LIVE PROJECT REPORT

On
RELIGARE SECURITIES LIMITED
“EQUITY & COMMODITY RESEARCH”

SUBMITTED BY
AKANKSHA SHARMA
GURLEEN KAUR
IILM INSTITUTE FOR HIGHER EDUCATION
GURGAON

Abstract
Share and equity trading in India is undergoing a transition and consolidation phase witnessed
never before. The competition is likely to become so severe after the entry of many players,
retaining a customer is most difficult practice for any service provider.

Though India has a very big untapped market but the players will not flourish unless they change
the way the customers are being served. Given the awareness level of today customers every
player has to treat with care and make the customer feel that he is the king. Number of Online
Share trader in India has crossed the line. More and more customers are coming under this
umbrella and many of the existing one are changing pavilion. So customer retention and
satisfaction is now more important as it was never before. Players keep coming with new
schemes in order to attract new customers and retain the existing one.

This is being supplemented with increased advertising and brand building efforts.

Success of any organization depends upon its being proactive. An often quoted marketing adage
is to manage a business well is to manage its future and to manage its future is to manage
information.”

With so many options and considerations that need to be taken into account, it is an extremely
arduous task for a broker to investigate aspects of the stock market and consistently provide
effective advice to their clients.

This project throws lights on the working frame of broking service. This industry is on the spree
to adopt the latest technology and thus any player has to be dynamic in this industry. The
comparative analysis done in this project show how Religare has built competitive edge on some
ground. The Project will help you to understand the strategies of this industry right from De-Mat
to Trading, Margin to analysis and risk to return. I hope this project will prove to be beneficial
for the Company and also gives the reader a through idea about the industry. I learnt a lot
through out the process of undertaking this project report.
 Indian Equity Market
The Indian Equity Market is more popularly known as the Indian Stock Market. The Indian
equity market has become the third biggest after China and Hong Kong in the Asian region.
According to the latest report by ADB, it has a market capitalization of nearly $600 billion. As of
March 2009, the market capitalization was around $598.3 billion (Rs 30.13 lakh crore) which is
one-tenth of the combined valuation of the Asia region. The market was slow since early 2007
and continued till the first quarter of 2009.

A stock exchange has been defined by the Securities Contract (Regulation) Act, 1956 as an
organization, association or body of individuals established for regulating, and controlling of
securities.

The Indian equity market depends on three factors -

 Funding into equity from all over the world

 Corporate houses performance
 Monsoons

The stock market in India does business with two types of fund namely private equity fund and
venture capital fund. It also deals in transactions which are based on the two major indices -
Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE).

The market also includes the debt market which is controlled by wholesale dealers, primary
dealers and banks. The equity indexes are allied to countries beyond the border as common
calamities affect markets. E.g. Indian and Bangladesh stock markets are affected by monsoons.

The equity market is also affected through trade integration policy. The country has advanced
both in foreign institutional investment (FII) and trade integration since 1995. This is a very
attractive field for making profit for medium and long term investors and short-term swing.

The Indian market has 22 stock exchanges. The larger companies are enlisted with BSE and
NSE. The smaller and medium companies are listed with OTCEI (Over The counter Exchange of
India). The functions of the Equity Market in India are supervised by SEBI (Securities Exchange
Board of India.
 COMPANY IN NUTSHELL

Religare Securities Limited (RSL), a 100% subsidiary of Religare Enterprises Limited is a

leading equity and securities firm in India. The company currently handles sizeable volumes
traded on NSE and in the realm of online trading and investments; it currently holds a reasonable
share of the market. The major activities and offerings of the company today are Equity Broking,
Depository Participant Services and Research Services. To broaden the gamut of services offered
to its investors, the company offers an online investment portal armed with a host of
revolutionary features.

 RSL is a member of the National Stock Exchange of India, Bombay Stock

Exchange of India, Depository Participant with National Securities Depository Limited
and Central Depository Services (I) Limited.

 Religare has been constantly innovating in terms of product and services and to
offer such incisive services to specific user segments it has also started the NRI, FII, HNI
and Corporate Servicing groups. These groups take all the portfolio investment decisions
depending upon a client's risk / return parameter.

 Religare has a very credible Research and Analysis division, which not only
caters to the need of our Institutional clientele, but also gives their valuable inputs to
investment dealers.

KEY DATES

1994- The company was incorporated on 23rd March & received certificate of commencement
of business on April 19th.

1995- The company obtained its Category I Merchant Banking Registration from SEBI on 18th
April.

1996- The Honorable High Court at Delhi & Mumbai on 26th March approved the Scheme of
amalgamation of the company with Fortis Financial Services Ltd.
BRAND IDENTITY

Name

Religare is a Latin word that translates as 'to bind together'. This name has been chosen to reflect
the integrated nature of the financial services the company offers.

Symbol

The Religare name is paired with the symbol of a four-leaf clover. Traditionally, it is considered
good fortune to find a four-leaf clover as there is only one four-leaf clover for every 10,000
three-leaf clovers found.

Each leaf of the clover has a special meaning. It is a symbol of Hope. Trust. Care. Good Fortune.

For the world, it is the symbol of Religare.

The first leaf of the clover represents Hope. The aspirations to succeed. The dream of
becoming. Of new possibilities. It is the beginning of every step and the foundation
on which a person reaches for the stars.

The second leaf of the clover represents Trust. The ability to place one’s own faith in
another. To have a relationship as partners in a team. To accomplish a given goal with
the balance that brings satisfaction to all, not in the binding, but in the bond that is
built.

