HSBC - India Property - Home Sales Still Slowing - Q1 Earnings Set To Disappoint

FIG India Real Estate
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Global Research
New data for April highlights continued home sales growth slowdown, confirming our weak sector outlook Inventory slowly rising, but not enough to trigger price correction Credit growth is slowing, which will impact execution scale-up during FY12. Expect weak Q1 earnings
We reiterate our bearish residential outlook. However, we like HDIL Overweight (V) for its volume growth pricing strategy. We are also positive on Unitech although we see no catalysts in the near to medium term due to overhang of 2G spectrum issue. Execution during FY12 will remain a challenge. Bank lending to the real estate sector, which had picked up during Q4 FY11 to 22%, in line with overall credit growth, has again slipped during April-May, to 20%. Recent media reports suggest that Indias Central bank has cautioned banks to slow their lending to real estate projects as a precautionary step to avoid loan defaults. This is in line with our expectation that execution during FY12 will face severe funding challenges. Q1 FY12 preview: Expect weak earnings and new sales. We anticipate earnings growth for our real estate coverage universe to fall c15% y-o-y, led by flat execution growth and rising interest cost expense. Although new sales volumes could remain high due to plot sales by large players such as DLF, we expect realizations (sales volumes) to continue to trend down. While we expect ORL to report healthy earnings growth (36% y-o-y), most of the growth is likely to be driven by investment income earned on excess funds.
India Property
Home sales still slowing; Q1 earnings set to disappoint
Figure 1: HSBC India property coverage Bloomberg Current Rating Target Potential NAV code price* price return (prem/ disc) DLF Unitech Oberoi Realty HDIL Indiabulls Real Estate Anant Raj Mahindra Holidays DLFU IN UT IN OBER IN HDIL IN IBREL IN ARCP IN MHRL IN 230 34 238 169 116 76 374 N(V) OW(V) UW(V) OW(V) N(V) UW(V) UW(V) 251 50 200 205 125 70 344 9% 47% -16% 21% 8% -8% -8% -30% -45% -16% -56% -47% -45%
*As of 11 July 2011 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC research
Figure 2: Q1 FY12 earnings estimate summary Company Sales y-o-y EBITDA (INRm) margin 20,455 -5% 7,674 -7% 2,127 33% 3,750 -23% 3,635 112% 852 -18% 1,563 54% 55.4% 32.4% 60.0% 85.0% 31.4% 59.4% 34.5% y-o-y (bp) 398 (306) 549 (168) 679 437 1,188 Adj. PAT (INRm) 3,765 1,436 1,089 1,321 298 361 327 y-o-y
DLF Unitech Oberoi HDIL Indiabulls Real Estate Anant Raj Mahindra Holidays
-8% -20% 36% -44% 45% -21% 146%
Source: Company data, HSBC estimates
14 July 2011
Ashutosh Narkar* Analyst HSBC Securities and Capital Markets India Private Limited +91 22 22681474 ashutoshnarkar@hsbc.co.in Chirag Gupta* Associate Bangalore
Figure 3: Residential and commercial real estate performance and expectations View HSBC Global Research at: http://www.research.hsbc.com *Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Issuer of report: HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited Mumbai Bangalore Gurgaon Pune Hyderabad Chennai Kolkata April April Resi-view Commercial-view __volume__ __pricing___ HSBC FY12e ___HSBC FY12e__ M-o-M Y-o-Y M-o-M Y-o-Y Vols Pricing Demand Vacancy -7% 6% 4% -4% 0% 0% -3% -1% 6% 50% 4% 19% 106% 6% 1% 1% -2% 0% 1% 3% 1% 8% 8% 28% 10% 5% 10% 8%
Disclaimer & Disclosures This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it
Source: PE Analytics, HSBC Research
Asiamoney 2011 starts 18 July Please vote for HSBC
FIG India Real Estate 14 July 2011
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Q1 FY12 earnings preview

Figure 4: India Property coverage Q1 FY12 earnings estimates (INRm) DLF Sales EBITDA EBITDA margin PAT Unitech Sales EBITDA EBITDA margin PAT Q1 FY11 21,606 11,116 51% 4,086 Q4 FY11 Q1 FY12e 28,700 8,530 30% 3,450 20,455 11,339 55% 3,765 y-o-y -5% 2% 4% -8% q-o-q Comment -29% 33% 26% 9% We expect top-line growth to remain weak, driven by plot sales, of which c40-45% have been at very low pricing of INR1,000psf. We estimate DLF to report new sales volumes of INR3.7m sq ft at INR3,550psf during Q1 FY12 along with c0.7m sq ft of lease volumes at INR42psf We anticipate that sales growth will be hurt by the diversion of managements focus towards the 2G spectrum issue in the near term, along with a volume slowdown in the past few quarters. We expect margins to bounce back sequentially as new set of projects contributes to the top line. We expect new sales volumes of 1.9m sq ft at average price of INR4,642psf We expect top line to decline sequentially as Esquire is unlikely to reach revenue recognition stage during the quarter. We expect margins to remain stable with marginal growth as lease income should remain strong. We expect ORL to report new sales volumes of 0.16m sq ft at INR12,856psf We expect weak top-line growth on the back of lower transfer of development rights (TDR) sales (0.7m sq ft at INR2,400psf and FSI sales of INR1.8bn. While EBITDA margin could fall y-o-y, we expect it to remain stable q-o-q. We do not expect any meaningful new sales data during Q1 FY12 We expect sales growth to remain weak as lumpiness in revenue booking is likely to continue during FY12. Earnings growth though will report a spurt primarily owing to a low base. We seek more clarity on project status of the new mill lands acquired during FY11 We expect stable lease income of INR190m along with new residential projects income from new project launched in Gurgaon Sector 91. We estimate ARIL to have sold 0.35mn sq ft at INR3,123psf during Q1 FY12. We do not expect any significant change in leasing both at Manesar IT park and Kirti Nagar Mall. We expect more data points on ARILs Neemrana project launched during July 2011 and planned 125 acre project in Sector 63 in Gurgaon
8,286 2,938 35% 1,800
10,542 1,685 16% 1,025
7,674 2,486 32% 1,436
-7% -15% -3% -20%
-27% 48% 16% 40%
Oberoi Realty Sales EBITDA EBITDA margin PAT
1,599 904 55% 798
2,668 1,736 59% 1,367
2,127 1,441 60% 1,089
33% 59% 5% 36%
-20% -17% 1% -20%
HDIL Sales EBITDA EBITDA margin PAT
4,851 4,205 87% 2,344
5,476 4,080 74% 1,973
3,750 3,188 85% 1,321
-23% -24% -2% -44%
-32% -22% 11% -33%
IBREL Sales EBITDA EBITDA margin PAT Anant Raj Industries Sales EBITDA EBITDA margin PAT
1,717 422 25% 206
5,611 995 18% 140
3,635 1,141 31% 298
112% 170% 7% 45%
-35% 15% 14% 113%
1,034 569 55% 458
634 455 72% 306
852 506 59% 361
-18% -11% 4% -21%
34% 11% -12% 18%
Real estate coverage Sales EBITDA EBITDA margin PAT Mahindra Holidays Sales EBITDA EBITDA margin PAT
39,093 20,154 52% 9,692
53,632 17,480 33% 8,261
38,493 20,100 52% 8,270
-2% 0% 1% -15%
-28% 15% 20% 0% We estimate MHRL to book c4,600 new members during Q1 FY12 at average price of INR0.3m. Channel checks suggest the company has part opened the Tungi resort which will ease pressure on inventory. However with increased membership utilization from members, we expect resort income to remain flat y-o-y
1,018 230 23% 133
1,658 599 36% 402
1,563 539 35% 327
54% 134% 12% 146%
-6% -10% -2% -19%
Source: Company data, HSBC research
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Key interest rates and liquidity indicators for real estate sector
Figure 5: Lending to real estate as share of total non food bank credit Figure 6: Lending growth across real estate and overall system
3.9% 3.7% 3.5% 3.2% 3.0% Mar-09 Jul-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 Mar-11 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 25% 23% 22% 20% 19% 17%
Y-o-Y grow th in credit to real estate Y-o-Y grow th in non food credit
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
J ul-09
Source: RBI, HSBC Research
Figure 7: Regulatory interest rate trends (HSBC economist expects another 75bp hike in repo rate during FY12)
C RR 10 8 Repo R ate R everse R epo
Figure 8: Home loan rates Vs medium term deposit rates

