Welcome to P3

Introduction___________________________________________
P3 software offers a new standard for 1d pore pressure prediction in deepwater trends. P3 works well for drilling groups doing well planning and for geophysical groups doing calibration of 2d and 3d pressure prediction tools (e.g. Presgraf). P3 is new. It is not a derivative of Presgraf (also developed by this author). P3 incorporates two new concepts: a gating-depth concept that defines a depth below which pore pressure predictions become problematic; and, a relative pressure concept that describes pressure gradients (PPGo) as a function of depth below sea floor (DBSF). The last concept is key. Intrinsic here is the fundamental principle that water depth (WD) does not affect compaction or the magnitude of overpressure. Also intrinsic is the notion that pore pressure gradient (PPG) as commonly defined from derrick floor does not describe overpressures if WD>0. Basically PPG is a measure of equivalent mud density while PPGo is a measure of overpressures e.g. if PPGo is 1.6 specific gravity (13.34 lbs/gal), pore pressure is 1.6 times higher than normal hydrostatic pressure for freshwater (8.335 lbs/gal). For inland wells PPG is approximately equal to PPGo. A main component of P3 is a spreadsheet called the Stack. Data and pressure predictions are stored in two partitions in the Stack. One partition (the master) stores data referenced to DBSF. It includes formation pressure (FTo), velocity (VEL), leak-off pressure (LOTo), resistivity (RSH), mud density (MW o), overburden gradient (OBGo), and predicted pressure gradient (PPGo). The second partition in the Stack stores a copy of pertinent data referenced to derrick floor (e.g. PPG). Values in the second partition change when the user changes water depth (WD) and/or air gap (AG). The Stack is a powerful feature. It allows the user to compare predicted pore pressure and fracture gradient values to offset FT and LOT data regardless of WD or AG for that data, and it allows the user, after the fact, to project predictions to any water depth or rig height (i.e. any WD or AG). Other features of P3 are: An improved dual-overburden Eaton prediction model. A bound-water and cation-exchange-capacity calculator. An experimental resistivity method for estimating Eaton exponents. A LAS log file reader with multiple shale picking options. A user-defined equation tool for developing and testing models. A customize option for the user to add variables to the Stack. No black boxes. Equations are displayed for scrutiny or modification. P3 is not comprehensive. It does not include correction functions for hydrocarbon, lateral pressure transfer, or true vertical depth (TVD) e.g. all data must be imported as TVD.

About P3_____________________________________________
P3 is a Visual Basic application that runs on top of Microsoft Excel. The engines in Excel are used for calculations, plots, and data storage. System requirements are Excel 2000 or higher. No Excel experience is required. P3 is copyrighted. You may not distribute or create any derivative. For more information contact Martin Traugott (traugott@dunelm.org.uk or www.p3help.com). This software is provided without warranty of any kind, expressed or implied. It is provided for educational use only. It is not supplied to render an engineering service. The author is not liable for damages resulting from any use of this software.

About this Manual _________________________________

This user manual is intentionally concise. The Overview sets out basic P3 workflow. The Tutorial is an auto-instructional guide using examples from the North Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and Canada. The Stack is a glossary of variables in the Stack (study it in detail.) The Appendix is a display of all the menus and panels in P3. References to menu selections are shown as File>New where New is an item in the File menu. The nomenclature is simple. PPG, FPG, and OBG are pore pressure gradient, fracture pressure gradient and overburden gradient, respectively. A prefix (n) indicates normal compaction and a subscript (o) indicates a sea floor reference e.g. nPPGo is a normal hydrostatic pore pressure gradient referenced to the sea floor.

