SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND THE COPENHAGEN SUMMIT ON CLIMATE CHANGE

by Jean FAULLIMMEL

Background The aim of the Copenhagen Summit was to reach an agreement to limit the world temperature increase to 2C by 2050. The non-legally binding measures resulting from the summit fell short of such target as developed and developing countries have different economic, environmental, social and political concerns. We know that today the world is facing serious climate change due to global warming: ice caps are melting and ocean level are rising, threatening all coastal regions of the world and islands in Pacific and Indian oceans. For 800,000 years the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere remained stable at below 300 ppm (parts per million). But since the industrial revolution 200 years ago, the CO2 concentration has slowly increased, reaching today a concentration of 375 ppm, and still rising. It represents an average world temperature increase of about 0.8 C. From 1960 to 2010 the CO2 annual emissions went from 9 billion MT (metric tons) to an estimation of almost 40 billion MT. This data alone indicates the urgency in stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions so that the earth can have time to recover from the environmental damage done so far. In the conditions of today, the atmosphere will keep about 45% of CO2, vegetation and soil humus will absorb about 30% of them, and oceans will absorb about 25%. Environmental impact A worldwide temperature increase of 2C represents an estimated CO2 concentration of 450 ppm. Today, because of an increase of only 0.8C, the Himalayas and the Andes mountain caps are already significantly affected bringing about faster ice melting than ever before, and leading to fresh water scarcity for the mountain population, and eventually affecting the population living in the plains. And the island population is already worried that their islands will disappear sooner or later as ocean levels are rising due to warmer waters. So today, in the context of what is already happening, the question we can ask ourselves is what will be the climate change with an average temperature increase of 2C or more. We dont know yet what will happen between 0.8C and 2.0C. But any further increase in temperature could set in motion changes that could significantly alter the climate of major regions of the world, and have important impacts on human and other living species. The figure below shows the different impacts of global warming:

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Carbon emissions in metric tons/year/inhabitants When we look at the present carbon emissions in number of metric tonnes per year, per inhabitants, we realize the technological challenges ahead. Today, worldwide, the emissions are around 4 MT/year/ inhabitant, the United States representing 20 MT/year/inhabitant, Europe 10 MT and China 4 MT. It is estimated that to stop global warming, the world CO2eq. release worldwide should only be 2 MT/year/inhabitant. This means that, in order to stabilize the temperature increase to no more than 2C, the US has to divide its emission by 10, Europe by 5, China by 2 and worldwide by 2 also. Today new emerging nations, if they dont invest in green technology and have better environmental laws, are going to emit more and more greenhouse gases to reach their economic objectives. Among these nations, China, the manufacturing hub of the world, with its huge population and a high GDP (growth domestic product), having neglected for too long the costly side effects of pollution, is indeed confronted with the greatest challenge. This can be reflected in the graph below showing comparative CO2 emissions between the US, China, India and Europe:

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Worldwide the background CO2 concentration is continuously increasing. Greenhouse gas monitoring stations around the world show a similar trend. The picture below shows the increasing CO2 concentration at Cape Point in South Africa over a period of 10 years between 1993 and 2002. Of course the developed countries are responsible for most of the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere, but the big developing countries cannot anymore do what the West did, that is, pollute and solve the pollution issues later. The reduction of greenhouse gas must be made today as tomorrow may be too late, reaching a point of no-return or when the climate change trend could become irreversible.

This clearly indicates that the world is not living a sustainable life style. If it were, the CO2 graph would be flat or have a negative slope. Today our planet lives above its means. It lives on the capital of slowly depleting natural resources. Our greenhouse gas emissions cannot any longer be absorbed by the environment (trees, soil and oceans), and thus adds more and more to the atmosphere as the rate of emissions is greater than their rate of absorption. Ocean acidification But that is not all. About 1/3 of the CO2 emitted is dissolved by the oceans. The consequence of it is an increasing acidification of oceans waters. In 2007 the planet released 26 billion MT of CO2 in the atmosphere. This means that almost 9 billion MT of CO2 has been dissolved by the oceans in one year, forming carboxylic acid, and subsequently increasing the waters acidity. The increasing acidity has an effect on the marine life such as clams, certain algae, shellfish and corals which need calcium fixation to develop. As a consequence of increasing acidity, during a recent analytical period of 10 years along the US Pacific coast from Alaska to California, it was observed a reduction of 30% of clams. In Australia, the calcium fixation in the Great Coral Reef has decreased by 21% in the last 16 years. In the Antarctic Ocean, because of its cold waters and winds, CO2 absorption is more favorable. A recent study over a period of 10 years showed an increasing dissolution of calcium. In this context, the question we have ask is what will happen to marine life if this trend continues until the critical atmospheric CO2 concentration of 450 ppm is reached? -3-

