ISTANBUL UNIVERSITY

JOURNAL OF ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONICS ENGINEERING

YEAR
VOLUME
NUMBER


: 2005
: 5
: 2


(1463-1467)






Received Date : 13.5.2004
Accepted Date: 1.6.2005


DEVELOPMENT OF A TACTICAL BALLISTIC MISSILE
TRAJECTORY PREDICTION TOOL

1
Ali

AKGL
2
Sartuk

KARASOY

1,2
Engineering Development Directorate ROKETSAN Missiles Industries Inc.
P.K.:30, 06780, Elmada-Ankara, Turkey


1
E-mail: aakgul@roketsan.com.tr
2
E-mail: skarasoy@roketsan.com.tr


ABSTRACT

A trajectory prediction program was developed to predict the full trajectory (partially tracked by a
satellite or a radar) of a tactical ballistic missile. In order to improve the accuracy of the ballistic
coefficient an adaptive C
D
model is developed. Dynamic model, filtering of measurements, geocentric
earth model and atmosphere model were applied and the details of the models and test results are
presented. Input to the program is coordinates of the tracked trajectory portion and output is the full
trajectory. In this way the launch and target point can be obtained within seconds of execution time.

Keywords: Trajectory prediction, application of satellite measurements, ballistic model, target
tracking, missile launch surveillance


1. INTRODUCTION
It is important to detect ballistic missile launches
in time and accurately for effective counter
measures. Trajectory estimation plays an
important role in early warning system and anti-
tactical ballistic missile systems for tracking and
guidance. Early detection could allow for
warnings to be dispatched to the predicted
impact areas and would also permit interdiction
of the missile launchers. The detection of
launches is also important in alerting defensive
systems, such as anti-tactical ballistic missile
batteries, against these attacks, as early as
possible [1], [2], [3].

For these purposes missile surveillance system is
needed to complete national security and to
strengthen existing defense systems. Such
systems may consist of satellite and/or aircraft
borne radar systems.
The primary purposes of missile launch
surveillance are:
1) to provide a timely report of each occurrence
of a missile launch,
2) to estimate launch/trajectory parameters, and
3) to estimate present and future missile
trajectories as a function of time during
flight.

In the present work, the main objective is to
predict launch and target points. After the missile
position and velocity vectors are obtained, the
prediction starts with the time integration of
equations of motion using a six-parameter-state
vector, which is composed of the position and

Development Of A Tactical Ballistic Missile Trajectory Prediction Tool


Ali Akgl, Sartuk Karasoy
1464

velocity vectors. Backward time integration is
used for predicting the launch point on the other
hand, forward time integration is used for
predicting the target point. The integration
procedure continues until the criterion of
intersection of the missile with the Earth surface
is satisfied.


2. DYNAMIC MODEL

The Ballistic Missile flies along a ballistic
trajectory above the rotating Earth. Constructing
a mathematical model for this system with some
simplifying assumptions to describe its motion is
the first step for identification and analysis.
Consider a vehicle in the free-flight phase over
an elliptic [4], non-rotating Earth, as illustrated
in Fig. (1). In this study, the Ballistic Missile is
taken as a point mass with constant weight
following a ballistic trajectory. Significant forces
acting on the Ballistic Missile are Drag and
gravity. The drag force acts in the opposite
direction to the velocity vector with a magnitude
proportional to the air density (which is a
function of the altitude [6]).


Fig. 1 Dynamic Model
The ballistic trajectory of a Ballistic Missile can
be evaluated by the flight simulation programs
which are using the thrust and aerodynamic data
obtained from tests or analysis. While tracking a
Ballistic Missile, it is considered to be difficult to
estimate rocket motor size and thrust,
aerodynamic and external geometry of the
Ballistic Missile. The full trajectory of a tactical
ballistic missile can be predicted from a tracked
portion of the trajectory. In active phase of the
flight, trajectory between the current location and
launch point can be predicted by backward
integration in time. However target point and the
trajectory directed to this point cannot be
predicted properly. On the other hand, in the
free-flight phase launch and target points and full
trajectory can be predicted.

Trajectory Equations of Motion
The trajectory differential equations are
x x
ma mg D =
2 1
cos cos (1)
y y
ma mg D =
1
sin
(2)
z z
ma mg D =
2 1
sin cos (3)
where D is the drag force; a
x
, a
y
and a
z
denote
acceleration as components along x, y and z
respectively; g
x
, g
y
and g
z
refer gravity
components along x, y and z respectively; m is
the mass of the Ballistic Missile and
1
-
2
are
the flight path angles.
|
|
.
|

\
|
+
=

2 2
1
1
tan
z x
y
v v
v

(4)
|
|
.
|

\
|
=

x
z
v
v
1
2
tan
(5)
replacing D, equation (1) becomes,
x x
D
a g
m
SC
V =
2 1
0 2
cos cos
2
1

(6)
In equation (6), is the air density; V denotes
missile velocity, S and C
D0
represent the
reference area and zero lift drag coefficient,
respectively.

