (Roosevelt won with 55 percent of the vote compared to
the gall up forecast of 62 percent); in 1948, though gallup‟s error was only 4.5 percent, he
predicted the wrong winner (dewey lost by 4 percent while gall up had forecast a victory
margin of 5 percent.10

CHAPTER 4
Polls can go wrong because they are incompetently conducted, or because poor sampling
procedure is used, or because a significant number of electors stay away from the booth.
Apologists claim that they err frequently because of a „late-swing‟-voters changing their
minds during the last few days, between the final opinion poll interviews and the actual
casting of ballots. The problem with all analysis and surveys of elections is that it
ultimately rests on the votes of individuals. Voters are, almost necessarily, treated as
equal expressions of support, even though a vote means very different things to different
people. To some it is a resounding statement of faith in a party or an individual; to others
it is a marginal, almost random choice, a hesitant decision about the lesser evil. Voting
statistics do not have intensity measurements attached to them. Yet, just as a relationship
can range from a passionate love-affair to a casual acquaintance, so a vote can signify
powerful convictions or near apath. When on builds great edifices of explanation on the
statistics of an election result, on should remember how varied in quality the bricks that
on is using are.11
Elections are an inevitable part of democratic societies. Democracies provide universal

suffrage, the right to vote to its citizens. Whether the constant hammering of media
messages has any perceptible impact on the behaviour of the people is a matter of much
empirical research. Political parties, candidates, media organization and researchers,
however, are interested to know how people perceive the political campaigns, which by
and large are mediated through mass media. That people with different demographic
profile think and behave differently is also a matter of interests to the campaigners as this
helps them preparing messages to suit the psyche of electorate with varying backgrounds
and tastes to get the “desired response”.
For a long time scholars, who have studied the media behaviour of the public have found
a close relationship between their interest level in politics and attention to political
stimulus through mass media coverage. The phenomenon has several consequences in
political communication. The most interested in politics can also partisans or „brand
loyalists‟ to certain political parties. This leads one to seeking more political information
about political parties or candidates of their choice. The impact of media, the research
suggests, is likely to be greatest when the recipients of the message have little

CHAPTER 4
information and existing attitudes.12 The role of opinion polling especially during the last
few decades has been a subject of much fascination to those who are engaged in it but of
concern to political scientists, sociologists and concerned citizenry.
4.2 ROLE AND IMPACT OF SURVEYS IN VARIOUS ELECTIONS
The IIPO was the first organization in India to conduct an election survey. In 1957, the
first all India level election poll was conducted before the second LokSabha election.
Based on this survey, the first election prediction was done which was quite accurate.
Eric da costa reviewing the operations of IIPO in 1980 said: “….it was not known at that
time whether in fact an all India poll was truly feasible. The obstacles of illiteracy and the
difficulties of organizing random samples in many areas of the India union seemed
overwhelming. The first that the experiment was a extraordinary success was not proved
until the first national poll was published in 1957.” The IIPO conducted election surveys
till 1980s, but after the exit of Dr. Costa, opinion polling on elections did not figure high
on the agenda of the organization and it was discontinued. The institutional beginning of
academic study of general elections based on an all India sample survey started at the
centre for the study of developing societies (CSDS), Delhi, in the 1960s. The study
popularly known as the national election study was first conducted in 1967 as a scientific
study of the political behaviour, opinion, and attitudes of the electorates in India. This
was followed by another national level study conducted during the 1971 general
elections. During the 1980 Loksabha elections, while the CSDS designed the all India
survey, the IIPO conducted the fieldwork. Although this survey was not the part of the
series, but it can be used to partly fill the gap in the series14 During the 1980s, survey
research of elections and voting behaviour did not figure prominently on the centre‟s
intellectual agenda, nor was the series take over by any other institution, which resulted
in a long break in the time series data and it was in the mid-1990s that the CSDS revived
the nes tradition and it remains one of the most prestigious studies of voting behaviour in
India.15 In 1991, most of the polls seemed to fare reasonably well. Three of the four
nationwide surveys came up with forecasts that were within 20 seats of the final congress
tally of 232 seats.(India today 233; frontline 224; week 245-270). Only one (Sunday 310)
seemed seriously in error. But all these surveys conducted before the assassination of
Rajiv Gandhi. There is no doubt that the assassination produced a sharp swing to the

CHAPTER 4
congress. If the constituencies that voted belatedly in June had behaved like those that
voted on 21st May, the Congress would seem to be the correct benchmark against which
to assess the accuracy of the 1991 polls.16 Till 2009 in Loksabh election barring a few
occasions, such surveys have, however, never been appropriate or even close to the mark.
The opinion polls and the exit polls conducted during 2004 and 2009 general elections
are examples of some of the worst surveys conducted by agencies. In the 2004 elections,
every agency in its forecast declared NDA as the winner. But the results went the other
way. It was predicted that the BJP and its allies would win about 230-250 seats and the
Congress and allies close to 205. But the Congress and its allies went ahead and formed
the government with 219 seats and the NDA could not cross the 190 mark. It‟s a matter
of research also that why despite of surveys conducted by the many agencies, the
outcome and direction of exit or opinion polls are in the same way. The reason for this
tendency according to the director of CSDS Mr. Sanjay Kumar “Also, agencies
conducting opinion polls get influenced by each other‟s polls. If two or more polls show a
particular party as the winner, the third agency tries to dilute its survey if it has a different
result,”17 In 2009 general election most opinion polls and exit polls conducted by major
agencies gave the UPA an edge over the NDA, but none were predicted almost simple
majority for the UPA. When the final results came UPA got close to the number of seats
needed for simple majority. NDA was short behind prediction in many surveys.
4.3 ANALYSIS OF EXIT POLLS AND ACTUAL RESULTS OF DIFFERENT

ELECTIONS
To know the success and failures of exit polls in India, the analysis of election exit polls
results have been done. The exit polls results sample taken randomly during last 10-15
years elections. It is noticeable that last 15 years are also the era of emergence and rapid
growth of television news channels in India. To understand the success and failure of exit
polls in India I randomly selected 24 elections for which exit polls have done since 2002.
Among these 24 elections exit polls, 3 are of Loksabha General elections and rest are of
assembly elections. Out of 24 sample of exit polls 16 are of elections that were held since
2009 or during the last 5 years Period. It will help to understand the trends of the exit
polls in predicting the election outcome in recent years. The results of exit polls were
compared with actual results the election. On two basic grounds success and failure of the

CHAPTER 4
results decided. First, whether exit polls were able to read the mood of voters that which
party or alliance is going to win largest number of seats and Second, whether the exit
polls prediction of seats for the parties got right or near the actual number. After the
comparison of the exit polls and actual results the performance and evaluation of exit
polls decided on four categories--- Very Good, Good, Bad and Worst.
In the Very Good category those exit polls have been place which were succeeded in
reading the mood of the Voter and seats of the Party or alliance on the same line what
final outcome has produced.
In Good category those exit polls have been placed which were able to read the voters
mood but couldn't able to predict the right number of seats. For example: exit polls
predicted that Party A will got largest number of seats or got majority marks but failed to
get the extent of win or loss in terms number of seats.
In Bad category those elections exit polls were placed which were not able to predict the
clear winner or loser...in some cases different agencies or news channels divided in their
predictions for the same elections also.
In the Worst category case those exit polls were placed in which the actual outcome were
entirely opposite to the exit polls predictions... Those exit polls were also placed in this
category in which exit polls results were showing close fight between parties and alliance
but finally the clear winner emerged.

CHAPTER 4
Table 4.3.1: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Loksabha General Election
200418
PARTY/ALLIANCE NDA UPA OTHERS
POLL AGENCIES
AAJ TAK/ORG 248 190 105
NDTV/INDIAN 230-250 190-205 100-120

EXP.
SAHARA/DRS 263-278 171-181 92-102
STAR NEWS 263-275 174-186 86-98
ZEE NEWS 249 176 117
ACTUAL 185 217 137
SOURCE-
16,MAY
2004/PIONEER
The analysis of exit poll and actual results of general elections 2004 shows that the
pollsters failed to read the mood of voters very badly. All agencies gave National
democratic alliance over 272 plus seats or near 272 seats. Not a single pollsters had
predicted that United progressive alliance will get 217 seats. it shows that the 2004 exit
polls not only failed in projecting the seats which is no where around the actual seats but
polls also failed to read the mood of voters. The exit polls of 2004 general elections
considered as the worst exit polls in the history of psephology.

CHAPTER 4
Table 4.3.2 : Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Loksabha General Election
200919
PARTY/AL NDA UPA THIRD FOURTH

LIANCE FRONT FRONT
POLL
AGENCY
CNN- 165- 185- 110-130 25-35
IBN/DAINI 185 205
K
BHASKAR
STAR- 196 199 100 36
NIELSEN
INDIA TV- 183- 189- 105-121
C VOTER 195 201
ACTUAL 159 262 79 27
SOURCE-
http://www.hindu.com/20
09/05/14/stories/2009051
457840100.htm/
ELECTION
COMMISSION OF
INDIA
The exit polls of general elections 2009 was not only failed but also seemed confused
over which alliance or party will win. Exit polls results were giving in the range of
around 200 seats to both alliance- NDA and UPA. However actual results were very clear
in favour of UPA. UPA were only 10 short of clear majority and NDA were not only far
away from majority number, the alliance was short of minimum numbers of seats given
by the pollsters to NDA. In this election also exit polls failed to predict the outcome in
both ways in terms of seats and reading the mood of the voters.

CHAPTER 4
Table 4.3.3 : Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Loksabha General Election
201420
CHANNEL BJP+ CONGRESS+ OTHERS
ABP-NEWS 281 97 165
CNN-IBN 270-282 92-102 150-159
INDIA TODAY 261-283 101-120 152-162
INDIA TV 289 101 153
NEWS24/CHANAKYA 340 70 133
TIMES NOW 249 148 146
ACTUAL 336 58 149
SOURCES-
http://www.india.com/election-
2014/parties/aam-aadmi-
party/lok-sabha-elections-2014-
exit-poll-results-19422/Election
Commission of India
The results of general elections 2014 established the credibility of exit polls first time in
the era of television news channels. However expect one all exit polls were not predicted
the numbers the NDA got in the final counting but every exit polls were projecting the
big victory for NDA, so almost all exit polls prediction, in number of seats, was near the
actual numbers. But exit polls also failed here in predicting the seats of UPA. Except
News 24/Chanakya no one had predicted humiliating defeat to the UPA, which won only
58 seats in the actual count.

CHAPTER 4
Table 4.3.4 : Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Maharashtra Assembly
Elections 2004 21
PARTY/ALLIANCE INC+ BJP+ OTHERS
POLLING
AGENCY
AAJ TAK 140-150 100-110 30-40
NDTV 120-130 125-135 30-45
STAR 142 122 24
ZEE 125 115 48
ACTUAL 141 117 30
SOURCE-
WIKIPEDIA
MAHARASTRA
ASSEMBLY
ELECTION,2004
In Maharashtra assembly elections 2004 maximum of exit polls succeeded to predict the
mood and numbers of seats. The table show that out of four, two of exit poll agency or
news channels were in range of actual number of seats and two of them were near. The
exit polls were also succeeded to predict the number of runner-up seats near the actual
results.

CHAPTER 4
Table 4.3.5 : Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Maharashtra Assembly
Elections 200922
PARTY/ALLIANCE CONG-NCP SS-BJP MNS OTHERS
POLLING
AGENCY
CNN-IBN 135-145 105-115 8-12 25-35
STAR NEWS- 137 113 12 26

NIELSON
ACTUAL 144 91 13 40
OUTCOME
SOURCE-
WIKIPEDIA
MAHARASTRA
ASSEMBLY
ELECTION,2009
The exit polls of Maharashtra assembly elections 2009 was also considered as a
successful one in predicting the mood and number of seats in favour of Cong-Ncp
Alliance. However the prediction of runner-up seats was short of the predictions but
mood of the voters gauged by the pollsters.

CHAPTER 4
Table 4.3.6 : Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Uttar Pradesh Assembly
Election 200223
PARTY/ALLIANCE BJP CONG SP+ BSP+
POLL AGENCY
AAJ TAK 142 22 136 83
DD 118 36 156 80
ZEE 131 24 145 84
TIMES/DRS 122-134 10-20 155-170 80-84
ACTUAL 109 26 146 99
SOURCE-
INDIAN
EXPRESS, 26
FEB, 2002
The exit polls of Uttar Pradesh assembly elections 2002 was also a success. However no
party got clear majority in the finals results in four cornered contest in the largest state of
Indian. Exit polls also showed the fractured mandate in this elections which was proved
by the actual results of the elections.

CHAPTER 4
Table 4.3.7: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Uttar Pradesh Assembly
Election 200724
PARTY/ALLIAN BJP CONG SP BSP

CE
POLL AGENCY
STAR-NIELSON 108 27 96 137

CN-IBN/INDIAN 108 21-27 145 152-168
EXPRESS
ACTUAL 51 22 97 206
SOURCE-
http://www.dancewit
hshadows.com/politi
cs/up-exit-polls.asp
In the assembly elections of Uttar Pradesh 2007, the exit polls were in no win situation.
Not a single agency was right. However almost all agencies gave maximum seats to BSP,
but no one had predicted that Party will cross the magic number of 202.

CHAPTER 4
Table 4.3.8: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Uttar Pradesh Assembly
Election 201225
ALLIAN BSP SP BJP INC-RLD OTHERS

CE/PAR
TY
POLL
AGENC
Y
STAR 83 183 71 51 11
NEWS-
NIELSE
N
CNN- 65-77 232- 28-38 36-44 11-23
IBN 250
AAJ 88-98 195- 50-56 38-42 20
TAK 210
ACTUA 80 224 47 37 15 SOURCE-
L http://en.wikipedia.or
g/wiki/Uttar_Pradesh
_Legislative_Assemb
ly_election,_2012#O
pinion_polls/SOURC
E-ELECTION
COMMISSION OF
INDIA
The exit polls of 2012 elections of Uttar Pradesh got almost right in terms of reading
mood and predicting the seats. The exit polls were also succeeded in predicting the seats
of rest of the parties right.

CHAPTER 4
Table 4.3.9: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Punjab Assembly Election
200226
PARTY/ALLIANCE BJP+ CONG+
POLL AGENCY
AAJ TAK 17 91
DD/C FOR 30 72
ACTUAL 44 62
SOURCE-INDIAN EXPRESS, 26
FEBRUARY, 2002
The exit polls done during Punjab assembly elections 2002 was success in predicting
mood of the voters but not the number of seats. All pollsters given congress the majority
of seats but the difference of seats in actual and exit polls results may be considered as
failure, if we see the strength of Punjab assembly, which is only 117.

CHAPTER 4
Table 4.3.10: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Punjab Assembly Election
201227
ALLIANCE/P BJP- CON OTHERS

ARTY SAD G
POLL
AGENCY
INDIA TV/C 44-50 62-68
VOTER
HEADLINES 58-62 50-54
TODAY
NEWS 52 60
24/CHANAK
YA
CSDS/IBN 51-63 48-60
STAR NEWS- 58 56
NIELSEN
ACTUAL 68 46 3
SOURCE---
http://www.hindustantimes.com/pun
jab/chandigarh/4--exit-polls-give-an-
edge-to-congress-in-punjab/article1-
820349.aspx/ELECTION
COMMISSION OF INDIA
The exit poll results of Punjab assembly election 2012 was in the category of failed. Not
only it failed to predict but the different poll agencies are in difference in predicting, who
will win. Some of them were showing win for BJP-SAD alliance and some of them
showed win for Congress.

CHAPTER 4
Table 4.3.11: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Kerala Assembly Elections
201128
ALLIAN LDF UDF OTHERS

E/PARTY
POLL
AGENCY
CSDS-CNN 69-77 63-71
IBN
C 58-68 78-82 0-2
FORE/ASIA
NET
HEADLINE 48-55 85-92
S TODAY-
ORG
STAR 49 88
NEWS
CHANAKY 35-53 84-102 0-6
A-NEWS 24
ACTUAL 68 72 SOURCE-
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerala_L
egislative_Assembly_election,_2011#
Post-poll_surveys/ELECTION
COMMISSION OF INDIA
The Kerala assembly elections 2011 exit polls were able to read the mood of voters but
they were not able to predict the number of the winner what they actually won in the final
outcome. Few among them gave winner more seats in comparison to actual numbers
alliance got, and some of them gave lesser number of seats in comparison to actual
numbers what the runner-up got.

CHAPTER 4
Table 4.3.12: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Karnataka Assembly
Elections 201329
ALLIAN CONG BJP JD KJP OTH

CE/PAR S ERS
TY
TIMES 132 38 38 15
NOW
HEADLI 114 55 34 11 9
NES
TODAY
C 110-118 51-59 31- 9-13 7-11
VOTER 37
ABP 110-118 51-59 31- 9-13
NEWS 37
ACTUA 122 40 40 6 16
L
SOURCE-
http://electionaffairs.c
om/karnataka/assembl
y_elections_2013/exit
_poll_karnataka_asse
mbly_elections_2013.
php
In the 224 assembly seats of Karnataka, every poll agencies or news channels predicted
majority for the congress party and predictions were also around the actual results. It is
clear from the table analysis that mood of voters and seats predicted for the different
parties in the states were on the line of voter mood.

CHAPTER 4
Table 4.3.13: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Bihar Assembly Election
201030
PARTY/ALLIANCE JDU-BJP RJD-LJP CONG OTHERS
POLL
AGENCY/NEWS
CHANNEL
CNN-IBN 185-201 21-32 6-12 9-19
STAR NEWS- 148 68 14 13

NIELSON
C-VOTER 142-154 59-71 12-18
ACTUAL 206 25 4 8
SOURCE-20th
Nov, 2010,
Exit polls
results: Bihar
election 2010,
A Website.
The exit polls of Bihar assembly elections 2010 was very much in reading the mood of
the voters. But all pollsters except one were nowhere around the numbers what the NDA
alliance got after the counting held. It clearly shows that the exit polls failed to gauge the
number of seats what the different parties or alliance got. All exit polls were showing
clear mandate to NDA but except one no one had predicted landslide victory to the NDA.

