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CHINA BRAZIL EARTH RESOURCES SATELLITE

CBERS 3&4

CBERS 3&4 Reliability Prediction and Derating


Analysis Guidelines

RB-MNG-1026 / 00 June 23, 2005


RB-MNG-1026 / 00

SUMMARY

1 - INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................ 1
2 - APPLICABLE AND REFERENCE DOCUMENTS ............................................................ 1
2.1 - Applicable Documents..................................................................................................... 1
2.2 - Reference Documents..................................................................................................... 1
3 - EQUIPMENT GENERAL DESCRIPTION .......................................................................... 1
4 - RELIABILITY ASSESMENT .............................................................................................. 1
4.1 - Reliability Block Diagram................................................................................................. 1
4.2 - Reliability Models............................................................................................................. 2
4.3 - Reliability Prediction ........................................................................................................ 5
5 - DERATING ANALYSIS...................................................................................................... 5
6 - CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMENDATIONS..................................................................... 6

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1 - INTRODUCTION
This document provides guidelines for the preparation of Reliability analysis reports for
CBERS 3&4. It may be used for the preparation of reliability reports required in equipment
PDR and CDR.
In the following it will be suggested a contents for each Chapter of the document.
In the Introduction Section, it is presented an introduction about scope of the reliability report.
It can highlight if the report is focus on parts count method or stress analysis.
See example below:
This report presents the BDR Reliability Prediction and Derating analysis based on the Parts
Stress Analysis Method.

2 - APPLICABLE AND REFERENCE DOCUMENTS

2.1 - Applicable Documents


This sub-section shall contain a list of all program documents applicable to the thermal
analysis, such as:
a) CBERS 3&4 Product Assurance Requirements (CB-PAD-0002)
b) ESA-PSS-01-301: ESA Derating Requirements and Application Rules for Electronic
Components
c) MIL-HDBK-217

2.2 - Reference Documents


This sub-section shall contain a list of all documents that were used as reference in the
thermal analysis, such as:
− handbooks,
− textbooks,
− technical reports,
− electrical scheme
− software package for reliability,

3 - EQUIPMENT GENERAL DESCRIPTION


This section shall contain a general description of the electrical and thermal features of the
equipment. This description shall support the preparation of the Reliability Block Diagram. If
necessary this description can make reference to other documents such as equipment block
diagram and electrical design.

4 - RELIABILITY ASSESMENT
This section shall present Reliability Block Diagram and the relevant mathematical
expressions modeling the reliability block diagrams.
Reliability block diagrams and mathematical reliability expressions shall be provided for PDR
and updated in the following phases of the project to reflect the latest design status.
Assumptions used in the analyses shall be stated in the convenient reliability report. The
validity of each assumption shall be verified throughout the development of the project and
presented at the Design Reviews.

4.1 - Reliability Block Diagram

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These diagrams will pictorially describe the important modes of operation of the product
under analysis. Reliability Block Diagram shall be prepared to show interdependencies
among all elements or functional groups of the product in each operational phase. The
purpose of the reliability block diagram is to show the various series/parallel block
combinations that result in product success.
This diagram will show the block(s) that are required to fail if an inadvertent output is to
occur.
They shall be drawn up so that each element or function employed in the subsystem can be
clearly identified.

4.2 - Mathematical Models


A mathematical model shall be generated for the product. These models will be based on the
block diagrams described in 4.1 and assigned a probability of occurrence to the performance
of the mode of operation considered.
In the following is presented a set of reliability block diagram and corresponding
mathematical models to help those who will prepare reliability assessment.
a. Series system
Reliability block diagram of series system is:

1 2 L m

If failure of each element is independent, the basic reliability and mission reliability models
are:
m
RS = R1 R2 L Rm = ∏ Ri
i =1

− RS - reliability of system
− Ri - reliability of ith element

If life distribution of each element is exponential distribution, then:


Ri (t ) = e − λi t
m m
RS (t ) = ∏ e −λit = exp(−∑ λi t ) = e −λS t
i =1 i =1
m
λ S = ∑ λi
i =1

− λS - failure rate of system


− λi - failure rate of ith element.

b. Parallel model
Parallel system is a system which failure occurs only in case of failure in all the elements that
constitute the system. Reliability block diagram of parallel system is as follows:

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M
m

If failure of each element is independent, mission reliability models are:


m
RS = 1 − ∏ (1 − Ri )
i =1

If life distribution of each element is exponential distribution, then:


m
RS = 1 − ∏ (1 − e −λit )
i =1

For two elements in parallel system the reliability model is:


RS = R1 + R2 − R1 R2

c. Cold redundancy system model


Cold redundancy system composed by n+1 elements is a system that one element is
operating while the other n elements are stand-by. When the operating element fails, a
switch can detect the failure and switch the system to another element. The reliability block
diagram of cold redundancy system is as follows:

M
n+1

For switch wholly reliable and failure of each element is independent, system reliability is:
n +1 n +1
λi
RS (t ) = ∑ (∏ )e −λk t
k =1 i =1 λi − λ k
i≠k

If all the elements has failure rates constant λ,then:


n
(λt ) i −λt
RS (t ) = ∑ e
i =0 i!