The third leaf of the clover represents Care. The secret ingredient that is the cement in
every relationship. The truth of feeling that underlines sincerity and the triumph of
diligence in every aspect. From it springs true warmth of service and the ability to
adapt to evolving environments with consideration to all.

The fourth and final leaf of the clover represents Good Fortune. Signifying that rare
ability to meld opportunity and planning with circumstance to generate those often
looked for remunerative moments of success.

Hope. Trust. Care. Good Fortune. All elements perfectly combine in the emblematic
and rare, four-leaf clover to visually symbolize the values that bind together and form
the core of the Religare vision.
Board of Directors

Mr. Malvinder Mohan Singh - Chairman (Non Executive)

Mr. Sunil Godhwani - CEO & Managing Director

Mr. Shivinder Mohan Singh - Non Executive Director

Mr. Harpal Singh - Non Executive Director

Mr.Deepak Ramchand Sabnani - Independent Director

Mr.Padam Bahl - Independent Director

Mr.J.W. Balani - Independent Director

Mr. Baldev Singh Johal - Independent Director

ORGANISATION STRUCTURE

NATIONAL SALES & MARKETING HEAD

V. P- Investment V.P - Sales

AVP- Investment AVP - Sales

Zonal Manager- Investment Regional sales head

Senior Investment manager Branch Manager

Manager- Investment Team leader

Relationship Manager

Asst. Relationship Manager

Relationship executive
 EMPLOYEES AT REL

10,000
8753
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000 4,372
4,000
3,000
2,000 1,625

1,000
-
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

REL EMPLOYEE DISTRIBUTION

RSL RCL RFL RWMSL REL RCML RIBL

 PRODUCT EQUITY

The different products offered by Religare Securities Ltd have been categorized under three
broad clients interface.

RETAIL SPECRUM WEALTH SPECTRUM INSTITUTIONAL SPECTRUM

Equity and commodity trading Wealth advisory services Institutional equity broking

Personal Financial services Port folio management services Investment banking

(Distribution of
Priority client equity services
mutual funds

Distribution of

insurance)

Personal Credits(Personal loan

services

Loans against shares

Online Investment)

Product Portfolio

1. Derivatives and Equity

Equity

REL’s equity investment philosophy is centered on generating capital appreciation for the
investor. The primary emphasis is on providing the investor with a degree of capital appreciation,
superior to that of the returns from the equity class as represented by a market index over the
longer term. Its core investment premise is that the equity markets are not completely efficient. A
well-organized and thorough research effort combined with a disciplined portfolio management
approach enables out performance of the market index over time.

A key pillar of our disciplined approach is to stay true to the mandate of the specific fund as
specified in the offer document under all circumstances. This is key to generating superior
performance over time even though there could be times when staying true to the mandate may
result in short-term underperformance. Its investment philosophy is a matrix framework of
Company, Industry, Economic and Technical analysis. The equity team provides many of the
inputs for this framework, but it also uses inputs from external sources as and when required.
This open framework is combined with an environment that encourages regular and constant
debate; which REL believes leads to superior decision making.

Trading in Equities with Religare truly empowers customers for their investment needs. REL
ensure that the customer has a superlative trading experience through -

 A highly process driven, diligent approach

 Powerful Research & Analytics and
 One of the "best-in-class" dealing rooms

Further, Religare also has one of the largest retail networks. Now, you can walk into any of our
branches and connect to our highly skilled and dedicated relationship managers to get the best
services.

The Religare Edge

 Pan India footprint
 Powerful research and analytics supported by a pool of highly skilled research
analysts
 Ethical business practices
 Offline/Online delivery models
 Single window for all investment needs through your unique CRN

2. Depository Services

RSL provides depository services to investors as a Depository Participant with NSDL and
CDSL.

The Depository system in India links issuers, Depository Participants, Depositories National
Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) and Central Depository Services (India) Limited (CDSL)
and clearing houses / clearing Corporation of Stock Exchanges. These facilitate holding of
securities in dematerialized form and securities transactions are processed by means of account
transfers.
REL customer centric account schemes have been designed keeping in mind the investment
psychology. With a competent team of skilled professionals, they manage over 5,00,000
accounts and have a dedicated customer care centre, exclusively trained to handle queries from
its customers. With our country wide network of branches, you are never far from Religare
depository services.

Religare’s depository service offers a secure, convenient, paperless and cost effective way to
keep track of your investment in shares and other instruments over a period of time, without the
hassle of handling physical documents. Customer’s DP account with REL takes care of their
depository needs like dematerialization, rematerialisation, transfer and pledging of shares, stock
lending and borrowing.

Customer’s demat account is safe and absolutely secure in our hands, every debit instruction is
executed only after its authenticity is established. REL’s hi-tech in-house capabilities cater to the
needs of software maintenance, database administration, network maintenance, backups and
disaster recovery. This extra cover of security has gained the trust of their clients.

3. Currency Futures

Currency future is the world's most traded financial instrument with .

Benefits of Currency Futures

 High Liquidity
 Extended trading hours - 9 am to 5 pm
 Opportunities to reap benefits owing to a highly dynamic market
 Small lot size of only US $1000 with low exchange specified margins
Currency Futures is best suited for -

 SMEs / Individuals involved in Imports/Exports

 Corporate/ Institutions involved in Imports/Exports and anybody else who has
foreign currency exposure

4. Mutual Fund
Mutual Fund offers an opportunity for long term wealth creation. At RSL we ensure that your
investment are in safe hands backed by quality research and based on the needs of the client
according to his Income, Saving, Age, Family Background etc.

