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A Closer Look at Trends in

Europe & Beyond

Alain Vervaet
CEO, ING Lease Holding

Edinburgh, 1 October 2007


A Closer Look at Trends in
Europe & Beyond
Agenda
World markets in 2006
Leasing volumes and growth, in Europe
and further a field
Leasing’s contribution to the economy
Market players
Asset types
Conclusion
World Markets in 2006
Canada
CFLA Europe
18.5 bio€ Leaseurope
297.5 bio€
US
of which: Japan
ELFA
Equipment JLA
175.2 bio€ Leasing
250.7 bio€ 53.5 bio€
Brazil
ABEL
Australia
7.2 bio€ AELA
17.2 bio€

New leasing volumes; source: Leaseurope 2006 Annual Survey and local leasing associations
New Leasing Volumes in Europe
Total New Leasing Volumes Reported
297.5
in Leaseurope Annual Surveys bio€
300

250
CAGR: 10.9%

200
Billions of €

150
85.5
bio€
100

50

0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
HP explicitly included from 2003, automotive long term rental members figures included (when available) in 2006
New Leasing Volumes in Europe
Equipment & Real Estate
300,000

CAGR: 10.63%
250,000

200,000 CAGR: 11.01%


Billions of €

150,000

100,000

50,000 RE 46.8 bio€


New Volumes
Equip 250.7 bio€ 2006
0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Equipment Real Estate


New Leasing Volumes in Europe
Equipment & Real Estate
Low:
300,000
02
80.3%
250,000 High:
97
200,000 86.7% Average
AverageShare
Share
of of
Equip
RE
Billions of €

150,000
83.84%
83.84%
100,000

50,000

0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Equipment Real Estate


New Leasing Volumes in Europe
New Leasing Volumes per Cluster in 2006

UK  55.0 bio€
New Leasing Volumes in Europe
New Leasing Volumes per Cluster in 2006

UK  55.0 bio€
Germany  50.4bio€
New Leasing Volumes in Europe
New Leasing Volumes per Cluster in 2006

UK  55.0 bio€
Germany  50.4bio€
Italy  48.1 bio€
New Leasing Volumes in Europe
New Leasing Volumes per Cluster in 2006

UK  55.0 bio€
Germany  50.4bio€
Italy  48.1 bio€

France  36.1 bio€


New Leasing Volumes in Europe
New Leasing Volumes per Cluster in 2006

UK  55.0 bio€
Germany  50.4bio€
Italy  48.1 bio€

France  36.1 bio€


CEE  33.4 bio€
New Leasing Volumes in Europe
New Leasing Volumes per Cluster in 2006

UK  55.0 bio€
Germany  50.4bio€
Italy  48.1 bio€

France  36.1 bio€


CEE  33.4 bio€
Benelux, CH, AT  28.8 bio€
New Leasing Volumes in Europe
New Leasing Volumes per Cluster in 2006

UK  55.0 bio€
Germany  50.4bio€
Italy  48.1 bio€

France  36.1 bio€


CEE  33.4 bio€
Benelux, CH, AT  28.8 bio€
Med  28.8 bio€
New Leasing Volumes in Europe
New Leasing Volumes per Cluster in 2006

UK  55.0 bio€
Germany  50.4bio€
Italy  48.1 bio€

France  36.1 bio€


CEE  33.4 bio€
Benelux, CH, AT  28.8 bio€
Med  28.8 bio€
Nordic  18.1 bio€
Growth in Europe
Total New Volumes: Annual Growth Rates
18%
16.50%

16% 15.24%

13.47%
14% 12.84%
11.69% 11.62%
12%
10.66%

10%
8.35%
CAGR: 10.9% 7.92%
8% 7.23%
6.89%

6%

4%
2.71%

2%
2006:
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Lower RE 2006
growth

Calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting in the previous year


Growth in Europe
New Leasing Volume Growth per Cluster
3,57%
Nordic
38,62%
CEE
6,87%
Benelux, AT & CH
13,61%
Mediterranean
8,94%
Italy

France 4,33%
-2,50%
UK
2,58%
Germany

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

2004/2005 2005/2006
Annual growth rates calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting in the previous year
Growth in Europe
Total Equipment Leasing Growth

