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China-India bilateral India becomes world's fourth-largest economy with 13% '20 GDP growth !
trade rising, says top
Surpasses Germany & closing in rapidly on Japan
official
By Omkar Barve However, new administration has achieved sustained
. Our Bureau . Posted on 2 January 2020
growth especially with new collaborative approach
with India.
NEW DELHI New Delhi: India has become the world's fourth-
Chinese GDP stood at 11.6 trillion dollars for
largest economy, surpassing Germany and closing
Beijing: Bilateral trade between 2019.It has shown an average GDP growth of 9% for
rapidly on Japan, according to government and
China and India is rising since 2017 last decade. Analysts believe that China would surpass
-18, new deputy high commissioner World Bank figures. The Indian government revised
US GDP in another five years. Despite real growth, its
of India to the US, YP Roy has its growth figures for 2020 from 12 percent to 13 per-
Yuan devaluation which is resulting in low GDP fig-
said. Roy, who was speaking at the cent this week, bringing its estimated gross domestic
ures while strengthening Rupee has helped India to
Overseas Indian Center (OIC) meet product to $4.04 trillion - about 2 percent larger than
achieve this landmark. Three Asian giants (China, Ja-
at Beijing on Tuesday evening, Germany's $3.96 trillion for the same year, based on
pan and India) occupying spots in top 5 positions re-
said the trade between China-India World Bank estimates. Government of India is
flects the story of fastest growing economies in the
after a brief slump in 2015-16, has expected to release its 2020 GDP figures next week.
world.
been growing at a “terrific” rate. United states continue to be at the top spot
“Today China is India’s 3rd largest Indian economy grew by an average of 12%
closely followed by China and Japan. United States
trading partner globally and first in every year for last decade. On the other hand, Ger-
GDP was reported to be 17.43 trillion dollars for
Asia, followed by Japan. However many grew at an average 2%. However, there are
2019.It grew by an average 2% for last decade and is
there is a much bigger scope to fur- signs of slowdown in Asian economies especially Chi-
expected to continue 2% growth in next 3 years. US
ther increase the share of Indian nese growth rate has declined to 9.3% which is below
could not recover from its 2009 recession as late as
companies in the Chinese market.”, forecasted 10.2%. If this slowdown spreads across
early 2015.
he said. Asia then Indian economy may also slow down.
Auto Scrap Piling Up Indian Pharmaceutical into the world’s top 10 pharmaceutical India to allow use of space
markets in the year 2015, overtaking Bra-
in the Metros market now 7th in the World zil, Mexico, South Korea and Turkey, technology to Brazil
Bureau Bureau when its market touched the US$ 20 billion
mark. The absolute growth of US $ 14 bil- In a landmark decision, India has decided to offer
During the past decade as pharmaceutical lion in 2015 over the last 10 years was next its Space Technology and expertise to Brazil con-
companies were scanning for new growth only to USA and China. firming its advancement in space related technolo-
Even though the major carmakers opportunities they realized that some of the As per the latest report the public gies.
are very conscious about recycling spending on healthcare which was 7 per
most promising are to be found in the
their vehicles already during the cent of GDP in 2007, 13 per cent of GDP . By Rahul Raj .
world’s leading developing economies. NEW DELHI
production, the auto scrap in the in 2015 stands now at 19 per cent of GDP.
developing countries are now 393 Due to India’s sustained economic growth, External Affairs Minister, Shashi Tharoor and Brazil-
healthcare reforms and pat- Overall the size of the phar-
million tons. This number has tri- ian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim met at Hydera-
ent related legislation it has maceutical market has
pled during the last 20 years. bad House in New Delhi and signed what is known as
become the preferred desti- crossed the US $ 26 billion Technology Safeguards Agreement (TSA) which
The introduction of End-
nation of pharmaceutical mark taking India to the 7th strengthens Indo-Brazil space ties.
of-Life Vehicle programs 15 years
industry. position in the world, just India is on the verge of launching its first
ago, where the producer of the car
The disease ahead of countries like Spain, manned Chandrayaan (Chandrayaan - 4) into space in a
also is responsible for the recy-
patterns in India have un- Italy and Canada. However week’s time which will establish India on the world
cling, is the reason that the recy-
dergone a shift. Increas- per capita annual spending on map alongside US. To strengthen ISRO’s (Indian
cling rate is now about 95% in the
ingly stressful lifestyles pharma products is still low Space Research Organization) supremacy, this deal
developed countries. Unfortu-
have led to significant in- and India ranks a dismal will allow India to help Brazil in their Space explora-
nately, the developing countries st
tions. India will be sharing its future space programs
creases in the incidence of 51 .