System Depos it rates-SBI 1-3 YR Depos it % N ew hom e lo an rate % 15% 10%
6 4 2 Jul-09 Jul-11 Jul-01 Jul-05 Jul-07 Jul-03

5% 0% J ul-05 J ul-07 J ul- 11 Jul-01 Jul-03
Figure 9: Residential supply trend across top 10 Indian cities (Good proxy for planned execution ramp up)
Figure 10: Outstanding system Liquidity VS BSE Realty (Realty index has mirrored liquidity position in the system)
500 400 (mn sq ft) 300 200 100

(2,000) Jul-06 2,000 1,000 (1,000)
Outstanding overnight liquidity with banks (LHS) BSE Realty (RHS) 15000 10000 5000 0 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11
0 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11e CY12e
Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Research
May-11
Nov-10
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April volume growth was mixed Mumbai, Bangalore, Pune and Kolkata slowed down further, while Gurgaon and Chennai gained
Figure 11: Mumbai Metropolitan Region residential demand trend
Abso rptio n (LHS) Outstanding Inventory
Figure 12: Mumbai City residential demand trend
Absorption (LHS) 5 4 (M n sq ft)
Outstanding in v entory 30 24 18 12 6 Oct-09 Oc t-10 (Mon ths) (Mon ths) (Mon ths)
15 12 (M n sq ft) 9 6 3 Oct-09 Oc t-10 Apr-08 Apr-09 Oct-08 Apr-10 Apr-11
30 24 18 12 6 (Mon ths)
3 2 1
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Oct-08
Note: Outstanding Inventory = inventory / three-month average absorption Source: PE Analytics, HSBC Research
Figure 13: Gurgaon residential demand trend

A bso rptio n (LHS) Oustanding Inventory
Figure 14: Noida residential demand trend

Absorption (LHS) 12.5 10.0 (M n sq ft) (M o nth s) 7.5 5.0 2.5 Oct-09 Oc t-10 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 30 24 18 12 6 Oct-09 Oc t-10 Apr-08 Apr-09 Oct-08 Apr-10 Apr-11 Outs tanding Inv entory 35 28 21 14 7 -
10 8 (M n sq ft) 6 4 2 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-08 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-08 Apr-09
60 48 36 24 12 -
Figure 15: Bangalore residential demand trend

Abso rptio n (LHS) Oustanding Inventory
Figure 16: Chennai residential demand trend

A bsorption (LHS) Outstanding Invento ry
7.5 6.0 (M n sq ft) 4.5 3.0 1.5 Oct-09 Oc t-10 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11
50 40 30 20 10 (Mon ths) (M n sq ft)
5 4 3 2 1
Apr-11
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Figure 17: Hyderabad residential demand trend

A bsorption (LHS) Outstanding Invento ry
Figure 18: Kolkata residential demand trend

Abso rptio n (LHS) Outstanding Invento ry
5 4 (M n sq ft) 3 2 1 Oct-09 Oc t-10 Apr-08 Apr-09 Oct-08 Apr-10 Apr-11
50 40 (M n sq ft) (Mon ths) 30 20 10 -
2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Oct-09 Oc t-10 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-10 Apr-09 Apr-11
35 28 21 14 7 (Mon ths)
Figure 19: Pune residential demand trend

A bsorption (LHS) Outstanding Inventory
7.5 6.0 (M n sq ft) 4.5 3.0 1.5 Oct-09 Oc t-10 Apr-08 Apr-10 Oct-08 Apr-09 Apr-11
50 40 30 20 10 (Mon ths)
Figure 20: Residential volume growth trend across major Indian cities
160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% M umbai Metropolitan R egion
Source: PE Analytics , HSBC Research
J an-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
(y-o -y) volu me gr owth
Mum bai C ity
Bangalore
Gurgaon
Pune
Hy derabad
C hennai
Kolk ata
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Figure 21: Major Indian cities residential market volume trend

