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In many cases the form of the functional relationship between the predictor variable
and the response variable is not linear. However, in some cases the form of the func-
tional relationship may be known either through previous experience or on the basis of
assumptions made the variables.
dN
= kN k constant.
dt
N (t) = N0 ekt
where the population size at time zero is N0 and so the response variable N and the
predictor variable t are related by an exponential function.
y = N0 ekt
y = β0 β1t
where the second model is obtained from the first by defining β0 = N0 and β1 = ek .
9.1
NONLINEAR REGRESSION Exponential Models
Example
Catalase is a common enzyme which is lost with exposure to sunlight. The concentration
of catalase (µg/10 mL) as a function of time (minutes) over a period of eighty minutes
is noted by Mitchell and Anderson (1965) with the following results.
0 121.0
10 74.0
30 30.0
50 12.0
60 6.7
70 3.7
80 2.0
A plot of concentration against time shows that the relationship between concentration
and time is not linear and it has been suggested that the relationship may be of the
form
y = aekt a, k constants
ln y = ln a + kt
9.2
NONLINEAR REGRESSION Exponential Models
Analysis of Variance
Source DF SS MS F P
Regression 1 14.050 14.050 1307.43 0.000
Residual Error 5 0.054 0.011
Total 6 14.104
y = 128.5e−0.05t .
9.3
NONLINEAR REGRESSION Power Function Models
The relationship between the response variable y and the predictor variable x can also
be in the form a power function where
y = β0 xβ1
ln y = ln β0 + β1 ln x
Example
The data below give the length (L) in centimetres and the weight (W ) in pounds for
yellow fin tuna in the Central Pacific region.
L W
70 14.3
80 21.5
90 30.8
100 42.5
110 56.8
120 74.1
130 94.7
140 119.0
160 179.0
180 256.0
A plot of weight against length indicates that the relationship is not linear and it is
thought that the relationship between length and weight is a power function of the form
W = β0 L β1 .
ln W = ln β0 + β1 ln L
9.4
NONLINEAR REGRESSION Power Function Models
Analysis of Variance
Source DF SS MS F P
Regression 1 7.6842 7.6842 6958826.13 0.000
Residual Error 8 0.0000 0.0000
Total 9 7.6842
W = 0.000033L3.06 .
9.5
NONLINEAR REGRESSION Logistic Growth Curves
The exponential model assumes that the population grows in size indefinitely. Most
populations do not grow in size indefinitely with the size being restricted by limited
food supply, lack of space, increasing predator activity or other control mechanisms.
Assuming an upper bound to the population size of K individuals, called the carrying
capacity of the environment, can lead to a population growth model of the form
N (t) = K 1 − e−kt
which was first proposed by E. A. Mitscherlich in 1939 and fits growth in agricultural
populations very well. A model which fits the growth of biological populations better is
one which assumes that the growth rate is related to both the current population size,
N (t) and the remaining carrying capacity of the environment, K − N (t).
In this model, the population grows slowly at first, reaches its maximum growth rate at
a population size of K/2 individuals and then grows more slowly towards the maximum
size of K individuals. A graph of this type of population growth is an S-shaped or
sigmoid curve. The simplest function having a sigmoid curve graph is the logistic
function which was introduced into population dynamics by the Belgian mathematician
P. F. Verhulst in 1838. The equation specifying the logistic growth curve is
K
N (t) = b, k, K positive constants
1 + be−kt
dN
= kN (K − N ).
dt
As the equation of the logistic curve involves three constants, namely b, k and K, any
attempt to fit the curve to a set of observed points by a linearization requires that one
of the constants is estimated before the other two are fitted in the linearized model.
A graph of the observed points usually allows a reasonable estimate of the carrying
capacity K and so the other two constants can be estimated from a suitable linear plot.
9.6
NONLINEAR REGRESSION Logistic Growth Curves
In 1913, Tor Carlson grew Sacharomyces, a common type of yeast, in laboratory cul-
tures. He began with a few yeast cells in a suitable nutritive solution and recorded
the population size for the next eighteen hours. For the results given below, assuming
logistic growth, find the constants b, k and K of the appropriate logistic growth curve.
0 9.6
1 18.3
2 29.0
3 47.2
4 71.1
5 119.1
6 174.6
7 257.3
8 350.7
9 441.0
10 513.3
11 559.7
12 594.8
13 629.4
14 640.8
15 651.1
16 655.9
17 659.6
18 661.8
A plot of the above observations suggests that the observations do follow a logistic
growth curve, and the carrying capacity can be estimated from the graph to be 665.
With K = 665, the following values of ln[(K − N )/N ] are obtained and a plot of these
values against t produces a graph in which the points do appear to lie on a straight line
and so the assumption that the observations follow a logistic growth curve is justified.
9.7
NONLINEAR REGRESSION Logistic Growth Curves
0 4.22
1 3.56
2 3.09
3 2.57
4 2.12
5 1.52
6 1.03
7 0.46
8 -0.11
9 -0.68
10 -1.22
11 -1.67
12 -2.14
13 -2.87
14 -3.28
15 -3.85
16 -4.28
17 -4.81
18 -5.33
Analysis of Variance
Source DF SS MS F P
Regression 1 160.52 160.52 43027.89 0.000
Residual Error 17 0.06 0.00
Total 18 160.58
with the line of best fit having intercept of 4.16 and slope -0.531, so that the appropriate
estimates of the constants are b = e4.16 = 64 and k = 0.5 to give the appropriate
sigmoid curve as
665
N (t) =
1 + 64e−0.5t
9.8
NONLINEAR REGRESSION Logistic Growth Curves
In SPSS the nonlinear regression can be fitted directly using the Analyse menu where
we specify the dependent variable, the nonlinear model and initial estimates of the
parameters as follows
Analyse>Regression>Nonlinear
Dependent [y]
Model Expression [b1/(1 + b2*EXP(-b3*x))]
Parameters
b1(665)
b2(50)
b3(1)
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Estimate Std. Error 95% Confidence Interval
Lower Bound Upper Bound
b1 663.022 1.703 659.412 666.632
b2 71.576 2.927 65.371 77.782
b3 .547 .006 .535 .559
9.9