SEB Commodities Monthly

31 MAY 2011
Bullish market disguised in bearish
corrections
 Commodities Monthly

Bullish market disguised in bearish corrections

GENERAL 0-3 M
4-6 M  7-12 M  UBS Bloomberg CMCI Sector Indices
• We expect sideways and volatile commodity markets in the (price indices, weekly closing, January 2010 = 100)
months ahead as growth momentum and leading indicators 160
are likely to weaken further and risk appetite is tempered by Industrial Metals
150 Precious Metals
European sovereign debt, the end of QE2 and Chinese Energy
slowdown worries 140 Agriculture
• We recommend using the volatility bursts to build long 130
commodity positions as the global recovery remains on track
120
with growing demand and strained supply
ENERGY 0-3 M
4-6 M  7-12 M  110

• Investors shed some speculative length during the May 100

correction but are still substantially long and further corrective
90
sell-offs are therefore likely on periods of general risk aversion
• However geopolitical risk is high (MENA), with escalations in 80

nov-10
feb-10

feb-11
jan-10

mar-10
apr-10
maj-10
jun-10
jul-10
aug-10
sep-10
okt-10

dec-10
jan-11

mar-11
apr-11
maj-11
Yemen and Syria, and fundamentals remain strong
• The shortage of sweet crude oil due to the Libyan outage is
going to test the market over the coming months as refineries
in the Atlantic basin ramp up production
INDUSTRIAL METALS 0-3 M  4-6 M  7-12 M
Sector performance last month
• The industrial metal sector remains highly vulnerable to (MSCI World, UBS Bloomberg CMCI price indices)
indications of China moving towards a hard landing but is also 14
being impacted by OECD slowdown worries 12 YTD (%) M/M (%)
10
• Sideways and volatile price action in the months ahead will 8
create attractive buying opportunities 6
• We recommend buying copper on dips into the $8500-9000/t 4
2
range as Chinese destocking eventually comes to an end 0
• We recommend buying aluminium on dips below $2500/t as -2
demand recovery and energy prices will offer support -4
-6
PRECIOUS METALS 0-3 M
4-6 M  7-12 M  -8

Agriculture
Industrial

•
Equities

Commodities

Energy

Precious
The gold market rests on solid support mainly from a high
metals

metals
level of uncertainty and fear regarding the European sovereign
debt situation in general and the Greek in particular
• A widespread negative real interest rate environment, central
bank buying and growing Asian demand all remain supportive
• However, we see a non negligible risk that dollar strength and
falling Chinese inflation at least temporarily could put an end
Winners & Losers last month
(%)
to the gold rally during the second half of 2011
15
AGRICULTURE 0-3 M 4-6 M  7-12 M 
• Short to medium term fundamentals in the agricultural sector 10

have strengthened significantly, e.g. on widespread drought 5

hitting winter crops in several regions. 0
• Consequently, we upgrade our short term view from neutral to -5
mildly bullish since the upside is likely to be limited by demand
-10
destruction.
• Due to low inventory levels, at least for corn and soybeans, -15
and relatively easy substitution we expect the grain -20
movements to be fairly synchronized.
-25
•
Silver

Coffe (Ar.)
Tin

Aluminium

Platinum
Palladium
Cotton

Gasoline

Gold
Lead

Corn
Zinc

The long term view remains bearish as the probability o

WTI
Cocoa (US)

Power
Sugar

CO2 (EUA)
Copper

Power
Nat. gas

Soybeans
Brent
Nickel

Heat. oil

Steel

Wheat

further adverse weather falls with the fading La Niña cycle

Arrows indicate the expected price action during the period in question.
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

COMMODITIES MONTHLY WILL NOW TAKE A SUMMER

BREAK UNTIL SEPTEMBER

2
Commodities Monthly

General
UBS Bloomberg CMCI
Over the next few months, we expect a volatile and (price index, weekly closing)
range-bound commodity market to provide 1800
attractive buying opportunities. The global recovery 1700
continues, a view supported by the G8 statement at 1600
the end of May confirming that “the global economy 1500
1400
is in general strengthening and becoming more self-
1300
sustained”. However, despite continuing growth 1200
and the sustained recovery, growth momentum, 1100
PMIs and consequently risk appetite are flagging. 1000
Markets remain unsure whether to expect a hard or 900
800
soft landing in China given its current monetary
700
policies to dampen inflation and excessive growth. 600
Further, EU peripheral debt concerns are rising, 500
investors are wary as the end of US QE2 approaches 400
and the inventory cycle is creating a soft-patch in IP 300

2002

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2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011
growth momentum. Despite decreasing during the
May commodity correction, current speculative
positions remain high implying the possibility of
further volatile corrective action. JPM global manufacturing
manufacturing PMI
(monthly, PMIs >50 expansive)
After reaching record highs at the beginning of April, 65
commodities corrected strongly at the start of May. At
the height of the sell-off, Bloomberg’s broad CMCI 60
commodity index closed down 7.3% compared to the
55
end of April, and up to 9.2% lower relative to its April
high. The correction occurred against the background of
50
record high speculative positions in many commodities
and low volatility levels and was triggered by an ECB 45
statement declaring that even if rate hikes had started
this did not imply that they would rise rapidly. This 40
indication rapidly reversed USD depreciation, sending
the USD index as much as 4.35% higher in May 35

compared to its April close. The ECB’s comments came

30
amid growing concerns regarding the European
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011
peripheral debt situation including rapidly rising bond
yields especially in Greece and Ireland which also lent
support to the USD and reduced risk appetite generally.
OECD composite leading indicators
(monthly, 100 corresponds to long term trend in industrial production)
At the end of May, the realization that China intended to
buy Eurozone bailout bonds slightly eased market 105
104
concerns surrounding the Greek debt crisis. Also, 103
markets regarded as positive the fact that European 102
implementation of Basel III will be somewhat easier on 101
100
European banks than had been feared, and were 99
impressed by the G8’s reassuring statement on the 98
97
global economy. As a result commodities have partly China
96
recovered previous losses while USD depreciation has Eurozone
95
OECD
resumed. Nevertheless, gold stands only 1% off its all- 94
USA
93
time high, the Swiss franc is record strong against both 92
Reference
the USD and euro, while yields on 10-year US and 91
German government bonds have declined to around 3%. 90
89
In other words, risk aversion and recovery concerns still 88
stalk the markets.
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

If we neutralize the USD effects in the movements of Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
CMCI commodity index by dividing it by the USD index
we get that it is marginally down year to date.

