Monthly Inflation Rate of Pakistan And United Kingdom

Monthly (1+ inf

(1+ inf Ef=ao+
Exchange pk)/
Month Inf PK Inf UK 1+Inf Pak 1+ inf UK pk)/ (a1*Inflation
Rate (1+inf uk) (1+inf uk)- differential)+u
Return 1

Jan-16 3.00% 0.30% 1.0300 1.0030 1.0269 2.69% 2.84%

Feb-16 -2.44% 3.60% 0.30% 1.0360 1.0030 1.0329 3.29% 2.84%
Mar-16 -3.03% 3.80% 0.50% 1.0380 1.0050 1.0328 3.28% 2.84%
Apr-16 1.87% 3.80% 0.30% 1.0380 1.0030 1.0349 3.49% 2.84%
May-16 2.90% 3.60% 0.30% 1.0360 1.0030 1.0329 3.29% 2.84% 0.07
Jun-16 -1.52% 3.70% 0.50% 1.0370 1.0050 1.0318 3.18% 2.84%
-7.79% 4.12% 0.60% 1.0412 1.0060 1.0350 3.50% 2.84% 0.06
Jul-16
Aug-16 -0.45% 3.69% 0.60% 1.0369 1.0060 1.0307 3.07% 2.84%
0.05
Sep-16 0.25% 3.70% 1.00% 1.0370 1.0100 1.0267 2.67% 2.84%
Oct-16 -2.92% 3.80% 0.90% 1.0380 1.0090 1.0287 2.87% 2.84% 0.04
Nov-16 -4.97% 3.80% 1.20% 1.0380 1.0120 1.0257 2.57% 2.84%
3.05% 3.70% 1.60% 1.0370 1.0160 1.0207 2.07% 2.83% 0.03
Dec-16
Jan-17 -2.45% 3.80% 1.80% 1.0380 1.0180 1.0196 1.96% 2.83% 0.02
Feb-17 2.91% 4.10% 2.30% 1.0410 1.0230 1.0176 1.76% 2.83%
Mar-17 -2.52% 4.50% 2.30% 1.0450 1.0230 1.0215 2.15% 2.83% 0.01
Apr-17 1.87% 4.80% 2.70% 1.0480 1.0270 1.0204 2.04% 2.83%
0
May-17 2.87% 4.80% 2.90% 1.0480 1.0290 1.0185 1.85% 2.83% 1 2 3 4
Jun-17 -0.10% 4.20% 2.60% 1.0420 1.0260 1.0156 1.56% 2.83%
Jul-17 1.07% 4.20% 2.60% 1.0420 1.0260 1.0156 1.56% 2.83%
Aug-17 1.86% 4.20% 2.90% 1.0420 1.0290 1.0126 1.26% 2.83%
Sep-17 -1.90% 4.10% 3.00% 1.0410 1.0300 1.0107 1.07% 2.83%
Oct-17 3.49% 4.00% 3.00% 1.0400 1.0300 1.0097 0.97% 2.83%
Nov-17 -1.15% 4.20% 3.10% 1.0420 1.0310 1.0107 1.07% 2.83%
Dec-17 1.89% 4.70% 3.00% 1.0470 1.0300 1.0165 1.65% 2.83%
Jan-18 4.89% 4.60% 3.00% 1.0460 1.0300 1.0155 1.55% 2.83%
Feb-18 5.55% 4.30% 2.70% 1.0430 1.0270 1.0156 1.56% 2.83%
Mar-18 -3.35% 4.10% 2.50% 1.0410 1.0250 1.0156 1.56% 2.83%
Apr-18 6.50% 5.00% 2.40% 1.0500 1.0240 1.0254 2.54% 2.84%
May-18 -2.74% 5.10% 2.40% 1.0510 1.0240 1.0264 2.64% 2.84%
Jun-18 -2.09% 5.40% 2.40% 1.0540 1.0240 1.0293 2.93% 2.84%
Jul-18 4.13% 5.83% 2.50% 1.0583 1.0250 1.0325 3.25% 2.84%
Aug-18 1.26% 5.90% 2.70% 1.0590 1.0270 1.0312 3.12% 2.84%
Sep-18 -0.87% 5.80% 2.40% 1.0580 1.0240 1.0332 3.32% 2.84%
Oct-18 -0.32% 6.70% 2.40% 1.0670 1.0240 1.0420 4.20% 2.84%
Nov-18 7.03% 6.70% 2.30% 1.0670 1.0230 1.0430 4.30% 2.84%
Dec-18 3.85% 6.90% 2.10% 1.0690 1.0210 1.0470 4.70% 2.84%
Jan-19 -0.78% 7.70% 1.80% 1.0770 1.0180 1.0580 5.80% 2.84%
Feb-19 2.79% 7.70% 1.90% 1.0770 1.0190 1.0569 5.69% 2.84%
Mar-19 1.31% 7.90% 1.90% 1.0790 1.0190 1.0589 5.89% 2.84%
Apr-19 0.18% 7.20% 1.80% 1.0720 1.0180 1.0530 5.30% 2.84%
 Regression Analysis
0.07

