CLIMATE RISK ASSESSMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Pradeep Tharakan Asian Development Bank

Outline of Presentation:
1. How are Asian governments responding to climate change? 2. How do we go about evaluating climate risks to Asian communities? 3. What are the challenges we have faced in our ongoing studies? 4. What are the lessons learned?

Asia Tops Most Vulnerable to Climate Change List..

Developing Asia Has Begun to Respond..

Viet Nam Announces National Target Program on Climate Change Indonesia Announces Plans to Cut GHG by 26% by 2020 and up to 41% with international assistance.

ADB is supporting technical assistance to raise awareness, develop methodology, and develop action plans.

LESSONS LEARNED FROM DEVELOPING ASIA

Adaptation Pathway - addressing the adaptation deficit

Response to CLIMATE CHANGE - addressing additional threat ADAPTATION PATHWAY 1 Addressing the adaptation deficit 2 Reinforcing successful coping mechanisms and eliminating or adjusting those with negative impacts 3 Taking new high priority adaptation action

Response to CURRENT CLIMATE - Addressing ongoing development problems

Source: Jeremy Carew-Reid, 2011 (ICEM)

Action at any level will build resilience to climate change

AD AP TAT I O N DEFICIT

Response to CLIMATE VARIABILITY - addressing extreme weather events

Gradual Changes May Allow for Adaptation

Predicted Population Displacement in 2100 Predicted Inundation in Lower Mekong Areas in 2100 (1 m SLR)

Source: Carew-Reid, 2007 in Climate Change Adaptation in Lower Mekong Basin Countries, MRC, 2009

Sudden Extreme Events is the Problem

Source: ADB TA 7377 (ongoing), implemented by SKM

Quantifying climates effect on weather events at local level is challenging..

GCM outputs dont have a high enough resolution Uncertainty in climate change projections is higher for tropical and monsoonal regions Downscaling brings with it uncertainty

Climate Change, Massive Urbanization and Infrastructure Development

Dams on the upper Mekong will have a larger, near-term impact on regional hydrology than climate change. - Draining wetlands. - Development on flood plains.

Spatial Analysis Is Key

Acquiring relevant and high quality data is a huge challenge..

Hazard information, economic, statistical, demographic and insurance claims information Data not digitized Data scarcity can be overcome, but uncertainty tradeoff Data collection and refining can use up to 5065% of project resources

 Drought Emergency Events Database: http://www.emdat.be Storm Surges DIVA coastal vulnerability tool: http://diva.demis.nl/ Exposure Data Center for International Earth Science Information Networks (CEISIN) gridded population data sets and LANDSAT land use land cover dataset
Source: Ranger et al (2009).

Coordination among ministries and agencies, donors and (within donors) to both study climate risks and respond
Climate change response planning mandate given to

environment ministries that have difficulty convening other ministries. Needs effective coordination between energy, water, land resource, urban and environment ministries. Needs improved coordination between central ministries, local agencies and municipal authorities. Need for greater coordination among donors and within donors. ADB operational departments and cross cutting departments.

INTRODUCTION TO ONGOING WORK IN VIETNAM

ADB TA to Vietnam
Two target provinces - Mekong Delta provinces of Ca Mau and Kien Giang. The study involves: Identifying future climate conditions in the Mekong Delta; Assessing the effects of climate risks on agriculture, energy and transport sectors in the region; and Identifying adaptation options and pilot projects

ADBs Technical Approach

Review of Global Climate Models Regional Statistical Downscaling

Hydrological Model

Coastal Model

Vulnerability Assessment Risk Assessment

Hot Spots
Community Consultation

Adaptation Planning

Key Study Outputs

Risk Atlas:
1. Base maps (at the regional, provincial and district levels) for population, land use, topography, settlements and infrastructure; 2. Hazard maps for flooding, inundation and salinity; 3. District hazard maps, for all 23 districts highlighting sectoral exposure to hazards; 4. Vulnerability maps for population, poverty, agriculture and livelihoods, urban settlements and transport, industry and energy; 5. Risk maps, identifying geographic and sector hotspots; and 6. Adaptation planning maps.

TO CONCLUDE
Climate change effects are already evident and expected to magnify in the near-to-medium term. Climate risk evaluation needs to be made in the context of ongoing economic growth and infrastructure expansion CLIMATE RESPONSE IS SHORT HAND FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Basic hazard mapping at regional and national levels to provide consistent risk information needed. E.g. Global
Earthquake Model http:// www.globalquakemodel.org

Data problems can be overcome Strengthen local scientific and technical institutional capacity data hub for climate change and weather data Communication of risk and management of responses is key