Introduction of New Mutual Fund Service System (MFSS) & Bombay Stock Exchange
Platform for Allotment and Redemption of Mutual Fund Units (BSE StAR MF)

Securities Exchange Board of India (SEBI) vide circular SEBI/IMD/CIR No. 11/
183204/2009 dated November 13, 2009 allowed transaction in Mutual Fund schemes through
the Stock Exchange infrastructure. Units of Mutual fund Schemes have been permitted to be
 transacted through registered Stock Brokers of recognized Stock Exchanges. With this the
Stock Exchange mechanism extends the present convenience available to secondary market
investor to mutual fund investors. This will give distributors and brokers a level- playing
field with banks in enabling clients to invest in mutual fund and enable to expand the reach
of mutual fund schemes to more towns and cities.

Research in Religare
Religare believe in providing independent research for clients to make investment decisions,
with strict emphasis on self-regulation, avoiding possible conflict of interest in objectivity.

Backed by a strong pool of highly skilled research analysts, they offer varied research products
and services.

Research Products

 Fundamental Research

 Technical Research

 Daily Reports

 Intraday trading tech calls

 Intraday Derivative call

 Directional F&O calls

 Structured Products

 Index Arbitrage

- Arbitraging between Index (NIFTY) Futures and its constituents (Underlying Stock
Futures).

 Volatility Trading

- Arbitrage between volatilities i.e. between implied volatility of options and forecasted
volatility of underlying stock futures.
 

 
Fixed Income

The philosophy for managing fixed income assets revolves around Safety, Liquidity and
Consistency with the objective of building high quality portfolios that aim for strong and
consistent investment results.

Investment process

Equity

 Idea Generation

Based on the fund objective, we start filtering down the possible investment universe to
more attractive opportunities. The process involves Company, Industry, Economic and
Technical analysis in alignment with the investment objective of the underlying fund.
The fund's investment objective has implications for definition of the universe, company
selection, industry and asset allocation.
 
 Matrix Analysis

As part of the Matrix approach we analyze, bottom up, the fundamentals of the
companies that are part of the universe. We use external research and find it useful as a
source of information and financial models. However, we believe our direct and in-depth
interaction with a company and its competitors, suppliers and buyers - wherever feasible
and possible, helps us arrive at our own unique insight into the company. The maximum
inefficiency in the markets is at the company level, and an in-depth research effort can
 generate a knowledge advantage and superior performance.

To this, we add our top down economic views and industry views - leading to industry
and asset allocation decisions. The economic and industry analysis also has its
implications on company selection. Technical analysis is another input for asset
allocation decisions. All of this is in keeping with the investment objective of the specific
fund
 
 Security Selection

To help select stocks for the portfolio, we use a proprietary stock categorization system.
The objective of our stock categorization system is to enable us to identify stocks that are
likely to be the best investments from within our universe. Each category of stock has a
description of fundamental attributes that we expect the company to possess. The
categorizations are as follows:

Stock Growth Company Attribute Financial

Descriptions (eg.)
Category Prospects (eg.) (eg.) Parameter (eg.)
Entrepreneur vision, Operating
Star Young companies High growth
scalability Leverage
Track record of
Established In line or better Industry leading
Leader leadership, globally
companies than industry margin / ROE
competitive
Young / Unique proposition and
Better than Margin & ROE
Warrior established / or right place, right
industry expansion
companies time
Company with Management intent to Value of asset /
Diamond Low growth
valuable assets unlock value business
Company in a
Intrinsic strengths in P2P, ROE
Frog Prince turnaround Back to growth
core business expansion
situation
Corporate event,
Opportunistic Positive
Shotgun restructuring, earnings Event visibility
investment surprise
news

Integration, cost
Call on the cycle is
Commodities Positive efficiency, globally Profit leverage
paramount
competitive
           * P2P - Path to Profit, ROE - Return on Equity

 Stocks that fit into one of these categories typically display superior return profiles, but
 more importantly this enables fund managers to focus on the attributes that drive stock
price performance and keep a watch for red flags.

 
 Portfolio Construction

The fund manager has the primary responsibility for portfolio construction based on the
investment objective of the Fund. Portfolio construction guidelines are laid down for each
fund and reviewed on a need basis and otherwise regularly on a quarterly basis. Every
investment decision we make is by keeping in mind the investment objective of the fund
and how the security will affect the overall portfolio. In addition, we also look into the
current Economic / Industry views that impact industry and asset allocation decisions for
the fund. Technical views which are relevant to asset allocation, if applicable are also
taken into consideration. Our preference is for companies with the characteristics as
defined in our stock categorization framework.
 
 Sell Decipline

We may sell a stock because the fundamentals of a company, industry or economy have
changed or a company's competitive advantage appears to have deteriorated. It could also
be a function of alternative opportunities being available at a more attractive valuation or
an inability to justify prevailing valuations.
 
 Oversight
The role of monitoring and reviewing is undertaken by the investment committee
consisting of Chief Executive Officer , Head - Equity Funds, Head- Fixed Income and
Head- Compliance and by any additional member which may be included/ nominated to
the committee which meets on a periodic basis. The committee is empowered to establish
internal norms such as industry allocation, asset allocation etc for each fund and to
monitor and review this on an ongoing basis.

 
Fixed Income
  Fund Objective

The fund objective is the basis for investment management for all schemes. The mandate
of the fund including asset allocation framework, duration limit etc. as defined in the
offer document of the fund acts as the building blocks for portfolio construction and
maintenance activities. Guidelines as provided by the Regulators are strictly adhered to.
 
 Interest Rate View

Our views on the interest rate are based upon extensive fundamental research by adopting
a Top-Down approach. Fundamental analysis has a thorough coverage on the macro
variable of the economy, relative value analysis within the asset class and between asset
classes, portfolio stress testing and scenario analysis and scheme’s performance
monitoring vis-à-vis its defined benchmark.
 