Background Information

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Pore pressure prediction methods are not new. Ham (1966) defined a depth of sealing (retention depth) below which pore pressure increases at a lithostatic rate. Eaton (1976) defined a power-law relationship between relative effective stress in mudstones and interval velocity. Both are used in P3 including a resistivity variant of the Eaton method. An issue with prediction methods is how and why they work, and why they sometimes grossly under-estimate pore pressure. The picture that is emerging from research associated with the development of P3 is a bound water (BW) concept that describes, for mudstones, a retention depth (RD) below which BW has a density slightly less than bulk water and a gating depth (GD) below which BW has a density sharply higher than bulk water. Below the retention depth BW tends to behave as a liquid-solid that can support a lithostatic load. Pore pressure tends to increase at a lithostatic rate (if not depleted by permeable intervals) and velocity tends to respond predictably to effective stress. At the gating depth the BW layer condenses and permeability drops sharply. Below the GD expulsion of dense BW can cause fluid expansion effects and can increase pore pressure. Velocity, affected by BW compressibility and density, looses sensitivity to effective stress below GD. Resistivity is unaffected by compressibility and density. To understand acoustic prediction methods, consider this derivation of the Eaton equation based on Issler (1992) and Holbrook (1993). From Issler, (1-)/(1-n) equals 1/2.19 where n and nVEL are porosity and velocity for normal compaction. (VEL/nVEL) 9.348 for shales where From Holbrook, (OBGo-PPGo)/(nOBGo-nPPGo) equals ((1-)/(1-n)) the term (nOBGo-nPPGo) is effective stress if compaction is normal. Combination and rearrangement gives PPGo=OBGo-(nOBGo-nPPGo)(VEL/nVEL)4.3. In P3, the exponent is usually set to 3 above GD and 5 below GD. Note that keeping OBG and nOBG as two separate unequal variables is an important modification to the standard Eaton equation.

Overview_____________________________________________
To understand basic P3 workflow, work this example from the North Sea. Given a prospect in 50 meters of water, predict pore pressure gradient (PPG) if seismic-derived interval velocity is 3000 m/sec at a depth of 4050 meters. Assume a rig height of 25 meters. Select File>New to open a new project. Choose units. Use defaults for other options. Enter 4050 in column InputD and 3000 in column InputV. Select Stack>Add Input Data to Stack. Set data type and constants. WD=25, AG=0. Select Predict>Pore Pressure. Predict PPGo with the acoustic model. Add to Stack. Select Stack>Associate New WD and AG with Stack. Set AG to 25. Select File>Export Data File. Select PPG. Read PPG (1.8 SI or 15 lbs/gal).

The Tutorial shows this example in more detail. (As a point of interest, a while-drilling correction to the seismic-derived prediction saved a 2 million well-control problem. A more correct pre-drill PPG-derived seal analysis could have saved a 15 million dry hole.)

Tutorial_______________________________________________
Session 1 Opening a New Project and Adding Data
Select File>New to open a new project. Choose Stack units and mode e.g. meters and 3 kg/m . Set seawater and pore water density in specific gravity units. Ignore maximum (Stack) depth; it will automatically adjust when needed.

To add data to a new project, enter depth in column InputD and the associated value (e.g. velocity) in column InputV, as shown below, and select Stack>Add Input Data to Stack. Carefully set Z units, water depth, and air gap for the input data. A more common way to add data to InputD and InputV is to import a P3 (or Presgraf) data file.

To create a P3 data file select File>New and click Cancel. (Cancel allows you to use the new worksheet for data entry, not for a new P3 project.) Enter data. Add set-up information for WD, AG, and Units in format shown. Select the correct file extension when saving (e.g. VEL for velocity). Select File>Close to return to P3 Stack.

Technically, for interval velocity data, you should enter a value in every layer in the Stack, e.g., you should enter a value at 3610, 3620, etc if granularity is 10 meters. As a short cut, enter only the top and bottom, select Stack>Fill Gaps and/or Filter, and choose the VEL curve. The result is shown below. This function is also useful with bulk density data.

