By Rakesh

Page |1
PROJECT TITLE
INDIA
FAR FROM ITS DEVELOPMENT
Department of statistics
THE UNIVERSITY OF BURDWAN
Submitted By
Roll no:-BUR ST 2009/13
Page |2
Registration no:-478 of 2009-10
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
In order to get us acquainted with the applications in statistics, the

Department of Statistics, University of Burdwan has introduced project work
to be carried out by each student for the M.Sc. Semester-4 exam. I have
been carrying out my project work to find the causal factor of diabetes under
the supervision of my teacher Dr. Arindam Gupta of our department.
In this respect, with a deep sense of gratitude I acknowledge my all teachers,
Department of Statistics, Burdwan University under whose active guidance I
have performed my project work.
I also convey my best regards to all the teachers and other non-teaching
members of our department.
I would like to thank all my friends for their hearty co-operation.
Date.
Department of Statistics.
Burdwan University.
Page |3
Introduction: Though we all say that INDIA our country is developing

now but if is far away from its destination in respect of other G8 countries &
its big competitor CHINA. In this project I will show that how India is differ
from other countries.
1. Data Description:
2. Objective: To find the hidden causes of difference between the G8 countries
,China & India in respect of different health related factor & in case of GDP.
3. Sources:
United Nations Population Division. 2009. World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision.
New York, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (advanced Excel tables),
Census reports and other statistical publications from national statistical offices,
Eurostat: Demographic Statistics,
Secretariat of the Pacific Community: Statistics and Demography Program me, and
U.S. Census Bureau: International Database.)
(http://www.who.int/immunization_monitoring/routine/en/).
4. Description of factors & countries: Here total 8 countries are considered as

emerging & developing economies according to the International Monetary
Funds World Economic Outlook Report, April 2010. The countries are ----------Emerging Countries
China, India.
Developing economic countries

Canada, France, Italy, Japan, United
kingdom, United States.
Here the variable under consideration is

1. gdp per person employed constant 1990 ppp dollars
2. Labor force total
3. Birth rate crude per 1000 people
Page |4
4. Death rate crude per 1000 people
5. Immunization dpt percentage of children ages 12-23 months
6. Life expectancy at birth total years
7. Population growth annual percentage
8. Rural population (% of total population)
9. Urban population(% of total population)
Development
Health
Population
GDP per person

employed
constant
1990 ppp
dollars
Immunization dpt
percentage
of children
ages 12-23
months
Birth rate crude per

1000 people
Labor force total
Life expectancy at
birth total
years
Death rate crude

per 1000
people
Population growth
annual
percentage
Rural population (% of
total population)
Urban population(% of
total population)
Page |5
5.
METHODOLOGY
First I plot the death rate in respect of immunization for different countries for
different years.
Page |6
Page |7
Findings:
In case of china at first life expectancy will rise as immunization increase and
after that life expectancy will certainly decreases. There from the graph we
see in case of china there is presence of autocorrelation i.e. there are some
other factor which influence on the life expectancy.
In case of India there is also presence of autocorrelation & one thing is

notable that if immunization level is at 70 then life expectancy is at high level
at 65 after that life expectancy will decreases.
In case G8 countries all the countries have presence of autocorrelation

except Japan.
To see the changes of death rate & life expectancy considering the
immunization I have plotted the Death rate crude Per 1000 people
vs. Life Expectancy for each countries. Here I have considered three
group of countries. Three groups are taken such that -------------
Page |8
Immunization lies between 70 to 85
Immunization level below 70
Immunization level greeter then 85
In the first group of countries we see observations of China & Japan are in a
scattered shape.
In the second group we see that in India, life expectancy is increasing though
death rate per 1000 people is more or less same.
Page |9
In the third group of countries we see that those countries have

immunization rate greeter then 85, in case of G8 countries observations are
in random pattern except United States & United Kingdom.
Now we are going to use the Principal Component Analysis (PCA)
Definition of PCA: Principal Components Analysis is a method that reduces data
dimensionality by performing a covariance analysis between factors. As such,
it is suitable for data sets in multiple dimensions, such as a large experiment
in gene expression. Lets take an example that illustrates how PCA works with
a microarray experiment:
P a g e | 10
At this point, it is helpful to recall that the goal of a PCA is to explain the variability
in a set of observed measures through as few as possible linear combinations
of them, which combinations are the principal components.
For example, suppose the following np matrix
P a g e | 11
First we use PCA for India

Correlations
Birth_ra
te
Birth_rate
Population Death_R Immuniza Life_Expecte

Growth
ate
tion
ncy
0.97240775 0.969659 -0.0186977

91
-0.9978552
Population_Gr
owth
0.972407
75
1 0.968998 -0.1458039
43
-0.9790156
Death_Rate
0.969659
91
0.96899843
Immunization
0.018697
7
-0.1458039
1 -0.1856009
0.185600
9
-0.9741803
0.06072412
P a g e | 12
Correlations
Birth_ra
te
Population Death_R Immuniza Life_Expecte

Growth
ate
tion
ncy
Life_Expectenc
y
0.997855
2
-0.9790156
0.974180
3
0.0607241
2
Labour_Force
0.994725
4
-0.9856297
0.975669
8
0.0974756
0.99833819
Ruralpercenta
ge
0.996574
8
0.97964615 0.974315 -0.0832094