CHAPTER 4
Table 4.3.14: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Gujrat Assembly Elections
200731
PARTY/ BJP CONG OTHERS

ALLIANCE
POLL
AGENCY
CNN-IBN 92-100 77-85
NDTV 24/7 90-110 70-95
STAR NEWS 103 76
ACTUAL 117 59 6
SOURCE-IBN
POLITICS
WEBSITE, 23
DEC, 2007
The exit polls of Gujrat Assembly Elections were giving clear mandate to BJP and actual
results also confirmed it with big mandate to the party. But in the case of congress all exit
polls were giving more seats to the party what it actually won. It may be good to say that
successful in reading the mood of voters but not in predicting the actual seats.

CHAPTER 4
Table 4.3.15: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Gujrat Assembly Elections
201232
ALLIANCE/PO BJ CON OTHER

LL P G S
POLL
AGENCY
C VOTER- 119 49-59
TIMES NOW -
129
CHANAKYA- 140 40
NEWS 24
HEADLINES 118 50-56
TODAY -
128
ABP NEWS 116 60
ACTUAL 116 60 6 SOURCE-
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com
/2012-12-17/news/35868737_1_vote-share-
polls-on-television-channels-
seats/ELECTION COMMISSION OF
INDIA
The maximum exit polls of 2012 Gujrat assembly elections were very close in predicting
the seats and reading the mood of voters. It can be said that it was a success in both terms
in predicting actual number of seats and reading the mood.

CHAPTER 4
Table 4.3.16: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Tamilnadu Assembly
Elections 200633
PARTY/A DMK+ AIAD OTHERS

LLIANCE MK+
POLL
AGENCIE
S
CNN-IBN 157- 64-74 2-6

HINDU 167
ACTUAL 163 69 2
SOURCE---
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamil_Nadu
_Legislative_Assembly_election,_2006#
Exit_polls
The exit polls of Tamilnadu Assembly elections 2006 was a good success. The actual
number of winner and runner-up were in same range what exit poll had predicted.

CHAPTER 4
Table 4.3.17: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Tamilnadu Assembly
Elections 201134
ALLIANC DMK+ AIADMK+ OTHERS

E/PARTY
POLL
AGENCY
HEADLIN 115-130 105-120
ES
TODAY/O
RG
CNN- 102-114 120-132
IBN/THE
WEEK
ASIANET 117 132
-C FORE
POLL
STAR 124 110
NEWS
http://en.wikipedia.org/
wiki/Tamil_Nadu_Legi
slative_Assembly_elect
ion,_2011#Post-
poll_surveys
The exit polls of Tamilnadu assembly election 2011 were a clear blot on the pollsters
because the success achieved in 2006 were turned down completely in 2011 assembly
elections. Even no pollsters were able to gauge the mood of voters, no one had given
majority to any party or alliance. The exit polls performance were as worst as in 2004
General Election of loksabha.

CHAPTER 4
Table 4.3.18: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of West Bengal Assembly
Elections 201135
ALLIA TMC+ LEFT BJP OTHERS

NCE/P
ARTY
POLL
AGEN
CY
STAR 225 34 2 33
NEWS
-
NIELS
EN
IBN- 222-234 60-72 2 10
WEEK
ACTU 227 62 0 5
AL
SOURCE-
http://electionaffairs.com/W
est%20Bengal/assembly_ele
ctions_2011/Exit_Poll_resul
ts_West%20Bengal_Assem
bly_Elections_2011.html/E
LECTION COMMISSION
OF INDIA
The exit polls of West Bengal assembly elections 2011 were a clear success. In terms of
predicting the number and mood, in both case polls were near or in the range of actual
numbers.

CHAPTER 4
Table 4.3.19: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Uttarakhand Assembly
Elections 201236
ALLIA BJP CON OTHERS

NCE/P G
ARTY
POLL
AGEN
CY
STAR 39 29 2
NEWS
HEAD 26- 38-42 0
LINES 30
TODA
Y
NEWS 28 30 12
24
NEWS 26 32 12
EXPRE
SS
INDIA 22- 29-35 0
TV 29
ACTU 31 32 7 SOURCE---
AL http://electionaffairs.com/uttarakhand/stat
e_assembly_elections_2012/exit_poll_res
ults_uttarakhand_Assembly_Elections_20
12.html/ECI
The actual outcome of the Uttrakhand Assembly elections was presented a hung
assembly in the state. If we analyse the different exit poll results there were many
indications from this polls. First different exit polls were in different position in gauging
the mood of the voter. Second thing is that except two agencies/news channel no one
gave any party majority. It was also interesting that two agencies were giving majority to
two different parties, one to the Congress and one to the BJP. The exit poll results of
Uttarakhand assembly elections 2012 failed to read both mood and numbers of the
parties.

CHAPTER 4
Table 4.3.20: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Himachal Pradesh
Assembly Elections 201237
ALLIANCE/PO BJ CON OTHER

LL P G S
POLL
AGENCY
C VOTER- 27- 30-38
TIMES NOW 35
CHANAKYA- 23 40 5
NEWS 24
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com
/2012-12-17/news/35868737_1_vote-share-
polls-on-television-channels-
seats/ELECTION COMMISSION OF
INDIA
The exit polls results of Himachal Pradesh elections were somewhere on the same line
what actual results produced. They were around the actual numbers but in case of small
states the predictions should be more close to the actual number.

CHAPTER 4
Table 4.3.21: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Madhya Pradesh Assembly
Elections 201338
ALLIANCE/PA BJP CO BSP OTHERS

RTY NG
AGENCY
TIMES NOW-C 128 92 6 4
VOTER
ORG-INDIA 138 80 12
TODAY
CHANAKYA 161 62 7
ABP NEWS- 138 80 6
NIELSEN
CNN- 136-146 67- 13-21
IBN/CSDS 77
ACTUAL 165 58 4 3
SOURCE---
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.
com/india/Assembly-
elections-Exit-polls-point-to-
Congress-rout-in-four-states-
vary-wildly-on-
Delhi/articleshow/26869114.c
ms
The actual results of the Madhya Pradesh assembly elections 2013 shows that the exit
polls results for the state were successful in reading the mood but they were not able to
predict that BJP will get landslide victory in the state. Except one agency all were far
away from the actual seats BJP and runner-up won.

CHAPTER 4
Table 4.3.22: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Ch Attishgarh Assembly
Elections 201339
ALLIANCE/PA BJP CONG BSP OTHERS

RTY
AGENCY
VOTER
ORG-INDIA 53 33 4
TODAY
CHANAKYA 51 39
CSDS 45-55 32-40 1-7
ACTUAL 49 39 2
SOURCE-
http://timesofindi
a.indiatimes.com
/india/Assembly-
elections-Exit-
polls-point-to-
Congress-rout-
in-four-states-
vary-wildly-on-
Delhi/articlesho
w/26869114.cms
In Chhattisgarh assembly exit polls 2013 all exit polls were around the actual seats BJP
and Congress won. Naturally the exit polls were successful in reading the mood of the
voters and number of seats parties won.

CHAPTER 4
Table 4.3.23: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Delhi Assebmly Elections
201340
PARTY/ALLIA BJP CONG AAP OTHERS

NCE
POLL
AGENCY
VOTER
INDIA 41 20 6 3
TODAY-ORG
CHANAKYA 29 10 31 0
ABP-NEWS 37 16 15 2
NIELSON
ACTUAL 31 8 28 3
SOURCE-
http://timesofindia.india
times.com/india/Assem
bly-elections-Exit-polls-
point-to-Congress-rout-
in-four-states-vary-
wildly-on-
Delhi/articleshow/26869
114.cms
In case of Delhi assembly elections 2013 exit polls showed mixed results. However poll
agencies were predicting BJP as the largest party in the 70 member Assembly. But except
one poll agency/news channel all were failed to read the mood of voters and number of
seats of opposition parties. Analysis of the results show that except one agency all were
failed to reach near the actual outcome.

CHAPTER 4
Table 4.3.24: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Rajasthan Assembly
Elections 201341
ALLIANCE/PAR BJP CONG OTHERS

TY
AGENCY
TIMES NOW-C 130 48 21
VOTER
ORG-INDIA 110 62 28
TODAY
CHANAKYA 147 39 14
CSDS 126-136 49-57 12-20
ACTUAL 163 21 16
SOURCE-
http://timesofindia.indiati
mes.com/india/Assembly
-elections-Exit-polls-
point-to-Congress-rout-
in-four-states-vary-
wildly-on-
Delhi/articleshow/26869
114.cms
The actual results of the Rajasthan assembly elections 2013 shows that the exit polls
results for the state were successful in reading the mood that who will be the largest party
in the state but they were not able to predict that BJP will get landslide victory in the
state. No agency was near the actual seats won by the BJP and Congress.

CHAPTER 4
4.4 RESULTS OF ANALYSIS
The analysis of the all twenty-four elections exit polls and actual results show mixed
picture about the exit polls. After comparison between the actual results and exit poll
results of 24 general elections(3 Loksabha+21 State Assemblies) it has been found that
in 6 elections exit polls performance were in the category of worst. In 1 elections exit
polls performance were in bad category. In case of 8 elections the exit polls performed in
the category of Very Good and in 9 elections the performance were in Good Category.
The analysis of the results show that the exit polls predictions were not so bad or worst as
the public image is. However the analysis show that in Loksabha general elections 2014
exit polls got first time right since 1999 election. In last 3 Loksabha elections before
2014, the exit polls produced worst results. The public image about the opinion and exit
polls are build up more on the basis of Loksabha elections because during Loksabha
elections the electorate of the whole country get involved in the election process at the
same period and every voters have eye on the any development about the elections and
exit polls and opinion polls are among them. In state elections exit polls results show that
out of 21 elections exit polls 7 performed very good and 9 are in good category. 4
assembly elections exit polls predictions were worst and 1 election was bad for exit polls.
The analysis of assembly elections exit polls give positive picture about the exit polls in
India. Question is after the success of 2014 Loksabha general election exit polls, public
image will change? “The prospects of Opinion poll and Exit poll are bright in a
democratic country like India due to regular elections. Most of the polls were correct in
making the assessment in Loksabha general election 2014”.said Mr. Sanjay Kumar,
Director, CSDS42
4.5 TELEVISION AS A MEDIUM OF POPULARIZING SURVEYS
Elections surveys in India is more than 60 years old, but survey conducted to measure the
voting behaviour of Indians and quantifying their political opinion and attitudes have
become very popular in India in recent times. The popularity of opinion polls started in
the 1980s when Dr. Pranoy Roy started conducting opinion polls during elections to find
out the mood of the India voters. The attempt by Dr. Roy was to make opinion polls a
scientific way of studying elections with number crunching and seat predictions. In 1989,

CHAPTER 4
Dr. Roy in collaboration with the marketing and research group conducted an exit poll
when 77,000 voters were interviewed after casting their votes. The poll predicted the
victory of congress and it was more or less accurate and elections results later on
confirmed the accuracy of the poll. „Vote swing‟ calculated on the basis of gain or loss of
vote share compared to the last elections by political parties became a very popular word
and Dr. Roy became a household name among television viewers in India. The initiative
taken by Dr. Roy was picked up, and the media and opinion polling hit the growth
trajectory in the 1990s aided by proliferation of electronic media in the corresponding
period. Election surveys and exit polls for measuring voter‟s opinion and behaviour
became quite popular in the country.43 Many factors contributed to the growing
popularity of election surveys in India in the 1990s, but it expanded very fast due to
mainly three factors: (a) it created a curiosity among the voters as well as political parties
to know about the party which would win the elections and how many seats major
political parties would win in the election before the actual election took place; (b) for
political parties pre-poll surveys provided them information about the electoral behaviour
of the various sections of the voters and their political choices; (c) for media it provided
them immense data on the voting behaviour and attitudes of the voters and helped them
in analyzing the election and making seat forecast more comprehensively and in a
detailed manner. The inquisitiveness of media in knowing the elections results
beforehand made electoral studies with elections forecasting and seat prediction during
elections quite prevalent and popular.44 The emergence of 24 hours news channels during
the end of 1990s and in the beginning of the 21st century witnessed further growth of the
opinion poll industry in India and media started engaging various market research
organizations to conduct polls during the elections. We invariably find expert panels on
television during the elections each time making in-depth analysis of poll results citing a
host of factors like anti-incumbency, multiplicity of parties and changing alliances et al.
for inaccurate predictions.
Apart from market research agencies like AC Nielson and ORG-Marg, new organizations
like the Centre for Media Studies, Development and Research Services, C-Voter also
entered this industry of opinion polls and exit polls to analyze the voting behaviour of the
Indian electorates. Exit polls became the buzzword and election forecasting and

CHAPTER 4
predicting the number of seats that party combinations are likely to win in the national
and state level elections became a regular feature during this decade. Among print media,
India today published the first poll in 1989 and since then it had been continuously
conducting opinion polls of every major election and making elections forecasts. In the
last two general elections of 2004 and 2009, almost all the prominent news channels in
association with print media used market research agencies and other polling agencies for
conducting elections polls. Based on the survey data and using the expertise of pollsters
and psephologists, seat predictions were made which were completely off the mark in
2004 and if not accurate showed the results in the right direction in 2009 .45
The industry of opinion and exit polls have flourished during last one and half decade.
The large number of surveys conducted among the Indian electorates during last one
decade is a testimony to industry in the country. The last three general elections held in
the year 2004, 2009 and 2014 shows a fierce competition in the Indian media for
conducting pre-poll surveys and exit polls. Infact the opinion polls and exit polls results
give byline/title to the print and electronic media as headlines. There is no doubt that
news television in India is now clearly shaping the voter attitudes. After emergence of
television news channels the television has reached from metro to urban, then semi-urban
and now in rural areas. The capacity of news television to shape the voter attitudes have
been expanded due to extension of television in rural areas and as we know that majority
of our voters live in rural part of India.
The findings of the CNN-IBN-THE Hindu Election Tracker Survey, conducted by the
CSDS showed that 42 per cent voters accessing television every day, TV is, by far, the
most preferred medium for information on news and current affairs. The survey was
based on interviews with close to 20,000 respondents spread across 267 constituencies in
18 States. While 42 per cent watched TV news daily, 29 per cent respondents said they
read newspapers every day. Twelve per cent listened to radio, while 5 per cent accessed
the Internet. Sixty-six per cent of those interviewed said they never went online for news,
while 44 per cent did not use radio for news at all. Sixty per cent of voters have
moderate-to-high media exposure. This was based on an index, which measured how
regularly voters accessed the four mediums, radio, Internet, TV and print. North Indian

CHAPTER 4
States, according to the survey, had the highest exposure to different media forms, while
east India ranked the lowest.46
4.6 GROWING DEMAND TO DISCONTINUE WITH POLL SURVEYS
The widespread perception about the opinion polls surveys is that the forecasts might
influence voters, especially the undecided. This is one of the major reasons, the objection
arises to poll forecasts. People also feel that some of the surveys, if not all, are not
objective because they are sponsored by the interested parties. According to Ajay Singh
of Governance Now, a news magazine, “Yes, this is fact. Can‟t say for every pollsters.
But I know the pollsters who changed the percentage in favour of particular party. But
what I think in the basis of my journalistic experience despite of many pros and cons that
poll surveys should be continued.”47 Senior Journalist Shankar Arnimesh of Focus News
Channel mentioned an incident of how the surveys results were affected by the political
parties “...during 2004 Loksabha General elections a media adviser of the senior leader of
BJP told the poll agency that increased the seats of BJP from 240 to 272. Generally the
poll agents do all exercise in a close room. There are few who go to the voters and take
their opinion. Opinion polls are impactful on floating votes and definetly it works.”48
Since there are more misses than hits for the Indian pollsters and the surveys are neither
uniform any infallible. However, interest in opinion poll or exit poll surveys revives
before every impending election. Opinion polls offering predictions are widely
publicized, people question whether they affect the final outcome by having either a
„bandwagon‟ effect (encouraging voters to vote for the winning side) or and „underdog
effect‟(evoking sympathy and support for the apparent loser which increase his votes).
Infact the evidence that either phenomenon occurs is negligible. If anything, experience
suggests that underdog sympathy is more likely. Poll may cause some voters to turn
against the party shown as leading in the opinion polls because they dislike the prospect
of any party winning by an excessive margin. 49
Exit polls, presumably more credible, are not free from errors. The investigators
complain that they are not allowed to stand near the exit gates. However the cultural

CHAPTER 4
diversity; illiteracy and the heterogeneous character of the electorate were sometimes
responsible for contradictions in poll predictions as is generally believed but the real
reason appears to be the existence of a plethora of political parties and fragmentation of
the electorate. This logic appears to be plausible as opinion polls in countries like the
U.S. and the U.K. fare better since they deal with just two or three parties. The dynamics
of urban-rural divide also plays a major role in upsetting calculations. While a fool proof
and transparent methodology needs to be adopted in surveys for ensuring objectivity and
accuracy, the apprehension that these predictions might influence voters appears to be
exaggerated. It is difficult to change the Indian voter; the so-called influence might at
best be marginal making no difference to the final result.
There are many reasons for the position that opinion and exit polls are bad for our
democracy. One, media-driven opinion polls and forecasts based on these are widely
noted by the public at large. Two, following from the first, these polls therefore influence
the process by which people make up their mind about who to vote for. Three, this
influence is either illegitimate, for most of the forecasts are not correct, or undesirable
anyway as it adversely affects the level-playing ground in politics. Not everyone makes
all the three arguments. And not every critic of the impact of opinion polls questions the
professional integrity of the pollsters.
The limitations of opinion poll-based elections studies and its criticism began in the
1970s. Academicians pointed out that election surveys held in the last two decades failed
to bring forward any expertise in understanding and explaining the voting behaviour of
the Indian electorate. The 1990s saw not only the growth of opinion polling industry on
elections but also more criticisms and limitations of survey research in measuring voting
behaviour in India. Apart from academic questions on the scope and relevance of election
surveys, the polling industry also got mired in public controversy and questioning. There
were allegations that findings of the elections surveys were tampered and used as potent
tool to swing the opinion of the voters for political gain. This led to public litigations to
curb polling on elections and putting restrictions on elections surveys. As a result of this
election commission took initiative to impose ban on poll surveys.50

