Thayer Consultancy

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Background Briefing: Vietnam: New Cabinet Forecast Carlyle A. Thayer July20,2011

[clientnamedeleted] 1.AstheNationalAssemblyisgoingtorubberstampthenewleadershipnextweek,whatwhatis yourassessmentofsuchappointments? ANSWER: At the eleventh party congress seven ministers, who were members of the Central Committee, failed to gain re election to the Central Committee. Since Central Committee membershipisaprerequisiteforappointmentatministeriallevelthismeantthattheseministers wouldhavetostepdown. ThenewNationalAssemblywillhavetheopportunitytovetandapproveallCabinetnominations includingtheeightministrieswholosttheirministers:ForeignAffairs,HomeAffairs,Planningand Investment, Construction, Information and Communications, Science and Technology, Natural ResourcesandEnvironmentandHealth.Sixofthenewministersareformerdeputyministersin thesamedepartment.Theirelectionwillrepresentcontinuityinleaderships. Two ministries, Information and Communication and Natural Resources and Environment, will haveoutsidersappointedasministers.Inbothcasesthenewministerswillbemovedfromposts within the party apparatus. Nguyen Bac Son, the deputy head of the partys Ideology and Propaganda Committee, would seem best equipped to take up the post of Minister of Information and Communication. Nguyen Minh Quang, who is the party chief for Central Agencies,islikelytofaceamajorchallengeinhisnewportfolioasMinisterofNaturalResources andEnvironment. Ithinkthemostimportantsignwillbethenumberofvoteseachprospectiveministerreceives.A lowvotewillindicatealackofconfidence.Overall,theNationalAssemblylookssettoapprovea team that can work effectively with Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung. The Prime Minister has alsoselectedfourdeputyprimeministers,onelessthanbefore.Thisshouldbeamorecohesive teamthanthefivedeputyprimeministersinthelastterm. 2.DoyoubelievethattheNationalAssemblywillbeabletosustainitsmomentumofopening thefloorforheateddebatesandgrillingcabinetmembers,giventhatacabinetmember,Deputy PMNguyenSinhHung,isbeinginstalledasthenewhousespeaker?Whyorwhynot? ANSWER: Ever since 1992 when the new Constitution and new Electoral Law ws adopted, deputiestotheNationalAssemblyhaveplayedanincreasinglyimportantroleincreatingalaw governed state. The new deputies will inherit the legacy of previous legislatures. Nguyen Sinh Hung will no longer occupy the post of deputy prime minister and will therefore not have a conflictofinterestwhenCabinetministersarequestions.Sinhwillsoonlearnthathisroleisone of political broker and consensus seeker The quality of the new deputies will ensure that they take on their responsibility to review government policy and the performance of individual ministers.Insum,thenewlegislaturewillbuildonthelegacyofthepastbutinagradualmanner.

2
3.OnofthemostsignificantfeaturesoftheoutgoingNationalAssemblyinthelattenurewad theabsenceofawatershedpolicyonboostingtheagriculturesector.Dontyouagreewiththis anddoyouseegroundsforhopethatthenewleadershipwilltakedrasticmeasurestoaddress thisshortcoming? ANSWER:PolicyissetbytheCabinetandbyministers.Vietnamsdevelopmentstrategyfavours theurbanareasandareskewedtowardspromotingindustrialgrowth.Idonotseeanysignsthat theseprioritieswillbealteredbytheGovernment. Sincedeputiescannotinitiatelegislationtheinitiativeforreformoftheagriculturesectormust come from the Cao Duc Phat who is being renominated as Minister of Agriculture and Development. 4. What should Vietnams new leadership do to address the rising wealth disparity that has boggeddownthenationsdevelopmentoverthepastdecades?Howwilltherisinglandlessness ofVietnamesefarmersexacerbatetheproblem? ANSWER: For many years the land issue has been the cause of numerous public protests and disturbances.Thesolutionisnottodiscourageindividualsfrombecomingwealthy,buttoensure thatthelawisappliedequallytoall.Thismeansgivingprioritytoaddressingcorruptionorthe interventionofwealthinpolitics.TheGovernmentshouldcontinuetodevelopappropriatesocial welfaremeasurestoaddresstheproblemsofthosewholiveinpoverty.

Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Vietnam: Evaluating the New Government Carlyle A. Thayer July 20, 2011

[clientnamedeleted] 1. How do you evaluate the performance of the Government over the pastfive years?Whatareitsmainachievementsandmainweaknesses? Vietnams Government successfully weathered the global financial crisis through a stimulus package and maintained social stability at the same time. A major achievement has been to maintaining comparatively high economic growth rates duringthisdifficultperiod. ThemajorshortcomingwastheCabinetsfailuretomaintaineffectiveoversightover state conglomerates such as Vinashin and the inability of the AntiCorruption SteeringCommitteetoeffectivelydealwithcorruption. 2. How do you assess Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dungs role in economic managementduringhisfirstterminoffice? The Prime Minister is a nationalist who promotes the role of largescale state industriestoprotectVietnamfromglobalcompetition.ThePrimeMinisterisalsoa personaccustomedtogettinghisownway.ThePrimeMinisternowneedstoadopt amoreconsultativeapproachtodecisionmaking.Heshouldwintheconfidenceof former officials many of whom feel their advice and counsel is treated in a perfunctorymanner. 3.WhowillbethemajornewappointmentsintheGovernment?. The reelection of Nguyen Tan Dung as prime minister will be reassuring to the internationalcommunityastherewassomeuncertainlyoverwhatleadershiprolehe mightassumefollowingtheeleventhpartycongress. NguyenTanDungisaleaderwhohassuccessfullyturnedtheroleofprimeminister intoaproactiveone.In2007heunsuccessfullysought to decreasethe number of deputyprimeministersandaddsomenewblood.Thistimethenumbersofdeputy primeministerswillbereducedfromfivetofour. Two deputy prime ministers are his protgs who have been reelected. Nguyen ThienNhanwillhavetoprovehisiscapableinthisofficeafterhisexperiencewith theeducationportfolio.HoangTrungHaihasproventhatheiscapableinstepping upaspermanentdeputyprimeminister.

2 Thetwonewcomersappeartobegoodchoices.VuVanNinhwillbringconsiderable experienceastheformerministeroffinance.NguyenXuanPhuchasworkedclosely withtheprimeministerinthepastand willbeeffectivebecausehehastheprime ministersconfidence.Thenewteamofdeputyministersshouldbemoreunifiedand cohesivethanbefore 4.WhataremajorchangesinnewCabinetarelikely? DuringthelasttenurethereweretwoCabinetreshuffles,thefirstin2006andthe secondin2007.ThistimeitthereisnoneedforatwostepCabinetreshuffleasthe timingthenationalpartycongressandelectionstotheNationalAssemblyhavebeen synchronized. Nearly onethird of the new Cabinet are incumbent ministers and their reelection willbringstabilitytothegovernment.Eight ofthenew ministerswillstepupfrom being deputy minister to minister. They will bring experience and stability to their ministries.TheselectionofPhamBinhMinhisparticularlyimportantafterPhamGia Khiemtenure Two ofthe new ministers werereshuffledfromoneportfoliotoanother.VuDinh Hue will bring experience as head of the State Audit Agency to the Ministry of Finance.DinhLaThangwillbringhisadministrativeexperienceasthechairmanof PetroVietnamGrouptotheMinistryofTransport. Therearefournewcomerswhowillbemovingfrompartypoststostateministries: VuDucDam,whowillheadtheGovernmentOffice,servedaspartychiefofQuang Ninhprovince;NguyenThiHaiChuyen,willtakeovertheMinistryofLabour,Invalids andSocialAffairsafterservingasdeputyheadofthepartyInspectionCommission. NguyenMinhQuangwilltakechargeofNaturalResourcesandEnvironment,isthe formerpartychiefoftheCentralAgenciesCommittee.Finally,NguyenBacSon,takes over Information and Communication after serving as deputy head of the partys IdeologyandPropagandaCommittee.Heisprobablybest qualifiedforhisnewjob outofthenewcomers.Allfournewministerswillhavetheirworkcutoutforthem andtheywillhavetoprovethemselves.Quangstepsintoadifficultportfoliogiven concern expressed by retiring National Assembly deputies over environmental issues. 5.Whatshouldtheprioritiesforthenewgovernmentbeforitsnextfiveyearterm inpolitics,economicsandforeignaffairs? Inmyviewthetoppoliticalpriorityoverthenextfiveyearsshouldbetoensurethat all provincial party chiefs, all secretaries of peoples councils, and even the state presidentaredirectlyelected. More authority and resources should be allocated to the National Assembly to improveitscommitteesystem.Theyshouldbeempoweredtoholdpublichearings on important public policy matters and to make recommendations to the National Assemblyleadership. As for economics: the top priority must be to continue with the proactive integration into the global economy by reforming stateowned enterprises and removing barriers to foreign investment in domestic enterprises. Vietnam should