11
-0.9994813
-0.9796462
0.99948133
Urbanpercenta
ge
0.996574
8
0.974315
1
0.0832093
9
Correlations
Labour_Fo Ruralpercen Urbanpercen
rce
tage
tage
Birth_rate
-0.9947254
0.9965748
-0.9965748
Population_Gr
owth
-0.9856297
0.97964615
-0.9796462
Death_Rate
-0.9756698
0.97431511
-0.9743151
0.0974756
-0.0832094
0.08320939
Life_Expectenc 0.99833819
y
-0.9994813
0.99948133
Labour_Force
-0.9990989
0.99909885
-0.9990989
-1
Urbanpercenta 0.99909885
ge
-1
Immunization
Ruralpercenta
ge
P a g e | 13
Eigenvalues of the Correlation Matrix:
Total = 8 Average = 1
Eigenval
ue
Differen Proporti Cumulat

ce
on
ive
1 6.929682 5.921589
36
48
0.8662
0.8662
2 1.008092 0.976501
88
52
0.1260
0.9922
3 0.031591 0.003287
36
22
0.0039
0.9962
4 0.028304 0.026736
13
30
0.0035
0.9997
5 0.001567 0.000975
83
64
0.0002
0.9999
6 0.000592 0.000422
19
94
0.0001
7 0.000169 0.000169
25
25
0.0000
Ruralpercenta 0.9982 0.03064
ge
3
0.0000
1.0000
8 0.000000
00
2 factors will be retained by the

MINEIGEN criterion.
Factor
1.0000Pattern
Factor
1 Factor2
1.0000
Birth_rate
0.9941 0.09479
3
Population_Gr
owth
0.9871
8 0.03616
Death_Rate
0.9837
5 0.07765
Life_Expectenc
y
0.9977 0.05293
6
Urbanpercenta
ge
0.9982 0.03064
3
Labour_Force
0.9989 0.01599
5
Immunization
- 0.99340
0.1128
5
P a g e | 14
Eigenvectors
1
Birth_rate
0.3776
5
0.0944
1
Population_Gr
owth
0.3750
1
0.0360
1
Death_Rate
0.3737
0
0.0773
4
Immunization
0.0428
7
0.9894
0
Life_Expectenc
y
0.3790
3
0.0527
2
Labour_Force
0.3794
8
0.0159
2
Ruralpercenta
ge
0.3792
1
0.0305
2
Urbanpercenta
ge
0.3792
1
0.0305
2
Conclusion: Here we can construct two liner

combinations
First liner combination is

Y1 = 0.99823*Rural percentage + 0.99413*Birth_rate +
0.98718*Population_Gro
wth + 0.98375*
Variance Explained
Death_Rate - 0.99776*
by Each Factor
Life_Expectency
Factor1
Factor2
6.92968
24
1.0080929
P a g e | 15
-0.99823* Urbanpercentage-0.99895* Labour_Force-0.11285*
Immunization
Second liner combination is

Y2= 0.03064*Rural percentage + 0.09479*Birth_rate
-0.03616*Population_Growth -0.07765*
Death_Rate -0.05293*
Life_Expectency -0.03064* Urbanpercentage-0.01599*
Labour_Force+0.99340* Immunization
Here we will see that first principal component explain the total 86.82%
information & with this second principal component explains the 99.22%
information & corresponding eigen values are positive & greater then 1.
Another thing is that factor 1 explains total 69.26% information about this
variable & where as second principal component explains near about 10%
information.
For China:
P a g e | 16
Correlations
Birth
rate
Death Immuniza
Rate
tion
Life
Expectancy
0.99568447 0.111645 -0.0669033

48
-0.9900038
Population_Gr
owth
0.995684
47
1 0.055276 -0.0859809
94
-0.9938804
Death_Rate
0.111645
48
0.05527694
0.6969124
2
-0.0309305
Immunization
0.066903
3
-0.0859809 0.696912
42
0.09690177
Birth_rate
Population
Growth
Life_Expectenc
y
0.990003
8
-0.9938804
0.030930
5
0.0969017
7
Labour_Force
0.986750
2
-0.9930929
0.005373
2
0.1080104
6
0.99943335
Ruralpercenta
ge
0.977366
38
0.98775912
- -0.1717671
0.061428
3
-0.9946585
Urbanpercenta
ge
0.977366
4
-0.9877591 0.061428
35
0.1717671
1
0.99465851
Correlations
rce
tage
tage
Birth_rate
-0.9867502
0.97736638
-0.9773664
Population_Gr
owth
-0.9930929
0.98775912
-0.9877591
Death_Rate
-0.0053732
-0.0614283
0.06142835
Immunization
0.10801046
-0.1717671
0.17176711
y
-0.9946585
0.99465851
P a g e | 17
Correlations
rce
tage
tage
Labour_Force
-0.9970516
0.99705156
-0.9970516
-1
ge
-1
Ruralpercenta
ge