CHAPTER 4
4.7 EXIT POLLS AND OPINION POLLS AND ELECTION COMMISSION OF

INDIA
The Election Commission of India took the step to ban the exit polls in 2009. The
commission is trying to ban elections survey since long as the commission think the
publishing of poll surveys will have the potential to influence the voters mind. As former
Chief Election Commissioner of India, S.Y. Quraishi is always in favour to ban the
opinion poll, “ Opinion poll may be paid. People say there is no significance difference
due to Opinion poll. What is the meaning of significant difference if one vote can be
affected by the wrong information. It is not fair with the process of election.”51
Various agencies conduct poll surveys prior to the poll on the likely voting pattern and
publish and disseminate the results of such surveys through different media. Similarly, on
the date of poll, actual result of the election is sought to be predicted on the basis of
information collected from the voters. Results of such surveys, called „Exit Poll‟, are
published and disseminated after the poll is over. In the case of an election, where poll is
taken on a single day, there cannot be any serious objection in publishing the results of
Exit Polls after the close of poll. However, in many general elections, poll has to be
staggered over different dates mainly for law and order and security related reasons. In
such cases, publishing the result of opinion poll on the earlier phases will have the
potential to influence the voting pattern in the subsequent phases. Similarly, the opinion
polls, which are conducted during the run-up to the poll, are also likely to influence the
minds of the electors. The Commission has been of the view that here should be some
restriction or regulation on the publishing / dissemination of the results of opinion polls
and exit polls. The Commission had issued some guidelines in this regard in 1998. This
was challenged in petitions before Courts and subsequently on the observation of the
Hon‟ble Supreme Court that the Commission did not have the power to enforce the
guidelines; the same were withdrawn by the Commission. The ECI had in April, 2004,
discussed the issue of Exit Polls and Opinion Polls with the recognized political parties.
The unanimous view expressed by the political parties at that meeting was that there
should be prohibition on publishing the results of Opinion Polls from the date of
notification of election, and that the Exit Polls should not be permitted till the poll is

CHAPTER 4
completed in all phases. After taking the views of political parties, on the proposal of the
commission the Government of India in 2009 amended the law in tune with the views
expressed by the political parties on exit polls. The amendment to the Representation of
the People Act, 1951 to prohibit conduct of Exit Polls is a follow up action on
recommendation of the political parties and the Commission. However, the amendment
addresses only one part of the recommendation relating to Exit Polls. The Commission
had reiterated the need to extend similar restrictions to Opinion Polls also, when the
Amendment Act of 2010, dealing with Exit Polls was passed by the Parliament.
The Commission is of the considered view, and reiterates its earlier recommendation, that
the conduct of Opinion Polls and dissemination of results of such polls should be
prohibited right from the day of the first notification of an election and till the completion
of poll in all the phases where a general election is held in different phases. Such a
restriction would be in the wider interests of free and fair elections as such Opinion Polls
often tend to cause prejudicial effect on the minds of electors. 53 In November, 2013, after
getting fresh support from various political parties, the Election Commission has written
to the Ministry of Law and Justice for a ban on opinion polls from the date of notification
of elections. Majority of party supported ban on opinion polls except Bharatiya Janata
Party. Prominent parties which sought a ban or restriction on opinion polls ahead of
elections include Congress, CPI-M, BSP and NCP, besides SP, AIADMK, DMK, JD-U,
Shiv Sena and SAD. The TMC, DMDK, IUML and KJP have also favoured a ban/
restriction on polls during elections, saying it affects the voters. The BJP, however, says
there should be no ban as this would fall in the realm of a restriction on fundamental right
of freedom of speech and expression. A number of political parties have responded
positively to the EC proposal, with Congress leading the bandwagon in seeking a
complete ban or regulation on opinion polls during the election process.
However the pollsters are not in the favour of banning opinion poll. YogendraYadav, the
man who has come to be identified with opinion has raised concern against a ban. He said
“…Any attempt at banning opinion polls will simply open up a black-market of
information- opinion polls will still be conducted. They will be conducted because
politicians will need it, they will be conducted because parties desperately need it,

CHAPTER 4
newspapers,and media channels need it. They will be done but they will be brushed under
the carpet. That will make it much worse than what it it now.” YogendraYadav added,
“…there has to be a professional code of conduct for opinion polls. There should be strict
norms for disclosure. Disclosing who sponsored the survey, who paid for it, disclosing
what the sample size was, what was the technique through which the sample was
selected, what was the social profile of the sample, what was the raw vote share obtained
and how was that raw vote share converted into vote estimates and seat estimates. Once
these things are done, so much of the problem and loss of reputation of opinion polls will
be checked. You have to have a professional code of conduct and a regulatory body to
which you can appeal if professional norms are violated. So all we need is somebody like
Editors's Guild, NBA, Advertiser's Council- somebody needs to step in.”55
Currently in India opinion polls is banned 48 hours prior to voting. The ban on opinion
has been sought on the grounds that the polls confuse the voter, thereby affecting the
sanctity of the process. What is the provision regarding opinion polls in other parts of the
world, a look at other countries and poll surveys, In united states of America there is no
legal restrictions on either the publication of pre-election opinion polls or exit polls. And
in UK also no restrictions on the publication of pre-election surveys, although the
publication of exit polls taken before voting closes is prohibited by the Representation of
the People Act (Amendment), 2000. In Scandinavian countries there are no formal legal
restrictions against the publication of elect oral survey results during an election
campaign. In practice, however, no media organisation publishes poll results later than a
day before the election, and exit poll results are not published until all polling stations
have closed. In South Africa also no prohibition on the publication of electoral survey
results prior to an election. Exit polls, however, are banned by the 1998 Electoral Act. In
Bulgaria the law prohibits the publication of new electoral survey results at any point
during the last 14 days of the election campaign, and also on Election Day. In Italy a
prohibition on the publication of opinion polls begins 15 days before Election Day and
continues until the close of voting. In Russia the publication of any electoral survey
results for five days prior to Election Day and on Election Day itself. Australia has no
legal restrictions on the publication of either pre-election opinion polls or–with the
exception of Victoria–exit polls. Reportedly, the media rarely use exit polls due to

CHAPTER 4
experiences with erroneous results and the increased speed at which results are delivered.
In Canada Public opinion surveys assumed immense importance in the 1980s. It is now
prohibited to publish the results of opinion surveys that identify specific political parties
or candidates in the final three days before a poll closes. 56
Despite opposition from the pollsters the election commission of India banned the exit
polls in elections in India, but not succeeded to ban on opinion polls, the proposal in this
regard is pending. Chief Election Commissioner V.S.Sampath on the question of
disappointment over not banning the opinion polls replied “ it‟s not a matter of
disappointment and repentance. We are doing our duty. What we should do we are doing,
it is lawmakers work to take decision on it.”57
4.8 CONCLUSION
Opinion polls seen to be an unavoidable evil in modern day elections. Millions of rupees
are spent to gauge the opinions of the electorate on varying issues before elections.
Whether people change their decision after knowing the findings of the pre-poll opinion
i.e. whether they follow the „bandwagon effect‟ or „underdog‟ effect not much serious
work seems to have been done in any of democracies under study. Though it is a matter
of serious concern but will it suit the opinion poll agencies to conduct such studies.
Do opinion polls play a decisive role in elections? Is their power in politics a reality, an
exaggeration or a myth? While no definition answers are in sight, politics over the years
has become a booming business. Polls can go wrong and have gone wrong a number of
times. Dr. Gallup who pioneered opinion polling who made a reputation in 1936 by
correctly predicting president Roosevelt‟s re-election his forecast had a large error than
the prediction he made later.
Dr.BhaskarRao, a leading pollster in India, a student of Dr. Gall up say emphatically “I

am a critic of the polls; opinion polls are supposed to help making an intelligent, a better
choice a better decision. That‟s looking beyond temporal things. But we have reduced
them to a commercial exercise.” The challenges in conducting election surveys in India
arise from a variety of reasons like the geographical span of the country, the highest
number of electorates in the world, the existing socio-cultural and demographic

CHAPTER 4
diversities, proliferation of political parties, the changing nature of party competition, and
the rapidly changing domain knowledge and technology for polling around the world.
Unlike countries in the western world, where the nature of the electorate is homogenous,
voters in India are highly heterogeneous with a wide range of diversity in terms of region,
and non-homogenous character of the Indian electorate poses a big challenge for studying
the opinion and attitudes of the voters with reasonable confidence. The poll surveys in
most democratic countries is not a very complex task as the electoral competition is
limited to two dominant parties based on the bi-party system. On the other hand,
independent India‟s experiment with electoral politics was based on the multiparty
system.58
However this is not the place to get into a detailed assessment of the accuracy or
otherwise of opinion polls in India, but let me just note that contrary to popular
impressions the overall record of Indian pollsters is not bad by international standards. Of
late we have seen some really bad forecasts, but these have been cases of poor
professionalism and not of political manipulation. By and large, most of the agencies and
media houses involved in this exercise have . The analysis of 24 elections exit polls
results also show that the record of pollsters are not so bad but they need to improvise
their techniques so that the chances of errors can be minimized. Opinion polls have come
to stay in India and all things considered need not be banned; people sit glued to their TV
sets on the eve of every election curious to know who will be their chosen
representatives. It is imperative that Indian agencies conducting opinion polls constantly
innovate and improvise their research methodology for bridging the gap between
forecasts and actual results. Then alone opinion polls get better credibility and
acceptance.

CHAPTER 4
REFERENCES
1. Sanjay Kumar and Praveen Rai, Measuring Voting Behaviour in India, pp.15-16
2. David Butler, Ashok Lahiri, Prannoy Roy, India Decides,Elections 1952-1995,pp.
1
3. Ibid., pp.41
41
6. Ibid.
7. Ibid., pp.5
8. Ibid., pp. 39
9. Ibid.
10. Ibid.
11. Ibid.
12. Angus Campbell et.Al.eds, Elections and the Political Order, pp. 40-62
14. Ibid., pp.22
15. Ibid., pp.23
41
17. http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-opinion-and-exit-polls-cannot-have-the-
last-word-on-poll-outcome-1914797...
18. the pioneer, 16,MAY 2004
19. http://www.hindu.com/2009/05/14/stories/2009051457840100.htm/ Election
Commission Of India
20. http://www.india.com/election-2014/parties/aam-aadmi-party/lok-sabha-elections-
2014-exit-poll-results-19422/Election Commission of India
21. Wikipedia, Maharashtra Assembly Election, 2004
22. Wikipedia, Maharashtra Assembly Election, 2009
23. Indian express, 26 Feb, 2002
24. http://www.dancewithshadows.com/politics/up-exit-polls.asp
25. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uttar_Pradesh_Legislative_Assembly_election,_201
2#Opinion_polls/ Election Commission Of India
26. Indian express, 26 Feb, 2002
27. http://www.hindustantimes.com/punjab/chandigarh/4--exit-polls-give-an-edge-to-
congress-in-punjab/article1-820349.aspx/ELECTION
28. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerala_Legislative_Assembly_election,_2011#Post-
poll_surveys/ELECTION COMMISSION OF INDIA
29. http://electionaffairs.com/karnataka/assembly_elections_2013/exit_poll_karnatak
a_assembly_elections_2013.php
30. Exit polls results: Bihar election 2010, 20th Nov, 2010,
31. Ibn politicsa website, 23 Dec, 2007
32. http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-12-
17/news/35868737_1_vote-share-polls-on-television-channels-seats/Election
Commission of India

CHAPTER 4
33. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamil_Nadu_Legislative_Assembly_election,_2006#
Exit_polls
34. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamil_Nadu_Legislative_Assembly_election,_2011#
Post-poll_surveys
35. http://electionaffairs.com/West%20Bengal/assembly_elections_2011/Exit_Poll_re
sults_West%20Bengal_Assembly_Elections_2011.html/Election Commission
36. http://electionaffairs.com/uttarakhand/state_assembly_elections_2012/exit_poll_r
esults_uttarakhand_Assembly_Elections_2012.html/ECI
37. http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-12-
17/news/35868737_1_vote-share-polls-on-television-channels-seats/Election
Commission Of India
38. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Assembly-elections-Exit-polls-point-to-
Congress-rout-in-four-states-vary-wildly-on-Delhi/articleshow/26869114.cms
40. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Assembly-elections-Exit-polls
42. Interview with Mr. Sanjay Kumar, Director, CSDS
44. Ibid.
45. Ibid., pp.26
46. http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/for-news-most-indian-voters-turn-
totv/article4964056.ece---Article written by PrashantJha.
47. interview with Ajay Singh, editor, governance now magazine...
48. interview with Shankar arnimesh, senior journalist with focus news
41-42
50. Sanjay Kumar and Praveen Rai, Measuring Voting Behaviour in India, pp.143
51. interview with S.Y.Quraishi, Former Chief Election Commissioner of India
52. http://eci.nic.in/eci_main/PROPOSED_ELECTORAL_REFORMS.pdf...
53. http://eci.nic.in/eci_main/recent/Exit_Polls.pdf.
54. http://newindianexpress.com/nation/EC-Ban-opinion-polls-from-notification-
day/2013/11/15/article1892695.ece
55. http://ibnlive.in.com/news/professional-code-of-conduct-for-opinion-polls-
necessary-aap/432252-80.html
56. http://www.indianexpress.com/news/opinion-polls/1175751/
57. Chief Election Commissioner V.S.Sampath, Interview by researcher.
58. Sanjay Kumar and Praveen Rai, Measuring Voting Behaviour in India, pp.143

THE PAID NEWS SYNDROME: IS IT
CUTTING INTO
THE ROOTS OF DEMOCRACY?
CHAPTER 5
THE PAID NEWS SYNDROME: IS IT CUTTING INTO THE ROOTS OF

DEMOCRACY
Paid news is a much hyped phenomenon nowdays. However before the 15 Loksabha
elections the trend for this was visible but in the 15th general election to the Loksabha in
2009, this disturbing trend was highlighted by the media that is payment of money by the
politicians to the media organization for their favorable coverage which is popularly
known as ‗paid news‘. Paid news or paid content are those articles in newspapers,
magazines and the electronic media, which indicate favorable conditions for the
institution that has paid for it. The news is much like an advertisement but without the ad
tag. This kind of news has been considered a serious malpractice since it deceives the
citizens, not letting them know that the news is, in fact, an advertisement. Secondly , the
payment modes usually violate tax laws and election spending laws. More seriously, it
has raised electoral concerns because the media has a direct influence on voters.
The Press Council of India(PCI) defines paid news as, “Any news or analysis appearing
in any media (Print and electronic) for a price in cash or kind as consideration.” For
democratic India, the media continuous to be acclaimed as the forth important pillars
after judiciary, parliament and bureaucratic set-up, but unfortunately a cancer in the form
of paid news has been diagnosed with the Indian media in the recent past. Millions of
rupees have been reportedly paid to media houses for paid news. 1
Dileep Mandal, Senior Journalist who worked on Paid news opined that ― This is very
bad because it affect the freedom of people in democracy. It affects the right of people to
choose because of wrong information in the shape of news, which is basically paid.
Earlier it was on the Entertainment and Business pages of newspapers, now it is on
political page. News was manipulated through reporters in early phases but after paid
news the chain of reporter is no more in the scene. Now media houses directly talk to
political parties and leaders on rate cards. We can say that small scale industry is now
institutional because earlier reporter there now media organization itself.‖2

CHAPTER 5
5.1 PAID NEWS: PAST AND PRESENT
What we are talking about paid news, it is not new at all and it was there in 19th century
as the form of Cheque Book Journalism. Infact the nexus of managing the news is not
new phenomenon in India, but paid news is a new form. Mitrokhin papers- the writings
of a former KGB agent, who worked for several years closely as an agent of the USSR,
bring out shocking details of funding by the KGB: ‗According to KGB files, by 1973, it
had ten Indian newspapers on its payroll(which cannot be identified for legal reasons) as
well as a press agency under its control. During 1972 the KGB claimed to have planted
3,789 articles in Indian newspaper-probably more than in any other country in the non-
communist world. According to its files, the number fell to 2,760 in 1973 but rose to
4486 in 1974 and 5510 in 1975. The paid news phenomenon which has come into
prominence and public discourse in the recent years was made fully operational by a
foreign intelligence agency in the crucial period of Indian political history in the 1970s. 3
Before the domination of Television in Mass Media there were many politicians who
don‘t bother about the media coverages. Many politicians said that they don‘t care media
and they can win without the media. The CM of Karnataka from 1972 to 1980 Devraj
Arsh use the word ‗invisible voter‘ to tease the media. He said that his voters are not
visible to media. Mr. Devraj proved this to win the Assembly election of 1978 with huge
margin. From LaluYadav to Kanshiram to Mayawati to Left leaders in West Bengal
proved their importance in politics despite ignorance of media. Before coming to the
National politics Lalu Yadav was not bother about managing media. But after taking the
charge of railway ministry he appointed an IAS officer unofficially to manage the media.
Before 2009 Loksabha election rail ministry increased the expenses on advertisement to
media around 50 crores.4 In 2003, Bennett Coleman and Co. Ltd started a‖ paid content‖
service called Medianet, which sent journalists to cover product launches or celebrity
related events for a fee. Its competitors pointed out that this practice blatantly violated
journalistic ethics, but the BCCL management claimed that it was acceptable given that
such ‗advertorials‘ appeared in the city-specific colour supplement on society trivia rather
than in the main newspaper itself. Medianet effectively institutionalized the phenomenon
of paid news, which involves paying newspapers and broadcasters for positive coverage.