3
Commodities Monthly

Crude oil
Crude oil price
The May sell-off in crude oil reduced speculative (NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)
positions sharply though prices fell much less. This 150
partly reflects reduced investor risk appetite due to 140
NYMEXWTI
increased uncertainty concerning the upcoming end 130
ICE Brent
of QE2, at the same time as physical market 120
participants find current prices attractive based on 110
100
strong fundamentals. In our opinion, the worst of
90
the technical sell-off is over leaving us bullish for 80
Q2-11 with an average price forecast of $120/b. We 70
also regard risk as biased to the upside as refineries 60
ramp up production ahead of the start of the US 50
driving season, exacerbating the effect of the sweet 40
crude shortage caused by events in Libya. Our price 30
20
outlook for H2-11 is relatively conservative and
10
includes a projected oil price of $105/b. Firstly, we

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011
expect oil demand to ease following this summer’s
driving and flying season. Secondly, it remains too
early to assess the demand destruction effect of
current high oil prices. Thirdly, we should have a US crude oil inventories
clearer idea by the end of the summer when at least (DOE, mb, weekly data)
some Libyan oil production will be back on-line 380
despite uncertain developments going forward. Still,
we regard price risk as lying above $105/b with the 370

MENA situation the pivotal factor. A deteriorating

360
global macroeconomic situation, including a
Chinese hard landing, radical European peripheral 350
debt eruption or stumbling US recovery, taken
together with an improved MENA situation would 340
clearly depress the Brent crude oil price below
$105/b although this is not our main scenario. 330 2006-2010 avg.
2010
In Libya positions remain locked, with significant 320 2011
volumes of oil unlikely to be back on the market before
310
the end of the year whatever the scenario. Elsewhere in
j f m a m j j a s o n d
the region, Yemen’s president Saleh continues to avoid
responding to peace initiatives from the Gulf Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
Cooperation Council, bringing his country to the verge of
civil war, and threatening to destabilize the MENA region Current global crude oil demand estimates
further. In Syria protests continue despite indiscriminate
killing by security forces, fanning further discontent. 2010 Revision 2011 Revision
(mb/d) (kb/d) (mb/d) (kb/d)
In China little rain has fallen resulting in low hydro IEA 87.9 +/-0 89.2 -200
reserves which have forced authorities to ration EIA 86.68 +/-0 88.08 -120
OPEC 86.67 +120 88.08 +140
electricity. In addition, due to the high cost of coal and
regulated power prices producers with coal fired power
plants have become reluctant to produce. At the same
time, authorities are disinclined to raise power prices,
mirroring inflation concerns. We expect consumers to
switch to diesel-generated sources instead.

US demand remains surprisingly resilient despite current

high prices. Implied demand for both gasoline and
distillates is consistent with normal seasonality. The
definitive test of demand will take place over the summer
driving season lasting from Memorial Day until Labour
Day.

4
Commodities Monthly

Energy
WTI futures curve Brent futures curve
(NYMEX, $/b) (ICE, $/b)
115 126
114 11-03-31 125
124 11-03-31
113 11-04-28 123 11-04-28
112 11-05-27 122
121 11-05-27
111 120
110 119
118
109 117
108 116
115
107 114
106 113
105 112
111
104 110
103 109
108
102 107
101 106
105
100 104
99 103

jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
apr-12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-14
apr-14
jul-14
okt-14
jan-15
apr-15
jul-15
jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
apr-12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-14
apr-14
jul-14
okt-14
jan-15
apr-15
jul-15
Gasoline and heating oil prices Gasoline and distillate inventories
(NYMEX, ¢/gal, front month, weekly closing) (DOE, mb, weekly data)
450 250
NYMEXGasoline 240
400 NYMEXHeating oil 230
220
350
210
300 200
190 Gasoline 2006-2010 avg.
250 Gasoline 2011
180
170 Distillate fuel oil 2006-2010 avg.
200 Distillate fuel oil 2011
160
150 150
140
100 130
120
50
110
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

j f m a m j j a s o n d

US natural gas prices US natural

natural gas futures curve
(NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing) (NYMEX, $/MMBtu)
15 7,25
14 7,00 11-03-31
13 6,75 11-04-28
12 11-05-27
6,50
11
6,25
10
6,00
9
8 5,75
7 5,50
6 5,25
5 5,00
4 4,75
3 4,50
2
4,25
1
feb-12

feb-13

feb-14

feb-15

feb-16

feb-17
jun-11
okt-11

jun-12
okt-12

jun-13
okt-13

jun-14
okt-14

jun-15
okt-15

jun-16
okt-16

jun-17
okt-17
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2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

5
Commodities Monthly

Nordic power
Nordic power price
At the end of May, a decision regarding the future of (Nord Pool, €/MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)
nuclear power in German finally came. The seven plants 80
taken offline in the three month moratorium on reactor 75
lifetime extensions after the Japanese incident in March 70
will be permanently close. The rest of the reactors will go 65
offline in 2021. There is one possible exception however, 60
if the transition to renewable energy does not go as 55
quickly as planned three of the plants will be allowed to 50
continue operating until 2022. Even though the market 45
had priced in most of this after a month of speculations
40
and rumours, it traded up rapidly during the last days of
35
May.
30
25
In May, the Nordic power market was dominated by very
20
wet weather that pushed prices lower and finally