Eigenval Differen Proport Cumulati
ue
ce
ion
ve
1 5.974051 4.266020
01
20
0.7468
0.7468
2 1.708030 1.407859
81
90
0.2135
0.9603
3 0.300170 0.286016
91
27
0.0375
0.9978
4 0.014154 0.011322
63
14
0.0018
0.9996
5 0.002832 0.002138
49
68
0.0004
0.9999
6 0.000693 0.000627
81
48
0.0001
1.0000
7 0.000066 0.000066
33
33
0.0000
1.0000
8 0.000000
00
0.0000
1.0000
2 factors will be retained by the MINEIGEN criterion.
P a g e | 18
Eigenvectors
1
Birth_rate
Variance Explained
2 by Each Factor
Factor1
- 0.0792
0.4049
5.974051
5
8
0
Population_Gr
owth
- 0.0476
0.4073
7
0
Death_Rate
0.0015 0.7092
7
4
Immunization
0.0577 0.6959
2
0
Factor2
1.7080308
y
0 0.0325
6
Labour_Force
Ruralpercenta
ge
0.4085
7 0.0171
4
0.4080 0.0374
8
1
Urbanpercenta 0.4080 0.0374

ge
8
1

combinations
Factor Pattern
Factor Factor
1
2
Labour_Force
0.9986
1
0.0224
0
y
1
0.0425
5
ge
1
0.0488
9
Birth_rate
0.9898
4
0.1035
8
Population_Gr
owth
0.9955
1
0.0623
1
Ruralpercenta
ge
0.9974
1
0.0488
9
Death_Rate
0.0038
4
0.9269
1
Immunization
0.1410
8
0.9094
8
P a g e | 19

Y1 = -0.99741*Rural percentage -0.98984*Birth_rate
-0.99551*Population_Growth +0.00384*
Death_Rate +0.99821*
Life_Expectency +0.99741*
Urbanpercentage+0.99861*Labour_Force+0.14108* Immunization

Y2= -0.04889*Rural percentage +0.10358*Birth_rate
+0.06231*Population_Growth +0.92691*
Life_Expectency +0.04889* Urbanpercentage-0.02240*
information & corresponding eigen values are positive & greater than 1.
variable & where as second principal component explains near about 17.08%
information.
P a g e | 20
For Canada:
Correlations
Birth_ra
te
Population_Gr Death_R Immuniza Life_Expecte

owth
ate
tion
ncy
Birth_rate
1.00000
0.65862
-0.37488
-0.53213
-0.84769
Population_Gr
owth
0.65862
1.00000
-0.25296
-0.33260
-0.34934
Death_Rate
-0.37488
-0.25296
1.00000
0.14433
0.20530
Immunization
-0.53213
-0.33260
0.14433
1.00000
0.70055
Life_Expectenc -0.84769
y
-0.34934
0.20530
0.70055
1.00000
Labour_Force
-0.78267
-0.27643
0.15269
0.71838
0.98903
Ruralpercenta
ge
0.93172
0.48064
-0.25329
-0.67610
-0.97270
Urbanpercenta -0.93172
ge
-0.48064
0.25329
0.67610
0.97270
Correlations
rce
tage
tage
Birth_rate
-0.78267
0.93172
-0.93172
Population_Gr
owth
-0.27643
0.48064
-0.48064
Death_Rate
0.15269
-0.25329
0.25329
Immunization
0.71838
-0.67610
0.67610
Life_Expectenc
y
0.98903
-0.97270
0.97270
Labour_Force
1.00000
-0.94495
0.94495
Ruralpercenta
ge
-0.94495
1.00000
-1.00000
P a g e | 21
Correlations
rce
tage
tage
Urbanpercenta
ge
0.94495
-1.00000

Eigenval
ue

ce
on
ive
1 5.576307 4.475758
97
75
0.6970
0.6970
2 1.100549 0.360242
21
71
0.1376
0.8346
3 0.740306 0.246397
50
45
0.0925
0.9271
4 0.493909 0.421098
05
09
0.0617
0.9889
5 0.072810 0.061028
96
80
0.0091
0.9980
6 0.011782 0.007448
16
01
0.0015
0.9995
7 0.004334 0.004334
15
15
0.0005
1.0000
8 0.000000
00
0.0000
1.0000
1.00000
P a g e | 22
Eigenvectors
1
Birth_rate
- 0.2118
0.3945
1
5
Population_Gr
owth
- 0.5292
0.2300
6
8
Death_Rate
0.1328
6 0.7187
9
Immunization
0.3152 0.2008
2
7
Life_Expectenc 0.4084 0.1897

y
7
3
Labour_Force
0.3964 0.2726
2
2
Ruralpercenta
ge
0.4185 0.0620
6
6
Factor Pattern
Factor Factor
1
2
ge
9
0.0651
1
y
6
0.1990
4
Labour_Force
0.9361
2
0.2860
0
Immunization
0.7443
7
0.2107
2
Birth_rate
0.9316
9
0.2222
0
Ruralpercenta
ge
0.9883
9
0.0651
1
Population_Gr
owth
Variance Explained
by Each Factor
Death_Rate
Factor1
Factor2
0.5433
3
0.5552
3
0.3137
5
0.7540
6
Urbanpercenta 0.4185 0.0620

ge
6
6
Conclusion: Here we can construct two
liner combinations

Y1 = -0.98839*Rural percentage
-0.93169*Birth_rate
-0.54333*Population_Growth +
5.5763080 1.1005492
P a g e | 23
0.31375*
Death_Rate + 0.96456* Life_Expectency +0.98839*
Urbanpercentage+0.93612* Labour_Force+0.74437* Immunization