3 complete the process of joining the TransPacific Partnership. Finally, Vietnam shouldaimtobecomeselfsufficientinenergy. VietnamhasemergedasanimportantregionalpowerinSoutheastAsia.Itwillnot havethesameopportunitiestoshowleadershipasitdidinthepastfiveyearswhen Vietnam served as ASEAN Chair and was a nonpermanent member of the UN SecurityCouncil.Prioritymustbegiventoplayingaconstructiveroleinbuildingup ASEANandtheEastAsiaSummitaseffectivemultilateralorganizations.Thismeans working with the ASEAN Chair as well as major powers to develop an effective internationallegalregimetopreventconflictintheEastSea. Vietnam can also make a significant contribution to the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus by supporting initiatives to have this new body adopt effective and practicalproposalsrelatedtoregionalsecurity. 6.WhatwillbethemajorchallengeforVietnam,in5years,in10years? There are two important challenges in the next five years. The first will be to implement the maritime strategy to develop Vietnams coastal regions with its ExclusiveEconomicZonewithaparticulartimeofexploitinghydrocarbonresources. The second major challenge is to raise Vietnams tertiary education sector up to worldclassstandards. Themostimportantchallengeoverthenexttenyearswillbetodealwiththeeffects ofclimatechangebyadoptingeffectiveandappropriatemitigationstrategies. 7.Majoropportunitiesinpolitical,economicandsocialdevelopment? Vietnamwillfaceamajoropportunitytoadjustitspoliticalandeconomicinstitutions tothegrowingchangesinVietnamseconomyandsociety.Thiswillmeaneffectively devolvingpowerfromthecentretotheprovincesandlowerlevels. It also means allowing new social forces to play their role in the political and economicsystems.Forexample,theVietnamCommunistPartyshouldpermitlarger numbersofprivateentrepreneurstojoinitsranks.Vietnamspoliticalsystemshould reflect the newly emerging political economy. At the same time, Vietnam should create the conditions for a wider diversity of choice in the selection of National Assemblydeputiesoverthenexthalfdecade. 8.HowwillforeigninvestorsviewVietnamsnewCabinet? ForeigninvestorswillbereassuredbythereelectionofPrimeMinisterNguyenTan Dung,hischoiceofdeputyprimeministersandthecontinuityofhisnewCabinet.For example,theelevationof BuiQuangVinhfromdeputytoministerofPlanningand Investmentwillbereassuring. 9. How do Vietnams relations with Australia, India, New Zealand add value to Vietnamsinternationallinks? Vietnam will continue to develop its comprehensive strategic partnerships with all threecountries,underwhatevernameisusedtodescribebilateralrelations.Eachof thesecountriescancontributetothedevelopmentofVietnamseducationalsystem and offer experience in integration with the global economy. All three countries offeraccesstonewtechnologies.

4 AustraliaisanallyoftheUnitedStates,IndiaandNewZealandworkcloselywiththe U.S. on a variety of international issues. Vietnam can leverage its ties with these threenationsinitsdealingswithothermajorpowers. 10.IfconsultedbynewPrimeMinister,whatshouldhedofirst?Whatadvicewould yougive? I would advise the Prime Minister that he and his Cabinet should be more accountable to the public through greater transparency in decisionmaking. More information should be made available to a public that is becoming more sophisticated in its understanding of public policy. More effort must be made to explain government policies and getting feedback from Vietnamese citizens. The Prime Minister should learn from the bauxite mining and highspeed rail projects thatwiderconsultationsinpolicymakingisnecessary.