 Security Selection

Selection of the security for the purpose of portfolio construction would greatly depend
on the asset allocation pattern of the scheme as defined in the offer document. Security
would be selected based on asset allocation optimization to deliver superior returns.
 
 Credit Quality

There is a stress on credit quality assessment by following a Bottom-up approach to

selecting the credit. Constant credit watch for Pre-trade and post-trade for all the
components in the portfolio is followed. Due consideration would also be given to
liquidity of each credit in the secondary market
 
 Duration Management

The duration of each portfolio is actively managed depending on the interest rate view
 
 Portfolio Management
 The endeavor of each fund is to deliver superior returns. Duration management, Asset
Allocation optimizing and relative value analysis would be the key to delivering superior
returns

Trends in Commodity Market

GOLD
Gold has surged 60% in the past 12months and it’s not letting up. The “yellow metal” is
continuing that scorching surge into the last part of the year, establishing new highs on a near-
daily basis. In fact, gold established yet another record price yesterday (Wednesday) when it
peaked at $1,153.40 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

And the records are going to keep on coming.

With the U.S. dollar in a freefall and global gold demand rising, analysts say the precious metal
will likely continue its bullish trend through at least the first half of 2010. It could rise as high as
$2,000 an ounce, which would represent a 73% gain from current record levels.

“Everything is pointing to the price of gold going higher,” Mike Sander, an investment adviser at
Seattle-based Sander Capital Advisors, wrote in an e-mailed report.

And “a whopping budget deficit continuing to balloon, a Federal Reserve in no place of raising
rates, and central banks all over the world diversifying away from the dollar,” will be the main
catalysts for gold’s continued rise, he said.

Indeed, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s loose monetary policy has put the dollar under duress. The
central bank has pumped more than $2 trillion into the U.S. economy since the financial crisis
began more than two years ago. It has lowered its benchmark Federal Funds rate to a record-low
range of 0%-0.25% and it has stepped up purchases of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed
securities.

More recently, the return of investor risk appetite and the widespread belief that the Fed will
have to keep its stimulus measures in place as the U.S. economy struggles out of a long and deep
recession have put downward pressure on the greenback.

The dollar tumbled about 20% against the euro in the past year, and the Dollar Index – which
measures the greenback against the euro and five other currencies – fell to a 15-month low of
74.679 on Monday and was retesting that low as of Wednesday.

With the dollar in freefall, central banks and hedge funds have sought shelter in hard assets,
particularly gold. That’s a big reason why gold has experienced such a remarkable run this year.

“You have to consider the amount of money sloshing around the world right now – China’s $2.2
trillion in reserves, India’s $285 billion in reserves, all of the money in central banks throughout
the Middle East,” said Martin Hutchinson, a contributing editor for Money Morning and a
veteran banker with more than two decades experience in the international marketplace. “If all of
the serious money charges into gold and gold really gets going, you’ll see a tremendous spike in
prices.”

Concludes Hutchinson: “I believe the price of gold will hit $2,000 an ounce next year.”
Such steep run-ups have happened before. From 1978 to 1980, for instance, gold soared from
$185 an ounce to $850 an ounce, Hutchinson recalls. Interest rates were about 10% at that time.
Credit is much easier to get today.

“Right now, the cost of borrowing money and investing in gold is virtually zero,” Hutchinson
said.

How Global Demand Will Drive Gold to $2,000

Indeed, the bull-run in gold is already well underway, and it’s picking up steam.

Prices actually began their most recent rally when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) earlier
this month revealed that it sold 200 metric tons of gold to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) from
Oct. 19 to Oct. 30.

The RBI paid $6.7 billion for the 200 metric tons of the yellow metal – the equivalent of about
8% of the world’s annual mine production.

The move surprised many analysts, as India for the past 15 years had largely neglected its gold
reserves.

India’s gold holdings peaked at 20% of its foreign exchange reserves – all the way back in 1994.
Since that time, India’s gold holdings had fallen:
Indeed, prior to the central bank purchase, India’s gold holdings had dropped to just 3.6% of the
nation’s estimated $285.5 billion in foreign reserves.

Little wonder that last month’s gold purchase nearly doubled India’s holdings, which now stand
at 558 metric tons, or 6.2% of the nation’s forex reserves.

India’s gold holdings as a percentage of foreign reserves are now higher than even China’s. The
People’s Bank of China (BOC) holds about 1,054 metric tons of gold, equal to roughly 2% of its
$2.3 trillion in foreign currency reserves.

Asia’s third-largest economy now has the world’s 10th-largest gold reserve, behind Russia,
which has about 568 metric tons.

“Our Reserve Bank decided to buy some gold. I think about 400 tonnes. That’s normally
something we do from time to time. The IMF wanted to sell gold and we wanted to buy gold,”
Pranab Mukherjee, India’s finance minister, said in an interview with the Financial Times.

However, analysts have been far less flippant about the purchase.

Timothy Green, the author of “The Ages of Gold,” described India’s purchase to Bloomberg
News as “the biggest single central-bank purchase that we know about for at least 30 years in
such a short period.”
“The only comparable event was the U.S.’s steady purchases in the 1930s and 1940s,” he said.

Analysts believe India’s highly publicized purchase – which was made when prices were near
record highs – will spawn a chain reaction in which other countries and investors ramp up their
gold purchases.

“This is a landmark trade,” Jonathan Spall, a director at Barclays Capital (NYSE ADR: BCS)
and a gold specialist, told the FT. “Central banks are conservative institutions and India’s move
is a sign for other central banks and sovereign wealth funds that were contemplating buying
gold.”