Y2 =-0.06511*Rural percentage +0.22220*Birth_rate
+0.55523*Population_Growth -0.75406*
Death_Rate + 0.19904*
Life_Expectency+ 0.06511* Urbanpercentage+0.28600*
variable & where as second principal component explains near about
11.005% information.
For France:
P a g e | 24
Correlations
Birth
rate
Population
Growth
Death Immuniza
Rate
tion
Life
Expectancy
0.19045108
- -0.0502327
0.163276
6
0.10109229
Population_Gr
owth
0.190451
08
Death_Rate
0.163276
6
-0.4432427
Immunization
0.050232
7
0.47397151
0.530146
4
0.87629617
y
29
0.760789
0.698696
0.8762961
7
0.682066
Birth_rate
0.443242
7
0.4739715
1
0.760789
1 -0.5301464
-0.698696
Labour_Force
0.098017
8
0.82528718
0.8326272
5
0.98265336
Ruralpercenta
ge
0.104538
3
-0.7750252 0.609769 -0.8821888

75
-0.9878581
ge
26
0.7750252
0.609769
8
0.8821888
1
0.98785807
Correlations
rce
tage
tage
Birth_rate
0.0980178
-0.1045383
0.10453826
0.82528718
-0.7750252
0.7750252
-0.682066
0.60976975
-0.6097698
0.83262725
-0.8821888
0.88218881
y
-0.9878581
0.98785807
Population_Gr
owth
Death_Rate
Immunization
P a g e | 25
Correlations
rce
tage
tage
Labour_Force
-0.9819052
0.98190522
-0.9819052
-1
ge
-1
Ruralpercenta
ge

Eigenval
ue

ce
on
ive
1 5.829640 4.772367
27
00
0.7287
0.7287
2 1.057273 0.462448
27
07
0.1322
0.8609
3 0.594825 0.144818
21
68
0.0744
0.9352
4 0.450006 0.398119
53
54
0.0563
0.9915
5 0.051886 0.040788
99
85
0.0065
0.9980
6 0.011098 0.005828
14
54
0.0014
0.9993
7 0.005269 0.005269
60
60
0.0007
1.0000
8 0.000000
00
0.0000
1.0000
P a g e | 26
Eigenvectors
Factor Pattern
0.0538
7
0.9390
4
Population_Gr
owth
0.3306
2
0.1757
4
Death_Rate
0.2925
1
Immunization
Birth_rate
Factor Factor
1
2
Life_Expectenc
y
0.9940
2 0.0361
8
0.1343
2
Labour_Force
0.9922
5 0.0186
0
0.3590
4
0.2529
9
ge
7 0.0442
5
y
9
0.0351
8
Immunization
0.8669
0 0.2601
3
Labour_Force
0.0180
9
Population_Gr
owth
0.7982 0.1807
7
0
Death_Rate
0.7062 0.1381
5
1
Ruralpercenta
ge
- 0.0442
0.9880
5
7
Birth_rate
0.1300 0.9655
6
6
Ruralpercenta
ge
0.4109
6
0.4092
3
0.0430
4
ge
3
0.0430
4

liner combinations

Y1 = -0.98807*Rural percentage + 0.13006*Birth_rate +
0.79827*Population_Growth -0.70625*
Life_Expectency
+0.98807*
Variance Explained by
Urbanpercentage+0.9
Each Factor
9225*
Factor1
Factor2
Labour_Force+0.86690
* Immunization
5.8296403
1.0572733
P a g e | 27
Y2= 0.04425*Rural percentage +0.96556*Birth_rate
Life_Expectency -0.04425* Urbanpercentage-0.01860* Labour_Force0.26013* Immunization
information.
For Italy:
P a g e | 28
Correlations
Birth_ra
te

owth
ate
tion
ncy
Birth_rate
1.00000
0.43653
-0.35516
0.15466
-0.02767
Population_Gr
owth
0.43653
1.00000
0.08599
0.23929
0.76261
-0.35516
0.08599
1.00000
-0.06429
0.24502
0.15466
0.23929
-0.06429
1.00000
-0.00729
y
0.76261
0.24502
-0.00729
1.00000
Labour_Force
0.55002
0.89418
0.08796
0.19730
0.77348
Ruralpercenta
ge
-0.07121
-0.81498
-0.24408
-0.09571
-0.98421
Urbanpercenta
ge
0.07121
0.81498
0.24408
0.09571
0.98421
Death_Rate
Immunization
Correlations
rce
tage
tage
Birth_rate
0.55002
-0.07121
0.07121
Population_Gr
owth
0.89418
-0.81498
0.81498
Death_Rate
0.08796
-0.24408
0.24408
Immunization
0.19730
-0.09571
0.09571
Life_Expectenc
y
0.77348
-0.98421
0.98421
Labour_Force
1.00000
-0.84026
0.84026
Ruralpercenta
ge
-0.84026
1.00000
-1.00000
Urbanpercenta
ge
0.84026
-1.00000
1.00000
P a g e | 29
Eigenval
ue
Differen Proporti Cumulativ

ce
on
e
1 4.612374 2.981094
98
04
0.5765
0.5765
2 1.631280 0.697792
94
79
0.2039
0.7805
3 0.933488 0.283256
15
89
0.1167
0.8971
4 0.650231 0.514889
26
26
0.0813
0.9784
5 0.135342 0.105971
01
57
0.0169
0.9953
6 0.029370 0.021458
43
21
0.0037
7 0.007912 0.007912
22
22
Factor
0.9990 Pattern
Factor Factor
1
2
1.0000
0.0010
ge
4
0.0000
1.0000
8 0.000000
00