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011
improved the much strained hydro-balance somewhat.
The deficit shrunk from -35 to -24 TWh m/m, which is an
unusually large move but still small relative to the total
deficit. Continental power price
(EEX, €/MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)
Despite the wet weather, spot prices in May delivered 95
very high and stable averaging at EUR 54.49/MWh, up 90
85
EUR 0.65/MWh compared to April. That is yet again a
80
clear sign that producers are in good control and that the 75
system can still absorb huge volumes of water. The 70
Swedish spot traded largely in line with the system price. 65
60
In Germany spot prices picked up much more during May
55
and delivered EUR 2.34/MWh above the Nordic system 50
price at EUR 56.83/MWh, which is the largest premium 45
since October 2009. 40
35
30
In spite of the German decision, all parts of the Nordic
25
forward curve retreated in May. Q3-11 lost EUR 20
1.30/MWh and closed at around EUR 55.00/MWh while
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011
YR-12 lost EUR 0.40/MWh and closed at around EUR
51.95/MWh. The German curve was stable during most
of the month but gained a lot on the nuclear decision. As
EUA price
a result of this the spread between Nordic and Germany
(ECX ICE, €/t, Dec. 11, weekly closing)
YR-12 widened EUR 1.75/MWh m/m to around EUR
35
8.70/MWh.

Looking ahead, we are still comfortable in our belief 30

that Nordic power prices will remain strong. Despite

wet weather and the resulting improvement in the 25

hydro-balance, support from stable spot prices, the

German nuclear shutdown and firm fuel prices will 20
offer good support. A large German vs. Nordic YR-12
premium, which signals export, as well as a large 15
hydro deficit are very bullish signals going forward.
10

5
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

6
Commodities Monthly

Industrial metals LME index

(weekly closing)
The outlook for the industrial metal sector is being
4700
obscured by the slowdown in OECD growth implied 4500
by softer economic indicators, as well as 4300
4100
uncertainty regarding the effect of measures to 3900
tighten Chinese monetary policy. General risk 3700
3500
appetite is also being undermined by concerns 3300
3100
connected with the upcoming end of QE2, which 2900
together with the continued deterioration of the 2700
2500
European sovereign debt situation has hurt 2300
commodities due to the strong dollar. Consequently, 2100
1900
general price levels have fallen back in line with 1700
those last seen in Q4-10. Despite further high short 1500
1300
term uncertainty, we regard current prices as 1100
attractive for accumulating long term positions. 900

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2008

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2010

2011
However, we do not expect industrial metal indices
generally to increase beyond previous highs, at least
until late this year. Instead, we foresee range-bound
and volatile trading as industrial metals seek a new Industrial metal prices
base from which to advance after softening over the (LME, indexed, weekly closing, January 2010 = 100)
summer. While we still recommend selective 200 Copper
exposure, preferring copper and aluminium to nickel 190 Nickel
Aluminium
and zinc, a broader investment profile is once again 180
Zinc
attractive following the recent market price 170
Lead
160 Tin
correction. However, there is some risk of more 150
bearish short term downside in the event of a 140
sustained dollar rally when QE2 ends and the Fed 130
potentially signalling upcoming interest rate hikes. 120
110
100
Following eight reserve requirement ratio (RRR)
90
increases, four interest rate rises and the renminbi 80
strengthening 5% against the US dollar, we believe 70
Chinese authorities have probably completed 60
nov-10
feb-10

feb-11
jan-10

mar-10
apr-10
maj-10
jun-10
jul-10
aug-10
sep-10
okt-10

dec-10
jan-11

mar-11
apr-11
maj-11
implementation of most planned measures to curb
inflation and dampen economic activity. Given the usual
lag of between six and 24 months before the effects of
such measures become apparent, we expect their effects
to become increasingly apparent going forward, LME price and inventory changes last month
intensifying discussions on whether the country faces a
soft vs. hard landing. The country’s reluctance to buy 10
metals when prices are high was already apparent earlier 5
this year with prices near record highs. However, in view
0
of continued strong industrial activity, industry
-5
inventories must have fallen resulting in a greater need
to restock. Anecdotally, buying interest may well have -10
increased in May as consumers took the opportunity to -15
restock partially on price weakness. -20

-25 Price (%) Inventories (%)

The worst drought in 50 years has hit Chinese hydro
power production hard. As a result, power rationing was -30

introduced in several provinces in April, a situation which -35

Tin
Aluminium

Lead
Zinc
Copper

Nickel

Steel

is bound to worsen over the summer as consequently

reduced industrial activity adversely impacts both metal
production and consumption. The energy intensive early
segment of the value chain will most probably be worst
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
affected, hitting supply even harder than demand with
increasing supply tightness as a result.

7
Commodities Monthly

Industrial metals
Aluminium LME aluminium price and inventories
(weekly data)
• Chinese power rationing will probably have a negative 5000000 LME inventoris (t, left axis) 3500
effect on domestic aluminium supply in particular, with LME price ($/t, right axis)
4500000 3250
potentially stronger import demand going forward.
• High marginal production costs, possibly as high as 4000000 3000

$2500/t, have built a strong floor under aluminium 3500000 2750

prices, skewing price risk to the upside from current 3000000 2500
levels. We expect aluminium to rebound above $2800/t 2500000 2250
quickly when general sentiment turns bullish again.
2000000 2000
• Bearishly, however, the market remains in surplus this
1500000 1750
year and probably also in 2012-13.
• Although LME inventories are at record highs, a major 1000000 1500

share in both the US and Europe is tied up in financial 500000 1250

transactions and warehouse queues. As a result the 0 1000
physical market is in fact significantly tighter than it

2002

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2004

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2008

2009

2010

2011
appears.