The IMF said in September that it would sell 403.3 metric tons of the metal to shore up its
finances and increase its ability to lend at reduced rates to low-income countries.

And with 203.3 metric tons still on sale at the IMF, don’t be surprised if China decides to bulk
up on gold, too. China, the world’s sixth-largest holder of gold, has increased its yellow-metal
reserves by 76% since 2003. But the 1,054 metric tons it now holds is equal in value to just 2%
of its world-record $2.3 trillion in total reserves.

“It is but a matter of time until China and the IMF announce much of the same,” Dennis
Gartman, an economist and the editor of The Gartman Letter, told Bloomberg.

Worldwide demand for gold is clearly on the upswing. However, just as that’s happening, supply
and production of the precious metal are falling.

Annual worldwide mine production of gold has decreased by nearly 8% since 2001, even as the
price of gold has tripled.
Meanwhile, investment demand for gold remained very strong – surging 46% in the second
quarter of 2009 from a year ago, according to the World Gold Council.

“Everyone who says that gold will hit $2,000 in five years is wrong,” said Money Morning’s
Hutchinson. “It will be back down in 5 years. If it’s going to $2,000 it will get there next year.”

“It will turn around when [central banks] start taking monetary policy seriously, and they won’t
do that in a hurry,” he added. “Gold’s bull run is a bubble, just like all the other bubbles.  Except
this is more of a bang than a bubble, because it’s taking place so quickly.”

Four Ways to Play Gold

1. Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX): Gold miners benefit
disproportionately from a rise in the price of gold, because their production costs are
fixed. This means that miners are a more-leveraged way to play gold than the metal itself,
particularly since surging speculative demand can increase mining companies’
Price/Earnings (P/E) ratios.
2. SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE: GLD): GLD holds more than 1,000 ounces of gold,
and has a market capitalization of $39 billion. As an investment, GLD is more convenient
than buying gold bars directly. The fund’s share price fluctuates in concert with the price
of gold.
3. Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX): Barrick is the largest and financially strongest gold
producer, with a market capitalization of $43 billion, reserves of 124.6 million ounces of
gold (plus copper and silver), and operations in North America, South America,
Australasia and Africa.
4. Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE: AUY): A growing gold producer with a $6.8 billion market
capitalization that made an unexpectedly good profit in the fourth quarter of 2008,
Yamana is expanding both production and reserves (currently 19.4 million ounces) with
operations in Canada and Latin America. Its expansion magnifies the likely potential
benefit from an increase in gold prices.

MONTHLY GOLD PRICES

Price movement of gold over the past month - chart
 

1 YEAR GOLD PRICE Chart History

Gold Bullion Values for the past year - chart and graph

Historic Trends in Gold Prices

With the recent surge in gold prices over the last eight years plus, a new interest in all things gold
has arisen. Gold has long been regarded as a reliable store of value over the long term, one that
does not lose its purchasing power over time. This article focuses on the historical trends in gold
prices in the modern era.

In considering the historical price and trend of gold from the year 1900 to the present, the reader
should remember that from the years 1880 until 1914, and on and off again until the early 1930's,
the major world currencies were fixed to a gold standard, a mechanism which signified that the
price of currencies were measured against a near constant value of gold. During this time period,
and indeed beyond it to the early 1930's, despite changes in industrial capacities and outputs, a
Great War, the roaring twenties, and other turbulent events, the price of gold in US Dollars
hovered right around $20.60 per ounce. This remains the greatest period of stability in gold
prices over any given modern time frame. It is still an argument used by the growing chorus of
world leaders, including European Central Bank President Trichet and French President Sarkozy,
as well as businessmen, calling for a return to the relative stability (in international exchange
markets) of the gold standard. A dramatic series of events changed the value of gold prices to the
major international currencies, including the US Dollar, in the early 1930's. With the onset of the
Great Depression, the various major powers, especially France and the United States, began
policies of devaluing their currencies in a vain attempt to salvage their collapsing exports. Gold
in US Dollars made a dramatic sixty-five percent jump when in 1933, then President Roosevelt
made the decision to ban the buying and selling of bullion gold in the United States, as well as
the following year officially devaluing the dollar significantly against gold. The price soared in a
two year period from the historically stable rate of about $20.60 per ounce in 1932 to $34.70 per
ounce in 1934.

The next several decades again saw wild turbulence in the world in the form of a second great
war, World War II, as well as the destruction and subsequent rebuilding of both Europe and
Japan, the Korean War, and the outbreak of the Vietnam war. And yet remarkably, over this
traumatic period, the price of gold trended at approximately $35 per ounce, from the new high
made in 1934 all the way until 1967. The revived international gold standard once again helped
to maintain the stability of international exchange rates.  In 1967 and 1968, a number of
destabilizing events began which affected international markets and the United States. Similarly,
gold prices began to gyrate wildly for the next two decades, especially when the gold standard
was formally abandoned by President Nixon in 1971. Between the intensifying Vietnam War
which finally drew behind the scenes involvement of the Soviet Union, the Arab-Israeli War of
1967, and the Arab Oil Embargo of the early 1970's, gold rose from the four decade long stable
price of $35 per ounce to $161 by 1975, a wild four hundred fifty percent plus increase in only
eight years. Contrast this with the fifty year and thirty year periods of gold price stability during
the eras of the first and second World Wars, when the gold standard was generally still adhered
to.