CHAPTER 5
Disguised as news, it is more effective than simple advertising, as it misleads the reader
or viewer into thinking that the information or views being put out have been
independently obtained by the journalist.
The menace of paid news, which began on a small scale in the elections in 2004, assumed
frightening proportions in the elections in 2009, though it is still talked about somewhat
in muted tones. Rate cards or packages were given on plain sheets of paper that listed
rates for publications of editorial content that praised a particular candidate or criticized
his or her political opponents. Candidates who refused to comply with these conditions
were denied coverage. In its non-institutionalised forms, these practices are extremely
difficult to prove because the financial transactions occur without any official record.
News terminologies have been coined: ‗paid news‘, ‗news packages‘ and ‗private
treaties‘. Effectively by these terms, the distinction between advertisement and news is
sought to be blurred.5
Dilip Mandal in his book ‗Media ka Underworld‘ explained the reasons why cases of
paid news were emphatically emerged in year 2009. The nature of media in the year 2009
were following---
1. It was the year of global crisis to go, Indian media was also affected by it. The
relief package from the government was also continue in this year.
2. It was election year. UPA government was free from left and its ideology
pressure.
3. Year 2009 was the year of election and during election a lot of money was spend.
Before this the expense of elections commission on general elections was 1300
crore. An estimated expense of between 10 thousands to 50 thousands crore from
candidates and parties spent.
4. A big percent of above mentioned amount went to media houses. An estimated

one-fifth of the total estimated amount.
5. First time from media organizations representative approached candidates and

parties with coverage rate cards and paid news was discussed. 6

CHAPTER 5
Money power of politicians clearly enables them to acquire media power during
elections. Likewise, the propaganda power of media barons enables them to control or
acquire political power-both financially rewarding exercises. In one way, the media is
leading the charge in keeping the aam aadmi, who is much poorer than the elected
representatives, out of the electoral process.
The wealth of 543 MPs of the 15thloksabha are worth close to 28 billion and the 64 union
cabinet members from the LokSabha account for 5 billion. About two-thirds of MLAs in
Maharastra and three fourths in Haryana are millionaires. The links between wealth and
winning elections are thus firmer than ever before. P.Sainathha ―The average worth of a
loksabha MP is Rs. 1 million. But there are 74 MPs with serious criminal charges against
them whose wealth averages 60 million. That is average wealth of a cabinet minister is
around 75 million.7
In India Paid news phenomenon is widely prevalent in almost all states in the country,
except perhaps the two southern states of Tamilnadu and Kerala. And these two states
have not been afflicted by this cancer only bcoz the media is sharply divided in their
allegiance to the major political parties in the state.
The media has written so much about black money but herein the media itself is
becoming a party to such transactions. For a few honorable exceptions such as P. Sainath,
Prabhash Joshi and a few working journalists unions, the subject had remained from
public gaze till recently. Finally, the press council of India appointed a committee
comprising Pranjoy Guha Thakurta and K Sreenivas Reddy to go into the matter and
submit a report to the council. The PCI entrusted a subcommittee to write a report on paid
news. The report assembled circumstantial evidence and named leading newspapers that
had apparently received funds for publishing information, sought to be disguised as news,
in favour of particular individuals, including representatives of political parties who were
contesting elections. Owing to the influence of a powerful lobby of publishers in the
council, a highly watered-down version of the report was presented to the government.
However, the subcommittee‘s full report was leaked and is available on a number of
websites. Speaking in Indore on July 15, on the occasion of the 75th birth anniversary of
the late Prabhash Joshi, the Vice-President Hamid Ansari observed that the Press

CHAPTER 5
Council‘s ―inability to go public with its report on paid news is a pointer to the problems
of self-regulation and the ‗culture of silence‘ in the entire industry when it comes to self-
criticism‖.
Leaders of the Opposition in the LokSabha Sushma Swaraj said that the paid news
phenomenon had started out as an aberration, went of to become a disease and is now an
epidemic. She said she was not directly approached by media companies but her
campaign managers were.
5.2 PAID NEWS UNDERMINING DEMOCRACY: PRESS COUNCIL REPORT
The Press Council of India report on paid news found that the phenomenon of ‗paid news'
goes beyond the corruption of individual journalists and media companies. It has become
pervasive, structured and highly organised and in the process, is undermining democracy
in India. The report titled ―Paid News: How corruption in the Indian media undermines
Indian democracy.‖ It marshals a vast amount of material on the issue and is a
compendium of media malpractice. It explicitly names newspapers and channels —
including some of the biggest groups in the country — seen as having indulged in the
―paid news‖ practice. The report speaks of the ―deception or fraud‖ that paid news entails
as having three levels:
First, ―the reader of the publication or the viewer of the television programme is deceived
into believing that what is essentially an advertisement is in fact, independently produced
news content.‖
Second, ―By not officially declaring the expenditure incurred on planting ―paid news‖
items, the candidate standing for election violates the Conduct of Election Rules, 1961,
which are meant to be enforced by the Election Commission of India under the
Representation of the People Act, 1951.‖
And third, ―by not accounting for the money received from candidates, the concerned
media company or its representatives are violating the provisions of the Companies Act,
1956 as well as the Income Tax Act, 1961, among other laws.‖

CHAPTER 5
The report also says that the paid news phenomenon appears to be less pervasive in
statessuch as Kerala or Tamil Nadu, where the media is clearly divided along political
lines.‖8
The former Chief Election Commissioner of India S Y Quraishi said that election
commission can‘t control paid news during elections. Qureshi opines that Press Council
of India should set guidelines for the media and however electronic media is out of PCI‘s
ambit. To fulfill this lacunae, a special body need to be formed to cover all media.
5.3 PAID NEWS IN PARLIAMENT
It is easy to understand the seriousness of the problem of Paid news with the fact that
issue is discussed in the Indian parliament. Speaking in the LokSabha on March 3, 2010,
the then Leader of the Opposition and senior BJP leader Shri L.K. Advani said election
campaigns should be publicly funded while expressing concern about the phenomenon of
―paid news‖ which he described as a ―very serious issue‖. He said publications and
television channels should be made to account for the revenue generated from ―paid
news‖. In the Rajya Sabha the then Union Minister of Information and Broadcasting
Ambika Soni stated: ―In recent months, however, there have been a number of media
reports that sections of the electronic and print media have received monetary
considerations for publishing or broadcasting news in favour of particular individuals or
organizations or corporate entities, what is essentially ‗advertisements‘ disguised as
‗news‘. This has been commonly referred to as the ‗paid news syndrome‘. ―This
phenomenon of ‗paid news‘ is therefore, a serious matter as it influences the functioning
of a free press. …Thus, there is no denying the fact that there is an urgent need to protect
the right of citizens to correct and unbiased information. It is important that all sections of
society should introspect on this issue as it has wide-ranging implications for our
democratic structure.‖9
Leaders from all parties have raised concert to this serivous problem. Leader of CPM
ShriYechuri stated that ―paid news‖ was ―not merely a serious matter influencing the
functioning of a free press, but it is an issue that also concerns the future of parliamentary
democracy in India‖. He also reasoned how it is disorting the parliamentary democracy in

CHAPTER 5
multiple ways: (the) media ceases to be objective and, therefore, distorts public
perception; it distorts the electoral political choices of the people by providing undue
advantage to those candidates/political parties who are able to afford these packages, it
manipulates democracy, negating it completely by denying or by not providing equal
access to those who cannot afford to indulge in such malpractices thereby breaching the
provisions of the Constitution of India. Shri Arun Jaitley stated: ―… I completely share
the spirit and substance of what my friend, ShriYechury, said. I only disagree with him
partly on his suggestion of possible solutions. The menace has assumed such large
proportions that a solution cannot be to just deny them government advertisements. I
have read the statement of the Hon‘ble Minister, which is actually based on two premises
– first, that this constitutes free speech; second, that the Press Council of India, which I
would state is a toothless wonder, is already looking into the matter. And, therefore, both
these premises, that the Press Council of India is capable of finding a solution to this, and
that this is an expression of free speech, are fundamentally erroneous. If you look at the
menace of money power in elections over the last few years, it has grown
disproportionately. It is directly linked to the collection of funds for elections by
candidates and political parties and by state governments. This leads to increase of
political corruption. It pollutes the very stream of administration and public life in this
country. The volumes have grown.10
The standing committee of parliament has documented the trend of ‗paid news‘ in its
various forms and recommended content regulation by an empowered mechanism. The
committee also criticized the ministry of information and broadcasting for ―failing to
discharge its responsibility‖. The committee on information technology began examining
the issue of ‗paid news‘ in 2010. Three years later, it has concluded that the ―dangerous
trend of presenting information as paid news content‖ has spread at a remarkable pace in
sections of the media. ‗Paid news‘ has had a ―serious and damaging impact‖ on innocent
audiences; undermines democratic practices; affects markets, industry and health; is a tax
fraud; and a question of ethics.
In its most controversial remarks, the committee had dismissed self-regulations as an

eyewash, and recommended that a statutory body such as the Media Council be set up to

CHAPTER 5
look at ―media contents in both print and electronic media‖ with powers to take ―strong
actions‖. Alternatively, the press council could be revamped in case of print journalism
and a separate statutory body be set for the electronic media. It called for strengthening
election laws and empowering the Election Commission and asked the I$B Ministry to
act swiftly on issues of cross-media ownership. The committee found the existing
regulatory set-up dealing with paid news as inadequate. The committee recommended
establishment of either a single regulatory body for both print and electronic media or
enhancing punitive powers of the PCI and setting-up a similar statutory body for the
electronic media. Such regulators should have the power to take strong action against
offenders and should not include media owners/interested parties as members.
The committee recommended that the ECI should have the authority to take punitive
action against electoral candidates in cases of paid news. It endorsed the ECI‘s proposal
amendment to the RP act and urged the government to provide the ECI with more powers
to deal with paid news.
5.4 ELECTION COMMISSION OF INDIA AND PAID NEWS
To conduct free and fair elections is the main goal of Election Commission of India. But
practice of paid news is somewhere cutting the roots of our democracy. To
institutionalize paid news in print and electronic media to influence public opinion
especially during the elections is not a good trend. The phenomenon of paid news is seen
during the election time more. During this time the role of election commission is very
important to curb this menace. It is important here to see what election commission have
done to check paid news. First of all the election commission has decided to go by the
definition of Press Council of India as any news or analysis appearing in any media for a
price in cash or kind as consideration. 11
The practice of paid news has to be seen as an attempt to circumvent the provisions of
Sections 77 and 123 (6) of R.P. Act 1951 which prescribe accounting and ceiling of
election expenses and make exceeding such prescribed limits a corrupt practice in
elections. Election commission invited the attention of state chief electoral officers on
recent phenomenon of ‗Paid News‘. Several political parties and media groups have also

CHAPTER 5
conveyed their similar concerns to the Commission. There has been dialogue of several
stakeholders with the Commission at different platforms and there is near unanimity to
take necessary steps to put a halt to such mal-practice which puts undue influence on the
free will of the voters, encourages the role of money power in a covert manner and
disturbs level playing field in elections.
The Commission has directed that maximum vigilance may be observed by making use
of the existing provisions of law so that the incidence of ‗Paid News‘ or surrogate
advertisements in Print and Electronic media in the context of elections is arrested. The
cases of ‗Paid News‘ generally manifest in the forms of news articles/reports published
about a particular candidate or a party eulogising them, or similar news articles/reports
denigrating the opponents, both intended at unduly influencing the voters. The same or
similar type of news articles/ reportings (with cosmetic modifications) appearing in more
than one newspaper periodical would amount to further corroboration as circumstantial
evidence that such news publication could result from collusion of the candidate/party
with the editors, publishers, financers of the newspaper etc. Such collusion would,
however, have generally no transactional evidence of payment of consideration in
cash or kind.12
Apart from taking measures to stop paid news the election commission of India created a
in-house division to tackle paid news, money power. The ECI now has a very senior
Income Tax Department official heading its poll expenditure monitoring wing to check
the practice of ‗paid news' and other abuses of money power in elections. 13 The election
commission has proposed to amendment of law to make `paid news‘ an electoral
offence….commission has been proposed amendment in the Representation of People
Act, 1951, to provide therein that publishing and abetting the publishing of `paid news‘
for furthering the prospect of election of any candidate or for prejudicially affecting the
prospect of election of any candidate be made an electoral offence under chapter-III of
Part-VII of Representation of People Act,1951 with punishment of a minimum of two
years imprisonment.14

CHAPTER 5
The commission has take many Measures to check ‗Paid News‘ during elections i.e.
advertisement in garb of news in Media and related matters. After 2008 Commission
issued further guidelines to constitute Media Certification and Monitoring Committee
(MCMC) in each district during election period to take up the additional task of keeping a
check on the cases of Paid News.15
The Election Commission of India through its different initiatives have took serious note
of Paid news cases during elections. Few politicians are also facing the charges of giving
wrong information about their expenditure details to the commission. Among them the
case of Congress senior leader and former Maharashtra CM Ashok Chavan is much
publicized. The Election Commission of India has found him guilty in a case related to
his assembly election in 2009. After finding him guilty the commission had sent him
notice, which was stayed by High Court now. The finding of the commission, which
formed the basis of the showcause notice could pave the way for his disqualification as
an MP and bar him from contesting poll for thress years. It will be interesting to see what
the final outcome will be in this case but whatever the decision it is clear that serious note
from ECI to this is definetly helpful to curb the money use in elections and ‗paid news‘.
5.5 MENACE OF PAID NEWS-WHO WILL BELL THE CAT?
According to Dilip Mandal, Senior Journalist and writer of a book ‗Media ka

Underworld‘ on ‗Paid news‘ is not very optimistic about to stop this menace. He said ―it
can‘t be stopped but a something and small can be done. How can you say that some
particular story is Paid news. It is very tough to stop this. But the people and
organizations who are indulge in Paid news should be given less importance. If they will
lose the faith of readers and viewers then paid news will not exist.‖ 16 Question here is to
curb the paid news, who will bell the cat? In spite of huge support across society and
across the polity nothing much seems to have been done about ending the menace of paid
news, the reasons need to be seen in the mindset of the vested interests — the media
beneficiaries of the racket and the political players in the electoral field who place a high
value on propagandistic support in India's burgeoning mass media. This nexus needs to
be broken. At the same time, it must be realised that government intervention is likely to
do more harm than good in respect of media functioning. Pushing for effective self-

CHAPTER 5
regulation and publicly shaming the corrupt elements is the way to go — without losing
more time
The PCI report explores several ways to curb the menace of ―paid news‖. It seeks a far
more pro-active role from the Election Commission for instance. The report also calls for
giving regulatory bodies like the Press Council more teeth. It further appeals to media
organisations to adopt a number of principles that would curb ―paid news‖. However, it
recognises that self-regulation and civil society oversight, while welcome and useful, can
tackle the problem ―only to an extent‖. There would have to be effective use of existing
laws to ―apprehend those indulging in practices that are tantamount to committing a fraud
on the public‖.17
Senior Journalist with India T.V. Shamsher Singh gave practical views on paid news and
media ― There was a time when people used to accept reporting in media at its face value.
Now there is a general complain „Sab Beeke Hue Hain‟. Journalists who were earlier
respected are now viewed with disdain. And media houses are themselves responsible for
it. And if they want to redeem themselves and get back the lost glory then this practice of
paid news has to stop immediately.‖18
There is a need to have uniform regulations and guidelines for public and private as well
as print and electronic media to ensure a level playing field for all parties and candidates
during campaigning. A single initiative or measure cannot improve the situation. A
combination of efforts is required to install a system of ―checks and balances‖. This
includes self-regulation by the media itself and guidelines from professional bodies such
as academics, independent researchers, civil society groups and regulatory agencies like
the Press Council of India, the Information Commission, the Election Commission of
India and the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI).

CHAPTER 5
REFERENCES
1. Ashutosh Nandi, Cuttack, 24 Oct,2010, The times of India.