In equation (6), all parameters can be
estimated from the ballistic trajectory data,
except S, C
D0
and m. Ballistic coefficient is
defined as,
m
SC
D0
=
(7)
Instead of using S, C
D0
and m, the ballistic
coefficient (equation (8)) can be used to predict
ballistic flight trajectory. Ballistic coefficient can
then be redefined as
2 1
2
cos cos
2
1

V
g a
x x

+
=
(8)

Development Of A Tactical Ballistic Missile Trajectory Prediction Tool


Ali Akgl, Sartuk Karasoy
1465


Prediction Algorithm
While tracking a Ballistic Missile, real time
trajectory, target and launch points are desired.
The trajectory estimator needs to characterize
the position and velocity of the missile. Usually
for this purpose, inertial Cartesian coordinates of
{x,y,z} and {
z y x , ,
} are used as the estimation
parameters. The launch and impact points can be
predicted using state vector measured at different
time points in the missile trajectory. The six-
parameter-state vector, which is composed of the
position and velocity vectors, are numerically
integrated either forward or backward in time
until the Earth is intersected.
To start integration and reconstruction of the
ballistic trajectory, ballistic coefficient, initial
position, velocity and acceleration components
of the Ballistic Missile must be known. These
parameters can be estimated from the known
trajectory portion.
Let the state vector be,

=
6
5
4
3
2
1
x
x
x
x
x
x
v
v
v
z
y
x
z
y
x
(9) (9)
The state equation can be written as,
) , ( = t F

(10) (10)
or

+ +
+ +
+ +
=
z
y
x
g x x x
g x x x
g x x x
x
x
x
t F
2 1
2
6
2
5
2
4
1
2
6
2
5
2
4
2 1
2
6
2
5
2
4
6
5
4
sin cos ) )( 2 / (
sin ) )( 2 / (
cos cos ) )( 2 / (
) , (



(11) (11)
State equation can be numerically integrated
either forward or backward in time until the
Earth is intersected by equation (12).

=
t
t
t t
dt t F

0
0
) , (
(12)
Numerical Integration
The trajectory parameters at any time step can be
predicted with the integration of the known state
vector from the previous time step. Acceleration
components at time step (k-1) are calculated
using equation (13). Position and velocity
components at time step (k) are calculated using
equation (14). This integration is continued
recursively either backward or forward in time
until the altitude reaches to zero. Intersection
points are the launch and the target points
respectively. The predicted launch and target
points and the trajectory are shown in Fig. (2).

1
2 1
2 2 2
1
2 2 2
2 1
2 2 2
1
sin cos ) )( 2 / (
sin ) )( 2 / (
cos cos ) )( 2 / (

+ +
+ +
+ +
=

k
z z y x
y z y x
x z y x
k
z
y
x
g v v v
g v v v
g v v v
a
a
a



(13)

state vector at step k,
1
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

k
z
y
x
z
y
x
k
z
y
x
a
a
a
v
v
v
z
y
x
dt
dt
dt
dt
dt
dt
v
v
v
z
y
x
(14)
dt is the time step.

Range (m)
A
lt
it
u
d
e
(
m
)
-50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 500000 550000 600000 650000 700000 750000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
Range (m)
A
lt
it
u
d
e
(
m
)
25000 50000 75000 100000 125000 150000
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Predicted Trajectory
Measured Data
Predicted
Trajectory

Fig. 2 Launch and Target Point Prediction

Filtering
Since the data obtained from satellite or radar is
noisy, it needs to be filtered by appropriate
algorithm. In this present work least-squares
(LSE) filtering is applied. While tracking the
Ballistic Missile, position and/or velocity and/or
acceleration components are obtained from the
satellite or radar. When this is not possible (a
problem in communication link or due to
insufficient capability) velocity and/or
acceleration components can be calculated by

Development Of A Tactical Ballistic Missile Trajectory Prediction Tool


Ali Akgl, Sartuk Karasoy
1466

using the known ballistic trajectory position data
(whose existence is a must to make trajectory
prediction). LSE is applied by polynomial fitting
to the discrete position data in order to obtain a
curve, which is a function of time. Velocity and
acceleration vs. time curves can be obtained by
calculating first and second derivatives
respectively (equation (15)). Obviously the
predicted trajectory is more accurate when it is
possible to measure all trajectory parameters
(position, velocity and acceleration).
f
t t t
f t
t x
t x
t x
t x LSE t t t x
, ,
0
0
) (
) (
) (
) ( , , ,

=
=
(15) (15)


Ballistic Coefficient Update Model
In the literature, the same ballistic coefficient
value, which is calculated for the tracked portion
of trajectory, is used in the trajectory
reconstruction. However, since the ballistic
coefficient is a function of C
D0
, S and m
(equation (7)) and due to fact that C
D0
changes
with the flight conditions, the ballistic coefficient
is no longer a constant value in the reality (Fig.
(3)). Drag coefficient is the only factor that alters
the ballistic coefficient during the flight.