The late 1970's and early 1980's saw yet more significant instability in the oil producing world,
which again rocked the value of the major world currencies no longer anchored by a gold
standard and drastically increased the price of gold. Between the Iranian Revolution and the
Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan, gold roared on up once more from the $161 previous
high at the end of 1975 to the closing price for the year of $612 in 1980 (having briefly touched
$850 in January, 1980), price levels it would not touch again for another twenty five years. The
intervention of governments in the foreign exchange markets and introduction of easier credit
and steady increase in money supplies, along with a relative return to calm in the oil producing
Middle East, led to a slow and steady decline in gold prices from this high of 1980 until the early
years of the new century. By 2001, gold had plummeted all the way to an annual average of
$278, and was rashly being called a barbaric, archaic relic that would soon be confined to the
dustbin of history.
Once more, the circumstances in the world went wild again on 9/11/2001, with the rapid rise of
radical terrorism in the attacks on the World Trade Center. Two major Middle Eastern wars
resulted in Iraq and Afghanistan, along with a series of economic crises events that began the
massive printing of US Dollars, expanding American money supply by three hundred percent
from 2007-2010. It should not come as any surprise that gold soared from this decades low of
$278 to more than $1,200 per ounce in the ensuing time period. Gold has now been in an uptrend
for more than eight years, gaining steadily every year, as more and new currency destabilizing
events and irresponsible monetary debasing policies continue around the world. Whatever
happens in the coming years, history has taught us that the price of gold will hold steady or
increase over time. As a very real example of this point, it is worth noting that one hundred years
ago, a one ounce, $20 Gold Piece would buy a high quality suit in the United States. Today that
same one ounce gold coin trades at over $1,200 per ounce, still enough to buy a very high quality
suit. The more gold prices change, the more they stay the same.

Let’s identify the conditions that occurred in 2009 which will lead forward into an assessment of
the 2010 outlook for metals and oil.

As we entered 2009, we had a major asset crash due to the events in toxic debt. In response the
Fed initiates major bailout programs. In the loosest monetary policy of modern times, interest
rates collapse to a low in late 2009. Look at the interest rate collapse into the end of 2008 on the
TBT (TBT: 32.9993 -1.1907 -3.48%) chart (20 year Inverse Short Bond ETF) As we can see by
the chart, today the long term interest rate picture is in a neutral position entering 2010 above the
blue downtrend line but above the blue uptrend line. The technical indicators are warning that
this current uptrend is losing steam as RSI has turned down and Williams %R is in the process of
dropping out of its overbought area (usually a sell signal). This indicator we use has been a good
at assisting us to discern where the highs and lows occurred.
The 50 and 200 day averages are converging right where price is. A break above or below the
averages with a subsequent penetration of the trend line would set the next interest rate trend in
motion. The direction that rates take will influence many of the other markets. A break higher
will portent higher rates and lower bond prices for the USA.

Right around the same time interest rates bottomed last November, the FIRST asset class
responds.

Gold bottoms with a November / December spike at the 700 dollar area right when interest rates
bottom and takes off on a rally to 1007 in March.
The gold chart displays the massive $540 dollar rally that has transpired over the past 13 months.
Not only has gold led all asset classes from the depths of the debt hole, but has been the clear
winner of the decade in mounting a rally from $251 dollars to $1227 at the peak. So strong has
the rally been that the 200 day moving average was only tested once, during the spring lows of
April and May. Even the 50 day moving average went from September to December over 100
days without being revisited until the past few days.

The lows for 2009 were the $865 - $870 area in gold. That pullback low was to exactly the same
price as the peak of January 21, 1980 when gold touched $875. From that low in spring, gold
rallied away from the 200 day average until it reached a point where price was $250 dollars
above the average when it peaked at $1227.

Outlook for Correction

There are three probable places for a price low during this pullback. First is the 50 day moving
average at the current price area of $1110. This is one potential price zone where a rally might
re-establish itself. Should gold bottom in the 1080-1090 area and solidly move above the 50 day
average, gold would stage an assault on the upper trend line where a major channel in which
price has bounced off the channel three times over the past 13 months.

The second area is the horizontal channel line drawn off the 2007 and 2008 top. We can see how
this area points to the price area where gold broke over 1000 to finally rally into higher triple
digit prices. This pullback or test of the breakout area would give us a range of about 1020-1040
in price.

The final area is where the bottom channel line, the small blue downtrend line drawn off the
March and June peaks and the 200 day moving average converge in price. That would put the
price range at about the 950-990 area and will be the most SOLID PRICE SUPPORT area for
gold in which gold would still maintain its upward momentum within this channel. Closes below
the 930-950 area during 2010 would suggest that the current credit contraction cycle has the
potential to bring down the house one more time like it did in 2008.

We expect gold will bottom at one of these three areas between now and mid January and a rally
back up to test or exceed the upper trend channel should develop going into mid winter.
Depending on the strength of the next leg up will determine how long the rally is to last.
Seasonal charts show that corrections usually develop in the mid-February to early March
timeframe on average. We suspect a spring peak will lead to what it usually does, a July/August
low. Should gold next rally fail to make new highs and then turn lower under the 50 day average
or below the low of this current pullback, the potential to test the lower levels we have listed
above will be in play.

Going into 2010, the gold market seems to have had only one nemesis, DEBT DEFAULT. The
2007 high at 1033 occurred right at the beginning of the Lehman default announcement. This
most recent pullback began within a week from the Dubai announcement and the announcement
itself had a 55 dollar pullback day.The notion that the global economic recovery is not
sustainable or at best in serious question is viable as the longer end of the interest rate curve as
we saw on the TBT chart has not signaled a new higher trend rate as of yet. Should the recovery
falter at a time of massive credit contraction the liquidation of assets both paper and hard cannot
be dismissed. Paper will go and depending on the severity of the contraction will depend on how
much gold might be affected.

