Chapter 4: Example 1

Forecasting Moving averages - 3 period moving average

Enter
Enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area
area Forecasting

35

Value
30
Data Error analysis 25
Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared 20
January 10 15
February 12 10
March 13 5
April 16 11.67 4.33 4.33 18.78 0
May 19 13.67 5.33 5.33 28.44 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
June 23 16.00 7.00 7.00 49.00 Time
July 26 19.33 6.67 6.67 44.44
August 30 22.67 7.33 7.33 53.78
September 28 26.33 1.67 1.67 2.78
October 18 28.00 -10.00 10.00 100.00
November 16 25.33 -9.33 9.33 87.11
December 14 20.67 -6.67 6.67 44.44
Total 6.33 58.33 428.78
Average 0.70 6.48 47.64
Bias MAD MSE
SE 7.83
Next period 16
 Forecasting

35
30
25
Demand
20 Forecas
15 t
10
5
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Time