Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Futures
Markets
IE 440/IE 540
• • •
Introduction to Financial Engineering
Background
Specifications
Mechanics of Futures Markets
CME Group
Instructor: Savaş Dayanık
VOB
Futures&Spot
Margin
Comparison
Problems
Review
C J I B
Page 1 of 42
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Problems
• Futures contracts are traded on exchanges. The futures
Review prices are determined by demand and supply.
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Vadeli İşlem ve Opsiyon Borsası (VOB)
CME Group
• contract size, namely, the amount of asset to be delivered
under one contract,
VOB
Specifications
CME Group
VOB
Futures&Spot
Margin
Comparison
Problems
Review
C J I B
Page 4 of 42
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Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
• • •
Background
Specifications
CME Group
VOB
Futures&Spot
Margin
Comparison
Problems
Review
C J I B
Page 5 of 42
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Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
• • •
Background
Specifications
CME Group
VOB
Futures&Spot
Margin
Comparison
Problems
Review
C J I B
Page 6 of 42
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Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
• • •
Background
Specifications
CME Group
VOB
Futures&Spot
Margin
Comparison
Problems
Review
C J I B
Settlement price is the price used for calculating daily gains
Page 7 of 42
and losses and margin requirements. It is usually the price of
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Close price from the previous day. Open interest is the total number
of contracts outstanding.
Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
• • •
Background
Specifications
CME Group
VOB
Futures&Spot
Margin
Comparison
Problems
Review
C J I B
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Mechanics of
Futures
Markets 4. Example: Vadeli İşlem ve Opsiyon Borsası
• • •
Background
Specifications
CME Group
VOB
Futures&Spot
Margin
Comparison
Problems
Review
C J I B
Page 9 of 42
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Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
• • •
Background
Specifications
CME Group
VOB
Futures&Spot
Margin
Comparison
Problems
Review
C J I B
Page 10 of 42
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Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
• • •
Background
Specifications
CME Group
VOB
Futures&Spot
Margin
Comparison
Problems
Review
C J I B
Page 11 of 42
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Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
• • •
Background
Specifications
CME Group
VOB
Futures&Spot
Margin
Comparison
Problems
Review
C J I B
Page 12 of 42
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Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
• • •
Background
Specifications
CME Group
VOB
Futures&Spot
Margin
Comparison
Problems
Review
C J I B
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Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
• • •
Background
Specifications
CME Group
VOB
Futures&Spot
Margin
Comparison
Problems
Review
C J I B
Page 14 of 42
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Mechanics of
Futures
Daily TL/USD exchange rate and
Markets
futures price for the closest delivery month
• • •
1.7
Background
1.6
Specifications
VOB
1.4
Futures&Spot
spot price
future price
1.3
Margin
Review
0.04
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0.02
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0.00
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−0.02
Close
2006 2007
Mechanics of
Futures
Daily TL/USD exchange rate and
Markets
futures price for the closest delivery month
• • •
Background
1.5
Specifications
VOB
0.5
Futures&Spot
spot price
future price
0.0
Margin
Review
0.3
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0.2
Page 16 of 42
0.1
0.0
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−0.1
Close
VOB
Exchange rate and futures prices
Futures&Spot 1.8
Margin
Comparison
1.7
Problems
Review
1.6
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Page 17 of 42 1.5
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Date
Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
• • •
Background
Specifications
CME Group
VOB
Futures&Spot
Margin
Comparison
Problems
If futures price > spot price during the delivery month, then
Review
1) selling futures, 2) buying asset, 3) making delivery
Page 18 of 42
trades like above will then push the futures price down.
If futures price < spot price during the delivery month, then
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companies interested in the commodity will demand more
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futures contracts, which will push futures prices up.
Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
There will always be a difference between the spot price
• • • and futures price, which is called basis, or between spot price
Background
and forward price, before expiry. This is because holders of
Specifications
spot contract receive
CME Group
Page 19 of 42
with the spot contract. At the expiry of the forward or futures
contract the price quoted is the price for delivery now, so it
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is equal to the spot price by definition. But prior to expiry
Close
the basis is not zero, except by chance.
Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
6. Daily settlement and margins
• • •
Background • A margin is cash or marketable securities deposited by an
Specifications investor with his or her broker.
CME Group
• The balance in the margin account is adjusted to reflect
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daily settlement.
Futures&Spot
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• Contract size is 100 oz.
Close
• Maintenance margin is 1,500 USD/contract.
Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
• • •
Background
Specifications
CME Group
VOB
Futures&Spot
Margin
Comparison
Problems
Review
C J I B
Page 21 of 42
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Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
7. Comparison of forward and futures contracts
• • •
Background
Specifications
CME Group
VOB
Futures&Spot
Margin
Comparison
Problems
Review
C J I B
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Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
8. Questions and Problems
• • •
Background Problem 2.3. Suppose that you enter into a short futures
Specifications contract to sell July silver for $10.20 per ounce on the New
CME Group York Commodity Exchange. The size of the contract is 5,000
VOB ounces. The initial margin is $4,000, and the maintenance
Futures&Spot margin is $3,000. What change in the futures price will lead
Margin to a margin call? What happens if you do not meet the
Comparison margin call?
Problems
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C J I B
Page 23 of 42
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Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
8. Questions and Problems
• • •
Background Problem 2.3. Suppose that you enter into a short futures
Specifications contract to sell July silver for $10.20 per ounce on the New
CME Group York Commodity Exchange. The size of the contract is 5,000
VOB ounces. The initial margin is $4,000, and the maintenance
Futures&Spot margin is $3,000. What change in the futures price will lead
Margin to a margin call? What happens if you do not meet the
Comparison margin call?
Problems Solution. If ∆ is the futures price change (drop in this
Review case) which triggers a margin call, then
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≥ initial margin per contract
− maintenance margin per contract,
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1,000
Close or ∆×5, 000 ≥ 5, 000−4, 000, which implies that ∆ ≥ 5,000
= 0.20.
Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
Question 2.10. Explain how margins protect investors
• • • against the possibility of default.
Background
Specifications
CME Group
VOB
Futures&Spot
Margin
Comparison
Problems
Review
C J I B
Page 24 of 42
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Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
Question 2.10. Explain how margins protect investors
• • • against the possibility of default.
Background
Answer. Marking the value of the futures contract to mar-
Specifications
ket by maintaining margin accounts is essentially the same as
CME Group
(i) closing the old positions at a profit or loss, and (ii) re-
VOB
taking the same positions at the current futures prices every
Futures&Spot
day.
Margin
Comparison
Problems
Review
C J I B
Page 24 of 42
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Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
Problem 2.16. On July 1, 2009, a Japanese company
• • • enters into a forward contract to buy $1 million on January
Background
1, 2010. On September 1, 2009, it enters into a forward
Specifications
contract to sell $1 million on January 1, 2010. Describe the
CME Group
profit of loss the company will make in yen as a function of
VOB
the forward exchange rates on July 1, 2009 and September
Futures&Spot
1, 2009.
Margin
Comparison
Problems
Review
C J I B
Page 25 of 42
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Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
Problem 2.16. On July 1, 2009, a Japanese company
• • • enters into a forward contract to buy $1 million on January
Background
1, 2010. On September 1, 2009, it enters into a forward
Specifications
contract to sell $1 million on January 1, 2010. Describe the
CME Group
profit of loss the company will make in yen as a function of
VOB
the forward exchange rates on July 1, 2009 and September
Futures&Spot
1, 2009.
Margin
Solution. Let us denote by F1 and F2 the forward exchange
Comparison
rates on July 1, 2009 and September 1, 2009. Then the profit
Problems
on January 1, 2010 equals F2 − F1 million yen.
Review
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Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
Question 2.25. It is July 2008. A mining company has
• • • just discovered a small deposit of gold. It will take 6 months
Background
to construct the mine. The gold will then be extracted on a
Specifications
more or less continuous basis for one year. Futures contracts
CME Group
on gold are available on the New York Commodity Exchange.
VOB
There are delivery months every 2 months from August 2008
Futures&Spot
to December 2009. Each contract is for the delivery of 100
Margin
ounces. Discuss how the mining company might use futures
Comparison
markets for hedging.
Problems
Review
C J I B
Page 26 of 42
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Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
Question 2.25. It is July 2008. A mining company has
• • • just discovered a small deposit of gold. It will take 6 months
Background
to construct the mine. The gold will then be extracted on a
Specifications
more or less continuous basis for one year. Futures contracts
CME Group
on gold are available on the New York Commodity Exchange.
VOB
There are delivery months every 2 months from August 2008
Futures&Spot
to December 2009. Each contract is for the delivery of 100
Margin
ounces. Discuss how the mining company might use futures
Comparison
markets for hedging.
Problems
Answer. Since the mine will start operation six months
Review
later, the unexpected changes in the future price and demand
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for gold form a risk. Shorting futures with delivery months in
2009 from today will guarantee both a known demand size as
Page 26 of 42
well as price for gold. After removing the uncertainty about
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future revenues, building a new mine in the next six months
Close becomes a business with significantly reduced risks.
Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
Problem 2.27. Suppose that there are no storage costs
• • • for crude oil and the interest rate for borrowing and lending
Background
is 5% per annum. How could you make money on January
Specifications
8, 2007, by trading June 2007 and December 2007 futures
CME Group
contracts? Use the futures prices for delivery months in 2007
VOB
listed in a newspaper on January 8, 2007 as below.
Futures&Spot
Margin
Comparison
Problems
Review
C J I B
Page 27 of 42
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Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
Problem 2.27. Suppose that there are no storage costs
• • • for crude oil and the interest rate for borrowing and lending
Background
is 5% per annum. How could you make money on January
Specifications
8, 2007, by trading June 2007 and December 2007 futures
CME Group
contracts? Use the futures prices for delivery months in 2007
VOB
listed in a newspaper on January 8, 2007 as below.
Futures&Spot
Margin
Comparison
Problems
Review
C J I B
Solution. The settlement prices for June and December
Page 27 of 42
futures contracts are $60.01 and $62.94 per barrel, respec-
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Close
• On 8 January 2007, long one June contract and short one
Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
December contract of 1,000 barrels of crude oil in CME
• • • Group Exchange (NYMEX, CME, and CBOT merged).
Background
Specifications
• In June 2007, borrow $60.01 × 1, 000 = $60, 010 from money
CME Group
market to pay for one June contract and receive the de-
livery of 1,000 barrels of crude oil.
VOB
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Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
Problem 2.29. The author’s Web page contains daily closing
• • • prices for crude oil and gold futures contracts. (Both con-
Background
tracts were traded on NYMEX, which later merged to CME
Specifications
Group with CBOT and CME.) You are required to download
CME Group
the data and answer the following:
VOB
(a) How high do the maintenance margin levels for oil and
Futures&Spot
gold have to be set so that there is a 1% chance that an in-
Margin
vestor with a balance slightly above the maintenance margin
Comparison
level on a particular day has a negative balance 2 days later?
Problems
How high do they have to be for a 0.1% chance? Assume
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daily price changes are normally distributed with mean zero.
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Explain why CME Group might be interested in this calcula-
tion.
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One crude oil futures contract is for 1,000 barrels, and
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crude oil futures price is quoted in USD per barrel. One gold
Close futures contract is for 100 ounces, and gold futures price is
quoted in USD per ounce.
Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
Solution.
Crude Oil Futures Prices on NYMEX
• • •
30
Background
CME Group
20
VOB
15
Futures&Spot
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Date
Margin
Daily futures price differences
Comparison
0 1
Problems
−3 −2 −1
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−4
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mean and 1, 000 × 0.4393 = 439.3 standard deviation. Then
2.0
Markets
prob. density of futures price differences
• • • prob. density of fitted normal distribution
1.5
Background
Density
Specifications
VOB
0.0
Futures&Spot
−4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2
Margin
Daily futures price differences
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Theoretical Quantiles
Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
This means that negative large daily futures price changes
• • • are more likely than they are implied under Normal assump-
Background
tion, and negative margin account balances under mainte-
Specifications
nance margin levels m0.01 and m0.001 is likely to be larger than
CME Group
1% and 0.1%, respectively. Correctly modeling the stochastic
VOB
process of daily futures price differences is therefore crucial
Futures&Spot
to keep the credit risk low.
Margin
(b) Imagine an investor who starts with a long position in
Comparison
the oil contract at the beginning of period covered by the
Problems
data and keeps the contract for the whole of the period of
Review
time covered by the data. Margin balances in excess of the
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initial margin are withdrawn. Use the maintenance margin
calculated in (a) for a 1% risk level and assume that the
Page 34 of 42
maintenance margin is 75% of the initial margin. Calculate
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the number of margin calls and the number of times the in-
Close vestor has a negative margin balance. Assume that all margin
Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
calls are met in your calculations.
• • • From part (a), we found that the maintenance margins
Background
equal m0.01 = 1, 024 and m0.001 = 1, 357. Therefore, the corre-
Specifications
sponding initial margins equal M0.01 = 1, 024/0.75 = 1, 365 and
CME Group
M0.001 = 1, 357/0.75 = 1, 810.