MINEIGEN criterion.
0.1807
3
y
5
0.2751
4
Labour_Force
0.9337
0
0.2685
7
Population_Gr
owth
0.9152
2
0.2250
7
Ruralpercenta
ge
- 0.1807
0.9708
3
4
Birth_rate
0.2705
3
0.8505
5
Immunization
0.1690
4
0.3970
3
Death_Rate
0.2094
6
0.6974
2
P a g e | 30
Eigenvectors
1
Birth_rate
0.1259
6
0.6659
4
Population_Gr
owth
0.4261
5
0.1762
2
Death_Rate
0.0975
3
0.5460
5
Immunization
0.0787
1
0.3108
6
y
7
0.2154
2
Labour_Force
0.4347
5
0.2102
7
Ruralpercenta
ge
0.4520
5
0.1415
0
ge
5
0.1415
0
combinations

Y1 = -0.97084*Rural percentage + 0.27053*Birth_rate +
0.91522*Population_Growth + 0.20946*
Life_Expectency +0.97084* Urbanpercentage+0.93370*
Second liner combination
is
Y2 = 0.18073*Rural
percentage +
0.85055*Birth_rate
Each Factor
Factor1
4.6123750
Factor2
1.6312809
P a g e | 31
Life_Expectency -0.18073* Urbanpercentage+0.26857*
information.
For Japan:
Correlations
Birth_ra
te
Birth_rate
1.00000

owth
ate
tion
ncy
0.92534
-0.90576
-0.56983
-0.88567
P a g e | 32
Correlations
Birth_ra
te
Population_Gr
owth

owth
ate
tion
ncy
0.92534
1.00000
-0.80518
-0.61445
-0.83360
Death_Rate
-0.90576
-0.80518
1.00000
0.50950
0.94337
Immunization
-0.56983
-0.61445
0.50950
1.00000
0.58974
y
-0.83360
0.94337
0.58974
1.00000
Labour_Force
-0.12281
-0.02699
0.26533
-0.34047
0.33058
Ruralpercenta
ge
0.89328
0.79478
-0.95790
-0.47859
-0.97631
ge
-0.79478
0.95790
0.47859
0.97631
Correlations
rce
tage
tage
Birth_rate
-0.12281
0.89328
-0.89328
Population_Gr
owth
-0.02699
0.79478
-0.79478
0.26533
-0.95790
0.95790
-0.34047
-0.47859
0.47859
Life_Expectenc
y
0.33058
-0.97631
0.97631
Labour_Force
1.00000
-0.43386
0.43386
Ruralpercenta
ge
-0.43386
1.00000
-1.00000
Urbanpercenta
ge
0.43386
-1.00000
1.00000
Death_Rate
Immunization
P a g e | 33
Eigenval
ue

ce
on
ive
1 5.940154 4.505932
61
84
0.7425
0.7425
2 1.434221 1.085418
78
25
0.1793
0.9218
3 0.348803 0.166956
53
44
0.0436
0.9654
4 0.181847 0.126880
08
49
0.0227
0.9881
5 0.054966 0.024398
59
30
0.0069
0.9950
6 0.030568 0.021130
30
19
0.0038
0.9988
7 0.009438 0.009438
11
11
0.0012
1.0000
8 0.000000
00
0.0000
1.0000
P a g e | 34
Eigenvectors
1
Birth rate
0.3896
4
0.0988
4
Population
Growth
0.3658
8
0.1989
3
Death Rate
0.3951
4
0.0429
0
Immunization
0.2491
3
0.5528
2
Life
Expectancy
0.4027
4
0.0486
7
Labour Force
0.1130
7
0.7692
9
Rural
percentage
0.4007
1
0.1565
7
0.4007
1
0.1565
7
Urban
percentage

liner combinations

Y1 -0.97662*Rural
percentage
-0.94965*Birth_rate
-0.89174*Population_G
rowth + 0.96305*
Factor Pattern
Factor Factor
1
2
y
7
0.0582
9
ge
2
0.1875
1
Death_Rate
0.9630
5
0.0513
8
Population_Gr
owth
- 0.2382
0.8917
3
4
Birth_rate
- 0.1183
0.9496
7
5
Ruralpercenta
ge
0.9766 0.1875
2
1
Labour_Force
Each Factor
Immunization
Factor1
Factor2
5.9401546
1.4342218
0.2755
8
0.9213
0
0.6071
8
0.6620
5
P a g e | 35
Death_Rate +0.98157* Life_Expectency +0.97662*
Urbanpercentage+0.27558*Labour_Force +0.60718* Immunization
Y2= -0.18751*Rural percentage + 0.11837*Birth_rate
+0.23823*Population_Growth +0.05138*
Life_Expectency +0.18751* Urbanpercentage+0.92130* Labour_Force
-0.66205* Immunization
information.
For United States:
P a g e | 36
Correlations
Birth_ra
te