0.06

0.05

0.04

0.03

0.02

0.01

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940
 Monthly Interest rates of Pakistan and UK
Exchange (1+Int PK)/ (1+Int PK)/
Month Int PK Int UK 1+ Int PK 1+ Int UK
rate Return (1+Int UK) (1+Int UK)-1
Apr-19 0.109900 1.1099 1.0075 1.1016 10.16%
Mar-19 -2.44% 0.106600 0.00750 1.1066 1.0075 1.0984 9.84%
Feb-19 -3.03% 0.106300 0.00750 1.1063 1.0075 1.0981 9.81%
Jan-19 1.87% 0.102900 0.00750 1.1029 1.0075 1.0947 9.47%
Dec-18 2.90% 0.105600 0.00750 1.1056 1.0075 1.0974 9.74%
Nov-18 -1.52% 0.089900 0.00750 1.0899 1.0075 1.0818 8.18%
Oct-18 -7.79% 0.087300 0.00750 1.0873 1.0075 1.0792 7.92%
Sep-18 -0.45% 0.080200 0.00750 1.0802 1.0075 1.0722 7.22%
Aug-18 0.25% 0.079100 0.00750 1.0791 1.0075 1.0711 7.11%
Jul-18 -2.92% 0.078200 0.00500 1.0782 1.0050 1.0728 7.28%
Jun-18 -4.97% 0.070000 0.00500 1.0700 1.0050 1.0647 6.47%
May-18 3.05% 0.067300 0.00500 1.0673 1.0050 1.0620 6.20%
Apr-18 -2.45% 0.064200 0.00500 1.0642 1.0050 1.0589 5.89%
Mar-18 2.91% 0.064300 0.00500 1.0643 1.0050 1.0590 5.90%
Feb-18 -2.52% 0.064200 0.00500 1.0642 1.0050 1.0589 5.89%
Jan-18 1.87% 0.064100 0.00500 1.0641 1.0050 1.0588 5.88%
Dec-17 2.87% 0.062600 0.00500 1.0626 1.0050 1.0573 5.73%
Nov-17 -0.10% 0.062100 0.00500 1.0621 1.0050 1.0568 5.68%
Oct-17 1.07% 0.062300 0.00250 1.0623 1.0025 1.0597 5.97%
Sep-17 1.86% 0.062000 0.00250 1.0620 1.0025 1.0594 5.94%
Aug-17 -1.90% 0.061800 0.00250 1.0618 1.0025 1.0592 5.92%
Jul-17 3.49% 0.062100 0.00250 1.0621 1.0025 1.0595 5.95%
Jun-17 -1.15% 0.062300 0.00250 1.0623 1.0025 1.0597 5.97%
May-17 1.89% 0.062400 0.00250 1.0624 1.0025 1.0598 5.98%
Apr-17 4.89% 0.062600 0.00250 1.0626 1.0025 1.0600 6.00%
Mar-17 5.55% 0.062600 0.00250 1.0626 1.0025 1.0600 6.00%
Feb-17 -3.35% 0.062500 0.00250 1.0625 1.0025 1.0599 5.99%
Jan-17 6.50% 0.062400 0.00250 1.0624 1.0025 1.0598 5.98%
Dec-16 -2.74% 0.062200 0.00250 1.0622 1.0025 1.0596 5.96%
Nov-16 -2.09% 0.062200 0.00250 1.0622 1.0025 1.0596 5.96%
Oct-16 4.13% 0.061800 0.00250 1.0618 1.0025 1.0592 5.92%
Sep-16 1.26% 0.062400 0.00250 1.0624 1.0025 1.0598 5.98%
Aug-16 -0.87% 0.062100 0.00250 1.0621 1.0025 1.0595 5.95%
Jul-16 -0.32% 0.061800 0.00500 1.0618 1.0050 1.0565 5.65%
Jun-16 7.03% 0.062000 0.00500 1.0620 1.0050 1.0567 5.67%
May-16 3.85% 0.062200 0.00500 1.0622 1.0050 1.0569 5.69%
Apr-16 -0.78% 0.064500 0.00500 1.0645 1.0050 1.0592 5.92%
Mar-16 2.79% 0.064800 0.00500 1.0648 1.0050 1.0595 5.95%
Feb-16 1.31% 0.064600 0.00500 1.0646 1.0050 1.0593 5.93%
Jan-16 0.18% 0.064400 0.00500 1.0644 1.0050 1.0591 5.91%
Ef=ao+a1(1+Int PK)/
(1+Int UK)-1 0.12