In order to update the ballistic coefficient for
each estimated trajectory location and to use an
adaptive C
D
model, a database that consists of
C
D0
against varying Mach number and altitude is
prepared previously. For this purpose, a typical
tactical ballistic missile geometry with an
axisymmetric body only (without any
protuberances and lifting surfaces) is used in the
calculations done with Missile DATCOM [5].
Below equation, ( )
S
D
C is a scale parameter
that is obtained from the tracked trajectory
portion,

D
C denotes the current estimated drag
coefficient calculated by adaptive C
D
model and

is the updated ballistic coefficient for the

current estimated trajectory location.

|
|
.
|

\
|
=
D
S
D
C
C

(16)
Time (sec)
B
a
l
l
i
s
t
i
c
C
o
e
f
f
i
c
i
e
n
t
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
Trajectory
Prediction

Fig. 3 Ballistic Coefficient Update Model


3. TEST CASES

Five different ballistic missile trajectories
were reconstructed by using the flight simulation
program. For each of these appropriate noises
were added to the trajectory parameters in order
to induce the measurement errors [7]. To
simulate the real time tracking of a Ballistic
Missile from a satellite or a radar, each test
trajectory is split into small trajectory portions
and input to the trajectory prediction program.
Then the program reconstructs the trajectories
corresponding to the each of the tracked
trajectory portions.


Maximum ballistic trajectory parameters of
these different ballistic test missiles are shown
below,

Max. Range (km) 173 - 1410
Max. Altitude (km) 37 - 142
Flight Time (s) 190 - 382
Max. Velocity (m/s) 1150 - 4450

Having the longest range, Ballistic Test
Missile-5 trajectory is presented. The test
trajectory and a portion of it (as modeling the
satellite measurement) and corresponding
predicted trajectory by the program are shown in
Fig. (4). The predicted trajectories around target
point and launch point corresponding to each
tracked portion are shown in Fig. (5) and Fig. (6)
respectively. The program predicts the launch
and target points within seconds of execution
time. Launch and target points were predicted

Development Of A Tactical Ballistic Missile Trajectory Prediction Tool


Ali Akgl, Sartuk Karasoy
1467

accurately within the 1% error of its maximum
range.

x (m)
y
(
m
)
0 250000 500000 750000 1E+06 1.25E+06 1.5E+06
-200000
-150000
-100000
-50000
0
50000
100000
Satellite Measurement
Predicted Trajectory
Earth
Real Trajectory

Fig. 4 Trajectory Prediction

x (m)
y
(
m
)
1.4125E+06 1.415E+06 1.4175E+06 1.42E+06
-163000
-162500
-162000
-161500
-161000
-160500
-160000
Real Trajectory

Fig. 5 Target Point Prediction

x (m)
y
(
m
)
-10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000 4000
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Real Trajectory

Fig. 6 Launch Point Prediction


4. CONCLUSION

In this work, a trajectory prediction program was
developed to predict the full trajectory (partially
tracked by satellite or radar) of a tactical ballistic
missile. In order to improve the accuracy of the
ballistic coefficient an adaptive C
D
model is
used. The prediction of launch and target point
can be obtained within seconds.
Several different test cases were tested with the
present program. The accuracy of predicting the
launch and target points is high.

Acknowledgement
This work was supported by the Turkish
Ministry of Defense under the lead of Turkish
Air Force (TuAF). The authors gratefully
acknowledge this support. The authors would
like to thank Koray Taylan for programming the
graphical user interface, Alp Marangoz, Ercan
rc and Aya Yetere for programming support
and preparing the test trajectories and finally to
Erhan Tarhan for reading and commenting the
manuscript.

REFERENCES

[1] Lee, S.C., Huang, C.Y., Liu, C.Y.,
Trajectory Estimation for Tactical Ballistic
Missiles in Terminal Phase Using On-Line
Input Estimator, Proc. Natl. Sci. Counc.
ROC(A), Vol. 23, No. 5, 1999, pp.644-653.
[2] Lee, S.C., Liu, C.Y., Trajectory Estimation
of Reentry Vehicles by Use of On-Line Input
Estimator, Journal of Guidance Control and
Dynamics, Vol. 22, No. 6, Nov.-Dec.
1999,pp.808-815.
[3] Crumpton, K.S., The Effects of Filter and
Coordinate Frame Selection on the Accuracy
and Efficiency of Tactical Ballistic Missile
Parameter Estimation and Prediction, Ph.D.
Thesis, University of Colorado, 2000.
[4] Robert M. Rogers, Applied Mathematics in
Integrated Navigation Systems, AIAA
Education Series.
[5] Buns, K. A., Stoy, S. L., Vukelich, S. R.,
Missile DATCOM: User Manual 1997
Fortran 90 Revision, 1998.
[6] U.S. Standard Atmosphere, 1976, U.S.
Government Printing Office, Washington,
D.C., 1976.
[7] William H. Press, Numerical Recipes,
Cambridge University Press.