owth
ate
tion
ncy
Birth_rate
1.00000
0.90932
0.48947
-0.84659
-0.82652
Population_Gr
owth
0.90932
1.00000
0.67836
-0.72240
-0.88435
Death_Rate
0.48947
0.67836
1.00000
-0.19973
-0.82964
-0.84659
-0.72240
-0.19973
1.00000
0.60050
y
-0.88435
-0.82964
0.60050
1.00000
Labour_Force
-0.90738
-0.92875
-0.74538
0.71727
0.98132
Ruralpercenta
ge
0.89601
0.94334
0.77842
-0.69884
-0.97983
ge
-0.94334
-0.77842
0.69884
0.97983
Immunization
Correlations
rce
tage
tage
Birth_rate
-0.90738
0.89601
-0.89601
Population_Gr
owth
-0.92875
0.94334
-0.94334
Death_Rate
-0.74538
0.77842
-0.77842
Immunization
0.71727
-0.69884
0.69884
Life_Expectenc
y
0.98132
-0.97983
0.97983
Labour_Force
1.00000
-0.99519
0.99519
Ruralpercenta
ge
-0.99519
1.00000
-1.00000
Urbanpercenta
ge
0.99519
-1.00000
1.00000
P a g e | 37
Eigenval
ue
Differen Proporti
ce
on
Cumulati
ve
1 6.791708 5.857499
64
25
0.8490
0.8490
2 0.934209 0.811389
39
13
0.1168
0.9657
3 0.122820 0.027552
26
65
0.0154
0.9811
4 0.095267 0.049057
61
50
0.0119
0.9930
5 0.046210 0.038040
12
42
0.0058
0.9988
6 0.008169 0.006555
70
41
0.0010
0.9998
7 0.001614 0.001614
28
28
0.0002
1.0000
8 0.000000
00
0.0000
1.0000
1 factor will be retained by the MINEIGEN criterion.
P a g e | 38
Eigenvectors
Factor Pattern
1
Birth_rate
0.35462
Factor
1
Urbanpercenta
ge
0.9957
1
Labour_Force
0.9930
8
Life_Expectenc
y
0.9677
6
y
Immunization
0.7439
5
Labour_Force
0.38106
Death_Rate
Ruralpercenta
ge
0.38207
0.7499
5
Birth_rate
0.9241
7
Population_Gr
owth
0.9571
1
Ruralpercenta
ge
0.9957
1
Population_Gr
owth
0.36726
Death_Rate
0.28777
Immunization
0.28547
ge
Conclusion: Here we can construct the liner combination.
Variance Explained by Each

Factor
Factor1
6.7917086
P a g e | 39
Y1 = -0.99571*Rural percentage -0.92417*Birth_rate
-0.95711*Population_Growth -0.74995*
Life_Expectency +0.99571* Urbanpercentage+0.99308* Labour_Force +
0.74395* Immunization
Here we will see that first principal component explain the total 84.90% information
& eigen value is positive & greater then 1.
variables.
For United Kingdom:

Correlations
Birth_ra
te
Birth_rate
Population_Gr
owth
Death_Rate
Immunization

owth
ate
tion
ncy
1.00000
-0.22428
0.45618
-0.17259
-0.52383
-0.22428
1.00000
-0.93436
-0.39017
0.92604
0.45618
-0.93436
1.00000
0.19475
-0.98137
-0.17259
-0.39017
0.19475
1.00000
-0.16345
P a g e | 40
Correlations
Birth_ra
te

owth
ate
tion
ncy
y
0.92604
-0.98137
-0.16345
1.00000
Labour_Force
-0.28063
0.98852
-0.93065
-0.40645
0.93326
Ruralpercenta
ge
0.63046
-0.87983
0.95484
0.13343
-0.98481
ge
0.87983
-0.95484
-0.13343
0.98481
Correlations
rce
tage
tage
Birth_rate
-0.28063
0.63046
-0.63046
0.98852
-0.87983
0.87983
Death_Rate
-0.93065
0.95484
-0.95484
Immunization
-0.40645
0.13343
-0.13343
Life_Expectenc
y
0.93326
-0.98481
0.98481
Labour_Force
1.00000
-0.90068
0.90068
Ruralpercenta
ge
-0.90068
1.00000
-1.00000
Urbanpercenta
ge
0.90068
-1.00000
1.00000
Population_Gr
owth

Eigenval
ue
Differen Proporti Cumulati

ce
on
ve
1 6.022322 4.680536
19
49
0.7528
0.7528
P a g e | 41
Eigenval
ue
Differen Proporti Cumulati

ce
on
ve
2 1.341785 0.775681
70
10
0.1677
0.9205
3 0.566104 0.523620
60
39
0.0708
0.9913
4 0.042484 0.028413
21
58
0.0053
0.9966
5 0.014070 0.006424
63
12
0.0018
0.9983
6 0.007646 0.002060
51
35
0.0010
0.9993
Factor Pattern
Factor Factor
1.00001
2
7 0.005586 0.005586
0.0007
16
16
8 0.000000
0.0000
1.00008
y
00
ge
0

Labour_Force
MINEIGEN criterion.
0.0623
9
0.1537
6
0.9543
8
0.2587
9
Population_Gr
owth
0.9413
3
0.2827
1
Death_Rate
0.9782
3
0.0001
7
Ruralpercenta
ge
0.9856
0
0.1537
6
Birth_rate
0.5263
5
0.6810
2
Immunization
0.2548
6
0.8245
8
P a g e | 42
Eigenvectors
1
Birth_rate
- 0.5879
0.2144
2
8
Population_Gr
owth
0.3835 0.2440
8
6
Death_Rate
0.3986 0.0001
2
5
Immunization
0.1038 0.7118
5
5
y
4 0.0538
6
Labour_Force
0.3889 0.2234
0
1
Ruralpercenta
ge
- 0.1327
0.4016
4
2
ge
2 0.1327
4
Conclusion: Here we can construct two liner combinations

