Week Day Demand

1 Monday 2,999 Instructions:

Tuesday 3,049 1. Using the data for the first 7 weeks (column C), insert a scatter plot.
Wednesday 3,309 2. On the scatter plot, add the linear trendline, make sure to display trendline e
Thursday 3,204 3. Use the trendline equation to develop the values on the trendline, for weeks
Friday 3,119 4. Compute the 5-period centered moving average.
2 Monday 3,060 5. Use the demand data and the 5-period centered moving average to determin
Tuesday 3,048 6. Use the seasonal relatives to determine the seasonally-adjusted forecasts, fo
Wednesday 3,760 7. Compute the MAD, MSE, and MFE for the forecast errors for weeks 1 through
Thursday 2,961
Friday 3,107
3 Monday 2,924
Tuesday 2,917
Wednesday 3,053
Thursday 3,435
Friday 3,089
4 Monday 2,973
Tuesday 3,736
Wednesday 3,387
Thursday 3,192
Friday 3,110
5 Monday 3,022
Tuesday 3,086
Wednesday 3,455
Thursday 3,337
Friday 3,135
6 Monday 3,107
Tuesday 3,412
Wednesday 3,778
Thursday 3,590
Friday 3,647
7 Monday 3,435
Tuesday 3,447
Wednesday 3,461
Thursday 3,473
Friday 3,485
8 Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
rt a scatter plot.
ure to display trendline equation and R-squared.
the trendline, for weeks 1 through 8.

ving average to determine the seasonal relatives.

lly-adjusted forecasts, for weeks 1 through 8.
rrors for weeks 1 through 7.
Week Day Day Demand
1 Monday 1 2,999 Instructions:
Tuesday 2 3,049 1. Using the data for the first 7 weeks (column C), insert a scatt
Wednesday 3 3,309
Thursday 4 3,204 Right click Column C (Demand), and choose "insert" to insert a c
Friday 5 3,119 Label the new column "Day", and number the days, i.e., 1, 2, …,
2 Monday 6 3,060
Tuesday 7 3,048
Wednesday 8 3,760
Thursday 9 2,961
Friday 10 3,107
3 Monday 11 2,924
Tuesday 12 2,917
Wednesday 13 3,053
Thursday 14 3,435
Friday 15 3,089
4 Monday 16 2,973
Tuesday 17 3,736
Wednesday 18 3,387
Thursday 19 3,192
Friday 20 3,110
5 Monday 21 3,022
Tuesday 22 3,086
Wednesday 23 3,455
Thursday 24 3,337
Friday 25 3,135
6 Monday 26 3,107
Tuesday 27 3,412
Wednesday 28 3,778
Thursday 29 3,590
Friday 30 3,647
7 Monday 31 3,435
Tuesday 32 3,447
Wednesday 33 3,461
Thursday 34 3,473
Friday 35 3,485
8 Monday 36
Tuesday 37
Wednesday 38
Thursday 39
Friday 40
weeks (column C), insert a scatter plot.

and choose "insert" to insert a column.

d number the days, i.e., 1, 2, …, 40.
Week Day Day Demand
1 Monday 1 2,999 Instructions:
Tuesday 2 3,049 1. Using the data for the first 7 weeks (column C), insert a scatte
Wednesday 3 3,309 Click and drag to choose data in Columns C and D (C1:D36)
Thursday 4 3,204 Insert chart, choose "scatter."
Friday 5 3,119 You may also want to remove the "legend" on the right.
2 Monday 6 3,060
Tuesday 7 3,048
Wednesday 8 3,760
Thursday 9 2,961
Friday 10 3,107
3 Monday 11 2,924
Tuesday 12 2,917
Wednesday 13 3,053
Thursday 14 3,435
Friday 15 3,089
4 Monday 16 2,973
Tuesday 17 3,736
Wednesday 18 3,387
Thursday 19 3,192
Friday 20 3,110
5 Monday 21 3,022
Tuesday 22 3,086
Wednesday 23 3,455
Thursday 24 3,337
Friday 25 3,135
6 Monday 26 3,107
Tuesday 27 3,412
Wednesday 28 3,778
Thursday 29 3,590
Friday 30 3,647
7 Monday 31 3,435
Tuesday 32 3,447
Wednesday 33 3,461
Thursday 34 3,473
Friday 35 3,485
8 Monday 36
Tuesday 37
Wednesday 38
Thursday 39
Friday 40
weeks (column C), insert a scatter plot.
Columns C and D (C1:D36)

e "legend" on the right.

