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March 21, 2011 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
The powder keg that receives little attention is Bahrain (see more below) where
the government has declared a state of emergency after Saudi Arabia sent in
troops to quash the Shiite protestors, who are also either of Iranian descent or
Iranian supporters. Any tensions affecting the Saudi regime would have even
more dramatic implications for the oil price seeing as the country is by far the
world’s largest crude exporter. It will be interesting to see how excited the U.S.
Administration will be over the prospect of spreading democracy to that part of
the world.
The Nikkei may well be the
The Japanese yen is extending its losses — now at Y81 after testing an most inexpensive market in
unprecedented high Y76.25 on March 17 — and as such is removing the noose the world and at book value
there would seem to be little
from the neck of the country’s large-cap exporters. The Nikkei may well be the
downside from here if any
most inexpensive market in the world and at book value there would seem to be
little downside from here if any — certainly after a collapse last week on par with
the October 1987 meltdown — we have a market priced in already for several
quarters of negative economic growth. But if Bob Farrell’s Rule 1 on mean
reversion comes into play, then coming back into line with the performance of
the global market from here would suggest 20% upside to Japanese equities.
And if there is a clear winner from all this mess (outside of the Prius), it is
liquefied natural gas because Japan was already the world’s top importer and
this status will accelerate and be a key driver of pricing as the country searches
for a substitute for a damaged nuclear grid.
Markets are responding to all the news over the weekend, which does appear to
be constructive. Japan is making headway on its nuclear fight with radiation
levels down and power being restored to parts of the Fukushima Daiichi plant.
And there are early signs of some auto production (Nissan in particular) being
brought back on line. To repeat, the air strikes by the allies over the weekend,
which have decimated Libyan military targets, are reinforcing the positive tone of
the markets. Be that as it may, investors should not take their eye off the ball
because there is very likely going to be lingering problems that could well affect
the global economy and the markets from radiation fears and particularly the
contaminating impact on food supply for the world’s third largest economy. This
can only exacerbate the accelerating inflation in global food prices. Moreover,
we were already hearing reports of stresses being placed on the Japanese
banking system (as an example, Mizuho Financial has been forced to shut down
all of its 38,000 ATMs due to the earthquake). While the news in Libya is
constructive, again we have to reiterate that the real hot spot is what is
happening in Bahrain.
In the past four days, commodity prices have bounced back more than 5%, and In the past four days,
the gains have been broadly based. Some of this is related to farm products on commodity prices have
U.S. weather conditions and rumoured corn buying in China. Some of it is related bounced back more than 5%,
to the rebuilding needs in Japan down the road (legitimate question of where and the gains have been
exactly the rebuilding takes place considering that there will be contamination broadly based
concerns in the affected areas). Security of supply and the realization that
having inventory on hand by global businesses should also help underpin
demand for raw material in general. Of course there is likely to be an ongoing
Page 2 of 24
March 21, 2011 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
large geopolitical risk premium in the oil price (crude is up 2% so far today with
WTI at $103/bbl and up 13% YTD), which is great news for energy companies
and the drillers but the impact on profit margins for the overall corporate sector
is definitely a cloud and a hurdle for still-optimistic earnings projections for the
balance of the year. After nearly two years of raised guidance, analyst EPS
upgrades and earnings misses to the high side, look for a reversal starting as
early as the coming quarter. It won’t be long before we hear consumer
discretionary companies lamenting the fact that gasoline prices have soared
40% over the past year.
What we know with certainty is that we are in a period, yet again, like last year,
of heightened market volatility. The Dow has seen eight 100+ point moves in the
past eighteen sessions; this compares with just two in the prior eighteen trading
days. The case for relative-value trades — hedge funds that truly hedge and
focus on capital preservation while simultaneously delivering solid risk-adjusted
returns — is very strong in view of the current and prospective period of
heightened market turbulence.
Precious metals are firming today as well with gold making new highs, breaking
fractionally above the prior peak posted on March 2nd. There seems to be a new
buyer in town — Iran (see page 17 of the today’s FT).
