Regional Vice President

Ulysses, Kan.

By: Dwight Koops

A REMEDY
FOR TODAY'S NEEDED MOISTURE
over their allotment in any year even under the most dire circumstances. The consequence can have long-lasting effects. For those wells that went over the allotment this year, a common practice will be to plant wheat behind corn. The wheat crop can be established this fall with 2012 water, and it is reasonable to assume that the producer can stay within the 2012 allotment to finish out the wheat crop. Then a decision can be made later whether to go back to a normal rotation in 2013. On the positive side, crop rotation is beneficial, and allows us to break weed, disease and insect cycles in a field. But, diverting from a normal crop mix can affect an operations revenue as well. Other crop choices will need to be considered. Some producers will opt for lower water use crops such as sorghum, sunflowers and cotton. If corn is the planned crop in 2012 without a full allotment, decisions need to be made concerning hybrid selection, populations, planting date, end use, etc. None of those decisions will be easy. What we do expect is that most likely any changes from normal rotations due to excessive water use in 2011 will affect the bottom line in a negative way in 2012. The DWR requires producers to file permits for this 2011 overage. Contact your local Ground Water Management District for details on filing. The deadline is prior to year end. If you file, and then do not go over your 2011 allotment, there is no harm, no foul. In this case, you will still have your entire 2012 allotment. I encourage anyone in these situations to file the proper paperwork before the end of the year so you are not subject to any penalties under the current regulations. We can only hope that the drought pattern in which a good portion of the High Plains and Southern Plains have been experiencing will not carry into 2012. We in agriculture consider ourselves pretty resilient; but I think this year has tested our metal to the limits. Please do not hesitate to call on your agronomist to help you make those tough decisions about cropping plans for next year.

Volume 21 Issue 5 September 2011

OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF CROP QUEST AGRONOMIC SERVICES, INC.

Crop Quest is an employee-owned company dedicated to providing the highest quality agricultural services for each customer. The quest of our network of professionals is to practice integrity and innovation to ensure our services are economically and environmentally sound.

Mission Statement

Crop Quest Agronomic Services, Inc. Main Office: Phone 620.225.2233 Fax 620.225.3199 Internet: www.cropquest.com cqoffice@cropquest.com

Employee-Owned & Customer Driven

PRSRT STD US POSTAGE PAID DODGE CITY KS PERMIT NO. 433

Crop Quest Board of Directors

President: Director: Director: Director: Director: Director: Ron OHanlon Jim Gleason Dwight Koops Cort Minor Chris McInteer Rob Benyshek

We have really good corn prices and the price relationship between corn and soybeans still favors corn, Asbridge outlines. Were expecting an increase in corn acreage in 2012 probably not as big a jump as it was this year, but it will certainly increase by at least a million acres. We had a near record consumption of fertilizer last fall, but it all fell apart this spring due to the bad weather. However, if the weather cooperates, were anticipating another very good fall application season. This is a major reason why fertilizer prices have remained so high. Fertilizer prices are expected to remain strong going into the fall. Buckley adds, You have to look at each of the various nutrients to get an overall feel for the market. As everyone knows, we had a disastrous spring regarding pre-plant application of fertilizers. However, we saw one of the best side-dress fertilizer seasons on record this year. This pretty well cleared out any inventory from the nitrogen side of the business particularly products like urea and UAN.

Forward Outlook

Just like it is critical to have all the resources offered by Crop Quest at your disposal to help plan your cropping season, it is equally important to have a service like NPK Fertilizer Advisory Services (NPKFAS) to keep track of your fertilizer pricing and purchasing options. NPKFAS is a consulting company focused primarily on advising fertilizer dealers and farmers on issues relating to the fertilizer industry. They publish an electronic Dave Asbridge fertilizer newsletter (NPKFAS.com) and do a lot of phone consulting and presentations to farmer, fertilizer buyer and fertilizer industry groups. Dave Asbridge, who has analyzed U.S. and world agriculture for over 30 years and partner Glen Buckley, formerly CF Industries Chief Economist for three decades, know fertilizer. They have spent a lot of time helping fertilizer buyers do a better job of knowing whether to make forward purchases and if so, when to carry them out. They also work to develop better ways to Glen Buckley forward purchase fertilizer products. In the fertilizer industry, no one moves without first consulting with NPKFAS.