30%

25%

20%
15.29%
15%

10% 7.20%

5% 2.49%
CAGR: 11.01%
0%

-5%

-10%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Equipment

Annual growth rates calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting in the previous year
Growth in Europe
Equipment vs Real Estate Leasing Growth
30.04%
30%

25%

20%
CAGR: 10.63%
15%

10%
5.61%
5%

0%

-5% -8.73%

-10%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Equipment Real Estate

Annual growth rates calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting in the previous year
Growth in Europe
Equipment Leasing Growth in
Europe Compared to the US
30%

25%

20%
15.64%
15%

8.37%
10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10% -12.55%

-15%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Europe US
Annual real growth rates, US data source: ELFA
Growth in Europe
Equipment Leasing Growth in Europe
Compared to the US and Japan
30%

25%

20%

15%
9.94%
10%

5%

0%

-5%
-10.02%
-10%

-15%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Europe US Japan
Annual real growth rates, Japan data source: World Leasing Yearbook 2007 & JLA
Growth in Europe
Equipment Leasing Growth in Europe
Compared to the US, Japan & Australia
30%
27.65%
25%

20%

15%

10%

5%
3.61%
0%

-5%
-7.39%
-10%

-15%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Europe US Japan Australia


Annual real growth rates, Australian data source: AELA, includes all types of equipment finance
Contribution to the
European Economy
Leasing Volumes as a % of GDP
3,00%

2,50%

2,00%

1,50%

1,00%

0,50%

0,00%
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Leaseurope average, calculated as new leasing volumes from Leaseurope Annual Surveys divided by GDP from
Eurostat for countries with available data
Contribution to the
European Economy
Leasing Growth Compared to
Investment Growth
Investment growth 05/06

30%
EE
25%

20%
DK
CZ
15% SI
SK
10% SE BE FI NL
UK ES
5% IT
DE FR AT
CH PT
0%
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
-5%
New leasing growth 05/06
Investment = GFCF – investment in private dwellings; source: Eurostat
Contribution to the
European Economy
Leasing Growth Compared to
Investment Growth
Investment growth 05/06

30%

25%
PL
20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70%
-5%
New leasing growth 05/06
Investment = GFCF – investment in private dwellings; source: Eurostat
Contribution to the
European Economy
Leasing Growth Compared to
Investment Growth
Investment growth 05/06

30%
EE
25%

20%
DK
CZ
15% SI
2
SK
R = 0.3015
10% SE BE FI NL
UK ES
5% IT
DE FR AT
CH PT
0%
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
-5%
New leasing growth 05/06
Investment = GFCF – investment in private dwellings; source: Eurostat
Contribution to the
European Economy
CAGR (97-06) for Leasing Compared to Investment
30%

25%

20%
Overall
CAGR: 4.82%
< Overall
CAGR: 8.94%

15%

10%

5%

0%
AT BE CH CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR HU IT NL NO PL PT SE SI SK UK

GFCF New Leasing Vol


Investment = GFCF – investment in private dwellings; source: Eurostat
European Leasing Penetration
Average Leasing Penetration
29%

24%

19.02%
19% 17.25%

14.83% 15.08%

12.50% 13.02%
14% 11.89%

9%

4%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Total PR
Source: Leaseurope data & investment figures from Eurostat; Incl. hp from 2003 & new LT members in 2006
European Leasing Penetration
Average Leasing Penetration
28.43%
29%

24.30%
24%
21.64%
20.23%
19.02%
19% 17.67% 17.35% 17.25%
16.06%
14.83% 15.08%

12.50% 13.02%
14% 11.89%

9%

4%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Total PR Equip
Source: Leaseurope data & investment figures from Eurostat; Incl. hp from 2003 & new LT members in 2006
European Leasing Penetration
Average Leasing Penetration
28.43%
29%

24.30%
24%
21.64%
20.23%
19.02%
19% 17.67% 17.35% 17.25%
16.06%
14.83% 15.08%

12.50% 13.02%
14% 11.89%

9%
6.32% 6.14%
5.62% 5.51%
4.75% 4.87% 4.97%

4%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Total PR Equip RE
Source: Leaseurope data & investment figures from Eurostat; Incl. hp from 2003 & new LT members in 2006
European Leasing Penetration
Country Level Penetration Rates
(2006)