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
09 10
Source: Wall Street Journal /Haver Analytics
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
Page 3 of 24
March 21, 2011 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
CHART 2: HIGHER FOOD & FUEL PRICES ARE DEPRESSING REAL WAGE
GROWTH
United States: Real Average Weekly Earnings for Prod & Nonsupervisory Workers
(six-month percent change annualized)
12
-4
04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
But the intermediate trend lines have been broken, portfolio managers have
little cash to put to work, and according to a ML-BAC survey, heading into March,
we had a net 67% of global portfolio managers overweight equities against their
normal position. Plus, the world is still a very uncertain place. Beyond Japan, we
have the ongoing debt turmoil in Europe, we have Yemen plunging deeper into
crisis, the Bahrain government moving forcefully against the Shiite
demonstrators, which undoubtedly has caught Iran’s eye, and, of course, the
policy tightening by India and China, which are destined to remove considerable
liquidity from the financial system and dampen growth. GDP growth forecasts
are now coming down after four months of increases and equity analyst EPS
upgrade-downgrade ratio fell in February for the first time since last September
(1.28x in February from 1.38x in January). The Conference Board’s coincident-to-
lagging index has stalled out and we see that the U.S. ECRI weekly leading index
dipped 0.4% in the March 11th week, the second weekly decline in the past
three weeks.
Page 4 of 24
March 21, 2011 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
In another sign that the market complexion has completely changed, the VIX
index also jumped 22% last week. Despite escalating growth risks, the fact that
Brent crude jumped to above $115 a barrel tells you something about where the
Despite escalating growth
potential lies for oil ... and there would seem to be more upside, just based on risks, the fact that Brent crude
geopolitical risks alone. jumped to above $115 a barrel
tells you something about
A LONG CONCERN LIST
where the potential lies for oil
There are still too many unknowns with regard to the nuclear fallout in Japan. ... and there would seem to be
You read page A8 of the Sunday NYT (Japan Finds Contaminated Food Up to 90 more upside, just based on
Miles From Nuclear Sites) and Worries That Even the Perception of geopolitical risks alone
Contamination Could Taint Food Products and you can see why the effects of
this catastrophe are so far-reaching. The weekend WSJ reported that “miniscule
quantities” of radiation from the Japanese nuclear disaster were detected at a
monitoring station in Sacramento ― people who think this is going to just blow
over are clueless.
Moreover, let’s not forget about all the geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Just
because these developments have moved to page 6 (of the weekend WSJ, for
example), like Bahrain Razes Key Monument, Saudi King Unveils Perks Amid
Unrest and Egypt Reformers Wary Before Vote, does not mean they are
unimportant insofar as what they imply for: (i) the oil price, and (ii) equity risk
premia. The tensions in Bahrain are escalating and likely being fuelled at least in
part by Iran, which would like nothing more than for the turmoil to trigger
instability in Saudi Arabia. A Shiite-led government in Bahrain would be an
unmitigated disaster for the United States (which has a naval base there) and
would most likely send the oil price north of $150 a barrel. Have a look at A
Mideast Triangle on the front page of the Sunday NYT Week in Review section.
ECONOMIC FALLOUT
There is no doubt that global supply chains in the tech sector and in the auto
industry will be affected by the nuclear catastrophe ― see Stress Tests For the
Global Supply Chain on the front page of the Sunday NYT business section ― as
well the article titled A Crisis That Markets Can’t Grasp (this is every bit as much
a Black Swan event as Lehman was). GM has already said it will stop some work
at two European facilities and is considering output cuts in Korea. Honda also
said it will suspend vehicle production as it awaits its suppliers. According to the
WSJ, 30% of its suppliers for its four- and two-wheeled vehicles in the affected
area will be ceasing production indefinitely. Even stock market stalwarts like
Caterpillar said late last week that disruptions to its Japanese supply chain
would exert a dampening influence on its assembly plants elsewhere.
Page 5 of 24
March 21, 2011 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
But for political reasons (see what is happening in California right now, plus
officials in both India and China are reassessing plans for any new nuclear
power plants; Germany is temporarily shuttering seven facilities that went on- So at least on a near-term
line before 1980), one could certainly build a view that emotions will run strong
basis, one would expect to see
the “nuclear renaissance” fade
on this file. So at least on a near-term basis, one would expect to see the
as an investment theme —
“nuclear renaissance” fade as an investment theme. Natural gas and coal prices
natural gas and coal prices are
are the obvious beneficiaries.
the obvious beneficiaries
The commodity complex has come back strong ― much more so than equities.
Most estimates we have seen indicate that the rebuilding of Japan’s damaged
infrastructure will come to nearly $200 billion (far exceeding Kobe) or over 3% of
GDP, which means that in 2012 we can expect to see a growth boom but from a
more depressed level of economic activity. That is going to require a lot of raw
materials, including copper, steel, zinc, nickel and lead. Gold will remain a safe
haven and will benefit from a further move by real short-term U.S. interest rates
into negative terrain ― we have identified a near-50% historical inverse
correlation between the real Fed funds rate and the gold price. News of sharply
higher Chinese imports is lending a bid to the agriculture complex, especially
corn (rebounding more than 10% on Thursday and Friday).