Towards Your 2012 Fertilizer Purchases

Ammonia

Buckley says all this assures that were heading into this fall season with very little inventory and that almost everyone in the supply chain will need to restock. That means farmers are going to be looking at strong prices. We do expect prices to moderate later this fall, suggests Buckley. However, we anticipate prices that will be $100 to $200 above what farmers paid last year. The fertilizer experts predict that ammonia is going to be very tight. This scenario, however, can change based on the soybean harvest season. Since most of the soybean ground is going into corn next year and our bean crop is really late this year, were going to have a short window of ammonia application. If we have good weather, well have strong demand for ammonia and prices will remain high, assures Asbridge. If we wind up with a very short application season and ammonia doesnt get out this fall, then you can expect lower pricing in the spring. But going into this fall, ammonia prices will remain high. The experts outline that world demand really dictates the price of urea and this year, that demand is at record levels. Current inventories are critically low and that means a lot of imported urea needs to be brought in. When you factor in the weakness of the U.S. dollar vs. other currencies, it will take a higher bid to get our needed inventory and the farmer will have to pick up that difference in price, Buckley notes. The urea market is tight. While we anticipate that prices may be backing off as we near the fall, they are expected to be at least $150 above what farmers paid last year. Asbridge adds that the phosphate market has some carryover from the spring, but lower production and strong U.S. exports to India and Latin America have tightened supplies. There is no reason for sellers to drop prices in the near-term, but supplies should improve and prices could moderate later in the fall, he notes. Overall, farmers can expect to pay about $150-200 per ton more for phosphates this fall than last fall. Continued on Page 2

Urea

Phosphate

Crop Quest Perspectives

This summer has been one for the record books. Across a good portion of the High Plains, we have experienced drought and heat issues that rival those tough years in the 1930s, 1950s, and more recently, 1980. In my career as an agronomist, I have never witnessed irrigated corn watered everyday wither into a field of dried up plants in just a matter of days! It was hard to watch. This situation was not necessarily due to drought conditions as it was excessive, relentless and brutal heat. At the same time though, it became quite obvious that irrigation well size did make a difference. The corn under larger capacity wells was able to withstand the heat stress better than under smaller wells up to a point. Soil type was another factor. Sandy soils with low water holding capacity combined with smaller well capacity really suffered. Too many fields had to be salvaged as ensilage or baled feed. In Kansas, a drought disaster was declared in many counties clear back in April. In June and July, more counties were added to that declaration. This declaration gave the Division of Water Resources (DWR) the authority to offer additional pumping authority to producers for the remainder of this growing season. Essentially, producers could use 2012 water in 2011. Participants would agree to deduct the 2011 overage from what they are permitted to pump in 2012. The DWR recognized that if a step like this was not taken, all the water applied during the season would be a huge waste of a resource and investment. So, those fields that had enough water capacity to raise a good crop, and used an inordinate amount of water early in the season just to sustain the crop, came with a price. Many of these wells surpassed the allotment before the crop was finished. Water allotments have become a focal point for most decisions related to crop production. They determine which crop is grown, rotations, hybrid maturities, populations, pesticide choices, nozzle packages, equipment upgrades, etc. So, it is understandable that producers are very reluctant to go

Veteran Fertilizer Consultants Warn

Take a Wait-and-See Attitude

Veteran Fertilzer Consultants

... Continued from Page 1

Although NPK Fertilizer Advisory Services recommendation is simple, it has been based on market facts and their 30+ years of experience: 1. If your cropping system/management allows, dont apply fall fertilizers. Wait for the spring when prices will probably stabilize at a lower cost for most fertilizers. 2. If you are going to apply this fall, hold off as long as possible before locking in prices. Prices right now are close to, if not at their highest point of the year.

Potash

Buckley says that potash retail prices which have been gradually trending upward appear to have hit a plateau. We expect prices to hold at close to current levels through the end of the calendar year. Although potash producers continue to point out that inventory is down significantly from the last two years, it is still close to the long-term average. We dont see supply as a problem. And what about the High Plains winter crops? Regarding winter wheat, adds Asbridge, given the weather situation, theres not going to be a fall fertilizer season on pre-plant winter wheat. Everyone is probably going to wait for the spring because of the lack of moisture. If farmers get a good crop and the weather looks cooperative, I think youll see a lot of topdressing in the spring.