125 F Y09 100 75 50 50 23 25 25 MM R
F Y10
F Y11
91 71 47 33 30 55 40 35 42 35 37 38 34 29 28 17 18 32 13 10 14
(M n sq ft)
Mum bai City
Gurgaon
Bangalore
Pune
Hyderabad
Chennai
Kolkata
Figure 22: Major Indian cities residential market new project launches trend
125 98 100 75 53 50 25 M MR
F Y09
F Y10
FY11
(Mn sq ft)
62 44 36 22 14 43 29 31 24 46 37 28 17 32 16 23 19 12 10 5 17 41
Mum bai C ity
Gurgaon
Bangalore
Pune
Hy derabad
Chennai
Kolkata
Figure 23: City attractiveness mapping Mumbai Bangalore Gurgaon Noida/ Greater Noida Pune Hyderabad Chennai Kolkata
Risk to price growth Risk to demand Supply impediments Premium to secondary market Local brokers view on risk to demand HSBC view
Negative High
Neutral Medium
Neutral Low
Negative
Negative
Neutral
Neutral
Positive
Source: HSBC Research
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Figure 24: New launches in Q1 FY12 in major Indian cities Developer Name Mumbai Runwal Group Ajmera Lodha Group Kumar Builders Kalpataru Rustomjee Group Akshay Corporation Man Infra Construction RNA Builders (N G) HDIL Srishti Group Gurgaon Bestech Group DLF Ansal Housing Lahari Constructions Bangalore Sobha Developers LGCL Developers Mahaveer Structures Embassy Group Sobha Developers Century Group Mahaveer Structures Gopalan Enterprises H.M. Constructions Sobha Developers Mantri Developers Chennai Ozone Group Sri Satya Sai Const. Arun Excello Foundations Hiranandani Phoenix Group (Hyd) Vasanth Builders Marg Constructions Ramaniyam Builders Unitech Unitech VGN Homes Hyderabad Shanta Shriram Sri Sai Developers Shanta Shriram Pune Rohan Builders Kumar Properties Pride Purple Group Marvel Realtors Goel Ganga Devlopment Kolkata Eden Group Eden Group Eden Group Sobha Developers Tata Ganguly Group Mayfair Group Project Name Micro-market Launched (m sq ft) Launched Units Current BSP* (INR psf) % absorbed (till June-2011) Launch month Potential completion date
Runwal Elegante Phase-II Pristine Phase-II Lodha Aqua Phase-II Akul Tulip Crest Seasons Akshay Paradise Opus Phase-III RNA Viva Phase-II Whispering Towers Phase-II Tara Park View Ananda Phase-II DLF Garden City Ansal Heights Phase-II Rockwell Plaza Signature Stonescape Mahaveer Willow Annexe Embassy Pristine Ruby Platinum Phase-II Century Square Residential Project Admirality Court Tropical Tree Phase-II Sobha Elite Mantri Alpyne Metro Zone Phase-III Mayfair Apartments Temple Greens Phase-II Upscale Phase-II The Village-Apartments Residential Project Kalpa Vriksha Kattima Chaitanya North Town Ekanta North Town VGN Imperia Icon Hima Sai Heights Padmanabha Residency Rohan Leher Phase-III Penninsula Park Spring Arco Melrose Phase-II Eden Lavinder Eden Sapphire Eden Serenity Sobha Garnet La Montana Phase-III 4 Sight Florence Venus II
Andheri(W) Borivali(W) Dahisar(E) Ghatkopar(E) LBS Marg Bandra(E) Chembur Dahisar(E) Mira Road Mulund(W) Powai Sector 81 Sector 90 Sector 92 Bowenpally Haralur Road Hennur Road Kengeri Sarjapur Road Tumkur Road Hebbal Hosur Road Indiranagar R.T. Nagar Tumkur Road Uttarahalli Anna Nagar OMR Road OMR Road OMR Road OMR Road Mylapore OMR Road Pallavaram Perambur Perambur Vanagaram Banjara Hills Gandhi Nagar Secunderabad Baner Baner- Pashan Dhanorie Hadapsar Sopanbaug EM Bye Pass EM Bye Pass EM Bye Pass NIBM Road Talegaon Garia Narendrapur
0.38 0.12 0.04 0.05 0.27 0.39 0.08 0.08 0.63 0.94 0.13 0.16 1.44 0.24 0.07 0.24 0.08 0.07 1.66 0.33 0.70 0.14 0.07 0.08 0.28 0.23 1.47 0.08 0.25 0.31 0.17 0 0.08 0.16 0.64 0.33 0.28 0.07 0.23 0.11 0.14 0.08 0.43 0.31 0.07 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.10 0.19 0.18 0.02
195 88 30 48 192 150 100 200 540 706 150 100 400 150 55 32 35 88 416 192 216 76 45 38 160 208 700 76 266 131 120 8 70 100 605 510 288 24 160 80 94 44 375 192 22 9 9 24 43 185 130 20
16,000 6,500 6,800 8,100 7,650 18,500 8,000 5,650 5,500 7,551 3,500 4,250 4,222 2,555 2,200 8,800 4,500 2,150 5,115 2,550 6,500 4,000 7,500 5,800 3,163 2,790 7,300 2,999 2,550 4,750 4,000 8,500 4,750 5,500 5,750 5,000 3,499 7,000 3,500 3,900 4,100 5,200 2,800 5,000 6,500 2,450 2,300 2,350 4,300 3,300 3,500 1,950
11 13 10 2 10 15 30 25 9 22 4 40 88 20 7 9 6 10 3 13 1 0 7 26 13 48 6 33 5 8 13 50 100 34 48 39 10 0 9 25 15 41 13 5 23 33 33 21 9 86 12 5
11-Apr 11-Apr 11-Apr 11-Apr 11-Apr 11-May 11-Jun 11-May 11-May 11-May 11-Jun 11-Jun 11-Jun 11-Jun 11-Jun 11-Apr 11-Apr 11-Apr 11-Apr 11-Apr 11-Jun 11-Jun 11-Jun 11-May 11-Jun 11-May 11-Apr 11-Apr 11-Apr 11-Apr 11-Apr 11-Jun 11-Jun 11-Jun 11-Jun 11-Jun 11-Jun 11-Apr 11-Apr 11-Apr 11-Apr 11-Apr 11-Apr 11-Apr 11-Apr 11-Apr 11-Apr 11-Apr 11-Jun 11-Jun 11-Apr 11-Apr
14-Feb 11-Sep 13-Dec 13-May 14-Dec 14-Mar 13-Dec 13-Dec 13-Dec 15-Dec 12-Dec 13-Jul 13-Mar 13-Jul 13-Mar 14-May 13-Jul 12-Dec 14-Nov 14-May 12-Jun 13-Dec 13-Mar 12-Sep 14-Mar 14-Jun 14-Dec 12-Dec 12-Dec 13-Dec 13-Apr 11-Dec 13-Aug 12-Dec 14-Dec 14-Dec 13-Jun 13-Mar 13-May 13-Feb 12-Dec 12-Dec 13-May 14-Apr 13-May 12-Dec 12-Dec 12-Oct 13-Dec 13-Jul 14-Dec 12-Jul
*Base selling price (excluding charges for amenities) Source: PE Analytics
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Figure 25: Price changes in a few selected projects across the major cities Project Gurgaon Palm Hills Express Greens Centrum Park Palm Terraces Select Uniworld Resorts Bangalore Garrison Westend Heights-New Town Welworth City Gateway Purva Venezia Golden Grand Mumbai Bellisimo Sky Suite Orchid Heights Majestic Towers Aqua Splendor Orchid Suburbia Orchid Woods Chennai Commanders Court Esplanade Ph 2 Indiabulls Greens Uni Homes Palm Villas Hyderabad New City Heights Central Park Orange County Kolkata Prakriti Vistas Harmony Gateway Uni Homes Pune Kalpataru Estate Emerald City Forest Trails
Developer
___________________ Price trends ________________ __________Change______________ Apr-11 Mar-11 Jan-10 Apr-10 YoY QoQ MoM
Emaar MGF DLF IBREL Emaar MGF Unitech
3,850 3,700 3,600 6,750 9,341
3,850 3,700 3,600 6,750 9,341
3,850 3,650 3,300 6,150 8,571
3,499 2,500 2,750 NA 4,900
10% 48% 31% NA 91%
0% 1% 9% 10% 9%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sobha DLF Puravankara Brigade Group Puravankara Golden Gate Properties
3,233 3,250 1,925 6,090 3,290 4,500
3,233 3,250 1,925 6,090 3,290 4,500
3,233 3,131 1,900 6,090 3,090 4,000
2,866 3,000 1,835 6,090 3,400 4,050
13% 8% 5% 0% -3% 11%
0% 4% 1% 0% 6% 13%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lodha IBREL DB Realty HDIL Lodha Mahindra Lifestyle DB Realty DB Realty
34,285 22,000 25,200 6,201 6,200 7,700 9,360 12,285
34,285 22,000 25,200 6,201 6,200 7,700 9,360 11,700
34,285 23,000 25,000 6,201 5,931 7,700 9,000 11,700
30,000 21,000 23,400 5,751 5,700 7,100 8,550 10,440
14% 5% 8% 8% 9% 8% 9% 18%
0% -4% 1% 0% 5% 0% 4% 5%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5%
DLF Emaar MGF IBREL Unitech Unitech
11,650 3,950 3,230 2,150 3,450
11,650 3,950 3,230 2,150 3,450
11,650 3,500 3,200 2,150 3,450
10,250 3,400 3,200 1,995 3,300
14% 16% 1% 8% 5%
0% 13% 1% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
DLF IBREL Jayabheri
3,300 4,500 4,500
3,300 4,200 4,500
3,300 4,000 4,500
3,000 3,600 4,500
10% 25% 0%
0% 13% 0%
0% 7% 0%
Godrej Properties Unitech Unitech Unitech Unitech
2,425 3,200 3,845 2,645 2,400
2,425 3,200 3,895 2,645 2,400
2,350 2,950 3,645 2,495 2,400
1,950 2,825 3,425 2,375 2,190
24% 13% 12% 11% 10%
3% 8% 5% 6% 0%
0% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Kalpataru Gera Developers Paranjape Schemes
3,500 3,500 4,800
3,400 3,550 4,800
3,400 3,000 4,583
3,000 3,000 4,583
17% 17% 5%
3% 17% 5%
3% -1% 0%
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Commercial (office space) Real Estate trends