Demand
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000 Demand
1,500
1,000
500
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
 Demand

40
Week Day Day Demand
1 Monday 1 2,999 Instructions:
Tuesday 2 3,049
Wednesday 3 3,309 2. On the scatter plot, add the linear trendline, make sure to dis
Thursday 4 3,204 Move the cursor to any point on the scatter plot, right click and
Friday 5 3,119 Choose the appropriate trendline. Make sure to check the two b
2 Monday 6 3,060 Take note that the slope =12.947 and the intercept is 3032.7
Tuesday 7 3,048 To improve readability, you may also want to move the trendline
Wednesday 8 3,760
Thursday 9 2,961
Friday 10 3,107
3 Monday 11 2,924
Tuesday 12 2,917
Wednesday 13 3,053
Thursday 14 3,435
Friday 15 3,089
4 Monday 16 2,973
Tuesday 17 3,736
Wednesday 18 3,387
Thursday 19 3,192
Friday 20 3,110
5 Monday 21 3,022
Tuesday 22 3,086
Wednesday 23 3,455
Thursday 24 3,337
Friday 25 3,135
6 Monday 26 3,107
Tuesday 27 3,412
Wednesday 28 3,778
Thursday 29 3,590
Friday 30 3,647
7 Monday 31 3,435
Tuesday 32 3,447
Wednesday 33 3,461
Thursday 34 3,473
Friday 35 3,485
8 Monday 36
Tuesday 37
Wednesday 38
Thursday 39
Friday 40
 near trendline, make sure to display trendline equation and R-squared.
n the scatter plot, right click and choose "Add Trendline."
e. Make sure to check the two boxes at the bottom (show Equation, show R-squared)
7 and the intercept is 3032.7
also want to move the trendline equation and R-squared.

Chart Title
4,000
3,500
f(x) = 12.9470588235294 x + 3032.7243697479
3,000 R² = 0.272992089358929
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
35 40
Week Day Day Demand Trendline
1 Monday 1 2,999 3,046 Instructions:
Tuesday 2 3,049
Wednesday 3 3,309 2. On the scatter plot, add the linear trendline, mak
Thursday 4 3,204
Friday 5 3,119 Insert a column, and add the label "Trendline" on to
2 Monday 6 3,060 For day 1, the x value is in cell C2. The Y value in cell
Tuesday 7 3,048 Notice that 12.947 and 3032.7 are the slope and inte
Wednesday 8 3,760
Thursday 9 2,961
Friday 10 3,107
3 Monday 11 2,924
Tuesday 12 2,917
Wednesday 13 3,053
Thursday 14 3,435
Friday 15 3,089
4 Monday 16 2,973
Tuesday 17 3,736
Wednesday 18 3,387
Thursday 19 3,192
Friday 20 3,110
5 Monday 21 3,022
Tuesday 22 3,086
Wednesday 23 3,455
Thursday 24 3,337
Friday 25 3,135
6 Monday 26 3,107
Tuesday 27 3,412
Wednesday 28 3,778
Thursday 29 3,590
Friday 30 3,647
7 Monday 31 3,435
Tuesday 32 3,447
Wednesday 33 3,461
Thursday 34 3,473
Friday 35 3,485
8 Monday 36
Tuesday 37
Wednesday 38
Thursday 39
Friday 40
 , add the linear trendline, make sure to display trendline equation and R-squared.

add the label "Trendline" on top.

e is in cell C2. The Y value in cell E2 = 12.947*C2 + 3032.7;
d 3032.7 are the slope and intercept, respective, of the trendline equation.
Week Day Day Demand Trendline
1 Monday 1 2,999 3,046 Instructions:
Tuesday 2 3,049 3,059
Wednesday 3 3,309 3,072
Thursday 4 3,204 3,084 3. Use the trendline equation to develop the values
Friday 5 3,119 3,097
2 Monday 6 3,060 3,110 Copy the formula in cell E2, and paste all the way th
Tuesday 7 3,048 3,123
Wednesday 8 3,760 3,136
Thursday 9 2,961 3,149
Friday 10 3,107 3,162
3 Monday 11 2,924 3,175
Tuesday 12 2,917 3,188
Wednesday 13 3,053 3,201
Thursday 14 3,435 3,214
Friday 15 3,089 3,227
4 Monday 16 2,973 3,240
Tuesday 17 3,736 3,253
Wednesday 18 3,387 3,266
Thursday 19 3,192 3,279
Friday 20 3,110 3,292
5 Monday 21 3,022 3,305
Tuesday 22 3,086 3,318
Wednesday 23 3,455 3,330
Thursday 24 3,337 3,343
Friday 25 3,135 3,356
6 Monday 26 3,107 3,369
Tuesday 27 3,412 3,382
Wednesday 28 3,778 3,395
Thursday 29 3,590 3,408
Friday 30 3,647 3,421
7 Monday 31 3,435 3,434
Tuesday 32 3,447 3,447
Wednesday 33 3,461 3,460
Thursday 34 3,473 3,473
Friday 35 3,485 3,486
8 Monday 36 3,499
Tuesday 37 3,512
Wednesday 38 3,525
Thursday 39 3,538
Friday 40 3,551
equation to develop the values on the trendline, for weeks 1 through 8.

cell E2, and paste all the way through week 8.