Thayer Consultancy
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Background Briefing: Vietnam: Nguyen Tan Dung Re-elected Prime Minister Carlyle A. Thayer July 26, 2011

[clientnamedeleted] ProvideyourassessmentofNguyenTanDungsreelectionasprimeminister. ANSWER:ThereelectionofNguyenTanDungasprimeministerwillbereassuringto the international community as there was some uncertainly over what leadership rolehemightassumefollowingtheeleventhpartycongress. ThePrimeMinisterNguyenTanDungisanationalistwhopromotestheroleoflarge scale state industries to protect Vietnam from global competition. Dung is also a personaccustomedtogettinghisownway.ThePrimeMinisternowneedstoadopt amoreconsultativeapproachtodecisionmaking. NguyenTanDungisaleaderwhohassuccessfullyturnedtheroleofprimeminister intoaproactiveone.In2007heunsuccessfullysought to decreasethe number of deputyprimeministersandaddsomenewblood.Thistimethenumbersofdeputy prime ministers will be reduced from five to four. The Prime Minister has also selected four deputy prime ministers, one less than before. This should be a more cohesiveteamthanthefivedeputyprimeministersinthelastterm. Two deputy prime ministers are his protgs who have been reelected. Nguyen ThienNhanwillhavetoprovehisiscapableinthisofficeafterhisexperiencewith theeducationportfolio.HoangTrungHaihasproventhatheiscapableinstepping upaspermanentdeputyprimeminister. Thetwonewcomersappeartobegoodchoices.VuVanNinhwillbringconsiderable experienceastheformerministeroffinance.NguyenXuanPhuchasworkedclosely withtheprimeministerinthepastand willbeeffectivebecausehehastheprime ministersconfidence.Thenewteamofdeputyministersshouldbemoreunifiedand cohesivethanbefore

Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Vietnams New Cabinet - 1 Carlyle A. Thayer July 27, 2011

[clientnamedeleted] CouldyouprovideabriefassessmentaboutVietnamsnewleadership> ANSWER:PrimeMinisterNguyenTanDungisanationalistwhowillpromotetherole oflargescalestateenterprisestoprotectVietnamfromglobalcompetition.Dungis aleaderwhohassuccessfullyturnedtheroleofprimeministerintoaproactiveone. Hisreappointmentasprimeministermeanshewillwieldevenmorepowerthanin thepast. DungsCabinetrepresentscontinuityoverchangegiventhenumberofincumbents whowerereappointedorreassignedplusthenumberofdeputyministersappointed toheadtheirrespectiveministries. Dungsmaindrawbackisthatheisapersonaccustomedtogettinghisownwayand reactsstronglywhendissentingviewsareheard.

Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Vietnams New Cabinet: An Evaluation Carlyle A. Thayer July 27, 2011

[clientnamedeleted] AstheNationalAssemblyisratifyingalineupofministersandheadsofministrylevel agenciesthisweek,couldyouprovideanassessmentonsomeofthefreshfacesthat standoutorsomefiguresyouareexpectingtoinjectnewlifeintothegovernment performancethistenure. ANSWER:ThenewCabinetwillhavefourdeputyprimeministersonelessthanthe previous Cabinet. Two deputy prime ministers are protgs of Prime Minister NguyenTanDungwhohavebeenreelected.HoangTrungHaihasproventhatheis capableinsteppingupaspermanentdeputyprimeminister.NguyenThienNhanwill have to prove his is capable in this office after his experience with the education portfolio. Thetwonewcomersappeartobegoodchoices.VuVanNinhwillbringconsiderable experienceastheformerministeroffinance.NguyenXuanPhuchasworkedclosely withtheprimeministerinthepastand willbeeffectivebecausehehastheprime ministersconfidence.Thenewteamofdeputyministersshouldbemoreunifiedand cohesivethanbeforeNearlyonethirdofthenewCabinetareincumbentministers andtheirreelectionwillbringstabilitytothegovernment. Eightofthenewministerswillstepupfrombeingdeputyministertominister.They will bring experience and stability to their ministries. The selection of Pham Binh MinhisparticularlyimportantafterPhamGiaKhiemstenureasforeignminister. Two ofthe new ministers werereshuffledfromoneportfoliotoanother.VuDinh Hue will bring experience as head of the State Audit Agency to the Ministry of Finance.DinhLaThangwillbringhisadministrativeexperienceasthechairmanof PetroVietnamGrouptotheMinistryofTransport. Therearefournewcomerswhowillbemovingfrompartypoststostateministries: VuDucDam,whowillheadtheGovernmentOffice,servedaspartychiefofQuang Ninhprovince;NguyenThiHaiChuyen,willtakeovertheMinistryofLabour,Invalids andSocialAffairsafterservingasdeputyheadofthepartyInspectionCommission. NguyenMinhQuangwilltakechargeofNaturalResourcesandEnvironment,isthe formerpartychiefoftheCentralAgenciesCommittee.Finally,NguyenBacSon,takes