Even Cisco is finding religion ― or maybe the limits to its future growth. The
company announced that it will begin to pay out a quarterly dividend of six cents
a share (the company has $40 billion in cash and liquid assets on its balance
sheet), following the trail in the tech space blazed by the likes of Microsoft and
Oracle.
REVERSAL OF FORTUNE
If you have been invested in high-yield bonds for the past two years, then
congratulations are in order.
The sector generated a net positive return of 58% in 2009, 15% in 2010 and
even with the recent giveback, over 3% so far in 2011.
Page 6 of 24
March 21, 2011 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
But the complexion of the junk bond market has begun to shift, and this shift
actually started before the flare-ups in the Middle East and North Africa, let
alone the disaster in Japan. In recent months and weeks, the return of ‘cov-lite’
and ‘PIK toggle’ loans was an early sign that a bit too much giddiness was re-
entering this space. And prior to last week, new issue activity was running amok
― up 33% from a year ago. The demand was certainly there with investors
ploughing over $10 billion into high-yield funds year-to-date which was set to
eclipse ― shatter, more like it ― the huge $31.5 billion net inflow in 2010.
Moreover, as a sign that investors were getting a tad too greedy in their search ―
try stretch ― for yield that the share of new issuance this year that was being
accounted for by CCC-rated debt was 24%. This compares to 17% in 2010 and
11% in 2009 when the marketplace was far more discerning and selective. But
high-yield spreads, having reached their historical norm of around 500 basis
points, have begun to widen again given all the global turmoil and attendant
growth risks, and the price, at 103 (as per the Citi high-yield index), is very close
to the record high of 105 hit in January 2004.
So the prospect of more price appreciation and spread narrowing now seems
much more limited than at any other time since the credit rally began over two
years ago. The weekend WSJ cites a variety of large fund managers who are now
in the process of cutting their exposures to bonds rated below single-B. Issuers
also see how the landscape has changed and as such we are seeing deals being
pulled and on a week-to-week basis, new supply cratered 75% last week. So
what is a fixed-income investor going to do? Well, they are already voting with
their feet ― a 14-week run of inflows into high-yield corporate bond funds came
to a thundering stop last week as $470 million was redeemed.
EM bonds may not be a bad
A more adequate substitute right now may be in the emerging market bond
place to look ― they offer high
sphere. Let’s keep in mind that emerging market economies have held in very
yields and in many cases have
well, especially considering how export-sensitive they are. But robust domestic stronger balance sheets than
demand growth has helped pick up the slack. So, EM bonds may not be a bad developed countries
place to look ― they offer high yields and in many cases have stronger balance
sheets than developed countries. Hybrids or balanced funds are very
appropriate for the environment we are in currently.
What about municipal bonds ― a pariah just a short three months ago? State
after state is either raising taxes, cutting spending or going after their public
sector unions in order to redress their fiscal mess. In the first two weeks of
January, the sector was turning in a 2.4% net loss and the turnaround since has
been impressive enough that the muni market is now up 0.1% for the year. Build
America Bonds, “pre-refunded bonds” and revenue bonds backed by a non-
cyclical cash stream look quite attractive. See Municipal Bonds: Avoiding the
Next Blowup on page B9 of the weekend WSJ for some ideas of how to secure a
4.8% yield on an AA+ rated piece of paper.
Page 7 of 24
March 21, 2011 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
It looks as though the $25 billion coordinated FX intervention effort has been
successful in arresting the strength in the yen (repatriation concerns were likely
overdone to begin with) and what makes this round durable is that it was
accompanied by a huge round of liquidity infusion by the Bank of Japan. And
keep in mind that Japan’s fiscal year-end is March 31st, historically a period
when companies often bring money home, so once we get through the seasonal
effects, it would seem as though the yen will continue on its new weakening
trend ― a much-needed development to offset the deflationary effects from the
nuclear tragedy.
Page 8 of 24
March 21, 2011 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
0.32
0.28
0.24
0.20
0.16
09 10
Source: Haver Analytics
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
TABLE 1: WHICH SECTORS ARE RUNNING FULL STEAM, WHICH ARE NOT
United States: Industrial Production
Page 9 of 24
March 21, 2011 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
0
90 95 00 05 10
Source: Haver Analytics
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
Ditto for food retailers as prices are up 0.8% MoM and an impressive +7.2% at a
seasonally adjusted annual rate over the past three months but retailers can’t
keep up with PPI food costs as the ratio has collapsed to May 1994 levels.