10% – 15%
Leasing Penetration
Country Level Penetration Rates
(2006)

15% – 20%
10% – 15%
Leasing Penetration
Country Level Penetration Rates
(2006)

20% – 25%

15% – 20%
10% – 15%
Leasing Penetration
Country Level Penetration Rates
(2006)

> 25%
20% – 25%

15% – 20%
10% – 15%
Leasing Penetration
Average Leasing Penetration in Europe vs US

39%
33.10%
34% 31.00% 31.00%
28.90% 28.43%
27.60% 27.70%
29%
24.30%
24% 21.64% 27.70%
20.23%
17.67% 17.35%
19% 16.06%

14%

9%

4%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Europe US
Source: ELFA
Leasing Penetration
Average Leasing Penetration in Europe vs Canada

39%

34%
28.43%
29%
24.30%
21.64%
24% 25.90%
20.23% 24.90%
17.67% 17.35%
19% 16.06% 22.90%

14%

9%

4%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Europe US Canada
Source: CFLA
Leasing Penetration
Average Leasing Penetration in Europe vs Australia

41.82%
39% 38.98% 39.32%
38.35% 37.43%
36.41%
34% 33.91%
28.43%
29%
24.30%
21.64%
24%
20.23%
17.67% 17.35%
19% 16.06%

14%

9%

4%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Europe US Canada Australia


Source: AELA
European Market Players
Short Term Evolution in Leasing Company Profile

100% 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 5%

90%
80% 28% 27% 29%
32% 34% 37% 37%
70%

60%
18% 18%
50% 14% 18%
16% 16% 16%
40%

30%
20% 32% 33% 31% 30% 30% 29% 29%
10%

0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Indep Captive Bank Owned Bank


Based on homogenous sample of members reporting in all surveys, measured in terms of number of firms
European Market Players
Short Term Evolution in Leasing Company Profile

100% 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 5%

90%
80% 28% 27% 29%
32% 34% 37% 37%
70%

60%
18% 18%
50% 14% 18%
16% 16% 16%
40%

30%
20% 32% 33% 31% 30% 30% 29% 29%
10%

0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Indep Captive Bank Owned Bank


Based on homogenous sample of members reporting in all surveys, measured in terms of number of firms
European Market Players
Short Term Evolution in Leasing Company Profile

100% 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 5%

90%
80% 28% 27% 29%
32% 34% 37% 37%
70%

60%
18% 18%
50% 14% 18%
2000: 16% 16% 16%
40%
2006:
Bank Related: 33% Bank Related: 42%
30%
20% Captive:
32% 18%
33% 31% 30% 30% Captive: 16%
29% 29%
10% Independent: 32% Independent: 28%
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Indep Captive Bank Owned Bank


Based on homogenous sample of members reporting in all surveys, measured in terms of number of firms
European Market Players
Concentration of European Leasing Companies
50
# of firms

40

30

20

10

0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
% of tot market
2001 Ref Line
European Market Players
Concentration of European Leasing Companies
50
# of firms

40

30

20

10

0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

2001 2003
% of tot market
European Market Players
Concentration of European Leasing Companies
50
# of firms

40

30

20

10

0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

2001 2003 2005 % of tot market


European Market Players
Concentration of European Leasing Companies
50
# of firms

40

30

20

10

0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

2001 2003 2005 2006 % of tot market


Types of Asset on Lease
New Leasing Volumes per Asset Category (2006)
Non
Cars Auto
Equip
101.7 bil€
101.1 bil€
34%
34%

50% 50%

CVs RE
47.9 bil€ 46.8 bil€
16% 16%

Source: Leaseurope 2006 Annual Survey. Includes data for Leaseurope’s new automotive long term rental
members (when available)
Equipment Leasing
New Equipment Leasing Volumes per Asset
Category (2006)
5%
6%
21%

Total
Equipment
Volume:
8%
250.7 bil€
41%

19%

Computers & Business Machines Machinery & Industrial Equip


Road Transport Vehicles Ships, Rail, Plane, etc
Passenger Cars Other
Equipment Leasing
Category
Asset Share 06
Growth 05/06
20%
5%
6%
21%

