Overview

Climate Change and Infrastructure

Project Examples

Adaptation Opportunities

Climate Change Adaptation for Infrastructure

Michael Nolan, Associate Director
22 September 2009

Climate Change and Infrastructure Climate Change and Infrastructure

Infrastructure and climate change risk assessment for Victoria Climate Change Impacts
Currently infrastructure is designed based Extreme Events
on past climate, not future climate. Increased intensity of storms, cyclones, rainfall,
wind, heatwaves & bushfires

Significant risk to infrastructure, and its Degradation of Materials

owners (investors) and long-term
Reduced asset life from change in ground
operators. movement, foundation chemistry and increased
corrosion rates and structural fatigue
Better planning of new infrastructure Resource Demand
investments and mitigating potential
Water (drought), energy (heatwaves) and viable
damage to existing infrastructure.
agricultural (climate)

Long Term Impacts

Sea level rise and change in annual average rainfall

Climate Change and Infrastructure Climate Change and Infrastructure

Sensitivity of Materials to Climate Change Impacts in Australia Climate Change Assessments of Infrastructure
Impacts are a function of:
Material CO Cyclones Sea Extreme Annual UV Bushfire Drought
2 & Storms Level Rainfall & Max • Climate variables changing over time (temp, rainfall, soil moisture, etc)
Rise & Floods Temp • Life expectancy of assets (100 yrs bridges vs 20 yrs road seal)
Concrete M H H M M L M L-M
• Location and geomorphology
Metals L H H M M L H L • Function of key assets and cascading consequences (loss of power)
Mortar L M M M L L M H • Condition of existing assets of a sector
Timber L M M M-H M L E L-M • Adaptive capacity of the sector (adaptation drivers and barriers)
Coatings L M L M M H E L
Polymers L M L L M H E L

Developed by AECOM Advanced Materials Group

Garnaut Climate Change Review Seven Climate Change Scenarios – U2 focus

Garnaut Climate Change Review

Melbourne - Annual Temperature 1990-2100
Impacts of climate change on the Australian economy
Recommends medium to long-term policies 6
Aims to address key climate change issues 5.5
5

Temperature - Degrees celcius

Strives to achieve sustainable prosperity 4.5
4
1˚ in U1

3.5 20 Y U2
Focuses on: 1˚ in U3
3
• Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Mitigation 20 Y
2.5 M1
1˚C in
• Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation 2
25 Yrs
M2
1.5 M3
1˚C change
1
in 40 Years M4
7 Climate Scenarios 0.5
• Dry, Wet and Mid Dry 0
-0.5
• Business As Usual and Mitigation Scenarios -1
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year

Garnaut Climate Change Review Garnaut Climate Change Review

Infrastructure Impacts for Garnaut Climate Change Review Impacts to Infrastructure in Victoria
AECOM identified and assessed the impacts of climate change on Increased damage to infrastructure from extreme
infrastructure in Australia, focussing in detail on: rainfall, wind, bushfire and storm events, sea level
• Buildings in coastal settlements rise, increased maximum temperatures and ground
• Electricity distribution and transmission networks movement.
• Water supply infrastructure in major cities
• Port infrastructure and operations Water security issues from reduced rainfall and
increased temperature and evaporation, impact
greatest to regional areas.
AECOM also qualitatively assessed:
• Roads and Bridges Implications:
• Communications • Increased maintenance, repair
• Alpine Regions and replacement
• Reduced life of assets by 2%-15%
• Lower service reliability

Garnaut Climate Change Review Garnaut Climate Change Review

Climate Change Impacts to Infrastructure in Victoria Climate Change Impacts to Infrastructure in SA

Infrastructure Type 2008-30 2031-70 2071-00 Infrastructure Type 2008-30 2031-70 2071-00

Water Supply in Melbourne H E E Water Supply in Adelaide E E E

Coastal Zone Buildings M H H Coastal Zone Buildings L M M

Electricity Distribution & Transmission M H H Electricity Distribution & Transmission M H H

Ports M M H Ports L M M

Scale of impact under: Scale of impact under:

• Business as Usual • Business as Usual
• Mid Dry Climate Scenario • Mid Dry Climate Scenario
Adapting to Climate Change Adapting to Climate Change