Fig 26: Mumbai supply, demand and vacancy trends
New Supply 5 4 M n sq ft 3 2 1 0
4QFY08 4QFY09 2QFY11 2QF Y09 4QF Y11 2QF Y10 4QF Y10
Fig 27: Mumbai commercial rental trends

CBD PBD (Pow ai) 500 400 IN R p sf pm 300 200 100 0
4QF Y08 2QFY09 4QFY09 4QFY11 2QF Y10 4QF Y10 2QF Y11 2QF Y11 2QF Y11
Dem and
Vac ancy (RHS) 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
BKC PBD (Vashi)
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, HSBC Research
Fig 28: NCR supply, demand and vacancy trends

N ew Supply 7.5 6.0 Mn sq ft 4.5 3.0 1.5 0.0
4QFY08 4QF Y09 2QFY11 4QF Y11 2QF Y09 2QF Y10 4QF Y10
Fig 29: NCR rental trends

CBD 400 320 IN R psf p m 240 160 80 0
4QF Y08 2QFY09 4QFY09 4QFY11 4QFY11 2QF Y10 4QF Y10
Demand
Vac anc y (R HS) 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0%
SBD
Gurgaon
N oida
Fig 30: Bangalore supply, demand and vacancy trends

15 12 Mn sq ft 9 6 3 0
4QFY09 2QFY11 4QF Y08 2QF Y10 4QF Y11 2QF Y09 4QF Y10
Fig 31: Bangalore rental trends

20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% IN R p sf pm 90 75 60 45 30 15
4QFY08 2QF Y10 2QF Y09 4QF Y09 4QF Y10
C BD PBD (Whitefield)
SBD PBD (OR R)
New Supply
Dem and
Vac ancy (RHS)
abc
Commercial (office space) Real Estate trends

Fig 32: Chennai supply, demand and vacancy trends
New Supply 5 4 Mn sq ft 3 2 1 0
4QFY09 4QF Y10 2QFY11 4QF Y11 4QF Y08 2QF Y09 2QF Y10
Fig 33: Chennai rental trends