10%

0%
8%

41%

19%

Computers & Business Machines Machinery & Industrial Equip


Road Transport Vehicles Ships, Rail, Plane, etc
Passenger Cars Other
Growth calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting in the previous year
Equipment Leasing
Asset Share 06 Category Growth 05/06
16.25
5% 20%
6% Machinery & Industrial Equip
21%

10%

8.78
Ships, Rail, Computers &
8% Plane, etc Business
0% Machines 3.23
Passenger
Cars
41% 2.73

Road
17.54
19% Transport
Vehicles

Computers & Business Machines Machinery & Industrial Equip


Road Transport Vehicles Ships, Rail, Plane, etc
Passenger Cars Other
Equipment Leasing
Category Growth 05/06 Category Growth 04/05

16.25 20%
20%
Machinery & Industrial Equip

Ships, Rail, Machinery & Industrial Equip


10%
23.34 Plane, etc 10%
6.97
8.78 Computers &
Business Computers &
Ships, Rail,
Plane, etc
Machines 3.23 Business
0% Machines 3.10
0%

Passenger
Cars 17.54
2.73 Road Passenger
Transport Cars
Vehicles 9.02
18.38
Road
Transport
Vehicles

Growth calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting in the previous year
Equipment Leasing
Cluster Specialisation (2006)
Germany UK France Italy
9% 5% 12% 1%
15% 11%
3% 10%
24%
11%
9%
38% 19%
48%
13%
11%
15%
49%
49% 18%
24% 4%

Mediterranean Benelux, AT & CH CEE Nordic


5% 4% 4% 8%
4% 14% 4%
13% 2% 19%
28% 25%
9%

33% 2% 13%
3% 34%
16%
30%
53%
21%
31% 23%

Passenger Cars Machinery & Industrial Equip Other Types of Equip


Road Transport Vehicles Computers & Business Machines Ships, Plane, Rail, etc
Equipment Leasing
Short Term Evolution of Client Categories

100%
Other client categories
90% 16% 15% 16%
16%
80% 4% 5% 5% Consumers
4%
70%
Public Sector
60%
44% 44% 45%
50% 47% Services
40% Industry &
30% Construction
20% 29% 27% 27%
Agriculture, Forestry,
22%
10% Fishing
0%
2006 2005 2004 2003
Real Estate Leasing
Cluster Specialisation (2006)
Germany UK France Italy

1% 14%
15%

49% 51%

85% 86%
99%

Mediterranean Benelux, AT & CH CEE Nordic


6% 8% 1%
21%

79%
94%
92% 99%

Equipment Real Estate


Real Estate Leasing
Type of Building Leased in 2006
28%
28%
Retail
Industrial Outlets
Buildings
Total Real
Estate
Volume:
46.8 bil€
14%
Other
Buildings 26%
2% 7% Office
Buildings
Utilities Hotels &
Leisure
Focus on Vehicles
In 2006, new Leaseurope membership base brings
additional weight in the automotive sector

Vehicles financed/purchased

All
# (mil) 6,2 0,9 0,7 7,7
€ (bil) 115,4 21,4 27,9 164,7

Portfolio/fleet

All
# (mil) 12,3 2,1 1,5 15,9
€ (bil) 256,3 40,5 60,2 357,0
Based on figures reported in the 2006 Annual Survey & Leaseurope estimates; includes figures from short term
rental associations except for fleet value (€)
Passenger Cars
Leaseurope PCs as % of New Registrations
70%

60%
Leaseurope
50%
Average:
35.5%
40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
AT BE CH CZ DE DK ES FI FR GR HU IT LU NL NO PL PT SE SI SK UK
New cars bought or financed (used cars excluded, all product types together) compared to new PC registrations
taken from ACEA
Passenger Cars
Leaseurope PC Fleet as % of Country Fleet
18%

16%
Leaseurope
14%
Average:
12%
6.5%
10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%
AT BE CY CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR GR HU IT LT LU LV NL PL PT SL SK UK
Leaseurope fleet ’06 as share of total fleet (’05) taken from EC’s “EU Energy & Transport in Figures “
A Closer Look at Trends in
Europe & Beyond

Alain Vervaet
CEO, ING Lease Holding

Edinburgh, 1 October 2007

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