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For switch is not wholly reliable, if its life distribution is exponential and has a constant failure
rate λSw , then:

λ1
RS = e −λSW t + [e − λ t − e − ( λ
2 sw + λ1 ) t
]
λsw + λ1 − λ2
if reliability of switch is constant RSw , then:

λ1
RS (t ) = e −λ1t + Rsw (e −λ2t − e −λ1t )
λ1 − λ2
For system composed by two equal elements and switch considered with a constant failure
rate RSW, then:
RS (t ) = e − λt (1 + Rsw λt )
d. Majority voting redundancy system model (k-out-of-n redundancy)
Majority voting redundancy system normally designated, as k-out-of-n redundancy is a
system composed by n elements, which requires k elements to comply with its requirement.
Failure in n-k elements will not cause system failure. The reliability block diagram is as
follows:

k-out-of-n .
.
.
n

If all the reliability of each element is R, and the vote comparator is wholly reliable, the
mathematic model is:
n
RS = ∑ C ni R i (1 − R ) n −i
i=k

If reliability of vote comparator is RV, then the system reliability will be


n
RS = RV [∑ C ni R i (1 − R ) n −i ]
i =k

For a 2-out-of-3 redundancy system with three different elements and vote comparator with
reliability RV its reliability model is:
RS = RV ( R A RB + R A RC + RB RC − 2 R A RB RC )
For a 2-out-of-3 redundancy system with three equal elements and vote comparator with
reliability 1 its reliability model is:
RS = 3e −2 λt − 2e −3λt

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4.3 - Failure Rate Prediction


Unless contractually required otherwise, failure rates shall be derived using the procedures
and tables of latest revision of MIL-HDBK-217.
Early in the equipment design phase where complete stress analysis may not be available, a
preliminary failure rate estimate may be made using the failure rates listed in Appendix A of
MIL-HDBK-217 (Parts Count Method). However, one can also use Section 5 of the handbook
to determine failure rate of each part type to reflect nominal thermal and electrical stress
levels.
When a complete thermal and stress analysis is available, the preliminary failure rate
calculations may be updated if required by the project using appropriate tables and
procedures in Section 5.0 of MIL-HDBK-217. Reliability predictions for Critical Design
Reviews shall estimates failure rate by Part Stress Analyses Method. This method uses
failure rates and their modification factors reflecting actual application stress deratings
(temperature, voltage, current and power), environmental stress, and parts quality levels
All components of the equipments, including solder points, printed circuit board, mechanical
parts etc., shall be taken into account in the reliability prediction.

5 - DERATING ANALYSIS
This section shall present parts application-derating analysis to indicate actual stress and the
relative derating for each part. This analysis shall demonstrate that all EEE parts are been
used in compliance with derating criteria established in the document ESA-PSS-01-301.
In the following are presented some example for derating analysis.

ESA DERATING REQUIREMENTS ANALYSYS

ITEM DIGITAL INTEGRATED CIRCUIT


Supply Input Output
Voltage Voltage Current
Required Applied Required Applied Required Applied
U1
U2
U3
U4
U5
U6

ITEM DIODE
Voltage Junction
Reverse Current Temperature
Required Applied Required Applied Required Applied
D1
D2
D3
D4
D5
D6

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ITEM RESISTOR
Power
Dissipation Voltage
Required Applied Required Applied
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
R6

ITEM CAPACITORS
Voltage Temperature
Required Applied Required Applied
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
C6
C7
C8

ITEM TRANSISTORS
Reverse Current Power Junction
Voltage Dissipation Temperature
Required Applied Required Applied Required Applied Required Applied

Q1
Q2
Q3

6 - CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMENDATIONS


This section should state clearly if the Design has accomplished the Reliability requirements
and if not, what are the recommendations to overcome the problems identified.

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DOCUMENT PROPERTIES RECORD

Title: CBERS 3&4 Reliability Prediction and Derating Analysis Guidelines


Author Company Signature Date
José´Iram Mota Barbosa INPE 23/06/2005

Approved by:
Luiz Bueno INPE 23/06/2005

Keywords: Reliability, Analysis, Guideline

List of Authorized Access

Document Updating Record


First issue date: 23/06/2005
Revision Date Updated Pages Reference

To Be Defined Items Table


TBD number Description Affected Section

To Be Confirmed Items Table


TBC number Description Affected Section

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