Page 10 of 24
March 21, 2011 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
1.25
1.20
1.15
1.10
1.05
1.00
90 95 00 05 10
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
3.75
3.00
2.25
1.50
0.75
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
Hotels had decent pricing power through much of 2010, but pricing power here
is down two months in a row and the year-over-year trend is slowing down.
Page 11 of 24
March 21, 2011 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
-5
-10
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
Apparel prices fell 0.9% MoM in February, snuffing out a three-month increase.
Margins must be getting crushed — see the apparel CPI ratio to cotton yarns PPI,
which are now at record lows.
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
06 07 08 09 10
Source: Haver Analytics
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
Footwear CPI was down 0.4% in February and down now for three of past four
months; jewellery was flat in poorest pricing performance since last October.
Page 12 of 24
March 21, 2011 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
-5
-10
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
New auto prices jumped 1% in February, and posted its best month since
October 2009 and ended a four month string of declines. Note that the price
trend is rising; the industrial production data also showed another 4% MoM
increase in February, so volumes have been strong too.
-2
-4
06 07 08 09 10
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
Page 13 of 24
March 21, 2011 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
Auto parts pricing is doing even better than new vehicle pricing.
0
06 07 08 09 10
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
Medical care — goods and services — are disinflating fast, especially hospital
and related services … especially the HMOs.
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
06 07 08 09 10
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
Page 14 of 24
March 21, 2011 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
8.25
7.50
6.75
6.00
5.25
06 07 08 09 10
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
-2
06 07 08 09 10
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
Page 15 of 24
March 21, 2011 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
Book stores saw a price increase of 0.3% MoM and are now up for three months
in a row, and the year-over-year is trend rebounding nicely.
-2
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
Despite FedEx’s announcement, delivery pricing trends are slowing down visibly.
15.0
7.5
0.0
-7.5
-15.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
Shaded areas represent periods U.S. recession
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
Page 16 of 24
March 21, 2011 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
The pricing trends for sporting goods and pets products/services looking much
better. Just look at the charts below.
-2
-4
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
Shaded areas represent periods U.S. recession
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
10
0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
Shaded areas represent periods U.S. recession
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
Page 17 of 24
March 21, 2011 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
CPI for sundries (proxy for drug store pricing power) also looking a tad better.
-1
-2
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
Shaded areas represent periods U.S. recession
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
-2
-4
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
Shaded areas represent periods U.S. recession
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
Page 18 of 24
March 21, 2011 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
From the U.S. PPI report, the sectors below have the most compelling pricing
trends.
Food producers
CHART 21: FOOD PRODUCERS SEEING GREAT PRICING POWER
United States: PPI: Finished Consumer Foods
(year-over-year percent change)
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
0.0
-2.5
-5.0
08 09 10
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
Construction machinery
CHART 22: STRONG PRICING TREND IN THE CONSTRUCTION
MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT SECTOR
United States: PPI: Construction Machinery and Equipment
(year-over-year percent change)
6
-2
08 09 10
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
Page 19 of 24
March 21, 2011 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
Agriculture equipment
CHART 23: THE PRICING TREND FOR AG EQUIPMENT
United States: PPI: Agricultural Machinery & Equipment
(year-over-year percent change)
7
1
08 09 10
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
2.25
1.50
0.75
0.00
-0.75
08 09 10
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
Page 20 of 24
March 21, 2011 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
Jewellery manufacturers
CHART 25: JEWELLERS HAVE PRICING POWER
United States: PPI: Jewellery
(year-over-year percent change)
20
16
12
-4
08 09 10
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
Tobacco producers
CHART 26: PPI FOR TOBACCO PRODUCTS RUNNING AT A 7.5% RATE
United States: PPI: Tobacco Products
(year-over-year percent change)
10
0
08 09 10
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
Page 21 of 24
March 21, 2011 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
0.0
-2.5
08 09 10
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
Tires/tubing
CHART 28: GOOD PRICING POWER FOR TIRES
United States: PPI: Tires, Tubes, Treads and Others
(year-over-year percent change)
16
12
-4
08 09 10
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
Page 22 of 24
March 21, 2011 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
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Page 23 of 24
March 21, 2011 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
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