2 overInformationandCommunicationafterservingasdeputyheadofthepartys IdeologyandPropagandaCommittee.Heisprobablybest qualifiedforhisnewjob outofthenewcomers.Allfournewministerswillhavetheirworkcutoutforthem andtheywillhavetoprovethemselves.Quangstepsintoadifficultportfoliogiven concern expressed by retiring National Assembly deputies over environmental issues.

Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Vietnams New Cabinet - 3 Carlyle A. Thayer August 3, 2011

[clientnamedeleted] ThenewproposednewCabinetlisthasbeenposted: http://baodientu.chinhphu.vn/Home/ThutuongtrinhQuochoiphechuancac thanhvienChinhphu/20118/95850.vgp Wewouldbeinterestedinyourassessment.ItlookslikethePrimeMinisterNguyen Tan Dungs hand is strengthened he's got four friends/allies as deputy prime ministers, the central banker is someone he's worked with before. Le Hong Anh is tipped to take over for Truong Tan Sang on the party secretariat. What is your assessmentofthecabinetlineup? ANSWER:ThereelectionofNguyenTanDungasprimeministerwillbereassuringto the international community as there was some uncertainly over what leadership rolehemightassumefollowingtheeleventhpartycongress. In 2007 Dung unsuccessfully sought to decrease the number of deputy prime ministers and add some new blood. A compromise was reached; the number of deputy prime ministers was expanded from three to five. Three were incumbents and two were protgs of the prime minister. This time the numbers of deputy primeministerswasreducedfromfivetofour. Dungstwoprotgshavebeenreelecteddeputyprimeministers.HoangTrungHai has proven that he is capable and loyal and has been promoted to permanent deputy primeminister.NguyenThienNhanwillhavetoprove he iscapableinthis officeafterhislessthansuccessfulexperiencewiththeeducationportfolio.. Thetwonewcomersappeartobesolidchoices.VuVanNinhwillbringconsiderable experienceastheformerministeroffinance.NguyenXuanPhuchasworkedclosely withtheprimeministerinthepastand willbeeffectivebecausehehastheprime ministersconfidence.Thenewteamofdeputyministersshouldbemoreunifiedand cohesive than before Prime Ministers Nguyen Tan Dungs Cabinet represents continuityoverchange.SevenincumbentsonethirdoftheoutgoingCabinetwere reappointedtotheirpreviousportfoliosandeightdeputyministerswereappointed to head their respective ministries. In other words, seventyone per cent of the Cabinetwereeitherincumbentministersorincumbentdeputyministers.

