Hello Garci, Election Fraud and NAMFREL Blinked!

Manuel A. Alcuaz, Jr.

I should have written this after the election last year. I did not because: I could not get regional and provincial breakdowns of NAMFRELs election count. NAMFREL and Church leaders whom I trusted declared that there was no massive fraud. The Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines (CBCP) through its President Fernando R. Capalla, DD. said in their statement on June 1 that, If there were reports of cheating locally or regionally, the bishops cannot say that there was massive cheating. As late as June 2005 Mr. Jose Concepcion said that NAMFREL records couldnt prove poll fraud. He added that Garcilliano was not among the COMELEC officials in charge of Mindanao. He even added that NAMFREL did a quick count in Tawitawi, We had the highest return in Tawi-tawi and I must say the result of the elections we got copies of the election returns was one of the best. I AM SORRY I made a mistake and this article is my confession. In the future I should be less trusting. There is a saying, That even the blind will see but he who does not want to see will never see. NAMFREL The National Citizens Movement for Free Elections (NAMFREL) is a non-partisan, nationwide organization of individuals and civic, religious, professional, business, labor, educational, youth, and non-government groups voluntarily working for the cause of free, orderly, and honest elections. While several hundred thousand NAMFREL members and volunteers have sacrificed time and money in order to make the 2004 elections free, orderly, and honest, NAMFREL leadership acted as agents of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. I would like to particularly commend the NAMFREL chapters in Basilan, Lanao del Sur, Sultan Kudarat, Lanao del Norte, Sulu, Tawi-tawi, Maguindanao, and Cotabato whose efforts at the risk of personal safety made it possible for NAMFREL records to demonstrate that massive fraud took place in their provinces. My analysis indicates a probable Dagdagr-Bawas of 598,560 votes as shown below. Basilan Sultan Kudarat Lanao del Sur Sulu Tawi-tawi Maguindanao Lanao del Norte Agusan del Norte Total

DagdagBawas 103,360 153,761 134,505 60,615 31,389 53,798 38,843 22,289 598,560

% 75.8 64.9 57.9 41.33 35.86 19.4 12.35 9.17

Total Voters 136,297 236,768 232,010 146,652 87,520 277,318 314,577 242,944

% is percentage dagdag-bawas relative to total number of votes canvassed by Congress. If we are to have honest elections in the future those who committed fraud must be identified and prosecuted. Why did Joe Concepcion ignore his provincial volunteers who reported frauds? This analysis draws from articles of Tony Abaya and Roberto Versola. But most interestingly I was guided by GMAs conversations with Garci. In every province they spoke about incredible dagdag-bawas was evident. Except in Cotabato where Garci and company were blocked by Atty. Vidol. HOW THE ANALYSIS WAS DONE? I did not analyze the results for all cities and provinces. Too time consuming. I used Verzolas list ranking provinces with the highest discrepancies and GMAs phonecalls to Garcilliano. For every province I used the COC based totals of Congress provided by the staff of a Senator who loves our country and NAMFRELs summary of ERs by province and city in their Terminal Report. I subtracted NAMFRELs final count from the Congressional Canvass for each province. This I call COC increment. I then computed the % of total votes for GMA and FPJ. You will note that the reversal in percentages is most glaring when you compare the NAMFREL % with the increment %. That is the smoke that signals the fraud that was committed. While I no longer trust the top leadership of NAMFREL I trust the hundreds of thousands of volunteers. There is little reason to believe that individual citizens would band to cheat the administration. I computed the total increment in votes between COC and NAMFREL canvass and multiplied it by the
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NAMFREL percentage of vote to compute the NAMFREL trend. I then subtracted the NAMFREL trend from the COC increment to get the dagdag for GMA and the bawas for FPJ to get the total dagdag-bawas in the province. There were a few other provinces in Mindanao where my computation (indicated dagdag-bawas of close to 10,000 votes). I ignored these since as a % of total votes it was less than 5%. For most other provinces the NAMFREL count was a good predictor of the Congressional Canvass. BASILAN LANAO DEL SUR While Basilan had a computed 103,360 dagdag-bawas as a percentage of total votes 75.8% was the highest.
Gary: Hello, maam. Good evening. GMA: Hello, dun sa Lanao del Sur at Basilan, di raw nagmamatch ang SOV sa COC. Gary: Ang sinasabi nya, nawawala na naman ho? GMA: Hindi na nag-match. Gary: Hindi na nag-mamatch?May posibilidad na hindi magmatch kung hindi nila sinunod yung individual SOV ng mga munisipyo. Pero aywan ko lang ho kung sa atin pabor o hindi. Dun naman sa Basilan at Lanao Sur, ito ho yung ginawa nilang magpataas sa inyo, maayos naman ang paggawa eh. GMA: So nag-mamatch? Gary: Oho, sa Basilan, alam nyo naman ang mga military dun eh, hindi masyadong marunong kasi silang gumawa eh. COC: NAMFREL:

GMA

POE

Total Voters

Total %

125,622 53% 20,143 20%

40,714 17% 236,768 100% 49,330 49% 100,367 42%

COC Increment:

105,479 77%

(8,616) 67,041 (75,657)

-6% 136,401

58%

NAMFREL Trend: 27,375 Dagdag Bawas: 78,104

Dagdag bawas = 153,761

Apparently the NAMFREL Chapter detected fraud and called a press conference.
GMA: Hello Garci? Anong gagawin natin dun sa NAMFREL presscon, yung NAMFREL Lanao del Sur.

Lanao del Surs computed dagdag-bawas 134,505 was the second highest.
GMA 158,74 8 32,389 % POE % Total Voters Total %

COC: NAMFREL:

68% 36%

50,107 22% 232,010 100% 42,374 47% 89,568 39%

While FPJ had 73% of the votes and GMA had 20% in the NAMFREL tally. The incremental votes in the COCs was 88% for GMA and 6% for FPJ.
GMA COC: NAMFREL: % POE % Total Voters Total % 100%

COC Increment: NAMFREL Trend: Dagdag Bawas: Dagdag bawas =

126,359 51,509 74,850 134,505

89%

7,733 5% 67,388 (59,655)

142,442

61%

79,702 58% 48,685 36% 136,297 12,162 20% 43,821 73% 59,647

SULU
44%

Sulu had a computed 60,615 dagdag-bawas 41.33% of total votes.

COC Increment: NAMFREL Trend: Dagdag Bawas: Dagdag bawas = 67,540 88% 15,629 51,911 103,359 4,864 56,312 (51,448) 6% 76,650 56% GMA: Hello, meron tayong ... (?) ... E.R.? para sa Sulu? Gary: Oo maam, meron po. GMA: Nagco-correspond ? Gary: Oo maam. Lahat ho meron, hindi po naming ikacount kung ... GMA: Ok, ok. Total Voters Total %

SULTAN KUDARAT Sultan Kudarat has the highest computed dagdag-bawas nd and the 2 highest % at 64.9% of total votes. Note that the final count for FPJ in the COC Canvass 40,714 was lower than his count by NAMFREL 49,330.
COC Increment: COC: NAMFREL:

GMA

POE

78,429 53% 23,896 32%

60,807 41% 45,740 61%

146,652 100% 74,511 51%

54,533 76%

15,067 21%

72,141

49%
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LANAO DEL NORTE

NAMFREL Trend: Dagdag Bawas: Dagdag bawas = 23,136 31,397 60,615 44,285 (29,218)

Garci and GMA had a long conversation about Lanao. Lanao del Norte only delivered 38,844 dagdag-bawas. But Norte and Sur combined delivered 177,389 dagdagbawas which is quite big. The following is the most damming conversation.

TAWI-TAWI In Tawi-tawi the computed dagdag-bawas was 31,389 or 35.86% of total votes.
Sa tawi-tawi, eh baka na raw ako ang matalo doon Gary : Baka nga ho (line faded, cut) GMA: Hello... Gary: Hello, maam, good morning. Ok maam, mas mataas ho siya pero mag-compensate po sa Lanao yan. GMA: So I will still lead by more than one M., overall? Gary: More or less, its the advantage maam. Parang ganun din ang lalabas. GMA: It cannot be less than one M.? Gary: Pipilitin maam natin yan. Pero as of the other day, 982. GMA: Kaya nga eh... Gary: And then if we can get more in Lanao.. GMA: Hindi pa ba tapos? Gary: Hindi pa ho, meron pa hong darating na seven municipalities. GMA: Ah ok, ok. Total Voters 288,169 26,408 Total % 92% 8%

Garci and company really went to town in dagdag-bawas to make sure GMA would not lose. Note the increment between the COC canvass was only 9,553 votes but GMA gained 17,709 and FPJ lost 8,489. Hey Joe what did you say about Tawi-tawi?
GMA COC: NAMFREL: 33,634 15,925 % 38% 20% POE 49,803 58,292 % 57% 75% Total Total Voters %

GMA 87,520 100% 77,967 89% COC: NAMFREL: COC Increment: NAMFREL Trend: 7,142 (15,631) Dagdag Bawas: Dagdag bawas =

POE

130,485 41% 73,730 26% 56,755 215% 6,757 49,998 38,844

137,537 44% 115,773 40% 21,764 82% 10,609 11,154

314,577 100%

COC Increment: 17,709 185% NAMFREL Trend: 1,951 Dagdag Bawas: 15,758

(8,489)