like India are still to follow. These with Brazil. This has come as a big achievement as
chronic diseases. While govt intervention Ranbaxy Laboratories Limited, the
developing countries are facing an Brazil, a component of BRIC nation which has shown
has brought some acute ailments under biggest pharmaceutical manufacturing
environmental challenge in taking tremendous growth over the last few years. Brazil ear-
control, a sizeable part of Indian population company in India, is now ranked at the 3rd
care of their auto scrap. The main lier relied heavily on United States for Space Tech-
remains susceptible to a wide range of position among the global generic pharma-
issue for them at present is how to nology.
acute diseases. ceutical companies and has presence in 75
handle non-ferrous metals, plastics Brazil would be using the space technology for
Driven by increasing affordability, countries including world class manufac-
and rubber that are more difficult applications such as land management, water resources
shifting disease pattern and modest health- turing facilities in 25 countries and serves management, natural disaster forecasting, radio net-
to recycle than steel and iron.
care reforms the Indian pharma industry to customers from over 140 countries. working, weather forecasting, meteorological imaging
has grown at a CAGR of 10% over the past and computer communication.
5 years. Indian pharma industry zoomed Brazil's space-launch program, coupled with
its artillery rocket technology, suggests that the country
has the potential to develop advanced missiles, includ-
ing ballistic missiles. Brazil no longer relies heavily on
the United States for space technology. India’s In-
dian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) will work
with the Brazilian National Institute for Space Re-
search (INPE), share data and help to develop and im-
plement scientific experiments, and train the institute's
technicians and scientists.
Bihar and their relatives outside used to feel insecure and the state which has tremendously helped building Knowl-
kept calling them during the day and night just to be as- edge capital. Villages have been upgraded and enough op-
sured that they are alright. portunities are provided to reduce migration to other states
Bihar’s per capita income has risen 4 times in last 12-15 like Maharashtra and Delhi. With awareness among people,
years and stands at ` 56740 well above the national average corruption has taken a back seat and growth and develop-
per capita income which is a proof of well being of the peo- ment has been the mantra which Bihar has followed.
ple in the state. Child mortality rate has been reduced with Several measures like free girl education and re-
better sanitation and hospital facilities and every macro ducing school drop-outs has helped Government to in-
socio-economic indicator tells a success story. crease the literacy level from the bottom. With the increase
All this has been possible with the planning and in per capita income of people in Bihar and economic pros-
efficient implementation of those plans. Bihar has been perity, crime has been greatly reduced. This has been one
working extensively on developing its infrastructure. Bihar reason in bringing back a lot of people who migrated to
is primarily an agriculture centric state and State Govern- other parts of the country initially for better life style
ment has worked towards strengthening its strength. A and security.
new water treaty signed with Bangladesh and Nepal has
worked wonders for Bihar and adjoining states. Dams have Nitish’s Bihar is an example of what good Governance can
By Rahul Raj been built and water storage has been efficient which re- do!
Special Correspondent duced flood/drought situation of every year and helped
farmers in irrigation during an uneven monsoon. Food
Not long ago, Bihar was considered one of the most back- reserves have been abundant. Bihar has started exporting
ward states in terms of developments, literacy rates, corrup- food grains to other parts of India and a good amount of
tion and administrative problems. However things have revenue is generated.
changed over the last 10 – 15 years. Gone are the days Opening up of IITs and IIMs along with several
when someone from other state used to attend functions in other reputed institutions have helped Bihar retain talent in
The labour force employed by Agriculture better or the signalling of famine with the
sector has dropped from 56% to 35% in the help of Demand-Supply projection helped
Last Decade but its contribution to the GDP the crop resource system to manage the de-
had reduced only from 18% to 16% because mand -supply of crops region ways.
of one and only reason Technology. The Another Significant improvement
Last Decade has witnessed a big impact of was the water management for Irrigation
technology in agriculture in diverse ways. purpose. With the Phase 1 of all River Join-
The focus areas where crop diversification, ing Project completed some region are now
Water Management, Organic farming, covered in the water management. For e.g.