2. interview with Dileep Mandal, senior journalist and writer of the book ‗Media ka
Underworld‘ during June, 2011
3. Madhav Godbole, India‘s parliamentary democracy on trial, pp.258
4. Dilleep Mandal, ‗Media ka underworld‘, pp. 42
5. Madhav Godbole, India‘s parliamentary democracy on trial. 271
6. Ibid.
7. Hindu Newspaper, June 20, 2009.
8. Pci report retrived from http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/sainath/paid-
news-undermining-democracy-press-council-report/article407201.ece
9. http://www.newswatch.in/paid-news/%E2%80%9Cpaid-news%E2%80%9D-in-
parliament
parliament
11. instructions on election expenditure monitoring-march 2013, eci page-16
12. http://eci.nic.in/eci_main/CurrentElections/ECI_Instructions/ins15062010.pdf
13. hindu, October 8, 2010. http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/new-eci-
division-to-tackle-paid-news-money-power/article818518.ece
14. http://eci.nic.in/eci_main/electoral_ref.pdf
15. http://eci.nic.in/eci_main/CurrentElections/ECI_Instructions/PaidNewsGuidelines
27082012.pdf
16. interview with Dilip Mandal, senior journalist and the writer of the book ‗Media
ke Underworld‘ in 2011
17. http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/sainath/paid-news-undermining-
democracy-press-council-report/article407201.ece
18. interview with Shamsher Singh, Senior Journalist, India Television

RISE OF NEWS CHANNEL AND
ELECTIONS
CHAPTER 6
RISE OF NEWS CHANNEL AND ELECTIONS
The increasing influence of news channels in India was energized by economic

liberalization in early 1990s. It gave citizen access to news channels first in urban and
semi-urban areas and then from urban to rural areas. Infact not only the news channel, the
whole electronic media was stimulated by the post liberalization era. The rise of 24 hours
news channels gave citizen access to different sources as opposed to the sole government
regulated news channel of the pre-liberalization era.
In India and other post-colonial countries television often becomes the "compelling
medium for influencing a normative national consciousness of language, image and
sound, television reproduces a vision of the world for its audiences. These productions
link television with the political economy of nation building. The medium can work to
socialize people, foment material desires, and normalize consumer relations"(Ives, 2007,
p. 154). The broadcast media under state monopoly helped to tentatively bridge the gap
between a literate elite and the mass audience, to which print media, had formerly
catered. The emergence of the cable satellite television helped to narrow the gap between
literate elite and others, even further as it brought " market forces and the power of
television together by 1992".1 Satellite television news networks have never expanded as
they have in India. In less than a decade, between 1998 and 2006 India has experienced
the rise of more than 50 twenty-four hours satellite news channels. They are a prominent
part of a vibrant satellite television industry, comprising of more than 300 channels, that
has targeted Indian homes since the early 1990s.2
The numbers signify a much larger story. The rise of satellite television, and satellite
news networks, has engendered a transformation in India's political culture, the nature of
the state and expression of Indian nationhood. Much like India's 'newspaper revolution'
that started in the 1970s , and the 'cassette culture' of the 1980s, the availability of
privately procured satellite television has meant that people discovered new ways to think
about themselves and to participate in the politics that would have been unthinkable a
generation before.3

CHAPTER 6
6.1 EMERGENCE OF TELEVISION NEWS CHANNEL IN INDIA
The historiography of Indian television can be divided into the pre and post satellite
period. The story of the pre-satellite period is fairly simple: television was a cultural and
political instrument of the state, simultaneously implicit in the creation of a consumerist
middle class. Its various manifestations have found able chroniclers-from former
broadcasters to critical scholars like Purnima Mankekar and Arvind Rajagopal.
Mankekar's ethnographic and textual work for example, sketched he state attempted to
use television to create 'modern' nation and reinforce notions of the family and
womanhood, while also underlining television's close linkages with the creation of a
middle Class.4
Television was consciously turned into a mass medium in the 1980s as a

political/developmental strategy, kick started partly by the need to package it as India's
show-window on the international stage during the 1982 Asian Games in New Delhi.
Though the Doordarshan was an agent of the socialist state, it simultaneously
accommodated the steady growth of Indian capitalism, gradually turning commercial
from the late 1970s onwards with the introduction of advertising. The development of a
national television network in the 1980s, accompanied with television advertising,
augmented the creation of new consumer class and this formed the basis for a new notion
of collectively expressed as the middle class. Yet this makeover of Doordarshan and its
co-option by the forces of capitalism happened in strictly controlled conditions. News
programming remained a zealously guarded sanctum sanctorum, even though a great deal
of programming in genres like entertainment was farmed out to sponsors and private
producers. All programming, however, was subject to strict bureaucratic and political
control.5
Television first came to India by accident, not by planning. When the multinational
philips left behind some television equipment as a gift after an exhibition in New Delhi,
All India Radio used it to put together the first broadcast in September 1959, run by
professionals who were simply experimenting with the new equipment, the initial
broadcasts consisted of two one-hour transmissions a week. They were watched by
'telecubs' organised around the 21 gifted television sets that were installed within a 25-km

CHAPTER 6
radius in Delhi. UNESCO chipped in with a gift of 50 television sets and the Ford
foundation helped fund the first formal educational teleccasts for 250 schools around
Delhi on selected days of the week. The initial broadcasts reveal the motivations of the
programmers and their controllers: they were restricted only to four subjects- road sense,
food adulteration, care of public property and manners. It took another six years for a
regular daily one-hour service to appear. This began in 1965 with help from the West
German governments: transmissions consisted of news bulletins in hindi and agricultural
programmes for farmers. Regular news bulletins in english were introduced in 1971.
Television continued to be run as an of All India Radio until 1976.
India's television encounter of the 1960s remained a developmental exercise and a

curiosity restricted only to a few bureaucrats, politicians and a few select localities in
Delhi. For the rest of India, television simply did not exist. The lone transmission from
Delhi operated on a weak signal and the state did not allow any infrastructure for the
development of the industry. When Nehru died in 1964, the country had a grand total of
58 licensed TV sets. The first Indian television factory opened only in 1969 in Kanpur,
and in indication of the minuscule size of the existing market, produced 1250 sets in first
year of manufacture.7
Till the early 1990s, television viewers in India could only watch programmes broadcast
by the state-owned Doordarshan (now part of the Prasar Bharati Corporation). Barely a
decade later, they have access to hundreds of television channels from all over the world,
most of them privately owned. In 1995, barely 20 million television set owning
households in the country had cable and satellite connections. This number has since
gone up five-fold to around 100 million households.
The first India-based private television channel to enter the news space, Zee News, began
operations somewhat tentatively in 1994. At present, India is the only country in the
world with over four dozen 24-hour television channels that broadcast news and current
affairs programmes in over a dozen languages, including nearly 20 channels in the most
widely spoken language: Hindi.

CHAPTER 6
6.2. MEDIA COVERAGES OF THE ELECTIONS THROUGH THE AGES AND

HEIGHTENED ROLE NOW
Indira Gandhi's ascent to power in 1966 marked a change in the state's relationships with
television. Most studies of this period agree that, for a variety of reasons, Indira Gandhi
understood the potential of television as a mass medium far more than any of her political
contemporaries. In this context, Sevanti Ninan has noted an old joke about India's first
three prime ministers: ' Nehru was a visionary, Lal Bahadur Shashtri a revisionary and
Indira gandhi a televisionary'. Indira Gandhi kickstarted the process that turned television
into a mass medium. She separated television from radio, initiated the indigenous indian
satellite programme that was to become the backbone of the national television network,
allowed the entry of colours television- with incentives for television manufacture-and
introduced television advertising.
The policy changes were based on two reasons: faith in developmental communication
and her discovery of television as a political tool. As one critic wrote just after the
emergency, 'Mrs Gandhi didn't givt it much importance... until she discovered what a
powerful weapon it could be both for offence and defence'. Indira gandhi's policies bear
this out. As she turned Nehru's lofty but flawed ideal of centralised planning into dogma,
inserting socialism into the constitution and unleashing a new brand of populist politics to
successfully break the power of the congress hierarchy, she saw the potential for using
television as the state's visual messenger. In essence, this was based on what has been
called the hypodermic needle model, so dear to soviet style planners. Television was to
be the syringe that would deliver the required medicine into society, the assumption being
that it would be accepted unquestionably by every host. Of course, communication
studies from the 1970s onwards have shown that television reception works in much
more complex ways and that different people interpret the same messages differently
based on their individual circumstances, but this was not allow how the Indian state
understood television.As minister for information and broadcasting in 1964, Indira
Gandhi injected new energy into broadcasting and instituted the first official inquiry into
the state of Indian broadcasting. She was the prime minister by the time this inquiry, the
Chanda committee, recommended whole scale changes to the broadcasting structure and

CHAPTER 6
a rapid expansion of television, blaming insufficient funding of mass media for tthe
inadequate information, poor motivation and insufficient participation of the masses in
the country's development'.8
But it also questioned the government's stranglehold on the medium; prominent among
its 219 recommendations was one that called for the setting up of an autonomous national
television service. The demand for autonomy, however, was always resisted with the twin
arguments that national interest and the imperative of development necessitated control
over powerfull media like television. 9 In practice, though, the state was indistinguishable
from the ruling party and the all india radio code, adopted in 1968, forbade criticism of
various entities, including any state government, political party and friendly countries. 10
It was a governmental straitjacket that further reinforced the role of broadcasting as the
government's propaganda service. The expansion of television began in earnest only
during the emergency. Television had been restricted to the Delhi area until as late as
1972 when a TV transmitter was set up in Bombay, followed by strategic transmitters in
the border cities of Amritsar and Srinagar in 1973. This was a security measure in
response to Pakistan television, whose signals could be received in these border areas.
The Srinagar's station's broadcasts also covered parts of Kashmir under Pakistan control.
This was still nowhere near a national presence and the first semblance of a symbolic
India-wide network emerged only in the first year of the Emergency, with the setting up
of new stations in Lucknow, Madras and Calcutta in 1975. With severe censorship
imposed upon the print media, the Indira government saw broadcasting as a crucial tool
to direct public opinion. Her son Sanjay Gandhi, who did not have any official position in
the government, became a regular fixture on television. In 1977, in a celebrated case, the
Delhi station was ordered to screen the bollywood blockbuster Bobby to deter crowds
from attending an opposition rally. The rally still drew supporters and Indira Gandhi was
swept out of power but her political imperatives laid the foundation of a truly national
network.
At the height of the Emergency in 1976 three important things happened; television was
separated from All India Radio and put under a new entity called Doordarshan, though it
remained under the control of the ministry of information and broadcasting; the

CHAPTER 6
government reduced excise duties on television sets which encouraged local manufacture;
and for the first time advertising was allowed on television. All three measures spurred
television's expansion. The creation of Doordarshan meant the recognition of television
as a separate medium from radio and the easing duties led to a spurt in production of
television sets. From just one company producing 1250 sets in 1969 India had progressed
to 40 companies making a quarter of a million by 1977. 11
Television became a mass medium in India only during the 1980s. Three factors
contributed to this : the creation of a national network of transmitters linked with satellite
technology; Doordarshan commercialisation and resultant focus on entertainment; and
economic reforms that made television sets cheaper. The Initial years Election
Campaigns in India after the independence involved print advertisements inviting the
voters, in a manner similar to inviting one to their wedding. The personal care taken by
each of the politicians is also evident from them apologising, on their inability to meet all
the people of the constituency.Congress in the initial years utilized the brand
‘Independence Struggle’ to their fullest advantage. This brand image was too difficult for
the competing parties to reckon with. In 1984 the elections battleground witnessed an
advertisement firm aiding one of the competing parties namely Congress. Most
advertisements were aimed at disparaging the opposition, rather than proclaiming their
role if elected. The factors like greed and lack of unity were highlighted to put the
competitors in bad light. The bad will against some party has played a major role in
electing the new government.
In the era of 24 hours news channel in India first time during election time people saw a
large scale implementation of advertising in 2004 general election. The BJP’s India
Shining campaign was all set to take the mass off their feet. The party or the NDA
government main objective was to expose the audience as much as possible to acquire
their mindshare. They were successful as everybody was talking about it. This campaign
would have succeeded if not for the counter campaign of Congress and a difference of
opinion emerged from the media. The Congress highlighted the flaws in their campaign
and emphasised that ‘aam aadmi’ was no better off than he was 5 years ago. This is an
example where lack of integrated marketing communication especially the

CHAPTER 6
communication from the media has led to the downfall of the party concerned. The
Congress with the help of Orchard advertising came up with a campaign that questioned
the BJP the basis of the campaign, highlighting the lack of progress in the critical mass.
The campaign aimed at capturing the mindshare of the public and for doing the same they
had to eliminate BJP. The lack of colours in the campaign and taglines like ‘Congress ka
haath aam aadmi ke saath’ reinforced the lack of feel good factor. Their campaign
promised the aam aadmi a better and brighter future. This being a very late retaliation,
BJP did not expect this to have great bearing on the election result and neither did the
media. The exit polls predicted a BJP win but the end result saw Congress as the runaway
winner.
The 2009 general elections was not devoid of the same. But the new side to the campaign
scenario in 2009 is the greater involvement of advertising agencies. With the increased
use of internet, mobile phone, television, the campaigning methodologies are also
changing. With the changing demography and increasing use of mobile phones and
internet, the means of reaching voters is getting modified drastically. Other electronic
mass medium or social media also got their place in the election campaigning apart from
television channels.
In 2009 Congress has been the early bird as it shortlisted India’s biggest advertising
agency, JWT, and a smaller Delhi-based firm with the experience of handling several
political accounts, including the BJP’s 2004 polls campaign, Crayon. The slogan “Aam
admi ke badte kadam, har kadam par Bharat bulund “targets the common man. The
emphasis they lay on common man is bound to sway the masses. The most recent of their
campaigns is the ‘Jai Ho’ advertisement. Their means of reaching the target audience has
been through the click of mouse by using of social networking sites like orkut, facebook
etc to drive traffic to the video on the youtube website. This is the means; the Congress
has adopted to connect with the youth of the country whose number has been constantly
increasing year after year. To counter the ‘Jai Ho’ campaign of Congress, BJP appointed
Simoes-Tag and Utopia to carry forward its ‘Majboot Neta Nirnayak Sarkar’ poll
campaign. When election results announced congress led UPA emerged with a majority
marks and BJP led NDA was distant runner-up.12

CHAPTER 6
6.3 SURVEY RESEARCH
The importance and impact of 'fourth estate' in any democracy is well-known. In Indian
democracy also since we experimented with the governance of this type, the media has
played an important role. In mass media there are many new components of
communication has been added in recent years. What media professionals, who also
happens to be voters, think about the role of media in present day and opinion poll
surveys in elections? To know the impact of mass media in elections among media
professionals in this research 400 media professionals surveyed by me of different age
group from print and electronic media. A set of 20 close-ended questions were asked to
all of them. The focus of the study and hypothesis of research is based on opinion poll
surveys in India, so many questions were related to opinion surveys.

CHAPTER 6
1. Do opinion polls have decisive role in election outcome? Out of 400 respondents,
35% said that opinion polls have decisive role in election outcome and 33% said
no. However 28 % were not fully agree with the statement and rest of 5 percent
were not in position to decide. In India questions have been raised on the opinion
polls outcome in predicting election results since long. The respondents reactions
suggests that a major part of respondents accept the role of opinion polls in
elections results but 60 percent are in the two group of rejecting the statement and
were not fully agree.
Figure 6.3.1: Respondents on Role of Opinion poll surveys
It means majority of respondents don’t see opinion polls in Indian elections as decisive
factor and it doesn’t affect the actual outcome of the election decisively.

CHAPTER 6
2. Do media play role in influencing views on opinion poll surveys, more than half
of the respondents said yes. 52 % said during elections media influence their
opinion and 35 said no. It is clear that in democracy and during elections media
play a major role in making the opinion.
DO MEDIA INFLUENCE YOUR VIEWS ON

OPINION POLL SURVEYS DURING ELECTIONS?
3%
10%
A
52% B
35%
C
D
Figure 6.3.2: Respondents on Media’s influence on opinion poll

CHAPTER 6
3. In comparison to western democracies, in Indian democracy the opinion polls

have not make their positive mark on the voters. Many reasons for this as our
democracy has different features. 40% media professionals said that in India
opinion poll surveys are successful and 28 said no. 20 percent were not fully
agree and 12 percent were not in position to say.
Fig 6.3.3 : Respondents on opinion poll surveys in India
Due to existence of plethora of political parties and fragmentation of electorate it

is very hard to capture the mood of the voters in any particular election. The
dynamics of urban-rural divide also plays a major role in upsetting calculations.

CHAPTER 6
4. Should opinion polls survey in India continued? Election commission of India has
already banned exit polls till the last phase of elections and also sent proposals to
ban opinion polls from the date of elections notification. But it is interesting that
despite of many failures of opinion poll surveys, respondents are not in favour of
banning it. 70 percent said it should be continued and 22.5 percent were in favour
of banning it. The reasons behind this answer may be many, but one is that in
India election is like festival and opinion polls survey results is one of the festive
character of it. The voters of India don't want to loose any character of democracy
festival.
Fig 6.3.4: Respondents on continuation of opinion polls
Media see opinion poll surveys results as a major news issue for newspapers and
news channels, so it is obvious that majority of respondents were in favour of
continuing with the surveys during elections.

CHAPTER 6
5. Opinion polls are affected by the biases of agency or groups who conduct polls?
Majority of respondents said yes. 75 percent said that polls survey results are
affected by the biases of agency. Critics of opinion polls also give these reasons to
prove their points, even general perception is developing towards opinion surveys
that surveys are leaned to particular party or alliance sometimes.
Figure 6.3.5: Respondents on Opinion polls biases

CHAPTER 6
6. Political parties who get positive results may get advantage through the survey
results. This type of effect on possible results is called the bandwagon effect.
Election Commission of India have also gave it as a reasons to ban opinion
surveys, commission has argued that due to surveys results the level playing
purpose of commission to conduct elections are dented.
Figure 6.3.6: Respondents on Bandwagon effect on Opinion poll
A majority of respondents feel that opinion polls surveys affect the opinion of
voters. Sixty-Six percent said yes and Twenty-One percent said no.

CHAPTER 6
7. Do opinion poll surveys need social researcher to conduct the surveys, on this
particular questions more than 90 percent media professionals yes. It means that
maximum respondents feel that social researcher can improve the quality of
surveys during elections and the outcome will be more accurate than now.
Figure 6.3.7 : Respondents on opinion polls and Its techniques
There is growing demand from the political experts also that opinion poll surveys
sample size should be scientific so that it can be able to predict the outcome close
to the actual results.