Session 2 Predicting Pore Pressure

To predict pore pressure gradient, select Predict>Pore Pressure. As a best practice select the acoustic model and the 1d-Model to compare to as illustrated here. The retention depth for this example is 1050m. Preview the results and select Add to the Stack when satisfied with results. Move the cursor to a data point for the series output.

Kan and Swan (2001) suggest that seismic velocity data might have a variance of 10 percent. To test the effect on PPG, change (VEL) to (0.9*VEL) as shown. The formula is active and the plot will automatically refresh with the new results.

Session 3 - Adjusting Normal Compaction Trends

When predicting pressure gradients, evaluate the diagnostic plot that appears when Predict is selected (as illustrated below). Sediment unloading causes normal compacted velocities to be faster than expected and bulk density to be denser than expected. The example here likely shows the affect of ice unloading. (To display the data shown, import NorthSea.ITT and NorthSea.RHO. Set Stack units to SG.)

To adjust the acoustic or density normal compaction trend (solid red lines) select Stack>Adjust Normal Trends. All plots change interactively as the sliders are moved.

Import pressure measurements (FT) if available. Use to verify pressure predictions as shown here. The FT data do not have to come from well locations with the same water depth or air gap - P3 corrects to a common sea floor datum. Note that the Compare to drop-down box does not list FT as an item unless FT data exist in the Stack.

Import mud weight data (MW) and use it too to validate predictions. For this North Sea case the acoustic model is predicting sharply higher than MW in the shallow section. Either the prediction is incorrect or the well was drilled underbalanced. Understand that MW is not necessarily a good measure of actual gradients. In this North Sea example the tight Tertiary section was likely drilled underbalanced while the deeper Jurassic section was drilled overbalanced.

Also use the 1d Model to validate acoustic-derived predictions. A reasonable practice for the North Sea example is to add acoustic-derived PPG to the Stack for the depth range below 2000 feet and to add the 1d model results for the depth range 0 to 2000 meters.

Session 4 Predicting Fracture Pressure

To predict fracture pressure select Predict>Fracture Pressure after pore pressure has been predicted. Select a stress ratio model. Import leak off test data, if available, and use to validate results as show here for the North Sea example.

Session 5 Working with Data Gaps

The following files (GOM2.ITT and GOM2.RHO) are from the Gulf of Mexico. The Stack units and mode are feet and lbs/gal, respectively. Note that P3 automatically fills missing data gaps between the first depth and last depth in the imported file for RHO data files. And note that the velocity gap above 5200 feet is particularly problematic e.g. should the normal trend line be adjusted to the left to fit the data group around 6000 feet?

Add several files to the Stack for a more complete picture e.g. a second well (GOM1.ITT) is added here for the depth range 0 to 5200. Now the normal trend looks acceptable.

Session 6 Opening LAS Files and Picking Shale Points

Select File>Import Data File>Import LAS File to open a LAS file. Choose up to five curves from the suite of curves as illustrated below. Maximum and minimum values for each curve are listed for identification purposes. Select a shale discrimination curve (the neutron curve was picked here but generally a gamma ray curve is selected.) Adjust the (red) shale cut-off line with the sliders or use the Smart Cut-Off feature. Select ITT or RSH to save a file of shale value. InputV (red diamonds) is a preview of the shale picks.

Session 7 Using User-Defined Equations

To use your own equations select Stack>User-Defined Equation. This function is useful for redefining variables in the Stack or for creating a new customized variable (e.g. the bottom Panel, where the name KT was added to blank cell Q5 in the Stack). Choose Test, to display Min, Max and Avg values generated by the specified equation. (An error message appears if the equation fails.) This function is useful for diagnostics e.g. enter LOT and click Test to determine the maximum LOT value in the Stack. Max will be zero if the Stack contains no values. To save for use in other projects, select Add to Library.