Copper LME copper price and inventories

(weekly data)
• Anecdotal evidence suggests that Chinese bonded 1000000 11000
LME inventoris (t, left axis)
warehouse inventory levels have begun to decrease as
900000 10000
lower prices trigger restocking demand, a trend also LME price ($/t, right axis)
800000 9000
reflected in the narrowing LME vs. SHFE premium.
• Stabilizing or falling SHFE, LME and COMEX copper 700000 8000

inventories also suggest the copper market is tightening. 600000 7000

• We recommendation to build long copper positions in 500000 6000
the $8500-9000/t range as we expect the market to
400000 5000
remain tight until at least the end of next year with prices
300000 4000
rising well above $10000/t before moving lower again.
• Long term, copper will be strongly supported by China’s 200000 3000

ambitious plans to build low cost housing. 100000 2000

• Speculative positions in COMEX copper have fallen 0 1000
sharply implying scope to accumulate new longs.
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2010

2011
• The Peruvian election scheduled for June poses a bullish
event risk if Ollanta Humala wins.

Nickel LME nickel price and inventories

(weekly data)
• LME inventories have continued to fall in May on strong 180000 60000
LME inventoris (t, left axis)
demand from the stainless steel industry as well as 55000
160000 LME price ($/t, right axis)
supply disruptions. However, recent trends suggest 50000
inventories may be starting to reverse. 140000
45000
• So far, the market appears to have successfully absorbed 120000 40000
strong production growth in China. 35000
100000
• We expect the nickel market to reverse from deficit to 30000
surplus moving into the second half of this year, with 80000
25000
resulting further price weakness. 60000 20000
• We will remain bearish on nickel until prices fall to a 15000
40000
fundamentally sound level around $20000/t. 10000
• Power rationing in China represents potential upside risk 20000
5000
as it could hurt NPI production going forward. 0 0
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2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

8
Commodities Monthly

Industrial metals
Zinc
Zin c LME zinc price and inventories
inventories
(weekly data)
• While for this year, the zinc market still appears 900000 LME inventoris (t, left axis) 5000
oversupplied, we believe it could move into balance in LME price ($/t, right axis)
800000 4500
2012. However, the market may tighten earlier than
anticipated due on weaker Chinese production and 700000 4000

metal being tied up in financing deals. 600000 3500

• Currently, we see little value in zinc above $2000/t.
500000 3000
• Recently released data from the International Lead and
Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) concerning the zinc market 400000 2500

showed supply of refined zinc exceeding demand by 300000 2000

111,000 tonnes, a 4.8% y/y increase in mine output, a
200000 1500
4.7% rise in refined output, and 6% higher consumption.
• According to documents released in connection with the 100000 1000

Glencore IPO the company controls 60% of marketable 0 500

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2008

2009

2010

2011
zinc output worldwide, implying potentially significant
pricing power concerning zinc production.

Steel LME steel billet price and inventories

(weekly data)
• Chinese 62% iron ore corrected 5.7% down in May 90000
LME inventoris (t, left axis)
1300
versus the April close which also coincided with a 6.3% 80000 LME price ($/t, right axis) 1200
fall in the Shanghai equity index over the same period. 1100
• LME 3 month steel billets closed between $535/t and 70000
1000
$566/t in May closing the moth at $566/t, up 1.25% 60000
900
versus the April close. 50000 800
• In Europe domestic shredded scrap was down 5.2% 700
40000
while domestic European HRC was down 9.4% and
600
North American, Midwest HRC was down 6.4% in May 30000
500
• With weakness in iron ore in China, scrap in Europe and 20000
400
HRC in both the US and Europe we expect to see 10000 300
weakness also in LME steel billets ahead. The ongoing
0 200
inventory cycle driven soft-patch and flagging growth
jul-08

okt-08

jan-09

apr-09

jul-09

okt-09

jan-10

apr-10

jul-10

okt-10

jan-11

apr-11
momentum should also put a lid on the upside for a
period.

LME lead price and inventories LME tin price and inventories
(weekly data) (weekly data)
325000 LME inventoris (t, left axis) 4000 40000 36000
LME inventoris (t, left axis)
300000 33000
LME price ($/t, right axis)
3500 35000 LME price ($/t, right axis)
275000
30000
250000 3000 30000 27000
225000
200000 2500 25000 24000

175000 21000
2000 20000
150000 18000
125000 1500 15000 15000
100000
1000 10000 12000
75000
9000
50000
500 5000
25000 6000
0 0 0 3000
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2011

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2011

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

9
Commodities Monthly

Industrial metals
Aluminium futures curve Copper futures curve
(LME, $/t) (LME, $/t)
2975 9500
2950
9400
2925
2900 9300
2875
9200
2850
2825 9100
2800
9000
2775
2750 8900 11-03-31
2725 11-03-31 11-04-28
8800
2700
11-04-28 11-05-27
2675 8700
2650 11-05-27
8600
2625
2600 8500

jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
mar-15
jun-15
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
mar-15

Nickel futures curve jun-15 Zinc futures curve

(LME, $/t) (LME, $/t)
27000 2450
11-03-31
26500 2425
11-04-28 11-03-31
26000
11-05-27 2400 11-04-28
25500
11-05-27
2375
25000
24500 2350