C BD PBD (Guindy ) 100 84 IN R p sf p m 68 52 36 20
Dem and
Vac ancy (RHS) 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
SBD PBD (Perungudi)
Fig 34: Hyderabad supply, demand and vacancy trends

New Supply 5 4 Mn sq ft 3 2 1 0
2QF Y09 4QFY09 4QFY10 4QF Y08 2QF Y11 2QF Y10 4QF Y11
Fig 35: Hyderabad rental trends

C BD 70 58 IN R psf p m 46 34 22 10
4QFY08 4QFY11 4QFY11 2QF Y10 2QF Y09 4QF Y09 4QF Y10 2QF Y11 2QF Y11
Dem and
Vac ancy (RHS) 30% 24% 18% 12% 6% 0%
SBD
PBD
Fig 36: Pune supply, demand and vacancy trends

New Supply 5 4 Mn sq ft 3 2 1 4QFY09 2QFY11 4QF Y11 4QF Y08 2QF Y10 2QF Y09 4QF Y10
Fig 37: Pune rental trends

C BD PBD (Hadapsar) 80 68 18% 12% 6% 0% IN R p sf pm 56 44 32 20
4QFY08 2QFY09 2QF Y10 4QF Y09 4QF Y10
Dem and
Vac ancy (RHS) 30% 24%
SBD PBD (Hinjew adi)
10
abc
Fig 38: Kolkata supply, demand and vacancy trends

New Supply 2.5 2.0 Mn sq ft 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
Fig 39: Kolkata rental trends

CBD (Park St.) PBD (Rajarhat) 120 IN R psf pm 95 70 45 20
4QFY09 4QF Y10 4QFY08 2QF Y11 2012e 2QF Y10 2QF Y09 4QF Y11
20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
Dem and
Vacancy (RHS) 30% 24% 18% 12% 6% 0%
SBD (Park Circ us) PBD (Salt Lake)
Fig 40: Commercial development plan and supply in 2010

Dev elopm ent plans at th e beginning of the y ear HSBC es timate of s upply Actual supply 71 67 60 48 44 44 42 41
Fig 41: Property price growth (yoy) and vacancy rate trend
R ental rate grow th (LHS) 40% 20% 0% Vacancy rate (R HS)
80 60 (Mn sq ft) 40 20 0
2007
2005
2008
2009
2010
-20% 2009 2010 2011e 2012e -40%
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, HSBC Research
Fig 42: India commercial space demand, supply and vacancy trends
50 40
43 33 29 29 23 22 32 33
42
41 31 20
(M n sq ft)
30 20 10 0
2005
2006 Supply
2007 Dem and
2008
2009
2010
Vacancy rate (R HS)
2011e
2006
11
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India real estate coverage

Fig 43: India commercial space demand, supply and vacancy trends Company CMP Target price (INR) (INR) Rating Market cap ____________PE ____________ (USDm) FY11 FY12 FY13 ___________ PB ____________ Price to NAV FY11 FY12 FY13
DLF Unitech Oberoi Realty HDIL Indiabulls Real Estate Anant Raj
230 34 238 169 116 76
251 50 200 205 140 70
Neutral (V) Overweight (V) Underweight (V) Overweight (V) Neutral (V) Underweight (V)
8,307 1,939 1,731 1,504 1,011 526
17.7 15.9 15.1 10.0 29.1 13.4
21.4 9.8 14.6 6.2 20.7 10.1
16.9 5.6 11.6 5.1 18.9 9.4
1.5 0.8 2.3 0.7 0.5 0.6
1.4 0.7 2.0 0.7 0.5 0.6
1.4 0.6 1.7 0.6 0.5 0.5
-30% -45% -16% -56% -47% -45%
Source: Company data, HSBC estimates
Fig 44: India property companies share price trend
135 115 95 75 55 35
Oct-10
Apr-10
J an-11
Apr-11
J ul-10
DLF Anant R aj
Source: Bloomberg
U nite c h BSE Sensex
HDIL BSE Realty
Oberoi R ealty
IBREL
Fig 45: India property companies share price trend Market cap (USDm) CMP 1 week 1 month 3 months 6 months 1 year YTD
DLF Unitech Oberoi Realty HDIL Indiabulls Real Estate Anant Raj Godrej Properties Prestige Estates Sobha Phoenix Mills Sunteck Realty Ansal API Brigade
Source: Bloomberg
Rated Rated Rated Rated Rated Rated Unrated Unrated Unrated Unrated Unrated Unrated Unrated
8,307 1,939 1,731 1,504 1,011 526 1,264 597 688 898 411 152 185
230 34 238 169 116 76 810 272 213 123 292 43 74
-5.2 0.2 -3.6 -1.3 -3.3 15.0 9.1 -3.2 9.5 0.4 -1.4 -2.3 1.1
-5.2 -0.9 1.8 -7.4 -3.2 10.2 23.5 4.9 11.5 -11.5 -3.7 4.1 -7.1
-12.5 -26.0 -7.8 -11.2 -19.9 -12.8 21.6 -8.5 6.1 -10.7 -13.9 -4.5 -25.6
J ul-11
-16.9 -43.7 -3.9 -2.1 -10.3 -23.6 37.0 -9.1 -1.0 -14.9 -44.6 -20.1 -30.4
-27.7 -57.7 NA -37.0 -33.3 -33.4 25.8 -14.1 -3.4 NA -52.9 -46.1 -46.6
-25.0 -49.9 -7.7 -16.8 -19.4 -25.6 31.7 -16.2 -4.6 -28.8 -46.8 -28.8 -35.4
12
abc
India coverage price to NAV premium (discount) charts

Fig 46: DLF one-year NAV premium/discount chart
80% 40% 0% -40% -80% Sep-08 Aug-09 Jul- 10 Mar-08 Mar-09 Feb-10 Jan-11 Jul- 11 M ean -1 std dev
Fig 47: Unitech one-year NAV premium/discount chart

60% 20% -20% -60% -100% Sep-08 Aug-09 M ar-08 M ar-09 F eb-10 J ul-10 Jan-11 Jan-11 May-11 J ul- 11 Jul- 11 Jul-11 M ean -1 std dev
Source: Bloomberg, HSBC estimate
Fig 48: HDIL one-year NAV premium/discount chart