Session 8 Checking Pressure Predictions for Underprediction

Be aware that acoustic and other models can grossly underestimate pressure gradients if the gating depth (GD) has been exceeded. To check for an underprediction scenario, examine RHOB data. If the top of overpressures occurs below GD, bulk density will show little sensitivity to overpressures. This example is from Venture field, Offshore Nova Scotia (Mudford and Best, 1989) and the top of overpressures is at a depth of about 4500 meters.

The pressure prediction shown here (with a standard exponent of 3.0) illustrates the severity of under prediction when compared to actual measured data.

Understand that comparison of FT derived PPG to acoustic-derived is not an absolute check. Because of lateral pressure transfer or hydrocarbon effects, PPG in reservoirs can be higher than that derived for adjacent mudstones. To test for these effects, predict PPG with a resistivity model as illustrated in this Panel. Clearly the resistivity - which is not GD affected - confirms that the previous acoustic prediction is in error.

To correct the acoustic predition for GD affects, change the Eaton exponent to a value of 5.0 or, alternately, use the experimental method in P3 to derive the exponent. Select Predict>Experimental Options as illustrated below. Basically, P3 compares VEL/nVEL to cRSH/nRSH i.e. for the experimental method to have meaning the normal compaction trend (nRSH) has to be adjusted correctly. Note that unlike nVEL, the default value for nRSH is almost never good enough.

Session 9 Using Bound Water and Cation Exchange Capacity

To predict BW and CEC, import resistivity and slowness data for the same intervals and select Predict>Bound Water and Cation Exchange Capacity. If CEC is fairly invariant with depth, the whole interval has similar clay chemistry. If BW is less than about 0.4, there is no indication of a gating depth and pressure predictions should be dependable. (The top Panel is from the Gulf of Mexico example and the bottom from the previous Canadian example.)

If CEC varies and if BW is greater than about 0.6, pore pressure predictions are problematic. BW values above 0.6 tend to indicate a gating depth. Factors that affect GD are temperature, iron content in the clays, porosity, and water chemistry.

Stack ____________________________________________
Select View>View Stack to display the Stack. For online documentation move the cursor to cells marked by a small red triangle in the upper right corner.

The variables in the master partition are described here. Some columns are stackable i.e. new data added to a cell are merged with old data. Other columns are not i.e. new data replaces old. Stack granularity, units, seawater density, and maximum depth are set when a project is initialised (e.g. 10 meters, lbs/gal, 8.7, and 5000 meters, respectively). DBSF (Depth Below Sea Floor) is sediment thickness. Sea floor is the absolute depth reference. If imported data have depths deeper than the maximum DBSF, the stack size will automatically increase. PPGo is Pore Pressure Gradient referenced to sea floor. PPGo is a direct measure of overpressures (and equal to equivalent mud density for dual-density drilling systems). To predict PPGo, select Predict>Pore Pressure. Choose a prediction model e.g. Acoustic, 1d Model, Resistivity, or User Defined. Use Compare for comparison to MW or FT data. Note that this column is not stackable i.e. when new PPGo data are added to the Stack; all previous values are deleted for that specified depth range. FPGo is Fracture Pressure Gradient reference to sea floor. To predict FPGo select Predict>Fracture Pressure. Use Compare for comparison to LOT or OBG data. This column is not stackable i.e. a new prediction (for the same interval) and deletes the last prediction. You can, however, make predictions with different models for different intervals. nPPGo is normal (hydrostatic) pore pressure. The default is pore water density (set when the Stack is initialised). Edit as needed, e.g., set to seawater density near the seafloor. OBGo is overburden pressure gradient. OBGo is the average bulk density, RHOB. (See the formula in the above Panel.) nOBGo is overburden pressure gradient for normal compaction. This is a new term introduced by Traugott and Swarbrick (2002). It is used in the Eaton equation as and offers a modest improvement in pressure predictions. nOBGo is the average nRHOB. RHOB is sediment bulk density. Be aware that every cell in the column must contain a non-zero value so that OBGo is correctly computed. The column is populated at initialisation of the Stack with a default value of 1.955 SG at the sea floor and with an exponential increase to 2.7 SG at infinite depth. The default is for a sand/shale mix and no uplift. Use it with discretion. Import several density files to get a better statistical relation. Note that any gaps in the imported file will be linearly interpolated. nRHOB is sediment bulk density for normal compaction. The default value is the same as that for RHOB. To adjust interactively to fit data, select Stack>Set VEL, RSH, RHOB Trends. Edit nRHOB values where there is thick salt or carbonate sections. FTo is formation pore pressure converted to a gradient with a DBSF reference. This column is stackable. FT data also appear in column OverP where the integral component is overpressure above normal hydrostatic, and the fractional component is WD/1000. Ignore column OverP. It is for administration use only.