Climate Change Risks

Sustainable infrastructure
Early intervention is the best approach for managing climate risk Capacity building across your organisation

Capability operational insurance Liabilities

(service delivery, regulatory
infrastructure,
organisational) stakeholder
Health & Climate Change
Safety environmental
RISKS political

Ability to
and safety litigation
influence
financial Legislation
Environment reputational
& Heritage
Reputation Financial

Adapting to Climate Change Cascading Consequences – City of Melbourne Adaptation Planning

Intense Rainfall & Wind Event
Changes and Cascading Consequences
Liability costs
Increased injury/
death Insurance
Public safety payouts Public discontent
issues
Hindered emergency Lost productivity
Human health services
Climatic changes Mental stress risk Injuries/ deaths Potential business closure/
Stranded
passengers job loss
Potential sewerage Traffic/ PT
inundation Road structure blockages Potential road
Train/ tram deterioration collapse Business
Impact Business costs
stoppages Damaged cars, Interruption
Lost budget City flash buildings Increased Increased insurance
Increased Lost tourism Burst supply
and resource flooding insurance
insurance/ liability pipes Blocked subways premiums
allocations for Landslide/ claims
costs
planned damage to Yarra/ Power outages (flooded
activities banks, Maribyrnong
Intense Rainfall
substations)
Increased infrastructure Flooding / Wind Event
reparation costs Increased toxins to Increased public
Litter Impacts Increased Yarra/ Maribyrnong health risk
fallen trees Wind damage to Reduced waterway
Reduced OHS and branches infrastructure amenity
Public amenity/ issues Increased
discontent Traffic slows/ poor
visibility Increased repair treatment costs,/
Traffic/ PT costs to business impacts
Implications – 2 Increased traffic blockages and residents
accidents
Hindered emergency Biodiversity impacts
services
Increased insurance
Stretched emergency services claims

Increased insurance Constraint of

Increased injury/
premiums economic growth in
death
CoM

Adapting to Climate Change

Adapting your Asset Management

Which of your existing Assets are vulnerable?
• Integrity of assets at risk
• Understand impacts to CapX & OpX?
• When to adapt existing assets?

Watt Next?
Managing Network Reliability in a Changing Climate
Climate Change and NSW State Road Network
client: Roads Traffic Authority
 Risk Management
Likelihood x Consequence x Control
Australian Energy Regulator Chairman
Steve Edwell said…

“power generators and networks are

facing more threats to operations from
volatile weather events associated with
climate change, but nonetheless must
ensure continuity of supply”.
ESAA Newsletter 14th January 2008

“Senior management and boards of commercial businesses out there,

they need to ensure they’ve got a culture of compliance to ensure that
system security is at the top of their goals.”

Adapting to Climate Change Adapting Coastal Infrastructure to Climate Change

What are your Design Options? Adapting to Sea Level Adaptation Options
Adjust Design Standards & Guidelines Which Assets will be inundated?
Materials Selection • Sewage Treatment • Land reserved for protection
Adjusting Maintenance Regime • Bridges and roads • Increase height of new assets
• Ports • Understand lag time to respond
Change in Technology
• Buildings • Transport access during events
Reposition, Built in Mobility and Protection
• Airports Floodplain Risk Management Guidelines , DECC 2007
Accept Loss

Climate Change and AusAID Infrastructure Activities

Climate Change and Sustainability Design Guidelines

Port of Melbourne Corporation

Adapting to Climate Change

Adaptation Drivers Lessons Learnt

• Statutory codes, standards or guidelines • Use existing risk frameworks for organisations
• Regulator support for adaptation • Specify climate change into major projects
• Environmental impact assessment
• Prioritise specific functions at risk
• Infrastructure grants programs for State
and Local governments • Adaptation of new infrastructure is usually the lower cost option
• Events impacting assets, human health • Build in options to adapt later
and community values
• Structured behaviour change programs
and support tools for decision making
Michael Nolan
Thank you
Associate Director – Sustainability and Climate Change
michael.nolan@aecom.com
Mob. 0409 721 998

michael.nolan@maunsell.com
Mob. 0409 721 998

Adapting to Climate Change