M ean 0% -1 std dev
Fig 49: Oberoi Realty one-year NAV premium/discount chart

10% 0% Mean -1 std dev
-20% -40% -60% -80% Jul-10 Aug-09 Mar-09 Jan-11 Feb-10 Jul- 11 Sep-08 -10% -20% -30% Dec -10 M ar-11 Jan-11 Apr-11 Aug-10 Oct-10
Fig 50: IBREL one-year NAV premium/discount chart

M ean 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% Sep-08 Aug-09 Jul- 10 Jul- 11 Mar-08 Mar-09 Feb-10 Jan-11 -1 std dev
Fig 51: Anant Raj one-year NAV premium/discount chart

Mean 10% -10% -30% -50% -70% Dec -08 Oct-09 May-09 M ar-10 -1 std dev
13
14 FIG India Real Estate 14 July 2011
Fig 52: India property coverage valuation summary (per share values) Company Rating Residential (A) Commercial/ retail (B) Hospitality (C) Other segments (D) Net debt (E) Land payments (F) Other businesses (G) Net asset value (A+B+C+D+E+F+G) Target price
DLF Unitech Oberoi Realty HDIL IBREL Anant Raj

Source: HSBC Research
Neutral (V) Overweight (V) Underweight (V) Overweight (V) Neutral (V) Underweight (V)
332 85 96 143 68 45
87 4 120 88 37 63
0 2 14 0 0 28
0 2 11 67 76 0
-123 -25 40 84 -6 2
-5 -7 0 0 0 2
35 1 0 0 41 0
326 61 282 382 216 140
251 50 200 205 140 70
Fig 53: India property coverage summary Company Bloomberg code Current Target price* (INR) price (INR) Rating Valuation methodology Investment risks
DLF
DLFU IN
230
251
N(V) DCF-based (COE of NAV of real estate projects. Real estate business valued at 30% discount to NAV along with terminal value of INR22. (cost of equity 15.0%, risk free rate 7.5%, market risk premium 5.5%, WACC 14.3%) OW(V) DCF-based NAV of real estate projects. Real estate business valued at 40% discount to NAV, telecom business at INR8 and terminal value of INR5. (cost of equity 15.7%, risk free rate 8.0%, market risk premium 5.5%, WACC 15.0%) UW(V) DCF-based NAV of real estate projects. Real estate business valued at 35% discount to NAV, terminal value INR17. (cost of equity 16.3%, risk free rate 8.0%, market risk premium 5.5%, WACC 16.3%) OW(V) DCF-based NAV of real estate projects. Real estate business valued at 55% discount to NAV, terminal value INR33. (cost of equity 15.5%, risk free rate 7.5%, market risk premium 5.5%, WACC 13.6%) N(V) DCF-based NAV of real estate projects. Real estate valued at INR181 (50% discount to NAV) and power business valued at INR63 (current market price less 20% holding company discount). (cost of equity 15.3%, risk free rate 7.5%, market risk premium 5.5%, WACC 15.3%) UW(V) DCF-based NAV of real estate projects. Target price set at 50% discount to NAV. (cost of equity 15.8%, risk free rate 7.5%, market risk premium 5.5%, WACC 15.8%) UW(V) DCF-based valuation. Implied exit PE of 21.6x FY12e earnings. (cost of equity 13.2%, risk free rate 7.7%, market risk premium 5.5%, WACC 13.2%)
Slower-than-expected improvement in commercial and retail segment demand and the continued fall in residential demand are key downside risks. Greaterthan-estimated non core asset sales leading to a lower debt profile would be the key upside risks to our rating and estimates Alleged involvement in the 2G spectrum row could result in weaker-than-expected project execution and lower-than-expected volumes over FY11-13e at a lower pricing level Upside risks to our rating and estimates include earlier-than-estimated approvals for the Mulund project and a positive review from the government for using higher FSI for developing public parking space, as well as better-than-expected volume growth and realizations Delaya in execution of slum rehabilitation projects, lower-than-estimated TDR volumes and prices Lower-than-anticipated demand for residential and commercial projects and slower-than-expected execution of pre-sold projects leading to delayed cash flows are key downside risks. Key upside risks include a sharp improvement in the residential sector demand Early launch of residential projects, faster-than-expected improvement in commercial projects occupancy rate would act as key upside risks An increase in disposable income levels, higher-than-anticipated membership growth, better-than-estimated price realisation on vacation ownership (VO) products, fall in debtor days, and an increase in debtor securitisation are the key upside risks to our rating and estimates
Unitech
UT IN
34
50
Oberoi Realty
OBER IN
238
200
Housing Development & Infrastructure Indiabulls Real Estate
HDIL IN
169
205
IBREL IN
116
140
Anant Raj Industries Mahindra Holidays
ARCP IN
76
70
abc
MHRL IN
374
344
*As of 11 July 2011 Source: HSBC estimates
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Notes
15
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Disclosure appendix
Analyst Certification
The following analyst(s), economist(s), and/or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) or issuer(s) and/or any other views or forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Ashutosh Narkar
Important disclosures
Stock ratings and basis for financial analysis
HSBC believes that investors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions, which depend largely on individual circumstances such as the investors existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations. Given these differences, HSBC has two principal aims in its equity research: (1) to identify long-term investment opportunities based on particular themes or ideas that may affect the future earnings or cash flows of companies on a 12-month horizon; and (2) from time to time to identify short-term investment opportunities that are derived from fundamental, quantitative, technical or event-driven techniques on a 0- to 3-month horizon and which may differ from our long-term investment rating. HSBC has assigned ratings for its long-term investment opportunities as described below. This report addresses only the long-term investment opportunities of the companies referred to in the report. As and when HSBC publishes a short-term trading idea the stocks to which these relate are identified on the website at www.hsbcnet.com/research. Details of these short-term investment opportunities can be found under the Reports section of this website. HSBC believes an investors decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances such as the investors existing holdings and other considerations. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different rating systems to describe their recommendations. Investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used in each research report. In addition, because research reports contain more complete information concerning the analysts views, investors should carefully read the entire research report and should not infer its contents from the rating. In any case, ratings should not be used or relied on in isolation as investment advice.
Rating definitions for long-term investment opportunities