2 TherearesixnewfacesintheCabinet.Twoofthenewministerswerereassigned from senior posts with the state bureaucrace. Vuong Dinh Hoe the new Finance Minister,andDinhLaThang,thenewTransportMinistervacatedtheirpostasheads of the State Audit Agency and PetroVietnam respectively. Three new ministers previously held senior positions in the party apparatus: Information and Communication Minister Nguyen Bac Son was former head of the party Central Committees InformationandPropagandaCommission.ThenewministerofLabour,WarInvalids andSocialWelfare,NguyenThiHaiChuyen,vacatesherpositionasdeputychairof thepartyCentralCommitteesInspectionCommission.ThenewMinisterofNatural Resources and Environment, Nguyen Minh Quang, was head of the party Central Agencies Committee. The sixth new minister, Vu Duc Dam, will head the GovernmentOfficewaselevatedfromhispreviouspostaspartybossofQuangNinh province. PrimeMinisterNguyenTanDungisaleaderwhohassuccessfullyturnedtheroleof prime minister into arguably the most powerful position in Vietnam. Dung will be evenmoreproactiveinhissecondtermandwilldominateCabinetnowthathehas hissupportersinplaceasdeputyprimeministers. Nguyen Tan Dung and Le Hong Anh, the former Minister of Public Security are politicallyclose.AnhwillbeshiftedtoheadthepartySecretariat.Thiscombination willensurethatDungwieldsmorepowerthanbefore.HispoliticalrivalTruongTan Sanwilloccupythelargelyceremonialpostasstatepresident. No Cabinet in Vietnam has faced difficulties of the magnitude that confronted Vietnamin1985whenitfacedamajoreconomiccrisis.Thisledtodoimoi.Thenext significanthurdlecamein199798duringtheAsianFinancialCrisis.Vietnamwasnot yetfullyintegratedwiththeregionaleconomyandtheimpactwaslesssevere.The currenteconomicproblemsfacingVietnamaremoreseverethanduringDungsfirst termasprimeministerwheninflationalsoraged.ThistimeDungandhisCabinetnot only will have to tame inflation but seriously tackle corruption and the reform of stateownedenterprises. PrimeMinisterDungsmaindrawbackisthatheisapersonaccustomedtogetting hisownwayandreactsstronglyagainstdissentingviews. NguyenVanBinhselevationfromdeputygovernortogovernoroftheStateBankof Vietnamisasafeappointment.Hehasservedasunderstudyandmustnowputhis experiencetowork.ButanewfacemaybuyVietnamsometimeasforeigninvestors wantandseewhatthenewleadershipteamdoes.

Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Vietnam: New Cabinet Appraised Carlyle A. Thayer August 1, 2011

[clientnamedeleted] CouldyouofferyourassessmentofPrimeMinisterNguyenTanDung'snewcabinet which he is expected to announce tomorrow. Reports indicated the Cabinet will includeNguyenVanBinhascentralgovernor(withcurrentgovernorGiaumovingto headtheNationalAssemblyseconomiccommittee).VuongDinhHuewillbeFinance Minister(ascurrentfinanceministerNinhmovestodeputyprimeminister).Thenew MinisterofPlanningandInvestmentministerwillbeBuiQuangVinhandPhamBinh Minhwillbeforeignminister. 1.Whatdoyoumakeofthenewcabinet?Aretheyjustshufflingpeoplearound?? The reelection of Nguyen Tan Dung as prime minister will be reassuring to the internationalcommunityastherewassomeuncertainlyoverwhatleadershiprolehe mightassumefollowingtheeleventhpartycongress. In 2007 Dung unsuccessfully sought to decrease the number of deputy prime ministers and add some new blood. A compromise was reached; the number of deputy prime ministers was expanded from three to five. Three were incumbents and two were protgs of the prime minister. This time the numbers of deputy primeministerswillbereducedfromfivetofour. Dungstwoprotgshavebeenreelecteddeputyprimeministers.HoangTrungHai has proven that he is capable and loyal and has been promoted to permanent deputy primeminister.NguyenThienNhanwillhavetoprove he iscapableinthis officeafterhislessthansuccessfulexperiencewiththeeducationportfolio.. Thetwonewcomersappeartobesolidchoices.VuVanNinhwillbringconsiderable experienceastheformerministeroffinance.NguyenXuanPhuchasworkedclosely withtheprimeministerinthepastand willbeeffectivebecausehehastheprime ministersconfidence.Thenewteamofdeputyministersshouldbemoreunifiedand cohesivethanbefore Prime Ministers Nguyen Tan Dungs Cabinet represents continuity over change. Seven incumbents onethird of the outgoing Cabinet were reappointed to their previous portfolios and eight deputy ministers were appointed to head their