-0.89%
0.1
-0.65%
-0.63% 0.08
-0.38%
-0.58% 0.06
0.57%
0.76% 0.04
1.27%
1.35% 0.02
1.22%
1.82% 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839
2.02%
2.25% -0.02
2.24%
2.25%
2.25%
2.36%
2.40%
2.19%
2.21%
2.23%
2.21%
2.19%
2.19%
2.17%
2.17%
2.18%
2.19%
2.20%
2.20%
2.23%
2.19%
2.21%
2.42%
2.41%
2.39%
2.23%
2.20%
2.22%
2.23%
8293031323334353637383940
 Monthly (1+ inf (1+Int
Exchange pk)/ PK)/
Month Rate (1+inf (1+Int
Return uk)-1 UK)-1

Jan-16 2.69% 10.16%

Feb-16 -2.44% 3.29% 9.84%
Mar-16 -3.03% 3.28% 9.81%
Apr-16 1.87% 3.49% 9.47%
May-16 2.90% 3.29% 9.74%
Jun-16 -1.52% 3.18% 8.18%
Jul-16 -7.79% 3.50% 7.92%
Aug-16 -0.45% 3.07% 7.22%
Sep-16 0.25% 2.67% 7.11%
Oct-16 -2.92% 2.87% 7.28%
Nov-16 -4.97% 2.57% 6.47%
Dec-16 3.05% 2.07% 6.20% SUMMARY OUTPUT
Jan-17 -2.45% 1.96% 5.89%
Feb-17 2.91% 1.76% 5.90% Regression Statistics
Mar-17 -2.52% 2.15% 5.89% Multiple R
Apr-17 1.87% 2.04% 5.88% R Square
May-17 2.87% 1.85% 5.73% Adjusted R Square
Jun-17 -0.10% 1.56% 5.68% Standard Error
Jul-17 1.07% 1.56% 5.97% Observations
Aug-17 1.86% 1.26% 5.94%
Sep-17 -1.90% 1.07% 5.92% ANOVA
Oct-17 3.49% 0.97% 5.95%
Nov-17 -1.15% 1.07% 5.97% Regression
Dec-17 1.89% 1.65% 5.98% Residual
Jan-18 4.89% 1.55% 6.00% Total
Feb-18 5.55% 1.56% 6.00%
Mar-18 -3.35% 1.56% 5.99%
Apr-18 6.50% 2.54% 5.98% Intercept
May-18 -2.74% 2.64% 5.96% 0.0269192423
Jun-18 -2.09% 2.93% 5.96% 0.1016377171
Jul-18 4.13% 3.25% 5.92%
Aug-18 1.26% 3.12% 5.98%
Sep-18 -0.87% 3.32% 5.95%
Oct-18 -0.32% 4.20% 5.65%
Nov-18 7.03% 4.30% 5.67%
Dec-18 3.85% 4.70% 5.69%
Jan-19 -0.78% 5.80% 5.92%
Feb-19 2.79% 5.69% 5.95%
Mar-19 1.31% 5.89% 5.93%
Apr-19 0.18% 5.30% 5.91%
Regression Statistics
0.15628
0.02442
-0.02897
0.03266
39

df SS MS F Significance F
2 0.0009877847 0.000493892 0.463151 0.6329947894
37 0.0394558166 0.001066373
39 0.0404436013

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%
0 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
0.2723598383 0.3848969276 0.707617595 0.483616 -0.5075154094 1.052235086 -0.507515409
-0.0642995486 0.1815311318 -0.35420673 0.725195 -0.4321165568 0.30351746 -0.432116557
Upper 95.0%
#N/A
1.052235086
0.3035174597
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.189355
R Square 0.035855
Adjusted R 0.010483
Standard E 2.414954
Observatio 40

