28 February 2011 Equity Strategy

Brazil abc
Global Research

Brazil Equity Insights

Our take on Brazilian equities under high oil prices
 An oil price spike would worsen the inflation outlook and
increase risks of policy error

 Our current sector allocation is well-prepared to cope with

higher crude prices

 US growth-sensitive stocks would be at risk

In this report, we test our Brazil calls against a scenario in which oil prices spike and stay
at high levels.

The most immediate impact would be on inflation, even though we do not believe that the
transmission would occur via the most obvious channel: higher domestic gasoline and
Issue No. 1 diesel prices. Amidst a difficult battle to control inflation and anchor expectations, we see
little prospect for the Brazilian government to allow fuel prices to rise. Contagion appears
Alexandre Gartner *
likely to happen through basic petrochemical products (such as nafta) and imported goods
Head of Equity Research, Brazil
HSBC Bank Brasil SA that have inputs with prices linked to international oil prices.
+55 11 3371 8181
alexandre.gartner@hsbc.com.br There is an obvious impact on the global growth outlook, which would be trimmed,
Francisco Vanzolini, CFA *
should this scenario materialize. In our group of recommended companies, the ones more
Strategist exposed to the US economy would be most impacted, as is the case for Gerdau.
HSBC Bank Brasil SA
+55 11 3371 8191 Other than that, we conclude that our allocation call – overweight commodities and
francisco.v.machado@hsbc.com.br
infrastructure; underweight interest rate-sensitive stocks – would not materially change.
Please see our report, Brazil in Motion: Growing Pains, published 26 January 2011, for
more details on our recommended allocations. On the other hand, São Martinho and
Cosan may be beneficiaries in this scenario.

View HSBC Global Research at:

http://www.research.hsbc.com
HSBC recommended allocation and impacts
*Employed by a non-US affiliate of
HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not Sector HSBC strategist view Recommended stocks Scenario impact
registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA Agribusiness Overweight SLC Agricola Benefits São Martinho and Cosan
regulations Concessions Overweight CCR Unchanged
Issuer of report: HSBC Bank Brasil Healthcare Overweight Odontoprev Unchanged
S.A. – Banco Múltiplo Oil Overweight Petrobras Slightly better. Would really benefit if
gasoline/diesel prices were to increase
Disclaimer & Steel & Mining Overweight Vale, Gerdau Unchanged for Vale
Gerdau may suffer from US exposure
Disclosures Education Neutral
Food & Beverages Neutral
This report must be read TMT Neutral
with the disclosures and Utilities
FIG - Banks
Neutral
Underweight
the analyst certifications in Homebuilders Underweight
the Disclosure appendix, Retail & consumer Underweight