-89%

9,553

11%

Dagdag bawas = 31,389

AGUSAN DEL NORTE Agusan was not in the Hello Garci tape. But it still delivered 22,289 dagdag-bawas.
GMA COC: NAMFREL: COC Increment: NAMFREL Trend: Total % Dagdag Bawas: Dagdag bawas = % POE % Total Voters 131,698 111,246 Total % 54% 46%

MAGUINDANAO Maguindanao had a computed dagdag-bawas of 53,798 which was 19.4% of total votes.
GMA: Ah dumating... dapat sigurado ang mga documents consistent sa Maguindanao. Gary: Ah, hindi ninyo naman ho masyadong problema sa Maguindanao ... Ano ho yung itinext kagabi na may mga fake precincts na ako daw ang mastermind. GMA COC: NAMFREL: COC Increment: NAMFREL Trend: Dagdag Bawas: Dagdag bawas = % POE % Total Voters

138,402 57% 72,591 55% 65,811 59% 61,318 4,493 22,289

50,866 21% 37,221 28% 13,645 12% 31,441 (17,796)

242,944 100%

199,431 72% 76,695 59% 122,736 83% 87,912 34,824 53,798

63,313 23% 38,340 30% 24,973 17% 43,947 (18,974)

277,318 100% 129,210 47% 148,108 53%

NORTH COTABATO This is one province where the Garci magic did not work. There was no substantial dagdag-bawas and GMA lost by about 40K.
GMA: Hello, forty-plus daw ang talo ko dun sa Cotabato? Gary: More or less, pero hindi ho siguro sosobra ng forty maam. Natakot na kami Atty. Vidol.
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GMA COC: NAMFREL: COC Increment: NAMFREL Trend: Dagdag Bawas: Dagdag bawas =

POE

Total Voters

Total %

131,749 33% 171,950 43% 48,672 31% 65,253 42%

404,268 100% 157,123 39% 247,145 61%

In previous elections provincial and city results were visibly displayed and readily available. Last year it was very hard to even get regional breakdowns. Based on the Sunday NAMFREL results, administration supporters were demanding that FPJ and other candidates concede to GMA, who they expected would win by 3 million votes. By not revealing that they had tabulated votes primarily from Pampanga, Cebu, and Iloilo NAMFREL provided a cover for massive dagdag-bawas in Mindanao and perhaps in Pampanga, Cebu, and Iloilo. The ratio of votes for GMA versus FPJ were: Pampanga Cebu Iloilo 7.69 to 1 6.45 to 1 5 to 1

83,077 34% 106,697 43% 76,558 6,519 2,461 102,639 4,058

LACK OF DUE DILIGENCE The above documents NAMFRELs failure to follow thru and exercise due diligence. With half a million dagdagbawas identified with a little analysis, there is a reason to suspect that the leadership of NAMFREL may have favored in favor of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. OTHER NAMFREL LAPSES In NAMFREL denies fudging poll tally Philippine Daily Inquirer July 8, 2005 Joe Concepcion said, NAMFREL results were based on a tally of election returns filled out at the precinct by school teachers and picked up by NAMFREL volunteers. These election returns are reports of actual ballot counting taken immediately after the polls close. The quick count got off to a crawling start canvassing only 20% of the precincts in the first 4 days. But between Saturday May 15 and Sunday may 16 there was an avalanche of votes, 1,809,123 for GMA and 851,312 for FPJ. Her lead jumped by 957,811. Date May 13 Thursday May 14 Friday May 15 Saturday May 16 Sunday GMA 1,274,165 324,000 1,598,165 560,053 2,158,218 1,809,123 3,967,341 FPJ 1,178,273 370,420 1,548,693 383,087 1,931,780 851,312 2,783,092 GMA Lead 95,892 (46,420) 49,472 176,966 226,438 957,811 1,184,249

MOVING FORWARD It is said that the way to hell is paved with good intentions. NAMFREL says that it does not do analysis. They just count. But to count and not compare your results with the official count is not good management practice and goes against common sense. In the future NAMFREL should make a post-audit part of its terminal report. The opposition lost a golden opportunity by attacking personalities at NAMFREL instead of asking for the Quick Count by province. Armed with such information they could have forced the review of COCs during the Congressional Canvass. The fact that I have been able to identify close to 600,000 Dagdag-Bawas is a tribute to the value of NAMFREL Quick Count even if it was slow. I too am sorry for being a year late. But it is not too late to impeach Gloria Macapagal Arroyo for personally instigating election fraud not just protection of her votes.

How did that happen? On the night of May 15 NAMFREL entered votes accumulated by local chapters in Pampanga, Cebu, and Iloilo. NAMFRELs serious lapse was lack of transparency.

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