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 8.241613 8.241613 1.41317 0.241907
Residual 38 221.6162 5.832005
Total 39 229.8578

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 5.973983 0.407449 14.66192 3.16E-17 5.149146 6.79882 5.149146 6.79882
X Variable -0.04196 0.035294 -1.18877 0.241907 -0.11341 0.029493 -0.11341 0.029493
 interest
year interest rate of 1+int 1+int (1+int china)/ (1+int china)/
rate china japan china japan (1+int japan) (1+int japan)-1
1 1978 5 2.69 6.00 3.69 1.86 0.86
2 1979 5.2 3.31 6.20 4.31 1.57 0.57
3 1980 5.4 5.50 6.40 6.50 0.98 -0.02
4 1981 5.4 4.44 6.40 5.44 1.22 0.22
5 1982 5.76 3.75 6.76 4.75 1.54 0.54
6 1983 5.76 3.75 6.76 4.75 1.54 0.54
7 1984 5.76 3.50 6.76 4.50 1.65 0.65
8 1985 7.2 3.50 8.20 4.50 2.06 1.06
9 1986 7.2 2.32 8.20 3.32 3.11 2.11
10 1987 7.2 1.76 8.20 2.76 4.09 3.09
11 1988 8.64 1.76 9.64 2.76 4.91 3.91
12 1989 11.34 1.97 12.34 2.97 5.76 4.76
13 1990 8.64 3.56 9.64 4.56 2.43 1.43
14 1991 7.56 4.14 8.56 5.14 1.83 0.83
15 1992 7.56 3.35 8.56 4.35 2.26 1.26
16 1993 10.98 2.14 11.98 3.14 5.12 4.12
17 1994 10.98 1.70 11.98 2.70 6.46 5.46
18 1995 10.98 0.90 11.98 1.90 12.18 11.18
19 1996 7.47 0.30 8.47 1.30 24.86 23.86
20 1997 5.67 0.30 6.67 1.30 18.82 17.82
21 1998 3.78 0.27 4.78 1.27 14.21 13.21
22 1999 2.25 0.12 3.25 1.12 19.27 18.27
23 2000 2.25 0.07 3.25 1.07 31.95 30.95
24 2001 2.25 0.06 3.25 1.06 39.42 38.42
25 2002 1.98 0.04 2.98 1.04 55.64 54.64
26 2003 1.98 0.04 2.98 1.04 46.59 45.59
27 2004 2.25 0.08 3.25 1.08 28.04 27.04
28 2005 2.25 0.27 3.25 1.27 8.30 7.30
29 2006 2.52 0.68 3.52 1.68 3.69 2.69
30 2007 4.14 0.81 5.14 1.81 5.12 4.12
31 2008 2.25 0.59 3.25 1.59 3.82 2.82
32 2009 2.25 0.43 3.25 1.43 5.17 4.17
33 2010 2.75 0.50 3.75 1.50 5.50 4.50
34 2011 3.5 0.46 4.50 1.46 7.58 6.58
35 2012 3 0.48 4.00 1.48 6.28 5.28
36 2013 3 0.54 4.00 1.54 5.53 4.53
37 2014 2.75 0.42 3.75 1.42 6.62 5.62
38 2015 1.5 0.41 2.50 1.41 3.69 2.69
39 2016 1.5 0.30 2.50 1.30 4.99 3.99
40 2017 1.5 0.32 2.50 1.32 4.68 3.68
exchange % change in
rate exchange rate
1.68 0.00
1.55 -7.64
1.50 -3.64
1.70 13.76
1.89 11.03
1.98 4.39
2.32 17.43
2.94 26.58
3.45 17.58
3.72 7.80
3.72 0.00
3.77 1.16
4.78 27.04
5.32 11.29
5.51 3.59
5.76 4.49
8.62 49.58
8.35 -3.10
8.31 -0.45
8.29 -0.29
8.28 -0.13
8.28 -0.01
8.28 0.00
8.28 -0.02
8.28 0.00
8.28 0.00
8.28 0.00
8.19 -1.00
7.97 -2.70
7.61 -4.59
6.95 -8.66
6.83 -1.69
6.77 -0.90
6.46 -4.56
6.31 -2.31
6.20 -1.85
6.14 -0.84
6.23 1.37
6.64 6.70
6.76 1.72
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.078335
R Square 0.006136
Adjusted R -0.02002
Standard E 7.622932
Observatio 40

