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Table A Risk Score Calculation for Lal Pir Project
Source: AES Corporation, 2002 Annual Report (Arlington: AES Corporation, 2003).
Exhibit 2 AES Consolidated Balance Sheet
Stockholder’s Equity
Common Stock 6 5 5 4 2
Additional Paid in Capital 5312 5225 5172 2615 1243
Retained Earnings -700 2809 2551 1120 892
Treasury Stock - - -507 - -
Other Equity -4959 -2500 -1679 -1102 -343
Total Shareholders' Equity -341 5539 5542 2637 1794
Total Liabilities + Shareholders' Equity 33776 36812 33038 20880 10781
Source: “AES Annual Balance Sheet”, December 2003, available from OneSource Information Services, <http://www.onesource.com>
Exhibit 7b AES Selected Financial Data
EBIT
Credit Coverage Default
Rating Ratio Spread
Aaa 21.1x 0.20%
Aa1 15.1x 0.30%
Aa2 10.9x 0.40%
Aa3 8.1x 0.60%
A1 6.3x 0.70%
A2 5.2x 0.90%
A3 4.6x 1.20%
Baa1 4.2x 1.50%
Baa2 3.9x 1.90%
Baa3 3.6x 2.30%
Ba1 3.2x 2.90%
Ba2 2.6x 3.60%
Ba3 1.9x 4.30%
B1 1.0x 5.20%
B2 0.8x 6.20%
B3 0.6x 7.40%
Caa1 0.4x 8.60%
Caa2 0.1x 10.00%
Caa3 0.1x 11.40%
Cash Flow
Operating Profit 69.4 69.1 68.8 68.5 68.3 68.0
Addback Depreciation 30.6 31.3 31.9 32.5 33.1 33.8
Maintenance CapEx (12.5) (12.5) (12.6) (12.6) (12.7) (12.7)
Pre-Tax, Pre-Finance Cash Flow 87.5 87.8 88.1 88.4 88.7 89.0
Interest (44.1) (42.7) (41.1) (39.4) (37.5) (35.4)
Principal (14.2) (15.5) (16.9) (18.4) (20.1) (22.0)
New Debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Taxes (8.8) (9.2) (9.7) (10.2) (10.8) (11.4)
Levered Equity Cash Flow 20.3 20.4 20.4 20.4 20.3 20.2
Lev Equity Cash Flow with TV 20.3 20.4 20.4 20.4 20.3 20.2
Unlevered Cash Flow 63.2 63.6 64.0 64.4 64.8 65.2
Unlevered Cash Flow with TV 63.2 63.6 64.0 64.4 64.8 65.2
Capitalization
Initial PP&E 612.5 625.0 637.6 650.3 662.9 675.7
Goodwill 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4
Accum Depreciation (30.6) (61.9) (93.8) (126.3) (159.4) (193.2)
Total Assets 604.3 585.6 566.3 546.4 525.9 504.9
Debt 416.5 401.0 384.1 365.7 345.6 323.6
Equity 187.8 184.6 182.1 180.7 180.3 181.3
Total Capital 604.3 585.6 566.3 546.4 525.9 504.9
67.7 67.4 67.1 66.8 66.6 66.3 66.0 65.7 65.4 65.1
34.4 35.1 35.7 36.3 37.0 37.6 38.3 39.0 39.6 40.3
(12.8) (12.8) (12.9) (12.9) (12.9) (13.0) (13.0) (13.1) (13.1) (13.2)
89.4 89.7 90.0 90.3 90.6 90.9 91.2 91.6 91.9 92.2
(33.2) (30.7) (28.0) (25.0) (21.8) (18.2) (14.3) (9.9) (5.2) 0.0
(24.1) (26.4) (29.0) (31.8) (34.9) (38.3) (42.1) (46.2) (50.8) (0.0)
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
(12.1) (12.9) (13.7) (14.6) (15.7) (16.8) (18.1) (19.5) (21.1) (22.8)
20.0 19.7 19.3 18.9 18.3 17.6 16.8 15.9 14.8 69.4
20.0 19.7 19.3 18.9 18.3 17.6 16.8 15.9 14.8 69.4
65.7 66.1 66.5 66.9 67.3 67.7 68.2 68.6 69.0 69.4
65.7 66.1 66.5 66.9 67.3 67.7 68.2 68.6 69.0 69.4
688.4 701.2 714.1 727.0 739.9 752.9 766.0 779.0 792.2 805.3
