ConflictintheSouthChinaSea:

DerailingChinasPeacefulDevelopment?
CarlyleA.Thayer Carlyle A Thayer PFInternasjonal Politikk Og konomi andPeaceResearchInstituteOslo and Peace Research Institute Oslo Oslo,Norway September8,2011

Outline
Dynamicsatplay: Dynamics at play: Conflictingsovereigntyclaims
Chi Chinaandenergysecurity d it

ChinasriseandchallengetoU.S.primacy
SecureSeaLinesofCommunication(SLOC) Controlbeyondsecondislandchain

ASEANsassertionofcentralityandregional autonomy y

ConflictingSovereigntyClaims Conflicting Sovereignty Claims

SouthChinaSea claimants: China h Taiwan Vietnam ThePhilippines Malaysia l Brunei

UNCommissiononLimitsofContinentalShelf May13,2009

Chinas9dash lineUshaped li U h d maplaying p y g claimtoover 80%ofthe 80% f h SouthChina South China Sea

BinhMinh02 Incident ReedBank Incident

ChinaandEnergySecurity China and Energy Security

China estimates that the South China Sea ChinaestimatesthattheSouthChinaSea contains
14 times the estimates of its oil reserves and 14timestheestimatesofitsoilreservesand 10timesmorethanitsgasreserves

Chi Chinaclaimsthatitloosesabout20million l i th t it l b t 20 illi tonsofoilannuallyorabout40%ofitstotal offshoreproductionduetotheactivitiesof ff h d ti d t th ti iti f countriesintheSouthChinaSea.

ChinaandEnergySecurity China and Energy Security

CNOOC plans to invest US $31 billion to drill CNOOCplanstoinvestUS$31billiontodrill 800deepwaterwellsintheEastSea,Yellow SeaandSouthChinaSeawiththeaimof Sea and South China Sea with the aim of producing500milliontonsofoilby2020. Philippines plans to boost hydrocarbon Philippinesplanstoboosthydrocarbon reservesby40%innexttwodecades Vi Vietnamsdomesticgasdemandwilltripleby d i d d ill i l b 2025(WorldBank)

ChinasRiseand ChallengetoU.S.Primacy
ChinaseconomywillovertaketheU.S. Militarymodernization
Submarinefleet Anticarrierballisticmissile

Antiaccess/areadenial First and Second island chain FirstandSecondislandchain YulinNavalBase,HainanIsland

FirstandSecondIslandChains

YulinNaval Yulin Naval Base,Sanya 5Aug05to 5 A 05 t 28Feb08

YulinNavalBase

Secure SeaLinesofCommunication f
100,000shipstransitStraitsofMalacca annually >25%ofworldstradedgoodspassthrough SouthChinaSea 25%ofalloilshipmentscarriedbyseapass throughStraits(11millionbarrelsor1.7 through Straits (11 million barrels or 1 7 missioncubicmetresperday)

SLOCStrategicOverview

Hainan H i Island

ChinasStringofPearls

ASEANsAssertionofCentralityand RegionalAutonomy
ZoneofPeace,FreedomandNeutrality(1971) ASEAN Treaty of Amity and Cooperation ASEANTreatyofAmityandCooperation (1976) DeclarationonConductofPartiesintheSouth l d f h h ChinaSea(2002) ASEANRegionalForum

ASEANsAssertionofCentralityand RegionalAutonomy
ASEANcentricmultilateralism ASEAN Plus Three East Asia Summit expansion ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting (ADMM) ADMM Plus Pursuit of Code of Conduct

DerailingChinasPeaceful Development?
Regionalarmsdynamic Force modernisation by Vietnam ForcemodernisationbyVietnam Kilosubmarines,Gepardfrigates A ti hi Antishipmissiles i il ForcemodernisationbythePhilippines U.S.militaryactivitiesinChinasEEZs

USNSImpeccableIncident USNS Impeccable Incident

DerailingChinasPeaceful Development?
Role of multiple Chinese actors in South China RoleofmultipleChineseactorsinSouthChina Seapolicy Ultra nationalist voices teach Vietnam a Ultranationalistvoices teachVietnama secondlesson L d hi Leadershiptransitionatnextcongressofthe ii f h ChineseCommunistParty Buildupofcivilianmaritimejurisdiction enforcementfleet

ConflictintheSouthChinaSea:
DerailingChinasPeacefulDevelopment?
CarlyleA.Thayer Carlyle A Thayer PFInternasjonal Politikk Og konomi andPeaceResearchInstituteOslo and Peace Research Institute Oslo Oslo,Norway September8,2011