and with the Disclaimer, Source: HSBC

which forms part of it

 Equity Strategy
Brazil
28 February 2011
Brazil under high oil prices
More inflation
In this report, we test our Brazil calls against a
scenario in which oil prices spike and stay at
high levels.
It is pretty straightforward that this scenario
would have a significant impact on Brazilian
inflation. The most obvious contagion channel
would be increases in domestic gasoline and
diesel prices. Nevertheless, we do not believe
that the risk resides here, as prices are set by the
Brazilian government. In a situation in which
inflation is already high and expectations have
deteriorated, we do not believe that increasing
gasoline and diesel prices is an option. But other
contagion channels would be opened. First,
basic petrochemical products, such as nafta,
have automatic monthly price adjustments and
thus would capture the impact of higher oil
prices. As a consequence, the entire chain
would face price pressures. Second, inflation
would be affected by higher prices for imported
durable goods that have oil as an input.
In a scenario like this, inflation expectations
would deteriorate further and prove harder to
control. This trend would reinforce our concerns
about inflation and make the Brazilian central
bank (BCB) and government response to higher
prices more difficult and the risks of policy
error much higher. Overall, we believe that our
recommended sector allocation would still be
well-positioned under this scenario with
underweight in interest rate-sensitive sectors
and overweight on commodities and
infrastructure companies. A caveat has to be
made that under the oil spike scenario, the US
economy would be negatively impacted and
companies that were benefiting from economic
recovery could be hurt.
2
abc
Gasoline, diesel, and nafta prices
With Brazilian inflation in the past 12 months
reaching 6.0%, we understand that prospects are
small that the government will increase gasoline
and diesel prices, even if oil prices spike higher.
Domestic gasoline prices are aligned with
foreign price, and diesel is already much less
expensive domestically than abroad, +2% and
-30%, respectively, so the buffer we had
previously is gone now. The fuel group has a
heavy weighting, representing 4.5% of the
IPCA index (gasoline 3.9%), and the impact
would be propagated to prices of other products
and services that have fuel as an important
input, broadening the inflation challenge we
already have. Gasoline and diesel usually follow
international prices in the long term, but
divergences occur in shorter periods, depending
on political and economic considerations (ie
current inflation). As Petrobras is well-
capitalized, the company is better prepared to
cope with lower domestic prices, compared to
international benchmarks.
In Brazil, nafta prices are readjusted by
Petrobras with a reference in the previous three-
month moving average of the nafta-ARA
benchmark, and imported nafta follows
international prices that closely track oil itself.
Contrary to gasoline and diesel prices, nafta
prices are automatically raised every month. The
three-month average formula may smooth the
spike but will not prevent it from arriving. Food
prices also could be affected, as biofuels would
become more attractive, compared to a more
expensive oil price, and increase the appeal of
burning food for fuel – not to mention increasing
costs from transportation and fertilizers.
 Equity Strategy
Brazil
28 February 2011
More of the same
Higher inflation would ultimately mean more-
depressed consumer confidence and more-
muted growth in real income, reinforcing the
trends we were envisioning already. High
inflation also should raise policy makers’
concerns, as we are already departing from a
high level and a consensus has formed that the
BCB is behind the curve. The sense of urgency
may lead to over-reaction and increase risks of
policy error.
A case in point is that in January, aggregate real
income retreated for the third straight month.
The trend started on 10 November with -0.6%,
followed by -0.5% in December and -0.8% now.
Compared to a year ago, incomes are still
positive but losing momentum. The peak was
reached on 10 September at +11.1% and has
since come down to +8.5%. This is an important
input for retail sales forecasts, and the trend is
still negative for now.
Aggregate real income in a negative trend for the third
month
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
jan/09 abr/09 jul/09 out/09 jan/10 abr/10
Source: IBGE, HSBC
Sector allocation
The impacts mentioned should be favorable to
our current sector allocation. Interest rate-
sensitive sectors such as consumer, retail, real
estate, and banks should be negatively
impacted, while commodities and infrastructure
companies should prove more resilient. Names
sensitive to US growth could be hurt as the US
consumer would be hit most of all.
abc
Food and agribusiness
Grain and sugar producers should benefit, as
higher oil prices should put a floor under
ethanol and biodiesel. Food prices also would
increase, with the impacts we mentioned: higher
transportation and fertilizer costs and food for
fuel. We currently have SLC Agricola
(SLCE3.SA, BRL21.30, rated Neutral by Pedro
Herrera) on our top pick list, which would
continue to benefit under this scenario. Another
company that would also be favored is São
Martinho (SMTO3.SA, BRL22.30, rated
Neutral by Pedro Herrera).
Oil and ethanol
Petrobras (PBR.N, USD39.74, rated Overweight
by Anisa Redman) benefits from higher-volume
sales, as stable prices should keep demand for
products resilient. The company will not be able
to capitalize on higher prices, though, as the
government controls gasoline and diesel prices.
Overall, we believe that the company should
continue to benefit from reallocation away from
domestic-oriented sectors. Petrobras also is in
our recommended list.
Ethanol producers can increase exports if prices
abroad are high enough to compensate for
tariffs and logistics. If the export window is
opened, ethanol prices should not be limited to
jul/10 out/10 jan/11
(artificially low) domestic gasoline prices.
Cosan (CSAN3, BRL25.07, rated Overweight
(V) by Pedro Herrera) would also benefit from
strong sales in the distribution front, as fuel
prices domestically are kept stable.
Airlines and concessions
Airlines are typically hurt by oil price spikes
and this is no different in Brazil. Jet fuel is
readjusted every month (like nafta), so costs
will increase faster and prove harder to pass
along to the consumer (other transports would
get more competitive). CCR-Cia Concessões
3
 Equity Strategy
Brazil abc
28 February 2011

Rodoviárias (CCRO3.SA, BRL45.26, rated

Overweight by Luciano Campos) may benefit
from strong flows, as fuel prices are kept low
and high inflation will readjust its contracts
(wholesale prices would be more impacted by
the oil spike as 7.3% of the index would suffer a
direct impact).