Y1 = -0.98560*Rural percentage -0.52635*Birth_rate +
0.94133*Population_
Growth -0.97823*
Variance Explained by Each
Death_Rate
Factor
+0.99178*
Factor1
Factor2
Life_Expectency
6.0223222
1.3417857
P a g e | 43
+0.98560* Urbanpercentage+0.95438* Labour_Force-0.25486*
Immunization
Y2 = 0.15376*Rural percentage + 0.68102*Birth_rate
Life_Expectency -0.15376* Urbanpercentage+0.25879* Labour_Force0.82458* Immunization
Here we will see that first principal component explain the total 75.28% information
& with this second principal component explains the 92.05% information &
corresponding eigen values are positive & greater then 1.
Another thing is that factor 1 explains total 60.22% information about this variable
& where as second principal component explains near about 13.41% information.
Regression Analysis:
P a g e | 44
For India:
For understand the relationship between the variable we consider the

matrix plot, which is the diagram between the each variable under consideration
individually between two variables for each possible combination.
L INEAR REGRESSION MODEL:

The data consist n observations on a dependent variable Y & p independent
variableX1, X2,,Xp then the linear relationship between response variable(Y)
& p predictor variables is formulated as linear model
Y=0+1X1+2X2++pXp+
Where 0,1,,p are regression coefficients& is random disturbance or
error.
P a g e | 45
We may write the model equation in terms of the observations

yi =0+1xi1+2xi2++pxip+i
; i=1(1) n
7.1TESTING OF HYPOTHESIS IN A LINEAR MODEL:

Our null hypothesis: H0:j=j0 vs H1:jj0,where j0is chosen by
investigator. The test statistics is
(j^-j0)/s.e(j^)~tn-p-1
First model the life expectancy on various co-factors. The result is shown below
Here the first model for life-expectancy is shown below
Life.Expectency ~ Birth.rate + Population.Growth + Labour.Force
+ GDP + Urbanpercentage
Residuals:
Min
1Q
Median
-0.061357 -0.018017 -0.001179
3Q
Max
0.019070 0.033363
Coefficients:
Estimate
Std. Error
(Intercept)
***
4.211e+01
5.770e+00
Birth.rate
-1.807e-01
4.682e-02
Population.Growth
Labour.Force
GDP
**
Urbanpercentage
5.017e-01
2.946e-08
-2.566e-04
4.664e-01
4.650e-01
1.521e-08
8.102e-05
3.790e-01
--Signif. codes: 0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 * 0.05 . 0.1 1
t value
7.299
-3.860
1.079
1.937
-3.167
1.231
Pr(>|t|)
1.54e-05
0.00266 **
0.30367
0.07883 .
0.00897
0.24412
P a g e | 46
Residual standard error: 0.03107 on 11 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared:
0.9997
Adjusted R-squared:
F-statistic: 8226 on 5 and 11 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16
Therefore the model can be written as
Life.Expectency = 42.11 -0.1807*Birth.rate +0.5017*Population.Growth +

2.946e-08* Labour.Force +0.0002566*GDP +0.4664*Urbanpercentage
In below we see the residual vs fitted histogram plot & Normal qq plot
P a g e | 47
Conclusion:
Here Birth Rate& GDP is highly significant & they have negatively related with
Life expectancy.
Labour force may significant & have positively related with life expectancy.
Here Multiple correlation coefficient is very high.
The histogram plot of residual shows that it is negatively skewed distribution.
Now we model the gdp on various co-factors for India.

Modelling of GDP:
GDP ~ Labour.Force +
Ruralpercentage
Residuals:
Min
-223.58
1Q
Median
-84.23
18.28
3Q
68.08
Max
277.49
Coefficients:
(Intercept)
Labour.Force
Estimate
Std. Error
-1.339e+05
6.380e+04
-2.099
0.05445 .
7.610e-05
2.308e-05
3.297
0.00529 **
Ruralpercentage 1.516e+03
t value
7.586e+02
1.998
--Signif. codes: 0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 * 0.05 . 0.1 1

Multiple R-squared: 0.9854
Adjusted R-squared:
0.9833
Pr(>|t|)
0.06555 .
P a g e | 48
F-statistic: 471.8 on 2 and 14 DF, p-value: 1.427e-13

Here the model is
GDP =-133900+7.61e-05*Labour.Force +1516*
Ruralpercentage
In below we see the Residual vs. density plot for the gdp & Normal qq plot
Conclusion:
Labour force is highly significant with Gdp & have positively related with Gdp.
Rural percentage may have significant effect on gdp & it is also positively
related with gdp.
Residual plot of gdp shows that it is normally distributed.
Multiple correlation coefficient is high.
P a g e | 49
For China: For understand the relationship between the variable we consider
the matrix plot, which is the diagram between the each variable under
consideration individually between two variables for each possible combination.
P a g e | 50
Here we model the life expectency

Life.Expectency ~ Birth.rate + Population.Growth + Labour.Force + GDP +
Urbanpercentage
P a g e | 51
Residuals:
Min
1Q
-0.030548 -0.012751
Median
0.001812
3Q
0.009514
Max
0.028484
Coefficients:
Estimate
Std. Error
t value
Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept)
3.20e-11 ***
4.599e+01
1.772e+00
Birth.rate
0.37024
-2.986e-02
3.196e-02
Population.Growth
1.338e-01
Labour.Force
05 ***
GDP
0.00119 **
Urbanpercentage
0.01627 *
2.975e-08
-1.074e-04
1.258e-01
3.418e-01
4.272e-09
2.479e-05
4.441e-02
25.963
-0.934
0.392
6.964
0.70282
2.38e-
-4.334
2.833
--Signif. codes: 0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 * 0.05 . 0.1 1