MWo is mud density converted to a DBSF reference. Do not confuse with equivalent mud density PPGo. This column is stackable such that mud data from several wells can be merged into a composite file. P3 does not track which data comes from which well but a header at the top of the Stack does keeps a chronology of imported files with the associated WD of each individual file. LOTo is leak off test data converted to a DBSF reference. To add LOT data, import a LOT data file or import a MW file with embedded LOT data. For MW files, P3 reads positive values as MW and negative values as LOT. VEL is acoustic interval velocity. All acoustic data added to the Stack are converted to velocity regardless if imported as slowness, interval velocity, or stacking velocity. This column is stackable. When working with seismic data, a good practice is to import several records each side of the shot point of interest. (If at least one cell in the VEL column contains a non-zero value, pore pressure can be predicted. nVEL is interval velocity for normal compaction i.e. normal pore pressure. The default velocity at the seafloor (VELo) is given in cell AE4. Compaction rate (VCR) is given in cell AD4. There are three options for describing nVEL versus depth - linear, exponential and logarithmic. Select Stack>Set VEL, RSH and RHOB Trends to interactively adjust VELo and VCR, or to change options. RSH is resistivity in mudstones. RSH is affected strongly by cation exchange capacity, temperature and the thickness of bound water layer. RSH is more sensitive to effective stress than bulk density or velocity. Resistivity is not affected by bulk (or BW) density. cRSH is temperature corrected resistivity. See Traugott (1998) for more details on the correction procedure. nRSH is corrected mudstone resistivity for normal compaction i.e. normal pressure. The value at the seafloor (RSHo) is given in cell AH4. The compaction rate (RCR) is given in cell AG4. Select Stack>Set VEL, RSH and RHOB Trends to adjust RSHo and RCR. BHT is bottom-hole formation temperature. BHT is required for cRSH, CEC and BW computations. The default value tends to be satisfactory but import a BHT file for detailed resistivity-based projects. GR is gamma ray. GR is not directly used in P3 but has application in user-defined equations such as determining stress ratios as a function of rock type. X is the (Eaton) exponent in the acoustic method for predicting PPGo. The default is 3.0. Change to 5.0 below the gating depth. There is an experimental option to determine X if resistivity data is available. k is horizontal to vertical effective stress ratio. The default value is a Gulf of Mexico deepwater trend (Eaton and Eaton, 1997). There is an experimental option to determine the stress ratio if LOT and FT data exist in the same layer in the Stack. PHIsh is mudstone porosity. This column is automatically populated for cells where VEL data exists. The default equation is Issler (1992). PHIsh values are used only in the CEC and BW prediction modules. When a data point is added to a cell in a stackable column, the background colour indexes by one (from white to yellow to orange to red). The index is used to average the next value e.g. if the index is 4, the next cell value will be (4*OLD+NEW)/5. When deleting stackable columns, use P3 clear functions, not Excel clear-contents. The output columns in the Stack are described here. All except BW and CEC change interactively when AG and/or WD is changed. Do not directly edit these columns.