24000 2325
23500
2300
23000
2275
22500
22000 2250

21500 2225
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
mar-15
jun-15

jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
mar-15
jun-15
Lead futures curve Tin futures curve
(LME, $/t) (LME, $/t)
2750 32200
2725 11-03-31 31800
2700 11-04-28 31400
2675 11-05-27 31000
2650 30600
2625
30200
2600
29800
2575 11-03-31
29400
2550
29000 11-04-28
2525
28600 11-05-27
2500
2475 28200
2450 27800
2425 27400
2400 27000
nov-11

feb-12
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
mar-15
jun-15

jun-11
jul-11

aug-11
sep-11
okt-11

dec-11

jan-12

mar-12

apr-12
maj-12

jun-12
jul-12
aug-12

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

10
Commodities Monthly

Precious metals
Precious metal prices
Our bullish short term view on gold remains strong (COMEX/NYMEX, indexed, weekly closing, January 2010 = 100)
on widespread disagreement between European 290
Silver
leaders concerning Greece. Contagion risk has also 280
Platinum
270
increased. In addition, OECD central banks remain 260 Gold
250
reluctant to meet rising inflation with interest rate 240
Palladium

hikes, fearing adverse effects on the recovery. 230

220
Meanwhile, Chinese inflation looks likely to increase 210
200
further despite several rate hikes. Gold is therefore 190
180
likely to continue to be supported by safe haven and 170
160
inflation hedge demand at least during Q3-11. The 150
main threat over this period is potential dollar 140
130
appreciation. Although it has been suggested that 120
110
the end of QE2 could drive the dollar upward, 100
90
potentially greater uncertainty and higher risk 80

nov-10
feb-10

feb-11
jan-10

mar-10
apr-10
maj-10
jun-10
jul-10
aug-10
sep-10
okt-10

dec-10
jan-11

mar-11
apr-11
maj-11
aversion could also act supportive for gold. In both
the short- and long term, continued central bank
buying supports the gold price with GFMS
estimating an accumulation of 240 tonnes this year.
Asian demand in general is also likely to remain Gold to silver ratio
strong, acting as a major underlying driver. Still, we (front month, weekly closing)
regard the long term outlook more conservatively,
86
believing that gold may be adversely affected by a 82
stronger US dollar in Q4-11 and decreasing Chinese 78
inflation. 74
70
Markets are increasingly concerned about Greek debt 66
62
restructuring. While modest measures could adversely
58
affect the country’s banking system, major provisions 54
could hurt public finances in more healthy countries 50
within the Euro-zone. While European politicians have 46
already begun discussing soft restructuring, i.e. 42
38
extending debt maturities, the ECB strongly opposes all
34
such talks. Further, meddling with debt maturities could 30
make the country’s bonds unusable as collateral,
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011
reducing ECB funding for Greece. Also depressing are
bond valuations and indicators concerning prospects for
Ireland and Portugal. It is very difficult to imagine a
scenario in which the downward spiral can be reversed Gold and currencies vs. USD
without considerable social and economic hardship.
10
YTD(%) MoM (%)
9
The inflation and interest rate environment remains very 8
accommodative for gold. Despite rising US headline and 7
core CPI and pressure from the OECD, the Fed is unlikely 6
to raise interest rates before 2012. Also, inflation is 5
4
probably not that unwelcome in the US, with dollar debt
3
increasing. The ECB’s first post crisis rate increase (by 2
25bp to 1.25%) is likely to be followed by two more hikes 1
later this year (by 25bp in July and October), which would 0
only bring rates into line with current core inflation. In -1
China, we expect one more interest rate increase -2
-3
(probably in July) although inflation may rise to around
-4
6% before tightening measures take effect. Real interest
rates are therefore likely to remain negative over the next GOLD EUR JPY GBP SEK RUB NOK CHF
half year, supporting the investment attractions of gold
compared to other safe haven investments. Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

11
Commodities Monthly

Precious metals
Gold Gold price
(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)
• Our bullish short term view on gold has strengthened 1600
further mainly due to the European debt crisis, as well as 1500
present and feared future inflation. We expect gold to 1400
easily pass above $1600/ozt. 1300

• Our long term view concerning potential dollar strength 1200

1100
and easing Chinese inflation remain more modest.
1000
• According to the World Gold Council (WGC) China 900
overtook India as the largest market for gold 800
investments during Q1-11. 700
• After decreasing during the general commodity 600
liquidation wave in early May, physical gold ETP holdings 500
400
recovered during the second half of the month to close
300
at 2058 tonnes, only 57 tonnes below the previous high. 200
• Long speculative positions in COMEX gold fell 10% in

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011
May to relatively low levels compared to open interest.

Silver Silver price

(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)
• Silver suffered an expected, violent and wholly justified 50
20% correction in May and remains sensitive to further 48
46
downside. 44
42
• We see little value in silver above $30/ozt (i.e. a 40
38
gold/silver ratio below 50). 36
34
• The recent almost hysterical rally appears to have been 32
30
driven by demand mainly from US, Indian and Chinese 28
26
retail investors. 24
22
• Despite a recent explosion in silver trading in China 20
18
turnover remains far behind Europe and the US. 16
14
• Physical silver ETP holdings fell dramatically in May to 12
10
currently 13780 tonnes vs. a record 15518 tonnes in 8
6
April. 4
2
• Long speculative positions in COMEX silver have
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011
continued to fall and are now relatively low compared to
open interest.

Platinum & Palladium Platinum and palladium prices

(NYMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)
• Disrupted global auto production as a result of the 1100 2300
Japanese earthquake continues to dampen palladium Palladium (left axis)
1000
and platinum prices. However, demand is likely to catch Platinum (right axis) 2050
900
up as automakers seek to offset shortfalls in Q4-11. 1800
• Johnson Matthey expects the platinum market to be 800

balanced in 2011 although insufficient investments in 1550

700
mining capacity are likely to drive it into deficit in both 600 1300
2012 and 2013.
500
• Johnson Matthey is even more bullish on palladium with 1050
400
a deficit expected as early as this year. 800
• The downside risk for both platinum and palladium is 300

strongly supported by high production costs. 550

200
• While physical platinum ETP holdings remain close to 100 300
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

record highs, palladium holdings have trended lower in

recent months.
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

12
Commodities Monthly

Precious metals
Gold futures curve Silver futures curve
(COMEX, $/ozt) (COMEX, $/ozt)
1750 48
47
1700 11-03-31 46
11-04-28 45
1650 11-05-27
44 11-03-31