CHAPTER 6
8. Media organizations don't favour to ban opinion polls in elections. When question
was asked on media loving opinion polls, 92.5 percent respondents said yes.
Basically opinion polls provide more news item to the news channels. News
channels got lot of details through the survey results and they air programmes and
news items, which fulfill the time space of news channels and also a TRP getting
item during elections.
MEDIA LOVE OPINION POLLS? DO YOU AGREE?
3% 3%1%
A
B
C
D
93%
Figure 6.3.8 : Respondents on Media and Opinion polls

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9. Do opinion polls play a fifth estate role in democracy during elections. Maximum
respondents said no. 55 percent said no and 17.5 percent were not fully agree.
Only 20 percent said in favour of the statement.
Fig 6.3.9: Respondents on opinion polls as a fifth estate

CHAPTER 6
10. Indian democracy has matured in last 65 years and media played an important
role in deepening the democracy. Do media should endorse political parties in
India like Britain, maximum media professionals were not in favour of this type
of role of media. More than 75 percent said no.
Fig 6.3.10: Respondents on media endorsing political parties

CHAPTER 6
11. However maximum respondents not in favour of endorsing political parties by

media, but more than 75 percent of them also not happy with the media during
elections campaign because majority of respondents think grassroot issues don't
get priority in media coverage during election time.
Fig 6.3.11: Media and issues in elections

CHAPTER 6
12. After emergence of news channels the interaction between voters and political
parties have increased. Eighty percent said during the era of 24 hours news
channel, the news channels enabled the voters of that category who were illiterate,
not able to read newspapers to know the policies and programmes of political
parties through their daily activities, through spokespersons.
Fig 6.3.12 : Respondents on Interactions between voters and poltical parties

CHAPTER 6
13. Media playing effective role during elections. Around Seventy-Five percent said
yes.
Fig 6.3.13: Respondents on effectiveness of Media
However a minority section of respondents don’t accept the effective role of media,
but it is clear that since independence and first general election to last one media have
played crucial role by informing people about the issues and other election related
materials.

CHAPTER 6
14. In 2009 general elections and in few assembly elections paid news emerged as a
threat for democracy. Even media professional also have a majority view that the
menace should be discontinued. More than Seventy-Five were in favour of
discontinuing with this.
Fig 6.3.14: Respondents on Paid news
Basically paid news is big threat to democracy in form of news. And it is time to
take call but question is can we able to get out from this menace?

CHAPTER 6
15. Television is still have to fully covered the rural part of India, so the news
channels.
Fig 6.3.15: Respondents on Media and Rural-Urban divide
Eighty percent of the respondents not happy with the role of media for rural areas
as they think that media is far more oriented to urban issues and rural issues are
not get priority in the news.

CHAPTER 6
16. Eighty-Five percent of respondents said media organizations have many types of
biases inside or outside the organizations.
Fig 6.3.16: Respondents on biases in Media
In covering news media professionals and media organizations pre-determined

with many type of biases.

CHAPTER 6
17. All media professional have work pressure during their daily activities. 88
percent of them said they work under pressure.
Fig 6.3.17: Respondents on work pressure in Media

CHAPTER 6
18. Also around the 85 percent of respondents said they also work under the pressure
of management.
Fig 6.3.18: Respondents on Management pressure in Media

CHAPTER 6
19. Media value the commercial concern more than the public concern. Seventy-
Five percent of respondents said media value the commercial concern more.
Fig 6.3.19: Respondents on Media Commercial Concern

CHAPTER 6
20. Media institutions not provide according to the time and demand of organization.
Institutions are more academic than practical knowledge. Around 70 percent said
on this statement.
Fig 6.3.20: Respondents on Media institutions

CHAPTER 6
6.4 RESULTS
Out of 20 close-ended questions nine questions were on directly related to role and
functioning of media, nine were related to opinion polls(Pre-poll and exit polls) surveys
and one related to new phenomenon in the mass media which is known as paid news and
one related to media educational institutions. The question is always raised on the opinion
and exit polls in India that it effect the election outcome. After the analysis of nine
questions related to opinion polls survey it shows that opinion polls in India is not
attained the maturity in conducting the polls. However on the success of opinion polls in
India opinion is fractured but majority of people want it to continue with this practice
during elections. This is despite the fact that majority of respondents accepted the
negative points of opinion polls like; opinion polls are affected by the biases of agencies
who conduct polls, opinion polls have bandwagon effect on the voters, and opinion polls
agencies need to improve their techniques and social researchers should be used in this
surveys. It is hard to say what is the basic reasons that despite of accepting some negative
points of surveys, why respondents want to continue with it. One of the main reason may
be that the majority don’t want to do away with the surveys because it adds colour during
the season of elections. Second reason may be that respondents want that by improving
the surveys techniques there will be scope of predicting election results right. It is
because of one reason or many that majority want polls surveys to continue but one of the
reason is also that Indian media love opinion polls.
The analysis of 10 questions directly related to role and functioning of media shows that
at present mass media is playing effective role in Indian democracy and during Indian
elections. The effectivenss of media during elections seen in the context that after the
emergence of news channels the political parties and voters came close through the mass
media. Analysis also show some learning lessons for Indian media on few front that
during elections rural and grassroot issues are not taken up, people’s concern are ignored
by the media for the sake of commercial. There is need to change the functioning of
media organizations in context of biasness, management pressure and work pressure. The

CHAPTER 6
recent years phenomenon in media, known as paid news is rejected by the majority of
respondents. Paid news is not only the threat to democracy but it is also threat to the
credibility of mass media. In recent years mass media study and institutions has
flourished after the news channels growth, but it is time to change the style of education
in these organizations because this medium need practical knowledge of media.

CHAPTER 6
REFERENCES
1. Arvind Rajagopal, Politics after television, p.7(2004)

2. Nalin Mehta, India on television, pp.1
3. Ibid, pp.2-3
4. Ibid, pp.8-9
5. Ibid, pp.26-27
6. Ibid, pp.29-30
7. Ibid, pp.30-31
8. Ibid, pp.33
9. Arvind Rajagopal, politics after television, pp.77
10. Chatterjee, Broadcasting in India, pp.104-105
11. Page and Crawley, Satellites over South Asia, New Delhi, pp. 56
12. http://iims-markathon.blogspot.com/2009/05/indian-election-campaigning.html

INTERPRETATIONS AND
CONCLUSIONS
CHAPTER 7
INTERPRETATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS
India would not be able to describe itself as the world’s largest democracy without the
existence of an independent media. The mass media in India often reflects the diversity
and plurality of the country, especially when General Elections take place. Not once but
again and again in the history of Indian democracy mass media has proved its potential.
That’s why democracy has stood the test of times among all systems of governance. In
the any era of history information has been reckoned as power and it is assumed that
those who control the information control the destiny of any nations. Freedom of media is
necessary for any democracy to major its extent in the society. Election constitute an
important feature and function of democracy and it has been an issue of research and
concern in the last few decades that what role media play during election.
Allegations of caste politics, communal politics, partisan politics, criminalization of

politics and money and muscle power in politics- despite of all this the basic faith in
democracy has sustained in all sections of the society. Faith in democracy is inherent in
the voters of Indian democracy. It should be noted that in last General Election in 2014
and in many states Assemblies Elections during last few years the voter turnout has
increased in comparison to last one and many of states have recorded all time turnout.
The recently concluded General Elections recorded the all time voter turnout of more
than 66 percent after independence in any Loksabha Election.
Our democracy and politics have many negative side but our electorate always demands
transparency and accountability. However many winning factors work in favour of a
candidate, sometimes personalities and charisma also work in favour of party and
candidate. The word committed and loyal vote banks in Indian elections is eroding its
base. The recent Loksabha Election of 2014 has proved it with the fact that identity based
parties got defeated in their regions despite of their support base in particular community.
It is also clear with the recent election is that non-developmental issues will not favour
any party until the party has worked on the developmental front. Infact in the era of mass
media and 24 hours news channels also not take up the non-developmental issues which
do not appeal to the 21st century voters of India, among which youth has a good

CHAPTER 7
proportion. It’s a good sign for Indian democracy that country is heading towards right
path of politics. It’s a matter of research that which type of governments suits better to
our diverse country, but it is clear from the experience of 67 years of democracy in India
that Indian electorate do their best to select best among the existing parties and alliances.
After the dominance of Congress party for 30 years since the independence of our
country in 1947 till 1977, the era of coalitions began in India in 1977, despite the
experiment miserable, the country has witnessed coalition in 1989, 1996 and in 1998. The
BJP-led government in centre from 1999 to 2004, which was the first non-congress
government to fulfilled its term, was also an alliance of small parties. The UPA and
UPA-2 government at the centre were also the Cong-led alliances. But it is noticeable
that in recent past in different state assembly elections the trend of giving mandate to one
party has been seen, which is a good sign for Indian democracy. It is also noticeable that
in 2009, the UPA alliance went on seats sharing but Congress managed to get more than
200 seats, first time for any and only party since 1991. The 2014 Genteral Election broke
the record of last three decades, Bharatiya Janata Party on its own managed to get the
majority mark of 272. The party won 282 seats, first time since 1984 election, which was
happened after the murder of then prime minister Indira Gandhi, any party got clear
mandate in Loksabha. Noticeable point is that BJP-led NDA got more than 300 seats and
ruling party was only able to get 44 seats. After elections three party lost their status of
national party. In multiparty democracies like India there are many other reasons why the
concept of committed vote bank is eroding. The impact of brand loyal or identity politics
vote bank is decreasing due to record voter turnout in election, which has been
established from the recent years election results. Infact due to high voter turnout the
impact of identity politics bank is decreasing and the mass media has played an important
role in increasing voter turnout high.
Since the emergence of 24 hours news channel in India since last decade of last century
and first decade of 21 st century the media played important role to connect the masses on
different issues, to their political leaders. The reach of television sets to new middle class
and rural part of the country helped to reach the voters who are not able to read. The
regionalization of newspapers were connecting the masses with their local issues since
long years. The increasing influence of electronic media stimulated it and the gave

CHAPTER 7
citizens access to numerous news sources as opposed to the sole government regulated
news channel of the pre–liberalization era.
Role of Mass media in Indian democracy has been the focal point of the researcher and
analysts for sometimes. The so-called dirty trick department of political parties have now
been replaced with highly educated professionals who specialize in communication
technology, media planning, strategy formulation and market research. The candidates
are packaged and sold in the market force as soaps and detergent, using fierce marketing
strategies. This all changes in the election management is due to liberalization of
economy and it affect on the Indian media. The growth of 24 hours news channels is also
the results of new economy and market. However the market force has involved some
undesirable and unwanted trend in the media and Indian democracy. Paid news is one of
them. Since 2009 General Election in India the word ‘paid news’ emerged as major threat
to democracy from the unholy alliance of politicians and few media organizations. It is
difficult to say which media is clean and clear and which one is fully involved in this
dirty game of manipulating election through the fourth estate of democracy, but this
phenomenon has affected the role of media during election. The emergence of regional
24 hours news channel and also regional edition of newspapers in different states in
recent years have spread this phenomenon more in assembly election than the national
election.
It is noted that in liberal democracies also the elections are going on American and in our
country also a lot of glamour and glitz is now being attached to election in new era of
mass media and due to new technology. The age-old institution of politics has taken
thousands of years to shape and mould itself but the media especially the mass media are
just a hundred odd years old. Thanks to technology through their reach and accessibility,
the media have created a lot of clout around themselves. The potential of mass media in
persuading and manipulating the public in taking decisions which they may not be
inclined to, had there been no mass media, is a subject matter of much academic
discussions and empirical research. Although there have been no definitive studies to
suggest that the voting decisions are based on mass media stimuli alone, one school of
thoughts believes that the individual is protected in two ways from direct ‘manipulation’

CHAPTER 7
by the media. On the one hand, media messages are received indirectly through the
opinion leaders. On the other hand, a number of research scholars feel the media set the
agenda during elections, by choosing which issues to highlight and which to ignore the
media, feel the critics, take on a partisan role. The ‘agenda setting’ theory has received a
lot of attentions by researchers. A number of studies do suggest that the issues in media
focus also become election issues. The syndrome of paid news which is visible during
election is the results of new era of mass media. It is time to take action against this
menace otherwise in coming years during election this phenomenon will have major
threat to the democratic set up of country.
If media had reported the matter objectively, if no better, the elections outcomes could be
different. The feeling about media objectivity is the major concern among scholars,
researchers and social scientists. There are number of researcher and analysts who
question the adequacy of mass media. According to them Mass media are inadequate
sources of information. They question its purity and adequacy. These researchers and
analysts do not accept mass media as the mirror of the society rather than the ‘flashlight’.
Hence, the audience do not get a complete image of the political scene. That’s why the
father of modern Journalism Walter Lippmann said ‘news and truth were not necessarily’
the same thing and needed to be clearly distinguished. In the world of news, however, the
issues are less deeply rooted. They flow from candidate, events and information.
Media must pick up people’s issues and focus on them during elections. There is a
growing disconnect between political masters and people and media should effectively
bring it out in open. Manifesto of any political party is an important document during
elections. But rather than going deep into it and analyzing that whether it reflects the
concern of the people or not , media tends to just gloss over important points and then
forget about it. However the role may be enhanced according to the demand of voters in
the age of information based society. But media role is not only to inform the electorate,
the responsibility of fourth estate is also to put the issues which is in the better interest of
country and democracy. The role of media as an agenda setter has transformed in the 24
hours news channels era. Earlier the active role as agenda setting of press was not visible
as now. Now the media set the agenda for the day, for the week, for the month. Now the

CHAPTER 7
election issues are not stick to one or two, it is fragmented in the era of mass media
because in market and driven and due to competition it is not possible for the media to
stick only on one issues.
The opinions about media can be divided broadly as of liberal functionalist and radical
functionalists. Both the schools of thought have propounded their views based on
empirical research and survey technique. Whereas the classical radical tradition sees the
media as agencies of mystification that ‘bend reality’ and engender false consciousness,
the liberal tradition assumes a much greater degree of affinity between media, reality and
the public. The media are assumed to reflect rather shape society.
The historian tradition argues that the mass media have changed society by modifying
time and place. The political tradition argues that even if media do not change the minds
of most of the voters, they have changed the political process. Modern media have
changed the conduct of elections, selection of political leaders.
Media bias especially in times of election in the democratic country is undeniable as

reflected in the analysis of various media messages, research studies and expert
comments on the subject. In India the feeling is that while the mainstream media are
liberal, the local and vernacular press by and large tend to favour the party in power.
India has the distinction of publishing the maximum number of newspapers.
Nation’s political agenda once set up by the political leaders was now decided by the
media who control which facets of politics will be reported and which ignored. Similarly,
candidate in the past needed the backing of the political parties to projet themselves but
the functions now is increasingly performed by the mass media.
It is also noted that in the satellite news channel age opinion polls have flourished like the
growth of 24 hours news channels in India. Do opinion polls affect the election outcome
it’s a subject of more empirical research but the experts, media professionals and political
leaders also believe that it affect the opinion of voters, who is not decided yet in favour
for any party or alliance. Another question raised on the opinion polls surveys are related
to their success rate. There is a perception in India that poll surveys always goes wrong.
But this study found different trend after the analysis of exit polls results and actual

CHAPTER 7
results. The trend is not as bad is as seen. The reason to see opinion polls as failure is that
in Loksabha elections the results were not near to the actual outcome except 2014
General Loksabha election. But positive side of opinion polls looked in the prediction of
state elections, despite of few worst and bad predictions the number of very good
predictions in state elections are high. Politics over the years has become a booming
business with hundreds of opinion polls held by various organizations, media and interest
groups at the time of an election. However in this study maximum respondents and
experts accept the bandwagon or underdog effect of opinion polls. Another area of
criticisms against opinion and exit polls has been that the discipline has gone from the
social scientist domain to the market researcher who probably were not adequately
equipped to handle serious matters as the political behavior of the masses. It is felt that
market researchers lack political sensitivity which is needed for a research of this kind.
If we go through the hypotheses of this study that mass media play an active role during
elections. It is noted that during the time of Independence and first General election the
print media dominance can be visible in elections also. And the trend was same till the
few years back when the 24 hours news channels came in the scene. However in all time
media was effective in the scene but the role of mass media changed in the era of
television media, electronic media and social media. During the time of print the
candidates had to focus on person to person contact in the run-up to the elections, the
political rallies were planned for the leaders of the political parties to reach the voters. All
these campaigning style is still exist during the election now in the era of mass media and
social media, but now mass media has become important tools for the political parties
and candidates to reach new voters. after television the major political parties appointed
television-styled politicians to face camera. Television news channel also helped in free
and fair elections. The incidents of booth capturing and violence during elections have
minimized. Actually, after the 24-hours news channel the scenario of politics changed.
Now in the time of social media the role of media has taken different shape now. Now the
parties and leaders have social media department to connect with the people and to reach
the electorate on different issues. It seems that media is more active today, however the
role has changed but the basic functions of media to inform and to educate the people is
still the same.

CHAPTER 7
The second hypotheses is also proved that in the age of new mass media the traditional
role of political parties and leaders to reach electorate has been usurped. However
traditional role is still working, it is the new role of media which has dominant in the
elections times.
Third and fourth hypotheses of the research is related to opinion polls surveys. There is a
perception that exit polls and opinion polls are failed in India. The experts and media
professionals also see it as below the average. Poll surveys are not free from the biases of
agencies and there is a need to improve the techniques of the surveys so that it can be
believed. However the analysis of the exit and actual results show the picture little
different in the favour of poll surveys. But no doubt that the surveys in India needs to be
change drastically to change the perception of the people of the largest democracy of the
world, because the people watch it closely during the election times.
From the analysis of the available literature and primary data it is also proved that paid
news is major threat to the level playing field of election. There is a timeless need to stop
this menace with the help of all institutions of democracy, so that the credibility of media
can’t be blamed.
Elections in India are just not a process to select the representative. It is a festival in the
world largest democracy of the world. And it is also reflected on the functioning of the
media. However Indian media are criticized for their obsession with politics and
elections, but the role of Indian media can’t be under estimate because in a country of
democratic set up like ours not everything but many things go through the way media is
covering the events.
7.1 LIMITATIONS AND FURTHER SCOPE OF THE STUDY
In western democracies a lot of research have been done on the role of media during
elections and its effect on the public opinion but in India it has still to go a long way. And
it was the main limitation of this research work that the literature related to this topic is
not available much. However positive side of the story is that after the Bachelor and
Master degree course started in Journalism and Mass Communication subject in the
different universities of India the research in this subject on different topics have started.

