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Thayer Consultancy

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Background Briefing: China-Vietnam Naval Patrols in Tonkin Gulf Carlyle A. Thayer June 21, 2011

[clientnamedeleted] 1. Given that Vietnam is publicizing joint naval patrols with China in the Gulf of Tonkin and that it comes at such a tense time, do you think this means things are startingtocooldownabit?Irealizetheseareroutinepatrols,butthetimingisvery curious. If they were seriously upset with each other, wouldnt they have backed awayfromthesepatrols? ANSWER:TheSouthChinaSeahasledtoasouringofpoliticalrelationsbuthasnot yetspilledovertoaffectthebroadanddeepnatureofSinoVietnamrelations.The holding of the exercises is a good sign. It demonstrates the commitment of both ChinaandVietnamtokeepingupcooperativeactivitiesthatarenotsubjecttotheir sovereignty dispute over the Spratlys. China is at pains to emphasize to other countries, most recently Malaysia, that bilateral relations will not be affected by territorialdisputes. 2.DoyouthinkthesituationbetweenChinaandVietnamisstillescalating?Vietnam had another round of protests on Sunday and China has continued to publish editorialslambastingHanoi.Isitalljustrhetoricordoyouthinkthereisapossibility shotscouldbefiredintheSouthChinaSea? ANSWER: The incidents between China and Vietnam have involved civilian Chinese ships not the military. Some perspective is needed on the two cable cutting incidents.Thesecondmayhavebeenamishap.Nonethelessnationalistsentiments have beenaroused inboth countries but thisis contained. I think it is too early to judgeChineseintensionsbuttheupcomingroundofASEANrelatedmeetingswould seem to preclude more aggressive Chinese behaviour. It would be counter productive.Idonotforeseeanyescalation. 3. What about the dialogue with Washington last week? China is very upset that Vietnam is involving the U.S., do you think this momentum will continue into the ASEANRegionalForumnextmonthasitdidlastyearwithSecretaryofStateHillary Clintontakingastand? ANSWER:TheU.S.haspulledbacktorestatingitsfundamentalprinciples.Chinacan read into the USVietnam dialogue all they want but the joint statement was pure boilerplate. This dialogue represents an evolution of defence and security ties and notanantiChinaalignment.VietnammaywellbetryingtoleadtheUSbuttheUS

2 has quite separate and legitimate national interests in the stability of the South ChinaSeaandapeacefulresolutionofissuesonthebasisofinternationallaw.The US will restate its position. The US and ASEAN approaches are aligned but the US must follow rather than lead. China will have to adjust to this reality. The South China Sea has many layers of dispute, some can be addressed bilaterally but the largerissuescanonlybeaddressedmultilaterally.Thereisconsensusnottofocuson theSouthChinaSeasomuchandputChinainthecornerbuttofocusonmaritime securityissueswhicharemuchbroaderinscope.

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