agri-clinics, Bio-technology, Crop resource regions like Andhra Pradesh which are
system. prone to famine and less rain are now con-
Bio Technology along with Organic nected in the all river project. With the help
fertilizer was probably the most prominent of Early Warning System the region author-
revolution after the green revolution. The ity now had option of diverting some water
usage of genetic crops (which started as Bt in to store in the reservoir to protect the
Cotton in 2009 and extend to most of the fields getting affected from famine. As a
food crops) along with its organic fertilizer result of this the total systematic irrigated
was the shot in the arms which the Indian area stands around 297 M.H (88.9% of the
agriculture wanted. What this did was one, it total 340 M.H) as compared to 60 M.H a
increased yield per hectare of the crops from decade ago.
around 2 tonne/hectare to 4.1Kg/Hectare Another shift caused by technology
and reduced average quantity of fertilizer is the average hectare per farmer has in- Dr. APJ Abdul Kalam
needed thereby reducing the cost of the as- creased by more than 100% from 0.2 hectare
sociated with it. No to mention the advan- per person to around 0.5 hectare person as
tage organic fertilizer had on the Soil ero- the using technology for a small farm be- Economic Times salutes the Man behind the
comes an unsustainable large overhead.
sion and environment hazard which were
Thus, in the last decade small scale farmer vision of India 2020
caused by its predecessor.
Disaster Management system was have been on the decline as they end up
another booster which incorporated early merging with the medium or large scale
warning system; water management crop which can be issue in the long run of cartel
resource system and Demand supply projec- being formed for each region or each crop.
tion. What it did was diversified the risk of a
former to a certain extent. The early warning
system which warned the state or region of
the coming flood helped the region prepare
ECONOMY, FINANCE & MARKETS
SENSEX : 43723.00 | NIFTY : 13174.04 | DOW: 32678 | THE ECONOMIC TIMES THURSDAY 2 JANUARY 2020
5
Rupee ends at 32.23/24
against Dollar Sensex dips 126 pts on profit-booking TODAY’s Bets
. Our Bureau . . By Purnendu . of its sales in Europe and South America slid
NEW DELHI the most and came down to INR 1600. On the Nifty range bound at
other hand the shares of TCS, the fourth larg-
THE Bombay Stock Exchanges (BSE) bench- est Software Company in the world, rallied on 12700-13400
mark index Sensex closed 0.3% lower on reports of strong Q3 earnings and closed at
Tuesday, ending a two weeks rally as investors INR 8000. The Nifty witnesses rollover of 37% as Janu-
booked profit ahead of the announcement of Fitch increased it long-term credit rat- ary contracts are trading at a premium of 6
GDP figures of the United States. ing on Yes Bank, while Standard & Poor points, indicating long rollover to January
NEW DELHI The 50 share barometer of the BSE, slashed Saudi Arab’s economic growth fore- series. Most of the large major stocks have
which rallied over 600 points to settle at its cast. “The middle east is still a concern”, said seen good rollover with a positive cost of
The rupee rose more than 1% highest level in more than two months on Rajiv Mundra, vice-president of Standard &
on Tuesday, as the Yuan’s as- carry, indicating long carry forward to Janu-
Monday, witnessed profit- booking in banking, Poor. “There is no tearing hurry to be bullish ary series.
cent against the Dollar triggered metal and IT stocks to finish the trade at on Middle East as the numbers look
selling in the US currency by The Nifty initially gained due to short cover-
43723.20 points, down 131.2 points from stretched.” He advised investors to avoid ing, but witnessed fresh buying later. The
importers. 43854.00 of Monday, 31st Dec 2019. The bell- shares in Oil companies.
The partially convertible January series witnessed a rally of nearly 800
wether opened on a weak note, tracking global Top lender State Bank of India (SBI) dropped points due to overall positive sentiments,
rupee ended at 32.23/24 per cues. During the markets, the Sensex touched 0.2% while leading private sector lenders
dollar, about 1% stronger than from a low of 12700 to the highs of 13210
a low of 43763.67 points but ended above that ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank lost 0.22% and levels. Options
its Tuesday close of 31.91/92 level. 0.29%, respectively. Mortgage lender HDFC concentration has
when it had climbed as high as Likewise, the Nifty index of the National declined 0.4%. F&O
31.99 during trade, its strongest shifted to the
since November.