2 respective ministries. In other words, 71 per cent of the Cabinet were either incumbentministersorincumbentdeputyministers. TherearesixnewfacesintheCabinet.Twoofthenewministerswerereassigned from senior posts with the state bureaucracy. Vuong Dinh Hoe the new Finance Minister,andDinhLaThang,thenewTransportMinistervacatedtheirpostasheads of the State Audit Agency and PetroVietnam respectively. Three new ministers previously held senior positions in the party apparatus: Information and Communication Minister Nguyen Bac Son was former head of the party Central CommitteesInformationandPropagandaCommission.ThenewministerofLabour, War Invalids and Social Welfare, Nguyen Thi Hai Chuyen, vacates her position as deputy chair of the party Central Committees Inspection Commission. The new MinisterofNaturalResourcesandEnvironment,NguyenMinhQuang,washeadof the party Central Agencies Committee. The sixth new minister, Vu Duc Dam, will head the Government Office was elevated from his previous post as party boss of QuangNinhprovince. 2.Whatdothecabinetchoicessay/reflect? PrimeMinisterNguyenTanDungisaleaderwhohassuccessfullyturnedtheroleof prime minister into arguably the most powerful position in Vietnam. Dung will be evenmoreproactiveinhissecondtermandwilldominateCabinetnowthathehas hissupportersinplaceasdeputyprimeministers. Nguyen Tan Dung and Le Hong Anh, the former Minister of Public Security are politicallyclose.AnhwillbeshiftedtoheadthepartySecretariat.Thiscombination willensurethatDungwieldsmorepowerthanbefore.HispoliticalrivalTruongTan Sanwilloccupythelargelyceremonialpostasstatepresident. 3. This cabinet faces task of curbing Asia's highest inflation, turning around FDI, which has dropped. Can you put these challenges in perspectivehow would you comparewhatthey'vegottodovs.previouscabinets. No Cabinet in Vietnam has faced difficulties of the magnitude that confronted Vietnamin1985whenitfacedamajoreconomiccrisis.Thisledtodoimoi.Thenext significanthurdlecamein199798duringtheAsianFinancialCrisis.Vietnamwasnot yetfullyintegratedwiththeregionaleconomyandtheimpactwaslesssevere.The currenteconomicproblemsfacingVietnamaremoreseverethanduringDungsfirst termasprimeministerwheninflationalsoraged.ThistimeDungandhisCabinetnot only will have to tame inflation but seriously tackle corruption and the reform of stateownedenterprises. PrimeMinisterDungsmaindrawbackisthatheisapersonaccustomedtogetting hisownwayandreactsstronglyagainstdissentingviews. 4.Anycommentsyoumighthaveonappt.ofBinhascentralbankgovernor?Seems likehe'sgotachallengingjobofwinningbackinvestorconfidence. NguyenVanBinhselevationfromdeputygovernortogovernoroftheStateBankof Vietnamisasafeappointment.Hehasservedasunderstudyandmustnowputhis experiencetowork.ButanewfacemaybuyVietnamsometimeasforeigninvestors wantandseewhatthenewleadershipteamdoes.

3 Vietnams Cabinet July 2011 Prime Minister 1st Deputy Prime Minister Deputy Prime Minister Deputy Prime Minister Deputy Prime Minister Agriculture and Rural Development Construction Culture, Sport and Tourism Education and Training Finance Foreign Affairs Government Office Health Industry and Trade Information and Communications

Nguyen Tan Dung Hoang Trung Hai Nguyen Thien Nhan Vu Van Ninh Nguyen Xuan Phuc Cao Duc Phat Trinh Dinh Dung Hoang Tuan Anh Pham Vu Luan Vuong Dinh Hue Pham Binh Minh Vu Duc Dam Nguyen Thi Kim Tien Vu Huy Hoang Nguyen Bac Son

incumbent incumbent incumbent new new incumbent VM Promoted incumbent incumbent new State Audit VM Promoted New Quang Nam VM Promoted incumbent New CC Ideology & Propaganda VM Promoted incumbent New Deputy CC Inspection Cmttee incumbent incumbent New VCP Central Agencies VM Promoted VM Promoted VM Promoted New Chmn PetroVietnam VM Promoted

Interior/Home Affairs Nguyen Thai Binh Justice Ha Hung Cuong Labor, War Invalids and Social Welfare Nguyen Thi Hai Chuyen National Committee for Ethnic Groups National Defence Natural Resources and Environment Planning and Investment Public Security Science and Technology Transportation State Bank of Vietnam State Audit State Inspection State President Giang Seo Phu Phung Quang Thanh Nguyen Minh Quang Bui Quang Vinh Tran Dai Quang Nguyen Quan Dinh La Thang Nguyen Van Binh