Multiple R-squared:
0.9999
Adjusted
R-squared:
Here
The model
is
Life.Expectency ~=45.99+-0.02986*Birth.rate +0.1338* Population.Growth +
2.975e-08* Labour.Force +-0.0001074*GDP + 0.1258*Urbanpercentage
P a g e | 52
F-statistic: 2.026e+04 on 5 and 11 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16
Conclusion:
Here labour force is highly significant & they have positively related with
Life expectancy.
Gdp is also highly significant & have negatively related with life expectancy.
Here Multiple correlation coefficient is very high.
P a g e | 53
The histogram plot of residual shows that it is positively skewed distribution.
Modelling for gdp:

GDP ~ Labour.Force +
Residuals:
Min
-360.346
1Q
-189.430
Median
-5.045
3Q
153.007
Max
611.453
Coefficients:
Estimate
Std. Error
t value
Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept)
3.31e-07 ***
2.691e+05
2.984e+04
9.017
Labour.Force
06 ***
-1.864e-04
2.361e-05
-7.892
1.60e-
Ruralpercentage
08 ***
-2.006e+03
1.991e+02
-10.076
8.50e-
---
P a g e | 54
Signif. codes: 0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 * 0.05 . 0.1 1
Multiple R-squared:
0.9845
Here the model is
GDP =269100 -0.0001864*Labour.Force
F-statistic: 444.8 on 2 and 14 DF, p-value: 2.145e-13
Conclusion:
Labour force & Rural percentage is highly significant with Gdp & have
negatively related with Gdp.
Residual plot of gdp shows that it is positively skewed distributed.
Multiple correlation coefficient is high.
P a g e | 55
Overall discussion: From the PCA we see that for India cumulative proportion of
the two factors is high comparing to other countries. That is for India these factors
carry more information than another factors of remaining countries. Therefore we
conclude that there may have many other factors which are not considered in this
analysis for these countries (China, Canada, France, Italy, Japan, United States &
United Kingdom).
Another thing is that the for India variance explained by factors is greater
than other countries.
From Regression Analysis we can conclude the following things for India-
P a g e | 56
From histogram plot of Life expectancy we say that Life expectancy is
increasing for India.
If birth rate is decreasing then life expectancy is increasing.
If labour force increases than gdp is also increases.
If Urban percentage is increases than gdp is also increases.
References:
Regression analysis by example (3rd edition),Samprit
chatterjee,Alis.Hadi,Bertram Price, Welly interscience.
An Introduction to Applied Multivariate Analysis By Tenko Raykov, George A.
Marcoulides.
Applied Multivariate Statistical Analysis((2rd edition), By Hrdle Simar.
P a g e | 57
Applied Multivariate Statistical Analysis By DEAN W. WICHERN & RICHARD A.
JOHNSON.

By Rakesh

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Page |1

FAR FROM ITS DEVELOPMENT

Registration no:-478 of 2009-10

In order to get us acquainted with the applications in statistics, the

I would like to thank all my friends for their hearty co-operation.

Introduction: Though we all say that INDIA our country is developing

4. Description of factors & countries: Here total 8 countries are considered as

Developing economic countries

Here the variable under consideration is

GDP per person

Birth rate crude per

Labor force total

Death rate crude

In case of India there is also presence of autocorrelation & one thing is

In case G8 countries all the countries have presence of autocorrelation

Immunization lies between 70 to 85

Immunization level below 70

Immunization level greeter then 85

In the third group of countries we see that those countries have

First we use PCA for India

Population Death_R Immuniza Life_Expecte

0.97240775 0.969659 -0.0186977

Population Death_R Immuniza Life_Expecte

0.97964615 0.974315 -0.0832094

Differen Proporti Cumulat

2 factors will be retained by the

Conclusion: Here we can construct two liner

First liner combination is

Second liner combination is

0.99568447 0.111645 -0.0669033

Eigenvalues of the Correlation Matrix:

2 factors will be retained by the MINEIGEN criterion.

Urbanpercenta 0.4080 0.0374

Conclusion: Here we can construct two liner

First liner combination is

Second liner combination is

Population_Gr Death_R Immuniza Life_Expecte

Eigenvalues of the Correlation Matrix:

Differen Proporti Cumulat

2 factors will be retained by the MINEIGEN criterion.

Life_Expectenc 0.4084 0.1897

Urbanpercenta 0.4185 0.0620

First liner combination is

Second liner combination is

-0.7750252 0.609769 -0.8821888

Eigenvalues of the Correlation Matrix:

Differen Proporti Cumulat

2 factors will be retained by the MINEIGEN criterion.

Conclusion: Here we can construct two

First liner combination is

Population_Gr Death_R Immuniza Life_Expecte

Differen Proporti Cumulativ

2 factors will be retained by the

Conclusion: Here we can construct two liner

First liner combination is

Population_Gr Death_R Immuniza Life_Expecte

Population_Gr Death_R Immuniza Life_Expecte

Differen Proporti Cumulat

2 factors will be retained by the MINEIGEN criterion.

Conclusion: Here we can construct two

First liner combination is

For United States:

--Signif. codes: 0 * 0.001 0.01 * 0.05 . 0.1 1

Life.Expectency = 42.11 -0.1807Birth.rate +0.5017Population.Growth +

--Signif. codes: 0 * 0.001 0.01 * 0.05 . 0.1 1

--Signif. codes: 0 * 0.001 0.01 * 0.05 . 0.1 1