Metals and mining

The biggest risk to our call would come from
companies oriented to the US consumer. Oil
price spikes have preceded most US recessions
since World War II, and we see no reason for
matters to be different this time. Maybe the
negative response so far in the dollar index is
sign that under a spike in oil prices, the flight to
quality would not be in the US direction. In our
top picks for this quarter, we would be
particularly concerned about Gerdau
(GGBR4.SA, BRL22.08, rated Neutral by
Jonathan Brandt).

Vale (VALE, USD34.21, rated Overweight (V)

by Jonathan Brandt) would suffer under a more
extreme scenario, in which high oil prices lead
to a relevant global slowdown and thus impact
the company on the demand side.

4
 Equity Strategy
Brazil abc
28 February 2011

Disclosure appendix
Analyst Certification
The following analyst(s), economist(s), and/or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, certifies(y) that the
opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) or issuer(s) and/or any other views or forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect their
personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Alexandre Gartner and Francisco Machado

Brazilian Securities Exchange Commission (CVM) Regulation No. 483

Pursuant to CVM Ruling No. 483, of July 6, 2010, HSBC has obtained from the analyst(s) listed above under "Analyst
Certification" and disclosed (where applicable), the statements set forth in Article 17 and have rendered (where applicable) the
statements set forth in Article 18, under the sections titled "Analyst Certification" and "HSBC & Analyst Disclosures".

The analyst(s) furthermore certifies(y) that the recommendations contained in this report have been prepared independently,
even in relation to HSBC.

Important disclosures
Stock ratings and basis for financial analysis
HSBC believes that investors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions, which
depend largely on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations.
Given these differences, HSBC has two principal aims in its equity research: 1) to identify long-term investment opportunities
based on particular themes or ideas that may affect the future earnings or cash flows of companies on a 12 month time horizon;
and 2) from time to time to identify short-term investment opportunities that are derived from fundamental, quantitative,
technical or event-driven techniques on a 0-3 month time horizon and which may differ from our long-term investment rating.
HSBC has assigned ratings for its long-term investment opportunities as described below.

This report addresses only the long-term investment opportunities of the companies referred to in the report. As and when
HSBC publishes a short-term trading idea the stocks to which these relate are identified on the website at
www.hsbcnet.com/research. Details of these short-term investment opportunities can be found under the Reports section of this
website.

HSBC believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances such as the investor's
existing holdings and other considerations. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different rating
systems to describe their recommendations. Investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used in each research
report. In addition, because research reports contain more complete information concerning the analysts' views, investors
should carefully read the entire research report and should not infer its contents from the rating. In any case, ratings should not
be used or relied on in isolation as investment advice.

Rating definitions for long-term investment opportunities

Stock ratings
HSBC assigns ratings to its stocks in this sector on the following basis:

For each stock we set a required rate of return calculated from the risk free rate for that stock's domestic, or as appropriate,
regional market and the relevant equity risk premium established by our strategy team. The price target for a stock represents
the value the analyst expects the stock to reach over our performance horizon. The performance horizon is 12 months. For a
stock to be classified as Overweight, the implied return must exceed the required return by at least 5 percentage points over the
next 12 months (or 10 percentage points for a stock classified as Volatile*). For a stock to be classified as Underweight, the
stock must be expected to underperform its required return by at least 5 percentage points over the next 12 months (or 10
percentage points for a stock classified as Volatile*). Stocks between these bands are classified as Neutral.

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Brazil abc
28 February 2011

Our ratings are re-calibrated against these bands at the time of any 'material change' (initiation of coverage, change of volatility
status or change in price target). Notwithstanding this, and although ratings are subject to ongoing management review,
expected returns will be permitted to move outside the bands as a result of normal share price fluctuations without necessarily
triggering a rating change.

*A stock will be classified as volatile if its historical volatility has exceeded 40%, if the stock has been listed for less than 12
months (unless it is in an industry or sector where volatility is low) or if the analyst expects significant volatility. However,
stocks which we do not consider volatile may in fact also behave in such a way. Historical volatility is defined as the past
month's average of the daily 365-day moving average volatilities. In order to avoid misleadingly frequent changes in rating,
however, volatility has to move 2.5 percentage points past the 40% benchmark in either direction for a stock's status to change.