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 13.63373 13.63373 0.234623 0.630897
Residual 38 2208.145 58.10909
Total 39 2221.779

CoefficientStandard Et Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95. Upper 95.0%

Intercept 4.925449 3.157791 1.559777 0.127103 -1.46716 11.31806 -1.46716 11.31806
X Variable 0.243544 0.502797 0.484379 0.630897 -0.77431 1.261403 -0.77431 1.261403
 inflation inflation
rate of rate of 1+inf 1+inf (1+inf china)/ (1+inf china)/
sr no year china japan china japan (1+inf japan) (1+inf japan)-1
1 1978 40.09 4.21 41.09 5.21 7.89 6.89
2 1979 33.39 3.70 34.39 4.70 7.31 6.31
3 1980 35.14 7.78 36.14 8.78 4.12 3.12
4 1981 19.69 4.91 20.69 5.91 3.50 2.50
5 1982 9.94 2.74 10.94 3.74 2.92 1.92
6 1983 27.26 1.90 28.26 2.90 9.74 8.74
7 1984 19.86 2.26 20.86 3.26 6.40 5.40
8 1985 30.70 2.03 31.70 3.03 10.46 9.46
9 1986 19.48 0.60 20.48 1.60 12.83 11.83
10 1987 19.88 0.13 20.88 1.13 18.54 17.54
11 1988 14.68 0.68 15.68 1.68 9.34 8.34
12 1989 17.03 2.27 18.03 3.27 5.51 4.51
13 1990 26.04 3.08 27.04 4.08 6.63 5.63
14 1991 21.78 3.25 22.78 4.25 5.36 4.36
15 1992 15.43 1.76 16.43 2.76 5.95 4.95
16 1993 12.73 1.24 13.73 2.24 6.12 5.12
17 1994 11.44 0.70 12.44 1.70 7.34 6.34
18 1995 8.23 -0.13 9.23 0.87 10.59 9.59
19 1996 7.36 0.14 8.36 1.14 7.35 6.35
20 1997 6.13 1.75 7.13 2.75 2.60 1.60
21 1998 5.11 0.66 6.11 1.66 3.68 2.68
22 1999 3.34 -0.34 4.34 0.66 6.58 5.58
23 2000 3.84 -0.68 4.84 0.32 14.98 13.98
24 2001 3.57 -0.74 4.57 0.26 17.58 16.58
25 2002 2.49 -0.92 3.49 0.08 45.61 44.61
26 2003 2.81 -0.26 3.81 0.74 5.12 4.12
27 2004 1.05 -0.01 2.05 0.99 2.07 1.07
28 2005 3.05 -0.28 4.05 0.72 5.65 4.65
29 2006 3.39 0.25 4.39 1.25 3.52 2.52
30 2007 4.41 0.06 5.41 1.06 5.10 4.10
31 2008 8.72 1.38 9.72 2.38 4.08 3.08
32 2009 0.35 -1.35 1.35 -0.35 -3.83 -4.83
33 2010 1.41 -0.72 2.41 0.28 8.61 7.61
34 2011 3.34 -0.27 4.34 0.73 5.93 4.93
35 2012 3.01 -0.05 4.01 0.95 4.23 3.23
36 2013 1.79 0.35 2.79 1.35 2.07 1.07
37 2014 4.72 2.76 5.72 3.76 1.52 0.52
38 2015 4.35 0.79 5.35 1.79 2.99 1.99
39 2016 3.79 -0.12 4.79 0.88 5.42 4.42
40 2017 2.18 0.47 3.18 1.47 2.17 1.17
exchange % change in
rate exchange rate
1.68
1.55 -7.64
1.50 -3.64
1.70 13.76
1.89 11.03
1.98 4.39
2.32 17.43
2.94 26.58
3.45 17.58
3.72 7.80
3.72 0.00
3.77 1.16
4.78 27.04
5.32 11.29
5.51 3.59
5.76 4.49
8.62 49.58
8.35 -3.10
8.31 -0.45
8.29 -0.29
8.28 -0.13
8.28 -0.01
8.28 0.00
8.28 -0.02
8.28 0.00
8.28 0.00
8.28 0.00
8.19 -1.00
7.97 -2.70
7.61 -4.59
6.95 -8.66
6.83 -1.69
6.77 -0.90
6.46 -4.56
6.31 -2.31
6.20 -1.85
6.14 -0.84
6.23 1.37
6.64 6.70
6.76 1.72