22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4
(227.6) (262.7) (298.4) (334.7) (371.7) (409.4) (447.7) (486.6) (526.2) (566.5)
483.2 461.0 438.1 414.7 390.6 365.9 340.7 314.8 288.3 261.2
299.4 273.0 244.1 212.3 177.4 139.1 97.0 50.8 (0.0) (0.0)
183.8 187.9 194.1 202.4 213.2 226.8 243.6 264.0 288.3 261.2
483.2 461.0 438.1 414.7 390.6 365.9 340.7 314.8 288.3 261.2
2020 2021 2022 2023
330.5 331.6 332.8 333.9
105.7 106.1 106.5 106.9
(40.9) (41.6) (42.3) (42.9)
64.8 64.5 64.2 63.9
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
(22.7) (22.6) (22.5) (22.4)
42.1 41.9 41.8 41.6
300 MW gas fired combined cycle plant currently under construction 25.0% 35.1%
123 MW hydroelectric power plant located on the San Juan river in wes 35.0% 40.8%
Largest coal-fired power station in western Europe. It can produce eno 0.0% 29.5%
Distribution company that serves a population of 14 million in Sao Paul 34.0% 30.0%
277 MW fossil fuel plant located in Tocopilla, 1500 km north of Santiag 17.0% 35.2%
360 MW gas turbine facility located 25 kilometers southeast of Dhaka, 0.0% 33.3%
600 MW coal fired power plant 25.0% 32.9%
337 MW coal fired power plant 23.0% 35.1%
210 MW Oil-fired facility supplying the capital city of Santo Domingo 25.0% 28.7%
Joint Venture with the Government of Orissa. Two 210 MW P.C. coal-fire 7.9% 30.4%
Oil fired 140 MW cogeneration facility - under contracts of up to 10 yea 35.0% 42.5%
832 MW natural gas-fired plant 37.5% 39.5%
Distribution Company serving 380,000 customers 30.0% 36.5%
Distribution Company serving Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia. 20.0% 26.1%
600 MW gas-fired combined cycle power plant 34.0% 32.2%
en from http://www.aes.com/businesses/default.asp.
Counterparty
Operational / Regulator
Credit / Construction
Technical y
Performance
3.5% 7.0% 10.5% 14.5%
Risk Scores
Operational/ Regulator
Construction Currency
Technical y
Risk Scores
Business
Counterpa Contract % Puntos
Commodity Specific risk
rty enf./Legal Basicos
score
3 3 3 3.00 15.0%
- 2 1 1.43 7.1%
2 2 3 1.89 9.5%
1 3 2 2.15 10.7%
1 - 2 0.93 4.7%
1 1 1 0.72 3.6%
2 1 - 1.01 5.0%
1 2 1 1.43 7.15%
3 3 3 2.90 14.5%
3 2 - 1.65 8.2%
3 - - 0.69 3.4%
3 - 2 1.18 5.9%
1 - - 0.58 2.9%
3 3 3 2.83 14.1%
2 3 2 2.26 11.3%
Betas de equidad sin apalancamiento por línea de negocio
Un-levered Equity Betas by Line of Business
CG Contract Generati 0.25 10 Year US Treasury Bon
LU Large Utility 0.25 US Risk Premium
GD Growth Distributio 0.25
CS Competitive Suppl 0.50
Valor de
Business / Project Country Debt to Cap. Mercado del Default Spread
Patrimonio E/V
Andres Dominican Republic 35% 74% 3.57%
Caracoles Argentina 41% 71% 3.57%
Drax United Kingdom 30% 77% 3.57%
Eletropaulo Brazil 30% 77% 2.89%
Gener Chile 35% 74% 4.34%
Haripur Bangladesh 33% 75% 4.34%
Kelvin South Africa 33% 75% 4.34%
Lal Pir Pakistan 35% 74% 3.57%