43 11-04-28
1600
11-05-27
42
1550 41
40
1500
39
38
1450
37
1400 36

jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
apr-12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-14
apr-14
jul-14
okt-14
jan-15
apr-15
jul-15
okt-15
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
mar-15
jun-15
sep-15
dec-15
mar-16
jun-16
Palladium futures curve Platinum futures curve
(NYMEX, $/ozt) (NYMEX, $/ozt)
785 1850
11-03-31
11-04-28 1840
780
11-05-27
1830 11-03-31
775 11-04-28
1820 11-05-27

770 1810

1800
765
1790
760
1780

755 1770
jun-11

sep-11

dec-11

mar-12

jun-12

jul-11

jul-12
okt-11

jan-12

apr-12

Physical silver
silver and gold ETP holdings Physical palladium
palladium and platinum ETP holdings
(weekly data, tonnes) (weekly data, tonnes)
2200 75
2100 70
2000 65
1900 60
1800 55
1700 Silver holdings / 10 50
1600 Gold holdings 45 Palladium
1500 Platinum
40
1400 35
1300 30
1200 25
1100 20
nov-10
feb-10

feb-11

nov-10
jan-10

mar-10
apr-10
maj-10
jun-10
jul-10
aug-10
sep-10
okt-10

dec-10
jan-11

mar-11
apr-11
maj-11

feb-10

feb-11
jan-10

mar-10
apr-10
maj-10
jun-10
jul-10
aug-10
sep-10
okt-10

dec-10
jan-11

mar-11
apr-11
maj-11

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

13
Commodities Monthly

Agriculture
Grains prices
Short- to medium term fundamentals in the (CBOT, indexed, weekly closing, January 2010 = 100)
agricultural commodity sector have strengthened 190
significantly due to protracted droughts in several 180
Wheat
parts of the world which have substantially reduced Soybeans
170 Corn
yield expectations for developing winter crops. In 160
addition, wet and cold weather conditions are 150
adversely affecting yield expectations for spring 140
crops currently being planted. Hoarding by 130
consumers to secure supply and to some extent also 120
by producers hoping for even higher prices is 110
exacerbating the situation. Consequently, we 100
upgrade our previous neutral short term view to 90
moderately bullish as demand destruction is likely 80
to limit rallies due to already record high prices. We 70

nov-10
feb-10

feb-11
jan-10

mar-10
apr-10
maj-10
jun-10
jul-10
aug-10
sep-10
okt-10

dec-10
jan-11

mar-11
apr-11
maj-11
expect high sector sensitivity and unpredictability
as the market follows weather forecasts closely. As
a result of relatively easy substitution and low
inventories, at least for corn and soybeans, we
expect grain movements to be largely synchronized. Year end grain inventories (days of supply)
Reduced protectionism is a bearish short term (USDA, yearly data updated monthly)
factor with Ukrainian and Russian restrictions to be 130
removed. A drastic improvement in weather Wheat
120 Soybeans
conditions, major general risk aversion, significant
Corn
dollar strength and/or lower energy prices would 110
support an improved outlook for supply, restricting
100
prospects for prices. Our long term view remains
bearish with adverse weather conditions likely to 90
become less frequent during the second half of the
80
year following the end of the current La Niña
meteorological phenomenon this summer. 70
However, previous record high prices could be
60
exceeded before such a position is reached.
Nevertheless, considering current low inventories 50
00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12
the market is unlikely to soften much before the US
corn and soybean harvest in Q4-11.
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, USDA, SEB Commodity Research
The global crop weather situation continues to dampen
the present production outlook. The US is most widely
affected with a severe drought in southern winter wheat
growing areas, where the crop is developing, and
excessive rain in the spring wheat growing areas in the
north, where planting is progressing. Simultaneously in
the Midwest rains are delaying corn and soybean
planting. In Canada planting has also been delayed by
wet conditions. These disturbances are typical late stage
La Niña phenomena. According to latest data, the effects
of the anomaly continued to weaken during March with
present forecasts indicating a neutral environment will
be achieved between May and July, and will continue for
the rest of the year, hopefully improving growing
conditions significantly. In South America, while heavy
rain has delayed the harvest high moisture levels will
benefit the approaching planting season. Droughts of
varying intensities will adversely affect developing winter
crops in Europe, China and the former Soviet Union.

14
Commodities Monthly

Agriculture
Corn Corn price
(CBOT, ¢/bu, front month, weekly closing)
• Since despite high corn prices ethanol costs only half 800
that of gasoline net of subsidies, corn demand for
ethanol production remains high. Sharply lower crude oil 700
prices would however hurt demand for ethanol.
• Despite wet conditions in the Midwest, corn planting has 600

moved back on schedule in recent weeks at 79%. Still, 500

compared with a 5-year average of 87% as of May 22,
planting is slower than at any time since 1995. 400
• Initial US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates
for 2011/2012 indicate that global corn inventories are 300

expected to recover slightly vs. 2010/2011.

200
• The International Grains Council (IGC) estimates
2011/2012 production/consumption/inventories at 100
848/853/116 mt respectively, compared with

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011
corresponding USDA forecasts of 868/861/129 mt.

Wheat Wheat price

(CBOT, ¢/bu, front month, weekly closing)
• Drought developments in coming months will be 1200
extremely important for the wheat market.
1100
• In the southern Great Plains drought conditions are now
1000
rated “exceptional”, i.e. their most severe. On May 22
some 44% of the US winter wheat crop was rated poor 900

or very poor vs. only 9% last year. 800

• US spring wheat planting is also lagging with only 54% 700
planted on May 22 compared to a 5-year average of 89%
600
due to cold, wet conditions.
•
500
Initial USDA production estimates for 2011/2012 suggest
global wheat inventories are expected to fall slightly 400

compared to 2010/2011. 300

• The IGC estimates 2011/2012 production/consumption/ 200
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011
inventories at 667/669/185 mt respectively, compared
to corresponding USDA data of 669/670/181 mt.