Copper
There are a lot of analysts who look to copper to gauge economic strength. The chart below
shows that copper was the next major commodity to bottom when the feds collapsed interest
rates. Copper blew away the completion in 2009 by running from $1.25 to $3.25 in a triple digit
gain. And look at the chart. It was virtually straight up all year. Most recently however, the price
velocity over the past few months suggests of a price that is running out of steam. Copper is
virtually unchanged in the past few months.

The price high is also coming at a time price location where the 2008 collapse in price began
from.For certain a correction from this area is the odds favored event. Watch the Williams% R
indicator as it is just about to fall out of its overbought range.
From a time and price perspective copper looks ripe for a pullback in early 2010. Should copper
drop below the lower blue channel line and below the 280-290 area, odds would favor a pullback
to a minimum of the 200 day average at the 260 area with potential to trade lower should the
recovery falter in the far east.

Crude Oil

Crude double dipped at the bottom by developing a December low and then a subsequent
February seasonal lowunder the 40 dollar area, which if you recall was near the 1991 Iraq
invasion high.

Crude oil is nearing the potential seasonal lows as well. Notice that the current nine straight days
drop to under $70 had crude oil at the same price as last June and August. This underscores how
important it is to understand not only the trend of markets, but the VELOCITY and STRENGTH
of the trends. While it can be said that Crude is almost a double this year that is suggestive that
you bought at the bottom. More important is that anyone playing crude since last June who is not
a very short term trader has been hard pressed to make a buck. However, its seasonal lows are
approaching. As long as oil is above the 59-65 area the uptrend should continue. Any moves
down that PRICE AREA anytime but especially by the end of February where the seasonal lows
are due would be an excellent opportunity to take a position. The two blue arrows drawn on the
chart shows the next key resistance area in crude oil. The 90-110 area should provide the most
significant resistance to price in 2010. The current price pattern does not look as bullish as the
other commodities, but look for a seasonal low in the coming weeks.

From Year to Year………………….

From the end of last October to mid February, Gold was the place to be. From mid February to
mid June Crude was the place to be. From mid June to mid August, copper was the place to be.
And since September, it has been Gold, Gold, Gold.

In light of the above paragraph, there are a few ways investors and traders can take advantage of
the seasonal tendencies. One is to be overweight the commodity that is in season and the one
showing the best strength on the chart. Another is to simply line your portfolio with a mix of
these commodities so that each can have their turn providing a lift to the bottom line of your
portfolio. And finally for the seasoned trader, take advantage of gold spring selloffs by having
some crude plays with those gold profits you take in the winter WHEN the trend changes.

The markets will not be an easy navigating area in 2010. One of the key elements we need to be
on guard for is whether the markets will do the opposite of this market, the US dollar.
There has been a potential trend change in the US dollar and some believe will be the “surprise”
trade of 2010. Whether that is a correct forecast or not will depend on many variables.

This is where we come in. Over the course of 2010 we will be forever assessing the trends and
looking for great chart set-ups to take opportunity by the hand and to brave the adversity coming.

There is a great wisdom that is known by all the great traders and investors and it is this.

“If you do not take advantage of the 4 or 5 good rallies that occur during the year and ride them,
then the rest of the market will eventually nibble your profits and account balances away.”

Crude oil -Introduction

Crude oil prices behave much as any other commodity with wide price swings in times of shortage
or oversupply. The crude oil price cycle may extend over several years responding to changes in
demand as well as OPEC and non-OPEC supply.

The U.S. petroleum industry's price was heavily regulated through production or price controls
throughout much of the twentieth century. In the post World War II era U.S. oil prices at the
wellhead averaged $26.64 per barrel adjusted for inflation to 2008 dollars. In the absence of price
controls, the U.S. price would have tracked the world price averaging $28.68. Over the same post
war period the median for the domestic and the adjusted world price of crude oil was $19.60 in
2008 prices. That means that only fifty percent of the time from 1947 to 2008 have oil prices
exceeded $19.60 per barrel.  (See note in box on right.)

Until the March 28, 2000 adoption of the $22-$28 price band for the OPEC basket of crude, oil
prices only exceeded $24.00 per barrel in response to war or conflict in the Middle East. With
limited spare production capacity, OPEC abandoned its price band in 2005 and was powerless to
stem the surge in oil prices, which was reminiscent of the late 1970s.
 

Crude Oil Prices 1947 - August, 2009

Analysis and Interpretations
Fundamental Analysis of DLF and Unitech

DLF Ltd.

Face
Indust : Construction and Business
: DLF Group Value/M : 2.00/1
ry Contracting - Real Estate Group
Lot
BSE : 318.25  (-
: 532868 LTP (Rs.) P/E Ratio : 70.61
Code 0.65%) [NSE]
:
NSE : Market
: DLF ISIN No 54,019.
Code INE271C01023 Cap
86 Cr

Key Officials
Name Designation
K P Singh Chairman / Chair Person
T C Goyal Managing Director
Subhash Setia Co. Secretary & Compl. Officer

Other Details
Business Group DLF Group
Listings BSE , NSE
ISIN No. INE271C01023
Incorporation 18/06/1980
Public Issue Date 11/06/2007

Exchange BSE NSE

Last Traded Price  318.30  318.25
Last Traded Date  8/17/2010  8/17/2010
Last Traded Time  -  -
Change -1.65 -2.10
% Change   -0.52%   -0.66%
Day's Open  321.00  321.00
Previous Close  319.95  320.35
Day's High  323.70  323.95
Day's Low  316.50  316.20
Total Traded Volume (Rs. In Lakhs)  2,051.90  11,642.29
Bid Price  0.00  0.00
Bid Quantity  0  0
Offer Price  0.00  0.00
Offer Quantity  0  0
Total Traded Quantity  642,205  3,644,298
Number Of Trades  8,539  47,765