Los Mina Dominican Republic 29% 78% 1.85%
OPGC India 30% 77% 3.57%
Ottana Italy 43% 70% 4.34%
Red Oak USA 40% 72% 3.57%
Rivnoblenergo Ukraine 37% 73% 3.57%
Telasi Georgia 26% 79% 1.85%
Uruguaiana Brazil 32% 76% 1.85%
Beta
Sovereign Spread Line of Business desapalancado Beta Apalancado Ke
Cash Flow
Operating Profit 69.4 69.1 68.8 68.5 68.3 68.0
Addback Depreciation 30.6 31.3 31.9 32.5 33.1 33.8
Maintenance CapEx (12.5) (12.5) (12.6) (12.6) (12.7) (12.7)
Pre-Tax, Pre-Finance Cash Flow 87.5 87.8 88.1 88.4 88.7 89.0
Interest (44.1) (42.7) (41.1) (39.4) (37.5) (35.4)
Principal (14.2) (15.5) (16.9) (18.4) (20.1) (22.0)
New Debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Taxes (8.8) (9.2) (9.7) (10.2) (10.8) (11.4)
Levered Equity Cash Flow 20.3 20.4 20.4 20.4 20.3 20.2
Lev Equity Cash Flow with TV 20.3 20.4 20.4 20.4 20.3 20.2
Unlevered Cash Flow 63.2 63.6 64.0 64.4 64.8 65.2
Unlevered Cash Flow with TV 63.2 63.6 64.0 64.4 64.8 65.2
Capitalization
Initial PP&E 612.5 625.0 637.6 650.3 662.9 675.7
Goodwill 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4
Accum Depreciation (30.6) (61.9) (93.8) (126.3) (159.4) (193.2)
Total Assets 604.3 585.6 566.3 546.4 525.9 504.9
Debt 416.5 401.0 384.1 365.7 345.6 323.6
Equity 187.8 184.6 182.1 180.7 180.3 181.3
Total Capital 604.3 585.6 566.3 546.4 525.9 504.9
67.7 67.4 67.1 66.8 66.6 66.3 66.0 65.7 65.4 65.1
34.4 35.1 35.7 36.3 37.0 37.6 38.3 39.0 39.6 40.3
(12.8) (12.8) (12.9) (12.9) (12.9) (13.0) (13.0) (13.1) (13.1) (13.2)
89.4 89.7 90.0 90.3 90.6 90.9 91.2 91.6 91.9 92.2
(33.2) (30.7) (28.0) (25.0) (21.8) (18.2) (14.3) (9.9) (5.2) 0.0
(24.1) (26.4) (29.0) (31.8) (34.9) (38.3) (42.1) (46.2) (50.8) (0.0)
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
(12.1) (12.9) (13.7) (14.6) (15.7) (16.8) (18.1) (19.5) (21.1) (22.8)
20.0 19.7 19.3 18.9 18.3 17.6 16.8 15.9 14.8 69.4
20.0 19.7 19.3 18.9 18.3 17.6 16.8 15.9 14.8 69.4
65.7 66.1 66.5 66.9 67.3 67.7 68.2 68.6 69.0 69.4
65.7 66.1 66.5 66.9 67.3 67.7 68.2 68.6 69.0 69.4
688.4 701.2 714.1 727.0 739.9 752.9 766.0 779.0 792.2 805.3
22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4
(227.6) (262.7) (298.4) (334.7) (371.7) (409.4) (447.7) (486.6) (526.2) (566.5)
483.2 461.0 438.1 414.7 390.6 365.9 340.7 314.8 288.3 261.2
299.4 273.0 244.1 212.3 177.4 139.1 97.0 50.8 (0.0) (0.0)
183.8 187.9 194.1 202.4 213.2 226.8 243.6 264.0 288.3 261.2
483.2 461.0 438.1 414.7 390.6 365.9 340.7 314.8 288.3 261.2
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
90.0 89.6 89.1 88.6 87.9 87.1 86.2 85.1 83.9 82.6
90.03 89.62 89.13 88.55 87.88 87.09 86.18 85.14 83.94 82.59
2020 2021 2022 2023
330.5 331.6 332.8 333.9
105.7 106.1 106.5 106.9
(40.9) (41.6) (42.3) (42.9)
64.8 64.5 64.2 63.9
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
(22.7) (22.6) (22.5) (22.4)
42.1 41.9 41.8 41.6