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  • Thayer South China Sea Before and After Guidelines On The

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    Carlyle Alan Thayer
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    A review of security developments in the South China Sea before and after China and ASEAN adoptd the Guidelines to Implement the Declaration on Conduct of Parties (DOC) in July 2011.

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    Thayer South China Sea Before and After Guidelines on the DOC

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    A review of security developments in the South China Sea before and after China and ASEAN adoptd the Guidelines to Implement the Declaration on Conduct of Parties (DOC) in July 2011.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    78 views13 pages

    Thayer South China Sea Before and After Guidelines On The

    Uploaded by

    Carlyle Alan Thayer
    A review of security developments in the South China Sea before and after China and ASEAN adoptd the Guidelines to Implement the Declaration on Conduct of Parties (DOC) in July 2011.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 13

    China ASEANandthe ChinaASEAN and the SouthChinaSea

    CarlyleA.Thayer PresentationtoAcademiaSinica Presentation to Academia Sinica October7,2011

    Outline
    Chinese assertiveness in first half 2011 Chineseassertivenessinfirsthalf2011 ResponsesbythePhilippinesand Vietnam Guidelines to Implement the DOC GuidelinestoImplementtheDOC PostDOCGuidelinesDevelopments Concludingobservations

    ChineseAssertiveness:Philippines Chinese Assertiveness: Philippines


    Major incursions into Filipino waters MajorincursionsintoFilipinowaters
    FiringatFilipinofishermen(25Feb) MVVeritasVoyager(2March) Unloadingconstructionmaterials(24May)

    MegaOilRig S b i i SubmissionstotheUnitedNations t th U it d N ti

    PhilippinesResponses Philippines Responses


    Diplomatic protests Diplomaticprotests Forcemodernisationforterritorial defence Lobbying ASEAN members LobbyingASEANmembers ReaffirmingtieswiththeU.S. ZoneofPeace,Freedom,Friendshipad Cooperation(ZOPFF/C) p ( )

    ChineseAssertiveness:Vietnam Chinese Assertiveness: Vietnam


    Unilateralfishingbans ChinesefishingcraftoffVietnam g Accostingcommercialexplorationships
    Binh Minh 02 incident (26 May) Minh02incident(26May) VikingII(9June) Third incident? (30 June) Thirdincident?(30June)

    VietnameseResponses Vietnamese Responses


    Special Envoy to China (February) SpecialEnvoytoChina(February) Highlevelmeetings
    ViceChairmanCentralMilitaryCommission GovernmentBoundaryNegotiations Government oundary Negotiations ShangrilaDialoguesidelinediscussions

    VietnameseResponses Vietnamese Responses


    Stiffeningpublicpronouncements Livefireexercises Live fire exercises Risingnationalismpublicprotests SpecialEnvoytoChina(June)

    GuidelinestoImplementDOC Guidelines to Implement DOC


    Implementation on stepbystep Implementationonstepbystep approach Promotedialogueandconsultations Activities or projects should be clearly Activitiesorprojectsshouldbeclearly identified I l Implementationpurelyvoluntary t ti l l t

    GuidelinestoImplementDOC Guidelines to Implement DOC


    Initialactivitiesconfidencebuilding l fd b ld measures consensusamongpartiesconcerned,and d d leadtotheeventualrealizationofaCode ofConduct. of Conduct ExpertsandEminentPersons ReportdirectlytoASEANChina MinisterialMeeting

    Post DOCGuidelinesPhilippines PostDOC Guidelines Philippines


    PresidentAquinovisitsBeijing PushforbindingCodeofConduct P h f bi di C d f C d t Furthermilitarymodernisation y ZoneofPeace,Freedom,Friendshipand Cooperation

    Post DOCGuidelinesVietnam PostDOC Guidelines Vietnam


    AntiChinaprotestsend AntiChina protests end 7th roundbilateraldiscussions 2nd DefenceSecurityDialogue 5th Meeting Joint Steering Committee MeetingJointSteeringCommittee GeneralPoliticalDepartmentHeadvisits China Vietnam Party Chief to visit Beijing VietnamPartyChieftovisitBeijing

    ConcludingObservations Concluding Observations


    Aggressive assertiveness first half 2011 Aggressiveassertivenessfirsthalf2011 AdoptionofDOCGuideline Chinas9dashlinemapofSouthChina Seaclaims Sea claims Counterproductiveresponses ZOPFF/C enclaves Code of Conduct/COC Treaty CodeofConduct/COCTreaty

    China ASEANandthe ChinaASEAN and the SouthChinaSea


    CarlyleA.Thayer PresentationtoAcademiaSinica Presentation to Academia Sinica October7,2011

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