Week Day Day Demand Trendline 5 Prd MA
1 Monday 1 2,999 3,046 Instructions:
Tuesday 2 3,049 3,059
Wednesday 3 3,309 3,072 3,136
Thursday 4 3,204 3,084
Friday 5 3,119 3,097 4. Compute the 5-period centered movin
2 Monday 6 3,060 3,110 Insert a column and enter the heading "
Tuesday 7 3,048 3,123 The "center" of a 5 week moving average
Wednesday 8 3,760 3,136 On cell F4 (Week 1, Wednesday), enter th
Thursday 9 2,961 3,149
Friday 10 3,107 3,162
3 Monday 11 2,924 3,175
Tuesday 12 2,917 3,188
Wednesday 13 3,053 3,201
Thursday 14 3,435 3,214
Friday 15 3,089 3,227
4 Monday 16 2,973 3,240
Tuesday 17 3,736 3,253
Wednesday 18 3,387 3,266
Thursday 19 3,192 3,279 NOTE: F4=AVERAGE(D2:D6)
Friday 20 3,110 3,292 This is the moving average of
5 Monday 21 3,022 3,305
Tuesday 22 3,086 3,318
Wednesday 23 3,455 3,330
Thursday 24 3,337 3,343
Friday 25 3,135 3,356
6 Monday 26 3,107 3,369
Tuesday 27 3,412 3,382
Wednesday 28 3,778 3,395
Thursday 29 3,590 3,408
Friday 30 3,647 3,421
7 Monday 31 3,435 3,434
Tuesday 32 3,447 3,447
Wednesday 33 3,461 3,460
Thursday 34 3,473 3,473
Friday 35 3,485 3,486
8 Monday 36 3,499
Tuesday 37 3,512
Wednesday 38 3,525
Thursday 39 3,538
Friday 40 3,551
 e the 5-period centered moving average.
olumn and enter the heading "5 Prd MA"
er" of a 5 week moving average is on the 3rd day (Wednesday).
(Week 1, Wednesday), enter the formula for the 5-day demand.

F4=AVERAGE(D2:D6)
This is the moving average of ACTUAL demand.
Week Day Day Demand Trendline 5 Prd MA
1 Monday 1 2,999 3,046 Instructions:
Tuesday 2 3,049 3,059
Wednesday 3 3,309 3,072 3,136
Thursday 4 3,204 3,084 3,148
Friday 5 3,119 3,097 3,148 4. Compute the 5-period centered movin
2 Monday 6 3,060 3,110 3,238 Copy the formula in cell F4, and paste it
Tuesday 7 3,048 3,123 3,190 Question: Why stop at Wednesday of W
Wednesday 8 3,760 3,136 3,187
Thursday 9 2,961 3,149 3,160
Friday 10 3,107 3,162 3,134
3 Monday 11 2,924 3,175 2,992
Tuesday 12 2,917 3,188 3,087
Wednesday 13 3,053 3,201 3,084
Thursday 14 3,435 3,214 3,093
Friday 15 3,089 3,227 3,257
4 Monday 16 2,973 3,240 3,324
Tuesday 17 3,736 3,253 3,275
Wednesday 18 3,387 3,266 3,280
Thursday 19 3,192 3,279 3,289
Friday 20 3,110 3,292 3,159
5 Monday 21 3,022 3,305 3,173
Tuesday 22 3,086 3,318 3,202
Wednesday 23 3,455 3,330 3,207
Thursday 24 3,337 3,343 3,224
Friday 25 3,135 3,356 3,289
6 Monday 26 3,107 3,369 3,354
Tuesday 27 3,412 3,382 3,404
Wednesday 28 3,778 3,395 3,507
Thursday 29 3,590 3,408 3,572
Friday 30 3,647 3,421 3,579
7 Monday 31 3,435 3,434 3,516
Tuesday 32 3,447 3,447 3,493
Wednesday 33 3,461 3,460 3,460
Thursday 34 3,473 3,473
Friday 35 3,485 3,486
8 Monday 36 3,499
Tuesday 37 3,512
Wednesday 38 3,525
Thursday 39 3,538
Friday 40 3,551
e the 5-period centered moving average.
ormula in cell F4, and paste it all the way to the Wednesday of Week 7.
Why stop at Wednesday of Week 7?
Week Day Day Demand Trendline 5 Prd MA Ratio
1 Monday 1 2,999 3,046 Instructions:
Tuesday 2 3,049 3,059
Wednesday 3 3,309 3,072 3,136 1.06
Thursday 4 3,204 3,084 3,148
Friday 5 3,119 3,097 3,148 1
2 Monday 6 3,060 3,110 3,238 5. Use the demand data and
Tuesday 7 3,048 3,123 3,190 Insert a Column, and label it
Wednesday 8 3,760 3,136 3,187 Compute the ratio by dividin
Thursday 9 2,961 3,149 3,160 On cell G4 (Week 1, Wednesd
Friday 10 3,107 3,162 3,134 You may need to format the
3 Monday 11 2,924 3,175 2,992
Tuesday 12 2,917 3,188 3,087
Wednesday 13 3,053 3,201 3,084
Thursday 14 3,435 3,214 3,093
Friday 15 3,089 3,227 3,257
4 Monday 16 2,973 3,240 3,324
Tuesday 17 3,736 3,253 3,275
Wednesday 18 3,387 3,266 3,280
Thursday 19 3,192 3,279 3,289
Friday 20 3,110 3,292 3,159
5 Monday 21 3,022 3,305 3,173
Tuesday 22 3,086 3,318 3,202 NOTE:
Wednesday 23 3,455 3,330 3,207
Thursday 24 3,337 3,343 3,224
Friday 25 3,135 3,356 3,289
6 Monday 26 3,107 3,369 3,354
Tuesday 27 3,412 3,382 3,404
Wednesday 28 3,778 3,395 3,507
Thursday 29 3,590 3,408 3,572
Friday 30 3,647 3,421 3,579
7 Monday 31 3,435 3,434 3,516
Tuesday 32 3,447 3,447 3,493
Wednesday 33 3,461 3,460 3,460
Thursday 34 3,473 3,473
Friday 35 3,485 3,486
8 Monday 36 3,499
Tuesday 37 3,512
Wednesday 38 3,525
Thursday 39 3,538
Friday 40 3,551
Instructions:

5. Use the demand data and the 5-period centered moving average to determine the seasonal relatives.
Insert a Column, and label it "Ratio."
Compute the ratio by dividing the demand by the 5 period moving average.
On cell G4 (Week 1, Wednesday), enter the formula for the ratio.
You may need to format the results by increasing the decimal places.

G4=D4/F4
This is the ratio of the ACTUAL demand divided by the moving average.
Week Day Day Demand Trendline 5 Prd MA Ratio
1 Monday 1 2,999 3,046 Instructions:
Tuesday 2 3,049 3,059
Wednesday 3 3,309 3,072 3,136 1.06
Thursday 4 3,204 3,084 3,148 1.02
Friday 5 3,119 3,097 3,148 0.99
2 Monday 6 3,060 3,110 3,238 0.94 5. Use the demand data and
Tuesday 7 3,048 3,123 3,190 0.96 Copy the formula in cell G4,
Wednesday 8 3,760 3,136 3,187 1.18
Thursday 9 2,961 3,149 3,160 0.94
Friday 10 3,107 3,162 3,134 0.99
3 Monday 11 2,924 3,175 2,992 0.98
Tuesday 12 2,917 3,188 3,087 0.94
Wednesday 13 3,053 3,201 3,084 0.99
Thursday 14 3,435 3,214 3,093 1.11
Friday 15 3,089 3,227 3,257 0.95
4 Monday 16 2,973 3,240 3,324 0.89
Tuesday 17 3,736 3,253 3,275 1.14
Wednesday 18 3,387 3,266 3,280 1.03
Thursday 19 3,192 3,279 3,289 0.97
Friday 20 3,110 3,292 3,159 0.98
5 Monday 21 3,022 3,305 3,173 0.95
Tuesday 22 3,086 3,318 3,202 0.96
Wednesday 23 3,455 3,330 3,207 1.08
Thursday 24 3,337 3,343 3,224 1.04
Friday 25 3,135 3,356 3,289 0.95
6 Monday 26 3,107 3,369 3,354 0.93
Tuesday 27 3,412 3,382 3,404 1.00
Wednesday 28 3,778 3,395 3,507 1.08
Thursday 29 3,590 3,408 3,572 1.00
Friday 30 3,647 3,421 3,579 1.02
7 Monday 31 3,435 3,434 3,516 0.98
Tuesday 32 3,447 3,447 3,493 0.99
Wednesday 33 3,461 3,460 3,460 1.00
Thursday 34 3,473 3,473
Friday 35 3,485 3,486
8 Monday 36 3,499
Tuesday 37 3,512
Wednesday 38 3,525
Thursday 39 3,538
Friday 40 3,551
Instructions:

5. Use the demand data and the 5-period centered moving average to determine the seasonal relatives.
Copy the formula in cell G4, and paste it all the way to the Wednesday of Week 7.
Week Day Day Demand Trendline 5 Prd MA Ratio Seasonal Rel
1 Monday 1 2,999 3,046
Tuesday 2 3,049 3,059
Wednesday 3 3,309 3,072 3,136 1.06 1.06
Thursday 4 3,204 3,084 3,148 1.02 1.01
Friday 5 3,119 3,097 3,148 0.99 0.98
2 Monday 6 3,060 3,110 3,238 0.94 0.95
Tuesday 7 3,048 3,123 3,190 0.96 1.00
Wednesday 8 3,760 3,136 3,187 1.18
Thursday 9 2,961 3,149 3,160 0.94
Friday 10 3,107 3,162 3,134 0.99
3 Monday 11 2,924 3,175 2,992 0.98
Tuesday 12 2,917 3,188 3,087 0.94
Wednesday 13 3,053 3,201 3,084 0.99
Thursday 14 3,435 3,214 3,093 1.11
Friday 15 3,089 3,227 3,257 0.95
4 Monday 16 2,973 3,240 3,324 0.89
Tuesday 17 3,736 3,253 3,275 1.14
Wednesday 18 3,387 3,266 3,280 1.03
Thursday 19 3,192 3,279 3,289 0.97
Friday 20 3,110 3,292 3,159 0.98
5 Monday 21 3,022 3,305 3,173 0.95
Tuesday 22 3,086 3,318 3,202 0.96
Wednesday 23 3,455 3,330 3,207 1.08
Thursday 24 3,337 3,343 3,224 1.04
Friday 25 3,135 3,356 3,289 0.95
6 Monday 26 3,107 3,369 3,354 0.93
Tuesday 27 3,412 3,382 3,404 1.00
Wednesday 28 3,778 3,395 3,507 1.08
Thursday 29 3,590 3,408 3,572 1.00
Friday 30 3,647 3,421 3,579 1.02
7 Monday 31 3,435 3,434 3,516 0.98
Tuesday 32 3,447 3,447 3,493 0.99
Wednesday 33 3,461 3,460 3,460 1.00
Thursday 34 3,473 3,473
Friday 35 3,485 3,486
8 Monday 36 3,499
Tuesday 37 3,512
Wednesday 38 3,525
Thursday 39 3,538
Friday 40 3,551
Instructions:

5. Use the demand data and the 5-period centered moving average to determine the seasonal relatives.
Insert a column and label it "Seasonal Rel."
Compute the seasonal relatives for:
Wednesday by taking the average of all ratio corresponding to Wednesdays Cell H4=AVERAGE(G4,G9,G14,G19,G24
Thursday by taking the average of all ratio corresponding to Thursday (Cell H5).
Friday by taking the average of all ratio corresponding to Friday (Cell H6).
Monday by taking the average of all ratio corresponding to Monday (cell H7)
Tuesday by taking the average of all ratio corresponding to Tuesday (Cell H8)
asonal relatives.

RAGE(G4,G9,G14,G19,G24,G29,G34).
Week Day Day Demand Trendline 5 Prd MA Ratio Seasonal Rel
1 Monday 1 2,999 3,046
Tuesday 2 3,049 3,059
Wednesday 3 3,309 3,072 3,136 1.06 1.06
Thursday 4 3,204 3,084 3,148 1.02 1.01
Friday 5 3,119 3,097 3,148 0.99 0.98
2 Monday 6 3,060 3,110 3,238 0.94 0.95
Tuesday 7 3,048 3,123 3,190 0.96 1.00
Wednesday 8 3,760 3,136 3,187 1.18 1.06
Thursday 9 2,961 3,149 3,160 0.94 1.01
Friday 10 3,107 3,162 3,134 0.99 0.98
3 Monday 11 2,924 3,175 2,992 0.98 0.95
Tuesday 12 2,917 3,188 3,087 0.94 1.00
Wednesday 13 3,053 3,201 3,084 0.99
Thursday 14 3,435 3,214 3,093 1.11
Friday 15 3,089 3,227 3,257 0.95
4 Monday 16 2,973 3,240 3,324 0.89
Tuesday 17 3,736 3,253 3,275 1.14
Wednesday 18 3,387 3,266 3,280 1.03
Thursday 19 3,192 3,279 3,289 0.97
Friday 20 3,110 3,292 3,159 0.98
5 Monday 21 3,022 3,305 3,173 0.95
Tuesday 22 3,086 3,318 3,202 0.96
Wednesday 23 3,455 3,330 3,207 1.08
Thursday 24 3,337 3,343 3,224 1.04
Friday 25 3,135 3,356 3,289 0.95
6 Monday 26 3,107 3,369 3,354 0.93
Tuesday 27 3,412 3,382 3,404 1.00
Wednesday 28 3,778 3,395 3,507 1.08
Thursday 29 3,590 3,408 3,572 1.00
Friday 30 3,647 3,421 3,579 1.02
7 Monday 31 3,435 3,434 3,516 0.98
Tuesday 32 3,447 3,447 3,493 0.99
Wednesday 33 3,461 3,460 3,460 1.00
Thursday 34 3,473 3,473
Friday 35 3,485 3,486
8 Monday 36 3,499
Tuesday 37 3,512
Wednesday 38 3,525
Thursday 39 3,538
Friday 40 3,551
Instructions:

5. Use the demand data and the 5-period centered moving average to determine the seasonal relatives.
Copy the first 5 sesaonal relatives,
and use "Paste Special" to paste the VALUES downwards (next 5 days)
asonal relatives.
Week Day Day Demand Trendline 5 Prd MA Ratio Seasonal Rel
1 Monday 1 2,999 3,046
Tuesday 2 3,049 3,059
Wednesday 3 3,309 3,072 3,136 1.06 1.06
Thursday 4 3,204 3,084 3,148 1.02 1.01
Friday 5 3,119 3,097 3,148 0.99 0.98
2 Monday 6 3,060 3,110 3,238 0.94 0.95
Tuesday 7 3,048 3,123 3,190 0.96 1.00
Wednesday 8 3,760 3,136 3,187 1.18 1.06
Thursday 9 2,961 3,149 3,160 0.94 1.01
Friday 10 3,107 3,162 3,134 0.99 0.98
3 Monday 11 2,924 3,175 2,992 0.98 0.95
Tuesday 12 2,917 3,188 3,087 0.94 1.00
Wednesday 13 3,053 3,201 3,084 0.99 1.06
Thursday 14 3,435 3,214 3,093 1.11 1.01
Friday 15 3,089 3,227 3,257 0.95 0.98
4 Monday 16 2,973 3,240 3,324 0.89 0.95
Tuesday 17 3,736 3,253 3,275 1.14 1.00
Wednesday 18 3,387 3,266 3,280 1.03 1.06
Thursday 19 3,192 3,279 3,289 0.97 1.01
Friday 20 3,110 3,292 3,159 0.98 0.98
5 Monday 21 3,022 3,305 3,173 0.95 0.95
Tuesday 22 3,086 3,318 3,202 0.96 1.00
Wednesday 23 3,455 3,330 3,207 1.08 1.06
Thursday 24 3,337 3,343 3,224 1.04 1.01
Friday 25 3,135 3,356 3,289 0.95 0.98
6 Monday 26 3,107 3,369 3,354 0.93 0.95
Tuesday 27 3,412 3,382 3,404 1.00 1.00
Wednesday 28 3,778 3,395 3,507 1.08 1.06
Thursday 29 3,590 3,408 3,572 1.00 1.01
Friday 30 3,647 3,421 3,579 1.02 0.98
7 Monday 31 3,435 3,434 3,516 0.98 0.95
Tuesday 32 3,447 3,447 3,493 0.99 1.00
Wednesday 33 3,461 3,460 3,460 1.00 1.06
Thursday 34 3,473 3,473 1.01
Friday 35 3,485 3,486 0.98
8 Monday 36 3,499 0.95
Tuesday 37 3,512 1.00
Wednesday 38 3,525 1.06
Thursday 39 3,538 1.01
Friday 40 3,551 0.98
0.95
1.00
Instructions:

5. Use the demand data and the 5-period centered moving average to determine the seasonal relatives.
Repeat until you have pasted the seasonal relatives all the way down, past the 8th week.
asonal relatives.
Week Day Day Demand Trendline 5 Prd MA Ratio Seasonal Rel
1 Monday 1 2,999 3,046
Tuesday 2 3,049 3,059
Wednesday 3 3,309 3,072 3,136 1.06 1.06
Thursday 4 3,204 3,084 3,148 1.02 1.01
Friday 5 3,119 3,097 3,148 0.99 0.98
2 Monday 6 3,060 3,110 3,238 0.94 0.95
Tuesday 7 3,048 3,123 3,190 0.96 1.00
Wednesday 8 3,760 3,136 3,187 1.18 1.06
Thursday 9 2,961 3,149 3,160 0.94 1.01
Friday 10 3,107 3,162 3,134 0.99 0.98
3 Monday 11 2,924 3,175 2,992 0.98 0.95
Tuesday 12 2,917 3,188 3,087 0.94 1.00
Wednesday 13 3,053 3,201 3,084 0.99 1.06
Thursday 14 3,435 3,214 3,093 1.11 1.01
Friday 15 3,089 3,227 3,257 0.95 0.98
4 Monday 16 2,973 3,240 3,324 0.89 0.95
Tuesday 17 3,736 3,253 3,275 1.14 1.00
Wednesday 18 3,387 3,266 3,280 1.03 1.06
Thursday 19 3,192 3,279 3,289 0.97 1.01
Friday 20 3,110 3,292 3,159 0.98 0.98
5 Monday 21 3,022 3,305 3,173 0.95 0.95
Tuesday 22 3,086 3,318 3,202 0.96 1.00
Wednesday 23 3,455 3,330 3,207 1.08 1.06
Thursday 24 3,337 3,343 3,224 1.04 1.01
Friday 25 3,135 3,356 3,289 0.95 0.98
6 Monday 26 3,107 3,369 3,354 0.93 0.95
Tuesday 27 3,412 3,382 3,404 1.00 1.00
Wednesday 28 3,778 3,395 3,507 1.08 1.06
Thursday 29 3,590 3,408 3,572 1.00 1.01
Friday 30 3,647 3,421 3,579 1.02 0.98
7 Monday 31 3,435 3,434 3,516 0.98 0.95
Tuesday 32 3,447 3,447 3,493 0.99 1.00
Wednesday 33 3,461 3,460 3,460 1.00 1.06
Thursday 34 3,473 3,473 1.01
Friday 35 3,485 3,486 0.98
8 Monday 36 3,499 0.95
Tuesday 37 3,512 1.00
Wednesday 38 3,525 1.06
Thursday 39 3,538 1.01
Friday 40 3,551 0.98
0.95
1.00
ADJ Forecast
Instructions:

3,253
3,123
3,039
2,941
3,120 6. Use the seasonal relatives to determine the seasonally-adjusted forecasts, for weeks 1 throu
3,321 Insert a column and labe it "ADJ Forecast"
3,189 The seasonally adjusted forecast = the value on the trendline * seasonal relative.
3,103
3,002
3,185
3,390
3,254
3,166
3,063
3,250
3,458
3,320
3,230 Copy the formula and paste all the end of week 8.
3,124 You may have to decrease the decimal places.
3,314 The forecase for week 8 is shown in column I, rows 37-41.
3,527
3,386
3,293
3,185
3,379
3,595
3,451
3,357
3,247
3,444
3,664
3,517
3,420
3,308
3,508
3,732
3,582
3,484
d forecasts, for weeks 1 through 8.

asonal relative.
Week Day Day Demand Trendline 5 Prd MA Ratio Seasonal Rel
1 Monday 1 2,999 3,046
Tuesday 2 3,049 3,059
Wednesday 3 3,309 3,072 3,136 1.06 1.06
Thursday 4 3,204 3,084 3,148 1.02 1.01
Friday 5 3,119 3,097 3,148 0.99 0.98
2 Monday 6 3,060 3,110 3,238 0.94 0.95
Tuesday 7 3,048 3,123 3,190 0.96 1.00
Wednesday 8 3,760 3,136 3,187 1.18 1.06
Thursday 9 2,961 3,149 3,160 0.94 1.01
Friday 10 3,107 3,162 3,134 0.99 0.98
3 Monday 11 2,924 3,175 2,992 0.98 0.95
Tuesday 12 2,917 3,188 3,087 0.94 1.00
Wednesday 13 3,053 3,201 3,084 0.99 1.06
Thursday 14 3,435 3,214 3,093 1.11 1.01
Friday 15 3,089 3,227 3,257 0.95 0.98
4 Monday 16 2,973 3,240 3,324 0.89 0.95
Tuesday 17 3,736 3,253 3,275 1.14 1.00
Wednesday 18 3,387 3,266 3,280 1.03 1.06
Thursday 19 3,192 3,279 3,289 0.97 1.01
Friday 20 3,110 3,292 3,159 0.98 0.98
5 Monday 21 3,022 3,305 3,173 0.95 0.95
Tuesday 22 3,086 3,318 3,202 0.96 1.00
Wednesday 23 3,455 3,330 3,207 1.08 1.06
Thursday 24 3,337 3,343 3,224 1.04 1.01
Friday 25 3,135 3,356 3,289 0.95 0.98
6 Monday 26 3,107 3,369 3,354 0.93 0.95
Tuesday 27 3,412 3,382 3,404 1.00 1.00
Wednesday 28 3,778 3,395 3,507 1.08 1.06
Thursday 29 3,590 3,408 3,572 1.00 1.01
Friday 30 3,647 3,421 3,579 1.02 0.98
7 Monday 31 3,435 3,434 3,516 0.98 0.95
Tuesday 32 3,447 3,447 3,493 0.99 1.00
Wednesday 33 3,461 3,460 3,460 1.00 1.06
Thursday 34 3,473 3,473 1.01
Friday 35 3,485 3,486 0.98
8 Monday 36 3,499 0.95
Tuesday 37 3,512 1.00
Wednesday 38 3,525 1.06
Thursday 39 3,538 1.01
Friday 40 3,551 0.98
0.95
1.00
ADJ Forecast Error Abs Error
Instructions:

3,253 56 56
3,123 81 81
3,039 80 80
2,941 119 119
3,120 -72 72
3,321 439 439 7. Compute the MAD, MSE, and MFE for the forecast errors for week
3,189 -228 228 Insert two columns, one labeled "Error" and the other "Abs Err."
3,103 4 4
3,002 -78 78 Column J, rows 4 - 36:
3,185 -268 268 Error = ACTUAL demand - ADJUSTED FORECASAT
3,390 -337 337
3,254 181 181
3,166 -77 77
3,063 -90 90
3,250 486 486
3,458 -71 71
3,320 -128 128
3,230 -120 120
3,124 -102 102
3,314 -228 228
3,527 -72 72 Column K, rows 4 - 36:
3,386 -49 49 Use Excel function ABS to take the absolute value of the error.
3,293 -158 158
3,185 -78 78
3,379 33 33
3,595 183 183
3,451 139 139
3,357 290 290
3,247 188 188
3,444 3 3
3,664 -203 203
3,517 -44 44
3,420 65 65
3,308
3,508
3,732
3,582
3,484
e forecast errors for weeks 1 through 7.
d the other "Abs Err."

value of the error.

Week Day Day Demand Trendline 5 Prd MA Ratio Seasonal Rel
1 Monday 1 2,999 3,046
Tuesday 2 3,049 3,059
Wednesday 3 3,309 3,072 3,136 1.06 1.06
Thursday 4 3,204 3,084 3,148 1.02 1.01
Friday 5 3,119 3,097 3,148 0.99 0.98
2 Monday 6 3,060 3,110 3,238 0.94 0.95
Tuesday 7 3,048 3,123 3,190 0.96 1.00
Wednesday 8 3,760 3,136 3,187 1.18 1.06
Thursday 9 2,961 3,149 3,160 0.94 1.01
Friday 10 3,107 3,162 3,134 0.99 0.98
3 Monday 11 2,924 3,175 2,992 0.98 0.95
Tuesday 12 2,917 3,188 3,087 0.94 1.00
Wednesday 13 3,053 3,201 3,084 0.99 1.06
Thursday 14 3,435 3,214 3,093 1.11 1.01
Friday 15 3,089 3,227 3,257 0.95 0.98
4 Monday 16 2,973 3,240 3,324 0.89 0.95
Tuesday 17 3,736 3,253 3,275 1.14 1.00
Wednesday 18 3,387 3,266 3,280 1.03 1.06
Thursday 19 3,192 3,279 3,289 0.97 1.01
Friday 20 3,110 3,292 3,159 0.98 0.98
5 Monday 21 3,022 3,305 3,173 0.95 0.95
Tuesday 22 3,086 3,318 3,202 0.96 1.00
Wednesday 23 3,455 3,330 3,207 1.08 1.06
Thursday 24 3,337 3,343 3,224 1.04 1.01
Friday 25 3,135 3,356 3,289 0.95 0.98
6 Monday 26 3,107 3,369 3,354 0.93 0.95
Tuesday 27 3,412 3,382 3,404 1.00 1.00
Wednesday 28 3,778 3,395 3,507 1.08 1.06
Thursday 29 3,590 3,408 3,572 1.00 1.01
Friday 30 3,647 3,421 3,579 1.02 0.98
7 Monday 31 3,435 3,434 3,516 0.98 0.95
Tuesday 32 3,447 3,447 3,493 0.99 1.00
Wednesday 33 3,461 3,460 3,460 1.00 1.06
Thursday 34 3,473 3,473 1.01
Friday 35 3,485 3,486 0.98
8 Monday 36 3,499 0.95
Tuesday 37 3,512 1.00
Wednesday 38 3,525 1.06
Thursday 39 3,538 1.01
Friday 40 3,551 0.98
0.95
1.00
ADJ Forecast Error Abs Error
Instructions:

3,253 56 56
3,123 81 81
3,039 80 80
2,941 119 119
3,120 -72 72
3,321 439 439 7. Compute the MAD, MSE, and MFE for the forecast errors for week
3,189 -228 228 Use Excel function COUNT to count the number of error terms:
3,103 4 4 Number of Error Terms = 33
3,002 -78 78
3,185 -268 268 Use Excel function AVERAGE to compute the average of errors:
3,390 -337 337 MFE = mean forecast error = -2
3,254 181 181
3,166 -77 77 Use Excel function AVERAGE to compute the average of absolute e
3,063 -90 90 MAD = mean absolute deviation = 144
3,250 486 486
3,458 -71 71 Use Excel function SUMSQ to compute the sum of squared errors;
3,320 -128 128 MSE = mean squared error = 34760.64
3,230 -120 120
3,124 -102 102
3,314 -228 228
3,527 -72 72
3,386 -49 49
3,293 -158 158
3,185 -78 78
3,379 33 33
3,595 183 183
3,451 139 139
3,357 290 290
3,247 188 188
3,444 3 3
3,664 -203 203
3,517 -44 44
3,420 65 65
3,308
3,508
3,732
3,582
3,484
e forecast errors for weeks 1 through 7.
mber of error terms:

he average of errors:

he average of absolute errors:

sum of squared errors; then divide by (no. of error terms -1):