CHAPTER 7
In India and any democratic society of the world there can’t be democracy without free
and fair media. In this sense democracy and media are inter dependent. Media function
freely on its speech and expression only in a democracy. Both are necessary to each one.
Any democratic society expects that media will provide platform for the leaders to
communicate with large section of the society to encourage the diverse views of the
country. Scope are very much in the research in the field of media in India and hope in
coming years the different aspects of the subject will be touched by the researcher.

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13. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerala_Legislative_Assembly_election,_2011#Post-
poll_surveys/ELECTION COMMISSION OF INDIA
14. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamil_Nadu_Legislative_Assembly_election,_2006#E
xit_polls
15. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamil_Nadu_Legislative_Assembly_election,_2011#P
ost-poll_surveys

BIBLIOGRAPHY
16. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uttar_Pradesh_Legislative_Assembly_election,_2012#
Opinion_polls/SOURCE-ELECTION COMMISSION OF INDIA
17. http://EzineArticles.com/83168
18. http://ibnlive.in.com/news/professional-code-of-conduct-for-opinion-polls-
necessary-aap/432252-80.html
21. http://indiansaga.com/history/postindependence/elections.htm
22. http://newindianexpress.com/nation/EC-Ban-opinion-polls-from-notification-
day/2013/11/15/article1892695.ece
23. http://shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/17261/6/06_chapter%201.pdf…
24. http://shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/17261/6/06_chapter%201.pdf
27. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Assembly-elections-Exit-polls
29. http://www.aibd.org.my/node/1219
30. http://www.dancewithshadows.com/politics/up-exit-polls.asp
31. http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-opinion-and-exit-polls-cannot-have-the-last-
word-on-poll-outcome-1914797...

BIBLIOGRAPHY
32. http://www.hindustantimes.com/punjab/chandigarh/4--exit-polls-give-an-edge-to-
congress-in-punjab/article1-820349.aspx/ELECTION
33. http://www.india.com/election-2014/parties/aam-aadmi-party/lok-sabha-elections-
2014-exit-poll-results-19422/Election Commission of India
34. http://www.indianexpress.com/news/opinion-polls/1175751/
parliament
parliament
37. http://www.slideshare.net/iDebate/role-of-the-media-in-the-democratic-society
38. http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/for-news-most-indian-voters-turn-
totv/article4964056.ece---Article written by PrashantJha.
39. http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/sainath/paid-news-undermining-
democracy-press-council-report/article407201.ece
40. http://iims-markathon.blogspot.com/2009/05/indian-election-campaigning
41. http://www.hindu.com/2009/05/14/stories/2009051457840100.htm/ ELECTION

COMMISSION OF INDIA
42. hindu, October 8, 2010. http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/new-eci-division-

to-tackle-paid-news-money-power/article818518.ece
43. http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-12-17/news/35868737_1_vote-
share-polls-on-television-channels-seats/ELECTION COMMISSION OF INDIA
44. http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-12-17/news/35868737_1_vote-
share-polls-on-television-channels-seats/Election Commission Of India.

BIBLIOGRAPHY
INTERVIEWS
1. Interview with Chief Election Commissioner of India Mr. V.S.Sampath

2. Interview with former Chief Election Commissioner of India Mr. S.Y.Quraishi
3. Interview with Mr. Sanjay Kumar, Director, CSDS
4. Interview with Mr. Ajay Singh, Editor, Governance Now, Magazine
5. Interview with Mr. Pankaj Srivastava, Senior Journalist, IBN-7 News Channel
6. Interviw with Mr. Shankar Arnimesh, Senior Journalist, Focus News Channel
7. Interview with Mr.Shamsher Singh, Senior Journalist, India Tv News Channel
8. Interview with Mr. Sanjay Baragta, Senior Journalist, Aaj Tak News channel
9. Interview with Mr Dileep Mandal, Senior Journalist
10. Interview with Mr. Dinesh Gautam, Senior Journalist, Sahara Samay News Channel

APPENDICES
Questionnaire
Note: This questionnaire is related to the research on ‘Role of media in elections’.
The focus of study and the hypothesis of research is based on opinion poll surveys in
India, so out of 20 closed-ended questions maximum are related to opinion poll
surveys. Please give your opinion. It is confidential.
Name- Age-
Occupation/Designation- Experience-
Area- Contact no.-
1.Opinion polls have decisive role in election outcome? Do you agree?

1. Yes 2. No 3. Not fully agree 4. Can’t Say.
Answer-
2.Do media influences your views on opinion poll surveys during election ?
Answer-
3. Opinion poll surveys during elections in India are not successful?

Answer-
4.Opinion poll survey should be continued in India. Do you agree?

Answer-
5. Opinion polls are affected by the biases of agency or groups who conduct polls?
Answer-
6. Political parties who get positive results in pre-poll surveys can take advantage.
Do you agree?
Answer-
7. Opinion surveys need social researcher to conduct the surveys with proper
techniques?
Answer-
8. Media organization love opinion polls. Do you agree?

Answer-
9. Media referred as the fourth estate but some analysts reckon opinion polls as the
fifth estate. Do you agree?
Answer-
10. Media should endorse political parties during elections in India like Britain. Do
you agree?
Answer-
11.During election media involves itself in election campaign news rather than focus
on grassroot issues? Do you agree?
Answer-
12. After emergence of 24 hours news channel, the interaction between voters and
politcal parties have increased. Do you agree?
Answer-
13.Is media playing effective role during elections?

Answer-
14. Paid news concept should not exist in Media. Do you agree?
Answer-
15.Media is less rural concern than urban. Do you agree?

Answer-
16. Do you think media organizations have many types of biases inside or outside
the organization?
Answer-
17. Do you think reporters, news producer and anchors have more work pressure?
Answer-
18.Do you think reporters, news producer and anchors work under the pressure of
management?
Answer-
19. Media value the commercial concern more than the people’s concern during
elections.
Answer-
20. Do media instituitions provide education according to the time and demand of
organization?
Answer-
Thanks for response and giving me your valuable times.

Niraj kumar
V.S.SAMPATH, CHIEF ELECTION COMMISSIONER
1.Why 9 phase election in 2014 General Election. In 2009 it was in 5 phases, why 9 this
time?
V.S.Sampath--- It is not correct to say 9 phases, it is 9 poll days. You can’t compare
phases of last election with polling of this election. Poll days gives greater flexibility for
election management organization with regards to better utilization of resources.
2. Why Six-phase election in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh for the seats of 40 and 80
respectively. You don’t think it will affect on the voter enthusiasm to come and vote due
to polling on many phases?
V.S.Sampath--- As far as voter is concern it will not affect their enthusiasm. One voter
has to vote only one vote. It will beneficial for election machinery and political parties
also. It’s a win win for everybody. Five, six and eight are artificial numbers. Years back
there was poll dates in Indian election. When we do exercise on polling dates we do care
of weather and other things also.
3. In last five states assembly elections it was seen that many senior leaders violated the
Model Code of Conduct. Will you strongly deal this time on the cases of Model Code of
Conduct?
V.S. Sampath--- Model Code of Conduct is mainly for ensuring minimum standard in
campaignig. We had issued advisory to political parties, we have made an appeal to
political parties in this regard.
4. What’s your plan to increase voter turnout in Loksabha?
V.S.Sampath--- We have SVEEP measures. We will intensify it. We will give more
attention to electoral roll. Those who got left out from the electoral roll, we will give
them opportunity to add them in roll.
5. Do you think that high voter turnout will decrease the impact of caste, region, religion
based vote bank, which is called identity based vote bank?
V.S.Sampath--- Correct. When there is higher voter turnout the the impact of undue
influences and undesirable influences minimize.
6. Since 2004 Election Commission of India is trying to ban Opinion and Exit poll. Exit
poll is now banned since 2009, Opinion poll is not ban. Any disappointment over it that
ECI is not successful to ban it?
V.S.Sampath--- It’s not a matter of disappointment and repentance. We are doing our
duty. What we should do we are doing, it is lawmakers work to take decision on it.
V.S.SAMPATH, CHIEF ELECTION COMMISSIONER
7. You have increased the expenditure limits of 40 lakh to 70 lakh in parliamentary

elections. Do you think that in poverty based country like India it will not provide level
playing field.
V.S.Sampath--- There is conflicting and contradictory views. Some people are saying that
40 lakh is unrealistic. This is again response to request made by all political parties in the
all political parties meet to raise the limit.
8. What’s your appeal to political parties and voters.
.V.S.Sampath --- we have earned very good name in democratic credentials. We should
improve this credentials more. We have always requested political parties and leaders to
keep up the level of dignity of your campaigning. Our appeal once again would be
election come and go, people win people lose and that’s all different, but the rules of the
game have to be played fairly. We would request all the political parties to cooperate in
the largest interest of the democracy.
S.Y.QURAISHI, FORMER CHIEF ELECTION COMMISSIONER
1. General Election to Lok Sabha is the largest human management exercise in the
world. After every human efforts, do Election Commission of India also pray god for
success of this exercise?
S.Y.Quraishi --- God’s favour the brave. God help also include in our work.
2. In 2009 it was 5 phase election during your time in Election Commission of India as
an Election Commissioner. What do you think about the phases this time?
S.Y.Quraishi--- The reporting on newspapers and news channels is Kite flying about
phases of election. I don’t know on what basis they are saying this. But basic issue why
Election Commission of India conduct elections in multi phases. We take care of all
things and first among all is security. There is a security threats during election in our
country. We want that not a single life lost during elections. All political parties leaders
demand Para military forces in their constituencies because despite of competent local
police, question raises on them that they are working under political pressure. Five phase
will be definetly it may be six phase this time also.
3. How an exclusive phase will be helpful in naxal affected areas?
S.Y.Quraishi--- Earlier we focussed on easy going states first where election can be done
easily in terms of naxal and security threats. But after the experience of West Bengal
assembly elections 2011 where deployment of advance forces in naxal affected areas
were more helpful in election, ECI changed the strategy. It gives extra advantage to Para
military forces to understand the areas where they are deployed in naxal affected areas.
So now in few first phases we conduct elections on extremism affected areas exclusively.
4. How bureaucracy work very efficiently during elections.
S.Y.Quraishi--- It is noticeable that Indian bureaucracy which consider as incompetent

work very perfectionally during elections in the world largest human management
exercise. We identify bureaucrats who is not neutral. Zero tolerance in this.
5. Political parties don’t take model code of conduct seriously?
S.Y.Quraishi--- I am not with you that parties are not serious. If political parties were not
serious the election would be chaotic. Model code of conduct is effective, we can’t hang
who violates it. Model code of conduct has moral pressure. We should not forget that the
Model code of conduct initiative was started by political parties with the help of local
administration in keral in the 60s.
6. Do you think it will be correct to ban Opinion poll?

S.Y.QURAISHI, FORMER CHIEF ELECTION COMMISSIONER
S.Y.Quraishi--- Opinion poll may be paid. People say there is no significance difference
due to Opinion poll. What is the meaning of significant difference if one vote can be
affected by the wrong information. It is not fair with the process of election.
7. The vote percentage are increasing with every elections in last 5 years. What do you
think this time the voter turnout will be? And there is a difference between the voter
turnout in North and South India? How Election commission of India will address it?
S.Y.Quraishi--- I think the trend is established. According to me the voter turnout will
be between 65 to 70 percent. Voters are aware now, voter education has played an
important part in it.
8. How do you see this Loksabha Election ?
S.Y.Quraishi--- This will be the biggest election in the world. Voters will prove their
maturity in this election once again.
SANJAY KUMAR, DIRECTOR, CSDS
1. How do you see the prospect of opinion polls and exit polls in India?
Sanjay Kumar--- The prospects of Opinion poll and Exit poll are bright in a democratic
country like India due to regular elections. While candidates do spend time in their
constituency but they fine it difficult to assess people,s demands so large number of
candidates depend upon the opinion poll for gathering informtation about the
constituency problem. Parties use opinion poll to assess strength and weakness of
candidates before giving tickets.
2. If we talk about the Loksabha General Elections, do you think the 2014 GE exit polls
success will boost the morale of pollsters in India?
Sanjay Kumar--- Yes why not, most of the polls were correct in making the assessment
so there is every reason for the pollster to celebrate the conduct of exit poll and opinion
poll during the 2014 elections.
3. Tell me in details about the 1999 and 2004 exit polls results which is consider as a
worst in the history of Loksabha Exit Polls?
Sanjay Kumar--- The 2004 exit polls were considered worst as all the polls which
predicted BJP or NDA coming to power while it was the congress or the UPA which
came to power. This is the worst record of the exit polls in india. 1999 was not bad , it
was more or less in the range, at least it did not predict a wrong winner, the seats may be
less or more.
4. How do you compare the Exit polls of States assembly elections and Loksabha
elections in terms of Predicting the mood voters and number of seats?
Sanjay Kumar---It is much easier to make estimate of vote share or seat if the parties in
political contest are few, naturally in state assembly elections the parties are limited while
in national elections there are various parties which contest election, so it is easier to
estimate vote and seat in state assembly elections compared to Loksabha elections. Also
it is much easier for states which witness bi polar contest compared to states which
witness multipolar contests.
5. It also seems that in major multiparty states, exit and opinion polls got wrong? What
do you think?
Sanjay Kumar---Yes in multi party contest, if there are various parties contesting election
estimating vote share is much more difficult to compared if there are only two parties.
We need a much bigger sample if more parties are contesting elections.
AJAY SINGH, EDITOR,GOVERNANCE NOW
1. What’s your view on Opinion Polls?
A.S.- It’s a tool. Basically it’s a tool to know the mood of the people during elections.
What people think we can know to use this tool. It is OK.
2. Do you think Opinion Poll play any decisive role in the outcome of the election
results?
A.S.- I don’t think that opinion poll play any decisive role in the outcome of the election
results. Of course, Opinion Polls have a kind of effect on news level, on the media. I
think people are by and large not affected by opinion polls.
3. Why Opinion polls are not successful in India comparison to western democracy like
United States of America and Britain?
A.S.- There is homogeneity in western society, homogeneity in social structure. In

western democracy economic disparity, social disparity not occur, like in India. That’s
the reason opinion poll is not successful in India.
4. Do you think pollsters or poll agency change the actual results of opinion poll in
favour of any party?
A.S.- Yes, this is fact. Cant say for every pollsters. But I know the pollsters who changed
the percentage in favour of particular party.
5. Many questions raise on the continuity of pre-poll surveys in India. Do you think it
should be continued in India?
A.S.- I know it but what I think in the basis of my journalistic experience despite of
many pros and cons Pre-poll surveys should be continued.
6. What’s your take on new phenomenon of Paid news in the era of 24 hours news
television?
A.S.-Paid news concept is against the very existence of the media. It is in submersive
nature. If you are printing news by taking money, it is not good. It is subortive the very
existence of the Industry. Bahut Ganda hai.
PANKAJ SRIVASTAVA,JOURNALIST, IBN-7
1. What do you think on Pre-poll surveys in Indian elections?
P.S. --- Pre-poll survey or exit poll is not a good exercise. History of opinion poll survey is not
bright in India. Maximum election surveys were wrong in past except few. There is somewhere
ideological similarity between surveys and the current government. In 2004 election maximum
surveys were in favour of Atal-government, but during reporting I felt that Atal government is not
going to return. Some case was happened during the last U.P. assembly election. Poll-surveys
lack professional skills. People don’t openly answer to surveys questions.
2. Do you think media, the fourth estate of democracy is playing its role in India?
P.S.--- ’Fourth Estate’ term is a self-acclaimed word. I don’t think that Media is a ‘Fourth
Estate’. Yes, Media play the role of watchdog. Media is not free like the three pillars of
Democracy Opinion survey is only a part of media exercise, not more than this.
3. Is there biases in media organizations and opinion surveys?
P.S.--- Biases should be erased. There is biasness in media person. Personal thought
overshadowed the reality. There is need of real professionalism in media and surveys.
4. Do you think Media concern is more commercial than people’s concern?
P.S.---Media concern commercial more than anything. They also take care of people’s concern
but focus is on commercial.
5. What’s your take on the new phenomenon in the journalism called paid news?
P.S.---There is major credit loss to journalism because of paid news. Now you can by news. Paid
news is ‘Dhokha’ with news viewers.
6. Do you think media professionals work under the pressure?
P.S.---Media person lacks time to work on news. TV Reporters don’t get enough time to get into
the depth of news. Anchors and news producers don’t have time to analyze the topic. That’s why
electronic media is in a follow up role.
SHANKAR ARNIMESH, JOURNALIST,FOCUS NEWS
1. What’s your view on opinion poll during elections?
S.A.---In India opinion polls are not scientific. The sample size of the opinion polls are
very small in comparison to total electorate. Generally the sample size does not exceed
30-35 thousand. During my career as a reporter I didn’t see any agent of any polling
agency at any polling booth. I always surprised how it all happened. I can mention here
an incident during 2004 general elections a media adviser of the senior leader of BJP told
the poll agency that increased the seats of BJP from 240 to 272. Generally the poll agents
do all exercise in a close room. There are few who go to the voters and take their opinion.
Opinion polls are impactful on floating votes and definetly it works.
2. How can opinion polls accurate in predicting elections results?
S.A.---In India opinion polls can be successful if we do it proper techniques, with