Soybeans Soybean price

(CBOT, ¢/bu, front month, weekly closing)
• The soybean market remains tighter than for wheat but 1800
less so than for corn.
• Uncertainties affecting Asian demand render the 1600
soybean market less predictable.
1400
• With both corn and soybean growing in the US based in
the Midwest, soybeans are also being affected by 1200
planting delays due to wet conditions, although with
soybean planting starting later than for corn the 1000
situation is less problematic.
• As of May 22, some 41% of US planting had been 800

completed compared with a 5-year average of 51%.

600
• Initial USDA production estimates for 2011/2012 show
global soybean inventories in terms of days of supply are 400
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

expected to fall slightly vs. 2010/2011.

• USDA forecasts 2011/2012 production/consumption/
inventories of 263/263/62 mt respectively.
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

15
Commodities Monthly

Agriculture
Corn futures curve Wheat futures curve
(CBOT, ¢/bu) (CBOT, ¢/bu)
775 975

750 950
11-03-31
725 11-04-28 925
11-05-27 900
700
875
675
850
650
825 11-03-31
625
800 11-04-28
600 11-05-27
775
575 750
550 725
jul-11

okt-11

jan-12

apr-12

jul-12

okt-12

jan-13

apr-13

jul-13

okt-13

jan-14

apr-14

jul-14

okt-14

jul-11

okt-11

jan-12

apr-12

jul-12

okt-12

jan-13

apr-13

jul-13
Soybean futures curve Sugar
(CBOT, ¢/bu) (NYBOT, ¢/lb)
1425 40

1400 11-03-31 35
11-04-28
1375 30
11-05-27

25
1350

20
1325
15
1300
10
1275
5
1250
0
jul-11

okt-11

jan-12

apr-12

jul-12

okt-12

jan-13

apr-13

jul-13

okt-13

jan-14

apr-14

jul-14

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Cotton Cocoa 2011

(NYBOT, ¢/lb) (NYBOT, $/t)
220 3800

200 3600
3400
180
3200
160 3000

140 2800
2600
120
2400
100 2200
80 2000
1800
60
1600
40 1400
20 1200
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

16
Commodities Monthly

Commodity related economic indicators

EUROZONE Current Date Previous Date Next
Industrial production (%, YoY) 5,6 2011-03-31 7,8 2011-02-28 2011-06-15
Industrial production (%, MoM) 0,0 2011-03-31 0,6 2011-02-28 2011-06-15
Capacity utilization (%, sa) 81,3 2011-06-30 80,3 2011-03-31
Manufacturing PMI 54,8 2011-05-31 58,0 2011-04-30 2011-06-01
Real GDP (%, YoY) 2,5 2011-03-31 2,0 2010-12-31 2011-06-08
Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 0,8 2011-03-31 0,3 2010-12-31 2011-06-08
CPI (%, YoY) 2,8 2011-04-30 2,7 2011-03-31 2011-06-16
CPI (%, MoM) 0,6 2011-04-30 1,4 2011-03-31 2011-06-16
Consumer confidence -9,8 2011-05-31 -11,6 2011-04-30 2011-06-22
USA
Industrial production (%, YoY) 5,0 2011-04-30 5,3 2011-03-31
Industrial production (%, MoM) 0,0 2011-04-30 0,7 2011-03-31 2011-06-15
Capacity utilization (%) 76,9 2011-04-30 77,0 2011-03-31 2011-06-15
Manufacturing PMI 60,4 2011-04-30 61,2 2011-03-31 2011-06-01
Real GDP (%, YoY) 2,3 2011-03-31 2,8 2010-12-31
Real GDP (%, QoQ, saar) 1,8 2011-03-31 3,1 2010-12-31 2011-06-24
CPI (%, MoM) 3,2 2011-04-30 2,7 2011-03-31 2011-06-15
CPI (%, MoM, sa) 0,4 2011-04-30 0,5 2011-03-31 2011-06-15
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 103,4 2011-03-31 103,1 2011-02-28
Consumer confidence (Michigan) 74,3 2011-05-31 69,8 2011-04-30 2011-06-17
Nonfarm payrolls (net change, sa, ‘000) 244 2011-04-30 221 2011-03-31 2011-06-03
JAPAN
Industrial production (%, YoY, nsa) -13,1 2011-03-31 2,9 2011-02-28 2011-05-31
Industrial production (%, MoM, sa) -15,5 2011-03-31 1,8 2011-02-28 2011-05-31
Capacity utilization (%, sa) 73,6 2011-03-31 93,7 2011-02-28
Manufacturing PMI 45,7 2011-04-30 46,4 2011-03-31 2011-05-31
Real GDP (%, YoY, nsa) -1,0 2011-03-31 2,2 2010-12-31
Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) -0,9 2011-03-31 -0,8 2010-12-31 2011-06-09
CPI (%, YoY) -0,1 2011-05-31 -0,1 2011-04-30 2011-07-01
CPI (%, MoM) 0,3 2011-04-30 0,3 2011-03-31
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 104,9 2011-02-28 104,2 2011-01-31
Consumer confidence 33,6 2011-04-30 38,3 2011-03-31
CHINA
Industrial production (%, YoY) 13,4 2011-04-30 14,8 2011-03-31 2011-06-14
Manufacturing PMI 52,9 2011-04-30 53,4 2011-03-31 2011-06-01
Real GDP (%, YoY) 9,7 2011-03-31 9,8 2010-12-31 2011-07-15
CPI (%, YoY) 5,3 2011-04-30 5,4 2011-03-31 2011-06-14
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 102,3 2011-03-31 102,1 2011-02-28
Consumer confidence 107,6 2011-03-31 99,6 2011-02-28
Bank lending (%, YoY) 17,5 2011-04-30 17,9 2011-03-31
Fixed asset investment (%, YoY) 23,8 2010-12-31 24,0 2010-09-30
OTHER
OECD Area Comp. Leading Indicator 103,2 2011-03-31 103,0 2011-02-28
Global manufacturing PMI 55,0 2011-04-30 55,8 2011-03-31
Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