Deforestation Deforestation is also a big problem. The Earths forests are under pressure. Tropical forest are fast disappearing due mainly to logging, mining, hydropower, hunger for land for crop and cattle farming, and human settlement. Every year more than 8.5 million hectares of tropical rainforest are being cut. Forests are a large storage reservoir of carbon as 50% of its biomass is composed of it. It is interesting to notice that the decline and collapse of past civilizations is due to human manipulation of the eco-system. When societies collapsed it was mainly due to deforestation, leading to less rainfall, stretching water supplies to their limit and beyond, increasing droughts and soil erosion, and as a consequence leading to the formation of deserts. Forests stabilize the climate, prevent erosion, stores soil moisture and absorb CO2. By protecting the forest CO2 emissions are being prevented. It is estimated that between 15-25% of the greenhouse gases emitted yearly are a direct consequence of deforestation. Stopping deforestation has therefore become a major issue in stabilizing global warming and climate change. World population Our planet is changing and many environmental indicators have moved outside their range of what has happened in the past 800,000 years. We have made great technological progress. Life expectancy and living standards have increased for many, and the population has grown to six billion in 1999. It will reach 7 billion in 2011, just 12 years after reaching 6 billion. The population continues to grow and is expected to reach 10 billion by 2050. The global economy has increased 15-fold since 1950 and this progress has begun to affect the planet and how it functions. By 2050, economists predict that the global economy may expand by a factor of five. Manufacturing, consumption, housing, farmland, pollution and waste run parallel with the population increase, all at the cost of the ecosystem. When will the population growth stabilize to give our planet a chance of survival? Transfer of technology and know-how It is understandable that most of the developing countries do not have the know-how, or the financial strength to invest in green technology to reduce their pollution. To solve this issue there must be a sharing of know-how and transfer of technology to make manufacturing processes and burning of fossil fuel more efficient. This transfer should concern the countries were greenhouse gas emissions are the most significant. Very poor countries may not yet understand the need to reduce their emissions as their waste generation is very low, and their people are more concerned about how to survive on a daily basis, rather than environmental issues. But global warming concerns every citizen of the world, and every country, rich or poor. Human ingenuity, creativity and adaptation are important criteria to confront the climate change threat. Breakthroughs in technologies and resource management that will affect economic sectors and lifestyles are required. First, to reverse the trend of global warming, it is important to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions and reach a balance between the rate of

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emission and rate of absorption. This can be achieved by depending more on renewable energy, such as wind, solar, ocean currents, geothermal heat, hydropower, bio-fuel. rather than non-renewable such as fossil fuel. By investing in environmental projects, benefits can only be seen in the long-term, while investing in economic development usually brings short-term benefits. Although investing in economic projects is financially more attractive, environmental issues cannot be ignored in economic decisions. Environmental accounting is an integrated part of Sustainable Development. Conclusion Today, because of a market economy, consumerism, and the greed of human nature for more and more, our planet lives an unsustainable lifestyle. The side-effects of such lifestyle are waste and pollution. Our material-dominated society consumes about 10 MT of raw materials per person per year in the production of consumer goods. For every ton of waste we produce in our homes, it is estimated that 5 tons of waste has already been created at the manufacturing stage, and 20 tons at the point where the raw material was extracted. And not counting the additional waste associated with the different stages of production. The 2006 Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change states that: If the world does pollution prevention, ecological risks represents 1% of the GDP. If the world neglects investment in pollution prevention, the cost to repair the damages done on the ecosystem and human health can become as high as 4-6% of the GDP. Prevention is cheaper than waiting for further deterioration of the ecosystem and human health. There must be a balance between economic and environmental development. Both are interdependent. Incremental change will not prevent climate change, water depletion, deforestation or biodiversity loss. Today an international framework is essential for addressing global change. If we cannot develop appropriate laws and regulations to stop further damage of our ecosystem, and are unable to cope with this change, the consequences may be significant for the survival of mankind. Never before has a multilateral system of cooperation between nations, been so much needed. The outcome of the Copenhagen summit is not satisfactory, but it is a first step for our planet to gain greater environmental awareness and to act responsibly. It is time for our political leaders to stress on the importance of Environmental Education and to develop an international environmental culture. Only ignorance can prevent us from contributing to climate change mitigation. Today planet Earth lives on the capital of its natural resources, rather than on its interests. If this trend continues, sooner or later, there will be nothing or little left for future generations, creating conflicts between nations. From the perspective of space, political, geographical, nationalistic, cultural and religious differences do seem insignificant. Humanity shares the same home, it is fragile, keep it clean, and protect it.
JF/05/01/2010

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