scientific methods and with big sample size.
3. How after the emergence of television news channel changed the style of politics?
S.A.-Television has changed the vision of politicians. After television the major political
parties appointed television-styled politicians to face camera. The spokesperson of
political parties take special care of their dress. In BJP Prakash Jawdekar change his dress
between every press conferences. Television news channel also helped in free and fair
elections. The incidents of booth capturing and violence during elections have
minimized. Actually, after the 24-hours news channel the scenario of politics changed.
4. How paid news is direct threat to the Indian media and Indian democracy?
S.A.-The impact channel has degraded because you are loosening your credibility. News
is diluted. Content is diluted. The news channel is now output based rather than input
based. After the open paid news in journalism the credibility is on the stake.
5. How media is playing an important role in society to raise the issues concerning
common man?
S.A.---After expansion of television and different mode of media the voters are more
aware. We can say that media is a parallel system against government. Because people
complain about their problems through media.
6. Do you think to curb the money power in elections, electoral reforms is needed?
S.A.-Election reform is needed. The politicians and parties expense money during
elections, that’s why they are free to expense unlimited amount. Politicians manage
media on the expenses of money. If election commission spend money during elections
many malpractices of elections can be curbed. Paid news is one of them. In India
SHANKAR ARNIMESH, JOURNALIST,FOCUS NEWS
channels have not there revenue model. Few are depended on Ad and few are in loss. The
media should be operated through trust.
The ownership of media is not concern about the Nation service, it is based on profit
making. Media is not mere a business, it should be different.
7. What’s your take on paid news?
S.A.- The Paid news syndrome came in 2009 general elections. However, before the
2009 elections many newspapers were started to to publish paid news. We can see in
same newspaper stories which claim victory of two different parties candidates from the
same constituency. Through the paid news syndrome news are affected. In the era of paid
news the journalism is on sale. It is deeply institionalise in journalism. Infact few senior
journalists are get salaries from the big corporate houses.
8. Do you think media is showing way to the government or it is managed by the

government?
S.A.-During NDA regime government was on backfoot due to media. Various scams
were surfaced during Vajpayee government regime. BJP leaders often told to reporters
why you all criticize us, focus on congress. Media was more active at that time. During
the first tenure of Manmohan Singh’s government the media was supportive towards
government. But during present tenure many scams have been unearthed. In states, media
is not soft to the government, it is because of good governance that many governments
repeated. The government try to manage media and somehow media is managed. That’s
why media is loosing its credibility. Many journalists were found in radia tape, which
shows how the few influential journalists are corrupted.
SANJAY BARAGTA,JOURNALIST,AAJ TAK
1. What is the role of media during elections ?
S.B.--- After independence the mood of election is judged from the rural areas. But
now it is judged from the air conditioned room that’s why media is not able to judge
the mood of the voters. Maximum voters of India is from village and media is more
focussed on urban areas. It is very tough to reach on conclusion on the basis of
information from urban voters.
But why this happened?
S.B.--- This is because of the market oriented media. Newspaper has become product.
Media houses want maximum profit from minimum resources, which is possible
through focusing on urban market. television news channels also focused on the
urban news only. Earlier newspapers were focused on rural area but it is not the
situation now.
Why journalism is not passion now?
S.B.--- Now the ethics and idealism of journalism have been the matter of past. I
accept that I am not doing journalism. I see that which news can be sale, I mean can
give more TRPs.
What’s your reaction on Paid news?
S.B.--- Paid news is deception with the readers and viewers of the news. We take
money for the advertisements but present it as news, which is basically news Paid
news. Journalist are not getting money through paid news, it is media houses
5. How the role of media has been changed after emergence of 24 hours news
channels?
S.B.--- There are many positives have emerged after the emergence of 24 hours news
channels. In free and fair elections channels have contributed a lot. But there is a
threat also in the form of paid news. If we talk about Hindi and English news
channels hindi news channels are confused. Don’t think on serious content, think on
TRPs only. English channels are followed by the people who make opinion and
decide on it.
6 Do you think media is in role of agenda setter?
S.B.--- Media set the agenda. Media set the agenda of Anna Hazare movement. Set
the agenda of IC-814. Jessica lal case was also one of them. Issues related to elections
are fragmented.
SHAMSHER SINGH,JOURNALIST, INDIA TV
1.What’s your views on opinion poll surveys during election?
S.S.--- Opinion polls across world are a vital and intrinsic part of elections. But given the
vastness of India and a society which is split down the middle because of multiple
primordial identities like caste ,religion etc and loyalties created by these
factors….creates a huge problem while pollsters are framing questions for opinion polls.
Also sample size is often so small for these polls that more often than not it is likely to
throw wrong results. I think an effort is required to make these polls more scientific,
where questions are properly framed and options for answers should not be vague. Also
pollsters needs to undergo rigorous training so that when they interact with people they
are able to feel the pulse of the people and thus know that answers given are true or not.
2.Do opinion polls play any decisive role in election outcome? If yes, then how?
S.S.---Well, opinion polls are a new phenomenon in election covereage in India. And if
we look at parliamentary or state elections held in last two decades, it certainly has not
played any decisive role or has not influenced the outcome of the elections. In 2004 all
opinion polls predicted return of NDA to power at centre but it was decisive defeat in
elections. If we look at recently concluded assembly election in Kerala, all opinion polls
predicted a landslide for UDF but ultimately result showed a wafer thin margin and it
narrowly made it. So, I think Indian voters are politically matured and do not get swayed
by what opinion polls are predicting.
3.How can media play effective role during elections?
S.S.---Media must pick up people’s issues and focus on them during elections. There is a
growing disconnect between political masters and people and media should effectively
bring it out in open. Manifesto Of any political party is an important document during
elections. But rather than going deep into it andanalyzing that whether it reflects the
concern of the people or not , media tends to just gloss over important points and then
forget about it. This is an important document which must be taken to the people and
scrutinized and reported. Apart from this, media also has to play the role of a watch dog
and intervene effectively whenever and wherever elections rules are violated but sadly it
is all the time looking for sensational news and thus often ignore important news items
which are more relevant for people at large.
4. Which factors influence media during elections?
S.S.---Unlike some European countries where media houses endorse one political party
or another, in India media is supposed to be neutral. But is it really? Every media house
has its own political biases and it reflects in its reporting of events. Its just does not
happen at the time of elections. In fact it builds up in the run up to the elections. And then
during elections it comes to the fore.
5 .What’s your take on paid news syndrome?
S.S.---Well, nothing worst could have happened to media than this phenomenon of paid
news. You take money from political party or individual candidates to publish news that
will benefit that political party or individual candidate. It amounts to creating a false
image and thus influence the public opinion wrong way. It gives an edge to political party
or the candidate which has money power and put others at a disadvantage who can not
buy space in media. If journalism has to be fair, which it ought to be, then this has to stop
immediately.
6. How Paid news negatively affected the profession of Journalism?
S.S.---Indeed it has. There was a time when people used to accept reporting in media at
its face value. Now there is a general complain ‘ sab beeke hue hain’. Journalists who
were earlier respected and now viewed with disdain. And media houses are themselves
responsible for it. And if they want to redeem themselves and get back the lost glory then
this practice of paid news has to stop immediately.
7. Do media instituitions provied education according to the demand of organization? Do

you think there is need to relook?
S.S.---Well we cannot expect media institution to churn out professionals according to

the demand of various organisations. Off late, a new trend has emerged where big media
houses have set up their own shops to train young people who wants to come into this
field. And they are tutored as p[er the demand of the organisation and absorbed at the
end of the course. So these people are trained almost on job. But there is certainly a need
to relook where not only young minds but also journalists already in profession are also
educated with the new emerging trends in media globally so that general standard can be
raised.
8. Please share your experience as media professionals. Which types of changes you
have seen in Journalism during this period?
S.S.---Well media has undergone tremendous transformation in last two decades after the
arrival of cable television. Earlier people were used to reading newspapers with their
morning tea. Now they are updated every minute about the developments. New
technology has emerged. Internet is available on people’s mobile and they can log in
whenever they want no matter where they are. This connectivity has brought in a great
dissemination of information. That is the brighter side of developments. Down side is that
a new concept has emerged which is called ‘infotainment’. And mad race for trp has
driven almost all hindi news channel to embrace this concept. And gradually news has
vanished and entertainment has taken lot of air time. This certainly needs to be changed.
For entertainment there are channels to show them. News channels must stick to the news
business.
DILEEP MANDAL,JOURNALIST
1. How paid news is a big threat for the Media?
D.M.--- Paid news is not a new phenomenon. It emerged and felt in 2009 General
election in broad manner. This is very bad because it affect the freedom of people in
democracy. It affects the right of people to choose because of wrong information in
the shape of news, which is basically paid. Earlier it was on the Entertainment and
Business pages of newspapers, now it is on political page. News was manipulated
through reporters in early phases but after paid news the chain of reporter is no more
in the scene. Now media houses directly talk to political parties and leaders on rate
cards. We can say that small scale industry is now institutional because earlier
reporter there now media organization itself.
It means that the role of reporters in news have been declined?
D.M.--- Infact in Board of Directors , there is no journalist as its member who talk
about the journalism ethics. Media industry looks for profit and role of journalist in
policy making of media organization is very small. Media houses decide what should
be aired for viewers. Why in 2009 the paid news syndrome came in limelight, it
might come in earlier years. Year 2008 and 2009 was the year of economic crisis in
the whole world. India was also affected by it. Due to recession the advertisement
growth rate recorded negative. In this situation packaged was given by government
and media house managed money for itself. But there was no economic recession in
media houses. Media houses expanded their business during these period. Sixty news
channels were opened and newspapers also expanded. But on the name of economic
recession Media restructured itself. They cut short the strength of their work force,
increased the rate of advertisement, got government package and earned money from
paid news. So it can be said that it was not recession years for media.
How Paid news is affecting the Indian democracy?
D.M.--- According to Chowmsky and Herman media is campaign for propaganda. It

is a medium for high class society to govern, because minority have to govern on
majority. The fourth pillar of democracy is also the fourth pillar of the high class
society. Due to paid news media is losing its credibility. The traditional means of
election campaign was discontinued by T.N. Seshan on the name of electoral reforms
but leaders and political parties used other means. Media is one of it. Paid news is
also a part of it.
Why the syndrome of paid news is less in Kerala and Taminnadu in comparison to
other major states?
D.M.--- Kerala and Tamilnadu both have special features. In both two states major
media group is governed and controlled by the political parties. Directly there is no
DILEEP MANDAL,JOURNALIST
paid news but control of media by political parties also goes to same way as paid
news.
There are many theory which talk about media. In your view media is following which
theory ?
D.M.--- There is not an special theory working for media and media is working on it.
All theories are working collectively.
Political parties are also against the paid news.
D.M.--- Political parties who govern are not generally against the media related issues
because they manage media through many ways. Government increase the number of
advertisements before the election period. Media don’t decide how to think on
particular topic but it decide that on which topic or issues people should think over.
Is it possible to stop the paid news?
D.M.--- It can’t be stopped but a something and small can be done. How can you say
that some particular story is Paid news. It is very tough to stop this. But the people
and organizations who are indulge in Paid news should be given less importance. If
they will lose the faith of readers and viewers then paid news will not exist.
Do you think Mass media is fulfilling its role in Indian context?
D.M.--- Media is not it its role. Media is in favor of powerful and high level group. If
somebody manage to come, apart from this society, this is because of Power of
Democracy.
DINESH GAUTAM,JOURNALIST,SAHARA SAMAY
1. How media is playing an important role in the deepening of democracy in India?
D.G.--- In democracy majority of people’s view is necessary on any topic, issues or

subject. Media play an important role to connect the people on any issues. We all are
attached with information round the clock through Mass Media. Information empower us
which is possible through the Media.
2. How the emergence of 24 hours news channel have changed the campaigning style of
political parties and delivery of news during election?
D.G. --- Politicians want to catch the eyeballs. They want to attract the people through
Mass Media. It is easy for them to put their views from the platform of media rather
than to campaign door to door or voter to voter. After the emergence of different types of
Mass Media many positives have emerged but there are negatives also. Among negatives
paid news is one of them.
3. How the present era is different from that of Newspapers/Radio dominance era?
D.G.--- After emergence of 24-hour news channel media is more impactful. Voters are
able to see the incident addition to listening and reading it. In India, a major portion of
voters are not literate, after the news channel they are able to make their opinion through
watching television.
4. Do you think in elections politicians try to manage media in their favour?
D.G.--- Political parties try to manage media through different means during elections
and they try to set their agenda. But sometimes they get success, sometimes not.
5. What your views on media impact through different phases?
D.G.--- In past media raises the issues against established government. They try to check
and balance the government. But the trend is not common now because media
organizations have their own interests. They try to take unusual favour from government
through media.
6. What your take on Paid news syndrome?
D.G.--- It is a dangerous syndrome. Paid news is presented like a news item which is
dangerous for the democracy because news has its impact on voters.
7. What your views on functioning of Media in contemporary India?
D.G.--- Many times and again and again important news are missed both in print and
electronic media. Infact print media is in same way on which electronic is following.
DINESH GAUTAM,JOURNALIST,SAHARA SAMAY
Print media present the news like masala. It focus on layout, printing style rather than
content of the issues. News is presented like Masala News.
8. What your take on opinion poll surveys during elections?
D.G.--- The Election Commission of India have to decide that whether opinion poll
surveys are just taking opinions of voters or they are trying to make the opinion. If it is
just for taking opinion then no problem, but if it is not then it is problematic for
democracy.
9. Media is less rural concern than urban. How can we expand our reach to rural issues,
which will help in real democracy?
D.G.--- Rural people have different neis. Due to market media focus on urban centric
news. But we have to take care of the rural issues. We can focus on rural issues through
them who have their interest in rural areas.
10. As a media professional do you think Journalism and Mass communication

institutions provide education according to the demand of media organization?
D.G.--- Some media institutions are providing education according to the line of media
organizations demand. But there are few. Among them are some reputed institutions. But
another problem is that serious candidates are not coming in this field which is a major
concern. Those who are coming are just taking journalism as a profession not as a social
mission.
11. What your views on relation between media and politics?
D.G.--- It has changed drastically. In past wrong was treated as wrong and right was
treated as right. But due to pressure on media sometimes don’t try to focus or cover the
wrong.
12. It is media which is strengthening democracy or vice versa?
D.G.--- It is vice versa, both are strengthening each other.

Role of Indian Media in Covering General Elections

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ROLE OF INDIAN MEDIA:

COVERING GENERAL ELECTIONS

Under the Supervision of Ex-officio Head

DEPARTMENT OF JOURNALISM AND MASS COMMUNICATION

My first and foremost acknowledgement goes to Dr. Mukul Srivastava, Department of

Thanks everybody for helping me in completion of this study.

I, Niraj Kumar, Ph.D. research Scholar, University of Lucknow, Lucknow, hereby

(Dr. Mukul Srivastava)

CHAPTERS PAGE NO.

2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 18-20

3. DEMOCRACY AND INDIAN ELECTIONS: THE EXPERIENCE

4. EXIT POLL AND OPINION POLLS: ROLE OF SURVEYS

5. THE PAID NEWS SYNDROME: IS IT CUTTING INTO

6. RISE OF NEWS CHANNEL AND ELECTIONS 95-125

7. INTERPRETATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS 126-133

Table No. Table Title Page No.

Table 4.3.1 Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of 47

Table 4.3.16 Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of 62

ROLE OF INDIAN MEDIA : COVERING GENERAL ELECTIONS

ROLE OF INDIAN MEDIA : COVERING GENERAL ELECTIONS

MASS MEDIA, DEMOCRACY AND ELECTIONS

1.1 MASS MEDIA

Mass communication is actually a one-way-mode of communication in which media

Janowitz defined the Mass communication as follow ―Mass communications comprise

1.2 MEDIA AND SOCIETY

ROLE OF INDIAN MEDIA : COVERING GENERAL ELECTIONS Page 1

1.3 MEDIA AND DEMOCRACY

ROLE OF INDIAN MEDIA : COVERING GENERAL ELECTIONS Page 2

1.4 MEDIA AND ELECTIONS

ROLE OF INDIAN MEDIA : COVERING GENERAL ELECTIONS Page 3

ROLE OF INDIAN MEDIA : COVERING GENERAL ELECTIONS Page 4

1.5 HISTORY OF MASS MEDIA IN INDIA

Indian mass media consists of several different types of communications: Newspapers,

ROLE OF INDIAN MEDIA : COVERING GENERAL ELECTIONS Page 5

ROLE OF INDIAN MEDIA : COVERING GENERAL ELECTIONS Page 6

1.6 NEED AND IMPORTANCE OF THE STUDY

1.7 REVIEW LITERATURE

ROLE OF INDIAN MEDIA : COVERING GENERAL ELECTIONS Page 7

ROLE OF INDIAN MEDIA : COVERING GENERAL ELECTIONS Page 8

G Palnithurai‘s study on ―voters reasoning of political participation‖ questions the

ROLE OF INDIAN MEDIA : COVERING GENERAL ELECTIONS Page 9

ROLE OF INDIAN MEDIA : COVERING GENERAL ELECTIONS Page 10

ROLE OF INDIAN MEDIA : COVERING GENERAL ELECTIONS Page 11

ROLE OF INDIAN MEDIA : COVERING GENERAL ELECTIONS Page 12

ROLE OF INDIAN MEDIA : COVERING GENERAL ELECTIONS Page 13

1. when party loyalties are weak

2. there are new subjects to cover

4. people rarely discuss politics

ROLE OF INDIAN MEDIA : COVERING GENERAL ELECTIONS Page 14

In democratic societies, the relationship between media organizations is characterized

ROLE OF INDIAN MEDIA : COVERING GENERAL ELECTIONS Page 15

1. Jammicutecoco (September,2011). “The Evolution of Mass Media,” pp. 1

5. Table of Contents "Media and Elections" HYPERLINK "http://aceproject.org/ace-

7. "Media and Elections" HYPERLI NK "http://aceproject.org/ace-

11. M Shatruguna, EPW, volume-xxvi, no-25, june 22, 1991, p-1511.

13. Dr. G. Palanithurai, ‖voters‘ reasoning of political participation‖, monthly public

14. J S Yadav,‖campaign and voters‘ choice-1984 parliamentary election‖ in

16. Thomas Patterson, out of order, (new York:Alfred a knof, 1993).

ROLE OF INDIAN MEDIA : COVERING GENERAL ELECTIONS Page 16

18. Sevanti Ninan, Headlines from the heartland (2007)

ROLE OF INDIAN MEDIA : COVERING GENERAL ELECTIONS Page 17

1. To understand the role of Media during elections in Indian Context.

2. To understand the special Characteristics of Electronic Media, especially