17
Commodities Monthly

Performance
Closing YTD 1m 1q 1y 5y
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (TR) 1429,14 4,9 -3,5 28,6 36,9 36,0
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (ER) 1344,42 4,9 -3,5 28,4 36,7 23,8
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (PI) 1698,85 4,8 -3,5 32,3 39,4 63,3
UBS B. CMCI Energy Index (PI) 1634,69 13,4 -7,5 27,1 32,7 37,3
UBS B. CMCI Industrial Metals Index (PI) 1286,36 -0,3 -3,3 21,0 26,6 20,0
UBS B. CMCI Precious Metals Index (PI) 2376,01 9,9 -2,0 46,9 34,5 140,6
UBS B. CMCI Agriculture Index (PI) 1947,97 -0,9 1,3 43,9 61,6 110,6
Baltic Dry Index 1474,00 -17,9 16,2 -17,9 -63,9 -39,5

Crude Oil (NYMEX, WTI, $/b) 100,59 10,1 -10,9 26,3 36,0 41,1
Crude Oil (ICE, Brent, $/b) 115,03 21,4 -8,0 48,3 55,4 63,4
Aluminum (LME, $/t) 2625,00 6,3 -5,1 23,0 28,5 -0,9
Copper (LME, $/t) 9199,00 -4,2 -1,3 27,9 32,6 16,4
Nickel (LME, $/t) 23090,00 -6,7 -14,0 9,0 8,1 5,4
Zinc (LME, $/t) 2274,00 -7,3 1,2 3,6 17,5 -38,0
Steel (LME, Mediterranean, $/t) 566,00 -0,7 1,3 26,2 21,7 N/A
Gold (COMEX, $/ozt) 1536,30 8,1 0,3 37,3 26,7 139,1
Corn (CBOT, ¢/bu) 758,50 20,6 4,9 100,7 111,3 201,9
Wheat (CBOT, ¢/bu) 819,75 3,2 10,3 61,8 79,1 108,3
Soybeans (CBOT, ¢/bu) 1379,75 -1,0 2,2 45,1 47,1 138,1
Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

Major upcoming commodity events

Date Source
Department of Energy, US inventory data Wednesdays, 16:30 CET www.eia.doe.gov
American Petroleum Institute, US inventory data Tuesdays, 22:30 CET www.api.org
CFTC, Commitment of Traders Fridays, 21:30 CET www.cftc.gov
US Department of Agriculture, Crop Progress Mondays, 22.00 CET www.usda.gov
International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report June 16 www.oilmarketreport.com
OPEC, Oil Market Report June 10 www.opec.org
Department of Energy, Short Term Energy Outlook June 7 www.eia.doe.gov
US Department of Agriculture, WASDE June 9 www.usda.gov
International Grains Council, Grain Market Report June 30 www.igc.org.uk
OPEC ordinary meeting, Vienna, Austria June 8 www.opec.org
Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

Contact list
COMMODITIES Position E-mail Phone Mobile
Terje Anderson Global Head of terje.anderson@seb.no +47 22 82 71 03 +47 92 61 26 76
Commodities
RESEARCH
Bjarne Schieldrop Chief analyst bjarne.schieldrop@seb.no +47 22 82 72 53 +47 92 48 92 30
Filip Petersson Strategist filip.petersson@seb.se +46 8 506 230 47 +46 70 996 08 84
SALES SWEDEN
Katarina Johnsson Corporate katarina.johnsson@seb.se +46 8 506 233 95 +46 73 501 52 02
Karin Almgren Institutional karin.almgren@seb.se +46 8 506 230 51 +46 73 642 31 76
SALES NORWAY
Maximilian Brodin Corporate/Institutional maximilian.brodin@seb.no +47 22 82 71 62 +47 92 45 67 27
SALES FINLAND
Vesa Toropainen Corporate/Institutional vesa.toropainen@seb.fi +358 9 616 286 08 +358 50 597 000 6
SALES DENMARK
Peter Lauridsen Corporate/Institutional peter.lauridsen@seb.dk +45 331 777 34 +45 616 211 59
TRADING
Mats Hedberg Chief Dealer mats.hedberg@seb.se +46 8 506 230 15 +46 70 462 29 78

18
Commodities Monthly

DISCLAIMER & CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE

The information in this document has been compiled by SEB Merchant Banking, a division within Skandinaviska Enskilda
Banken AB (publ) (“SEB”).

Opinions contained in this report represent the bank’s present opinion only and are subject to change without notice. All
information contained in this report has been compiled in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. However, no
representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the completeness or accuracy of its contents and
the information is not to be relied upon as authoritative. Anyone considering taking actions based upon the content of this
document is urged to base his or her investment decisions upon such investigations as he or she deems necessary. This
document is being provided as information only, and no specific actions are being solicited as a result of it; to the extent
permitted by law, no liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct or consequential loss arising from use of this document
or its contents.

SEB is a public company incorporated in Stockholm, Sweden, with limited liability. It is a participant at major Nordic and
other European Regulated Markets and Multilateral Trading Facilities (as well as some non-European equivalent markets)
for trading in financial instruments, such as markets operated by NASDAQ OMX, NYSE Euronext, London Stock Exchange,
Deutsche Börse, Swiss Exchanges, Turquoise and Chi-X. SEB is authorized and regulated by Finansinspektionen in Sweden;
it is authorized and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of designated
investment business in the UK, and is subject to the provisions of relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where SEB
conducts operations.

SEB Merchant Banking. All rights reserved.

SEB Commodity Research

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodity Analyst

bjarne.schieldrop@seb.no
+47 9248 9230

Filip Petersson, Commodity Strategist

filip.petersson@seb.se
+46 8 506 230 47

19
www.seb.se/mb