Rating distribution for long-term investment opportunities

As of 25 February 2011, the distribution of all ratings published is as follows:
Overweight (Buy) 49% (23% of these provided with Investment Banking Services)
Neutral (Hold) 37% (21% of these provided with Investment Banking Services)
Underweight (Sell) 14% (20% of these provided with Investment Banking Services)

Information regarding company share price performance and history of HSBC ratings and price targets in respect of its long-
term investment opportunities for the companies the subject of this report,is available from www.hsbcnet.com/research.

HSBC & Analyst disclosures

Disclosure checklist
Company Ticker Recent price Price Date Disclosure
CCR-CIA CONCESSOES ROD. CCRO3.SA 45.26 25-Feb-2011 7
COSAN CSAN3.SA 25.07 25-Feb-2011 11
COSAN LTD CZZ.N 13.23 25-Feb-2011 11
ODONTOPREV S.A ODPV3.SA 22.35 25-Feb-2011 4
PETROLEO BRASILEIRO ADR PBR.N 39.74 25-Feb-2011 1, 2, 5, 6, 7
PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA PETR3.SA 32.41 25-Feb-2011 1, 2, 5, 6, 7
SÃO MARTINHO SMTO3.SA 22.30 25-Feb-2011 4
VALE VALE.K 34.21 25-Feb-2011 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 11
VALE SA VALE5.SA 49.25 25-Feb-2011 1, 4, 5, 7
Source: HSBC

1 HSBC* has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for this company within the past 12 months.
2 HSBC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next
3 months.
3 At the time of publication of this report, HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. is a Market Maker in securities issued by this
company.
4 As of 31 January 2011 HSBC beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of this company.
5 As of 31 December 2010, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a client
of and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of investment banking services.
6 As of 31 December 2010, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a client
of and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of non-investment banking-securities related services.
7 As of 31 December 2010, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a client
of and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of non-securities services.
8 A covering analyst/s has received compensation from this company in the past 12 months.
9 A covering analyst/s or a member of his/her household has a financial interest in the securities of this company, as
detailed below.
10 A covering analyst/s or a member of his/her household is an officer, director or supervisory board member of this
company, as detailed below.
11 At the time of publication of this report, HSBC is a non-US Market Maker in securities issued by this company and/or in
securities in respect of this company

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 Equity Strategy
Brazil abc
28 February 2011

Analysts, economists, and strategists are paid in part by reference to the profitability of HSBC which includes investment
banking revenues.

For disclosures in respect of any company mentioned in this report, please see the most recently published report on that
company available at www.hsbcnet.com/research.

* HSBC Legal Entities are listed in the Disclaimer below.

Additional disclosures
1 This report is dated as at 28 February 2011.
2 All market data included in this report are dated as at close 24 February 2011, unless otherwise indicated in the report.
3 HSBC has procedures in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its
Research business. HSBC's analysts and its other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of Research
operate and have a management reporting line independent of HSBC's Investment Banking business. Information Barrier
procedures are in place between the Investment Banking and Research businesses to ensure that any confidential and/or
price sensitive information is handled in an appropriate manner.
4 As of 31 January 2011, HSBC and/or its affiliates (including the funds, portfolios and investment clubs in securities
managed by such entities) either, directly or indirectly, own or are involved in the acquisition, sale or intermediation of,
1% or more of the total capital of the subject companies securities in the market for the following Company(ies): VALE,
SÃO MARTINHO, ODONTOPREV S.A., VALE S.A.