52 Week High / Low's

Exchange High High Date Low Low Date
BSE 490.80 10/21/2009 251.50 5/25/2010
NSE 519.90 10/23/2009 254.50 6/9/2010

Exchange Codes
BSE : 532868 NSE : DLFEQ
Sensex : 18,048.85 [-0.01% ] Nifty : 5,414.15 [-0.08% ]
Share Holding Pattern as
 30/06/2010  31/03/2010  31/12/2009
on :
Face Value  2.00  2.00  2.00
% % %
No. Of No. Of No. Of
  Holdin Holdin Holdin
Shares Shares Shares
g g g
PROMOTER'S HOLDING
 133480312  133480312  13348031
Indian Promoters  78.64  78.64  78.64
0 0 20
 133480312  133480312  13348031
Sub Total  78.64  78.64  78.64
0 0 20

NON PROMOTER'S HOLDING

Institutional Investors
Mutual Funds and UTI  2815379  0.17  4679336  0.28  6513708  0.38
Banks Fin. Inst. and
 6214052  0.37  6260667  0.37  5025286  0.30
Insurance
 25848043
FII's  255483456  15.05  250702383  14.77  15.23
0
 27001942
Sub Total  264512887  15.58  261642386  15.41  15.91
4
Other Investors
Private Corporate Bodies  24954965  1.47  27240332  1.60  28712745  1.69
NRI's/OCB's/Foreign
 2615172  0.15  2548727  0.15  2196400  0.13
Others
Others  1530469  0.09  4153113  0.24  1440032  0.08
Sub Total  29100606  1.71  33942172  2.00  32349177  1.91
General Public  68986607  4.06  67003212  3.95  60174279  3.55
 169740322  169739089  16973460
GRAND TOTAL 100.00 100.00 100.00
0 0 00

Unitech Ltd.
: Construction & Contracting - Business Face Value/M
Industry : Not Applicable : 2.00/1
Civil Group Lot
BSE : 85.20  (-
: 507878 LTP (Rs.) P/E Ratio : 39.42
Code 1.21%) [NSE]
NSE :
: UNITECH ISIN No : INE694A01020 Market Cap
Code 21,452.15 Cr

Key Officials

Name Designation

Ramesh Chandra Chairman / Chair Person

Sanjay Chandra Managing Director

Ajay Chandra Managing Director

Other Details

Business Group Not Applicable

Listings BSE , NSE

ISIN No. INE694A01020

Incorporation 09/02/1971

Exchange BSE NSE

52 Week High / Low's

Exchange High High Date Low Low Date
BSE 118.35 9/8/2009 65.10 5/25/2010
NSE 116.65 9/8/2009 62.25 5/21/2010

Exchange Codes
BSE : 507878 NSE : UNITECHEQ
5,414.15 [-0.08% ]
Sensex : 18,048.85 [-0.01% ] Nifty :

Share Holding Pattern as

 30/06/2010  31/03/2010  31/12/2009
on :
Face Value  2.00  2.00  2.00
No. Of % No. Of % No. Of %
 
Shares Holding Shares Holding Shares Holding
PROMOTER'S HOLDING
Foreign Promoters  3822000  0.15  3822000  0.16  3822000  0.16
Indian Promoters  1168559849  46.41  1093537171  44.84  1043537171  43.68
Sub Total  1172381849  46.56  1097359171  45.00  1047359171  43.84

NON PROMOTER'S HOLDING

Institutional Investors
Mutual Funds and UTI  8735665  0.35  11493143  0.47  13205381  0.55
Banks Fin. Inst. and Insurance  73992131  2.94  75177943  3.08  70080704  2.93
FII's  821147126  32.61  787203929  32.28  799643784  33.47
Sub Total  903874922  35.90  873875015  35.83  882929869  36.96
Other Investors
Private Corporate Bodies  174412306  6.93  180444835  7.40  193977238  8.12
NRI's/OCB's/Foreign Others  8884982  0.35  9338957  0.38  7511341  0.31
Others  2484639  0.10  4978006  0.20  11273210  0.47
Sub Total  185781927  7.38  194761798  7.99  212761789  8.91
General Public  255819130  10.16  272805063  11.19  245750218  10.29
GRAND TOTAL  2517857828 100.00  2438801047 100.00  2388801047 100.00

COMPARISON BETWEEN DLF AND UNITECH

CONCLUSION

The online trading is growing with a rapid pace with the rising level of education among the
customers. The other factors being that the Indian investors nowadays want to deal themselves in
trading rather than depending upon other middlemen.

Investors are increasingly finance-savvy, due to the proliferation of investment-related

information in newspaper, magazines; cable television and last but not least, the internet. Still
there is substantial variation in investment knowledge and experience across different individual
investors.

Some people feel that online trading is not secured but the people doing the trading online is
happy about the increasing security concerns among the companies.

The year 2008 has not been so good for the stock market and the Sensex and the Nifty has
been dipping and affecting the business negatively for these companies. This is due to the fact
that at these times people don’t prefer to open the Demat and Trading account. So the companies
have to reduce their account opening fees to attract the more and more customers.

There is an intense competition among the companies and the companies coming up with
new and new promotion schemes such as discounted and negotiable brokerages, zero balance
accounts, waving account opening fees and AMC etc.

Study also concludes that concludes that people are not much aware of commodity market
and while it’s going to be biggest market in India.

Study also conclude that people investment decision is influenced by their self and then on
the advice of their brokers. Very less no of people thinks what’s happening in Micro and Macro
Policies.