Stock ratings
HSBC assigns ratings to its stocks in this sector on the following basis: For each stock we set a required rate of return calculated from the cost of equity for that stocks domestic or, as appropriate, regional market established by our strategy team. The price target for a stock represents the value the analyst expects the stock to reach over our performance horizon. The performance horizon is 12 months. For a stock to be classified as Overweight, the implied return must exceed the required return by at least 5ppt over the next 12 months (or 10ppt for a stock classified as Volatile*). For a stock to be classified as Underweight, the stock must be expected to underperform its required return by at least 5ppt over the next 12 months (or 10ppt for a stock classified as Volatile*). Stocks between these bands are classified as Neutral. Our ratings are re-calibrated against these bands at the time of any material change (initiation of coverage, change of volatility status or change in price target). Notwithstanding this, and although ratings are subject to ongoing management review, expected returns will be permitted to move outside the bands as a result of normal share price fluctuations without necessarily triggering a rating change. *A stock will be classified as volatile if its historical volatility has exceeded 40%, if the stock has been listed for less than 12 months (unless it is in an industry or sector where volatility is low) or if the analyst expects significant volatility. However, stocks which we do not consider volatile may in fact also behave in such a way. Historical volatility is defined as the past months average of the daily 365-day moving average volatilities. In order to avoid misleadingly frequent changes in rating, however, volatility has to move 2.5ppt past the 40% benchmark in either direction for a stocks status to change.
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Rating distribution for long-term investment opportunities

As of 13 July 2011, the distribution of all ratings published is as follows: Overweight (Buy) 52% (23% of these provided with Investment Banking Services) Neutral (Hold) Underweight (Sell) 36% 12% (19% of these provided with Investment Banking Services) (19% of these provided with Investment Banking Services)
Information regarding company share price performance and history of HSBC ratings and price targets in respect of its longterm investment opportunities for the companies the subject of this report,is available from www.hsbcnet.com/research.
HSBC & Analyst disclosures

Disclosure checklist Company Ticker Recent price Price Date Disclosure
DLF LTD HOUSING DEVELOPMENT & INF INDIABULLS REAL ESTATE UNITECH LTD
Source: HSBC
DLF.NS HDIL.BO INRL.BO UNTE.BO
220.65 159.75 113.10 33.15
12-Jul-2011 12-Jul-2011 12-Jul-2011 12-Jul-2011
4 4 4 4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
HSBC* has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for this company within the past 12 months. HSBC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next 3 months. At the time of publication of this report, HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. is a Market Maker in securities issued by this company. As of 30 June 2011 HSBC beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of this company. As of 31 May 2011, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a client of and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of investment banking services. As of 31 May 2011, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a client of and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of non-investment banking-securities related services. As of 31 May 2011, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a client of and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of non-securities services. A covering analyst/s has received compensation from this company in the past 12 months. A covering analyst/s or a member of his/her household has a financial interest in the securities of this company, as detailed below. A covering analyst/s or a member of his/her household is an officer, director or supervisory board member of this company, as detailed below. At the time of publication of this report, HSBC is a non-US Market Maker in securities issued by this company and/or in securities in respect of this company
Analysts, economists, and strategists are paid in part by reference to the profitability of HSBC which includes investment banking revenue. For disclosures in respect of any company mentioned in this report, please see the most recently published report on that company available at www.hsbcnet.com/research. *HSBC Legal Entities are listed in the Disclaimer below.
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Additional disclosures
1 2 3 This report is dated as at 14 July 2011. All market data included in this report are dated as at close 11 July 2011, unless otherwise indicated in the report. HSBC has procedures in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its Research business. HSBCs analysts and its other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of Research operate and have a management reporting line independent of HSBCs Investment Banking business. Information Barrier procedures are in place between the Investment Banking and Research businesses to ensure that any confidential and/or price sensitive information is handled in an appropriate manner. As of 30 June 2011, HSBC and/or its affiliates (including the funds, portfolios and investment clubs in securities managed by such entities) either, directly or indirectly, own or are involved in the acquisition, sale or intermediation of, 1% or more of the total capital of the subject companies securities in the market for the following Company(ies) : DLF LTD , HOUSING DEVELOPMENT & INF , UNITECH LTD , INDIABULLS REAL ESTATE
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Disclaimer
*Legal entities as at 4 March 2011 Issuer of report UAE HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, Dubai; HK The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation HSBC Securities and Capital Markets Limited, Hong Kong; TW HSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limited; CA HSBC Securities (Canada) (India) Private Limited Inc, Toronto; HSBC Bank, Paris Branch; HSBC France; DE HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt AG, Dsseldorf; Registered Office 000 HSBC Bank (RR), Moscow; IN HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited, Mumbai; 52/60 Mahatma Gandhi Road JP HSBC Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo; EG HSBC Securities Egypt SAE, Cairo; CN HSBC Investment Bank Asia Limited, Beijing Representative Office; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Fort, Mumbai 400 001, India Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Telephone: +91 22 2267 4921 Securities Branch; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Branch; HSBC Fax: +91 22 2263 1983 Securities (South Africa) (Pty) Ltd, Johannesburg; GR HSBC Securities SA, Athens; HSBC Bank plc, Website: www.research.hsbc.com London, Madrid, Milan, Stockholm, Tel Aviv; US HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, New York; HSBC Yatirim Menkul Degerler AS, Istanbul; HSBC Mxico, SA, Institucin de Banca Mltiple, Grupo Financiero HSBC; HSBC Bank Brasil SA Banco Mltiplo; HSBC Bank Australia Limited; HSBC Bank Argentina SA; HSBC Saudi Arabia Limited; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, New Zealand Branch This document has been issued by HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited (HSBC) for the information of its customers only. HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India. If it is received by a customer of an affiliate of HSBC, its provision to the recipient is subject to the terms of business in place between the recipient and such affiliate. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. HSBC has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; HSBC makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of the Research Division of HSBC only and are subject to change without notice. HSBC and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any securities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such securities (or investment). HSBC and its affiliates may act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting commitment in the securities of companies discussed in this document (or in related investments), may sell them to or buy them from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking or underwriting services for or relating to those companies and may also be represented in the supervisory board or any other committee of those companies. The information and opinions contained within the research reports are based upon publicly available information and rates of taxation applicable at the time of publication which are subject to change from time to time. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of any investment or income may go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount invested. Where an investment is denominated in a currency other than the local currency of the recipient of the research report, changes in the exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of that investment. In case of investments for which there is no recognised market it may be difficult for investors to sell their investments or to obtain reliable information about its value or the extent of the risk to which it is exposed. HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. accepts responsibility for the content of this research report prepared by its non-US foreign affiliate. All U.S. persons receiving and/or accessing this report and wishing to effect transactions in any security discussed herein should do so with HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. in the United States and not with its non-US foreign affiliate, the issuer of this report. In the UK this report may only be distributed to persons of a kind described in Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001. The protections afforded by the UK regulatory regime are available only to those dealing with a representative of HSBC Bank plc in the UK. In Singapore, this publication is distributed by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch for the general information of institutional investors or other persons specified in Sections 274 and 304 of the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289) (SFA) and accredited investors and other persons in accordance with the conditions specified in Sections 275 and 305 of the SFA. This publication is not a prospectus as defined in the SFA. It may not be further distributed in whole or in part for any purpose. The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Singapore Branch is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Recipients in Singapore should contact a Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch representative in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with this report. In Australia, this publication has been distributed by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited (ABN 65 117 925 970, AFSL 301737) for the general information of its wholesale customers (as defined in the Corporations Act 2001). Where distributed to retail customers, this research is distributed by HSBC Bank Australia Limited (AFSL No. 232595). These respective entities make no representations that the products or services mentioned in this document are available to persons in Australia or are necessarily suitable for any particular person or appropriate in accordance with local law. No consideration has been given to the particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. 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India Research Team