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 Equity Strategy
Brazil abc
28 February 2011

Disclaimer
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HSBC Bank Brasil S.A. – Banco
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Latin America Equities & Equity Strategy
Research Team
Patrick Boucher Natural Resources and Energy
Head of Research, Americas Jonathan Brandt
+1 212 525 7632 patrick.j.boucher@us.hsbc.com Steel
+1 212 525 4499 jonathan.l.brandt@us.hsbc.com
Equities
Eduardo J Gomide
Alexandre Gartner Utilities
Head of Equity Research, Brazil +55 11 3371 9502 eduardo.j.gomide@hsbc.com.br
+55 11 3371 8181 alexandre.gartner@hsbc.com.br
Lucia Marquez
Juan Carlos Mateos Metals & Mining, Gold
Head of Equity Research, Mexico +1 212 525 7669 lucia.x.marquez@us.hsbc.com
+52 55 5721 3607 juan.mateos@hsbc.com.mx
Reginaldo Pereira
Consumer Brands & Retail Utilities
Manisha A Chaudhry +55 11 3371 8203 reginaldo.l.pereira@hsbc.com.br
Retail & Consumer
+1 212 525 3035 manisha.a.chaudhry@us.hsbc.com Anisa Redman
Oil and Gas, GEMs
Francisco J Chevez +44 20 7991 6822 anisa.redman@hsbcib.com
Retail & Consumer
+1 212 525 5350 francisco.j.chevez@us.hsbc.com Kaique Vasconcellos
Utilities
Ivan Enriquez +55 11 3847-9216 kaique.s.vasconcellos@hsbc.com.br
Associate
+52 55 5721 2397 ivan.enriquez@hsbc.com.mx Telecoms, Media & Technology
Richard Dineen
Pedro Herrera Telecoms
Food & Agricultural Products, Alternative Fuels +1 212 525 6707 richard.dineen@us.hsbc.com
+1 212 525 5126 pedro.herrera@us.hsbc.com
Sean Glickenhaus
Diego Maia Telecoms
Food & Agricultural Products, Brazil +1 212 525 4131 sean.x.glickenhaus@us.hsbc.com
+55 11 33718192 diego.t.maia@hsbc.com.br
Enrique Gomez-Tagle
Francisco Suarez Media
Household Durables, Construction & Engineering, Airports +52 55 5721 2167 enrique.gomeztagle@hsbc.com.mx
Mexico
Luigi Minerva
+52 55 5721 2173 francisco.suarez@hsbc.com.mx
Telecoms
Lauren Torres +44 20 7991 6928 luigi.minerva@hsbcib.com
Global Beverages
Equity Strategy
+1 212 525 6972 lauren.torres@us.hsbc.com
John Lomax
James Watson
Head of Equity Strategy, GEMs
Global Beverages
+44 20 7992 3712 john.lomax@hsbcib.com
+1 212 525 4905 james.c.watson@us.hsbc.com
Jaime Aguilera
Financials
Strategist
Victor Galliano
+52 55 5721 2379 jamie.aguilera@hsbc.com.mx
Financials
+1 212 525 5253 victor.galliano@us.hsbc.com Francisco V Machado
Strategist
Paulo E Ribeiro
+55 11 3371 8191 francisco.v.machado@hsbc.com.br
Diversified Financial Services
+1 212 525 4430 paulo.e.ribeiro@us.hsbc.com
Mariel Santiago
Financials Specialist Sales, Latin America Equities
+1 212 525 5418 mariel.x.santiago@us.hsbc.com
New York, US
Healthcare John Diego
Luciano T Campos +1 212 525 5186 john.c.diego@us.hsbc.com
Healthcare, Education Elizabeth Camilo
+55 11 3371 8192 luciano.t.campos@hsbc.com.br +1 212 525 8227 elizabeth.camilo@us.hsbc.com
Industrials Robert J Schifini
Luciano T Campos +1 212 525 8581 rob.j.schifini@us.hsbc.com
Transportation & Logistics
+55 11 3371 8192 luciano.t.campos@hsbc.com.br London, UK
Rebeca Ojeda
Leonardo Scutti +44 207 7991 5421 rebeca.ojeda@hsbcib.com
Transportation & Logistics
Simone Rosito
+55 11 3371 8190 leonardo.r.scutti@hsbc.com.br
+44 207 7991 1396 simone.rosito@hsbcib.com
Sao Paulo, Brazil
Leonardo Taves
+55 11 3371 8362 leonardo.taves@hsbc.com.br
Thais Porto
+55 11 3371 8621 thais.c.porto@hsbc.com.br
Luiz Mello
+55 11 3371 8219 luiz.mello@hsbc.com.br
Mexico City, Mexicoequi
Jorge Gonzalez
+52 55 5721 6305 jorge.b.gonzalez@hsbc.com.mx\