Stock Exchange (NSE) ended 0.27% lower at The Sensex has outperformed broader TRACKER 12700-strike put
13174.04 points. indices so far this year. It climbed 4.5% this option with an
“How the rupee trades to- The fall comes over waning excitement over
morrow will be mostly depend- month through Monday as investors bought open interest of above 120 lakh shares in
Russia moving towards limited float of its cur- January, closely followed by the 13400
ent on mostly where the Euro rency that would allow it to appreciate against shares in companies that will benefit from ex-
and Yuan are against the dollar. panding domestic demand. Metals makers ral- strike call option with above 110 lakh shares
the US Dollar. in the December expiry.
But I see a range of 32.20 to NTPC, the Power major declined by lied in line with regional peers, while hopes of
32.30”, said a senior dealer This options concentration suggests
2.3% amidst concern over the inventory levels robust domestic corporate earnings also helped the near term range of 12700 to 13400. How-
with a foreign bank. in its coal powered plants. Tanla Solutions, the sentiment. ever there are more put writing than the call
leader in Telecom solutions that gets one-fifth writing which indicates bullish sentiments.
Implied volatility of the index has shown a
downward trend.
India hopes to
maintain double digit
Indian Railways Cargo Division IPO
growth in 2020-21 may happen next fiscal
. Bureau .
1 Jan 2020, 1433 hrs IST,PTI "The company's financials are doing
MOSCOW NEW DELHI: The government on Wednes- pretty badly and it certainly shouldn't be so
day mulled poor financial performance of because cargo transport as you know it is
The Indian economy, World’s Indian Railways Cargo Division and made a one of the sectors that you have to be com-
case for disinvestment in PSU behemoth petitive and they (IR) have to pull up," WHAT TO
fourth largest after US, China
and Japan, is confident of main- through an initial public offer. WATCH OUT FOR
taining the double digit growth The government may announce a
rate in 2020-21, said trade min- "I hope Indian Railways (IR) IPO roadmap for disinvestment in PSUs through
ister Jyotiraditya Scindhia on happens in the coming year (2020-21). I IPOs and follow-on public offer (FPOs) by GATEWAY DISTRIPARK: Will
Tuesday during a visit to Russia. can't say exactly when, but I certainly hope March this year and IR announce dividend and audited results.
“We hope to grow at the robust that it does happen Cargo could be one of DCB: Will announce consolidated
rate between 12% to 13% this because IR does need the PSUs out of 50 audited results
year and we are optimistic, to open up to public companies identified by NHPC: Will announce dividend and
rather confident, that we will ownership primarily the government. bonus
maintain India’s double digit with a view to
growth rate”, he told during a strengthen its own Indian Rail-
business conference in Moscow. management and its ways, which was eye- WORLD
“We have the largest accountability," Dis- ing a top slot in the
middle class in the world, equal investment Secretary cargo market at one
Sunil Mitra told news US: The Federal Open Market com-
to the population of all of point of time, is strug-
c h a n n e l . mittee, which sets interest rates, will
Europe combined together, the gling to retain its posi-
The PSU has meet. The committee is unlikely to
demand for goods will keep tion.
been negotiating with raise the rates.
driving the growth”, he added. .
the adamant trade unions, which have been EU: The EU members will meet in
The company is also in process to
opposing any disinvestment as they (unions) Vienna to discuss the EU constitution
add specially designed cargo trains at an
SENSEX feel that it (disinvestment or listing) will investment of over ` 35,000 crore and had
and amendments.
serve no interests of the people. China: Considering its outsourcing
floated the tender nearly 18 months ago but
policy due to concerns being raised
being a government-owned company it has
43849 The government had earlier pro- over increasing unemployment.
been facing bureaucratic hurdles to place
SENSEX
posed to divest 5 per cent stake in the PSU orders with the lowest bidders.
43723 and the same was felt at a recent review Disinvestment and listing would
meeting chaired by Prime Minister Rahul help the PSU to take decisions faster and
G a n d h i . compete with the competitive road cargo
companies. effectively and efficiently.
9 AM 4 PM
INTERNATIONAL
6 THE ECONOMIC TIMES THURSDAY 2 JANUARY 2020