Combines Provide Unique View of the Operation

Even though Mother Nature has not been kind to the High Plains row crop producer this year, dont let down your guard at harvest. An essential key to growing a successful crop is paying attention during harvest, in order to see where you can avoid production issues for next year. That advice from Vaughn Cook, Production Manager of the 7,800-acre Ute Mountain Ute Tribe Farm & Ranch Enterprise in Towaoc, CO, is backed by years of experience and a constant commitment to improve. Cook, who oversees 109 center pivot systems gravity-charged from canals bringing water from the McPhee Reservoir 41 miles away, says while you cant do anything about this year's production at harvest, you can obtain some data and management information that can make you a better crop next season. The number one item that stands out especially in irrigated corn is blocked or malfunctioning irrigation nozzles. Another clear picture can be seen with fertilizer issues, hybrid variations, sprayer malfunctions, weed control, insect management and drainage, says Cook. If youve been across the fields for many years, these anomalies really stand out. The key, though, is to make note of them. Dont just drive over them. Bruce Seiler, Seiler Farms in Sedgwick, KS, oversees 3,000 acres of irrigated and dryland corn, soybeans and wheat and another 500 acres of alfalfa. He says, After years of farming a particular piece of ground, you get a feel for the variations of the soil for that field. When harvesting, we are able to compare our yield map data with our expectations and make plans for the following crop year. And with the extreme dry conditions we faced in 2011, we expect the variations of the various soil types to be more obvious at harvest time. We will be especially vigilant in comparing these items at harvest this year so we can add that to our data package for next year's planting season. Cook likes to take pictures with his cell phone or jot the zone coordinates down in a notebook to compare with his yield monitor data later. This is an excellent intelligence gathering opportunity. Dont just ride the combine, make it a learning and data gathering opportunity that you can take advantage of to improve next years crop. Cook likes to invite his irrigation managers to ride the combine with him in specific problem fields. This is an opportunity for the irrigation people to see where they have issues, says Cook. They only see the fields from eye-level whereas in the combine they can see huge areas. Likewise, I invite them to ride with me when Im in an especially nice field so they can see how well their work has paid off. These efforts at harvest have prompted Cook to have irrigation managers year round, who work with nozzles and pressure on the pivots. This move has really paid off for the production across the entire operation, adds Cook.
2 Crop Quest Perspectives

Vigilance during the irrigation season has also paid off for Seiler. We noticed at harvest several seasons back that inconsistency with yields were directly related to nozzle spacing being too wide and causing an inconsistent spray pattern, Seiler notes. We have lowered the height of our spray nozzles to 7-feet to minimize evaporation. We now constantly monitor the nozzles for rotation and other issues during the irrigating season. Seiler adds that from the combine he can see firsthand how their plans are working and how far new technology tools are improving overall production. Using yield monitors and grid mapping has helped us tremendously to improve overall soil fertility and make fields more uniform. "We now plant 30-inch corn one year, and the next year we plant 7.5-inch twin-row soybeans that straddle last year's corn rows, he explains. The roots of the new plants follow the old root system from the previous crop allowing them to develop a faster and larger root system. We also use GPS for strip tilling, planting, and spraying. We are correcting soil fertility issues by creating a prescription for our P and K for each field using grid-mapping data. This is our sixth year for gathering information with our yield maps. Another benefit Seiler points to from his position on the combine is seeing how their soil management is working out. During a wet spring, the low areas of the field may have a poorer population. We have equipped our scraper with a laser to improve these drainage issues. With strip-till planting and min-till approach, we have minimized our exposure to erosion. We try to control compaction by maintaining the same traffic lanes using our GPS. In a wet year, when we Skeete Armstrong- Agronomist John Gibson- Precision Ag Specialist might have compaction from the grain cart, Education: B.S. in Agribusiness, West Texas Education: B.S. in Ag Systems Management & M.S. in we inter-row rip after harvest. A&M University Ag Systems Management, Texas A&M University Both Seiler and Cook utilize zone mapHometown: Grady, NM Hometown: Tulia, TX ping to lay these over their yield maps to Based From: Northwest KS Based From: Dodge City, KS give them a real-time look. Yield monitor Main Focus: Corn, Milo, Wheat, & Sunflowers Main Focus: Learning new ways to adapt technology Interests & Activities: Fishing, Reading & to help in ag management decisions & applications data is used hand-in-hand with our Crop Spending Time With Family and Friends. Interests & Activities: Watching College & NFL Quest Zone Mapping software to see how Football, Hunting & Training/Playing With My Two our management efforts are paying off, says Dogs. Skeete Armstrong John Gibson Cook. Crop Quests John Hecht sits down with all the data and we can see clearly where our management improvements are Elliott Rounds- Agronomist Matt Tuxhorn- General Ledger Accountant Tracy Herrmann- Recruiting/ paying off or if we need to adjust them. Its Education: B.S. in Plant and Soil Science, Education: B.A. in Accounting, Fort Hays State Communication Coordinator good to have someone like John here to help Oklahoma State University & M.S. in Plant University Education: B.S. in Human Resource us interpret and analyze all the data. Physiology, Texas A&M University Hometown: Dodge City, KS Management, Kansas State University In conclusion Cook adds, The combine Hometown: Banner, OK Based From: Dodge City, KS Hometown: Ford, KS provides a unique view of the farm. Take a Based From: Ulysses, KS Main Focus: Keeping Up With the Ever Based From: Dodge City, KS note pad or camera-ready cell phone with Main Focus: Corn, Milo, Hay & Sunflowers Evolving Accounting & ESOP Regulations Main Focus: Getting Acquainted With Staff you. Make plenty of notes and/or take lots Interests & Activities: Woodworking, Interests & Activities: Golf, Softball, Hunting, & Bringing New Ideas to Further Develop of photos of areas you know are issues. And Gardening, Deer Hunting & Target Fishing, Shooting, Helping on the Farm & Recruiting & On-Boarding Procedures Shooting. Anxiously Awaiting the Birth of our Daughter finally, and my best advice stay awake! Interests & Activities: Fishing, Cooking,