India
Banks Sachin Sheth Analyst +91 22 2268 1224 Tejas Mehta Analyst +91 22 2268 1243
Regional
Conglomerate and Transport Mark Webb Regional Head of Conglomerate and Transport Research +852 2996 6574 markwebb@hsbc.com.hk
sachinsheth@hsbc.co.in
Global
tejasmehta@hsbc.co.in Strategy Garry Evans Global Head of Equity Strategy +852 2996 6916 garryevans@hsbc.com.hk
Consumer & Retail Rajesh Kumar Singla Analyst +91 80 3001 3771 rajeshsingla@hsbc.co.in Healthcare Girish Bakhru Analyst +91 22 2268 1638
girishbakhru@hsbc.co.in
Industrials, Utilities Suman Guliani Analyst +91 80 3001 3747 sumanguliani@hsbc.co.in Tarun Bhatnagar Analyst +65 6239 0607 Rahul Garg Analyst +91 22 2268 1245
tarunbhatnagar@hsbc.com.sg
rahul1garg@hsbc.co.in
Infrastructure, Real Estate Ashutosh Narkar Analyst +91 22 2268 1474 ashutoshnarkar@hsbc.co.in IT Services Yogesh Aggarwal Analyst +91 22 2268 1246 Metals & Mining Jigar Mistry Analyst +91 22 2268 1079 Oil & Gas Kumar Manish Analyst +91 22 2268 1238 Puneet Gulati Analyst +91 22 2268 1235 Telecom Rajiv Sharma Analyst +91 22 2268 1239 Utilities Arun Kumar Singh Analyst +91 22 2268 1778 Equity Strategy Vivek Misra Strategist +91 80 3001 3699
yogeshaggarwal@hsbc.co.in
jigarmistry@hsbc.co.in
kmanish@hsbc.co.in
puneetgulati@hsbc.co.in
rajivsharma@hsbc.co.in
arun4kumar@hsbc.co.in
vivekmisra@hsbc.co.in

HSBC - India Property - Home Sales Still Slowing - Q1 Earnings Set To Disappoint

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HSBC - India Property - Home Sales Still Slowing - Q1 Earnings Set To Disappoint

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FIG India Real Estate

*As of 11 July 2011 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC research

-8% -20% 36% -44% 45% -21% 146%

Source: Company data, HSBC estimates

Source: PE Analytics, HSBC Research

Asiamoney 2011 starts 18 July Please vote for HSBC

FIG India Real Estate 14 July 2011

Q1 FY12 earnings preview

8,286 2,938 35% 1,800

10,542 1,685 16% 1,025

7,674 2,486 32% 1,436

-7% -15% -3% -20%

-27% 48% 16% 40%

Oberoi Realty Sales EBITDA EBITDA margin PAT

1,599 904 55% 798

2,668 1,736 59% 1,367

2,127 1,441 60% 1,089

33% 59% 5% 36%

-20% -17% 1% -20%

HDIL Sales EBITDA EBITDA margin PAT

4,851 4,205 87% 2,344

5,476 4,080 74% 1,973

3,750 3,188 85% 1,321

-23% -24% -2% -44%

-32% -22% 11% -33%

1,717 422 25% 206

5,611 995 18% 140

3,635 1,141 31% 298

112% 170% 7% 45%

-35% 15% 14% 113%

1,034 569 55% 458

634 455 72% 306

852 506 59% 361

-18% -11% 4% -21%

34% 11% -12% 18%

39,093 20,154 52% 9,692

53,632 17,480 33% 8,261

38,493 20,100 52% 8,270

1,018 230 23% 133

1,658 599 36% 402

1,563 539 35% 327

54% 134% 12% 146%

-6% -10% -2% -19%

Source: Company data, HSBC research

FIG India Real Estate 14 July 2011

Source: RBI, HSBC Research

Source: RBI, HSBC Research

Figure 8: Home loan rates Vs medium term deposit rates

6 4 2 Jul-09 Jul-11 Jul-01 Jul-05 Jul-07 Jul-03

Source: RBI, HSBC Research

Source: RBI, HSBC Research

500 400 (mn sq ft) 300 200 100

0 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11e CY12e

Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Research

Source: RBI, HSBC Research

FIG India Real Estate 14 July 2011

Figure 12: Mumbai City residential demand trend

Absorption (LHS) 5 4 (M n sq ft)

15 12 (M n sq ft) 9 6 3 Oct-09 Oc t-10 Apr-08 Apr-09 Oct-08 Apr-10 Apr-11

Figure 13: Gurgaon residential demand trend

Figure 14: Noida residential demand trend

10 8 (M n sq ft) 6 4 2 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-08 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-08 Apr-09