VOB With 0.01 prob. of neg. balance With 0.001 prob. of neg. balance
2000
2000
M0.01 = 1810
Futures&Spot
M0.01 = 1357
m0.01 = 1357
1000
1000
Margin
m0.01 = 1024
Margin account balance
Comparison
0
0
Problems
−1000
−1000
Review
−2000
−2000
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Page 35 of 42
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Comparison
Problems
Review
C J I B
Page 36 of 42
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Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
9. Review questions and problems
• • •
Background Problem 1.9. You would like to speculate on a rise in the
Specifications price of a certain stock. The current stock price is $29, and
CME Group a 3-month call with a strike price of $30 costs $2.90. You
VOB have $5,800 to invest. Identify two alternative investment
Futures&Spot strategies, one in the stock and the other in an option on the
Margin stock. What are the potential gains and losses from each?
Comparison
Problems
Review
C J I B
Page 37 of 42
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Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
9. Review questions and problems
• • •
Background Problem 1.9. You would like to speculate on a rise in the
Specifications price of a certain stock. The current stock price is $29, and
CME Group a 3-month call with a strike price of $30 costs $2.90. You
VOB have $5,800 to invest. Identify two alternative investment
Futures&Spot strategies, one in the stock and the other in an option on the
Margin stock. What are the potential gains and losses from each?
Comparison Solution. If we invest entire wealth on the stock at time 0,
Problems then the wealth after T = 1/4 years becomes
Review 5, 800
(ST − 29) × = 200ST − 5, 800
29
C J I B
in terms of the stock price ST at time T . If we invest on call
Page 37 of 42 option written on the same stock with expiration in T = 1/4
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years and strike price K = 30, then the wealth at time T equals
5, 800
Close × (ST − 30)+ − 5, 800
2.9
Mechanics of
Futures
Markets − 5, 800, ST < 30,
• • • =
2, 000 S − 65, 800, S ≥ 30.
Background T T
Review
If we expect ST > 100/3, investing in call options is more
profitable.
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Mechanics of
Futures
Markets Problem 1.26. The price of gold is currently $600 per ounce.
• • •
The forward price for delivery in 1 year is $800. An arbitrageur
Background
Futures&Spot
Margin
Comparison
Problems
Review
C J I B
Page 39 of 42
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Mechanics of
Futures
Markets Problem 1.26. The price of gold is currently $600 per ounce.
• • •
The forward price for delivery in 1 year is $800. An arbitrageur
Background
Comparison
• borrow $600 from bank at 10% interest rate,
Review
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Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
Problem 1.28. On 12 September 2006, an investor owns
• • • 100 Intel shares. The share price is $19.56 and a January
Background
put option with a strike price of $17.50 costs $0.475. The
Specifications
investor is comparing two alternatives to limit downside risk.
CME Group
The first is to buy one January put option contract with
VOB
a strike price of $17.50. The second involves instructing a
Futures&Spot
broker to sell the 100 shares as soon as Intel’s stock price
$17.50.
Margin
Discuss the advantages and disadvantages of two
Comparison
strategies.
Problems
Solution. The first alternative (buying American put op-
Review
tions) is more expensive than the second alternative (which
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simply sells stock when stock price reaches below 17.50).
However, the first alternative also gives more flexibility/opportunit
Page 40 of 42
to distinguish a false alarm from a real problem of decreasing
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stock prices.
Close The optimal exercise boundary of an American put option
Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
with strike price 17.50 is typically lies below 17.50 level, and
• • • even if stock price drops below 17.50, it may later recover
Background
(before it triggers an exercise signal). This may then prevent
Specifications
us from sub-optimally rushing to sell stocks (for example when
CME Group
stock price goes below 17.50 as in the second alternative)
VOB
which can later recover.
Futures&Spot
Margin
Comparison
Problems
Stock price
Review
19.56
17.50
C J I B
Page 41 of 42
Exercise region
time
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Sep Jan
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Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
Problem 1.30. A corporate treasurer said: “I will have 1
• • • million GBP to sell in 6 months. If the exchange rate is less
Background
than 2.02, I want you to give me 2.02. If it is greater than
Specifications
2.09, I will accept 2.09. If the exchange rate is between 2.02
CME Group
and 2.09, I will sell the sterling for the exchange rate.” How
VOB
could you use options to satisfy the treasurer?
Futures&Spot
Margin
Comparison
Problems
Review
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Mechanics of
Futures
Markets
Problem 1.30. A corporate treasurer said: “I will have 1
• • • million GBP to sell in 6 months. If the exchange rate is less
Background
than 2.02, I want you to give me 2.02. If it is greater than
Specifications
2.09, I will accept 2.09. If the exchange rate is between 2.02
CME Group
and 2.09, I will sell the sterling for the exchange rate.” How
VOB
could you use options to satisfy the treasurer?
Futures&Spot
Solution. The corporate treasurer
Margin
Page 42 of 42
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