DEPTH is TVD below derrick floor. DEPTH equals DBSF+WD+AG. All plots in P3 are plotted with DEPTH as the Y-axis. To plot data versus DBSF, switch off Y=Depth when selecting View>Plot Selection. PPG is PPGo converted to equivalent mud density using WD and AG to define mud column height. Do not edit this column. It is linked to PPGo as shown above. FPG is FPGo converted to equivalent mud density. The same comments as above apply to FPGo. This above Panel FPG expressed as lbs/gal. BW is bound water fraction. To predict BW, select Predict>Bound Water and Cation Exchange Capacity. Values are calculated for stack layers that with VEL and RSH data. CEC is cation exchange capacity. CEC is computed as part of BW. Use CEC as a diagnostic tool to detect anomalous clay types that affect pressure predictions. Po is relative pore pressure. Po equals PPGo/nPPGo. Po is a dimensionless number (sometimes called an abnormality factor) that defines the magnitude of overpressures e.g. in the above Panel, pore pressure is 1.52 higher than normal hydrostatic (for a column height equal to DBSF). PPG in contrast is only 1.26 times higher than normal hydrostatic. Basically PPG is equivalent mud density and Po (or PPGo) is relative pressure gradient. Ambiguity comes because PPG is commonly used as an indicator of overpressures. Clearly that works if WD=0 and AG<<DEPTH when PPG is about equal to PPGo. nPPG is nPPGo converted to equivalent mud density. Low values near the sea floor are an artefact of AG (nPPG is zero at sea level). FT is FTo converted to equivalent mud density. Use to test the validity of pressure predictions. Note that centroid or hydrocarbon effects can cause gradients in mudstones to be different than that in adjacent reservoirs. MW is MW o converted to WD and AG conditions. Do not edit this column directly e.g. to subtract an overbalance make the correction to MW o. LOT is LOTo converted to the WD and AG conditions. Use to test the validity of fracture pressure predictions. User Space is for custom operations. For example, to create a column that contains slowness, type a descriptive name (e.g. ITT) in a blank column. Select Stack>UserDefined Equation. Enter IF(VEL>0,10^6/VEL. Select Apply and choose ITT. More blank columns can be added by right clicking a column header.

Appendix Main Menu Bar, Panels and Dialogue Boxes

P3 References_________________________________________
Eaton, B.A., 1976, Graphical method predicts geopressures worldwide, World Oil, July 1976, p. 100-104. Eaton, B.A. and Eaton, T.L., 1997, Fracture gradient prediction for the new generation, World Oil, October Issue, p. 93-100. Issler, D.R., 1992, A new approach to shale compaction and stratigraphic restoration, Beaufort-Mackenzie basin and Mackenzie corridor, northern Canada, The American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulletin, v. 76, n. 8, p. 1170-1189. Ham, H.H.,1966, A method of estimating formation pressures from Gulf Coast well logs, Transactions Gulf Coast Association of Geological Societies, v. XVI, p. 185-187. Holbrook, P., 1999, A simple closed form force balanced solution for pore pressure overburden and the principal effective stresses in the Earth, Marine and Petroleum Geology, v. 16, p. 303-319. Kan, T.K. and Swan, H.W., 2001, Geopressure prediction from automatically-derived seismic velocities, Geophysics, v. 66, n. 6, November-December, p. 1937-1946. Mudford, B. S. and Best, M.E., 1989, Venture Gas Field, Offshore Nova Scotia: Case Study of Overpressuring in Region of Low Sedimentation Rate, The American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulletin, v. 73, n. 11, November 1989, p. 1383-1395. Traugott, M., 1997, Pore/fracture pressure determinations in deep water, Deepwater Technology supplement to World Oil, August 1997, p. 68-70. Traugott, M.O. and Swarbrick. R.E. 2002, Dimensionless Gradients Applied to Pore Pressure Prediction a New Standard, CSEG Recorder, September 2002, p. 79-80. Copyright 2004, Martin Traugott