5
3
Tracy Herrmann

By early September, most of us will know As a conclusion to this study, the researchers found that increasing stubble what the potential losses are due to the extreme height improved subsequent corn grain yield and WUE (water use efficiency). heat and drought conditions throughout much of the The increased grain yields were a result of the increase in kernels per ear and High Plains and Southern Plains areas. Mother ear population. See the chart below: Nature has shown us once again how critical Corn Grain Yield And Yield Components As Affected By water is to our survival. We sometimes get Stubble Height: Tribune, 2007-2010 complacent during good times and forget about conserving water using every means Grain Kernel Stubble Yield Plant Ear Residue Residue: Weight Kernels/ Ears/ WUE Yield possible. It takes years like this year to Height (bu/a) Population Population (lb/acre) Ear Plant (lb/in) Ratio (oz/1,000) By: Ron OHanlon awaken us once again. President In a recent online Kansas State ExtenStripped 92.0a 15,500 15,700 6175 1.22 10.42 521 1.01 361 Member, National Alliance sion Agronomy eUpdate newsletter, the writer High 89.9a 15,400 15,400 6421 1.35 10.54 504 1.00 350 of Independent Crop summarized a research article on the Effect Consultants, CPCC-I Low 80.3b 15,500 15,100 5550 1.30 10.33 467 0.98 305 Certified of Stubble Height in a No-Till Wheat-Corn/Grain Sorghum-Fallow Rotation, by Lucas Haag and Alan The effect of stubble height on grain sorghum yields was less apparent Schlegel. It may have been timelier if this article had been written when wheat and will require further study, which was in direct contrast to other studies. harvesters could have adjusted their cutting height, but the importance of See chart: conserving moisture is essential to recognize. For this study, the crops were planted into wheat stubble of three heights Grain Sorghum Grain Yield And Yield Components As Affected By from tallest to shortest: stripped, optimal and short. It was discovered that Stubble Height: Tribune, 2007-2010 there were many hidden effects of wheat stubble height on the following Grain Kernel Stubble Yield Plant Head Residue Residue: Weight Kernels/ Heads/ WUE rotations of dryland corn or grain sorghum crop. The majority of these Yield Height (bu/a) Population Population (lb/acre) Head Plant (lb/in) Ratio (oz/1,000) effects had a direct influence on soil moisture, such as, evaporation suppression, capture of snowfall during winter, protection from soil Stripped 101.9 18,300 50,000 5968 1.08 0.88 2109 2.87 419 erosion and suppression of weed growth. Wind velocity, surface radiation High 107.4 18,900 51,900 6389 1.08 0.92 2069 2.84 432 interception, and surface temperature all fluctuate in various heights of Low 102.9 19,200 50,200 5978 1.09 0.91 2073 2.69 413 stubble. These components are significant when it comes to conserving soil moisture. For more information, and further details of the study, see Southwest Many advantages may be found with the effect of stubble height. Long term Research-Extension Center Field Day 2011, K-State publication SRP benefits of soil moisture conservation and water efficiency can be obtained in 1052: http://www.ksre.ksu.edu/library/crpsl2/srp1052.pdf finding the ideal height of stubble. With more surface residue the soil qualI could go on with more information about conserving soil moisture ity increases; one reason being the stubble enhances the efficiency of holding for the subsequent crop, but hopefully this past summer will help all of water. With continuous no-till, an increase in size and number of pores in the us make the necessary changes in our operations to survive the harsh soil profile can be found, allowing for more moisture to be absorbed. This conditions of the High Plains. Visit with your Crop Quest agronomist will also lead to less water run-off or pooling that can result in evaporation. about soil moisture conservation ideas. These advantages, what seemed to be minor in prior years, have become more significant than ever in todays climate and have been shown in this study.

WATER A CRITICAL RESOURCE

FIVE NEW PERSPECTIVES

Traveling, Learning Spanish, Scrapbooking.

Elliott Rounds

Matt Tuxhorn

in December 2011.

www.cropquest.com

Crop Quest Perspectives